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woodbinepmi
09-02-2017, 02:00 PM
Hong Kong for September 3rd at Sha Tin. Inaugural race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees, cloudy with squally showers and thunder-storms. Wind: West 10 mph.
Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170903_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170903_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=1&meeting=101421 (https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=1&meeting=101421)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 :8: Yourthewonforme (5-2) Comes out of a slow race and is still winless after 32 races in Hong Kong.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

Horses that have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4:Seasons Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 :5: Fairy Twins (3-1)
Race 8 :2: Hang’s Decision ( 6-1) and :6: Solar Hei Hei ( 7-1)
Race 10 :11: Rattan ( 10-1)



Last race watch list horse:
Race 9 :6: Fifty Fifty (3-1) Drew the outside post in his initial race in Hong Kong, was rushed up into contention soon after the break. Was forced three wide in the turn uncovered, switched leads smoothly as soon as he straightened up in the stretch, dug down but was outrun by a neck versus a Size/Moreira odds on favourite winner. Now draws the two hole.


Key Play:
Race 3 :2: Magic Legend (3-1) Threw his head up at the start forcing him to a little farther back than he likes, became rank on the backside soon afterwards. On the turn while racing three wide became unbalanced when a rival in front of him was forced to check up. Was eventually outclassed by Thewizordofoz in the stretch. May catch the high weight favourite Blizzard in here using this as a prep for a graded race down the road.

Longshots:
Race 5 :11: Telecom Boom (9-1)
Race 7 :10: Sunny Dragon ( 11-1)
Race 10 :10: Club Life ( 31-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases and general observations on the day.

cj
09-03-2017, 12:29 PM
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

GMB@BP
09-03-2017, 12:37 PM
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

When Kent was young in socal, 91-93 it was the same way, seemed like he would take speed and make them closers and the pace collapsed, closers on the lead with no pace and they would win. It was pretty amazing.

woodbinepmi
09-04-2017, 02:36 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

steveb
09-04-2017, 06:12 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

would you care to enlarge on the what and the how for the bit i have bolded?

your par (classes/speeds??) are relatively close to mine it appears.
i have more than one figure depending on the group for the stakes races
-----------ME DIFF
Class 1 107 93.5 13.5
Class 2 104 91 13
Class 3 100 86 14
Class 4 96 81 15
Class 5 92 77.5 14.5

the class 1 and 2 races tend to officially be scaled down more than the 3/4/5 which is probably why i underate them compared to you.

i reckon the track was 4 fast though!

all hypothetical for me as i don't study them these days, but i reckon race 1 and 3 are deservedly much faster than expected for that grade.
and i would not have adjusted any of the speeds for this meet.

betovernetcapper
09-04-2017, 11:01 PM
Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the :3:
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.:)

biggestal99
09-05-2017, 01:41 PM
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

Chris McCarron too...prolly too young to remember him riding Md.

Allan

Nitro
09-05-2017, 03:19 PM
Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the :3:
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.:)
Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody! :ThmbUp:

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.

However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on tote-board action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful. Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers.com/gamblers/horse-racing/william-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter

INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.

BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.

Dahoss9698
09-05-2017, 04:24 PM
Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

:lol::lol::lol:

Hong Kong Turf
09-05-2017, 05:36 PM
Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

thaskalos
09-05-2017, 05:49 PM
Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

:lol::lol::lol:

You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

Dahoss9698
09-05-2017, 06:04 PM
You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

:lol:

You're asking for it now.

woodbinepmi
09-05-2017, 07:52 PM
Hong Kong for September 6th at Happy Valley. Second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a chance of showers. Wind: SW 4 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15m PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170906_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170906_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)


Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 :6: Bo Duke (13-1) Race *746 The 6th, 8th and 10th place runners have come back and won their next races.

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Planet Giant (7-1)
Race 4 :4: Flying Monkey (4-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :7: Fine With Me (3-1) Was taken back after the start, became rank going into the 1st turn while racing on the rail. Moved to the 6 path in the stretch while being blocked, closed well on the outside but unable to reach the lone speed winner. You have to go back four races to find a number fast enough to win at this class though.

Race 4 :8: Dr Race (4-1) Leaped out of the gate losing 2 lengths, settled 2 wide then moved to the middle of the track and closed well after getting on his proper lead, just missed out against a rival who had a much easier trip.

Race 6 :9: Cheer Win (5-1) Drew the 11 hole going 6 furlongs at Happy Valley, was in a little tight running down the backside unable to get over was forced 3 wide in the turn uncovered, moved out a little wider in the lane and was just beaten a nose by the favourite who saved ground on the rail.

Key Play:
Race 6 :9: Cheer Win (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 7 :3: Kyrus Bowser (15-1)
Race 8 :10: Perpetual Joyance(11-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

AltonKelsey
09-05-2017, 08:36 PM
You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

kevb
09-05-2017, 09:06 PM
Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

betovernetcapper
09-05-2017, 09:34 PM
Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

DITTO
I'm not sure I can make a commitment to get up at 5am for the Happy Valley races, given that I slept till noon today, but will be betting Sha Tin for sure. I'm sure I could set up the computer to sound an wake up bell when someone bet a lot on :3:. Maybe I could develop some kind of App for my smart phone. It could be called (Drum Roll) The Nitro Alarm.:)

Seriously thanks for the hard work.

Hong Kong Turf
09-06-2017, 12:32 AM
As I mentioned before the Sha Tin card, the emphasis of my posts will be on analysis of Hong Kong horse racing, rather than on selections. I’ll analyze the races through the lens of Hong Kong Turf past performances, but the insights here should be valuable no matter how you choose to analyze Hong Kong.

The race of the week this week is Race 7 from Happy Valley, a fascinating, deep Class 3, with many live contenders who look like they could be ready to win.

The par Speed Figure for this class is 91, and most of the runners here have met or exceeded that number recently enough to be dangerous. This may be a race to circle as a key race for horses coming back next out against thinner fields.

Analysis of Top Contenders (in Program # Order)

#1 Unicorn had a nightmarish trip under a low % apprentice last out, losing a shoe in the process, but prior to that had been consistently cashing checks at this class and distance. The hard knocking type will be coming late and is a threat to win this on his day. Currently at 11-1, he offers some value.

#3 Kyrus Bowser is lightly raced and improving, and his first 3 speed figures suggest he belongs in this class. Despite finishing 7th, 5th, and 7th in his first 3 starts, he wasn’t really beaten by much. Today he cuts back from 2000M to 1650M. Optimists say that will have him finishing more strongly; pessimists will say this is a tune-up for next time going longer. Can’t fault the optimists at 14-1.

#5 Bank on Red is another lightly raced horse whose last races were better than they look at first glance. He has rallied belatedly but with sharp final 400M times of under 23 seconds each race, and has been well-backed both times out. He loses Moreira here – never a confidence booster – but as the only 3YO in the race, he still has time to put it all together for John Size. Improvement is expected, and he is another contender.

Thunder Stomp (#6) is the early favorite. The 6YO gelding finished 3rd 4 out 5 starts to end last season, and gets the big rider switch to Moreira. Wong, a low percentage apprentice may have taken Thunder Stomp out of his best game last out riding aggressively to the lead after a middling start. The trainer Tsui won 2 races on the opening card at Sha Tin and is capable of having one ready first out at the season. Still, the 6 minor finishes to the 1 win ratio is a bit concerning for a horse who always gets bet hard, and I’m not convinced this is the best spot to pay the Moreira premium. Let’s try to do better.

#8 Imperial Seal is a very interesting runner here based off trainer stats. He is coming off of a 4 win season (all in Class 4), and now moves up to Class 3 for the 1st start of the season for Casper Fownes – a tremendous angle for the trainer (Up in Class off a Win: 29% win %/49% ROI). Purton sticks, adding to the appeal. With all that said, Imperial Seal needs to continue his upward trajectory to threaten these, and is a bit light in the speed figure department. Currently at 6.0, the value may not be there for this “wise guy horse.”

#9 Kiram is tough to knock. He came off a long layoff to win moving up in class 2 races back, and then followed it up with a creditable enough 4th to close out the season. The trainer Ferraris is 2-for-72 with his first starters of the meet, but that’s about his overall average, and he had a horse run 2nd on opening day. He fits at the level and is another contender with Teetan up.

#10 High Volatility is a very interesting, speedy runner in this spot. 3 back, he ran the top speed figure in the field (104) running 2nd behind Victory Boy, but ended the season with a dreadful, wide trip from the 12 post in which he couldn’t get the lead. Draw a line through that non-effort and he has the look of a prime contender for Lui, who has some above average trainer angles for this spot. The bad news? He has to do it from the 11 post. The good news? He’s currently 20-1 and has the speed to clear.

#11 Go Go Win moves up in class off a wire-to-wire score under the “Poon Train” Matthew Poon. Hard to knock a horse who has been in the exacta 5 straight, but he’ll need to do a bit better here, and not convinced he can grab the lead again with High Volatility in the race. Currently at 10-1, I might demand a bit more value before pulling the trigger.

Who do you like?

Alwaysonpoint36
09-07-2017, 01:32 PM
Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

Been away for awhile
Did he really post a $2k loss :D:D:headbanger:

Link pls for the love of Christ

steveb
09-07-2017, 09:23 PM
Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

race 4 was only about 3 points slow imo.
it was about 22 slower than race 1 however.
NO manual adjustment, as i want mine to be speed and nothing else.
pace would be handled separately, but that said it's rare for the pace to be very fast or very slow.
too many top riders there ensuring that others don't get away with murder.

race 10 was the only one that went too fast i think, where the leaders got the stitch.
r6 to a lesser extent.
in those cases the one that pace the race best invariably win.

woodbinepmi
09-08-2017, 05:08 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

steveb
09-08-2017, 06:53 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

my computers' opinion of the speeds.....

and go the tigers!!

woodbinepmi
09-09-2017, 12:10 AM
Yes the 2nd was very slow, most likely due to the slow early pace. Track went slow in the middle of the card then quickened up a little for the last 3. As you know it will do the at the Valley at night.

It was real hard getting up this morning at 4.30 to watch the Tigers but well worth it. Played fantastic defence in the 4th quarter.

YELLOW AND BLACK!!!!!!

Thinking real hard about buying a plane ticket IF (don't want to jinx it) they make the Grand Final. Have been waiting 35 LONG years.

woodbinepmi
09-09-2017, 08:44 PM
Hong Kong for September 10th at Sha Tin. Third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 40 % chance of showers. Wind: SSW 10 mph
Post time: 12.35am ET, 9.35m PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170910_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170910_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 11 Seven Luck (7-2) Is most likely the chalk because of Moreira, has yet to run in the money in his 12 race career and draws the outside post in the 1,000 metre sprint.

Race 4 11 Furious Pegasus (7-2) Draws the 13 hole in a Class 5 race which usually means doom. Has still not finished in the money in 20 races, there are others in here that have run much faster than him at better odds.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 2 Industrialist Way (8-1)
Race 4 2 Good Method (5-1)
Race 5 8 The Full Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 8 Solar Hei Hei (8-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 5 2 Silverfield (4-1) Was able to save ground on the turn but was blocked while looking for room in the stretch, extended himself well when given room only to miss by a half-length at the wire. Galloped out past the winner after the finish.

Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1) Broke a length slow then clipped heals , rushed up into contention soon afterward to settle in a few lengths back, tired late but should like to go a little longer.

Race 7 3 Winner’s Way (2-1) Became very rank entering the turn while racing 2 wide in the turn forced his way out early in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Thewizardofoz.

Race 7 6 Jolly Banner (13-1) Got the luck of the draw by getting the rail, saved ground but when ready to run was blocked with nowhere to go in the stretch. Closed well by weaving thru when able to find some room, but outclassed by the eventual winner.

Race 10 11 Pakistan Baby (6-1) Raced a little closer than normal, was in tight on the turn. Whyte had a strangle hold of him in the stretch while searching for room, finished well in tight room galloped out past the winner after the wire.

Key Play:
Race 9 2 Pingwu Spark (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 3 Unique Happiest (18-1)
Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1)
Race 10 4 Joyful Moments (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Turf
09-10-2017, 01:09 AM
Today’s Race of the Day from Sha Tin is the featured 7th Race: the Class 1 Kwantung Handicap Cup over 1400M. It’s a solid field top-to-bottom, with a couple who are running back quickly on 1 week’s rest. In the early betting, Winner’s Way and Magic Legend are taking most of the action – let’s see if there’s anyone else in here that can create some value for us.

#1 Horse of Fortune – A hard knocking 7 year old with 6 wins never gets much help from his handicap, but has proven his ability to carry an impost and beat some of the best horses in Hong Kong. He disappointed on closing day in Sha Tin, but prior to that, took a Grade 3 and finished a good 2nd with a 102 speed figure in a class 1. From a trainer statistics perspective, the outlook isn’t great with Millard low percentage off this kind of layoff and in the first start of the season. Still, on his day, he has a shot in the 15-1 to 20-1 range

#2 Romantic Touch – Moreira takes the mount, so we have to take notice. He mixed it up with the very best in Hong Kong last season, but didn’t come away with any wins, and is still just 2 for 36 lifetime. It seems fair to wonder if he might be tailing off a bit at 7 years old, but he does have the tactical speed to be well placed for Moreira. Tony Cruz’s trainer stats are fair for this spot, but it doesn’t quite look like his best race is good enough to beat the top choices in here, and with the Moreira premium, he feels like an underlay.

#3 Winner’s Way – The current favorite put things together late in the season, and progressed from Class 3 to Class 1 by the end of the season. He dominated a Class 2, then went wire to wire again for a Class 1. On June 25th, only a freak performance by The Wizard of Oz prevented him from scoring his first stakes race. In terms of speed figures, he is the rare Hong Kong horse who can bang out triple digit figures, and may find a comfortable lead for Purton. As mentioned for Romantic Touch, Cruz can get them ready early in the meet. Rock solid and deserving favorite.

#4 Magic Legend – The 2nd choice in the betting ran a great race one week ago for John Moore and Tommy Berry. Though he was 4th, the early indications are that that race was live (2nd place finisher Blizzard is off to Japan to compete in a G1). As a southern hemisphere 4 year old, he may be improving and peaking for this. 2-back, he was a half-length behind Winner’s Way at this class and distance, but picks up 7 pounds against that effort. Then there is this stat: when starting a horse on less than 10 days rest, John Moore is 6-for-24, with a 102% flat bet ROI. If he improves at all on last week’s start, he’s a bi danger and would be no surprise.

#5 Marvel Hero – Try this: cross out this runner’s last start, where he went 2200 and faltered in the stretch: it wouldn’t be difficult to make a case for him being a rapidly improving late bloomer. 2 back, he absolutely destroyed a Class 1 field (albeit with a light weight) and earned a 106 speed figure, which would probably be good enough for this. With that said, he likely wants more ground than he’ll get here, and Casper Fownes using the low % apprentice adds to the perception that this may be a prep for something longer next out. Still, he’ll be 25-1 or longer, and it seems like a mistake to toss him completely.

#6 Jolly Banner – Here’s another hard knocking contender who enters this off of a nice campaign last season. He also exits the 6/25 Grade 3, and while he ran behind Winners’ Way and Magic Legend that day, he had a bit of trouble in the stretch and wasn’t beaten by much. He’s fairly lightly raced for a 6YO, and could be figuring things out. He may a shade behind the top 2, but has a favorable weight assignment and rates a genuine upset glance.

#7 Supreme Profit – Currently the longest shot on the board, this 7 year old won a grade 3 last season and is a 9 time winner in Hong Kong. After the G3 win in February, the form took a turn for the worse, however, with declining speed figures and series on non-competitive finishers. Add to that that this race looks well below his preferred, and he has the look of an outsider.

#8 Solar Hei Hei – The popular runner steps up from Class 2 for this and picks up hot apprentice Matthew Poon and so will carry just 106 pounds. You don’t win 7 of 27 by accident, and there are a few speed figures on the page that would be competitive in this, but this does seem like a stretch on his overall class. He ran a solid 2nd in a class 2 just a week ago, but these are much tougher. Even with the feather weight tonight, he looks in over his head.

Who do you like?

betovernetcapper
09-10-2017, 02:11 AM
After race 2, I am planning on visiting a Voodoo Preacher Sunday & buying a J Moreira doll and about 100 pins. :)

woodbinepmi
09-10-2017, 02:28 AM
Send me the bill!

betovernetcapper
09-10-2017, 02:40 AM
LOL after the :8:won I'm just buying 50 pins :)

kevb
09-10-2017, 03:46 AM
Wishing a good journey to Woodbine's two HTW horses

betovernetcapper
09-10-2017, 06:41 PM
Lost 1st two to Moreira, won the 3rd, & lost the 4th to #13 who was completely under my radar. At that point the Valium started to kick in & I made a big win bet on Woodpine's key pick 2 Pingwu Spark in the 9th & went to bed.

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20170910&no=09&lang=eng

Given the results, I don't feel right sending the bill for the J Moreira Voodoo doll & 50 pins to Woodpine. I should make a religious donation every 1/2 century or so & this is it. :)

woodbinepmi
09-10-2017, 11:25 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Gamblor
09-12-2017, 05:08 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Top analysis, thanks very much. Question - what are your speed figure adjustments? Is how many pounds you think it takes to impact 1L at each distance?

woodbinepmi
09-12-2017, 09:17 PM
Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.

woodbinepmi
09-12-2017, 10:08 PM
Hong Kong for September 13th at Happy Valley. Fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 50 % chance of showers. Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170913_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170913_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 :5: Dr Listening (3-1) Is running for a new barn since leaving John Size. Is a very consistent racer but going up from Class 3 to Class 2 is a nice jump in class and drawing the 11 hole in the short run to the first turn may be little tough for his first time against a tough Class 2 field.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :5: Emperor Victory (13-1)
Race 5 :5: Sparkling Sword (15-1)
Race 6 :5: Ten Flames (12-1)
Race 7 :2: Extremely Fun (30-1)
Race 7 :4: Back In Black (16-1)
Race 7 :11: Bold Elegance (22-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :1: Smart Boy (3-1) Raced in the rear moved from the 2 path to the 3 path half-way thru the turn, was blocked by three runners in front of him early in the stretch, moved to the outside and closed well but move was started when the winner was finding room near the rail.

Race 7 :6: Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Race 8 :2: Doyeni (8-1) Broke well on the rail, settled in behind the first flight, was asked at the 600 metre mark but was forced down back to the rail entering the stretch while looking for room. Looked hesitant to go thru with a whip being used right in front of his face. Closed well when able to find room.

Key Play:
Race 8 :2: Doyeni (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :4: The Show (13-1)
Race 4 :2: Iron Boy (10-1)
Race 6 :9: Magnetism (5-1)
Race 7 :1: Breeders’ Star (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Turf
09-12-2017, 11:42 PM
#2 Doyeni must have been the best horse in Hong Kong not to win a race last season. While he mustered only a 3rd place from 4 starts, he was flying late in every start, missing by a length or less against top milers Booming Delight and Eastern Express on 2 separate occasions. He has shown the ability to consistently eclipse a triple digit speed figure, even under a significant impost as he’ll deal with today (under 128 pounds, he is the effective high weight after #1 Packing Dragon drops 7 pounds under apprentice Matthew Poon). In his only performance last season in which earned below a 99 speed figure, his jockey, Kei Chiong earned a suspension for questionable riding tactics in the stretch.

On the downside, he will need to win from barrier #10, and jockey Douglas Whyte has yet to hit the board this season. The idea is that he will be able to get over and settle without losing too much ground before uncorking a huge rally. With a reasonable run he should inhale these in the straight. Currently at odds of 9.1, he’s a terrific bet at a big price.

Gamblor
09-13-2017, 08:03 AM
Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.


Yeah but I mean the table you list in your posts with adjustments for each distance, to what does it refer?

Gamblor
09-13-2017, 08:22 AM
My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7
R5 think #11 is big overs, and the 10 for that matter, 11-10-1-2-3
R6 I'm drawn to Magnetism, will be backing it, 9-2-1-10-4
R7 too tough 6-11-5-12-10
R8 I'll be asleep by this time too tough anyway 10-6-11-5-9

Gamblor
09-13-2017, 09:00 AM
My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1


2 wins from 9, quinella pays 40/1. :jump::p:ThmbUp::):pound::rant::coffee::headbanger :

Did I say the race was too tough? I meant too easy!! :headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::jump:

Gamblor
09-13-2017, 09:50 AM
My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1 - 2,9 quinella 40/1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11 11 dead heats for first at 40/1
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7 E-super bolts in

Gee... this game isn't too hard, is it? Why's there so many threads on here about this and that, millions of discussions about speed figures and blah blah blah, don't worry about that garbage, just follow the Gamblor mail!!

Gamblor
09-13-2017, 10:24 AM
R5 sends me back to earth with a thud.

Magnetism has drawn out all the money in my account, to have on it the win. Come on!! :headbanger::bang::headbanger:

kevb
09-13-2017, 10:52 AM
Good pickin' Gamblor. You and Poon are hot tonight.

kevb
09-13-2017, 10:59 AM
Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!

kevb
09-13-2017, 11:21 AM
Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!

He finished last at 15-1

woodbinepmi
09-14-2017, 03:06 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Mid-pack
Key Races: *747, *763, *767, *807, 15
Notes for the day: Big day for bug boy Poon with 4 wins, not so much for Moreria who is held scoreless.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #3 London City – Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the runner (eventual winner) under him came off the rail looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short to the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 3 #8 Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Race 6 #9 Magnetism – Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Good Companion – Had to really dig down to get up with a weight break from the hot apprentice jock while beating a very average Class 4 field in an average time, has to move up now to Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (029): 98#
2nd (030): 96
3rd (031): +93
4th (032): 99
5th (033): -98
6th (034): -100
7th (035): 100
8th (036): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I. Hong Kong will be racing Saturday this week instead of their normal Sunday race card.

woodbinepmi
09-15-2017, 06:41 PM
Hong Kongfor September 15th at Sha Tin. Fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 92 Degrees partly clouds. Wind: WNW 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170916_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 3 Good Method (3-1) Has only 1 win out of 40 lifetime races, has a tendency to run second and third.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1) Race 15 the third and fourth place runners have come back and won.
Race 2 London Master (13-1) Comes out of the same race as #4 Fish N’ Chips.
Race 4 4 Foxbat (7-1) Race *773 The third and seventh place won next out.
Race 6 4 Winaswewish (49-1) Also comes out of race 15.
Race 8 1 Turf Sprint (5-1) Race *807 The third and sixth place runners won while the winner came back and ran second next time out.



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1)
Race 4 2 Ambitious Speedy (8-1)
Race 5 7 Good Fit (8-1)
Race 6 5 The Full Bloom (17-1)
Race 9 9 Master Viking (15-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 1 Best Tango (12-1) Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 5 8 Sure Peace (8-1) Broke a length slow the was asked but Teetan had no response, moved to the three path on the backside while racing in the back of the field moved out to the 6 path entering the stretch did finish well but never a challenge for the easy winner.

Race 8 11 Travel Emperor (6-1) Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 10 6 Winston’s Lad (7-1) Broke well but had to be taken up soon after, moved to three wide entering the stretch had to keep moving further outside for room to run started really getting at it the last 150 metres and just missed out by a length… Should like the added distance here and the draw closer to the rail.

Key Play:
Race 9 11 Top Beautiful (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 7 Empire Star (22-1)
Race 9 6 Ace King (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Turf
09-16-2017, 12:33 AM
Here is tonight's analysis of Race 1 from Sha Tin.

Race 1 is a 1200M Class 4. The field looks top heavy, but may have a vulnerable favorite and perhaps some live longshots to spice up the exotics.

#1 Mordicus brings a lot of speed to the table, and earned the top speed figure in the field in the Sha Tin finale over the same class and distance. He was overhauled in that one, finishing 6th, but was only beaten less than 3 lengths, in a race in which the winner was 2 lengths clear. Throw out the race 2 back, when he was taken out of his game with a slow break. As the high weight once again, he has a positive “bet-on” angle, switching from Kei Chiong to Zac Purton, who is overdue to get going. Solid today, and could be tough to catch in the opener as the 2nd choice.

#2 None Other has some similar form to Mordicus. While Mordicus probably is faster from the gate, None Other also has a the speed to be competitive early, and from the 1 hole is liable to gun for it early. He was 2nd last out, but earned a much slower speed figure than Mordicus (72 vs. 88), and the last several figures of last season were all below par for the level. That said, he gets the biggest jockey change in the business, going from the low percentage Jack Wong to the dominant Joao Moreira. Dangerous, but overbet as the chalk.

#3 My Honey, #4 The Legend, and #5 Lightning Missile have all been non-competitive while ice cold on the board in their 1st/2nd starts, and none look competitive today.

#6 Money Winner is worth a look underneath at a big price in this spot. While the form isn’t much on the surface, he earned respectable speed figures in his first two starts (77 and 79), before encountering significant trouble last out. The trainer Tsui is off to a blistering start, although Douglas Whyte, a former champion rider in Hong Kong is still seeking his first winner. He’ll be flying late, and shouldn’t be written off.

#7 Indigenous Star is another long one in here who is at least a little bit interesting underneath. He figures to picking up some pieces late, and the relatively lightly raced 4 year old had improving form at the end of last season, finishing up with a sub 23 second final quarter to finish 4th last out. Gets in at 116 pounds with Leung up, and is a tad interesting.

#8 Joyful Forever would be a surprise in here, as he hasn’t made much of an impression in 4 lifetime starts. Appears destined for Class 5.

#9 Rewarding Flyer is a contender for Moore and Berry. A 2-time winner last season, he took a Class 5 wire-to-wire 3 back, and then had a nice finish on opening day at Sha Tin this season to finish 2nd. If he is able to build on that performance at all (and avoid a wide trip), he may be well positioned to run down the #1 and #2 in the lane. Value at 3rd choice.

# 10 Victor Emperor is at least a little interesting here, as he makes his 2nd start off the long layoff. In the spring he ran a few races that would be good enough to take this, including a Class 5 score. He was injured in April after taking a ton of money, and then jogged behind the field in the comebacker on opening day. He’ll be a big price, and if he can regain his fitness, isn’t impossible.

Gamblor
09-16-2017, 01:29 AM
My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7

ronsmac
09-16-2017, 08:47 PM
No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?

Parkview_Pirate
09-16-2017, 11:01 PM
No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?

No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).

fellowmen
09-17-2017, 12:32 AM
My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7

wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night

Gamblor
09-17-2017, 07:02 AM
wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night

The magic tea leaves know...

ronsmac
09-17-2017, 07:30 PM
No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.

fellowmen
09-18-2017, 04:10 AM
It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.
is is possible to bet directly into their pools using a foreign website so we can get in on their monster pools? like the triple trio or the six up or the Hong Kong jockey clubs site

lansdale
09-18-2017, 02:07 PM
Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody! :ThmbUp:

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.
Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers.com/gamblers/horse-racing/william-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter

INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.

BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.

Since it sounds as though you're using a tote-watching system, I don't understand why you're citing Benter's method as proof that yours works. This isn't what he was doing at all. You make it sound as though he wasn't using a 'fundamental model', as he describes it (or, making your own line, as the average handicapper would describe it) because it would be too difficult. In fact, this is exactly what he did. And his 'fundamental model' was more powerful than the 'public model' -- it made a small profit. But it became much more powerful after he combined it with the 'public model' -- aka 'the odds' -- in the areas where the 'public model' was stronger. This is what you summarize in the last two sentences of your post. But, he wasn't doing this on a race-by-race basis, as you imply -- this model-combination was the result of an analysis of thousands of races. So, as with anyone who makes a line, he knew the odds he (or really his runners) was looking for before the race -- he wasn't watching tote movement.

Also, re tote action itself -- I've never seen a serious study that didn't describe pre-race price movement as random. And in this age of improved computer power, it certainly is one of the easiest things to track.

Cheers,

lansdale

woodbinepmi
09-18-2017, 03:38 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *771 (3 winners and a second), 009

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 (040) :12: Laughing Lord: Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 10 (046) :14: Such A Happiness: Was bet down as the 7-2 favourite after moving up in class after a nice win, drew the rail in a full 14 horse field, raced mid-pack while saving ground, was full of run entering the stretch but was boxed in with no exit plan available, tried to avoid the tiring front runner but was bumped multiple times by Winston’s Lad.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (041): :7: Good Fit: Was a quick pull up soon after the race.

Race 2 (044) :2: Marvel Tribe: Was all out in the stretch while defeating a rival who never got back to his proper lead step, picked up 6 points so he’ll be forced up to Class 4 next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (037): 98
2nd (038): 92
3rd (039): +94
4th (040): +92
5th (041): -94
6th (042): -93
7th (043): 109 ?
8th (044): 102
9th (045): 100
10th (046): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
09-19-2017, 09:39 PM
Hong Kongfor September 20th at Happy Valley. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 Degrees, Mostly cloudy this evening. Wind: E 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170920_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170920_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 :3: Sweet Bean (3-1) Draws a bad post and his last few races haven’t been very much to brag about, if it wasn’t for Moreira he would be 20-1 and not the chalk.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *746 (3rd, 6th, 8th and 10th have won their next races):
Race 4 :6: King Winsa (6-1) and :11: Scarborough Fair (31-1), Race 6 :5: Casa Master (13-1).

Race *747 (5th and 7th won while 3rd ran second):
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Race 015 (3rd, 4th and 10th won next out):
Race 1 :11: Forever Fun (74-1), Race 5 :2: Phantom Falcon (7-2) and :4: Formula Galore (8-1).



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: King of Mongolia (17-1)
Race 4 :7: Smart Union (3-1)
Race 6 :4: Wah May Baby (10-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :4: Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Key Play:
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Goal For Gold (12-1)
Race 3 :9: Loyal Craftsman (14-1)
Race 7 :11: Charity Glory (10-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

woodbinepmi
09-21-2017, 10:50 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 009

Notes for the day: Tracked started out very fast for the first 5 races with a clunker in there for the fourth, number came back everyone running around 8 points slow, the fig was adjusted +5 after closer inspection. Track slowed down compared to the earlier races but still a little faster than par. The 3rd race was a grade lower than normal even for a Class 5 event

Horse to watch for list:

Race 050 #7 Smart Union: Was bet down to 7-2 after being away since May, broke well and was taken back looking for room to get near the rail but was unable to being forced out 3 wide in the first turn. Still being taken further back looking for room entering the backside, while this was going on the eventual winner was galloping along on an easy lead setting a very leisurely pace, moved to the three path on the turn for home and carried further out entering the stretch, started making up ground while racing all over the track, just missed out by less than an length.

Race 052 #8 Speedy Wally: Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 053 #1 Fantastic Feeling: Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire. Didn’t pick up any rating points so will be able to stay in Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 048 #4 Sharp Sailor: Had to the move to the 5 path in the turn and Nash had to get to his bottom in the stretch, picks up 7 points so will most likely be carrying 132 pounds in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (047): +98
2nd (048): 102
3rd (049): +88
4th (050): -93#
5th (051): 96
6th (052): 95
7th (053): 102
8th (054): 103


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

kevb
09-23-2017, 12:25 AM
Thanks

woodbinepmi
09-23-2017, 08:34 PM
Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees, 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind: E 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170924_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170924_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 :4: Smiling Glory (4-1) Draws the 11 hole and last couple races on the dirt have nothing to write home about. Even with the Brazilian on don’t care too much for horses that don’t like to win

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *720: The 2nd and 9th won next out while the winner and 10th place runners ran second:
Race 7 :5: Malmsteen (29-1)

Race *773: 3rd and 7th came back and won:
Race 6 :5: Regency Darling (22-1)

Race 009: the 3rd and 5th won with the 4th place finisher came in 2nd in his next race:
Race 7 :9: Easy Touch (34-1)
Race 9 :3: Chung Wah Spirit (5-1)
Race 9 :10: Diamond King (25-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Industrialist Way (3-1)
Race 7 :7: Right Call (17-1)
Race 10 :2: Hang’s Decision (13-1)
Race 10 :4: Soalr Hei Hei (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :11: Multigogo (4-1) Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 10 :12: Citron Spirit (8-1) Broke extremely badly in a Class 3 event spotting the field at least 5 lengths till he straightened up, saved ground on the turn moved to the four path in the stretch and closed well but never able to get to the easy winner, galloped out well.

Key Play:
Race 9 :11: Household King (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :2: Great Toplight (11-1)
Race 4 :12: Snowhooves (10-1)
Race 5 :11: Unique Joyful (24-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Guy (16-1)
Race 9 :5: Regency Bo Bo (10-1)
Race 10 :4: Solar Hei Hei (13-1)

Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Parkview_Pirate
09-24-2017, 05:50 AM
It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.

Same for me now as well, at least at Twinspires and Xpressbet. Sometime in the last year or so, at least one of them or TVG also carried a double wager, but apparently no longer.

AltonKelsey
09-24-2017, 01:48 PM
No idea why they stopped carrying doubles. Makes no sense

woodbinepmi
09-25-2017, 12:41 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 24, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Closers
Key Races: none

Notes for the day: Field and final time for Race 6 (060) came back very weak, the three first timers in Hong Kong from Race 7 (061) didn’t show as much as they were talked up to be. Race 8 (062) came back very fast for a Class 3 event on the dirt.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 058 #7 Yourthewonforme: Leaped out of the gate costing him at least a couple lengths of running position, but worse all was stuck in the rear of a full field. Raced on the rail full of run in the fourth flight, but was all caught up in the wash in the stretch never being able to properly extend his legs.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 (058) #8 Winning Vibe: Nash had to get to his bottom after having break from the 12 gate in a very slow final time for a Class 5 event.

Race 8 (062) #1 Winning Vangough: Was allowed to set a leisurely pace, looked a winner half-way thru the stretch but was run down near the wire, he never got to his proper lead foot and was a very quick pull up after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (055): -95
2nd (056): 92
3rd (057): 98
4th (058): 89
5th (059): 100
6th (060): 90
7th (061): 101
8th (062): 105
9th (063): +102
10th (064): -99?

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
09-26-2017, 12:44 PM
Hong Kongfor at Happy Valley. Eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 82 degrees with clear skies. Wind: none

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good to Firm

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170927_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170927_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race :7: Haymaker (7-2): Is 1 for 27 lifetime and has the wrong running style for the ‘C+3’ course at Happy Valley.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *771 (8th, 12th and 13th place runners won next out with the 6th place finisher ran second):
Race 4 :9: Happy Friendship (21-1)
Race 005 (9th and 6th place finishers won):
Race 2 :6: Gold Talent (10-1)
Race 009 (2nd, 3rd and 5th have won with the 4th and 7th finished second):
Race 8 :6: So Fast (15-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding) their speed figure on the off track :
Race 3 :5: The Full Bloom (9-1) 100
Race 3 :6: Wah May Baby (11-1) 101
Race 7 :1: Goodheart Success (34-1) 103
Race 7 :6: Green Energy (9-1) 102
Race 8 :11: Master Viking (19-1) N/A

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :9: Fine With Me (7-1) Race *762
Race 4 :1: Victory Follow Me (9-1) Race *782


Key Play:
Race 8 :8: Best Step (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :2: Generous Bobo (11-1)
Race 5 :2: Dr Race (10-1)
Race 5 :10: Junzi (12-1)
Race 7 :6: Green Energy (10-1)
Race 8 :7: Happy Bao Bei (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

kevb
09-27-2017, 05:28 AM
Thanks

kevb
09-27-2017, 09:45 AM
R4:
Happy trails to woodbine key horse #9 Happy Friendship at 45-1

woodbinepmi
09-29-2017, 07:24 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 27, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *792, 029

Notes for the day: Race 2 (066) Even for a Class 5 race it looks to be a level below par, as does race 4 (068). Very impressive win by Starlight in race and Race 7 (071) looks like it has a possibility of becoming a key race very soon.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (066) #2 Show Mission: Had been away since last March, picked up Moreira for the mount and of course was bet down to 4-1, broke well and was pushed up into good position along the rail, settled in 2 lengths off the front runner who eventually finished fourth beaten by ¾ of a length. Scooted in on the rail entering the stretch and looked like he may pull it off at the 150 metre mark but was just a little short, most likely from the long layoff. Hopefully, he draws another weak field and keeps Moreira for the mount.

Race 4 (068) #1 Victory Follow Me: Was very unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 post with the short run to the first turn. Leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths, Purton took full advantage of a bad situation and took him straight to the rail while taking a running position in the rear of the field. Then had to take up slightly in the turn, then was seriously checked entering the backstretch. Moved out to the 5 path in the stretch looking for room but had to jostle up slightly when a tiring runner got into his path, closed well afterward. Doesn’t pick up any rating points so will be allowed to run again in Class 5.

Race 6 (070) #11 Starlight: Is really in form at the moment, got a PERFECT trip in here with 2 dueling on the lead with 2 more in front of him and Starlight running along with no company around him. Drew to the leaders entering the stretch and drew away with all the ease in the world with Purton never even hitting him with the stick. Picks up 9 rating points which will keep him in Class 3 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 8 #8 Best Step: Got lucky and drew the rail in his first start since June, broke well which sometimes can be challenging for him. Dueled on the rail, then had to really dig down to hold on in the stretch with Purton hitting him 18 times. The two he was fighting with both galloped out past him after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (065): +98
2nd (066): -90
3rd (067): -94
4th (068): 93
5th (069): 93
6th (070): +101
7th (071): 105
8th (072): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
09-30-2017, 03:14 PM
Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. October 1st, Ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees with 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good to Yielding

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171001_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171001_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 9 :12: Relentless Me (3-1) Drew the 10 hole in a tough Class 3 race, there are others in here that have run must faster than him and the race he won last out came back very slow for even a Class 4 race. 3-1 no thanks.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *773 (3rd and 7th place runners won next out):
Race 1 :8: Flying Noble (2-1)
Race *666 (5th and 9th won while the 2nd place finisher ran second again):
Race 1 :9: Grade One (6-1)
Race *790 (2nd and 7th won):
Race 4 :9: Eastern Prowess (16-1)
Race 029 (winner and runner up have already came back and won while the 5th place finisher ran second):
Race 1 :7: Paddington (18-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding) with their speed figure on the off track :
Race 2 :7: Ho Ho Feel (6-1) 102
Race 4 :1: A Beautiful (9-5) 99
Race 6 :8: Starship (6-1) 93
Race 7 :6: Dashing Fellow (29-1) 105
Race 8 :4: Seasons Bloom (2-1) 105
Race 9 :1: Calculation (15-1) 100
Race 10 :2: Shamal (12-1) 104
Race 10 :10: Jumbo Luck (8-1) 107

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :4: Gorgeous King (7-2) – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch and was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Race 2 :5: Gorgeous Again (3-1) – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start moved to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire.

Race 9 :7: Daring Fit (8-1) – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing near the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :6: Winner’s Way (10-1) Race *757
Race 10 :3: House Of Fun (15-1) Race *742

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Gorgeous Again (3-1)
Race 9 :7: Darling Fit (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :3: None Other (17-1)
Race 2 :1: Jolly Gene (14-1)
Race 4 :9: Eastern Prowess (17-1)
Race 8 :6: Winner’s Way (10-1)
Race 10 :3: House Of Fun (15-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

proximity
10-01-2017, 05:21 AM
good call there with dashing fellow. it seemed to be raining pretty hard?

fellowmen
10-01-2017, 10:46 PM
No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).

I was looking at the results at DRF for Sha Tin and they had a pic6 result that paid $264,000. Can you bet the pic6 through their site?

woodbinepmi
10-02-2017, 03:47 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *756, *757, *801, 010, 023 and 027

Notes for the day:
Track started fast until the rains came, then it went very slow and then gradually got a little quicker as the day went on. Race 4 (076) came back a little slow and for a Class 4 race and a little weak for Sha Tin. The first GIII (079) was won by a runner who looks to prefer the softer going, a throw out for most of the classier runners in there. Nice race for the top 2 finishers in the last (082).

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (074) #5 Gorgeous Again: Was on the watch list from his last race, broke well and was in a good position on the backside and the turn while saving ground on the rail. When straightened up for the run home the good position turned into a detriment being stuck behind a wall of three, when he moved closer to the rail the one directly in front him also drifted in, while this was going on the eventual winner was making his winning move. Purton wrapped up on him after he realized it was a done deal.

Race 3 (075) #2 Star Of Patch: Had been away since last January, was able to get the services of Purton and was bet down to 5-2, raced at the tail of the field 2 wide in the turn chasing a very slow early pace. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch full of run and looked to be a winner at the 200 metre mark, but was probably just a little short after the lengthy rest, just being outrun near the wire.

Race 6 (078) #14 Call Me Awesome: In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. Hopefully, he will pop up back at his preferred Happy Valley.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (077) Win For Charity: Sat right off a quick pace set while the rain was really coming down, was able to scoot thru on the rail and out finished the favourite to the wire with a 12 pound allowance that was gaining on him nearing the line and out galloped him easily after the wire.

Race 6 (079) Dashing Fellow: Sat in a perfect striking position with some nice horses coming off of lengthy rest fighting it out on the front end, moved to the outside and picked up the pieces late. Is 2 for 2 now on the off tracks, going to play against him next out as long as it doesn’t come up wet.

Speed Figures:
1st (073): 96
2nd (074): 100
3rd (075): -97
4th (076): -95
5th (077): +95
6th (078): 102
7th (079): 109
8th (080): 110
9th (081): 98
10th (082): 106

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-04-2017, 09:31 PM
Hong Kong for at Happy Valley. Tenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 degrees with Partly Cloudy Wind: ENE mph. 10 to 15

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171005_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171005_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 :6: Nassa (7-2): Has been away since May when he sustained a left radius stress fracture, even though he’s coming out of a key race will try and beat him in here.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race 029: (The first two runners won next out with the 5th place finisher ran second)
Race 2 :3: Never Better (6-1)

Race *764: (the 3rd and 4th place finishers won)
Race 4 :4: Planet Star (9-1)

Race *747: (5th and 7th win while the 3rd place was a runner up)
Race 5 :8: Navas (17-1)

Race *705: (3rd and 6th won with the 2nd and 8th finished second)
Race 7 :8: Keep Moving (6-1)

Race *670 (three horses won next out: the 2nd, 4th and 6th)
Race 8 :6: Nassa (7-2)

Race *767 (The winner and 6th won with the 9th running a good second)
Race 8 :10: Chater Legend (14-1)
Race 8 :12: Super Chic (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :1: Unique Happiest (7-1)
Race 3 :3: Happy And Healthy (12-1)
Race 5 :4: Back In Black (9-1)
Race 7 :7: Mr Right (10-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :1: Victory Follow Me (5-1): Was very unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 post with the short run to the first turn. Leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths, Purton took full advantage of a bad situation and took him straight to the rail while taking a running position in the rear of the field. Then had to take up slightly in the turn, then was seriously checked entering the backstretch. Moved out to the 5 path in the stretch looking for room but was jostled up slightly when a tiring runner got into his path, closed well afterward.

Race :2: London City (14-1): Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the winner under him came off the rail, he looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short while the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 6 :12: The Sylph (5-1): Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 8 :5: Dinozzo (9-1): Leaped out of the gate then settled on the rail in the first turn racing mid-pack, moved into contention but was herded down on the rail then moved out to the 3 path but was never able to find any room to run. Moreira wrapped up on him in the last 50 metres while still only finishing less than 2 lengths back.


Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :3: Doyeni (9-1) Race *787

Key Play:
Race 8 :5: Dinozzo (9-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Gold Velvet (16-1)
Race 2 :2: London City (11-1)
Race 3 :9: King Winsa (14-1)
Race 5 :3: General Iron (14-1)
Race 6 :2: Thunder Stomp (11-1)
Race 7 :10: Racing Mate (14-1)
Race 8 :2: Packing Dragon (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

woodbinepmi
10-06-2017, 07:21 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 5, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Good Rail
Key Races: 031 and 038

Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 (090) #6 Nassa: Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (087) #5 Jumbo Happiness: Raced on the best part of the track and was just able to hold off Mr Picasso who had a very tough trip in a slow race for a Class 3 event.

Race 7 (089) #8 Keep Moving: Saved ground on a night that it looked like the best place to be, clipped heals at the top of the lane and was still able to get up for the win, but was all out to hold off a closing E-Super.

Speed Figures:
1st (083): +90
2nd (084): -96
3rd (085): 96
4th (086): 100
5th (087): -95
6th (088): 102
7th (089): 102
8th (090): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-07-2017, 03:07 PM
Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Eleventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 88 degrees partly cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171008_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171008_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :1: Real Deal (4-1) Even though he is taking a drop in class he had showed absolutely nothing lately in Class 4, his speed figures are nowhere close to par even for this class, will bet all day long against types like these at 4-1.

Race 8 :3: Fantastic Eight (5-2) Was all out in his last race after getting an easy lead, never got to his proper lead foot in the stretch, and should have company on the front end today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *670 (2nd, 4th, & 6th won 12th ran second)
Race 6 :1: Beauty Way (12-1)

Race 010 (3rd and 7th won)
Race 6 :6: Rattan (5-1)

Race *650 (1st and 7th won with the 6th place runner finished second)
Race 7 :2: Top Ace (6-1)

Race 027 (1st and 3rd won)
Race 8 :8: Mythical Emperor (9-2)

Race *807 (3rd and 6th won, winner ran second)
Race 10 :8: Big Bang Bong (11-1)

Race 009 (2nd, 3rd and 5th won with the 4th and 7th place finishers ran second)
Race 10 :13: Fifty Fifty (5-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Look Eras (6-1)
Race 6 :6: Rattan (5-1)


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :5: Fun Manager (7-2) Race 031
Race 3 :12: Multigood (3-1) Race 001
Race 7 :9: Sure Peace (13-1) Race *774
Race 8 :9: Winston’s Lad (21-1) Race *754

Key Play:
Race 10 :13: Fifty Fifty (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 :3: Born To Race (21-1)
Race 5 :8: Sight Seeing (31-1)
Race 7 :9: Sure Peace (13-1)
Race 8 :9: Winston’s Lad (21-1)
Race 10 :8: Big Bang Bong (11-1)

woodbinepmi
10-09-2017, 07:50 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 8, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Good Rail
Key Races: *780, 005, 010, 027 and 039

Notes for the day: Impressive win by Alcari in the first with Amazing star eating a ton of money for a first time starter, did fall to his knees at the break, should improve off that. Fifty Fifty in the last won while having to wait for room, moved over on a few horses causing Teetan a couple race days, but when he cleared he took off. He picked up 8 points which will keep him in Class 2 carrying around 123 lbs., which should be no problem for him.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 1 (091) #7 Amazing Star: Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 3 (093) #3 Ambitious Heart: Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 9 (099) #5 Willie Way: His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 (097) Spicy Kaka: Sat in a perfect spot saving ground on the rail moved to the lead at the top of the stretch passing the tiring duelers. Was hit 15 times all the way down the stretch and just held off a closer for the win in a slow time for the class. Will have to pick up another 5 lbs. in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (091): 97
2nd (092): -91
3rd (093): 96
4th (094): 95
5th (095): 94
6th (096): -99
7th (097): -93
8th (098): 103
9th (099): 103
10th (100): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

proximity
10-09-2017, 10:42 PM
Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :1: Real Deal (4-1) Even though he is taking a drop in class he had showed absolutely nothing lately in Class 4, his speed figures are nowhere close to par even for this class, will bet all day long against types like these at 4-1.



my already abysmal hong kong handicapping was particularly embarrassing in this race. i too hated this horse. i think he ran 4th though which far exceeded the odds i made for him. and i won't even say what i had the winner (winner st paul) at. :blush::blush::blush:

proximity
10-10-2017, 12:16 AM
my already abysmal hong kong handicapping was particularly embarrassing in this race. i too hated this horse. i think he ran 4th though which far exceeded the odds i made for him. and i won't even say what i had the winner (winner st paul) at. :blush::blush::blush:

it's really embarrassing for a guy who goes to penn national, lol, but i don't think i'm giving near enough emphasis to trainers here. :blush:

this race ran 12-13-4-1 and the top pct trainers were 13-12-2-4.

woodbinepmi
10-10-2017, 06:38 PM
Hong Kongfor at Happy Valley. Twelfth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 79 degrees, 40% of scattered thunderstorms early. Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171011_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171011_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :11: Confucius Spirit (4-1): Is only 2 for 41 lifetime and 1 for 33 in this class.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 029 (top two finishers won next out and the 5th placed runner ran second)
Race 2 :12: happy Fiery Dragon (19-1)

Race 023 (2nd and 6th won, the winner and third place finishers came back and were runner-ups in their next out)
Race 5 :6: The Jazz (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Double Master (13-1)
Race 2 :1: Bond Elegance (5-1)
Race 3 :12: Trendiful (15-1)
Race 4 :7: King Of Mongolia (10-1)
Race 6 :7: Happy Journey (26-1)
Race 8 :5: Jolly Convergence (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :4: Show Mission (6-1): Had been away since last March, picked up Moreira for the mount and of course was bet down to 4-1, broke well and was pushed up into good position along the rail, settled in 2 lengths off the front runner who eventually finished fourth beaten by ¾ of a length. Scooted in on the rail entering the stretch and looked like he may pull it off at the 150 metre mark but was just a little short, most likely from the long layoff.

Race 5 :2: Speedy Wally (2-1): Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 6 :8: Magnetism (9-1): Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :8: Dollar Reward (10-1) Race 016


Key Play:
Race 7 :6: Premiere (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :5: Cheerful Boy (12-1)
Race 6 :8: Magnetism (10-1)
Race 7 :8: Mr Genuine (13-1)
Race 8 :12: Good Companion (12-1)

woodbinepmi
10-12-2017, 02:51 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 11, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Impressive wins by both Love Chunghwa and Premiere. Race 1, 5 and 8 came back slow, while Race 3 and 7 were way above par. Favourite in Race 6 #1 Chung Wah Spirit was a quick pull up after his race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (102) #2 Merrygowin: Had been away since May and was bet down as the 5-2 favourite. Drew the outside post, was taken straight to the back after the break, was still 3 wide in the short turn, was taken to the middle of the track entering the stretch, was slightly bumped at the 200 metre mark but finished very well only losing by a length while conceding 24 pounds to the winner who had a much easier trip. Only picked up 1 rating point so will continue in Class 4 for his next race.

Race 4 (104) # 1 Jolly Gene: Was taken back at the start and settled in mid-pack which is usually not where he likes it, after being asked to run on the turn for home had to be taken up at the 250 metre mark when King Of Mongolia was moved out to avoid a tiring Tai Smart, moved to the inside looking for room but again had nowhere to go with Bank Of Red and Rule Thee were drifting in and out. Was wrapped on at the 50 metre mark, galloped out well.

Race 6 (106) # 5 Cheerful Boy: A front running type that leaped out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths to the herd, but more importantly his position as a leader. Entered the first turn climbing, but closed well in the stretch after saving ground and only being given a couple crosses and a few love taps on his right flank. Race came back a little quick for Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (105) # 10 Gentry: Won a very slow Class 4 event at 20-1 while beating Speedy Wally who had a very rough trip and not giving the best ride of Zach Purton’s career.

Speed Figures:
1st (101): 91
2nd (102): 96
3rd (103): 100
4th (104): 102
5th (105): -92
6th (106): 101
7th (107): 107
8th (108): -96

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-13-2017, 05:58 PM
Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. October 14th Thirteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 83 degrees 50% chance of afternoon showers Wind: N 20 to 30mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171014_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171014_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :10: Furious Pegasus (4-1): Has yet to finish in the money after 21 tries and 6 of them at this the lowest class level in Hong Kong, his rating just keeps dropping and dropping.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *771 (winners: 8th,12th & 13th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :7: Gentlemen (21-1)

Race 060 (winners: 3rd and 10th)
Race 4 :3: Giddy Giddy (15-1), :6: Flying Godspell (10-1), 11:11: Viva Council (4-1)
Race 5 :13: Sweet Home (6-1)
Race 6 :12: Lucky Girl (24-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Ambitious Speedy (6-1)
Race 2 :5: The Full Bloom (12-1)
Race 3 :1: Industrialist Way (7-1)
Race 6 :2: Solar Hei Hei (12-1)
Race 6 :12: Lucky Girl (24-1)
Race 8 :7: Peace N Prosperity (31-1)
Race 10 :9: A Beautiful (12-1)


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :9: Fine With Me (18-1) Race *762
Race 4 :8: Goal For Gold (7-1) Race *762
Race 6 :7: Citron Spirit (6-1) Race *758
Race 8 :13: Travel Emperor (11-1) Race 009
Race 9 :11: Perpetual Joyance (23-1) Race *768

Key Play:
Race 6 :4: Rocketeer (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :9: Le Pegase (15-1)
Race 8 :1: Fortune Bo Bo (16-1)
Race 8 :13: Travel Emperor (11-1)
Race 9 :3: King Genki (10-1)
Race 10 :11: Silverfield (12-1)

proximity
10-14-2017, 01:44 AM
tonight's guesses:

key(contend)

race 1: :10:
race 2: :12: :4:
race 3: :4::9::10:
race 4: :7::11:
race 5: :2::6:
race 6::7::1:
race 7: :7::1:
race 8: pass
race 9: :7:
race 10: :3::9::8::10:

woodbinepmi
10-15-2017, 04:21 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed on the turf held a little bit better than normal.
Key Races: *684, *755, 022, 038 and 059

Notes for the day: A couple races had to be adjusted in their final figures, one was just off with their past figures and the other being the only 1,000 metre race of the day. Spotlight Dream in the 7th and in the 9th Little Giant were both very impressive in their runs on the dirt. In race 2 The Full Bloom and Let’s Take It Easy were both unlucky being stuck nearest to the rail while being boxed the entire trip in the stretch.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #7 World Record: Had been off since July and drew the 10 hole in his debut for the season. Took a slight jump at the break, was very insignificant due to his usual running position, after-wards settled at the back racing around 8 lengths off the leader while the eventual winner was running all alone on a track that favoured front runners. Was stuck behind a wall at the 400 metre mark, had to be taken up slightly at the 320 mark, finally when room became available he exploded to the wire but the race was already decided by then.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #10 Furious Pegasus: The race set up perfectly for him, had to dig in to get to the wire first, even for a Class 5 race it came back very light.

Race 2 #13 Unique Joyful: Yeung had to get to his bottom to hold off a 26-1 Contribution after racing near the lead in a slow pace on a speed favouring track.

Speed Figures:
1st (109): 95
2nd (110): -92#
3rd (111): 97
4th (112): 97
5th (113): 96
6th (114): 105
7th (115): -99
8th (116): 98#
9th (117): 107
10th (118): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-17-2017, 06:01 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. Fourteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees 0% chance of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171018_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171018_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 7 :10: Smart Boy (4-1): Going up in Class and that's a nice jump in Hong Kong from Class 4 to Class 3 and was all out in that Class 4 race. His speed figures a little light for Class 3 too, with others who look to be a little faster than him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 029 (winners: 1st, 2nd and 7th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :2: Winfull Patrol (11-1)

Race 038 (winners: 2nd and 3rd, second: 8th)
Race 2 :10: London Master (12-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4: Wah May Baby (2-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :1: Great Joy (7-1): Broke well with Moreira and took his usual running position at the rear of the field while heading into the first turn, swung to the 4 path entering the stretch full of run but started throwing his head around when room was unavailable. Moved a little further out for room, closed well but was never able to get close to the winner. (He prefers going longer than 1200 which he is entered in for today).

Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (7-1): Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :5: Fun Manager (5-1) Race 031
Race 6 :6: Master Albert (2-1) Race *720


Key Plays:
Race 6 :6: Master Albert (2-1)
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :12: Kim Glory (13-1)
Race 5 :7: Pearl Warm Warm (16-1)
Race 6 :3: Breeders’ Star (15-1)
Race 6 :5: Roundabout (15-1)

proximity
10-18-2017, 04:31 AM
tonight's guesses:

key(contend)

race 1: :10:
race 2: :12: :4:
race 3: :4::9::10:
race 4: :7::11:
race 5: :2::6:
race 6::7::1:
race 7: :7::1:
race 8: pass
race 9: :7:
race 10: :3::9::8::10:

last time: connected on furious Pegasus (4.80, 2.70), cp power (9.30,3.50), citron spirit (10.10, 3.20) and little giant (3.80, 2.50) to win. unfortunately none of my other keys hit the board so I was 4/9 to place too (losing $) and 0/10 on both quinellas and omnis.

https://www.offtrackbetting.com/results/race.html?track=sha-tin-(hong-kong)&raceday=20171013

today's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :11:
race 2: :8::12:
race 3: :4::6:
race 4: :2::12:
race 5: :2::10::8::3:
race 6: :6::5:
race 7: :3::7::2::10:
race 8: :1::6::4:

woodbinepmi
10-19-2017, 06:33 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 18, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Winners of the 2nd (London Master) and the 7th (Who Else But You) were both very impressive, while the 5th race looked light for a Class 4 going in and it also looked that coming out. Race 051 looks to have a possibility of becoming a key race soon, what with the winners of races 124 and 125 coming out of it.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 (121) #10 Megatron: Had been showing more speed early in his races lately, but took a slight leap out of the gate forcing Teetan to take him back early on so not to be caught wide going into the first turn. Settled mid-pack on the rail, had to be taken up slightly going into the first turn, moved to the middle of the track at the 300 metre mark for the run for home. Dug in well while never changing to his proper lead foot. He never really having a true chance of catching the top 2.

Race 8 (126) #9 Super Form: Even though the race came back a little slow for its class, he had a real eventful race while going 2 wide in the first turn, then 4 wide in the turn for home and having to move almost to the outside rail in the stretch only to be beaten by a head against a rival who was able to save ground on the rail in the turns.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 (121) #4 Wah May Baby: Raced down the backside in a perfect position with nobody around him, Moreira started rubbing on him with 450 metres to go, hooked up with the eventual second place runner with 200 to go. Moreira had to hit him 15 times to the wire in the stretch just to get up by a head. Picks up 5 rating points which will put him at 59 just under for him to stay at Class 4 while carrying 133 pounds in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (119): 90
2nd (120): 98
3rd (121): 98
4th (122): +92
5th (123): -94#
6th (124): 100
7th (125): 100
8th (126): 98

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-21-2017, 06:58 PM
Hong Kongat Sha Tin. Fifteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: N 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171022_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171022_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 9 :10: Top Beautiful (5-1): Is two for two but was all out in his last while getting a 12 pounds allowance against Beauty Master, draws the 12 hole with the short run to the turn and a little tougher overall field from his last.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *773 (winners: 3rd and 7th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :6: Lucky Time (7-1)

Race 038 (winners: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, second: 8th)
Race 1 :9: Fish N’ Chips (12-1)

Race *801 (winners: 2nd and 7th, second: winner)
Race 2 :12: Aeroluminance (32-1)

Race 022 (winners: 6th, 7th and 10th)
Race 3 :2: Good Method (9-1)

Race *807 (winners: 3rd and 6th, second: winner)
Race 4 :1: Circuit Hassler (12-1)

Race *757 (winners: 4th and 7th, second: 2nd)
Race 7 :2: Thewizardofoz (6-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :9: Fish N’ Chips (12-1)
Race 2 :12: Aeroluminance (32-1)
Race 3 :2: Good Method (9-1)
Race 6 :5: Solar Hei Hei (15-1)
Race 7 :2: Thewizardofoz (6-1)
Race 7 :7: Dashing Fellow (16-1)
Race 10 :5: Hang’s Decision (35-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :9: Yourthewonforme (7-2): Leaped out of the gate costing him at least a couple lengths of running position, but worse all was stuck in the rear of a full field. Raced on the rail full of run in the fourth flight, but was all caught up in the wash in the stretch never being able to properly extend his legs.

Race 3 :10: Laughing Lord (16-1): Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 9 :14: Star Of Patch (9-1): Had been away since last January, was able to get the services of Purton and was bet down to 5-2, raced at the tail of the field 2 wide in the turn chasing a very slow early pace. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch full of run and looked to be a winner at the 200 metre mark, but was probably just a little short after the lengthy rest, just being outrun near the wire. (May be a little outclassed in today’s race)

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :4: Doyeni (9-1) Race *787
Race 6 :7: Dinozzo (5-2) Race *787
Race 8 :8: Winner’s way (12-1) Race *757
Race 9 :8: Daring Fit (5-1) Race 027

Key Plays:
Race 5 :9: Flying Noble (5-2)
Race 10 :2: Nothinglikemore (8-5)


Longshots:
Race 1 :12: Hot Hot Pepper (12-1)
Race 2 :4: Great Treasure (18-1)
Race 3 :11: Snowhooves (20-1)
Race 6 :12: Rickfield (26-1)
Race 7 :9: Fabulous One (36-1)
Race 8 :8: Winner’s Way (12-1)

proximity
10-21-2017, 10:36 PM
today's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :11:
race 2: :8::12:
race 3: :4::6:
race 4: :2::12:
race 5: :2::10::8::3:
race 6: :6::5:
race 7: :3::7::2::10:
race 8: :1::6::4:

last time: connected on wah may baby (5.50,3.00) and gonna run (9.10,3.30) to win while gold velvet (5.10) and master albert (2.60) hit the place line for a small loss in both markets. only 1/11 (12.10) in the elusive quinella pool but 3/11 (55.40) for a winning day in omnis. heartbreak in the 7th where I key Moreira who runs out while my other three contenders run 1-3-2. win some, lose some.

tonight's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: pass
race 2: :6::14::8::3:
race 3: :9::1:
race 4: :6::5:
race 5: :9::4::2:
race 6: :7::3:
race 7: :2::9::3:
race 8: :11::13:
race 9: :2::9:
race 10: :2::11:

woodbinepmi
10-23-2017, 06:37 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 22, 2017
Track: Sha Tine
Bias: Speed held a little better than normal for the rail at the “A” setting.
Key Races: *773

Notes for the day: Times were all over the place, days like this gives figure makers nightmares. Race 2 broke a track record at 1600 metres for Class 4, the winner Morethanlucky picked up 8 rating points for the effort, his number still keeps him competitive at Class 3 where he will most likely carry around 120 pounds. Race 5 came back very slow and will try and avoid or play against anything that will come out of that race. Lucky Bubbles made a nice run in the stretch while switching back and forth on his lead step, only to beaten by Mr. Stunning by a half-length and who had already had a race under him since the break. Should reverse the outcome the next time they face each other. A real clunker of an effort by Beauty Only in the eighth race. In the 9th Super Fluke earned an above average number for Class 3 and with him only picking up 7 rating points it will keep him in Class 3 for his next race. Top Beautiful in that same race was taken too far back and ended up caught in the was in the stretch, not a very good ride by Moreira. Nothingilikemore is now rated up to 109, welcome to the big boy’s table.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #1 Circuit Hassler: Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 #7 Supper Hoppy: In his debut race in Hong Kong after going 3 for 3 in Australia where he raced right off the leaders, raced in the back early on Sunday. Was 2 wide in the turn then was stuck behind by a great wall in the stretch, squeezed his way thru at the 200 metre mark, continued to the wire while never really having an opportunity to catch the winner who ran an above average time for the class.

Race 10 #8 Jolly Jolly: Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 ¾ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #6 Lucky Time: Had everything go his way, a nice pace that set up for him and finally outfinished some tired rivals while racing on his wrong lead step in a very slow time, even with a nice headwind in his face.

Race 5 Anything out this race.

Speed Figures:
1st (127): 92#
2nd (128): +101#
3rd (129): 93
4th (130): 99
5th (131): -90#
6th (132): 105
7th (133): 109
8th (134): 109
9th (135): 103
10th (136): 103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-24-2017, 04:19 PM
Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Sixteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Clear skies 10% chance of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good to Firm (Usually plays more towards speed than any other track in Hong Kong)

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171025_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171025_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 027 (winners: 1st, 2nd and 3rd)
Race 8 :10: Happy Happy Star (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :6: Wealthy Fortune (35-1)
Race 5 :1: Bold Elegance (19-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Girl (7-1)
Race 8 :12: Back In Black (14-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :2: Jolly Gene (9-1): Was taken back at the start and settled in mid-pack which is usually not where he likes it, after being asked to run on the turn for home had to be taken up at the 250 metre mark when King Of Mongolia was moved out to avoid a tiring Tai Smart, moved to the inside looking for room but again had nowhere to go with Bank Of Red and Rule Thee were drifting in and out. Was wrapped on at the 50 metre mark, galloped out well.

Race 1 :5: Gorgeous Again (7-2): Was on the watch list from his last race, broke well and was in a good position on the backside and the turn while saving ground on the rail. When straightened up for the run home the good position turned into a detriment being stuck behind a wall of three, when he moved closer to the rail the one directly in front him also drifted in, while this was going on the eventual winner was making his winning move. Purton wrapped up on him after he realized it was a done deal.

Race 8 :1: Starlight (2-1): Is really in form at the moment, got a PERFECT trip in here with 2 dueling on the lead with 2 more in front of him and Starlight running along with no company around him. Drew to the leaders entering the stretch and drew away with all the ease in the world with Purton never even hitting him with the stick.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :3: Victory Follow Me (7-2) Race 068
Race 5 :8: Multigogo (7-1) Race 001
Race 6 :3: Speedy Wally (4-1) Race 052


Key Plays:
Race 2 :3: Victory Follow Me (7-2)
Race 8 :1: Starlight (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :2: Jolly Gene (9-1)
Race 4 :1: Dr Race (18-1)
Race 6 :5: Happy And Healthy (12-1)
Race 8 :10: Happy Happy Star (9-1)

proximity
10-25-2017, 02:59 AM
tonight's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: pass
race 2: :6::14::8::3: ($24.50 p, $67 Omni)
race 3: :9::1: ($24.00 w, $11.50 p)
race 4: :6::5: (23.50 p, 71.50 Omni)
race 5: :9::4::2: (#2 scratched)
race 6: :7::3:(13.50 p, 38.50 Omni)
race 7: :2::9::3:
race 8: :11::13:
race 9: :2::9:
race 10: :2::11:($16.00 w, $11.50 p)


last time: a lot of bets on Moreira with only yourthewonforme (race 3)and nothingilikemore (race 10) grinding out chalky wins. 5/9 hit the place line for a small loss in that market. it was another brutal day on quinellas (0/12). omnis continue to be a bright spot as I went 3/12 for another winning day. $10 hong kong prices posted above.

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :3:ensuring :1:
race 2: :3:victory follow me :8::11::1::4:
race 3::2: cloud nine
race 4: :6:elegance promise :3:
race 5: :5:look eras :2::6:
race 6: pass race
race 7: :2:winwin ruby:4:
race 8: :1:starlight :5:

woodbinepmi
10-26-2017, 04:35 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 25, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 085

Notes for the day: In the 1st Gorgeous Again had no visible excuse for such a poor effort in the first, Nash pretty much just wrapped up on him early in mid-stretch after he figured not to have anything under him. Premium Champion in the 3rd was a quick pull up after his race. Impressive win by Speedy King in the fourth, looks to be a nice push button type with his figure being just above average for the class, even after the slow start at the break. He picks up 6 points which will allow him to compete again in Class 4 once more. Lucky Girl was very unlucky picking up 2 rating points after a nice second place run which will move him back up to Class 2 which looks above his capability at the moment even with the weight allowance. In the final Starlight outclassed a decent Class 3 field, rating is up to 81 which will force him up to Class 2 but getting to race with low weight, will lose Purton for that out due to Zach not being able make that weight. In that same race there were plenty of trouble trips: Navas, Grace Heart and Back In Black all encountered enough interference to impeed their final running positions.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 (143) #8 Bank On Red: Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 8 (144) # 6 Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (141) #5 Look Eras: Nash had to use every ounce of run he had in him to get up to the wire in a slow Class 4 race. Picks up 5 points off that effort, which will force him to carry around 131 pounds for his next race in Class 4.

Speed Figures:
1st (137): 103#
2nd (138): -93#
3rd (139): -94#
4th (140): 97
5th (141): -93
6th (142): -96
7th (143): 101
8th (144): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-28-2017, 04:15 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. Seventeenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 82 degrees few clouds 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00amET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171029_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171029_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :1: Le Panache (7-2): Closed well in his last at 2000 metres at 20-1, is adding 200 more metres here but is also adding 8 pounds on his back, will bet against him with only one out of thirteen races in the money and a .02% trainer.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :2: Wah May Baby (11-1)
Race 10 :11: Jumbo Luck (6-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 4 :1: Merrygowin (9-5): Had been away since May and was bet down as the 5-2 favourite. Drew the outside post, was taken straight to the back after the break, was still 3 wide in the short turn, was taken to the middle of the track entering the stretch, was slightly bumped at the 200 metre mark but finished very well only losing by a length while conceding 24 pounds to the winner who had a much easier trip.

Race 5 :11: Megatron (4-1): Had been showing more speed early in his races lately, but took a slight leap out of the gate forcing Teetan to take him back early on so not to be caught wide going into the first turn. Settled mid-pack on the rail, had to be taken up slightly going into the first turn, moved to the middle of the track at the 300 metre mark for the run for home. Dug in well while never changing to his proper lead foot. He never really having a true chance of catching the top 2.


Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :3: London City (14-1) Race 030
Race 4 :12: Show Mission (18-1) Race 066
Race 10 :2: House Of Fun (19-1) Race *742


Key Plays:
Race 2 :1: Love Chunghwa (7-2)
Race 4 :1: Merrygowin (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :7: Island Fever (12-1)
Race 3 :8: Rocket Let Win (11-1)
Race 7 :8: Mr Right (15-1)
Race 8 :9: Relentless Me (13-1)

woodbinepmi
10-30-2017, 08:43 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 29, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *751

Notes for the day: First two races of the day were slower than par while the last came back quicker than normal. Haymaker encountered quite a bit of trouble after breaking from the 11 hole in the 3rd, but he has never shown any inclination of winning or he would have made my watch list. Merrygowin was unluck not getting up for the win after conceding 16 pounds to the winner. Very impressive win for the Aussie first timer in Hong Kong Powermax, had plenty in the tank even after encountering trouble at the break. Line Seeker loses a rating point which will keep him in Class 2, closed well after being blocked in the stretch. In that same race Southern Legend is now up to 102 which puts him in Class 1, should be able to compete there with the weight allowance.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Better Choice: First time starter for So was totally cold on the board at 77-1. Was a step slow out of the gate, became a little rank on the backside then took Ng 3 wide in to the turn, then shifted to the 6 path for the run home had to shift slightly when Accession Years came into his path. Really took off at the 150 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders, hopefully he while be able to get a top allowance rider for his next race at the Valley.

Race 9 #1 Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. Picked up 2 rating points off the effort which will bring him up to a total of 92 which will allow another try at Class 2.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #11 Sharpmind: Was hit a total of 15 times in the stretch by Risoli and was non-stop for the last 70 metres just holding off the favourite Merrygowin while getting a substantial weight allowance.

Race 5 #2 Wah May Baby: Was a quick pull up after his poor performance.

Speed Figures:
1st (145): +89
2nd (146): -93
3rd (147): 95
4th (148): 96
5th (149): 98
6th (150): +99
7th (151): 98
8th (152): 102
9th (153): 103
10th (154): +107

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
10-31-2017, 06:16 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Eighteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “AWT”, track listed: Fast

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171101_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171101_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :12: Imperial concorde (4-1): All of his victories have been on the dirt surface, but was all out just to miss in his last and drawing the 13 gate with the short run to the first turn doesn’t bode well for him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *755 (winners: 1st and 3rd, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :6: Kirov (6-1)

Race *771 (winners: 8th, 12th and 13th, second: 6th)
Race 3 :11: Holy Unicorn (16-1)

Race 039 (winners: 7th and 10th, second: 3rd and 4th)
Race 3 :3: Happy Beauty (8-1)
Race 3 :5: Diamond Friends (2-1)
Race 3 :7: Equity Doctrine (11-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :3: Willie Way (8-1): His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 :9: Sure Peace (22-1) Race *774
Race 5 :11: Goal For Gold (8-1) Race *762
Race 6 :3: Fantastic Feeling (35-1) Race 053

Key Plays:
Race 7 :3: Willie Way (8-1)
Race 8 :6: Divine Boy (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Trendiful (20-1)
Race 2 :5:Giddy Giddy (11-1)
Race 3 :1: Jimson The Famous (30-1)
Race 6 :7: Lucky Guy (12-1)

proximity
11-01-2017, 04:25 AM
today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :3:ensuring :1: ($14 p, $116 quin, $40 omni)
race 2: :3:victory follow me :8::11::1::4:
race 3::2: cloud nine ($20 win, $10.10 p)
race 4: :6:elegance promise :3:
race 5: :5:look eras :2::6: ($63.50 w, $20 p, $222 quin, $70 omni)
race 6: pass race
race 7: :2:winwin ruby:4:
race 8: :1:starlight :5: ($18 w, $10.50 p)

last time: 3/7 to win with look eras (63.50 hk) sandwiched between the chalkier cloud nine and starlight. ensuring hits the place line but i again suffer defeat in that market. finally breakthrough with a pair of quinellas to suddenly get back into contention for the season on the exotic.

season: win 11/33 1.07 roi, place 17/33 0.81 roi, quinella 3/43 0.93 roi, omni 8/43 1.31 roi.

today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :6:foxbat :3::8::1:
race 2: :10:startling power :3:
race 3: :5:diamond friends :3::12:
race 4: :11: confucius spirit :5::10:
race 5: :1: gran master
race 6::10:most beautiful :7:
race 7: :2:red marvel
race 8: :6:divine boy :1::8:

woodbinepmi
11-03-2017, 01:48 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Sprints were considerably slower than the route races with the exception of the last race, which was the only race on the card that was faster than par. Going to give Willie Way another try after closing strongly in the lane after going extremely wide in the second turn only to get beat by a neck by the favourite.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Pick Number One: First time starter that went off as the betting favourite and won with ease against a fairly decent Class 4 field while running a final speed figure 6 points faster than par. Engaged in a duel immediately out of the gate which lasted for 850 meteres until Beekley threw in the towel at the top of the lane and still held off the top 2 weights with ease. Picked up 8 rating points to a total of 60, which will keep him in Class 4 for another try carrying 133 pounds, hopefully he’ll pick up a bug boy and get an allowance.

Race 8 #9 Classic Emperor: Ran one of the most impressive races of the season so far, in his first try on the dirt defeating a big favourite in Divine Boy by almost 7 lengths who beat the third place runner by 2 lengths himself. Picked up a whopping 11 points off the effort, hopefully So will keep him on the dirt from now on.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Red Marvel: Moreira had to really get into him in the lane going to the whip 15 times to hold off Willie Way who had a much tougher trip than he did. Will be forced to carry top weight of 133 in his next start in Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (155): 89
2nd (156): 94
3rd (157): 94
4th (158): 102
5th (159): -95
6th (160): 99
7th (161): 100
8th (162): 110

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Good Luck everybody with The Breeders’ Cup this weekend!

proximity
11-04-2017, 11:21 AM
today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :6:foxbat :3::8::1: ($76 w, $26.50 p)
race 2: :10:startling power :3:
race 3: :5:diamond friends :3::12: ($21 w, $13 p)
race 4: :11: confucius spirit :5::10:
race 5: :1: gran master
race 6::10:most beautiful :7:
race 7: :2:red marvel ($31.50 w, $16 p)
race 8: :6:divine boy :1::8: ($12 p)


last time: get off to a good start with Foxbat ($76 hk) in the opener but can only win with lower priced diamond friends and red marvel in the next seven. divine boy hits the place line. 0/11 in both quinellas and omnis.

season: win 14/41 (1.18 roi) place 21/41 (0.82) quin 3/54 (0.74) Omni 8/54 (1.04)

November 5 guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :10:lucky lucky :1:
race 2: :9:winner st paul's :11::7::12:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :2:i'm a witness
race 5: :13:midnite promise :6::2:
race 6: :1:great joy :4:
race 7: :4:time warp
race 8: :8:tai smart :1::6::7:
race 9: :1:spicy sure
race 10: :10:big bang bong :2::5:

proximity
11-04-2017, 11:38 AM
is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on..... :bang:

proximity
11-04-2017, 12:38 PM
is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on..... :bang:

everything is good now at amwager!

good luck to all hong kong bettors. :)

woodbinepmi
11-04-2017, 06:06 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Nineteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 78 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171105_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171105_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :5: Conte (8-5): Might be a nice runner, but as a first time starter for John Size breaking for the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at 1200 metres at Sha Tin it will most likely have him parked wide throughout. Will watch him closely and try and beat him today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 059 (Winners: 7th and 9th, second: 8th)
Race 6 :4: Red Elysees (7-2)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Hot King Prawn (7-5)
Race 7 :4: Time Warp (9-5)
Race 10 :1: Hang’s Decision (36-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :6: Amazing Star (9-2): Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 4 :3: Ambitious Heart (8-1): Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 7 :14: Nassa (18-1): Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire. (May be a little out of his weight class in today’s race making a jump from Class 2-104 to a Group three race-110.)

Race 8 :1: Circuit Hassler (3-1): Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 :14: Call Me Awesome (13-1): In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. (Unfortunately, he’s not racing at his preferable Happy Valley course.)

Race 10 :4: Jolly Jolly (13-1): Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 ¾ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :1: Great Joy (10-1) Race *791
Race 8 :3: Jolly Gene (27-1) Race 104

Key Plays:
Race 6 :4: Red Elysees (7-2)
Race 8 :1: Circuit Hassler (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :12: Sweet Home (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Doyeni (11-1)
Race 9 :14: Call Me Awesome (13-1)
Race 10 :4: Jolly Jolly (13-1)

woodbinepmi
11-06-2017, 07:03 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 5, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed
Key Races: 074 and 093

Notes for the day: Track was a little faster than normal due to the rail position and the installation of the winter rye grass. In the first both Amazing Star and Alcari picked up enough points to go up to Class 3. Undefeated Hot King Prawn picked up 9 rating points up to 77, so will pick 9 to 10 pounds next out while still racing at the same class level. Diamond King closed well late in that same race, look for him to go further. Was off on the first time starter Conte, won for fun while breaking from the 12 gate, should improve off that effort in class 3 with the weight allowance. Will give Red Elysees out of race 6 another try next out, was caught in on the rail with no running room in the stretch and Jolly Jolly in the 10th. Nassa picked up 18 points winning the Group Three Ladies’ Purse, Circuit Land, Eagle Way and Rocketeer encountered enough trouble to have a line drawn thru their races.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #5 Fifty Fifty: Went off as the 1.9-1 favourite, broke well from the 2 hole sat around three lengths back off the eventual longshot winner who was able to get a comfortable lead on a track that was favouring front runners most of the day. Was pinned in on the rail in the third flight entering the stretch, Teetan forced his way out and bumping Healthy Joy at the 280 metre mark (the move cost Teetan 2 racing days), when clear really started moving in the final 150 metres of the race only to lose out by a neck. Picked up 2 points for a total of 91 which will allow him to run in a 95-75 Class 2 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #9 Winner St. Paul’s: Won a very slow Class 5 race while getting a perfect trip.

Speed Figures:
1sst (163): 99
2nd (164): 89
3rd (165): 100#
4th (166): -96
5th (167): +96
6th (168): 96
7th (169): +112
8th (170): 98
9th (171): +100
10th (172): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
11-06-2017, 11:21 PM
Joao Moreira involved in a spill on the Melbourne Cup undercard, nasty spill. No broken bones in the report, just very sore.

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2118702/magic-man-joao-moreira-ruled-out-melbourne-cup-after-falling-regal

proximity
11-07-2017, 12:14 AM
lor will probably get winner st paul's back up to a 95 on your numbers woodbine. he's almost an automatic play right now.

i don't want to be a keyboard warrior like these australian punters but i'm about to stop picking and betting moreira. he just doesn't come in for me. the hk cards are more interesting when he doesn't ride but i do hope he's ok as i don't want to see anyone hurt, human or equine.

great thread and great circuit to follow though. could only be better with american saddlecloths. :)

proximity
11-07-2017, 05:52 PM
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"??? :confused:

woodbinepmi
11-07-2017, 06:56 PM
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"??? :confused:

On - is their opening odds
td - their current odds.

woodbinepmi
11-07-2017, 06:59 PM
Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Twentieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees Few Clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171108_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171108_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 :11: Generous Heart (7-2): Is 0 for 5 in Class 3 after holding off a longshot in his last at the Class 4 level in a very average time.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won)
Race *722 (winners: 7th & 10th, second: 2nd)
Race 8 :10: Perpetual Treasure (35-1
)
Race *792 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 3 :7: Funny Buddies (25-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :3: Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 4 :5: Trendy Win (9-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 5 :5: Fairy Twins (14-1)
Race 6 :5: Goodheart Success (24-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1): Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 7 :9: Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :12: The Sylph (10-1) Race 012


Key Play:
Race 3 :6: Multigogo (5-2)
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :3: Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 5 :1: Golden Harvest (14-1)
Race 6 :12: The Sylph (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Grace Heart (11-1)
Race 8 :4: House Of Fun (13-1)

proximity
11-07-2017, 11:57 PM
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2118866/sore-joao-moreira-miss-happy-valley-meeting

breaking news: moreira's out for happy valley.....

proximity
11-08-2017, 06:17 AM
November 5 guesses for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :10:lucky lucky :1:
race 2: :9:winner st paul's :11::7::12: ($20.50 w, $11.50 p, $27.50 omni)
race 3: pass race
race 4: :2:i'm a witness
race 5: :13:midnite promise :6::2:
race 6: :1:great joy :4:
race 7: :4:time warp ($12 place)
race 8: :8:tai smart :1::6::7:
race 9: :1:spicy sure ($13.50 place)
race 10: :10:big bang bong :2::5:

last time: worst session yet with only winner st paul's crossing the line first. time warp and spicy sure get gobbled up late. :bang:

season: win 15/50 (1.01 roi) place 24/50 (0.75 roi) quinella 3/66 (0.60 roi) omni 9/66 (0.90 roi)

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :4: savannah wind :2:
race 2: :7: elegance promise :11:
race 3: :10: otouto
race 4: :10: supreme storm :12:
race 5: :6: new elegance :1:
race 6: :4:jade fortune :12:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:starlight

woodbinepmi
11-09-2017, 01:38 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 8, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Speed
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: With the winter rye planted and very little rain lately in Hong Kong and also the rail out to the B position speed was holding a lot better than normal. Race 8 was a little above average for a Class 2 race at the Valley while races 2, 3 and 7 were a little light. In Race 4 Forever Posh closed well against the bias after running very rank in the early stages. The winner of Race 5 Fantastic Eight picked up 8 rating points off his easy victory while running a figure that will have him competing against Class 2 runners next out with the weight break. Going to give Grace Heart out of Race 7 another go second time in a row that he was compromised at the break being knocked sideways and forcing him to race near the back. Was hoping the judges wouldn’t give Archippus any points after his bad draw and making a nice move against the bias only to be beaten by Born In China who ran a huge figure, but unfortunately he was rewarded ONE point which will move him up to Class 1. That race looks to have a good chance of becoming a key race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #1 Breeders’ Star: Drew the 9 post with the short run to the hook at 1200 metres at the Valley, was caught flat footed when the gates opened costing him at least a length to the field but worse all putting him in a position against the track that night. Was able to save ground in the turn, closed well in the stretch only to be a length and a half off the winner while only being hit twice in the stretch by Callan, looked full of run in the gallop out.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 4 #6 Curling Luxury: Had a perfect trip and was still only able to get up by a neck and not getting to his proper lead foot while beating the favourite who raced against the track and surrendered 17 pounds to this one.

Speed Figures:
1st (173): +94
2nd (174): 95
3rd (175): -94
4th (176): 97
5th (177): 105#
6th (178): -99
7th (179): 98
8th (180): 108

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

proximity
11-09-2017, 08:05 PM
Key Play:
Race 3 :6: Multigogo (5-2)
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1)



nice win there on bank on red.

market went up to $9!! :cool:

woodbinepmi
11-10-2017, 05:41 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 11th the twenty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% chance of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171111_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171111_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :7: Acturiat (9-2): Just missed in his last after going wide and be beaten by the favourite at 45-1, going to play against the maiden in Hong Kong that was his win effort.

Race 7 :7: Limitless (8-5): May be missing something here but can’t figure out why they are betting him so heavily in here? Has been off since July and even those races aren’t fast enough to win this.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *705 (winners: 3rd, 6th & 7th, second: 8th)
Race 8 :2: Fortune Patrol (122-1)

Race 060 (winners: 3rd & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 4 :6: Regency Darling (24-1)

Race 093 (winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :8: Wish Come True (85-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :6: Regency Darling (24-1)
Race 6 :4: Back In Black (29-1)
Race 9 :1: Rattan (5-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :3: Super Hoppy (9-2): In his debut race in Hong Kong after going 3 for 3 in Australia where he raced right off the leaders, raced in the back early on Sunday. Was 2 wide in the turn then was stuck behind by a great wall in the stretch, squeezed his way thru at the 200 metre mark, continued to the wire while never really having an opportunity to catch the winner who ran an above average time for the class.

Race 10 :3: World Record (3-1): Had been off since July and drew the 10 hole in his debut for the season. Took a slight jump at the break, was very insignificant due to his usual running position, after-wards settled at the back racing around 8 lengths off the leader while the eventual winner was running all alone on a track that favoured front runners. Was stuck behind a wall at the 400 metre mark, had to be taken up slightly at the 320 mark, finally when room became available he exploded to the wire but the race was already decided by then.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 7 :1: Booming Delight (8-1)
Race 10 :3: World Record (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :1: Right Honourable (17-1)
Race 5 :10: Bossiee (14-1)
Race 6 :4: Back In Black (29-1)
Race 10 :13: G-One Lover (16-1)

proximity
11-10-2017, 11:49 PM
today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :4: savannah wind :2:
race 2: :7: elegance promise :11:
race 3: :10: otouto
race 4: :10: supreme storm :12:
race 5: :6: new elegance :1:
race 6: :4:jade fortune :12:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:starlight

last time: 0 for everything in a truly embarrassing performance. :bang:

season: win 15/57 (0.88) place 24/57 (0.65) quinella 3/71 (0.56) Omni 9/71 (0.83)

tonight's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :10:brilliant monkeys :12::9:
race 2: pass race
race 3: :14:indigenous star :11:
race 4: :9:numero uno :11:
race 5: pass race
race 6: :8:young legend
race 7: :3:western express :10::5:
race 8: :3: bravo watchman :5::11:
race 9: :6: tai smart :13:
race 10: :8:volitation

woodbinepmi
11-13-2017, 05:44 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 11, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *778, 094 and 098

Notes for the day:
Races 2, 5 and 7 came back a little soft for their respective levels, while the 10th was a very tough Class 3 race. Very poor showing for the So’s first time starters in Hong Kong, heavily bet Gouten Of Garo in the second ran an inexcusable effort in a very slow Class 4 event. Smart Charade was wide after drawing the 12 post in the fourth and was hand ridden to the wire, while Eighty Eighty had enough trouble to give him another chance. In the fourth Dashing Dart, Numero Uno, Har Mar Heart and Royale Elegance’s races can be drawn thru with all the trouble they encountered. World Record earned a figure that will make him competitive in Class 1 what with the weight allowance, he drew away easily with plenty in the tank.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 1 #10 Brilliant Monkeys: Had been away since June, he needed the break because his efforts before that were very uninspiring. After being bet down to 9-2 was bumped sideways at the break forcing him to the rear of the field, was in tight on the turn full of run while traveling in the 2 path. Moved out to the 5 lane entering the stretch and continued a nice move all the way to the wire but was unable to catch the lone speed winner, galloped out very nicely past the line.

Race 4 #11 Royal Elegance: Was very unlucky in the draw with the 13 post, broke with a little more action than usual and became rank soon afterwards when Pebble grabbed his head to take him back. Had to check up at the 650 mark when Har Har Heart started to want to get out, split two at the 250 spot and closed to within a head bob of the co-favourite, with his figure 2 points above par for Class 4.

Race 5 #5 Eighty Eighty: One of So’s heavily bet first time starters who drew the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at the 1200 metres distance. Was bumped pretty hard at the start by the outside runner Sincere Dragon, then rushed up near the front runners without being asked by Moreira, raced 4 wide in the turn under a strangle hold, all the while the eventual winner was able to get an uncontested early lead and setting a very slow middle section. Ran even thru the lane while not being able to make up the ground on the winner, Moreira wrapped up on him at the 150 metres mark.

Race 10 #5 Ping Hai Star: Drew a very difficult field for his first try in Hong Kong for Size and Moreira while exiting out of the 14 hole. Of course with the connections was bet down to 7-2 as the second choice at the windows. Took a left turn out of the gate costing him his usual running style at the front that he had been showing in his barrier trials, raced at the rear in the 3 path was blocked for the early part of the stretch but forced his way clear at the 200 metre mark the same time the eventual winner favourite was making his winning move. Moreira put the stick away for the final 50 metres after not being able to close the distance on the winner while never getting to his proper lead step. Galloped out past the winner after the wire, should improve with a go under his belt in his next after only picking up 2 rating points up to a total of 74.

Horses to avoid next out:

Speed Figures:
1st (181): 91
2nd (182): 87 ?
3rd (183): 97
4th (184): +98
5th (185): -93
6th (186): 102
7th (187): 104
8th (188): 101
9th (189): 98 #
10th (190): 105

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
11-14-2017, 08:35 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 15, 2017 Twenty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Few clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171115_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171115_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *721 (winners: 2nd and 9th, second: 1st and 10th)
Race 8 :6: Happy Spirit (27-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th and 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :9: Balay Balay (19-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :4: Double Master (17-1)
Race 3 :4: Bond Elegance (12-1)
Race 4 :1: Happy And Healthy (9-1)
Race 6 :11: Smart Declaration (14-1)
Race 7 :3: Victory Boys (5-1)
Race 8 :10: Lucky Girl (5-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :10: Super Form (7-1): Even though the race came back a little slow for its class, he had a real eventful race while going 2 wide in the first turn, then 4 wide in the turn for home and having to move almost to the outside rail in the stretch only to be beaten by a head against a rival who was able to save ground on the rail in the turns.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 7 :10: Super Form (7-1)
Race 8 :10: Lucky Girl (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 :5: Pearl Warm Warm (30-1)
Race 6 :1: Fortune Bo Bo (21-1)
Race 7 :8: Photon Willie (14-1)

proximity
11-15-2017, 04:49 AM
tonight's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :10:brilliant monkeys :12::9:
race 2: pass race
race 3: :14:indigenous star :11: ($27 w, $13 p)
race 4: :9:numero uno :11:
race 5: pass race
race 6: :8:young legend ($45.50 p)
race 7: :3:western express :10::5: ($27.50 w, $12.50 p, $30 Omni)
race 8: :3: bravo watchman :5::11: ($11.50 p)
race 9: :6: tai smart :13:
race 10: :8:volitation

last time: Moreira gets indigenous star and western express under the line first. if he stays inside maybe he wins with bravo watchman who is nipped by longshot golden sun? young legend hits the place line to give me my best place price of the season and I believe my first profitable session in that market?

season: win 17/65 (0.86 roi), place 28/65 (0.70), quinella 3/80 (0.50), Omni 10/80 (0.78)

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :10: kim glory :7::3::4::1:
race 2: :12:spicy double :3::2:
race 3: :4: bond elegance :6::2:
race 4: :7: never better :4:
race 5: :3: exceptional desire :11::1::6:
race 6: :9: wayfong Vinnie :7::12:
race 7: :2: red marvel :4:
race 8: :5: big bang bong

woodbinepmi
11-17-2017, 12:04 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 15, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 086, 143 & 147

Notes for the day: The first and the fourth came back a little light for their respective classes. Phantom Falcon earned a nice figure out of the 3rd and should be competitive in Class 3 if he gets a nice draw with the weight break going up in class, after running 4 seconds out of 5 races he may have figured out it’s better to have your picture taken then going straight to the test barn. The final time in the 5th may have been an effect of the slow pace, will look closely at Born Dragon next time out though after all the trouble he had to endure. Will try and beat Keep Moving in his next go, his number went down in this win but had to dig down for the extra effort while defeating Money Boy who had a much tougher trip. Super Form ran a good race for me while just missing by a neck after having to travel the wide way around. Watch the final and judge for yourself how much trouble Pikachu and Beauty Prince encountered in it to see if it was significant enough to put on the watch list. Send me a message and tell me what you think.
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/Results/english/Local/20171115/HV/8 (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/Results/english/Local/20171115/HV/8)

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 #2 Gallant Return: In his second lifetime try where he had run a game second to Fantastic Show in a Griffin race last September. Drew the 9 hole and the services of Mr. Purton who took him straight to the back in order to save as much ground as possible all while the eventual winner was loose on the lead. He then became a little rank half-way down the backside, moved well in the stretch gaining on the leader while racing in traffic like a veteran, Zach only went to the stick 3 times in the final 70 metres. Should be sitting on a win if he can get a little more pace, didn’t pick up any rating points to stay at 59 and stay in Class 4.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #3 Exceptional Desire: A front runner who was able to get an easy lead in a slow paced race after breaking from the rail. Was out run by Confucius Spirit (25-1) who did have a 16 pound weight allowance but Exceptional Desire gave up the lead without much of an effort in the final 100 metres, was a quick pull-up soon after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (191): 90
2nd (192): 91
3rd (193): 99 #
4th (194): 93
5th (195): -93
6th (196): 100
7th (197): -99 #
8th (198): +105

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
11-18-2017, 01:46 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 19, 2017 Twenty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 71 degrees cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171119_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171119_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :4: Ensuring (5-2): Hasn’t won since July 5, 2015 and is only 1 for 25 at Sha Tin, always seems to be there but never comes thru.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *684 (winners: 1st, 4th & 8th)
Race 3 :11: Compassion Star (8-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :3: Crown Avenue (5-2)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :5: Hang’s Decision (28-1)
Race 9 :10: Happy Journey (27-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :12: Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. (May be in a little over his head in here, was hoping for another Class 2 race)

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :9: Gorgeous Again (13-1) Race 074
Race 5 :12: Circuit Hassler (8-1) Race 130

Key Plays:
Race 5 :1: Rocketeer (8-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Bubbles (2-1)
Race 9 :8: Top Beautiful (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Ambitious Pins (22-1)
Race 4 :14: Happy Contender (19-1)
Race 5 :6: Prawn Baba (10-1)
Race 9 :9: Starship (19-1)
Race 10 :6: Momentum Lucky (26-1)

The Coomster
11-18-2017, 07:13 PM
I thought both runners you mentioned as possibly compromised sat the trip patiently until they straightened up. They both had time to uncoil and come at the lead, but neither offered much more than an even kick late. The wide rally at HV usually seems better than the inside “wait and strike”, but rail runners must show something to get a pass and these two didnt, atleast for me. I will follow both for educational purposes. Good punting.

proximity
11-18-2017, 10:55 PM
today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :10: kim glory :7::3::4::1:
race 2: :12:spicy double :3::2:
race 3: :4: bond elegance :6::2: ($41 place)
race 4: :7: never better :4: ($15 place, $66.50 Omni)
race 5: :3: exceptional desire :11::1::6: ($13 place, $99 Omni)
race 6: :9: wayfong Vinnie :7::12:
race 7: :2: red marvel :4: ($18.50 place)
race 8: :5: big bang bong ($14 place)

last time: completely blanked to win as the slump continues. five picks hit the place line and I get a pair of omnis for small profits in those markets. quinellas, as usual, are donations.

season: win 17/73 (0.76) place 33/73 (0.76) quin 3/95 (0.42) Omni 12/95 (0.83)

today's picks for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :11: furious Pegasus :6:
race 2: :8: good fit
race 3: :6: noble de love :11:
race 4: :4:ensuring
race 5: :2: dinozzo :4::11:
race 6: :4:gold mount :3:
race 7: :1:luck bubbles :3:
race 8: :8: horse of fortune :12::1::6:
race 9: :8: top beautiful :2:
race 10: :7: jing jing win :1:

woodbinepmi
11-20-2017, 05:42 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 19, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Closers on the turf
Key Races: 080 and 134

Notes for the day: Race 3 came back very soft even with the final time in line with par. Enduring in the fourth ran his usual race looking like a winner at the top of the lane but never kicked in enough to get up first to the wire. Amazing Agility in that same race ran a very nice race considering he was forced wide again. In the first of the Graded races, Time Warp put a scare in Werther what with Berry really having to get into him to get by Time Warp at the line, Moore had made reference to Werther being not in 100% for this race the out should have him good to go for December. Very strange race with Leung letting Harbour Master get away from him in the backside. In the Sprint Chadwick on Peniaphobia took the lead then slammed the brakes on him in the turn causing a serious traffic jam helping Mr Stunning with him racing wide not getting caught up in it. They don’t take too kindly on that kind of riding in Hong Kong, and was severely reprimanded for it. Watch list horse Sichuan Dar ran a game race in the Mile only losing by 2 at 58-1, hopefully he’ll be dropped back down to his proper class. Beat The Clock continues to improve, exploded to the wire under a hand ride carrying top weight against a good Class 2 field, out of that same race look closely for Fortune Booth to win next time out.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 5 #4 Sacred Elixir: Made a nice improvement in his second race in Hong Kong, was outrun in the stretch by the Moreira ridden favourite Dinozzo after racing two lengths off the leader on a track that looked to be favouring closers especially on the outside. Picks up 3 points for a total of 95, hopefully he can draw in to a 95-75 Class 2 instead of the 100-80 like he did in here.

Race 7 #1 Lucky Bubbles: In one word ‘Disaster’ is how Purton responded after the run. Broke well enough into a good position off the leaders on the rail but when Chadwick decided to slow everything down he was forced to check up then became rank for the next 200 metres, later when trying to force his way into a hole had to be taken up again when Dashing Fellow came over onto him at the 300 mark, finished up under a hand ride on the rail while Mr Stunning was running away for his easy check.

Race 7 #9 D B Pin: Is a real game runner, gives an honest run every time even though he’s probably in a little out of his weight class. Was taken back out of the duel entering the turn but then was forced to alter his course after Peniaphobia slow everything up, then was stuck behind a wall entering the stretch had a hole but looked like the hole was moving a little quicker than he was, wasn’t helped with Not Listenin’tome keep drifting in and out in front of him. Closed well to the wire when Not Listenin’tome finally threw in the anchor and gave him a clear lane to scoot thru, hopefully he’ll find an easier spot next out in a Class 1 or a lower Graded race.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

Speed Figures:
1st (199): 92
2nd (200): 96
3rd (201): 95
4th (202): 102
5th (203): 104
6th (204): -109
7th (205): 109 #
8th (206): 110
9th (207): 100
10th (208): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
11-21-2017, 08:42 PM
Hong Kongat Happy Valley. November 22, 2017 Twenty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% rain Wind: N 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171122_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171122_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :9: Haymaker (4-1): Lifetime of 1 for 30, 1for 19 at the Valley and winless at this level, no thanks.

Race 4 :6: Golden Effort (4-1): It’s a lot to ask for a first time starter to break from the rail with the short turn soon after the break, if he doesn’t get out well he will be all caught up in the wash.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 098 (winners: 1st, 2nd & 4th)
Race 6 :2: Jade Theatre (7-1)

Race 147 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :6: Treasure Gold (7-1)
Race 1 :9: Haymaker (4-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :5: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 2 :5: Wealthy Fortune (21-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :12: Merrygowin (7-2)
Race 8 :5: Magnetism (13-1)

Key Play:
Race 2 :1: Proud Sky (10-1)
Race 7 :1: Super Fluke (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :5: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 5 :1: Amazing Feeling (14-1)
Race 8 :8: Go Go Win (13-1)


HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

proximity
11-22-2017, 05:52 AM
today's picks for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :11: furious Pegasus :6:
race 2: :8: good fit ($184.50 w, $46.50 p)
race 3: :6: noble de love :11:
race 4: :4:ensuring ($14 p)
race 5: :2: dinozzo :4::11: ($31.50 w, $15.50 p, $85 quin, $35 Omni)
race 6: :4:gold mount :3:
race 7: :1:luck bubbles :3:
race 8: :8: horse of fortune :12::1::6:
race 9: :8: top beautiful :2: ($13.50 p, 23.50 Omni)
race 10: :7: jing jing win :1:

last time: (finally) strike big with good fit (184.50 win) and appear to be headed for a good day when dinozzo (31.50w) takes the fifth and I get a (very) rare quinella. the rest of the card's pretty much a disaster though. gold mount is outclassed, lucky bubbles gets in trouble about four times, horse of fortune gets jenny's blessing before burning huge late money, and top beautiful is outkicked by an 80-1 shot before jing jing win disappoints in the finale.

season: win 19/83 (0.93 roi) place 37/83 (0.78) quinella 4/106 (0.46) Omni 14/106 (0.80)

today's guesses for happy valley

key (contend)

race 1: :10: glory horsie :9::2:
race 2: :10: island flyer :7:
race 3: :7: the full bloom
race 4: pass race
race 5: :3:sichuan boss :8::12:
race 6: :8:sir redalot :7:
race 7: :4:simply brilliant :2::7:
race 8: :9:relentless me :6::8:

Parkview_Pirate
11-22-2017, 11:45 AM
woodbinepmi, thanks for starting and maintaining the thread. I woke up early enough to play a few races from HV, but forgot to check your selections until the last race. Nice pick with the :5: at 11-1, and I also see you reeled in the winner of the 7th.

Keep up the good work.:ThmbUp:

woodbinepmi
11-22-2017, 02:37 PM
Thank You Sir.

proximity
11-23-2017, 12:42 AM
woodbinepmi, thanks for starting and maintaining the thread. I woke up early enough to play a few races from HV, but forgot to check your selections until the last race. Nice pick with the :5: at 11-1, and I also see you reeled in the winner of the 7th.

Keep up the good work.:ThmbUp:

yes, great thread woodbine!!

woodbinepmi
11-23-2017, 08:28 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 22, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 071, 135 & 173

Notes for the day: The 7th race was an above average Class 3 race, while I will try and avoid anything out of the 3rd. In the first the short priced Haymaker ran his usual race, close but just not fast enough, he did have an excuse being checked in the stretch in a quickly run Class 5 race. Like in the first, the chalk in the second Le Panache had to be steadied with 300 meteres to go when Wealthy Fortune came in on him. I played against the first time starter on the rail for Shum Golden Effort, was hoping to see something from him to play him the next time out but he put in a real clunker and was pretty much eased the final 200 metres. In the 5th as good a ride as Mo gave on the winner, Poon was the opposite, he broke a little slow then rushed (panicked) him to the lead while going very wide in the first turn he was done by the stretch. In the sixth 3 riders: Berry, Schofield and Callan received 2 days each for their rides in the stretch, playing bumper cars isn’t allowed in Hong Kong, with the winner Sir Redalot going wide into the stretch and was lucky to avoid the mess. Unfortunately, it looks as if the days of Super Fluke being an A.T.M. machine are done, he’s finally picked up enough points to move into Class 2 where he’s going to find the going a little tougher than he may want. You couldn’t have gotten a better trip than what Leung gave on Magnetism in the finale.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #7 Diamond Master: Was lucky to draw the rail after drawing outside post lately, broke well and sat right off the leaders and was more full of run than what he’s been normally showing lately. Was making a move to the front at the 250 mark when Berry on Storm Signal came out and forced Lai to severely take up on him, he put the stick away and just let him gallop out afterwards.

Race 7 #4 Simply Brilliant: In his first race in Hong Kong drew a tough Class 3 event while being bet down to the 9-2 second choice. Sat around four lengths off the front runner on the backside, looked like he was going to get up at the 200 metre mark but was just a little short after not racing since his last race at Ascot in June. Was just beaten by a neck to Super Fluke in his third straight win, he picked up 3 rating points off that effort and will be allowed to run again in Class 3, look for him at Sha Tin next time.

Horses to avoid next out:
Anything out of Race 3 (211)

Speed Figures:
1st (209): 95 #
2nd (210): -92
3rd (211): 93
4th (212): 95
5th (213): -94 #
6th (214): 102
7th (215): 101
8th (216): 100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
11-25-2017, 02:13 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 26, 2017 Twenty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 74 degrees Cloudy 0% rain Wind: N 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 11.45pm ET, 8.45pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171126_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171126_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :8: Strathclyde (9-2): Even though he’s unbeaten on the dirt both those wins have been at a lower class than what he’s facing today, in his last he was aided by a severe front running bias and was all out to beat a class 4 longshot that didn’t get to his proper lead step in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *684 (winners: 1st, 4th, 8th and 11th)
Race 4 :7: Brilliant Dream (8-1)

Race 135 (winners: 1st & 9th, second: 3rd, 4th and 5th)
Race 3 :6: Dashing Gainer (58-1)
Race 10 :9: Right Call (17-1)

Race 143 (winners: 2nd and 3rd, second: 4th and 5th)
Race 9 :2: WinWin Ruby (25-1)
Race 10 :13: Art Of Raw (27-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 8 :3: Pingwu Spark (2-1)
Race 10 :9: Right Call (17-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :1: Pick Number One (2-1): First time starter that went off as the betting favourite and won with ease against a fairly decent Class 4 field while running a final speed figure 6 points faster than par. Engaged in a duel immediately out of the gate which lasted for 850 meteres until Beekley threw in the towel at the top of the lane and still held off the top 2 weights with ease. Picked up 8 rating points to a total of 60, which will keep him in Class 4 for another try carrying 133 pounds.

Race 2 :6: Better Choice(10-1): First time starter for So was totally cold on the board at 77-1. Was a step slow out of the gate, became a little rank on the backside then took Ng 3 wide in to the turn, then shifted to the 6 path for the run home had to shift slightly when Accession Years came into his path. Really took off at the 150 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders (Was hoping he would have stayed at Happy Valley).

Race 4 :10: Royal Elegance (6-1): Was very unlucky in the draw with the 13 post, broke with a little more action than usual and became rank soon afterwards when Pebble grabbed his head to take him back. Had to check up at the 650 mark when Har Har Heart started to want to get out, split two at the 250 spot and closed to within a head bob of the co-favourite, with his figure 2 points above par for Class 4.

Race 6 :7: Fifty Fifty (2-1): Went off as the 1.9-1 favourite, broke well from the 2 hole sat around three lengths back off the eventual longshot winner who was able to get a comfortable lead on a track that was favouring front runners most of the day. Was pinned in on the rail in the third flight entering the stretch, Teetan forced his way out and bumping Healthy Joy at the 280 metre mark (the move cost Teetan 2 racing days), when clear really started moving in the final 150 metres of the race only to lose out by a neck. (Ho chose to run him in Class 1 and get the weight allowance instead of going top weight in Class 2).

Race 9 :4: Ping Hai Star (5-2): Drew a very difficult field for his first try in Hong Kong for Size and Moreira while exiting out of the 14 hole. Of course with the connections was bet down to 7-2 as the second choice at the windows. Took a left turn out of the gate costing him his usual running style at the front that he had been showing in his barrier trials, raced at the rear in the 3 path was blocked for the early part of the stretch but forced his way clear at the 200 metre mark the same time the eventual winner favourite was making his winning move. Moreira put the stick away for the final 50 metres after not being able to close the distance on the winner while never getting to his proper lead step. Galloped out past the winner after the wire, should improve with a go under his belt in his next after only picking up 2 rating points up to a total of 74.

Race 9 :5: Cheerful Boy (24-1): A front running type, leaped out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths to the herd but more importantly has position as a leader. Entered the first turn climbing, and closed well in the stretch after saving ground and only given a couple crosses and a few love taps on his flank. Race came back a little quick for a Class 3 event.

Race 9 :8: Such A Happiness (25-1): Was bet down as the 7-2 favourite after moving up in class after a nice win, drew the rail in a full 14 horse field, raced mid-pack while saving ground, was full of run entering the stretch but was boxed in with no exit plan available, tried to avoid the tiring front runner but was bumped multiple times by Winston’s Lad. (Is coming off the vet's list from his last race with a lame right hind leg)

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :1: Call Me Awesome (18-1) Race 078
Race 6 :9: Jolly Jolly (21-1) Race 136

Key Plays:
Race 4 :10: Royal Elegance (6-1)
Race 9 :4: Ping Hai Star (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 10 :3: Home Run (15-1)


Lagniappe: Give the 7 points tomorrow to Toronto in The Grey Cup, Stamps have been waiting all year for this, should be a blowout.

proximity
11-25-2017, 09:48 PM
today's guesses for happy valley ($10 hk prices)

key (contend)

race 1: :10: glory horsie :9::2:
race 2: :10: island flyer :7:
race 3: :7: the full bloom
race 4: pass race
race 5: :3:sichuan boss :8::12:
race 6: :8:sir redalot :7: ($38.50 win, $17 place)
race 7: :4:simply brilliant :2::7: ($22 p, $46.50 Omni)
race 8: :9:relentless me :6::8:

last time: the struggle continues with only sir redalot (38.50) getting under the line first. simply brilliant hits the place line.

season: win 20/90 (0.90) place 39/90 (0.76) quinella 4/116 (0.42) Omni 15/116 (0.77)

today's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: pass race
race 2: :1:pick number one :8:
race 3: :7:moment of power :5::12::1:
race 4: :10:royal elegance :3::2:
race 5: :1:star of yan oi :11::8:
race 6: :6:citron spirit :4::7:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:time to celebrate
race 9::6:more than lucky:7::4:
race 10: :14:conte :9::3:

woodbinepmi
11-27-2017, 09:00 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 26, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: 107, 148 & 172

Notes for the day: Big favourite Super Missile (54) in the first had a little trouble at the break (watch list). Pick Number One (61) couldn’t repeat his maiden win on the dirt to the turf but still had a nice run, picked up the point from the handicappers which will send him up to Class 3, should be fine up there especially on the dirt. The fourth collapsed after the early pace and Sacred Ibis (62) was at the right place at the right time to take advantage of the situation paying $50.20. Strathclyde (69) showed more heart than I thought he had, just missing out while conceding 13 pounds to the 19-1 winner. After that race the day became very chalky, with Fifty Fifty (98) getting seven more points, that’s a total of 27 since his debut in Hong Kong last June, real deep water to come for him now. Both Pingwu Spark (97) and Premiere (104) outclassed their rivals, Morethanlucky (74) has an appropriate name what with holding off Ping Hai Star (77) who had all kinds of trouble in his trip, will give him another go next time out. Conte (69) toyed with his competition, he too should be climbing up the class ladder with runs like that, he still showed that he still has a few things to learn, switching leads late in the lane.

Horses to watch for list:
Race 1 #7 Super Missile (54): Was bet down as a huge favourite after his barrier trial when he ran with Mr. Stunning (130) and Beat The Clock (99), he stumbled out of the gate and was caught up in the middle of the pack, followed the eventual winner thru the heard showing nice composer for a first time starter, was asked only slightly by Purton near the wire, look for him to go a little further in his next race.

Race 6 #8 Exultant (93): In his second race at HKJC after he ran a game 5th only losing by 2 lengths after encountering trouble to Western Express (112) in his debut, caught another bear in Fifty Fifty (98). Was caught a little flat footed at the start sending him sideways into Romantic Touch, settled around seven lengths in the back by himself with a quick pace to run at, moved to the 6 path entering the stretch really took off at the 300 metre mark switched back to his wrong lead at the 170 mark but continued to close on the big favourite only to lose by a half-length, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Race 7 #4 House Of Fun (100): Off as the betting choice with Moreira on board, threw his head at the break costing him at least a length and a half to the pack, soon settled behind the leaders waiting for his opportunity to pounce but when Moreira moved him to the rail at the 200 metre mark he had to be slightly taken up while at the same time the winner Premiere was being asked to run by Teetan, House re-broke when clear and closed only to be beaten by the camera and was well clear of the field in the gallop out.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 5 #12 Borntoachieve (66): Was helped by a nice pace duel on the front end, Mo had to get to his bottom to catch the favourite Strathclyde (69) at the wire while getting 13 pound break in weight.

Speed Figures:
1stt (217): 96
2nd (218): +99 #
3rd (219): 99
4th (220): +98
5th (221): 101
6th (222): +104
7th (223): -104
8th (224): 102
9th (225): 101
10th (226): -103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
11-28-2017, 06:02 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 29, 2017 Twenty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171129_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171129_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :9: Premium Champion (4-1): Was pretty much eased in the last 150 metres and was quickly grabbed up after the wire, now he’s going 2200 metres and is only 3 for 35 lifetime in Hong Kong.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *780 (winners: 5th & 6th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :5: Hall Of Fame (28-1)

Race 107 (winners: 1st & 2nd, second: 3rd & 4th)
Race 6 :1: Flying Tourbillon (15-1)

Race 147 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 4 :6: Victory Duke (6-1)

Race 173 (winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :2: G-One Union ( 29-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :3: Good method (14-1)
Race 5 :3: House Of Luck (16-1)
Race 6 :9: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)
Race 7 :8: Happy Surveys (16-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 1 :7: Brilliant Monkeys (7-2): Had been away since June, he needed the break because his efforts before that were very uninspiring. After being bet down to 9-2 was bumped sideways at the break forcing him to the rear of the field, was in tight on the turn full of run while traveling in the 2 path. Moved out to the 5 lane entering the stretch and continued a nice move all the way to the wire but was unable to catch the lone speed winner, galloped out very nicely past the line.

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :9: Laughing Lord (30-1) Race 040
Race 8 :3: Land Grant (8-1) Race *750

Key Plays:
Race 1 :7: Brilliant Monkeys (7-2)
Race 4 :6: Victory Dude (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Numero Uno (10-1)
Race 6 :1: Flying Tourbillon (15-1)

proximity
11-29-2017, 02:12 AM
today's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: pass race
race 2: :1:pick number one :8: (10.50 P, 24 omni)
race 3: :7:moment of power :5::12::1:
race 4: :10:royal elegance :3::2:
race 5: :1:star of yan oi :11::8:
race 6: :6:citron spirit :4::7: (21 p, 39.50 omni)
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:time to celebrate (11 p)
race 9::6:more than lucky:7::4: (16.50 w, 10.50 p, 29.50 q, 17 omni)
race 10: :14:conte :9::3: (15.50 w, 11.50 p)

last time: the struggle continues. more than lucky and conte finally get home first in the last two races but at odds on prices. i get a quinella but it only pays a pathetic 29.50.

season: win 22/98 (0.86 roi) place 44/98 (0.77 roi) quinella 5/130 (0.39 roi) omni 18/130 (0.75 roi)

guesses for happy valley:

race 1: :7: brilliant monkeys :6:
race 2: :4:glorious legacy :9::2::3:
race 3: :11: fruitful life :8::10::9:
race 4: :8:seven luck :4:
race 5: :8:confucius spirit :5::9::4:
race 6: :7: master albert
race 7: :12: enreaching :2:
race 8: :10: easy hedge :4::3:

cliffs notes: toss all the lor horses. ;)

woodbinepmi
11-30-2017, 07:49 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 29, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Pretty much an ordinary day at the races for the twenty-sixth race meet. In the first the pace was so slow that the final figure came back 20 points below par, so it was adjusted to a 89#, it seems to fall in line with how most of the runners have performed in their past in situations like this. Unlike the first, the second was quick for its class (there were separated variants between sprints and routes with the first excluded), very good effort by Good Choice Ahead (42) running a game third in a fast race after encountering trouble. Cheerfuljet (56) picked up 8 points beating a real bad field of Class 4 runners, when the top weight is only at 126 pounds you are not looking at the best of that class. It was a rating of 60-40, a first time starter Happy Warrior drew the top at 52. Mega Heart (79) might have made the watch list but was scoped after the race and was found to have bled badly, was very rank for a large portion of the race while going wide and was wrapped up early in the stretch. May want to look closely at Sharp Sailor (76) next time out, chased King Of Mongolia (72) who was allowed to get an easy slow lead, still almost caught the winner.

F.Y.I.: Next Wednesday will be the Longines International Jockey Championship, the American representative will be Flavien Prat (He’s French right?, oh well Allez Flavien).

Horse to watch for list:
None

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #12 Golden Cannon (27): Was winner of the odd run first race.

Speed Figures:
1st ( 227): -89#
2nd (228): 100
3rd (229): 96
4th (230): 90
5th (231): 98
6th (232): 98
7th (233): 100
8th (234): -100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

proximity
12-02-2017, 01:57 PM
guesses for happy valley: ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :7: brilliant monkeys :6:
race 2: :4:glorious legacy :9::2::3:
race 3: :11: fruitful life :8::10::9:
race 4: :8:seven luck :4: (13.50 place)
race 5: :8:confucius spirit :5::9::4:
race 6: :7: master albert ($14.50 place)
race 7: :12: enreaching :2:
race 8: :10: easy hedge :4::3: ($17 place, $47 Omni)


last time: reel in a $47 Omni in the finale, but another lousy day as our boat begins to drift away from the docks.

season: win 22/106 (0.80) place 47/106 (0.75) quinella 5/144 (0.36) Omni 19/144 (0.710

today's guesses for sha tin:

race 1: :9: the champ :11:
race 2: :1: sun touch :11:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :12: happy friendship :3:
race 5: :4: bond elegance
race 6: :7: dollar reward
race 7: pass race
race 8: :11: five stars agent :4:
race 9: :3: limitless :7:
race 10: :7: calculation :5:

woodbinepmi
12-02-2017, 10:23 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 3, 2017 Twenty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 75 degrees Clear 0% of rain Wind: N 5 to 10mph (headwind in the stretch).

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171203_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171203_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 172 (winners: 2nd, 3rd & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 9 :9: Fight Hero (12-1)

Race 173 (winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 4 :3: Rock The Tree (15-1)
Race 4 :4: Jimson The Famous (41-1)
Race 4 :11: Best Jade Triumph (18-1)
Race 4 :14: My Folks (27-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 :4: Hot King Prawn (8-5)
Race 10 :7: Calculation (11-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :2: Gallant Return(5-1): In his second lifetime try where he had run a game second to Fantastic Show in a Griffin race last September. Drew the 9 hole and the services of Mr. Purton who took him straight to the back in order to save as much ground as possible all while the eventual winner was loose on the lead. He then became a little rank half-way down the backside, moved well in the stretch gaining on the leader while racing in traffic like a veteran, Zach only went to the stick 3 times in the final 70 metres. Should be sitting on a win if he can get a little more pace, didn’t pick up any rating points to stay at 59 and stay in Class 4.

Race 9 :2: House Of Fun (6-1): Off as the betting choice with Moreira on board, threw his head at the break costing him at least a length and a half to the pack, soon settled behind the leaders waiting for his opportunity to pounce but when Moreira moved him to the rail at the 200 metre mark he had to be slightly taken up while at the same time the winner Premiere was being asked to run by Teetan, House re-broke when clear and closed only to be beaten by the camera and was well clear of the field in the gallop out.

Race 9 :4: Classic Emperor (8-1): Ran one of the most impressive races of the season so far, in his first try on the dirt defeating a big favourite in Divine Boy by almost 7 lengths who beat the third place runner by 2 lengths himself. Picked up a whopping 11 points off the effort, hopefully So will keep him on the dirt from now on.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :4: Willie Way (4-1) Race 099

Key Play:
Race 3 :2: Gallant Return (5-1)
Race 10 :4: Super Hoppy (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 6 :8: Turin Pearl (9-1)
Race 7 :12: Encore Boy (9-1)

kevb
12-03-2017, 01:27 AM
No HK racing on Xpressbet today. ??

lamboguy
12-03-2017, 06:15 AM
No HK racing on Xpressbet today. ??i got an email from them stating that they are still negotiating a contract and that they will not carry HK until they get it done

olddaddy
12-03-2017, 11:20 AM
Hope things are straighten out by next week, which is HKs big racing day.

woodbinepmi
12-04-2017, 11:03 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 3, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None on both Dirt and Turf
Key Races: 186 and 239

Notes for the day: The tracks looked at first glance to be favouring speed but after a careful look over I decided that it was playing more equal than rewarding horses something that actually wasn’t there. In the first the Runner-up Actuariat (36) ran a game race only losing by a half-length after Deleuze dropped his stick at the top of the stretch, also in that race Snowhooves (23) was totally blocked in the lane and was never able to fully extend himself, all the while with a loose front plate. Will play Gallant Return (60) again in Class 4 after running into some interference, and he caught a couple real nice runners in Sparkling Dragon (66) and Win Beauty Win (62), both of those graded out of Class 4. Hot King Pawn (89) picked up 12 points after his easy win, while drawing away without ever being asked by Zach with a speed figure coming back high enough to compete with Class 1 runners. House Of Fun (103) looked the winner in the ninth only to be caught at the wire by the longshot Fight Hero (93) who came out of Race 172, which now makes 4 winners and 2 seconds out of that single race. Have no explanation on Super Hoppy’s (74) performance in the 9th, it is two races in a row that he has been unable to get to his proper lead foot in the stretch, may be a sign of issues there.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #3 Turf Sprint (79): He doesn’t have the best record on the backside but does look to be rounding into top form and after running second to Hot King Prawn (89) may be sitting on it now. Beat the rest of the field with ease being 2 ¾ lengths in front of the third place runner. Figure came back a 102 which is almost a full length fast than par for Class 3 races.

Race 10 #13 C P Power (62): Broke at least a couple lengths behind the field at the start, on the positive side though it allowed him to settle in on the rail and save ground in the turn, BUT it would have ramifications in the end. Looked full of run in the turn but was caught all up in it with nowhere to go in the stretch, did show some run at the end while being passed on the far outside by the deep closer Diamond Dragon (68) who payed $ 70.60 to win.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Sparkling Dragon (66): Was able to get an easy lead and hold off a couple nice horses in Gallant Return (60) and Win Beauty Win (62) but Sam had to really get into him all the way down the lane and with him not getting to his proper lead, that may get up and bite him against Class 3 runners next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (235): 94
2nd (236): +99#
3rd (237): 95
4th (238): -93
5th (239): 96
6th (240): -97
7th (241): 108
8th (242): +96
9th (243): 104
10th (244): 101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I.: Wednesday’s races will start a little earlier than normal with the Jockeys’ Challenge there will be 9 races instead of the normal 8, also will have an open thread next Friday night for the Hong Kong International Races, so join in.

woodbinepmi
12-05-2017, 10:02 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 6, 2017 Twenty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 5.30am ET, 2.30 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171206_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171206_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :2: Yourthewonforme (2-1): Is 0 for 25 in his lifetime at the downtown track, did just get up at Sha Tin beating a 44-1 Actuariat who had a tougher trip going three wide in the turn without cover.

Race 5 :4: Exceptional Desire (4-1): He’s a luke warm favourite at the time of this writing, he had things go his way last time breaking from the rail as the 9/5 favourite but was caught by two rivals that were conceding 17 and 24 pounds to him, the thing that alarmed me was his gallop out or the lack of one, was grabbed pretty quickly soon after the wire by Purton.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *801 (winners: 2nd & 7th, second: 1st)
Race 4 :8: Garlic Yeah (17-1)

Race 093 (winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 7 :10: Mi Blanco (24-1)

Race 098 (winners: 1st, 2nd & 4th)
Race 3 :10: Glorious Partners (33-1)

Race 148 (winners: 5th & 6th, second: 3rd)
Race 2 :9: Sharpmind (8-1)

Race 186 (winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 3 :9: Back In Black (29-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :7: Fairy Twins (9-1)
Race 7 :1: Wah May Baby (14-1)
Race 8 :12: Happy Journey (30-1)
Race 9 :8: Lucky Girl (6-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :1: Breeders’ Star (22-1): Leaped at the break costing him at least a couple lengths to the field, settled at the rear of the field 7 lengths behind the two front runners who would eventually finish first and second. Responded well from the stick when asked by Callan, had to slightly adjust his path at the 70 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders at the wire, galloped out well.

Race 5 :1: Jolly Bountiful (9-2): He wasn’t slow out of the gate while breaking on the rail with Moreira on board but wasn’t all that quick afterwards, settled mid-pack in the fourth flight, became a little rank at the 650 metre mark when he was ready to run but was pinned in with nowhere to go. Started closing in on the leaders and looked the winner ready to split the runners in front of him but as soon as he stuck his nose in there he shied out of it forcing Moreira to take him around all the while the winner Our Folks was making his winning move.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :4: Ambitious Heart (6-1) Race 093
Race 8 :9: Super Form (3-1) Race 126


Key Plays:
Race 2 :4: Ambitious Heart (6-1)
Race 8 :9: Super Form (3-1)


Longshots:
Race 4 :6: Super Clan (10-1)
Race 7 :5: Bo Duke (24-1)

proximity
12-05-2017, 11:14 PM
F.Y.I.: Wednesday’s races will start a little earlier than normal with the Jockeys’ Challenge there will be 9 races instead of the normal 8, also will have an open thread next Friday night for the Hong Kong International Races, so join in.

i think i like pierre boudot to win so you can all throw him out. :)

kevb
12-06-2017, 05:54 AM
Still no betting available at Xpressbet. 12/6/17
:confused:

proximity
12-06-2017, 05:54 AM
today's guesses for sha tin:

race 1: :9: the champ :11:
race 2: :1: sun touch :11:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :12: happy friendship :3:
race 5: :4: bond elegance ($12.00 place)
race 6: :7: dollar reward ($32.50 place)
race 7: pass race
race 8: :11: five stars agent :4:
race 9: :3: limitless :7:
race 10: :7: calculation :5: ($24.50 place)

last time: another 0-8 day in the win market after calculation is gunned down on the wire by last to first longshot diamond dragon. bond elegance and dollar reward also place but it's way too little.

season::puke: w 22/114 (0.74) p 50/114 (0.76) q 5/150 (0.34) om 19/150 (0.68)

longines international jockey championship guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :2::6:
race 2: :3:
race 3: :8::7::3:
race 4: :9::4:
race 5: :4:
race 6: :7::8::9:
race 7: :12:
race 8: :6:
race 9: :8::1:

international champion: pierre boudot

woodbinepmi
12-09-2017, 03:25 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 6, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: You couldn’t have asked for better trips than what Moreira got in his first two races, winning on both Yourthewonforme (46) and Infinity Endeavour (66), and in the second Ambitious Heart (54) fought Whyte as much as me and my brother did the francophones on our street growing up. As good a ride as Boudot gave in the 8th on Bank On Red (77) he gave an equally bad ride on Bo Duke in the 7th, tried the backside move made popular by Whyte when he was king of the jockey colony, the only problem is he didn’t take the lead, ran to right off the front runners then grabbed him and when he needed to accelerate again there was nothing left in the tank. Marvel Hero (100) may have won the 9th but just refused to go thru a hole at the rail at the 250 mark, when he finally did made a huge run to the winner, picked up 2 points which will keep him in Class 2 for his next race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #8 Money Boy (69): Is now only 1 for 20 in his Hong Kong record for Size, but does seem to prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin. Was rubbed on immediately out of the gate and was in a great position waiting right behind the front runners heading into the turn, when he entered the stretch he carried himself out a little more than Moreira wanted and allowed General Iron (71) to get up under him and put Money Boy in a box having to wait for room, at the 180 mark Moreira shifted out and closed well only to lose by a short head to a 45-1 winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 #10 Peace Combination (51): Will pick up around 5 to 6 pounds in his next race after getting a perfect trip and winning a Class 4 race in a slower than average time.

Speed Figures:
1st (245): 96#
2nd (246): 98
3rd (247): 101
4th (248): 97
5th (249): 94
6th (250): 100
7th (251): 95
8th (252): -100
9th (253): -104


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
12-09-2017, 07:25 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 10, 2017 Twenty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees and sunny 0% chance of rain Wind: NNW 5mph.

Post time: 11.25pm ET, 8.25pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171210_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171210_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 080 (winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 3rd & 7th)
Race 7 :3: Contentment (26-1)

Race 135 (winners: 1st & 9th, second: 3rd, 4th & 5th)
Race 6 :14: Lucky Dollar (7-1)

Race 172 (winners: 2nd, 3rd, 13th & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 10 :9: Rise High (9-1)

Race 186 (winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 2 :7: Winston’s Lad (17-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :2: Victory Boys (9-1)
Race 1 :5: King Of Mongolia (19-1)
Race 3 :1: Dashing Fellow (28-1)
Race 6 :4: Blocker Dee (43-1)
Race 10 :8: Dr Listening (37-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :5: Simply Brilliant (5-2): In his first race in Hong Kong drew a tough Class 3 event while being bet down to the 9-2 second choice. Sat around four lengths off the front runner on the backside, looked like he was going to get up at the 200 metre mark but was just a little short after not racing since his last race at Ascot in June. Was just beaten by a neck to Super Fluke in his third straight win, he picked up 3 rating points off that effort and will be allowed to run again in Class 3, look for him at Sha Tin next time.

Race 5 :2: Lucky Bubbles (7-2): In one word ‘Disaster’ is how Purton responded after the run. Broke well enough into a good position off the leaders on the rail but when Chadwick decided to slow everything down he was forced to check up then became rank for the next 200 metres, later when trying to force his way into a hole had to be taken up again when Dashing Fellow came over onto him at the 300 mark, finished up under a hand ride on the rail while Mr Stunning was running away for his easy check.

Race 5 :10: D B Pin: Is a real game runner, gives an honest run every time even though he’s probably in a little out of his weight class. Was taken back out of the duel entering the turn but then was forced to alter his course after Peniaphobia slow everything up, then was stuck behind a wall entering the stretch had a hole but looked like the hole was moving a little quicker than he was, wasn’t helped with Not Listenin’tome keep drifting in and out in front of him. Closed well to the wire when Not Listenin’tome finally threw in the anchor and gave him a clear lane to scoot thru, hopefully he’ll find an easier spot next out in a Class 1 or a lower Graded race. (Well that didn’t happen, throwing him into the lion’s den again).

Past watch list runners:
Race 7 :11: Sichuan Dar (29-1) Race 153

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Simply Brilliant (5-2)
Race 5 :2: Lucky Bubbles (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Winston’s Lad (17-1)
Race 3 :9: Southern Legend (22-1)
Race 9 :6: Affluence Start (12-1)
Race 9 :9: Diamond King (13-1)

Will be running a live chat during the races tonight, so join in.

Hong Kong Turf
12-09-2017, 10:40 PM
Long post here, but see below for detailed Hong Kong Turf analysis of tonights HKIR:

Summary Selections:

Race 4: Longines Hong Kong Vase – 2400M (1 ½ Miles): #1 Highland Reel (Best Bet), #2 Talismanic, #12 Kiseki, #3 Tiberian

Race 5: Longines Hong Kong Sprint – 1200M (6 Furlongs): #2 Lucky Bubbles, #9 Blizzard, #1 Mr. Stunning, #11 Stormy Liberal

Race 7: Longines Hong Kong Mile – 1600M (1 Mile): #7 Seasons Bloom, #14 Roly Poly, #10 Beauty Generation, #2 Helene Paragon

Race 8: Longines Hong Kong Cup – 2000M (1 1/4 Miles): #4 Werther, #3 Poet’s Word, #2 Neorealism, #9 Time Warp



Detailed Analysis:

Race 4: Longines Hong Kong Vase – 2400M (1 ½ Miles)



#1 Highland Reel seemingly walks off the plane anywhere in the world ready to run. He won this race in 2015 over Flintshire, and arguably ran an even sharper race here last year when he was nipped in the final 50 yards by Satono Crown, 6 lengths clear of 3rd. Highland Reel disappointed somewhat when beaten on the square by Talismanic in the Breeders Cup Turf as the favorite, but he never looked comfortable early that day. The feeling is he can improve off that effort here, likely with a comfortable trip on the front end. If he shows up with one of his better efforts, his elite form is simply too good for this field, (including Talismanic). 2/1 looks like value – best bet of the HKIR.

#2 Talismanic needs no introduction, coming here off a score in the Breeders Cup Turf in a mild upset for Godolophin. The horse with the distinctive white face is tough to knock off that peak effort and an obvious true contender, but it’s worth considering that he was not quite a top class runner this year in Europe, with the BC representing his 1st and only Group 1 win. While he won convincingly, he received a great trip in that race. That said, he appears to be peaking at the right time for this, and may be the “now” horse. Main threat.

#12 Kiseki is a lightly raced Japanese 3 year old who may be getting better with each race. He enters here off a convincing win in the Japanese St Leger over 1 7/8 M on soft turf. He gets the acid test here, but may well be this good, and the 5 lb allowance from the older runners is not insignificant. One key cause for pause, however, is that he showed symptoms of ringworm upon arrival in Hong Kong. Experts seem to feel it should have little to no impact on his performance, but anything to impact the preparation and routine coming into a race of this caliber demands a downgrade.

#3 Tiberian is being forgotten in the early betting, but has done little wrong this year in a campaign with 4 wins, including 2 wins over Talismanic. Throw out the Melbourne Cup (2 miles vs. 22 rivals), and the form comes into sharper focus. He’s another strong stayer who looks to be peaking, and can help create some value the exotics at a big price.





Race 5: Longines Hong Kong Sprint – 1200M (6 Furlongs)



#2 Lucky Bubbles was favored over Mr. Stunning in both of their prep races coming into this. The race 2-back was a fine 2nd off of a layoff, but last time out, he endured a nightmarish trip with an indecisive ride. That race is a clear toss out – look beyond it and you have a G1 winner in Hong Kong who is always right on the line. Big player here.

#9 Blizzard lacks the resume of some of the top players in here, but has run races that look good enough based on speed figures. He appears to be in top form, finishing a solid 2nd in one of the better races of the season 2-back, in a race where he may not have been fully cranked. He then followed that up with a close 5th place finish in Japan. His recent trial showed that he remains on his toes, and is a legit player as a huge overlay in this race.

#1 Mr. Stunning – Most of the Hong Kong runners here are exiting the same sequence of prep races, both won well by Mr. Stunning. He has a great draw and is very logical and a huge threat here. Hong Kong’s highest rated horse would be no surprise, but his room for error is limited, and the current odds of 3-5 are just too short.

#11 Stormy Liberal, whose connections have been deeply impacted by the tragedy in San Luis Rey will be a sentimental rooting interest. While he was a big longshot, he ran a huge race to capture the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint over the likes of Marsha and Lady Aurelia. Americans have never really fired here, and it’s fair to question whether he can run another peak effort halfway around the world off 5 weeks rest. That said, he’s at the top of his game and will go to the post at odds of greater than 40-1.





Race 7: Longines Hong Kong Mile – 1600M (1 Mile)



In a race lacking a true international standout, #7 Seasons Bloom is in the best form of the Hong Kong contingent. He kicked off the season in raging fashion with a big win in a tough Class 1 over 1200, before a 2nd place finish over 1400M, then a solid win over several of his challengers over the mile in his final prep. Top rider Joao Moreira sticks, and he looks like the one they’ll need to hold off in the lane.

Don’t sleep on #14, Roly Poly, a 3YO filly. Currently 40/1 in the betting, Roly Poly was a popular “wise guy” play in the Breeder’s Cup Mile. She disappointed that day, uncharacteristically far back in the field, but this is a softer spot, and this miss is a multiple Group 1 winner this year for Aiden O’Brien. She received a very wide draw in the 14 gate, and that has bettors essentially writing off her chances entirely. Given the set-up, expect Jamie Heffernan to try to use her speed to clear the field. Keep in mind that it is a long run down the backstretch going a mile at Sha Tin, and ground loss is not a guarantee. With a clean getaway, she’ll take some catching, and could blow up the exotics.

#10 Beauty Generation is another local in sharp current form. With a thinner local resume than some of this rivals in here, he has made the most of his strong tactical speed and grit in the stretch to take 2 of the 3 keep preps coming into this. He seems to have blossomed on the cutback to the middle distances this season and isn’t going down without a fight. A win would be tremendous for local rider Derek Leung who has been a roll this season.

#2 Helene Paragon was a narrow 2nd in this last season, and followed up the effort with a pair of G1 wins over the winter, before the form began to tail off in the spring. The last race, however, may signal that he is back on track, as he was ½ length behind Seasons Bloom under a 5 lb penalty. He is the “1st string” runner for the John Moore barn, and his best would make him tough.





Race 8: Longines Hong Kong Cup – 2000M (1 1/4 Miles)



#4 Werther has repeatedly run huge in Hong Kong’s international events, and has stamped himself as the top classic distance horse on the grounds. The prep path coming up to this has gone off without a hitch, and things are coming together for him to win his biggest prize yet for John Moore. He won his final prep in fast time over a stubborn Time Warp like a horse who will be better for the effort; afterwards, John Moore commented that Werther was about 80% cranked. Looking for him to fire a top effort here and mow them down late.

#3 Poet’s Word put together a solid campaign in Europe this year for Sir Michael Stoute, and comes into this on a high note off a pair of rock solid 2nd place finishes in the Irish and UK Champions Stakes over the same distance. The wide gate is a bit of a concern, but he has never been better, and is slipping under the radar in the early betting.

#2 Neorealism is a tricky horse to evaluate. He won the QE2 here in the spring, when Joao Moreira made a perfectly timed early move into a bizarrely slow pace. The back class is there as well, as he has multiple top class wins in Japan. Current form is a question mark, however, as he enters off a dull effort in the Tenno Sho in Japan – was that just a prep, or a signal of declining form? Noriyuki Hori has won a ridiculous 5 of his last 7 races entered in Hong Kong, and Joao Moreira again takes the mount. Can’t ignore.

#9 Time Warp has been on an absolute tear since last June, as he progressed from Class 2 to giving Werther all he could handle in the run up to the HKIR. Though he hasn’t won yet this season, he has proven he belongs here with a 2 heart breaking second place finishes. He brings a high level of tactical speed, and encouragingly showed a rating dimension last out when a pace setter put him in a difficult tactical spot. That last effort also dispelled any doubts that he wants this distance. Could see him potentially carrying his speed all the way with a perfect trip, but has a big place chance at the minimum.

Nitro
12-10-2017, 12:09 AM
Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Hi there Michael! I thought I might just join you for this one card.

This is one of the best race cards of this meet, and looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 10 big races on the Turf. 4 Grade 1’s, 1 Class1, 2 Class2, and 3 Class3.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:25 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ll won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections are ALL be based on a static tote analysis. The Live selections will all be based the Live tote analysis.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. The Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1800M C3 (9F)T…..1-3-10 W/ 2-6-8 ….….11:25 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#2 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…... 5-3-2 W/ 10-11-6 ……11:55 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#3 - 1400M C1 (7F)T….....6-2-1 W/ 3-9 ..............12:30 AM EST

R#4 - 2400M G1 (12F)T…...1-2-12 W/ 9-6-8 ….....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#5 - 1200M G1 (6F)T.……1-2-4 W/ 5-9-3 …......1:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#6 - 1200M C2 (6F)T….....5-3-10 W/ 1-11-7 ……2:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#7 – 1600M G1 (8F)T…....2-1-7 W/ 3-13-10 .........2:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 2000M G1 (10F)T……4-2-1 W/ 3-5-8 ………3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.…….2-3-6 W/ 5-1-11 ….…...4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T.......4-2-6 W/ 12-9-13 ……...4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

woodbinepmi
12-11-2017, 04:35 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 10, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day:
It looked like there may have been a bias to front runners but most of the races that were won on the lead were done by favourites who had figured or runners that were allowed to set a slow pace. The variant was pretty easy to set except for the Highland Reel’s win going a marathon distance which wasn’t used in it and in the final where the pace was set at a pedestrian time. Son of Frankel Simply Brilliant (78) looked to have hung a little mid-stretch but closed well after Rawiller got his attention back on the game, just missed out by a head to Key Witness (85) who will be heading back to Class 2 after that effort. Southern Legend (106) took full advantage of the trip Nothingilikemore (112) getting in trouble early then forced wide entering the stretch. Mr Stunning (130) ran a new lifetime figure of 114 topping his 113 he ran last meet in the Sprint Cup GII, thought he might have caught with D B Pin (127) in the stretch, that effort by D B may have taken a little too much out of him though, will probably play against him next time out (depending on the odds of course). Lockheed (88) gave a decent run after being pounded at the windows going off at 8-5, he’s a real nice looking grey colt. A very nice rides by Leung on Beauty Generation (126) and Purton on Time Warp (126) getting them to the front and putting their runners to sleep while running and having plenty left in the tank when the alarm bells went off. As good a ride as Purton gave in the HK Cup it was nothing compared to what he did on Spicy Sure (87) in the 9th, sat right off Bowman on Calculation (79) when they straightened up in the stretch he pulled right up to Bowman without him noticing and put him right into the rear of a tiring Affluent Star (72) stopping his momentum and allowing Purton a free run to the wire without any competition. Give Rattan (85) an excuse in this run, was forced to chase a loose Time To Celebrate (89) that was allowed to set a very slow pace, Rattan looked to have hesitated when he needed to get through a hole, but closed well when room became available.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 #4 Dundonnell (109): In his first race since running in Dubai caught a real nice field for his return. Broke extremely slow out of the gate conceding at least two lengths to the field, was a little rank on the backside, looked full of run entering the stretch while being blocked found room at the 280 mark and pretty much ran evenly afterwards, nice effort for being off since last March in the desert. Hopefully Lor will keep him in this class and not raise him back in the Graded ranks again, has spent most of his career in over his head.

Race 6 #11 Jing Jing Win (84): Was very unlucky at the draw getting the outside post 14 in the short run to the turn going 1200, broke well enough and was taken back by Purton to try and save as much ground as possible. Became rank or had to check up heading into the turn (kind of hard to tell which on the replays), then began climbing in the turn going 2 wide moved to the 6 path in the straighten up finished well only to get beat by a length to Wah May Friend (104) who had just dropped down from a Class 1 race where he had lost by a nose to Western Express (122).

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Key Witness (85): Will be heading back up to Class 2 after winning this Class 3 in a slow time for even that class, he didn’t gallop out all that well after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (254): 101
2nd (255): 98
3rd (256): 107
4th (257): 116#
5th (258): 114
6th (259): 102
7th (260): +110
8th (261): -107
9th (262): 100
10th (263): -101#

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
12-12-2017, 09:16 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 13, 2017 Thirtieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 64 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15 am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171213_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171213_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :10: Midnite Promise (2-1): Was a very disappointing favourite in his last running 8th beaten 3 lengths, he was never asked and after watching the race again I couldn’t find an excuse for the bad run. After winning only once in 33 tries I will hope he runs another race like he did in his last at 2-1 and try and beat him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *792 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 2 :4: Gracious Ryder (7-1)

Race 022 (Winners: 6th, 7th & 10th)
Race 3 :8: Striking Star (32-1)

Race 173 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :10: Le Pegase (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 6 :10: Right Call (16-1)
Race 8 :11: Energetic Class (22-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :6: Diamond Master: Was lucky to draw the rail after drawing outside post lately, broke well and sat right off the leaders and was more full of run than what he’s been normally showing lately. Was making a move to the front at the 250 mark when Berry on Storm Signal came out and forced Lai to severely take up on him, he put the stick away and just let him gallop out afterwards. (My luck he draws the outside post again.)

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 2 :7: Clear Choice (16-1)
Race 8 :1: California Fortune (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :10: Le Pegase (9-1)
Race 5 :12: Five Stars Agent (11-1)
Race 6 :7: Ho Ho Feel (16-1)
Race 7 :1: Dr Win Win (12-1)

woodbinepmi
12-14-2017, 07:08 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *761, 128 and 216

Notes for the day:
In the 3rd Golden Glory (46) ran a figure strong enough to be able to compete and even win if he gets lucky and draws a weaker Class 4 field, especially if Poon stays on with the 7 pound weight which will put him in around 113. In that race Trendiful (32) was bounced around like a tennis ball for the first 100 metres of the race, not a bad effort finishing third against a runaway winner after all that, also Haymaker (37) spotted the field about four lengths at the break and then had to run 3 wide finished pretty evenly in the stretch, would put him on the watch list but he’s a little too inconsistent runner. In the 4th Speedy Wally (55) looked uninterested in running, was extremely rank for the first half of the race, so you probably can put a line thru it. Couldn’t find an excuse for Polymer Luck (52) in the firth, he usually gives an honest effort but not today, he is looking more and more like a runner who has no intentions of winning unless it is given to him. Moreira’s ride in the 6th Pretty Bauhinia (67) was moving into contention when he had to be slightly steadied at the 200 mark when Land Grant (73) started to tire and came into his path, Moreira had to move to the outside of the eventual winner but was unable to catch him at the wire under a hand ride. An excellent ride by the Brazilian in the 7th getting Mister Monte (72) to the lead and coast around for a big effort, should have no problem repeating that effort next time in Class 3 unless he draws another speed-baller like California Fortune (77) drew with Burst Away (64) in the 8th. Whyte put Chadwick in a speed duel and California Fortune wants no part of that, Hair Trigger (66) was bumped and squeezed back at the break and then was 3 wide afterwards so give him a closer look next race. On a personal note, tough beat for our only watch horse of the day Diamond Master (68) losing by a half a length in the last at 49-1.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #7 Ho Ho Feel (68): Won two races back going 1800 metres at the Valley and then came back with a decent effort after having a little trouble at the break at Sha Tin going two turns which is probably a little too far for him to go. Drew the 11 post with the short run to the first turn, took a nice leap out of the gate at the start conceding at least a length to the field, it really didn’t compromise his running position though what with him being a dead closer. Was unable to find the rail in the first turn so raced 3 wide because Leung on Chater Legend wasn’t allowed to move over himself, made a slight move going up the hill on the backside heading into the turn for home, had a slight change of course at the 250 metre mark, lacked the ample kick home to catch the easy winner.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 6 #12 Winning Faith (67): Won a slow Class 3 race after his main rival ran into traffic problems, picked up 6 points off the effort which will put him at 121 pounds next out.


Speed Figures:
1st (264): -92
2nd (265): 95
3rd (266): 96
4th (267): -95 ?
5th (268): 97
6th (269): -97
7th (270): 104
8th (271): 97

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
12-16-2017, 05:20 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 17, 2017 Thirty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Overcast 0% of rain Wind: N 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171217_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171217_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :3: Proud Sky (9-5): Playing against a trainer that is 4 for 146 for the season so far on a horse that is short only for the sole purpose that Moreira picked up the mount.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 158 (Winners: 5th & 10th, second: 1st & 3rd)
Race 9 :12: Endearing (13-1)

Race 186 (Winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 5 :7: Young Legend (9-2)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 9 :10: Relentless Me (18-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :6: Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 8 :6: Green Energy (28-1)
Race 10 :2: Pingwu Spark (7-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 :10: Cheer Win (10-1)
Race 6 :13: Royale Elegance (9-1)
Race 8 :5: Ping Hai Star (3-5)
Race 8 :13: Such A Happiness (22-1)
Race 9 :11: Pick Number One (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 7 :1: Agree (5-1)
Race 10 :2: Pingwu Spark (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :1: Amritsaria (11-1)
Race 5 :10: Cheer Win (10-1)
Race 9 :12: Endearing (13-1)
Race 10 :5: Big Bang Bong (19-1)
Race 10 :10: World Record (26-1)

proximity
12-17-2017, 12:00 AM
tonight's guesses:

race 2: :11:spicey double :3:
race 4: :5:lucky time :7:
race 7: :6:dashing dart
race 9: :2:jade theatre :11::3:

woodbinepmi
12-18-2017, 10:55 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 17, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Turf: Off the pace… Dirt: Speed
Key Races: 184 & 185

Notes for the day:
Impressive win by the first time starter Lean Perfection (59) after breaking a little slow then fighting his way thru the field in the straight, should improve when he gets to go longer. In that same race look for Gouten Of Garo (51) to get an equipment change to blinkers or a ring bit, was turning his head for half the race. Audacity (39) ran a very game race running near the front fighting the bias in a fast early pace and still was only defeated by a half-length to Proud Sky (43). First time starter in the fourth for freedman Aashiqui (52) was unfortunate to draw the rail in his debut and ran very rank early and then green in the lane, was not asked at all, watch how the tote board treats him the next time out, will have to run in another barrier trial before racing again by orders of the stewards. Massive win by Easy Go Easy Win (81) in picking up 9 rating points off that effort, outrun a nice horse in Amazing Star (62) with ease, watch for the first one to run and it may give us an idea on how strong the other is. Good For You (58) was looking like he was about to peak into form off his out in Race 220 but was rank and then blocked in the stretch, but still finished well in a quick Class 4 race. In the other Class 4 race Indigenous Star (49) was doomed at the draw getting the 13 hole, was rank while going wide in the turn a very excusable reason in where he finished, look closely at him if Moreira stays on and he gets a better gate. Hopefully Shum keeps Pick Number One (69) on the dirt, may be the fastest dirt horse on the backside right now on the AWT. If you didn’t see the last go back and watch it, Pingwu Spark (103) looked all but beat stuck in on the rail half-way thru the stretch but forced his way out and exploded to the wire while knocking Eastern Express (96) sideways causing Leung two racing days, going to see how he runs against Class 1 runners next time before I play him again but he should be able to compete eventually.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #10 Noble Steed (60): In his second career race after he had closed to run a good third behind Sparkling Dragon (66) in his debut. In here was bounced around at the start nothing to compromise his race but still enough that it will sometimes affect young runners to take their minds off the issue, but it didn’t seem to bother him. Settled mid-pack chasing a front runner who eventually was eased in the lane, was in tight three wide entering the stretch and quickly accelerated when asked by Prebble and drew away from a nice Class 4 field under a hand ride with his ears picked straight up. Picked up 8 points which will allow him to run again in Class 4 and the extra 8 pounds shouldn’t be an issue.

Race 10 #4 Good Standing (90): In his first try in Hong Kong after winning three races in his homeland of Australia, picked up the services of Mr. Purton but was unlucky in drawing the big (literally 1330 lbs.) Pingwu Spark (103). Was bounced a couple times down the backside by the winner, Purton was able to have the chalk boxed in entering the stretch, looked like he was a winner when Pingwu Spark ran into his difficulties, was able to get a length and a half lead at the 150 metre mark but ran out of gas late after being away from the races since last May, should improve off that effort.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

Speed Figures:
1st (272): 93 ?
2nd (273): +96
3rd (274): 89
4th (275): 97
5th (276): 101
6th (277): 98
7th (278): -93
8th (279): +99
9th (280): 103
10th (281): 103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
12-19-2017, 04:21 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 20, 2017 Thirty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 51 degrees Clear skies 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171220_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171220_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 :4: Winfull Patrol (3-1): Is only 2 for 40 lifetime, and would rather run second and third. Trainer is at 6% with the rider hovering around 2%, has not run up to par for this race in his last 4 races while not racing on his proper lead.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 128 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 4th)
Race 3 :10: Charity Kingdom (20-1)

Race 172 (Winners: 2nd, 3rd, 13th & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 8 :11: Super Lifeline (24-1)

Race 184 (Winners: 1st & 12th, second: 4th)
Race 5 :3: Right Honourable (16-1)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 5 :4: Celestial Nova (23-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4: Wah May Baby (15-1)
Race 5 :8: Sparkling Sword (17-1)
Race 7 :1: Victory Marvel (12-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 6 :8: Ho Ho Feel (28-1): Won two races back going 1800 metres at the Valley and then came back with a decent effort after having a little trouble at the break at Sha Tin going two turns which is probably a little too far for him to go. Drew the 11 post with the short run to the first turn, took a nice leap out of the gate at the start conceding at least a length to the field, it really didn’t compromise his running position though what with him being a dead closer. Was unable to find the rail in the first turn so raced 3 wide because Leung on Chater Legend wasn’t allowed to move over himself, made a slight move going up the hill on the backside heading into the turn for home, had a slight change of course at the 250 metre mark, lacked the ample kick home to catch the easy winner.


Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :12: Megatron (6-1)
Race 8 :3: House Of Fun (5-2)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :10: Ever Laugh (2-1)
Race 6 :8: Ho Ho Feel (28-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :5: Numero Uno (25-1)
Race 6 :10: Hay Run (11-1)
Race 8 :7: Mr Genuine (9-1)

woodbinepmi
12-22-2017, 05:57 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 23, 2017 Thirty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171223_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171223_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :2: Sparkling Dragon (6-5): Was able to get an easy lead and hold off a couple nice horses in Gallant Return (60) and Win Beauty Win (62) but Sam had to really get into him all the way down the lane and with him not getting to his proper lead, that may get up and bite him against Class 3 runners next out.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *778 (Winners: 5th & 8th, second: 1st & 9th)
Race 7 :9: Super Lucky (56-1)

Race 184 (Winners: 1st, 12th & 13th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :7: Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 5 :5: Beautiful Day (8-1)

Race 185 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, second: 5th & 8th)
Race 2 :2: Eighty Eighty (1-2)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 5 :3: Marqula (44-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 6 :5: Hot King Prawn (2-5)
Race 7 :7: Happy Surveys (19-1)
Race 9 :14: Victory Boys (11-1)
Race 10 :12: Happy Journey (70-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :2: Eighty Eighty (1-2): One of So’s heavily bet first time starters who drew the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at the 1200 metres distance. Was bumped pretty hard at the start by the outside runner Sincere Dragon, then rushed up near the front runners without being asked by Moreira, raced 4 wide in the turn under a strangle hold, all the while the eventual winner was able to get an uncontested early lead and setting a very slow middle section. Ran even thru the lane while not being able to make up the ground on the winner, Moreira wrapped up on him at the 150 metres mark.

Race 7 :1: Turf Sprint (5-1): He doesn’t have the best record on the backside but does look to be rounding into top form and after running second to Hot King Prawn (89) may be sitting on it now. Beat the rest of the field with ease being 2 ¾ lengths in front of the third place runner. Figure came back a 102 which is almost a full length fast than par for Class 3 races.

Race 9 :4: Exultant (1-1): In his second race at HKJC after he ran a game 5th only losing by 2 lengths after encountering trouble to Western Express (112) in his debut, caught another bear in Fifty Fifty (98). Was caught a little flat footed at the start sending him sideways into Romantic Touch, settled around seven lengths in the back by himself with a quick pace to run at, moved to the 6 path entering the stretch really took off at the 300 metre mark switched back to his wrong lead at the 170 mark but continued to close on the big favourite only to lose by a half-length, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runner:
Race 3 :6: Gallant Return (5-1) Race 193

Key Play:
Race 5 :1: Better Choice (2-1)
Race 10 :3: Calculation (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 6 :8: Big Time Baby (20-1)
Race 10 :9: Ultimate Glory (9-1)

woodbinepmi
12-24-2017, 10:07 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 209

Notes for the day:
Will avoid all the runners from a poor Class 5 field in the first, Wonderful Tiger’s (50) race can be totally disregarded after he broke 5 lengths slow to the field in the second. Unlike the first the Class 4 going long in the third was extremely tough for that class with a final time to prove it. Cheerfuljet (67) picked up 11 points off his effort and might be able to compete soon against Class 3 runners as long as it’s at the Valley. Right Honourable (64) who came out of the key race 184 got a perfect trip and got up in time to pay key race players $69.90 to win. Will stay away from Rule Thee (67) next time out, was able to get up after travelling wide and just pass the leaders at the wire in a slow final time for 11 furlongs while getting a 15 pounds allowance to the second place finisher Rickfield (81). The final looked like a Sha Tin Class 2 race, a lot of nice runners in there, the chalk Fantastic Eight (84) was outrun on the backside and just didn’t have the final kick he needed.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #5 Born In China (103): Went off at 6-1 in the tough Class 2 final while breaking from the 9 gate with the short run to the mini turn at 6 furlongs. Was bumped pretty good by House Of Fun soon after the start and forced back with Wah May Friend trying to get over with the short run to the turn which put this one in the rear of the field, not where he wants to be. Became rank at the 450 metre mark looking for room with full of run, moved to the seven path in the stretch but had to wait for room, then started a nice run to the wire that was around 200 metres long but was unable to catch the winner Archippus (107) who had a much easier trip. Hopefully Lui will keep him running at the downtown track.

Horses to avoid next out:
Anything out of the 1st Race (282)

Speed Figures:
1st (282): 85
2nd (283): 98
3rd (284): +99
4th (285): 99
5th (286): 97
6th (287): 97
7th (288): 98
8th (289): 108

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
12-26-2017, 12:15 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 23, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: 229

Notes for the day:
Eighty Eighty (55) in the second was unlucky to lose out on a bob to Bossiee (55), it was not the best ride given by Nash, look for Moreira back up next time after his suspension is over. The final time in the Griffin Trophy came back a little slow most likely due to the slow early pace. Win Beauty Win (71) will have to take the mandatory rise to Class 3 next time, but should be able to handle the climb. Better Choice (61) picked up a rating point in the slow Class 4 in the 5th race getting beat by the first time starter out of the Lee barn, now has to move up to Class 3 where it will be much tougher, will most likely avoid most out of that race in the future. Hot King Prawn (98) was very fortunate in only picking up 9 points which will keep him away from Class 1 runners which most of the time is filled with good stakes runners, Size is going to have to try him around the turn or he’s going to run out of races to run him in. Will give Water Diviner (83) a closer look next time after a nice run, he had been away since last March where he had been on the Vet’s list with cuts on his hind legs after acting up in the paddock in which he was scratched in November. Big number by Victory Machine (68) after getting a perfect trip and only carrying 108 pounds with the bug-boy Poon aboard. Consort (84) looks to have finally found his groove, made a huge run late after getting into trouble early then became rank running just below par for Class 2 races, as long as he doesn’t draw Exultant (102) again. The final race come back very competitive, 6 runners ran faster than par, which is very rare on the turf.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #2 Apollo’s Choice (80): Has seem to have really found his form so far this year, had finished a game 3rd only losing by ¾ length to Happy Agility (83) while breaking from the 13 hole in his last. Had a much better draw for this race getting the 4 post, took a slight leap out of the gate then settled mid-pack on the rail, was looking for room to get thru on the rail early in the stretch but had change those plans when Experto Crede (63) beat him to the hole. Then was boxed in when the eventual winner California Joy (81) beat him to the other opening, was hand ridden to the wire only to lose out by ¾ length in a fast Class 3 race.

Race 10 #13 Sacred Ibis (64): In his first try against Class 3 runners after 2 straight wins in the lower division. Drew an outside post (11) and was a length slow out of the gate, raced around 7 lengths off the pace down the backside, moved to the outside in the stretch and took off when asked to run by Teetan just to miss by a head in a fast race for the class, galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #8 Sum Win Dragon (57): Won a slow Class 4 going long after getting a perfect trip in beating a mediocre field.

Anything out of Race 5 (294)

Speed Figures:
1st (290): 94
2nd (291): 96 ?
3rd (292): -98
4th (293): +90
5th (294): 92
6th (295): -105
7th (296): 104
8th (297): 102
9th (298): 106
10th (299): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
12-26-2017, 06:47 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 27, 2017 Thirty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees partly cloudy 10 % of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171227_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171227_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 :2: California Whip (3-1): Is in a tough Class 2 for Happy Valley, with a first time starter for John Size from Ireland with Moreira on board. His only win in Hong Kong was on the dirt and has a tendency to not get by leaders in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 086 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, second: 7th)
Race 4 :9: Buddy Bundy (22-1)

Race 147 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 1 :5: Regency Honey (14-1)

Race 173 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :4: My Gift (7-1)

Race 209 (Winners: 1st & 7th, second: 6th)
Race 2 :5: Treasure And Gold (7-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Agiaal (13-1)
Race 5 :3: Bold Elegance (5-2)
Race 7 :9: Right Call (11-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 6 :8: Money Boy (2-1): Is now only 1 for 20 in his Hong Kong record for Size, but does seem to prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin. Was rubbed on immediately out of the gate and was in a great position waiting right behind the front runners heading into the turn, when he entered the stretch he carried himself out a little more than Moreira wanted and allowed General Iron (71) to get up under him and put Money Boy in a box having to wait for room, at the 180 mark Moreira shifted out and closed well only to lose by a short head to a 45-1 winner.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 5 :8: Planet Star (9-2)
Race 6 :8: Money Boy (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 :10: Money Winner (16-1)
Race 5 :4: Beauty Connection (10-1)
Race 6 :5: Charity Glory (9-1)

woodbinepmi
12-30-2017, 12:32 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 27, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 174, 210 & 224

Notes for the day:
When the races were being run I started thinking that there was a rail bias in action but after inspecting the races more closely after the battle was over, I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t one. It came be very detrimental to the bankroll if you make a judgement in the heat of a race card of a bias but in reality you may be just hoping for one to be there. In the first Audacity (40) ran into some serious trouble deep in the stretch, almost enough to be put on the watch list, but I try not to put Class 5 runners on it due to their inconsistent race results. He only picked up 1 point which will keep him at the bottom level for his next try. Race 2 was just SLOW, nothing more to say about it. The chalk in the 3rd Destin (47) was beaten by a much better trip and a significant weight allowance, willing to overlook this race and take a closer look next time. Speedy king (58) in the fourth went off as the 2-1 favourite after a short break was a length slow out of the gate and forced wide in the turn while chasing the easy winner Mr Right (67) which most times spells doom going 5 furlongs. Lunar Zephyr (49) in that same race was a quick pull-up after in the gallop out. Energetic Class (62) picked up two points which will put him up into Class 3 after being outrun by the longshot Born Dragon (52) who had a 13 pound advantage. Circuit King (67) has now ran in two straight fast races for their classes, will probably pick up 4 pounds unless Cruz takes Teetan off for a bug, but looks to have really found his form now. Imperial Gallant (80) looked to have plenty in the tank crossing the line in a quick Class 3 race, a VERY impressive turn of foot at the top of the lane and ran away from the rest in just a matter of few strides, should repeat next time against the same. Will tread lightly with Singapore Sling (93) next time, ran a final number that is par for the class but Berry had to beat on him for the last 150 metres just to get up.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #10 Generous Heart (65): Was unlucky to draw the 12 hole in the route in his return to the turf after his try on the dirt at Sha Tin, threw his head at the start sending him to the rear soon afterwards. Was asked entering the final turn at the same time the eventual winner was starting his run going wide Moreira on board, but wasn’t allowed to extend himself forward due to having to wait for Ishvara in front of him, was totally boxed in on the rail while Moreira was running away from the field, Purton never asked him to run in the stretch.

Race 8 #5 Insayshable (89): Showed a very nice run in his debut with Moreira on for the John Size barn, he looks to want to go further than 1650 so look for him to pop up at Sha Tin going 1800 or even 2000. Was a little rank early on and was just outrun by Singapore Sling but quickly galloped past him after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Everything out of Race 2 (301)

Race 3 #9 Don’t Miss (52): Got a perfect trip and beat the favourite who ran into serious trouble while getting the big weight allowance.

Speed Figures:
1st (300): +91
2nd (301): -88#
3rd (302): -95
4th (303): 95
5th (304): 95
6th (305): 103
7th (306): 102
8th (307): -104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

woodbinepmi
12-31-2017, 04:58 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 1, 2018 Thirty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 66 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 11.30pm ET, 8.30pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180101_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180101_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :11: Godspeed (7-2): Is the luke warm chalk early in the betting ran a very disappointing 9th as the favourite without visual reasoning why on the poor effort. Not all that keen on a trainer at 5 for 143 would be able to figure it out.

Race :10: 10 Beat The Clock (9-5): He will most likely end up being a real nice runner but will try and beat him in his first try against graded horses, and there are some in here, with Helene Paragon, Beauty Only, peniaphobia and Lucky Year. Asking a lot out of him at that price.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *666 (Winners: 5th, 7th & 9th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :4: Dazzle Winner (74-1)

Race 210 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 10th)
Race 2 :6: Le Panache (13-1)

Race 224 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 6th)
Race 8 :2: Healthy Joyful (13-1)
Race 11 :9: Kingsfield (24-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 :8: Mambo Rock (23-1)
Race 10 :7: Dashing Fellow (20-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :3: Super Missile (4-5): Was bet down as a huge favourite after his barrier trial when he ran with Mr. Stunning (130) and Beat The Clock (99), he stumbled out of the gate and was caught up in the middle of the pack, followed the eventual winner thru the heard showing nice composer for a first time starter, was asked only slightly by Purton near the wire, look for him to go a little further in his next race.

Race 10 :9: Dundonnell (13-1): In his first race since running in Dubai caught a real nice field for his return. Broke extremely slow out of the gate conceding at least two lengths to the field, was a little rank on the backside, looked full of run entering the stretch while being blocked found room at the 280 mark and pretty much ran evenly afterwards, nice effort for being off since last March in the desert. Hopefully Lor will keep him in this class and not raise him back in the Graded ranks again, has spent most of his career in over his head.

Race 11 :8: Jing Jing Win (9-1): Was very unlucky at the draw getting the outside post 14 in the short run to the turn going 1200, broke well enough and was taken back by Purton to try and save as much ground as possible. Became rank or had to check up heading into the turn (kind of hard to tell which on the replays), then began climbing in the turn going 2 wide moved to the 6 path in the straighten up finished well only to get beat by a length to Wah May Friend (104) who had just dropped down from a Class 1 race where he had lost by a nose to Western Express (122).

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :9: Brilliant Monkees (2-1)
Race 6 :1: Jolly Bountiful (4-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Winning Controller (4-1)
Race 6 :3: Supper Missile (4-5)
Race 9 :1: Circuit Hassler (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 :14: Golden Glory (10-1)
Race 6 :5: Royal Chocolate (13-1)
Race 8 :2: Healthy Joyful (13-1)
Race 8 :8: Go Beauty Go (12-1)

woodbinepmi
01-03-2018, 02:34 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 1, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 199

Notes for the day:
First two races were very weak Class 5 races and the final times proved it. In the second Moreira’s mount Brilliant Monkeys (26) was a quick pull up in the gallop out, Winning Controller (38) showed no heart in his effort, one of these days I will learn to quit making prime plays on Class 5 runners. The winner in the third Wushu Champion (60) was all out to catch the tiring leader Brilliant Dream (53) at the wire and as soon as he hit the line he was done, was passed by at half the field in the gallop out, big avoid next time. Big move in the stretch after going wide in the turn by Magic Success (52) in the fourth, Boudot pretty much wrapped up on him for the last 60 metres, look for him to go a little longer next time. Desmios (58) was a quick pull up in the fifth as was Speedy Wally (53) in the 5th. Super Missile (60) encountered enough trouble while being blocked in the stretch for most inexperienced runners to throw in the towel but he closed well when the room finally became available, his final time wasn’t all that quick which may be just a result of the trip but did look tired after the line, will need a weak field next time for me to play him again. Big number by Infinity Endeavour (73) in the 7th with him picking up 7 points which will most likely put him in at 126 pounds next race which shouldn’t be a problem, as with Infinity in the seventh Conte (78) picked up 9 points. He won that for fun, will take a very Healthy Joyful (80) next time out ran a very nice race while never really challenging Conte but handled the rest of the field pretty easily running a figure above par for the class. In the Chinese Challenge Cup both Fifty Fifty (111) and Beat The Clock (110) ran very impressive races while getting the weight allowance, of the old guards in that race only Helene Paragon (126) showed any kind of moxie against the youngsters. On a personal note thank goodness for Kingsfield (87) in the last for saving my day, coming out of the key race 224 held on paying $47 to win, it was a good day for key race horses with a win, a second and a third out of four runners on the day.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 7 #7 Affluence Start (72): In only his third start where he ran nicely in his maiden race and then threw in a clunker going 7 furlongs at Sha Tin. Broke well from the 2 gate and settled mid-pack while chasing a quick early pace, moved out to the 7 path in the stretch but was unable to catch the easy winner Infinity Endeavor (73) but he did run even with him the length of the entire stretch, galloped out well past the rest of the field after the race and should have plenty in the tank after that effort.

Race 11 #4 Lockheed (88): In only his second race in Hong Kong where he was bet down as the chalk in both tries, and was able to retain the services of Moreira again. Was bumped slightly leaving the gate, nothing all that significant though, settled about three lengths off a slow pace while looking uncomfortable in his stride down the backside. Moved closer to the leaders entering the stretch while racing on the rail, had to wait for room early in the stretch then when it did become available a tiring front runner Eastern Express (94) drifted out at the 150 metre mark forcing Moreira to take up on him while at the same time the eventual winner Kingfield (87) was able to advantage of the situation and get away from Lockheed, Moreira wrapped up on him afterwards.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #3 Wushu Champion (60): Was all out to catch a tired leader at the wire and didn’t gallop out all that well, races probably took too much out of him in his first races since last July, look for a bounce next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (308): 88
2nd (309): 87
3rd (310): 94
4th (311): 98
5th (312): +97
6th (313): 91
7th (314): +103#
8th (315): 106
9th (316): 99
10th (317): 111
11th (318): -101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
01-06-2018, 01:49 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 7, 2018 Thirty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Light rain Wind: E 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180107_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180107_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 6 :13: Midnite Promise (7-2): Is 1 for 34 lifetime in Hong Kong, 1 for 21 in Class 4 races and draws the 10 hole. Does have the services of Moreira for Lor who are hitting at 50% together, and they will play him because of the Brazilian on board but I will try and beat him at that price.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 093 (Winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 1 :7: Wish Come True (45-1)

Race 229 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :4: Sempiternal (7-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 :13: Happy Journey (34-1)
Race 10 :1: Solar Hei Hei (9-1)

High percentage Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 5 :7: Compassion Star (5-2)
Race 6 :13: Midnite Promise (7-2)
Race 9 :2: Simply Brilliant (2-1)

Horses that have an appreciation for Sha Tin:
Race 7 :5: House Of Fun (7-5)
Race 10 :4: Tine To Celebrate (7-2)

Distance specialists:
Race 4 :4: Morethanlucky (1-1)
Race 4 :7: Razor Quest (13-1)
Race 7 :4: Premiere (2-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horse:
Race 5 :1: Noble Steed (9-5): In his second career race after he had closed to run a good third behind Sparkling Dragon (66) in his debut. In here was bounced around at the start nothing to compromise his race but still enough that it will sometimes affect young runners to take their minds off the issue, but it didn’t seem to bother him. Settled mid-pack chasing a front runner who eventually was eased in the lane, was in tight three wide entering the stretch and quickly accelerated when asked by Prebble and drew away from a nice Class 4 field under a hand ride with his ears picked straight up. Picked up 8 points which will allow him to run again in Class 4 and the extra 8 pounds shouldn’t be an issue.

Past watch list runner:
Race 9 :2: Simply Brilliant (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :1: Noble Steed (9-5)
Race 6 :1: King’s Man (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :3: Five Stars Agent (12-1)
Race 8 :2: Sir Redalot (11-1)
Race 10 :1: Solar Hei Hei (9-1)

woodbinepmi
01-06-2018, 02:21 PM
F.Y.I. First post time tonight is 12am Eastern and 9pm West Coast.

woodbinepmi
01-08-2018, 09:01 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 7, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 201, 223, 241 & 255

Notes for the day:
Most of the money in the first was placed on the first time starters going five furlongs, halfway thru the race all hell broke loose. At the 400 metre mark Leung took People’s Champion (52) to the outside looking for room to run but in so doing too out Ray’s Call (48) pushing him out into the middle of the track, then Refined Treasure (52) almost went down at the 190 mark when Moreira on Noble Delight (52) was forced out by Golden Dash (60) who drifted out just a bit. Sempiternal (45) was taking a drop in class and was exiting out of a key race (229) and drew away from the field at the top of the lane paying $17.40. Charter Thunder (50) used the 15 lbs. weight allowance to hold off Gran Master (62) who picks up the 2 rating points to move up to Class 3 races. Morethanlucky (82) picks up 8 points after easily defeating an average Class 3 field, his speed figures are a little light for Class 2 so will sit and see how he handles the hike better betting on him. In the 5th Lucky Time (57) was stuck on the rail and was all covered up, Clipperton eventually just wrapped up and conceded the race to others, hopefully he’ll get a draw more in the middle next time out. Another runner out of that race to give another look to is Good For You (57), he ran into a little trouble early on then was forced wide in the turn, a total throw out. King;s Man (58) had no excuse for not winning was in a perfect position entering the stretch while catching a favourite who has shown a complacency in winning, but showed no heart and threw the anchor in pretty easily, in that same race Berry gave Mighty Boy (54) a real poor ride, rushing him into a fast pace entering the turn three wide, not good. Five furlong specialist Premiere (110) waited for the lone front runner to tire and scooted away from the rest without much effort, the most intriguing event of that race was after the race. A lot of times the jockeys like to stand up and salute the crowd as they pass the line, when Teetan did that Premiere drifted out right in front of Fabulous One (102) with Lai having to check him up to avoid him from clipping heels, Teetan was reprimanded for the grand standing. In the 8th the beaten favourite Amazing Star (62) was a very quick pull up after the race, love playing against those types next time they run. In the ninth Purton cost Simply Brilliant (80) the win, after the eventual winner Ping Hai Star (87) took a left turn right out of the gate and surrendered at least 4 lengths to the field. Purton looked to have his race wrapped up without noticing Moreira getting thru on the inside after Zach had put the stick away, by the time he realized what was happening he couldn’t catch up. Doctor Geoff (88) almost won the finale when he continued to shy from the stick of Teetan and at the wire was against the outside rail, he will have to run in a barrier trial before racing again.

Horse to watch for next out list:
Race 1 #6 Refined Treasure (52): Was heavily bet in his first time out for the Millard barn, was unlucky in the draw getting the 2 hole which is an outside post in the 5 furlong straight races. Broke a little slow, and then settled mid-pack became a little rank at the 600 metre mark when in company, had to take up slightly when Moreira’s mount Nolble Delight drifted in. Then bumped Hot Hot Pepper very hard at the 250 mark, and when the eventual winner drifted out back into Noble Delight he came out and almost took Refined Treasure down when they clipped heals, after that there was nothing left but for Teetan to wrap up and thank the racing Gods he didn’t go down. After the race a Vet inspection found no significant damage to him.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 8 #12 Amazing Star (62): As stated earlier, he was a quick pull up in the gallop out.

Speed Figures:
1st (319): 96
2nd (320): +93
3rd (321): +95
4th (322): -100
5th (323): -94#
6th (324): +98
7th (325): 110
8th (326): 99
9th (327): +103
10th (328): +100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
01-09-2018, 09:08 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. January 10, 2018 Thirty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 52 degrees Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180110_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180110_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :4: Actuariat (3-1): Winless after 24 races in Hong Kong, may win but not with my money.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 147 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 1 :11: Carry To Win (33-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 3 :1: Alcazar (58-1)
Race 8 :7: Key Witness (23-1)

Race 241 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 3rd)
Race 5 :11: Encore Boy (5-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 :7: Ten Flames (19-1)

High percentage Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 7 :2: Dr Win Win (9-2)

Horses that have an appreciation for Happy Valley:
Race 6 :7: Packing Dragon (22-1)
Race 8 :12: Blocker Dee (8-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 5 :3: Moment Of Power (6-1)
Race 6 :3: Dinozzo (9-1)
Race 8 :4: Perpetual Joyance (6-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runner:
Race 5 :4: Money Boy (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 :1: Eagle Way (8-1)
Race 7 :9: Mister Monte (2-1)
Race 8 :2: Mr Genuine (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :6: Rugby Diamond (9-1)
Race 3 :2: Love Chunghwa (29-1)

woodbinepmi
01-11-2018, 06:49 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 10, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Tough beat in the first for us Key Race players, the chalk beat us by on a head bob at 34-1! In that same race King’s Steed (18) ran a typical Class 5 race, was rank early and became disinterested afterwards, very inconsistent class of horses. Exceptional Desire’s (63) earned him enough points to rate out of Class 4 and after a hard race the rise will probably be a little more for him to handle. I don’t put down too many bad ride notes on Moreira’s trips, but did in the third, Nashashuk (50) was bet down in his first race since June mostly due to the presence of the Brazilian, he became rank early on and he just wouldn’t settle down for him and looked like he was interested in fighting Moreira than running, The Show (42) put in a decent effort after travelling wide into the stretch after chasing a slow pace by a big winner. Race 4 Pearl Warm Warm (46) will be looked at very closely next time he runs, was full of run entering the stretch but when he moved down to the rail for room he was totally blocked without anywhere to accelerate and Leung pretty much put him away for the last 100 metres. Race 5 has come back a little tougher than your normal Class 3 affair at the Valley, even with the highest ranked horse at 72 going into a 80-60 rating race. Winner Money Boy (74) ran a figure good enough to compete against Class 2 runners but will be able and stay in the lower class for his next race. Race 6 Group 3 route, Eagle Way (116) just outclassed that field, hopefully Packing Dragon (94) will drop back into a condition that he’s more comfortable with like Class 2, broke poorly and then had to go three wide in the first turn, that right there is enough to run the line thru that race. Doyeni (95) had trouble at the start but looked like he didn’t want any part of running, at one point I thought he was going to pull a Pakistan Star on us and stop running all together, after some STRONG urging by Prebble he closed all well in the lane, very confusing run by him. Something has to be wrong with Dr Win Win (78) ran very poorly and was a very quick pull up after the race, will check on the Vet’s list on him next time he goes out. Very impressive win by Winning Faith (74) after he walked out the gate conceding at least 2 lengths to the field and following a slow pace made a huge run in the lane making the others look like pony horses, lots left in the tank on the observation, ears were pricked straight up crossing the line. In the finale Purton looked like he may have moved Mr Genuine (94) a little too early, getting caught at the wire by the distance specialist Perpetual Joyance (93), Super Fluke (87) closed well in the stretch but raced a little too far back. Sea Jade (91) was high weight in there but couldn’t keep up with the pace and was not asked in the stretch and pulled up soon after the wire.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 #6 Sharpmind (48): Is in top form at the moment with a win and two seconds in his last three races but was a victim of a bad draw and was taken to the back of the field to avoid the short turn after the break. Race 3 wide in the turn dead last, moved to the middle of the track, and took off when asked only to miss by a length against the Moreira ride on Exceptional Desire (63).

Race 6 #9 Citron Spirit (93): In his first try at Graded company was bet down to 5-1, was bumped out of the gate but looked not to be of any concern just a simple racing incident. Raced three lengths off the leaders in a slow early pace 2 wide in the first turn, was on par with the classier winner Eagle Way (116) entering the stretch, but when straightened up was stuck behind Packing Dragon (94) and when he tried to pass him Dinozzo (100) drifted in and forced Schofield to check him up and totally took him out of the race. After that incident Chad gave the complementary ride thru not to get into trouble, galloped out well and hopefully will return to Class 2 next out.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Dr Win Win (78): As stated earlier he was a 3-1 second choice that ran last and pulled up quickly.

Speed Figures:
1st (329): 90
2nd (330): 97 ?
3rd (331): -96
4th (332): -95
5th (333): 104
6th (334): -105
7th (335): -100
8th (336): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
01-12-2018, 08:43 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 13, 2018 Thirty-eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 60 degrees sunny 0% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180113_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180113_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 201 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 6th & 12th)
Race 8 :10: Strathspey (5-2)

Race 241 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 3rd)
Race 3 :5: Dragon Pioneer (12-1)
Race 9 :2: Happy Meteor (10-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 9 :5: Golden Sun (12-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Smart Declaration (7-1)
Race 4 :6: Mambo Rock (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 5 :1: Lean Perfection (7-2)
Race 10 :6: Turin Redstar (5-2)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :6: People’s Knight (5-1)
Race 7 :10: Sunny Win (10-1)
Race 9 :7: Pick Number One (7-5)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
Race 10 :2: Star Majestic (22-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :2: Turf Sprint (5-1)
Race 7 :1: Classic Emperor (9-5)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :4: Golden Sleep (15-1)
Race 8 :1: Hay Run (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 10 :10: Flying Lover (46-1)

woodbinepmi
01-15-2018, 06:00 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 13, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 202 & 272

Notes for the day:
While the races were going on, it looked like there was a closer’s bias but after a closer inspection of the results and how the races shaped I made a judgement call that there was no bias. The first was a weak field of Class 5 runners even with the final time being just a little above par, winner G-One Union (40) paid $56 to win, maybe the only one to watch for is Kwaichung Brothers (39) was making a winning move at the 200 metre mark by splitting two runners but had to check up when he got into the hole. In the 2nd both Golden Sleep (59) and Presidentialparamount (48) both encountered enough trouble to total excuse their races, Presidentialparamount’s speed figures may not be fast enough to win until he gets down to Class 5 though. Turf Sprint (79) was covered up with no running room in the 5 furlong sprint Class 3 third, the betting favourite Beauty Energy (76) first time starter for So ridden by Purton ran a very poor race but will give another chance when he gets to go further, his two wins in England were at the longer distance 8 furlongs. Plenty of trouble in the 4th, Super Chic (77), Sharp Sailor (75) and Gorgeous Again (60) were effected at the start when Rule Thee (67) broke outward and the winner Giant Turtle (74) breaking in, the winner showed plenty of heart not giving it up in the lane while tiring and going back off his proper lead at the 140 metres. Race 5 Sunny Power (52) was very green in the lane after racing wide into the stretch but continued to close while under a heavy ride by Ho. Massive Move (51) picked up 5 rating points after winning a slow Class 4 on the dirt while getting a big weight allowance to the second place runner Pakistan Baby (61) who just can’t find a race to win, now he is forced up in class after that showing. In the 8th Hay Run (60) finished very well to the wire after running into traffic issues in the stretch, the 9-2 third betting choice Strathspey (49) was a quick pull-up under the French rider Boudet after the line. Race 9 the big favourite Pick Number One (76) held on for the win in a strong Class 3 race that was faster than par, but here is Purton’s line after the race “He’s done a good job to come as far as he has, but quite possibly he’s at the end of it. There was a lot more pressure in the race today, he was a little bit uncomfortable on the corner so he’s done well to balance himself up again and find like he did. However, he was gassed on the line.” They are putting him on the shelf to recover for a while. In the last Hard Ball Get (70) was covered up in the stretch and was never asked to run by bug boy Poon.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (341) #3 Nice Kick (57): Was ridden today by Clipperton due to the suspension of Moreira after a nice win going six furlongs against Class 4 runners. Was bumped out of the gate slightly but nothing of significance, settle in the second flight but entering the turn had to stop his momentum when Super Hero Star started falling back off the lead. Moved to the three path half-way in the turn, where he was boxed in behind the eventual favourite winner Lean Perfection (67) entering the stretch, when the winner was making his winning move Nice Kick had to deal with a tiring Amazing Satchmo laid into his path causing him to hesitate in the hole, Sam pretty much just wrapped up in him afterwards not really asking for him in useless situation and galloped out well.

Race 10 (346) #6 Turin Redstar (72): In his second start in Hong Kong after an uneventful first try while drawing the 12 hole on a ‘C+3’ track for Lor, picked up Zach for the ride and the rail at the draw. Broke well and settled mid-pack on the backside, moved off the rail slightly entering the stretch after chasing a slow early pace set by the second place finisher Bullish Smart (74), became rank while looking for room at the 350 metre mark, was blocked until there was only 70 metres to go and exploded to the line without any encouragement from Purton.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 Hair Trigger (73): Beat a weak field with an unproven first timer in Hong Kong that needs to go longer in a slow time.
Speed Figures:
1st (337): 93
2nd (338): -95
3rd (339): -97 ?
4th (340): -99
5th (341): -99
6th (342): 94 ?
7th (343): 102
8th (344): +97
9th (345): 103
10th (346): -98

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
01-16-2018, 04:21 PM
Hong Kong at Happy Valley. January 17, 2018 Thirty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 61 degrees 10% of rain Wind: E 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180117_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180117_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :6: Don’t Miss (7-2): Was helped by a perfect trip and a favourite who had all kinds of trouble and a serious weight advantage in his last, there's more early speed in here to contend with.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 148 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 1st & 3rd)
Race 3 :3: Hero Look (11-1)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 7 :11: Go Go Win (19-1)

Race 229 (Winners: 2nd, 6th & 8th, second: 4th)
Race 3 :10: Balay Balay (15-1)
Race 5 :6: Istanbul Bey (15-1)
Race 5 11 Fruitful Life (13-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :10: Gouten Of Garo (6-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: Wealthy Fortune (15-1)
Race 5 :1: Wah May Baby (10-1)
Race 6 :1: Fairy Twins (7-1)
Race 8 :11: Happy Surveys (27-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 2 :4: Winning Controller (2-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 6 :5: Arm Runda (4-1)
Race 6 :8: Powermax (5-1)
Race 8 :6: Prince Harmony (10-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 5 :2: Crown Avenue (5-1)
Race 6 :1: Fairy Twins (7-1)
Race 7 :1: Imperial Gallantry (4-1)

Class specialists:
Race 2 :1: Amazing Always (11-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :9: Generous Heart (7-1): Was unlucky to draw the 12 hole in the route in his return to the turf after his try on the dirt at Sha Tin, threw his head at the start sending him to the rear soon afterwards. Was asked entering the final turn at the same time the eventual winner was starting his run going wide Moreira on board, but wasn’t allowed to extend himself forward due to having to wait for Ishvara in front of him, was totally boxed in on the rail while Moreira was running away from the field, Purton never asked him to run in the stretch.


Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :2: Breeders’ Star (14-1)
Race 6 :10: Diamond Master (21-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :1: The Judge (3-1)
Race 7 :9: Generous Heart (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 8 :6: Prince Harmony (10-1)

woodbinepmi
01-18-2018, 09:51 AM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 17, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 269

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (347): 96 Out of the four first timers only Majestic Dragon (52) received any money in the wagering pools, Poor ride by Mo rushing Look Eras (57) into the duel going three wide instead of sitting right off of it and waiting for the duelers to tire out. The favourite winner Zero Hedge (59) was the recipient of the duel while saving ground on the turn, big move for the longshot Showing Character (50) after having to swing wide entering the stretch while on his wrong lead step.

Race 2 (348): 91 There was a line of five runners at the wire, but no excuses for the chalk Winning Controller (38) who had a perfect spot for the run home but just didn’t want to pass others, who had a more early stressful race than he did. Rising Power (22) was slow from the gate then became rank in the first turn, Happy Friendship (21) almost got up after a nice ride by Chadwick with the light weight of 113 versus the winners 133 pounds. Winner Amazing Always (45) is now 6 for 10 in Class 5, too bad he’s now retiring from racing, love ATM horses.

Race 3 (349): -94# The early pace was very pedestrianly slow, winner All Best Friends (65) outran the slight favourite Peace On Earth (44) while conceding 25 pounds and a more difficult trip, the pace setter Bingo (42) held on for a game second and Magic Success (50) closed well but too far back to make up the ground. Peace On Earth looked to be a quick pull up soon after the race.

Race 4 (350): -100 I was wrong in this one, thought there would be more pace for the winner Don’t Miss (60) but I guess the other riders didn’t listening, he was allowed to set a very slow pace and when The Judge (60) made his move going three wide in the turn was unable to catch him after that easy trip, stays in the Class 4 with picking up only 1 rating point.

Race 5 (351): 92 The pace in here like a lot of races in Hong Kong starts quickly early on then the brakes are slammed in the middle of the race, there have been complaints about it lately but it still continues. The betting choice High Volatility (58) looked to be in a good spot in the stretch but looked like he refused to split a couple runners, one of the two key race runners Istanbul Bay (51) put in a real nice effort only beaten by ¾ a length after going wide the entire trip. The winner Sangria (61) entered the stretch five wide in the back and caught them all just near the wire.

Race 6 (352): 104 A fast run Class 3 race on a slow track with an average pace early on, the winner Jade Theatre (79) made it two for the night for runners that were exiting dirt races and returning to the turf, it seems like there is always at least on a night at Happy Valley. Second place finisher Breeders’ Star (79) closed well in the stretch after having to slightly wait behind the winner for room and just ran out of real estate late, the favourite Royal Mojito (63) looked uncomfortable and was never asked by Prebble for an effort afterwards.

Race 7 (353): -100 Another five horse blanket finish with the winner Pretty Bauhinia (72) closing on the outside just getting up at the wire in a par final speed figure, looked mid-stretch that the longshot Play Wise (72) was going to get home but 100 metres out he began to tire and was just nipped. At the top of the lane Right Honourable (64) was hesitant in splitting two runners which may have cost him the win, he gathered himself well after he was given room and finished off gaining. The favourite Calculation (78) started leaning in at the top of the lane and threw in the anchor without showing any effort.

Race 8 (354): 101# Another start-stop-start pace, Berry on Who Else But You (77) took the lead then slammed everything down costing a few runners entering the turn to take up Cheerful Jet (67), Blaze Stamina (70) and Charity Glory (72). Star Of Joy (67) was a little slow out of the gate which really affected his usual running position near the front then soon afterwards became very rank in the short turn, while the big winner Flying Tourbillon (84) had a perfect trip sitting on the rail right behind the leaders and a hole opened up and scooted away while the favourite was running into trouble near the rail.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (351) #2 Crown Avenue (59):After an impressive win paying $28 going 9 furlongs while breaking from the 12 hole, drew a more favourable post (#2) and was helped when the runner on the rail broke slow leaving him alone to get over and save ground in the turn but soon in the first turn had to take up when High Volatility slowed down in front of him. Recovered well afterwards until the stretch run where he was stuck behind a tiring front runner and the favourite who was refusing to split rivals. Rispoli was never allowed to get into him while being steadied and only to finished 2 ½ lengths off the winner.

Race 8 (354) #7 Cheerfuljet (67): In his first try up in Class 3 after two very nice wins at the lower level, broke well in front but was taken back soon afterwards by Callan and was allowed to sit off the two duelers on the lead. He became rank when Berry brought Who Else But You (77) into his path on the backside for around a 100 metres, then got in tight when Berry slammed on the brakes entering the turn. Started to split the tiring duelers at the 250 mark but they started drifting in and out and pinched him backwards as soon as he was in the gap, finally at the 150 mark Callan had to stand up in the irons and surrender his position, the staple was put in at that mark for that effort, it cost Whyte two racing days for the incident.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

woodbinepmi
01-20-2018, 02:39 PM
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 21, 2018 Fortieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees partly cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180121_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180121_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 :7: Dances With Dragons (3-1): Had a very impressive record before arriving in Hong Kong, but was dead on the board in his debut. Ran a descent race while getting beat by an easy win for the favourite, there are others in here who may be a little faster than he is at this moment, and the 12 hole with the short run to the turn isn’t going to help his cause.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *747 (Winners: 5th & 7th, second: 3rd & 12th)
Race 7 :2: Perpetual Joyance (9-2)

Race *807 (Winners: 3rd & 6th, second: 1st)
Race 10 :2: Chimboraa (43-1)

Race 201 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 6th & 12th)
Race 5 :3: E Master (20-1)
Race 5 :6: Noble De Love (6-1)

Race 210 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 10th)
Race 2 :5: Telephatia (18-1)
Race 2 :12: Holy Unicorn (5-1)

Race 224 (Winners: 1st, 3rd, 5th & 6th, second: 9th)
Race 7 :11: Green Card (8-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :1: Kingston One (79-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :3: Happy Journey (37-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 2 :1: Audacity (4-1)
Race 10 :3: Simply Brilliant (5-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 9 :1: Nothingilikemore (4-5)
Race 10 :4: Conte (4-5)

Distance specialists:
Race 6 :9: Infinity Endeavour (3-5)
Race 7 :2: Perpetual Joyance (9-2)
Race 7 :9: Lucky Wan Feng (8-1)
Race 9 :10: Morethanlucky (8-1)

Class specialists:
Race 8 :3: Pingwu Spark (4-5)
Race 8 :5: Magic Legend (15-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :2: Born In China (24-1): Went off at 6-1 in the tough Class 2 final while breaking from the 9 gate with the short run to the mini turn at 6 furlongs. Was bumped pretty good by House Of Fun soon after the start and forced back with Wah May Friend trying to get over with the short run to the turn which put this one in the rear of the field, not where he wants to be. Became rank at the 450 metre mark looking for room with full of run, moved to the seven path in the stretch but had to wait for room, then started a nice run to the wire that was around 200 metres long but was unable to catch the winner Archippus (107) who had a much easier trip. (Was hoping he would stay at Happy Valley where he’s record is much better than at Sha Tin)

Race 9 :9: Lockheed (13-1): In only his second race in Hong Kong where he was bet down as the chalk in both tries, and was able to retain the services of Moreira again. Was bumped slightly leaving the gate, nothing all that significant though, settled about three lengths off a slow pace while looking uncomfortable in his stride down the backside. Moved closer to the leaders entering the stretch while racing on the rail, had to wait for room early in the stretch then when it did become available a tiring front runner Eastern Express (94) drifted out at the 150 metre mark forcing Moreira to take up on him while at the same time the eventual winner Kingfield (87) was able to advantage of the situation and get away from Lockheed, Moreira wrapped up on him afterwards.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 :2: Healthy Joyful (5-2)
Race 5 :1: Sun Touch (7-2)
Race 8 :2: Born In China (24-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :4: Good For You (9-1)
Race 5 :8: Wonderful Tiger (33-1)
Race 7 :6: Verbinsky (13-1)
Race 8 :5: Magic Legend (15-1)

woodbinepmi
01-22-2018, 06:19 PM
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 21, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 298

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (355): -87 Race filled mostly with lightly raced runners, the chalk Thou Shall Sing (54) broke from the 12 hole which is close to the rail in the 5 furlong races at Sha Tin was in tight early on and when room became available it looked as if the hole was moving faster than he was. The winner Lucky Volatility (58) who had plenty of barrier trials but was also a maiden runner broke from the outside and raced in the middle of the course which rarely happens in these type of races. Moreira’s ride Noble Delight (50) gave it up after 3 furlongs again, looks like he may have no heart.

Race 2 (356): 91 A below par Class 5 race going the marathon distance of 10 furlongs, the favourite Amritsaria (39) had only win in his record and it was at this distance at Sha Tin after 19 races, Boudot used him up early to get the lead then took him back when a couple longshots engaged him on the backside, fought well in the stretch but was just a little short. The winner Audacity (45) had a perfect trip 2 wide right behind the duelers and a hole opened at the top of the stretch, but Rawiller had to get to the bottom all the way to the wire, will play against him when he goes up to Class 4 next out. Nice efforts by the next three runners: Rock The Tree (40), Pearl Puru (35) and Sweet Bean (32).

Race 3 (357): 104 Healthy Joyful (80) stumbled out of the gate costing him a few lengths off of where he should have been on the backside, probably did him in right there, closed well but was never going to catch the winner. Volitation (74) sat in a perfect striking position and pounced when asked by Teetan and exploded to the wire running a figure well above par, should have plenty in the tank for the next out. Race may prove to be a key race soon.

Race 4 (358): 93 The winner Destin (52) at the 200 metre mark drifted in and bothered Vital Spring (43) causing him to take up, in the States that may have been a DQ but not in Hong Kong, don’t know if he would have won even with the infraction, also the winner was helped by Red Elysees (55) who habitually refuses to change leads in the stretch, may have gotten up if not for that. Nice finish by the third place runner Lucky Time (58) after entering the stretch in the 6 path but he too raced on his wrong lead step.

Race 5 (359): 93 Rispoli was able to get Formula Galore (44) to the lead without much effort while breaking from the 14 hole and soon grabbed him and let Great Sun () engage him causing the field to bunch up. That forced Noble De Love (52) who was bet after a short break and E Master (56) to go four wide in the turn, that’s a losing proposition in HK. Winner Sun Touch (65) had an all out fight to the wire while giving up 21 pounds to longshot Unique Joyful (43). Avellino (58) was rank while wanting room on the turn in the rear of the field and closed well after being blocked and never asked to run by O Doleuze.

Race 6 (360): 106 A big final figure for California Fortune (86), I was a little skeptical of it at first glance but after closer inspection of the other runners was satisfied that the number is legit. It was a perfect run for him, had a couple runners that thought about running with him early on but they soon fell back and he coasted home, only problem was he ducked out a little near the wire, most likely from a photographer Chadwick said. First timer in Hong Kong Wishful Thinker (74) made a nice close late with a little coxing, but was never going to catch the winner even if they went around again.

Race 7 (361): 102 The favourite Dances With Dragons (85) was in his second race after a nice career in New Zealand, but drew a bad post with the short run to the turn, was severely asked to run with 300 metres to go but there was nothing there. The finish line was a packed place, with 7 runners within 2 lengths of the winner in a little slower than par Class 2 event. Key Witness (87) closed to the line but was edged out on the bob after going wide into the stretch, Whyte had to use everything there was in Verbinsky (92) to get up at the wire for the win.

Race 8 (362): -104 Another win for the favourite Pingwu Spark (109) who is now 5 for 7 in Hong Kong, he always likes to make it very interesting, he doesn’t draw off from the others but gets up most of the time. Baba Mama (82) was forced out 4 wide when he tried to cover the winner up half-way in the turn but the 1,300 pounder just shoved his way thru. Wah May Friend (106) was the unfortunate one that had to look him in the eye this week, and Easy Go Easy Win (86) was covered up for half the stretch but when room was made available he was gaining on the winner at the wire but was just a little unlucky with the trip.

Race 9 (363): +109 The Hong Kong Classic Mile, the first leg of the 4 year old triple crown. The impressive winner and favourite Nothingilikemore (112) improved his overall record to 6 wins out of 7 races with a second he held off with ease an improving Singapore Sling (100) and Morethanlucky (92) who picked up 10 rating points after the race. Exultant (102) made a nice move after coming into the stretch extremely wide but was too far back and was chasing a runner who wasn’t going to be caught. Really poor efforts by both Time To Celebrate (95) and Lockheed (88).

Race 10 (364): -104 Conte (86) made it a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime after getting an easy lead and was able to coast home without any true pressure, should be able to handle the class hike with his speed figures are good enough to win most Class 2 races. Roundabout (71) closed well in the stretch after being rank earlier in the race. Berry gave the newcomer Beauty Miles (80) are very poor ride, sending him 4 wide in the turn after it looked like there was room to get over on the backside, have been very disappointed by his riding so far in Hong Kong.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (359) #6 Noble De Love (52): Was coming off a short break in which he had ran a very disappointing 13th finish from bleeding after going off as the 4-5 favourite, was bet down today to 3-1 as the second choice in the betting. Drew a very unfavourable 13 post with Teetan on instead of Moreira who chose another runner in here, settled mid-pack while Teetan was looking the whole way down the backside for a place to settle in closer to the rail but to no avail, was forced to go 4 wide in the turn at least with some cover, fought well down the lane only to get beat by less than 2 lengths by the high weight who had a much easier trip.

Race 8 (362) #4 Racing Supernova (102): Was dropping down from a fast Class 1 to this Class 2 event, but was unfortunate to draw a Pingwu Spark (109) who is on his way to bigger and better races than this. Took his usual running position in the rear of the field, in a slowly run early pace, Rawiller was hoping to find a gap on the rail but was there was nothing there for him. He waited and waited and waited but nothing ever materialized for him, finally at the 100 metre mark he had to check up when one of the tiring runners in front of him came back to him, he never asked him to run but the most interesting thing was even though he finished 4 ¾ lengths back he galloped out past the field after the race.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 (358): Destin (52): Had a perfect trip and still had to fight off two runners who didn’t change leads in a slowly run Class 4 race.


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.