2017-2018 HONG KONG

[Hanger]

I just think its funny Twinspires has kicked a few of my bet drafts out, silly dutch bet didnt work well in HK.

It has $26 win on video screen, but when I do a win for $26 it says invalid in draft form. Saves me from dutch betting some value horses...

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....6-4-5 W/ 14-8-12 ……3:35 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-8-2-14 Nothing there
Not much action on the Winner

[Nitro]

I just think its funny Twinspires has kicked a few of my bet drafts out, silly dutch bet didnt work well in HK.

It has $26 win on video screen, but when I do a win for $26 it says invalid in draft form. Saves me from dutch betting some value horses...
I haven't had too many issues using TVG. (knock on wood)

[Hanger]

I haven't had too many issues using TVG. (knock on wood)

yea i was playin a few on that last race, i was sitting here trying to do path, for some quinellas, if I selected 13, it would say base bet not accepted for it, but allows it from video screen.

Feels like its just Twinspires trying to lock out the batch uploads for HK. Too much value perhaps out there. I am not even a conspiracy person lol

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1200M C4 (6F)T……....2-3-4 W/ 12-7 ......4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity closely)

[Hanger]

R#7 – 1200M C4 (6F)T……....2-3-4 W/ 12-7 ......4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity closely)

Exciting finish, did not have the :6: though with the :4: and :2:

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1200M C4 (6F)T……....2-3-4 W/ 12-7 ......4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity closely)

Results - 6-4-2-12 Nothing there
No action on the Big LS Winner

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1400M C3 (7F)T…..…2-3-5 W/ 7-1-9 ………4:35 AM EST

[Hanger]

R#8 - 1400M C3 (7F)T…..…2-3-5 W/ 7-1-9 ………4:35 AM EST

Looks like late money on the :10:

[fellowmen]

R#8 - 1400M C3 (7F)T…..…2-3-5 W/ 7-1-9 ………4:35 AM EST

im glad you like the 5

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1400M C3 (7F)T…..…2-3-5 W/ 7-1-9 ………4:35 AM EST

Results - 5-10-2-1 Nice Dutch Win
Lots of Late action on #10
LOW....MID....HI......TOT......TOT.......PRF %
3.9......5.4.....5.5.....BET......PRF
$10....$13.....$13
$260...$200...$200...$660.....$610......93%

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.….….2-4-1 W/ 5-8 ….….5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.….….2-4-1 W/ 5-8 ….….5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 4-6-1-11 Only a 17% Profit Margin on the Dutch Win – No Play
No action on #6 the LS Placer

[Hanger]

Results - 4-6-1-11 Only a 17% Profit Margin on the Dutch Win – No Play
No action on #6 the LS Placer


I was watching and agreed, no dutch action, but the last minute money on 4 drew me in for a W/P bet. The tote at HK really does scream the last 3 minutes. At least made it worth fading the chalk.

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T.......3-4-12 W/ 2-8 …….5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

I was watching and agreed, no dutch action, but the last minute money on 4 drew me in for a W/P bet. The tote at HK really does scream the last 3 minutes. At least made it worth fading the chalk.

Nice Goin' !! :ThmbUp:

[Hanger]

Nice Goin' !! :ThmbUp:

thanks!!
I'm enjoying the races, I am up late frequently on Sunday/Wednesdays, I might have to make a go of this.

These races are contested and exciting, which I don't get at the NYRA 5 horse fields anymore.

[Hanger]

Everything is saying the 8 here, too much chalk I think, see what the last 2 minutes bring

[Hanger]

:4::8:
dutch

[Hanger]

:4::8:
dutch

Oh I wanted the :8: to hold that one LOL..

Oh well, a lil profit with the :4: and had the Quinella.

Thanks Nitro, I'll be back!!

[Hanger]

:8: was all over, no wonder an objection lol

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T.......3-4-12 W/ 2-8 …….5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 4-8-1-3
Decent Dutch Win
Quin - $13.60
Good late action on #8 the LS Placer

LOW....MID....HI......TOT......TOT.......PRF %
1.7......3.7.....35......BET......PRF
$5.......$9.......$72
$400...$230...$30...$660.....$420........64


Have a Great day!

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections from another competitive card.
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 10 races on the Turf:
(from top to bottom) -
(1)-Graded Stakes (1)-Class2, (3)-Class3, (4)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

Good Luck if you're playing!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…..6-4-8 W/ 9-3 ….….12:45 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…..6-4-8 W/ 9-3 ….….12:45 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 9-4-2-6
Dutch Loss, but Passed less than 50% margin
Quin - $7.50 – no Value
Solid action on both Top betting choices

[Nitro]

R#2 - 2000M C5 (10F)T….. 4-8-10 W/ 9-3-6 …..…1:15 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#2 - 2000M C5 (10F)T….. 4-8-10 W/ 9-3-6 …..…1:15 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 10-6-7-13
Dutch Win, 79% margin
Quin - $34.10 –
Late action on the Winner


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.1 4.0 7.7 BET PRF
$8 $10 $17
$170 $140 $80 $400 $310 79%
$710 $710 $710

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1200M C4 (7F)T…..2-3-7 W/ 6-9-13 .......1:45 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1200M C4 (7F)T…..2-3-7 W/ 6-9-13 .......1:45 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-2-6/7
ALL of that one! (DH for 3rd)
Dutch Win, Passed only 34% margin
Quin - $17.70 –
Solid action on the Winner

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..3-8-14 W/ 2-10-11 …....2:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

[AltonKelsey]

Big steam on the 12. race 4...


Turns out it was all steam, no substance

[Nitro]

Big steam on the 12. race 4...


Turns out it was all steam, no substance

Not my kind of steam. Plus a bad post. ;)

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..3-8-14 W/ 2-10-11 …....2:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-14-5-10
Dutch Win, Passed only 11% margin
Quin - $14.50 –
Solid action on the Top 2 finishers

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.……3-5-9 W/ 6-8-14 …....3:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.……3-5-9 W/ 6-8-14 …....3:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-6-5-7
Dutch Win, Passed only 24% margin
Quin - $23.60 –
Solid action on the Favorite

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....1-5-10 W/ 3-9-4 ……3:40 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....1-5-10 W/ 3-9-4 ……3:40 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 5-3-4-13
Dutch Win, Passed only 41% margin
Quin - $30.00 – Tri Bx- $525.60
Solid action on the Winner

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1600M G3 (8F)T……....2-1-8 W/ 3-4 ......4:10 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1600M G3 (8F)T……....2-1-8 W/ 3-4 ......4:10 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)


Results - 8-2-4-3
ALL of that one!
Dutch Win, Passed only 26% margin
Quin - $11.20 – Tri - $139.40
Solid action on the Winning Favorite

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1000M C3 (5F)T…..…6-3-1 W/ 12-5-13 ………4:40 AM EST

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1000M C3 (5F)T…..…6-3-1 W/ 12-5-13 ………4:40 AM EST

Results - 6-12-13-9
BIG Dutch Win, with 169% margin
Quin - $11.80 – Tri - $111.00
Solid action on the Winner (Early & Late)


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.2 8.0 9.0 BET PRF
$12 $18 $20
$260 $180 $160 $600 $1010 169%
$1610 $1620 $1600

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R9


:6: looks good Nitro. :ThmbUp::)

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….….2-5-7 W/ 9-1-3 ….….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not gonna lie. That :2: looked amazing and ready.

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….….2-5-7 W/ 9-1-3 ….….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 7-8-3-6
Nice Dutch Win, with 87% margin

Solid action on the Winner

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 5.2 15.0 BET PRF
$6 $12 $32
$350 $180 $70 $600 $520 87%
$1120 $1120 $1120

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.......12-5-14 W/ 3-6-8 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

You 3 horse 'Dutched' and didn't play any exotics losers and thus somehow won?


Come on man.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R10 Sha Tin

:8: Lockheed

[Nitro]

You 3 horse 'Dutched' and didn't play any exotics losers and thus somehow won?


Come on man.

I only make 3-entry Dutch Win bets when the profit margin is higher than 50%. I will occasionally play some Quinellas if there's anticipated value.
Try reading my opening post

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.......12-5-14 W/ 3-6-8 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 4-14-5-6
Dutch Loss, but Passed with only 10% margin

Late Heavy action on the LS Winner !!

Dutching Results: 3 for 3 with 50% or better profit margins and a 112% O.A. Profit

A Good night (morning)

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections from another competitive card.
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 8 races on Turf & 2 on Dirt:
(from top to bottom) -
(2)-Class2, (4)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 pick, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 8 races on Turf & 2 on Dirt:
(from top to bottom) - (2)-Class2, (4)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Correction:
(1) G3 Stakes - (2)-Class2, (3)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2000M C4 (10F)T…..1-2-7 W/ 5-8 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2000M C4 (10F)T…..1-2-7 W/ 5-8 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 7-2-9-1
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 26% margin
Quinella - $12.10
Solid action on the Top 3 choices

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T….. 3-8-2 W/ 5-6-7 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T….. 3-8-2 W/ 5-6-7 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 10-5-8-4
Dutch Loss, but with 59% margin
Quinella - Out
No action on the Big LS Winner @ 88/1

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1800M C3 (9F)T…..2-1-5 W/ 3-4 .......2:00 AM EST -

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1800M G3 (9F)T…..2-1-5 W/ 3-4 .......2:00 AM EST -

Results - 1-2-3-5
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 12% margin
All of that one - Quinella - $10.60
Late action on the heavily Favored Winner

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)D…..1-2-3 W/ 4-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)D…..1-2-3 W/ 4-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-12-2-1
Dutch Win, but with 57% margin
Quinella - Out
Solid early action on Winner


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 3.7 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $9 $24
$330 $200 $88 $610 $350 57%
$960 $940 $960

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……3-7-1 W/ 8-12-2 …....3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……3-7-1 W/ 8-12-2 …....3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-12-5-1
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 30% margin
Quinella - $24.70
Winning Favorite took all the late action – Moved into my top 3

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....5-1-11 W/ 10-6-7 ……3:35 AM EST –

[fellowmen]

Hi Nitro would you be so kind to jump ahead and post your winners in the pic 3? Don't think i can stay awake for the whole card. And thank you for the 3rd race i played the 1-2 over 1-2 over 3-4 ten times so i have $260 left of their money to play with

[Nitro]

Hi Nitro would you be so kind to jump ahead and post your winners in the pic 3? Don't think i can stay awake for the whole card. And thank you for the 3rd race i played the 1-2 over 1-2 over 3-4 ten times so i have $260 left of their money to play with

I would like to help you out, but because I only use the tote action to make my picks I only play on a race by race basis.

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....5-1-11 W/ 10-6-7 ……3:35 AM EST –

Results - 6-10-11-2
Dutch Loss, but Passed with only 20% margin
Quinella box - $148.30 – big Triple box there too
Placer: #10 took a lot of early action

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-3-7 W/ 4-2 ......4:05 AM EST

[fellowmen]

R#7 – 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-3-7 W/ 4-2 ......4:05 AM EST

Nice work huge score

[fellowmen]

I don't think im tierd any longer

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-3-7 W/ 4-2 ......4:05 AM EST

Results - 7-4-2-1
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 7% margin
All of that one - Quinella - $20.80 – Triple box - $535.80
Winner took solid late action

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…..…10-3-1 W/ 4-6-8 ………4:35 AM EST

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…..…10-3-1 W/ 4-6-8 ………4:35 AM EST

Results - 13-1-3-4
Dutch Loss, but Passed play with only 26% margin
Quinella - Out
LS Winner got the late action @ 2 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)D.….….6-2-1 W/ 3-11 ….….5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)D.….….6-2-1 W/ 3-11 ….….5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 1-2-12-10
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 12% margin
Quinella – $42.30
LS Winner saw good early action

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T.......2-14-7 W/ 9-11-8 …….5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #13 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T.......2-14-7 W/ 9-11-8 …….5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #13 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 14-9-2-13
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 36% margin
Quinella – $24.50 & Tri box $113.60
2nd choice Winner saw good action throughout the betting cycle

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
There aren’t too many race days left for this meet. So, I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections from another VERY competitive card.
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 7 races on Turf & 3 on Dirt: (from top to bottom) -
(1)-Class2, (4)-Class3, (4)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 pick, but they generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined entry values add up to potentially decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

[AltonKelsey]

1 Fave bet very poorly in a race filled with pro losers


got nothing


placer 60-1 not a dime


fave also picking up 30 lbs. You must be kidding

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 9-5-10-11
Dutch Win, with 83% margin (late sub w/#7 -)
Quinella – Out
3rd choice Winner got solid late action dropping 5 points @ 5 mins to post


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.6 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $17 $24
$410 $140 $100 $650 $540 83%
$119 $120 $120



Have to watch that late tote activity especially on a horse which hasn't performed well lately. Funny how Jenny picked-up on #9 physicality and the odds started dropping.

[AltonKelsey]

Like how the free PP's from the DRF give you the complete silks, but NO comment in the running line. No pace times. No a lot of things.



Let's have people bet in ignorance.

[AltonKelsey]

Nitro is the best.


I don't get why all the substitutions are never posted until 15 minutes after the result though

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T….. 2-8-3 W/ 7-1 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

Like how the free PP's from the DRF give you the complete silks, but NO comment in the running line. No pace times. No a lot of things.

Let's have people bet in ignorance.

The players in HK don't seem to be betting in "ignorance".

[Nitro]

Nitro is the best.


I don't get why all the substitutions are never posted until 15 minutes after the result though

I'm not the best but it certainly doesn't take a genius to see where the action is on the board. Ignore it at your own demise!
Perhaps you should read the last 2 paragraphs of my opening post! ;)

[AltonKelsey]

The players in HK don't seem to be betting in "ignorance".




cleary, I was talking about US players, all three of them, who are trying to fathom HK.


Though Im quite sure there are at least as many clueless player in HK feeding the sharks as there are here

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T….. 2-8-3 W/ 7-1 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 2-8-3-1
Dutch Win, but passed with only 24% margin
All of that one (COLD) ! - Quinella – $18.30 & Triple - $90.00

Top 3 got solid late action throughout the betting cycle

[AltonKelsey]

TheForm pp's don't show even the simplest eqpt changes. Blinks on/off. not a damn thing.
This is not brick laying. The computer could easily pick up all this missing data .

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2000M C3 (10F)T…..3-1-4 W/ 5-2 .......2:00 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #8 the Fav – Watch Live tote activity)

[AltonKelsey]

7 heavy play , not in the list.



A bit obvious for may taste but there it is.



Posted pre race

[AltonKelsey]

And the 7 , crushed lower, out of the money.


Just showing how easy it is to post action before the race. no reason not to, unless.....


PS I have a feeling the money in HK is even dumber than the money here

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2000M C3 (10F)T…..3-1-4 W/ 5-2 .......2:00 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #8 the Fav – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 2-4-8-1
Dutch Out, with a 132% margin
Quinella – $121.90 – some great value

Winner took some early action, but drifted late

[Parkview_Pirate]

TheForm pp's don't show even the simplest eqpt changes. Blinks on/off. not a damn thing.
This is not brick laying. The computer could easily pick up all this missing data .

I agree completely with your opinion of the DRF's "past performances". It makes no sense, if you actually want to build more fan interest, not to invest a little more programming time to scan through the Hong Kong's web site, and extract out the workouts (barrier trials), records at the distance, the SpeedPro numbers, trainer and jockey stats, and the comments. Hell, even charge a buck or two for it, so that North American / DRF players don't have to become python programming web page scrapers.

Instead, we players are left with a case of worsening carpal tunnel syndrome using the cryptic PPs from the HKJC site, the DRF PPs, clicking back and forth between some of the other tools, and of course keeping an eye on the tote, which Nitro is famous for - and which provides far more guidance in the horses' chances versus the tote at most NA tracks.

Still, despite the obstacles, the racing from Sha Tin and Happy Valley is amazing, and my bets don't tilt the pools...:D

[AltonKelsey]

I see, so we ignore the bet down that lose, but add them in if they win

[AltonKelsey]

I agree completely with your opinion of the DRF's "past performances"...




Yeah, I have no idea why they are doing such a poor job for so long on this . Maybe its deliberate.



The programming is not even complicated to do and once done , its good forever.



DRF should not have to scrape anything. They should be able to get the data directly from the HK database.

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..1-5-2 W/ 4-3-6 …....2:30 AM EST

[Parkview_Pirate]

Yeah, I have no idea why they are doing such a poor job for so long on this . Maybe its deliberate.



The programming is not even complicated to do and once done , its good forever.



DRF should not have to scrape anything. They should be able to get the data directly from the HK database.

Good point. DRF seems to "promote" HK racing, putting the PPs and news out there, but not taking the extra steps to help the bettors - probably don't want to lose too many fans.

As a side note, my views on the 4th race are for a very small action bet on :7:. Was bet last time, but bled - seems to be getting a little action at the shorter distance. Like the :5: on paper, but he seems a bit cooler on the board.

Oh oh. Did I hear Jenny just say thunderstorms are in the area?:eek:

[AltonKelsey]

Another #7 got well backed and got nothing. Is it lucky 7 day in HK?

[thaskalos]

I don't understand how to pick the horses...nor do I comprehend how Nitro structures his bets. Screw it...I am going to bed.

[Nitro]

Another #7 got well backed and got nothing. Is it lucky 7 day in HK?

Unfortunately you're only looking a one pool. There's lots of other activity going. Besides your "well backed" comment is only relative to the O.A. betting activity on any particular entry. Sorry I can't divulge any more than that. But you might also wonder why I had #6 @ 47/1 in the mix (fin.4th) You're not going to have a clue by looking at just the Win pool.

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..1-5-2 W/ 4-3-6 …....2:30 AM EST

Results - 4-5-10-6
Dutch Out, with a 80% margin
Quinella – $88.80 – some great value

Winner had decent action, especially in the Quinella pool

[Nitro]

I don't understand how to pick the horses...nor do I comprehend how Nitro structures his bets. Screw it...I am going to bed.

Its no mystery Dutching 3 entries to Win when the return has a better than 50% profit margin.

Using all of the top 3 picks with the others makes for any easy Quilella play. In fact boxing all 5 or 6 doesn't take much imagination either!

Have a good sleep!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D.……2-11-3 W/ 6-10-4 …....3:00 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Another #7 got well backed and got nothing. Is it lucky 7 day in HK?

Well, not in the 4th. :) "Green lamper" gets nothing. Eight wide all the way around is "not well intended".

5th: :5: with :2::7::11:

Good luck!

[Parkview_Pirate]

Results - 4-5-10-6
Dutch Out, with a 80% margin
Quinella – $88.80 – some great value

Winner had decent action, especially in the Quinella pool

Nice Q. Congrats! Hard for me to bet on a horse with five different jocks in last five races, but the action apparently said he was live....

[thaskalos]

Its no mystery Dutching 3 entries to Win when the return has a better than 50% profit margin.

Using all of the top 3 picks with the others makes for any easy Quilella play. In fact boxing all 5 or 6 doesn't take much imagination either!

Have a good sleep!

If I quinella-boxed your 5 horses in the 3rd race for $1.30 it would have costed me $13...and I would have collected $79.23. And if I boxed your 6 horses in the 4th race it would have costed me $19.50...and I would have collected $57.72. Am I right?

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D.……2-11-3 W/ 6-10-4 …....3:00 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 11-13-7-5
Dutch Win, with a 70% margin
Quinella – Out
Winner had good action throughout


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 4.2 12.0 BET PRF
$6 $10 $26
$340 $200 $80 $620 $430 70%
$105 $104 $104

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....1-3-6 W/ 8-4-7 ……3:30 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 6: Like the :4: to sneak in late for a slice.

Boy, they sure do love to pound the Magic Man and Purton, even if those guys are on three-legged mules.

[thaskalos]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....1-3-6 W/ 8-4-7 ……3:30 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

WOW!! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Parkview_Pirate]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....1-3-6 W/ 8-4-7 ……3:30 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Very nice! Hope you snagged that tri.

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....1-3-6 W/ 8-4-7 ……3:30 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-8-6-4
All of that one - Dutch Win, with a 77% margin
Quinella – $204.20 & Triple $2229.00
Lots of early action on the LS Winner


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 3.0 27.0 BET PRF
$7 $8 $56
$310 $280 $40 $630 $490 77%
$112 $112 $112

[Nitro]

Very nice! Hope you snagged that tri.

No just the Dutch & Quinella. But I'll take it!

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1200M C2 (6F)T……....9-5-2 W/ 12-13-4 ......4:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 7: :5: with :2::9::12:

Let's see if betting a horse in the three hole will get a better trip than coming eight wide for home, like the last couple I played.

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1200M C2 (6F)T……....9-5-2 W/ 12-13-4 ......4:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 4-7-10-12
Dutch Out, but passed with only a 46% margin
Quinella – Out

Some early action on the LS Winner

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…..…1-13-4 W/ 9-8-3 ………4:40 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 8: five first time HK starters. Small win bet on :3:

[Nitro]

If I quinella-boxed your 5 horses in the 3rd race for $1.30 it would have costed me $13...and I would have collected $79.23. And if I boxed your 6 horses in the 4th race it would have costed me $19.50...and I would have collected $57.72. Am I right?

5 picks – 3 top & 2 others
Keying each one of the top 3 with the all others = 9 bets
1w/2-3-4-5 & 2w/3-4-5 & 3 w/4-5

Boxing all 5 = 10 bets
1w/2-3-4-5 & 2w/3-4-5 & 3 w/4-5 & 4w/5

6 picks – 3 top & 3 others
Keying each one of the top 3 with the all others = 12 bets
1w/2-3-4-5-6 & 2w/3-4-5-6 & 3 w/4-5-6

Boxing all 6 = 15 bets
1w/2-3-4-5-6 & 2w/3-4-5-6 & 3 w/4-5-6 & 4w/5-6 & 5w/6

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…..…1-13-4 W/ 9-8-3 ………4:40 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 1-4-13-5
All of that one - Dutch Win, but passed with only a 12% margin
Quinella – $34.00 & Triple $120.40 – That was a gift!

Top 3 got most of the betting attention

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D.….….4-1-10 W/ 11-8-9 ….….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 9: Back to the mud of the all-weather track. :2: with :9::11:

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D.….….4-1-10 W/ 11-8-9 ….….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 5-4-14-8
Dutch Out, with a 272% margin (just missed a beauty!)
Quinella – Out

No action on that Big LS 48/1 Winner

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.......5-7-10 W/ 1-6-11 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 10: Win pool tilt on :7:. Small play on him each way to round out the night....

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.......5-7-10 W/ 1-6-11 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 1-10-9-11
Dutch Out, with a 141% margin (just missed another beauty!)
Quinella – $143.10 – more great value

Lots of late action on the Winner

All in all a good morning!

[FakeNameChanged]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


Results - 9-5-10-11
Dutch Win, with 83% margin (late sub w/#7 -)
Quinella – Out
3rd choice Winner got solid late action dropping 5 points @ 5 mins to post


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.6 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $17 $24
$410 $140 $100 $650 $540 83%
$119 $120 $120



Have to watch that late tote activity especially on a horse which hasn't performed well lately. Funny how Jenny picked-up on #9 physicality and the odds started dropping.

Good morning Nitro, Wasn't the :9: your 6th choice and not the 3rd? Also do you have any programming or insights on early vs. late action, or even steady action throughout the cycle? In my tote watching, it's easier to read early action and react in time over late action. And early action on a horse that just doesn't figure(bad lines, not dropping in class, low pct. jockey, etc) seems to be a key for me. Of course, you said you don't look or use at pp's any more. Thanks for any insight.

[AltonKelsey]

Unfortunately you're only looking a one pool. There's lots of other activity going. Besides your "well backed" comment is only relative to the O.A. betting activity on any particular entry. Sorry I can't divulge any more than that. But you might also wonder why I had #6 @ 47/1 in the mix (fin.4th) You're not going to have a clue by looking at just the Win pool.




Sorry, but I look at everything. Closely. Very.

[AltonKelsey]

Race 10: Win pool tilt on :7:. Small play on him each way to round out the night....


Wasn't watching but I talked about the lucky number thing earlier.


It's a very superstitious crowd

[Nitro]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good morning Nitro, Wasn't the :9: your 6th choice and not the 3rd? Also do you have any programming or insights on early vs. late action, or even steady action throughout the cycle? In my tote watching, it's easier to read early action and react in time over late action. And early action on a horse that just doesn't figure(bad lines, not dropping in class, low pct. jockey, etc) seems to be a key for me. Of course, you said you don't look or use at pp's any more. Thanks for any insight.
Hi there Whosonfirst! Please note the following:
I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but they generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined entry values add up to potentially decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

Posted at 13 mins to post
R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)
Results
Results - 9-5-10-11
Dutch Win, with 83% margin (late sub w/#7 -)
Quinella – Out
3rd choice Winner got solid late action dropping 5 points @ 5 mins to post


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.6 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $17 $24
$410 $140 $100 $650 $540 83%
$119 $120 $120



Have to watch that late tote activity especially on a horse which hasn't performed well lately. Funny how Jenny picked-up on #9 physicality and the odds started dropping.

As stated in my opening comment (above), I always reserve the personal right to alter the preference position of the early selections based on the final tote board analysis. My entire game and final selection process is based on the dynamics of money flow during the entire betting cycle up to 4 or 5 minutes to post.

I realize that some players attempt to correlate handicapping factors with tote board activities. That may be productive at times with stateside pools, but you can’t compare the handle at ANY local track with the MILLIONS of dollars being bet on the individual races in Hong Kong. Many don’t realize that an entry dropping even a single point (8/1 to 7/1) in the Win, Place or Quinella pools involves the movement of an awful lot of money. In the race above the #9 entry was initially identified as having potential, and the final significant drop in ALL the pools identified this entry with solid win potential. It would be foolish to ignore these type of indicators.

Offering any direct insight as to how the tote analysis works is not my forte. I only use and recognize the results of what the program can provide. As far as I’m concerned anyone who tells me that they’re monitoring the flow of money visually and without the use of a computer is not really monitoring anything at all and just kidding themselves.

[AltonKelsey]

Nitro- "My entire game and final selection process is based on the dynamics of money flow during the entire betting cycle up to 4 or 5 minutes to post."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So by your own admission, you have PLENTY of time to actually post your final play LIVE, before the gates open, and not 15 minutes after the race with a miracle winner.



But you won't.



I note you do have the winner(s) in the mix a significant amount of the time, but you're picking a lot of numbers and cover the lower priced horses.


And if you're referring to me and monitoring visually, I have some very bad news for you.

I've been using the computer to track all the pools since Nixon was president.

[Nitro]

Nitro- "My entire game and final selection process is based on the dynamics of money flow during the entire betting cycle up to 4 or 5 minutes to post."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So by your own admission, you have PLENTY of time to actually post your final play LIVE, before the gates open, and not 15 minutes after the race with a miracle winner.

But you won't.

I note you do have the winner(s) in the mix a significant amount of the time, but you're picking a lot of numbers and cover the lower priced horses.

And if you're referring to me and monitoring visually, I have some very bad news for you.

I've been using the computer to track all the pools since Nixon was president.
Yes, by golly you’re correct! My personal betting certainly takes priority over any picks that I might post here. That’s because there’s MONEY involved. As far as I’m concerned that’s far more important than any subsequent comments related to those picks. I’m not sure if anyone realizes it, but once the final selections are in place it does take some time to organize and structure the bets. BTW I’m a big fan of hedging my bets when both Dutching and using adequate permutations when playing Quinellas. I’m not interested in “Picking Winners”. I prefer making Winning (Profitable) plays.

I really find it kind of amusing though that you seem to have a problem with the single race of the morning where I made a result adjustment after my initial post. Something I might add that anyone truly analyzing the tote would have immediately recognized. (Apparently your so-called tote monitoring is a far cry from the program I use to analyze money flow.)

The reason I find it so amusing is because you seem to have an obvious yearning to downplay all of the other selections I posted for the remaining 9 races. You’ve intentionally and completely ignored the results of picks posted for all the other races: Races BTW where I had no reason to make any later adjustments. Apparently you’re either not able to recognize the accumulated profit potential from those selections or you’re just simply envious of the fact that the program I use is light years ahead of whatever you’ve been using since Nixon was in office. That news BTW is not "bad" its actually hilarious! :lol:

Not that its of any importance to me, but there might be some out there who would certainly be curious enough to hear exactly what type of computer you were using between 1969 and 1974. And better yet! Why not provide a description of where in the world you were able to access and download the live tote data into your so-called computer?

[AltonKelsey]

We go back a long way as early adopters.


https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQzBaQfVR_9mLbpaCPaZ_vUNnNaN2ATp vRfvIm9GH1s1KumdLGj


PS Im sure your program is capable of spitting out the dutch in about 2 milliseconds.


Plenty of time to post the actual bet before the gates open.



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[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

This is the final race day for this meet. So, I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections from another VERY competitive card. In fact, it might be the categorized the most competitive of the entire meet.
On top of that the Jockey Title is coming down to the wire between Moreira and Purton. I’m sure their mounts will skew some of the betting as well.

It also looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with all 11 races on Turf:
(from top to bottom) -
(1)-Class1, (1)-Class2, (3)-Class3, (4)-Class4 & (2)Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but they generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)T…..2-13-14 W/ 12-10-9 ….….12:30 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Que]

Nitro... does your tote feed give you more than 3 digits on the projected Tierce payoffs?

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)T…..2-13-14 W/ 12-10-9 ….….12:30 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 13-14-8-5
Dutch Win, but passed with only a 36% margin
Quinella – $29.70 – some decent value
Top 3 all showed decent action, especially in the Quinella pool

[Nitro]

Nitro... does your tote feed give you more than 3 digits on the projected Tierce payoffs?

As far as I know the tote analysis I use only relies on the Win, Place and Quinella pools. I wish I could say I developed this analysis, but I can't take credit for the amazing work my mentor has accomplished.

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 4-5-11 W/ 1-2-3 …..…1:00 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Que]

The tote reader I cobbled together only reads the first three digits (max 999) on the Tierce, Trio, and First 4, but the Quartet goes to 5 digits.

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 4-5-11 W/ 1-2-3 …..…1:00 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 10-11-14-4
Dutch Loss, but passed with the late Scr of #5 (Moreira’s mount)
Quinella – Passed
Winner took all the late action after the scratch

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1800M C4 (9F)T…..2-8-5 W/ 12-4-6 .......1:30 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1800M C4 (9F)T…..2-8-5 W/ 12-4-6 .......1:30 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 7-3-13-10
Dutch Loss
Quinella – Loss
No action on the LS Winner

It looks like the recent heavy rains are going to have impact on the remaining races. So tread lightly!

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..5-1-3 W/ 6-12-13 …....2:00 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..5-1-3 W/ 6-12-13 …....2:00 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 13-3-1-9
Dutch Out
Quinella – 56.80 & Triple box - 795.00
Good late indicators on the LS Winner w/good action on the next 2.

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……3-8-1 W/ 11-10-2 …....2:30 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……3-8-1 W/ 11-10-2 …....2:30 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 9-13-2-3
Dutch Out – passed with only 46% margin
Quinella – Out
Some very late action on the LS Winner but no clues on the Big LS Placer

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....9-2-5 W/ 13-4-12 ……3:00 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....9-2-5 W/ 13-4-12 ……3:00 AM EST –

Results - 6-9-2-3
Dutch Out – passed with only 49% margin
Quinella – Out
LS Winner got pounded late @ 2 mins to post 20/1 to 14/1!

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1600M C3 (8F)T……....3-5-6 W/ 9-7-1 ......3:30 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #13 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1600M C3 (8F)T……....3-5-6 W/ 9-7-1 ......3:30 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #13 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 10-2-4-9
Dutch Out –
Quinella – Out
Another LS Winner that took a lot of the late money! 22/1 to 9.7/1
You’ve got to watch the board!

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1600M C1 (8F)T…..…8-1-3 W/ 7-5 ………4:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1600M C1 (8F)T…..…8-1-3 W/ 7-5 ………4:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-10-3-7
Dutch Win, but passed with only a 37% margin
Quinella – $39.30
Solid action on the favored Winner

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….….3-11-8 W/ 10-13-4 ….….4:40 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….….3-11-8 W/ 10-13-4 ….….4:40 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-13-2-7
Dutch Win with the best profit margin so far of 102%
Quinella – $23.90
Solid early action on the Winner

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1200M C3 (6F)T.......5-2-9 W/ 13-1-14 …….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1200M C3 (6F)T.......5-2-9 W/ 13-1-14 …….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 13-14-5-4
Dutch Out
Quinella – $15.40 & Triple box – 99.20
Top 3 finishers got solid play

[Nitro]

R#11 - 1400M C2 (7F)T.......7-2-4 W/ 9-12-1 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#11 - 1400M C2 (7F)T.......7-2-4 W/ 9-12-1 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-9-7-4
Dutch Out
Quinella – Out
Good late action on the LS Winner

Not a very good showing this morning, but I’m very pleased with the over all results of the entire meet.
Hong Kong re-opens on Sept 2nd.

[highnote]

Results - 8-9-7-4
Dutch Out
Quinella – Out
Good late action on the LS Winner

Not a very good showing this morning, but I’m very pleased with the over all results of the entire meet.
Hong Kong re-opens on Sept 2nd.

Nitro -- what kind of tote data do you use?

I only saw the pool totals and the odds on the HKJC website. I have never been able to find the win bet amounts on the individual horses.

Some U.S. based ADWs display the win pool bets on each horse. However, I noticed an error in the displayed data recently at one site.

I would feel more confident about the integrity of the data if I could get the pool data directly from HKJC.

[Nitro]

Nitro -- what kind of tote data do you use?

I only saw the pool totals and the odds on the HKJC website. I have never been able to find the win bet amounts on the individual horses.

Some U.S. based ADWs display the win pool bets on each horse. However, I noticed an error in the displayed data recently at one site.

I would feel more confident about the integrity of the data if I could get the pool data directly from HKJC.
I know what you mean! I’ve had pretty good success with the tote data posted on TVG. The data is used for analysis purposes only. Fortunately, I can pretty much tell by 10 minutes to post which are the potential betting candidates. The final selections are made by 4-5 mins to post. There are occasional glitches, so I rely solely on the actual HK odds (-1 point) to calculate my Dutch win bets.

I’ve also been informed that other ADWs may offer more stable feeds, but I’m letting my mentor (the tote analysis developer) investigate those options. He’s also developing a full blown statistical analysis for the entire meet (807 races). It will show the hit frequencies and their relationships to both the Classes, and Distances that are run with consideration for the racing surface. The goal for the future is to identify and utilize those race conditions demonstrating a greater hit frequency in order to allow for Dutch play below the current 50% profit margin criteria. It also should point out those conditions with less success and help to avoid playing those races even when the profit margin is very high (and sometimes very hard to pass up).
Passing a potentially losing bet in the Dutching game is just as important as a win when totaling the O.A. profit margin at the end of the day.