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Old 09-02-2017, 02:00 PM   #1
woodbinepmi
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2017-2018 HONG KONG

Hong Kong for September 3rd at Sha Tin. Inaugural race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees,cloudy with squally showers and thunder-storms.Wind: West 10 mph.
Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170903_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=1&meeting=101421

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 Yourthewonforme (5-2) Comes out of a slow race and is still winless after 32 races in Hong Kong.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

Horses that have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Seasons Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 Fairy Twins (3-1)
Race 8 Hang’s Decision( 6-1) andSolar Hei Hei( 7-1)
Race 10 Rattan( 10-1)



Last race watch list horse:
Race 9 Fifty Fifty (3-1) Drew the outside post in his initial race in Hong Kong, was rushed up into contention soon after the break. Was forced three wide in the turn uncovered, switched leads smoothly as soon as he straightened up in the stretch, dug down but was outrun by a neck versus a Size/Moreira odds on favourite winner. Now draws the two hole.


Key Play:
Race 3 Magic Legend (3-1) Threw his head up at the start forcing him to a little farther back than he likes, became rank on the backside soon afterwards. On the turn while racing three wide became unbalanced when a rival in front of him was forced to check up. Was eventually outclassed by Thewizordofoz in the stretch. May catch the high weight favourite Blizzard in here using this as a prep for a graded race down the road.

Longshots:
Race 5 Telecom Boom (9-1)
Race 7 Sunny Dragon ( 11-1)
Race 10 Club Life( 31-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases and general observations on the day.
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Old 09-03-2017, 12:29 PM   #2
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Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.
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Old 09-03-2017, 12:37 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.
When Kent was young in socal, 91-93 it was the same way, seemed like he would take speed and make them closers and the pace collapsed, closers on the lead with no pace and they would win. It was pretty amazing.
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Old 09-04-2017, 02:36 AM   #4
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Last edited by woodbinepmi; 09-04-2017 at 02:37 AM.
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Old 09-04-2017, 06:12 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6


Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
would you care to enlarge on the what and the how for the bit i have bolded?

your par (classes/speeds??) are relatively close to mine it appears.
i have more than one figure depending on the group for the stakes races
-----------ME DIFF
Class 1 107 93.5 13.5
Class 2 104 91 13
Class 3 100 86 14
Class 4 96 81 15
Class 5 92 77.5 14.5

the class 1 and 2 races tend to officially be scaled down more than the 3/4/5 which is probably why i underate them compared to you.

i reckon the track was 4 fast though!

all hypothetical for me as i don't study them these days, but i reckon race 1 and 3 are deservedly much faster than expected for that grade.
and i would not have adjusted any of the speeds for this meet.

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Old 09-04-2017, 11:01 PM   #6
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Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.
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Old 09-05-2017, 01:41 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.
Chris McCarron too...prolly too young to remember him riding Md.

Allan
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Old 09-05-2017, 03:19 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by betovernetcapper View Post
Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.
Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody!

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originally Posted by castaway01
However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on tote-board action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful.
Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter


INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.


BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.
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Old 09-05-2017, 04:24 PM   #9
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Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

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Old 09-05-2017, 05:36 PM   #10
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Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

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Old 09-05-2017, 05:49 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 View Post
Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause.
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Old 09-05-2017, 06:04 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause.


You're asking for it now.
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Old 09-05-2017, 07:52 PM   #13
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Hong Kong for September 6th at Happy Valley. Second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a chance of showers. Wind: SW 4 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15m PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170906_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221


Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 Bo Duke (13-1) Race *746 The 6th, 8th and 10th place runners have come back and won their next races.

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Planet Giant (7-1)
Race 4 Flying Monkey (4-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 Fine With Me (3-1) Was taken back after the start, became rank going into the 1st turn while racing on the rail. Moved to the 6 path in the stretch while being blocked, closed well on the outside but unable to reach the lone speed winner. You have to go back four races to find a number fast enough to win at this class though.

Race 4 Dr Race (4-1) Leaped out of the gate losing 2 lengths, settled 2 wide then moved to the middle of the track and closed well after getting on his proper lead, just missed out against a rival who had a much easier trip.

Race 6 Cheer Win (5-1) Drew the 11 hole going 6 furlongs at Happy Valley, was in a little tight running down the backside unable to get over was forced 3 wide in the turn uncovered, moved out a little wider in the lane and was just beaten a nose by the favourite who saved ground on the rail.

Key Play:
Race 6 Cheer Win (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 7 Kyrus Bowser (15-1)
Race 8 Perpetual Joyance(11-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:36 PM   #14
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You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause.
Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:06 PM   #15
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Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.
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