2017-2018 HONG KONG

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for September 3rd at Sha Tin. Inaugural race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees, cloudy with squally showers and thunder-storms. Wind: West 10 mph.
Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170903_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170903_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=1&meeting=101421 (https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=1&meeting=101421)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 :8: Yourthewonforme (5-2) Comes out of a slow race and is still winless after 32 races in Hong Kong.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

Horses that have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4:Seasons Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 :5: Fairy Twins (3-1)
Race 8 :2: Hang’s Decision ( 6-1) and :6: Solar Hei Hei ( 7-1)
Race 10 :11: Rattan ( 10-1)



Last race watch list horse:
Race 9 :6: Fifty Fifty (3-1) Drew the outside post in his initial race in Hong Kong, was rushed up into contention soon after the break. Was forced three wide in the turn uncovered, switched leads smoothly as soon as he straightened up in the stretch, dug down but was outrun by a neck versus a Size/Moreira odds on favourite winner. Now draws the two hole.


Key Play:
Race 3 :2: Magic Legend (3-1) Threw his head up at the start forcing him to a little farther back than he likes, became rank on the backside soon afterwards. On the turn while racing three wide became unbalanced when a rival in front of him was forced to check up. Was eventually outclassed by Thewizordofoz in the stretch. May catch the high weight favourite Blizzard in here using this as a prep for a graded race down the road.

Longshots:
Race 5 :11: Telecom Boom (9-1)
Race 7 :10: Sunny Dragon ( 11-1)
Race 10 :10: Club Life ( 31-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases and general observations on the day.

[cj]

Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

[GMB@BP]

Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

When Kent was young in socal, 91-93 it was the same way, seemed like he would take speed and make them closers and the pace collapsed, closers on the lead with no pace and they would win. It was pretty amazing.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[steveb]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

would you care to enlarge on the what and the how for the bit i have bolded?

your par (classes/speeds??) are relatively close to mine it appears.
i have more than one figure depending on the group for the stakes races
-----------ME DIFF
Class 1 107 93.5 13.5
Class 2 104 91 13
Class 3 100 86 14
Class 4 96 81 15
Class 5 92 77.5 14.5

the class 1 and 2 races tend to officially be scaled down more than the 3/4/5 which is probably why i underate them compared to you.

i reckon the track was 4 fast though!

all hypothetical for me as i don't study them these days, but i reckon race 1 and 3 are deservedly much faster than expected for that grade.
and i would not have adjusted any of the speeds for this meet.

[betovernetcapper]

Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the :3:
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.:)

[biggestal99]

Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

Chris McCarron too...prolly too young to remember him riding Md.

Allan

[Nitro]

Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the :3:
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.:)
Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody! :ThmbUp:

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.

However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on tote-board action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful. Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers.com/gamblers/horse-racing/william-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter

INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.

BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.

[Dahoss9698]

Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

:lol::lol::lol:

[Hong Kong Turf]

Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

[thaskalos]

Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

:lol::lol::lol:

You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

[Dahoss9698]

You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

:lol:

You're asking for it now.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for September 6th at Happy Valley. Second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a chance of showers. Wind: SW 4 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15m PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170906_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170906_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)


Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 :6: Bo Duke (13-1) Race *746 The 6th, 8th and 10th place runners have come back and won their next races.

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Planet Giant (7-1)
Race 4 :4: Flying Monkey (4-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :7: Fine With Me (3-1) Was taken back after the start, became rank going into the 1st turn while racing on the rail. Moved to the 6 path in the stretch while being blocked, closed well on the outside but unable to reach the lone speed winner. You have to go back four races to find a number fast enough to win at this class though.

Race 4 :8: Dr Race (4-1) Leaped out of the gate losing 2 lengths, settled 2 wide then moved to the middle of the track and closed well after getting on his proper lead, just missed out against a rival who had a much easier trip.

Race 6 :9: Cheer Win (5-1) Drew the 11 hole going 6 furlongs at Happy Valley, was in a little tight running down the backside unable to get over was forced 3 wide in the turn uncovered, moved out a little wider in the lane and was just beaten a nose by the favourite who saved ground on the rail.

Key Play:
Race 6 :9: Cheer Win (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 7 :3: Kyrus Bowser (15-1)
Race 8 :10: Perpetual Joyance(11-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[AltonKelsey]

You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

[kevb]

Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

[betovernetcapper]

Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

DITTO
I'm not sure I can make a commitment to get up at 5am for the Happy Valley races, given that I slept till noon today, but will be betting Sha Tin for sure. I'm sure I could set up the computer to sound an wake up bell when someone bet a lot on :3:. Maybe I could develop some kind of App for my smart phone. It could be called (Drum Roll) The Nitro Alarm.:)

Seriously thanks for the hard work.

[Hong Kong Turf]

As I mentioned before the Sha Tin card, the emphasis of my posts will be on analysis of Hong Kong horse racing, rather than on selections. I’ll analyze the races through the lens of Hong Kong Turf past performances, but the insights here should be valuable no matter how you choose to analyze Hong Kong.

The race of the week this week is Race 7 from Happy Valley, a fascinating, deep Class 3, with many live contenders who look like they could be ready to win.

The par Speed Figure for this class is 91, and most of the runners here have met or exceeded that number recently enough to be dangerous. This may be a race to circle as a key race for horses coming back next out against thinner fields.

Analysis of Top Contenders (in Program # Order)

#1 Unicorn had a nightmarish trip under a low % apprentice last out, losing a shoe in the process, but prior to that had been consistently cashing checks at this class and distance. The hard knocking type will be coming late and is a threat to win this on his day. Currently at 11-1, he offers some value.

#3 Kyrus Bowser is lightly raced and improving, and his first 3 speed figures suggest he belongs in this class. Despite finishing 7th, 5th, and 7th in his first 3 starts, he wasn’t really beaten by much. Today he cuts back from 2000M to 1650M. Optimists say that will have him finishing more strongly; pessimists will say this is a tune-up for next time going longer. Can’t fault the optimists at 14-1.

#5 Bank on Red is another lightly raced horse whose last races were better than they look at first glance. He has rallied belatedly but with sharp final 400M times of under 23 seconds each race, and has been well-backed both times out. He loses Moreira here – never a confidence booster – but as the only 3YO in the race, he still has time to put it all together for John Size. Improvement is expected, and he is another contender.

Thunder Stomp (#6) is the early favorite. The 6YO gelding finished 3rd 4 out 5 starts to end last season, and gets the big rider switch to Moreira. Wong, a low percentage apprentice may have taken Thunder Stomp out of his best game last out riding aggressively to the lead after a middling start. The trainer Tsui won 2 races on the opening card at Sha Tin and is capable of having one ready first out at the season. Still, the 6 minor finishes to the 1 win ratio is a bit concerning for a horse who always gets bet hard, and I’m not convinced this is the best spot to pay the Moreira premium. Let’s try to do better.

#8 Imperial Seal is a very interesting runner here based off trainer stats. He is coming off of a 4 win season (all in Class 4), and now moves up to Class 3 for the 1st start of the season for Casper Fownes – a tremendous angle for the trainer (Up in Class off a Win: 29% win %/49% ROI). Purton sticks, adding to the appeal. With all that said, Imperial Seal needs to continue his upward trajectory to threaten these, and is a bit light in the speed figure department. Currently at 6.0, the value may not be there for this “wise guy horse.”

#9 Kiram is tough to knock. He came off a long layoff to win moving up in class 2 races back, and then followed it up with a creditable enough 4th to close out the season. The trainer Ferraris is 2-for-72 with his first starters of the meet, but that’s about his overall average, and he had a horse run 2nd on opening day. He fits at the level and is another contender with Teetan up.

#10 High Volatility is a very interesting, speedy runner in this spot. 3 back, he ran the top speed figure in the field (104) running 2nd behind Victory Boy, but ended the season with a dreadful, wide trip from the 12 post in which he couldn’t get the lead. Draw a line through that non-effort and he has the look of a prime contender for Lui, who has some above average trainer angles for this spot. The bad news? He has to do it from the 11 post. The good news? He’s currently 20-1 and has the speed to clear.

#11 Go Go Win moves up in class off a wire-to-wire score under the “Poon Train” Matthew Poon. Hard to knock a horse who has been in the exacta 5 straight, but he’ll need to do a bit better here, and not convinced he can grab the lead again with High Volatility in the race. Currently at 10-1, I might demand a bit more value before pulling the trigger.

Who do you like?

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

Been away for awhile
Did he really post a $2k loss :D:D:headbanger:

Link pls for the love of Christ

[steveb]

Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

race 4 was only about 3 points slow imo.
it was about 22 slower than race 1 however.
NO manual adjustment, as i want mine to be speed and nothing else.
pace would be handled separately, but that said it's rare for the pace to be very fast or very slow.
too many top riders there ensuring that others don't get away with murder.

race 10 was the only one that went too fast i think, where the leaders got the stitch.
r6 to a lesser extent.
in those cases the one that pace the race best invariably win.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[steveb]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

my computers' opinion of the speeds.....

and go the tigers!!

[woodbinepmi]

Yes the 2nd was very slow, most likely due to the slow early pace. Track went slow in the middle of the card then quickened up a little for the last 3. As you know it will do the at the Valley at night.

It was real hard getting up this morning at 4.30 to watch the Tigers but well worth it. Played fantastic defence in the 4th quarter.

YELLOW AND BLACK!!!!!!

Thinking real hard about buying a plane ticket IF (don't want to jinx it) they make the Grand Final. Have been waiting 35 LONG years.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for September 10th at Sha Tin. Third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 40 % chance of showers. Wind: SSW 10 mph
Post time: 12.35am ET, 9.35m PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170910_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170910_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 11 Seven Luck (7-2) Is most likely the chalk because of Moreira, has yet to run in the money in his 12 race career and draws the outside post in the 1,000 metre sprint.

Race 4 11 Furious Pegasus (7-2) Draws the 13 hole in a Class 5 race which usually means doom. Has still not finished in the money in 20 races, there are others in here that have run much faster than him at better odds.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 2 Industrialist Way (8-1)
Race 4 2 Good Method (5-1)
Race 5 8 The Full Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 8 Solar Hei Hei (8-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 5 2 Silverfield (4-1) Was able to save ground on the turn but was blocked while looking for room in the stretch, extended himself well when given room only to miss by a half-length at the wire. Galloped out past the winner after the finish.

Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1) Broke a length slow then clipped heals , rushed up into contention soon afterward to settle in a few lengths back, tired late but should like to go a little longer.

Race 7 3 Winner’s Way (2-1) Became very rank entering the turn while racing 2 wide in the turn forced his way out early in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Thewizardofoz.

Race 7 6 Jolly Banner (13-1) Got the luck of the draw by getting the rail, saved ground but when ready to run was blocked with nowhere to go in the stretch. Closed well by weaving thru when able to find some room, but outclassed by the eventual winner.

Race 10 11 Pakistan Baby (6-1) Raced a little closer than normal, was in tight on the turn. Whyte had a strangle hold of him in the stretch while searching for room, finished well in tight room galloped out past the winner after the wire.

Key Play:
Race 9 2 Pingwu Spark (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 3 Unique Happiest (18-1)
Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1)
Race 10 4 Joyful Moments (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[Hong Kong Turf]

Today’s Race of the Day from Sha Tin is the featured 7th Race: the Class 1 Kwantung Handicap Cup over 1400M. It’s a solid field top-to-bottom, with a couple who are running back quickly on 1 week’s rest. In the early betting, Winner’s Way and Magic Legend are taking most of the action – let’s see if there’s anyone else in here that can create some value for us.

#1 Horse of Fortune – A hard knocking 7 year old with 6 wins never gets much help from his handicap, but has proven his ability to carry an impost and beat some of the best horses in Hong Kong. He disappointed on closing day in Sha Tin, but prior to that, took a Grade 3 and finished a good 2nd with a 102 speed figure in a class 1. From a trainer statistics perspective, the outlook isn’t great with Millard low percentage off this kind of layoff and in the first start of the season. Still, on his day, he has a shot in the 15-1 to 20-1 range

#2 Romantic Touch – Moreira takes the mount, so we have to take notice. He mixed it up with the very best in Hong Kong last season, but didn’t come away with any wins, and is still just 2 for 36 lifetime. It seems fair to wonder if he might be tailing off a bit at 7 years old, but he does have the tactical speed to be well placed for Moreira. Tony Cruz’s trainer stats are fair for this spot, but it doesn’t quite look like his best race is good enough to beat the top choices in here, and with the Moreira premium, he feels like an underlay.

#3 Winner’s Way – The current favorite put things together late in the season, and progressed from Class 3 to Class 1 by the end of the season. He dominated a Class 2, then went wire to wire again for a Class 1. On June 25th, only a freak performance by The Wizard of Oz prevented him from scoring his first stakes race. In terms of speed figures, he is the rare Hong Kong horse who can bang out triple digit figures, and may find a comfortable lead for Purton. As mentioned for Romantic Touch, Cruz can get them ready early in the meet. Rock solid and deserving favorite.

#4 Magic Legend – The 2nd choice in the betting ran a great race one week ago for John Moore and Tommy Berry. Though he was 4th, the early indications are that that race was live (2nd place finisher Blizzard is off to Japan to compete in a G1). As a southern hemisphere 4 year old, he may be improving and peaking for this. 2-back, he was a half-length behind Winner’s Way at this class and distance, but picks up 7 pounds against that effort. Then there is this stat: when starting a horse on less than 10 days rest, John Moore is 6-for-24, with a 102% flat bet ROI. If he improves at all on last week’s start, he’s a bi danger and would be no surprise.

#5 Marvel Hero – Try this: cross out this runner’s last start, where he went 2200 and faltered in the stretch: it wouldn’t be difficult to make a case for him being a rapidly improving late bloomer. 2 back, he absolutely destroyed a Class 1 field (albeit with a light weight) and earned a 106 speed figure, which would probably be good enough for this. With that said, he likely wants more ground than he’ll get here, and Casper Fownes using the low % apprentice adds to the perception that this may be a prep for something longer next out. Still, he’ll be 25-1 or longer, and it seems like a mistake to toss him completely.

#6 Jolly Banner – Here’s another hard knocking contender who enters this off of a nice campaign last season. He also exits the 6/25 Grade 3, and while he ran behind Winners’ Way and Magic Legend that day, he had a bit of trouble in the stretch and wasn’t beaten by much. He’s fairly lightly raced for a 6YO, and could be figuring things out. He may a shade behind the top 2, but has a favorable weight assignment and rates a genuine upset glance.

#7 Supreme Profit – Currently the longest shot on the board, this 7 year old won a grade 3 last season and is a 9 time winner in Hong Kong. After the G3 win in February, the form took a turn for the worse, however, with declining speed figures and series on non-competitive finishers. Add to that that this race looks well below his preferred, and he has the look of an outsider.

#8 Solar Hei Hei – The popular runner steps up from Class 2 for this and picks up hot apprentice Matthew Poon and so will carry just 106 pounds. You don’t win 7 of 27 by accident, and there are a few speed figures on the page that would be competitive in this, but this does seem like a stretch on his overall class. He ran a solid 2nd in a class 2 just a week ago, but these are much tougher. Even with the feather weight tonight, he looks in over his head.

Who do you like?

[betovernetcapper]

After race 2, I am planning on visiting a Voodoo Preacher Sunday & buying a J Moreira doll and about 100 pins. :)

[woodbinepmi]

Send me the bill!

[betovernetcapper]

LOL after the :8:won I'm just buying 50 pins :)

[kevb]

Wishing a good journey to Woodbine's two HTW horses

[betovernetcapper]

Lost 1st two to Moreira, won the 3rd, & lost the 4th to #13 who was completely under my radar. At that point the Valium started to kick in & I made a big win bet on Woodpine's key pick 2 Pingwu Spark in the 9th & went to bed.

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20170910&no=09&lang=eng

Given the results, I don't feel right sending the bill for the J Moreira Voodoo doll & 50 pins to Woodpine. I should make a religious donation every 1/2 century or so & this is it. :)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[Gamblor]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Top analysis, thanks very much. Question - what are your speed figure adjustments? Is how many pounds you think it takes to impact 1L at each distance?

[woodbinepmi]

Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for September 13th at Happy Valley. Fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 50 % chance of showers. Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170913_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170913_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 :5: Dr Listening (3-1) Is running for a new barn since leaving John Size. Is a very consistent racer but going up from Class 3 to Class 2 is a nice jump in class and drawing the 11 hole in the short run to the first turn may be little tough for his first time against a tough Class 2 field.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :5: Emperor Victory (13-1)
Race 5 :5: Sparkling Sword (15-1)
Race 6 :5: Ten Flames (12-1)
Race 7 :2: Extremely Fun (30-1)
Race 7 :4: Back In Black (16-1)
Race 7 :11: Bold Elegance (22-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :1: Smart Boy (3-1) Raced in the rear moved from the 2 path to the 3 path half-way thru the turn, was blocked by three runners in front of him early in the stretch, moved to the outside and closed well but move was started when the winner was finding room near the rail.

Race 7 :6: Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Race 8 :2: Doyeni (8-1) Broke well on the rail, settled in behind the first flight, was asked at the 600 metre mark but was forced down back to the rail entering the stretch while looking for room. Looked hesitant to go thru with a whip being used right in front of his face. Closed well when able to find room.

Key Play:
Race 8 :2: Doyeni (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :4: The Show (13-1)
Race 4 :2: Iron Boy (10-1)
Race 6 :9: Magnetism (5-1)
Race 7 :1: Breeders’ Star (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[Hong Kong Turf]

#2 Doyeni must have been the best horse in Hong Kong not to win a race last season. While he mustered only a 3rd place from 4 starts, he was flying late in every start, missing by a length or less against top milers Booming Delight and Eastern Express on 2 separate occasions. He has shown the ability to consistently eclipse a triple digit speed figure, even under a significant impost as he’ll deal with today (under 128 pounds, he is the effective high weight after #1 Packing Dragon drops 7 pounds under apprentice Matthew Poon). In his only performance last season in which earned below a 99 speed figure, his jockey, Kei Chiong earned a suspension for questionable riding tactics in the stretch.

On the downside, he will need to win from barrier #10, and jockey Douglas Whyte has yet to hit the board this season. The idea is that he will be able to get over and settle without losing too much ground before uncorking a huge rally. With a reasonable run he should inhale these in the straight. Currently at odds of 9.1, he’s a terrific bet at a big price.

[Gamblor]

Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.


Yeah but I mean the table you list in your posts with adjustments for each distance, to what does it refer?

[Gamblor]

My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7
R5 think #11 is big overs, and the 10 for that matter, 11-10-1-2-3
R6 I'm drawn to Magnetism, will be backing it, 9-2-1-10-4
R7 too tough 6-11-5-12-10
R8 I'll be asleep by this time too tough anyway 10-6-11-5-9

[Gamblor]

My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1


2 wins from 9, quinella pays 40/1. :jump::p:ThmbUp::):pound::rant::coffee::headbanger :

Did I say the race was too tough? I meant too easy!! :headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::jump:

[Gamblor]

My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1 - 2,9 quinella 40/1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11 11 dead heats for first at 40/1
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7 E-super bolts in

Gee... this game isn't too hard, is it? Why's there so many threads on here about this and that, millions of discussions about speed figures and blah blah blah, don't worry about that garbage, just follow the Gamblor mail!!

[Gamblor]

R5 sends me back to earth with a thud.

Magnetism has drawn out all the money in my account, to have on it the win. Come on!! :headbanger::bang::headbanger:

[kevb]

Good pickin' Gamblor. You and Poon are hot tonight.

[kevb]

Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!

[kevb]

Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!

He finished last at 15-1

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Mid-pack
Key Races: *747, *763, *767, *807, 15
Notes for the day: Big day for bug boy Poon with 4 wins, not so much for Moreria who is held scoreless.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #3 London City – Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the runner (eventual winner) under him came off the rail looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short to the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 3 #8 Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Race 6 #9 Magnetism – Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Good Companion – Had to really dig down to get up with a weight break from the hot apprentice jock while beating a very average Class 4 field in an average time, has to move up now to Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (029): 98#
2nd (030): 96
3rd (031): +93
4th (032): 99
5th (033): -98
6th (034): -100
7th (035): 100
8th (036): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I. Hong Kong will be racing Saturday this week instead of their normal Sunday race card.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor September 15th at Sha Tin. Fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 92 Degrees partly clouds. Wind: WNW 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170916_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 3 Good Method (3-1) Has only 1 win out of 40 lifetime races, has a tendency to run second and third.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1) Race 15 the third and fourth place runners have come back and won.
Race 2 London Master (13-1) Comes out of the same race as #4 Fish N’ Chips.
Race 4 4 Foxbat (7-1) Race *773 The third and seventh place won next out.
Race 6 4 Winaswewish (49-1) Also comes out of race 15.
Race 8 1 Turf Sprint (5-1) Race *807 The third and sixth place runners won while the winner came back and ran second next time out.



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1)
Race 4 2 Ambitious Speedy (8-1)
Race 5 7 Good Fit (8-1)
Race 6 5 The Full Bloom (17-1)
Race 9 9 Master Viking (15-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 1 Best Tango (12-1) Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 5 8 Sure Peace (8-1) Broke a length slow the was asked but Teetan had no response, moved to the three path on the backside while racing in the back of the field moved out to the 6 path entering the stretch did finish well but never a challenge for the easy winner.

Race 8 11 Travel Emperor (6-1) Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 10 6 Winston’s Lad (7-1) Broke well but had to be taken up soon after, moved to three wide entering the stretch had to keep moving further outside for room to run started really getting at it the last 150 metres and just missed out by a length… Should like the added distance here and the draw closer to the rail.

Key Play:
Race 9 11 Top Beautiful (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 7 Empire Star (22-1)
Race 9 6 Ace King (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[Hong Kong Turf]

Here is tonight's analysis of Race 1 from Sha Tin.

Race 1 is a 1200M Class 4. The field looks top heavy, but may have a vulnerable favorite and perhaps some live longshots to spice up the exotics.

#1 Mordicus brings a lot of speed to the table, and earned the top speed figure in the field in the Sha Tin finale over the same class and distance. He was overhauled in that one, finishing 6th, but was only beaten less than 3 lengths, in a race in which the winner was 2 lengths clear. Throw out the race 2 back, when he was taken out of his game with a slow break. As the high weight once again, he has a positive “bet-on” angle, switching from Kei Chiong to Zac Purton, who is overdue to get going. Solid today, and could be tough to catch in the opener as the 2nd choice.

#2 None Other has some similar form to Mordicus. While Mordicus probably is faster from the gate, None Other also has a the speed to be competitive early, and from the 1 hole is liable to gun for it early. He was 2nd last out, but earned a much slower speed figure than Mordicus (72 vs. 88), and the last several figures of last season were all below par for the level. That said, he gets the biggest jockey change in the business, going from the low percentage Jack Wong to the dominant Joao Moreira. Dangerous, but overbet as the chalk.

#3 My Honey, #4 The Legend, and #5 Lightning Missile have all been non-competitive while ice cold on the board in their 1st/2nd starts, and none look competitive today.

#6 Money Winner is worth a look underneath at a big price in this spot. While the form isn’t much on the surface, he earned respectable speed figures in his first two starts (77 and 79), before encountering significant trouble last out. The trainer Tsui is off to a blistering start, although Douglas Whyte, a former champion rider in Hong Kong is still seeking his first winner. He’ll be flying late, and shouldn’t be written off.

#7 Indigenous Star is another long one in here who is at least a little bit interesting underneath. He figures to picking up some pieces late, and the relatively lightly raced 4 year old had improving form at the end of last season, finishing up with a sub 23 second final quarter to finish 4th last out. Gets in at 116 pounds with Leung up, and is a tad interesting.

#8 Joyful Forever would be a surprise in here, as he hasn’t made much of an impression in 4 lifetime starts. Appears destined for Class 5.

#9 Rewarding Flyer is a contender for Moore and Berry. A 2-time winner last season, he took a Class 5 wire-to-wire 3 back, and then had a nice finish on opening day at Sha Tin this season to finish 2nd. If he is able to build on that performance at all (and avoid a wide trip), he may be well positioned to run down the #1 and #2 in the lane. Value at 3rd choice.

# 10 Victor Emperor is at least a little interesting here, as he makes his 2nd start off the long layoff. In the spring he ran a few races that would be good enough to take this, including a Class 5 score. He was injured in April after taking a ton of money, and then jogged behind the field in the comebacker on opening day. He’ll be a big price, and if he can regain his fitness, isn’t impossible.

[Gamblor]

My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7

[ronsmac]

No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?

[Parkview_Pirate]

No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?

No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).

[fellowmen]

My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7

wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night

[Gamblor]

wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night

The magic tea leaves know...

[ronsmac]

No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.

[fellowmen]

It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.
is is possible to bet directly into their pools using a foreign website so we can get in on their monster pools? like the triple trio or the six up or the Hong Kong jockey clubs site

[lansdale]

Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody! :ThmbUp:

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.
Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers.com/gamblers/horse-racing/william-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter

INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.

BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.

Since it sounds as though you're using a tote-watching system, I don't understand why you're citing Benter's method as proof that yours works. This isn't what he was doing at all. You make it sound as though he wasn't using a 'fundamental model', as he describes it (or, making your own line, as the average handicapper would describe it) because it would be too difficult. In fact, this is exactly what he did. And his 'fundamental model' was more powerful than the 'public model' -- it made a small profit. But it became much more powerful after he combined it with the 'public model' -- aka 'the odds' -- in the areas where the 'public model' was stronger. This is what you summarize in the last two sentences of your post. But, he wasn't doing this on a race-by-race basis, as you imply -- this model-combination was the result of an analysis of thousands of races. So, as with anyone who makes a line, he knew the odds he (or really his runners) was looking for before the race -- he wasn't watching tote movement.

Also, re tote action itself -- I've never seen a serious study that didn't describe pre-race price movement as random. And in this age of improved computer power, it certainly is one of the easiest things to track.

Cheers,

lansdale

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *771 (3 winners and a second), 009

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 (040) :12: Laughing Lord: Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 10 (046) :14: Such A Happiness: Was bet down as the 7-2 favourite after moving up in class after a nice win, drew the rail in a full 14 horse field, raced mid-pack while saving ground, was full of run entering the stretch but was boxed in with no exit plan available, tried to avoid the tiring front runner but was bumped multiple times by Winston’s Lad.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (041): :7: Good Fit: Was a quick pull up soon after the race.

Race 2 (044) :2: Marvel Tribe: Was all out in the stretch while defeating a rival who never got back to his proper lead step, picked up 6 points so he’ll be forced up to Class 4 next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (037): 98
2nd (038): 92
3rd (039): +94
4th (040): +92
5th (041): -94
6th (042): -93
7th (043): 109 ?
8th (044): 102
9th (045): 100
10th (046): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor September 20th at Happy Valley. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 Degrees, Mostly cloudy this evening. Wind: E 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170920_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170920_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 :3: Sweet Bean (3-1) Draws a bad post and his last few races haven’t been very much to brag about, if it wasn’t for Moreira he would be 20-1 and not the chalk.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *746 (3rd, 6th, 8th and 10th have won their next races):
Race 4 :6: King Winsa (6-1) and :11: Scarborough Fair (31-1), Race 6 :5: Casa Master (13-1).

Race *747 (5th and 7th won while 3rd ran second):
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Race 015 (3rd, 4th and 10th won next out):
Race 1 :11: Forever Fun (74-1), Race 5 :2: Phantom Falcon (7-2) and :4: Formula Galore (8-1).



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: King of Mongolia (17-1)
Race 4 :7: Smart Union (3-1)
Race 6 :4: Wah May Baby (10-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :4: Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Key Play:
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Goal For Gold (12-1)
Race 3 :9: Loyal Craftsman (14-1)
Race 7 :11: Charity Glory (10-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 009

Notes for the day: Tracked started out very fast for the first 5 races with a clunker in there for the fourth, number came back everyone running around 8 points slow, the fig was adjusted +5 after closer inspection. Track slowed down compared to the earlier races but still a little faster than par. The 3rd race was a grade lower than normal even for a Class 5 event

Horse to watch for list:

Race 050 #7 Smart Union: Was bet down to 7-2 after being away since May, broke well and was taken back looking for room to get near the rail but was unable to being forced out 3 wide in the first turn. Still being taken further back looking for room entering the backside, while this was going on the eventual winner was galloping along on an easy lead setting a very leisurely pace, moved to the three path on the turn for home and carried further out entering the stretch, started making up ground while racing all over the track, just missed out by less than an length.

Race 052 #8 Speedy Wally: Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 053 #1 Fantastic Feeling: Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire. Didn’t pick up any rating points so will be able to stay in Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 048 #4 Sharp Sailor: Had to the move to the 5 path in the turn and Nash had to get to his bottom in the stretch, picks up 7 points so will most likely be carrying 132 pounds in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (047): +98
2nd (048): 102
3rd (049): +88
4th (050): -93#
5th (051): 96
6th (052): 95
7th (053): 102
8th (054): 103


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[kevb]

Thanks

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees, 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind: E 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170924_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170924_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 :4: Smiling Glory (4-1) Draws the 11 hole and last couple races on the dirt have nothing to write home about. Even with the Brazilian on don’t care too much for horses that don’t like to win

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *720: The 2nd and 9th won next out while the winner and 10th place runners ran second:
Race 7 :5: Malmsteen (29-1)

Race *773: 3rd and 7th came back and won:
Race 6 :5: Regency Darling (22-1)

Race 009: the 3rd and 5th won with the 4th place finisher came in 2nd in his next race:
Race 7 :9: Easy Touch (34-1)
Race 9 :3: Chung Wah Spirit (5-1)
Race 9 :10: Diamond King (25-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Industrialist Way (3-1)
Race 7 :7: Right Call (17-1)
Race 10 :2: Hang’s Decision (13-1)
Race 10 :4: Soalr Hei Hei (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :11: Multigogo (4-1) Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 10 :12: Citron Spirit (8-1) Broke extremely badly in a Class 3 event spotting the field at least 5 lengths till he straightened up, saved ground on the turn moved to the four path in the stretch and closed well but never able to get to the easy winner, galloped out well.

Key Play:
Race 9 :11: Household King (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :2: Great Toplight (11-1)
Race 4 :12: Snowhooves (10-1)
Race 5 :11: Unique Joyful (24-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Guy (16-1)
Race 9 :5: Regency Bo Bo (10-1)
Race 10 :4: Solar Hei Hei (13-1)

Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[Parkview_Pirate]

It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.

Same for me now as well, at least at Twinspires and Xpressbet. Sometime in the last year or so, at least one of them or TVG also carried a double wager, but apparently no longer.

[AltonKelsey]

No idea why they stopped carrying doubles. Makes no sense

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 24, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Closers
Key Races: none

Notes for the day: Field and final time for Race 6 (060) came back very weak, the three first timers in Hong Kong from Race 7 (061) didn’t show as much as they were talked up to be. Race 8 (062) came back very fast for a Class 3 event on the dirt.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 058 #7 Yourthewonforme: Leaped out of the gate costing him at least a couple lengths of running position, but worse all was stuck in the rear of a full field. Raced on the rail full of run in the fourth flight, but was all caught up in the wash in the stretch never being able to properly extend his legs.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 (058) #8 Winning Vibe: Nash had to get to his bottom after having break from the 12 gate in a very slow final time for a Class 5 event.

Race 8 (062) #1 Winning Vangough: Was allowed to set a leisurely pace, looked a winner half-way thru the stretch but was run down near the wire, he never got to his proper lead foot and was a very quick pull up after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (055): -95
2nd (056): 92
3rd (057): 98
4th (058): 89
5th (059): 100
6th (060): 90
7th (061): 101
8th (062): 105
9th (063): +102
10th (064): -99?

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor at Happy Valley. Eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 82 degrees with clear skies. Wind: none

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good to Firm

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170927_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170927_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race :7: Haymaker (7-2): Is 1 for 27 lifetime and has the wrong running style for the ‘C+3’ course at Happy Valley.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *771 (8th, 12th and 13th place runners won next out with the 6th place finisher ran second):
Race 4 :9: Happy Friendship (21-1)
Race 005 (9th and 6th place finishers won):
Race 2 :6: Gold Talent (10-1)
Race 009 (2nd, 3rd and 5th have won with the 4th and 7th finished second):
Race 8 :6: So Fast (15-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding) their speed figure on the off track :
Race 3 :5: The Full Bloom (9-1) 100
Race 3 :6: Wah May Baby (11-1) 101
Race 7 :1: Goodheart Success (34-1) 103
Race 7 :6: Green Energy (9-1) 102
Race 8 :11: Master Viking (19-1) N/A

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :9: Fine With Me (7-1) Race *762
Race 4 :1: Victory Follow Me (9-1) Race *782


Key Play:
Race 8 :8: Best Step (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :2: Generous Bobo (11-1)
Race 5 :2: Dr Race (10-1)
Race 5 :10: Junzi (12-1)
Race 7 :6: Green Energy (10-1)
Race 8 :7: Happy Bao Bei (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[kevb]

Thanks

[kevb]

R4:
Happy trails to woodbine key horse #9 Happy Friendship at 45-1

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 27, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *792, 029

Notes for the day: Race 2 (066) Even for a Class 5 race it looks to be a level below par, as does race 4 (068). Very impressive win by Starlight in race and Race 7 (071) looks like it has a possibility of becoming a key race very soon.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (066) #2 Show Mission: Had been away since last March, picked up Moreira for the mount and of course was bet down to 4-1, broke well and was pushed up into good position along the rail, settled in 2 lengths off the front runner who eventually finished fourth beaten by ¾ of a length. Scooted in on the rail entering the stretch and looked like he may pull it off at the 150 metre mark but was just a little short, most likely from the long layoff. Hopefully, he draws another weak field and keeps Moreira for the mount.

Race 4 (068) #1 Victory Follow Me: Was very unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 post with the short run to the first turn. Leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths, Purton took full advantage of a bad situation and took him straight to the rail while taking a running position in the rear of the field. Then had to take up slightly in the turn, then was seriously checked entering the backstretch. Moved out to the 5 path in the stretch looking for room but had to jostle up slightly when a tiring runner got into his path, closed well afterward. Doesn’t pick up any rating points so will be allowed to run again in Class 5.

Race 6 (070) #11 Starlight: Is really in form at the moment, got a PERFECT trip in here with 2 dueling on the lead with 2 more in front of him and Starlight running along with no company around him. Drew to the leaders entering the stretch and drew away with all the ease in the world with Purton never even hitting him with the stick. Picks up 9 rating points which will keep him in Class 3 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 8 #8 Best Step: Got lucky and drew the rail in his first start since June, broke well which sometimes can be challenging for him. Dueled on the rail, then had to really dig down to hold on in the stretch with Purton hitting him 18 times. The two he was fighting with both galloped out past him after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (065): +98
2nd (066): -90
3rd (067): -94
4th (068): 93
5th (069): 93
6th (070): +101
7th (071): 105
8th (072): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. October 1st, Ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees with 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good to Yielding

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171001_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171001_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 9 :12: Relentless Me (3-1) Drew the 10 hole in a tough Class 3 race, there are others in here that have run must faster than him and the race he won last out came back very slow for even a Class 4 race. 3-1 no thanks.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *773 (3rd and 7th place runners won next out):
Race 1 :8: Flying Noble (2-1)
Race *666 (5th and 9th won while the 2nd place finisher ran second again):
Race 1 :9: Grade One (6-1)
Race *790 (2nd and 7th won):
Race 4 :9: Eastern Prowess (16-1)
Race 029 (winner and runner up have already came back and won while the 5th place finisher ran second):
Race 1 :7: Paddington (18-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding) with their speed figure on the off track :
Race 2 :7: Ho Ho Feel (6-1) 102
Race 4 :1: A Beautiful (9-5) 99
Race 6 :8: Starship (6-1) 93
Race 7 :6: Dashing Fellow (29-1) 105
Race 8 :4: Seasons Bloom (2-1) 105
Race 9 :1: Calculation (15-1) 100
Race 10 :2: Shamal (12-1) 104
Race 10 :10: Jumbo Luck (8-1) 107

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :4: Gorgeous King (7-2) – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch and was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Race 2 :5: Gorgeous Again (3-1) – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start moved to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire.

Race 9 :7: Daring Fit (8-1) – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing near the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :6: Winner’s Way (10-1) Race *757
Race 10 :3: House Of Fun (15-1) Race *742

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Gorgeous Again (3-1)
Race 9 :7: Darling Fit (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :3: None Other (17-1)
Race 2 :1: Jolly Gene (14-1)
Race 4 :9: Eastern Prowess (17-1)
Race 8 :6: Winner’s Way (10-1)
Race 10 :3: House Of Fun (15-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[proximity]

good call there with dashing fellow. it seemed to be raining pretty hard?

[fellowmen]

No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).

I was looking at the results at DRF for Sha Tin and they had a pic6 result that paid $264,000. Can you bet the pic6 through their site?

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *756, *757, *801, 010, 023 and 027

Notes for the day:
Track started fast until the rains came, then it went very slow and then gradually got a little quicker as the day went on. Race 4 (076) came back a little slow and for a Class 4 race and a little weak for Sha Tin. The first GIII (079) was won by a runner who looks to prefer the softer going, a throw out for most of the classier runners in there. Nice race for the top 2 finishers in the last (082).

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (074) #5 Gorgeous Again: Was on the watch list from his last race, broke well and was in a good position on the backside and the turn while saving ground on the rail. When straightened up for the run home the good position turned into a detriment being stuck behind a wall of three, when he moved closer to the rail the one directly in front him also drifted in, while this was going on the eventual winner was making his winning move. Purton wrapped up on him after he realized it was a done deal.

Race 3 (075) #2 Star Of Patch: Had been away since last January, was able to get the services of Purton and was bet down to 5-2, raced at the tail of the field 2 wide in the turn chasing a very slow early pace. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch full of run and looked to be a winner at the 200 metre mark, but was probably just a little short after the lengthy rest, just being outrun near the wire.

Race 6 (078) #14 Call Me Awesome: In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. Hopefully, he will pop up back at his preferred Happy Valley.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (077) Win For Charity: Sat right off a quick pace set while the rain was really coming down, was able to scoot thru on the rail and out finished the favourite to the wire with a 12 pound allowance that was gaining on him nearing the line and out galloped him easily after the wire.

Race 6 (079) Dashing Fellow: Sat in a perfect striking position with some nice horses coming off of lengthy rest fighting it out on the front end, moved to the outside and picked up the pieces late. Is 2 for 2 now on the off tracks, going to play against him next out as long as it doesn’t come up wet.

Speed Figures:
1st (073): 96
2nd (074): 100
3rd (075): -97
4th (076): -95
5th (077): +95
6th (078): 102
7th (079): 109
8th (080): 110
9th (081): 98
10th (082): 106

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for at Happy Valley. Tenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 degrees with Partly Cloudy Wind: ENE mph. 10 to 15

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171005_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171005_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 :6: Nassa (7-2): Has been away since May when he sustained a left radius stress fracture, even though he’s coming out of a key race will try and beat him in here.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race 029: (The first two runners won next out with the 5th place finisher ran second)
Race 2 :3: Never Better (6-1)

Race *764: (the 3rd and 4th place finishers won)
Race 4 :4: Planet Star (9-1)

Race *747: (5th and 7th win while the 3rd place was a runner up)
Race 5 :8: Navas (17-1)

Race *705: (3rd and 6th won with the 2nd and 8th finished second)
Race 7 :8: Keep Moving (6-1)

Race *670 (three horses won next out: the 2nd, 4th and 6th)
Race 8 :6: Nassa (7-2)

Race *767 (The winner and 6th won with the 9th running a good second)
Race 8 :10: Chater Legend (14-1)
Race 8 :12: Super Chic (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :1: Unique Happiest (7-1)
Race 3 :3: Happy And Healthy (12-1)
Race 5 :4: Back In Black (9-1)
Race 7 :7: Mr Right (10-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :1: Victory Follow Me (5-1): Was very unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 post with the short run to the first turn. Leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths, Purton took full advantage of a bad situation and took him straight to the rail while taking a running position in the rear of the field. Then had to take up slightly in the turn, then was seriously checked entering the backstretch. Moved out to the 5 path in the stretch looking for room but was jostled up slightly when a tiring runner got into his path, closed well afterward.

Race :2: London City (14-1): Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the winner under him came off the rail, he looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short while the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 6 :12: The Sylph (5-1): Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 8 :5: Dinozzo (9-1): Leaped out of the gate then settled on the rail in the first turn racing mid-pack, moved into contention but was herded down on the rail then moved out to the 3 path but was never able to find any room to run. Moreira wrapped up on him in the last 50 metres while still only finishing less than 2 lengths back.


Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :3: Doyeni (9-1) Race *787

Key Play:
Race 8 :5: Dinozzo (9-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Gold Velvet (16-1)
Race 2 :2: London City (11-1)
Race 3 :9: King Winsa (14-1)
Race 5 :3: General Iron (14-1)
Race 6 :2: Thunder Stomp (11-1)
Race 7 :10: Racing Mate (14-1)
Race 8 :2: Packing Dragon (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 5, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Good Rail
Key Races: 031 and 038

Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 (090) #6 Nassa: Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (087) #5 Jumbo Happiness: Raced on the best part of the track and was just able to hold off Mr Picasso who had a very tough trip in a slow race for a Class 3 event.

Race 7 (089) #8 Keep Moving: Saved ground on a night that it looked like the best place to be, clipped heals at the top of the lane and was still able to get up for the win, but was all out to hold off a closing E-Super.

Speed Figures:
1st (083): +90
2nd (084): -96
3rd (085): 96
4th (086): 100
5th (087): -95
6th (088): 102
7th (089): 102
8th (090): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Eleventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 88 degrees partly cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171008_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171008_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :1: Real Deal (4-1) Even though he is taking a drop in class he had showed absolutely nothing lately in Class 4, his speed figures are nowhere close to par even for this class, will bet all day long against types like these at 4-1.

Race 8 :3: Fantastic Eight (5-2) Was all out in his last race after getting an easy lead, never got to his proper lead foot in the stretch, and should have company on the front end today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *670 (2nd, 4th, & 6th won 12th ran second)
Race 6 :1: Beauty Way (12-1)

Race 010 (3rd and 7th won)
Race 6 :6: Rattan (5-1)

Race *650 (1st and 7th won with the 6th place runner finished second)
Race 7 :2: Top Ace (6-1)

Race 027 (1st and 3rd won)
Race 8 :8: Mythical Emperor (9-2)

Race *807 (3rd and 6th won, winner ran second)
Race 10 :8: Big Bang Bong (11-1)

Race 009 (2nd, 3rd and 5th won with the 4th and 7th place finishers ran second)
Race 10 :13: Fifty Fifty (5-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Look Eras (6-1)
Race 6 :6: Rattan (5-1)


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :5: Fun Manager (7-2) Race 031
Race 3 :12: Multigood (3-1) Race 001
Race 7 :9: Sure Peace (13-1) Race *774
Race 8 :9: Winston’s Lad (21-1) Race *754

Key Play:
Race 10 :13: Fifty Fifty (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 :3: Born To Race (21-1)
Race 5 :8: Sight Seeing (31-1)
Race 7 :9: Sure Peace (13-1)
Race 8 :9: Winston’s Lad (21-1)
Race 10 :8: Big Bang Bong (11-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 8, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Good Rail
Key Races: *780, 005, 010, 027 and 039

Notes for the day: Impressive win by Alcari in the first with Amazing star eating a ton of money for a first time starter, did fall to his knees at the break, should improve off that. Fifty Fifty in the last won while having to wait for room, moved over on a few horses causing Teetan a couple race days, but when he cleared he took off. He picked up 8 points which will keep him in Class 2 carrying around 123 lbs., which should be no problem for him.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 1 (091) #7 Amazing Star: Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 3 (093) #3 Ambitious Heart: Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 9 (099) #5 Willie Way: His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 (097) Spicy Kaka: Sat in a perfect spot saving ground on the rail moved to the lead at the top of the stretch passing the tiring duelers. Was hit 15 times all the way down the stretch and just held off a closer for the win in a slow time for the class. Will have to pick up another 5 lbs. in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (091): 97
2nd (092): -91
3rd (093): 96
4th (094): 95
5th (095): 94
6th (096): -99
7th (097): -93
8th (098): 103
9th (099): 103
10th (100): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[proximity]

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :1: Real Deal (4-1) Even though he is taking a drop in class he had showed absolutely nothing lately in Class 4, his speed figures are nowhere close to par even for this class, will bet all day long against types like these at 4-1.



my already abysmal hong kong handicapping was particularly embarrassing in this race. i too hated this horse. i think he ran 4th though which far exceeded the odds i made for him. and i won't even say what i had the winner (winner st paul) at. :blush::blush::blush:

[proximity]

my already abysmal hong kong handicapping was particularly embarrassing in this race. i too hated this horse. i think he ran 4th though which far exceeded the odds i made for him. and i won't even say what i had the winner (winner st paul) at. :blush::blush::blush:

it's really embarrassing for a guy who goes to penn national, lol, but i don't think i'm giving near enough emphasis to trainers here. :blush:

this race ran 12-13-4-1 and the top pct trainers were 13-12-2-4.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor at Happy Valley. Twelfth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 79 degrees, 40% of scattered thunderstorms early. Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171011_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171011_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :11: Confucius Spirit (4-1): Is only 2 for 41 lifetime and 1 for 33 in this class.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 029 (top two finishers won next out and the 5th placed runner ran second)
Race 2 :12: happy Fiery Dragon (19-1)

Race 023 (2nd and 6th won, the winner and third place finishers came back and were runner-ups in their next out)
Race 5 :6: The Jazz (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Double Master (13-1)
Race 2 :1: Bond Elegance (5-1)
Race 3 :12: Trendiful (15-1)
Race 4 :7: King Of Mongolia (10-1)
Race 6 :7: Happy Journey (26-1)
Race 8 :5: Jolly Convergence (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :4: Show Mission (6-1): Had been away since last March, picked up Moreira for the mount and of course was bet down to 4-1, broke well and was pushed up into good position along the rail, settled in 2 lengths off the front runner who eventually finished fourth beaten by ¾ of a length. Scooted in on the rail entering the stretch and looked like he may pull it off at the 150 metre mark but was just a little short, most likely from the long layoff.

Race 5 :2: Speedy Wally (2-1): Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 6 :8: Magnetism (9-1): Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :8: Dollar Reward (10-1) Race 016


Key Play:
Race 7 :6: Premiere (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :5: Cheerful Boy (12-1)
Race 6 :8: Magnetism (10-1)
Race 7 :8: Mr Genuine (13-1)
Race 8 :12: Good Companion (12-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 11, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Impressive wins by both Love Chunghwa and Premiere. Race 1, 5 and 8 came back slow, while Race 3 and 7 were way above par. Favourite in Race 6 #1 Chung Wah Spirit was a quick pull up after his race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (102) #2 Merrygowin: Had been away since May and was bet down as the 5-2 favourite. Drew the outside post, was taken straight to the back after the break, was still 3 wide in the short turn, was taken to the middle of the track entering the stretch, was slightly bumped at the 200 metre mark but finished very well only losing by a length while conceding 24 pounds to the winner who had a much easier trip. Only picked up 1 rating point so will continue in Class 4 for his next race.

Race 4 (104) # 1 Jolly Gene: Was taken back at the start and settled in mid-pack which is usually not where he likes it, after being asked to run on the turn for home had to be taken up at the 250 metre mark when King Of Mongolia was moved out to avoid a tiring Tai Smart, moved to the inside looking for room but again had nowhere to go with Bank Of Red and Rule Thee were drifting in and out. Was wrapped on at the 50 metre mark, galloped out well.

Race 6 (106) # 5 Cheerful Boy: A front running type that leaped out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths to the herd, but more importantly his position as a leader. Entered the first turn climbing, but closed well in the stretch after saving ground and only being given a couple crosses and a few love taps on his right flank. Race came back a little quick for Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (105) # 10 Gentry: Won a very slow Class 4 event at 20-1 while beating Speedy Wally who had a very rough trip and not giving the best ride of Zach Purton’s career.

Speed Figures:
1st (101): 91
2nd (102): 96
3rd (103): 100
4th (104): 102
5th (105): -92
6th (106): 101
7th (107): 107
8th (108): -96

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. October 14th Thirteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 83 degrees 50% chance of afternoon showers Wind: N 20 to 30mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171014_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171014_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :10: Furious Pegasus (4-1): Has yet to finish in the money after 21 tries and 6 of them at this the lowest class level in Hong Kong, his rating just keeps dropping and dropping.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *771 (winners: 8th,12th & 13th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :7: Gentlemen (21-1)

Race 060 (winners: 3rd and 10th)
Race 4 :3: Giddy Giddy (15-1), :6: Flying Godspell (10-1), 11:11: Viva Council (4-1)
Race 5 :13: Sweet Home (6-1)
Race 6 :12: Lucky Girl (24-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Ambitious Speedy (6-1)
Race 2 :5: The Full Bloom (12-1)
Race 3 :1: Industrialist Way (7-1)
Race 6 :2: Solar Hei Hei (12-1)
Race 6 :12: Lucky Girl (24-1)
Race 8 :7: Peace N Prosperity (31-1)
Race 10 :9: A Beautiful (12-1)


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :9: Fine With Me (18-1) Race *762
Race 4 :8: Goal For Gold (7-1) Race *762
Race 6 :7: Citron Spirit (6-1) Race *758
Race 8 :13: Travel Emperor (11-1) Race 009
Race 9 :11: Perpetual Joyance (23-1) Race *768

Key Play:
Race 6 :4: Rocketeer (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :9: Le Pegase (15-1)
Race 8 :1: Fortune Bo Bo (16-1)
Race 8 :13: Travel Emperor (11-1)
Race 9 :3: King Genki (10-1)
Race 10 :11: Silverfield (12-1)

[proximity]

tonight's guesses:

key(contend)

race 1: :10:
race 2: :12: :4:
race 3: :4::9::10:
race 4: :7::11:
race 5: :2::6:
race 6::7::1:
race 7: :7::1:
race 8: pass
race 9: :7:
race 10: :3::9::8::10:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed on the turf held a little bit better than normal.
Key Races: *684, *755, 022, 038 and 059

Notes for the day: A couple races had to be adjusted in their final figures, one was just off with their past figures and the other being the only 1,000 metre race of the day. Spotlight Dream in the 7th and in the 9th Little Giant were both very impressive in their runs on the dirt. In race 2 The Full Bloom and Let’s Take It Easy were both unlucky being stuck nearest to the rail while being boxed the entire trip in the stretch.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #7 World Record: Had been off since July and drew the 10 hole in his debut for the season. Took a slight jump at the break, was very insignificant due to his usual running position, after-wards settled at the back racing around 8 lengths off the leader while the eventual winner was running all alone on a track that favoured front runners. Was stuck behind a wall at the 400 metre mark, had to be taken up slightly at the 320 mark, finally when room became available he exploded to the wire but the race was already decided by then.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #10 Furious Pegasus: The race set up perfectly for him, had to dig in to get to the wire first, even for a Class 5 race it came back very light.

Race 2 #13 Unique Joyful: Yeung had to get to his bottom to hold off a 26-1 Contribution after racing near the lead in a slow pace on a speed favouring track.

Speed Figures:
1st (109): 95
2nd (110): -92#
3rd (111): 97
4th (112): 97
5th (113): 96
6th (114): 105
7th (115): -99
8th (116): 98#
9th (117): 107
10th (118): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. Fourteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees 0% chance of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171018_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171018_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 7 :10: Smart Boy (4-1): Going up in Class and that's a nice jump in Hong Kong from Class 4 to Class 3 and was all out in that Class 4 race. His speed figures a little light for Class 3 too, with others who look to be a little faster than him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 029 (winners: 1st, 2nd and 7th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :2: Winfull Patrol (11-1)

Race 038 (winners: 2nd and 3rd, second: 8th)
Race 2 :10: London Master (12-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4: Wah May Baby (2-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :1: Great Joy (7-1): Broke well with Moreira and took his usual running position at the rear of the field while heading into the first turn, swung to the 4 path entering the stretch full of run but started throwing his head around when room was unavailable. Moved a little further out for room, closed well but was never able to get close to the winner. (He prefers going longer than 1200 which he is entered in for today).

Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (7-1): Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :5: Fun Manager (5-1) Race 031
Race 6 :6: Master Albert (2-1) Race *720


Key Plays:
Race 6 :6: Master Albert (2-1)
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :12: Kim Glory (13-1)
Race 5 :7: Pearl Warm Warm (16-1)
Race 6 :3: Breeders’ Star (15-1)
Race 6 :5: Roundabout (15-1)

[proximity]

tonight's guesses:

key(contend)

race 1: :10:
race 2: :12: :4:
race 3: :4::9::10:
race 4: :7::11:
race 5: :2::6:
race 6::7::1:
race 7: :7::1:
race 8: pass
race 9: :7:
race 10: :3::9::8::10:

last time: connected on furious Pegasus (4.80, 2.70), cp power (9.30,3.50), citron spirit (10.10, 3.20) and little giant (3.80, 2.50) to win. unfortunately none of my other keys hit the board so I was 4/9 to place too (losing $) and 0/10 on both quinellas and omnis.

https://www.offtrackbetting.com/results/race.html?track=sha-tin-(hong-kong)&raceday=20171013

today's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :11:
race 2: :8::12:
race 3: :4::6:
race 4: :2::12:
race 5: :2::10::8::3:
race 6: :6::5:
race 7: :3::7::2::10:
race 8: :1::6::4:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 18, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Winners of the 2nd (London Master) and the 7th (Who Else But You) were both very impressive, while the 5th race looked light for a Class 4 going in and it also looked that coming out. Race 051 looks to have a possibility of becoming a key race soon, what with the winners of races 124 and 125 coming out of it.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 (121) #10 Megatron: Had been showing more speed early in his races lately, but took a slight leap out of the gate forcing Teetan to take him back early on so not to be caught wide going into the first turn. Settled mid-pack on the rail, had to be taken up slightly going into the first turn, moved to the middle of the track at the 300 metre mark for the run for home. Dug in well while never changing to his proper lead foot. He never really having a true chance of catching the top 2.

Race 8 (126) #9 Super Form: Even though the race came back a little slow for its class, he had a real eventful race while going 2 wide in the first turn, then 4 wide in the turn for home and having to move almost to the outside rail in the stretch only to be beaten by a head against a rival who was able to save ground on the rail in the turns.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 (121) #4 Wah May Baby: Raced down the backside in a perfect position with nobody around him, Moreira started rubbing on him with 450 metres to go, hooked up with the eventual second place runner with 200 to go. Moreira had to hit him 15 times to the wire in the stretch just to get up by a head. Picks up 5 rating points which will put him at 59 just under for him to stay at Class 4 while carrying 133 pounds in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (119): 90
2nd (120): 98
3rd (121): 98
4th (122): +92
5th (123): -94#
6th (124): 100
7th (125): 100
8th (126): 98

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongat Sha Tin. Fifteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: N 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171022_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171022_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 9 :10: Top Beautiful (5-1): Is two for two but was all out in his last while getting a 12 pounds allowance against Beauty Master, draws the 12 hole with the short run to the turn and a little tougher overall field from his last.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *773 (winners: 3rd and 7th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :6: Lucky Time (7-1)

Race 038 (winners: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, second: 8th)
Race 1 :9: Fish N’ Chips (12-1)

Race *801 (winners: 2nd and 7th, second: winner)
Race 2 :12: Aeroluminance (32-1)

Race 022 (winners: 6th, 7th and 10th)
Race 3 :2: Good Method (9-1)

Race *807 (winners: 3rd and 6th, second: winner)
Race 4 :1: Circuit Hassler (12-1)

Race *757 (winners: 4th and 7th, second: 2nd)
Race 7 :2: Thewizardofoz (6-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :9: Fish N’ Chips (12-1)
Race 2 :12: Aeroluminance (32-1)
Race 3 :2: Good Method (9-1)
Race 6 :5: Solar Hei Hei (15-1)
Race 7 :2: Thewizardofoz (6-1)
Race 7 :7: Dashing Fellow (16-1)
Race 10 :5: Hang’s Decision (35-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :9: Yourthewonforme (7-2): Leaped out of the gate costing him at least a couple lengths of running position, but worse all was stuck in the rear of a full field. Raced on the rail full of run in the fourth flight, but was all caught up in the wash in the stretch never being able to properly extend his legs.

Race 3 :10: Laughing Lord (16-1): Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 9 :14: Star Of Patch (9-1): Had been away since last January, was able to get the services of Purton and was bet down to 5-2, raced at the tail of the field 2 wide in the turn chasing a very slow early pace. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch full of run and looked to be a winner at the 200 metre mark, but was probably just a little short after the lengthy rest, just being outrun near the wire. (May be a little outclassed in today’s race)

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :4: Doyeni (9-1) Race *787
Race 6 :7: Dinozzo (5-2) Race *787
Race 8 :8: Winner’s way (12-1) Race *757
Race 9 :8: Daring Fit (5-1) Race 027

Key Plays:
Race 5 :9: Flying Noble (5-2)
Race 10 :2: Nothinglikemore (8-5)


Longshots:
Race 1 :12: Hot Hot Pepper (12-1)
Race 2 :4: Great Treasure (18-1)
Race 3 :11: Snowhooves (20-1)
Race 6 :12: Rickfield (26-1)
Race 7 :9: Fabulous One (36-1)
Race 8 :8: Winner’s Way (12-1)

[proximity]

today's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :11:
race 2: :8::12:
race 3: :4::6:
race 4: :2::12:
race 5: :2::10::8::3:
race 6: :6::5:
race 7: :3::7::2::10:
race 8: :1::6::4:

last time: connected on wah may baby (5.50,3.00) and gonna run (9.10,3.30) to win while gold velvet (5.10) and master albert (2.60) hit the place line for a small loss in both markets. only 1/11 (12.10) in the elusive quinella pool but 3/11 (55.40) for a winning day in omnis. heartbreak in the 7th where I key Moreira who runs out while my other three contenders run 1-3-2. win some, lose some.

tonight's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: pass
race 2: :6::14::8::3:
race 3: :9::1:
race 4: :6::5:
race 5: :9::4::2:
race 6: :7::3:
race 7: :2::9::3:
race 8: :11::13:
race 9: :2::9:
race 10: :2::11:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 22, 2017
Track: Sha Tine
Bias: Speed held a little better than normal for the rail at the “A” setting.
Key Races: *773

Notes for the day: Times were all over the place, days like this gives figure makers nightmares. Race 2 broke a track record at 1600 metres for Class 4, the winner Morethanlucky picked up 8 rating points for the effort, his number still keeps him competitive at Class 3 where he will most likely carry around 120 pounds. Race 5 came back very slow and will try and avoid or play against anything that will come out of that race. Lucky Bubbles made a nice run in the stretch while switching back and forth on his lead step, only to beaten by Mr. Stunning by a half-length and who had already had a race under him since the break. Should reverse the outcome the next time they face each other. A real clunker of an effort by Beauty Only in the eighth race. In the 9th Super Fluke earned an above average number for Class 3 and with him only picking up 7 rating points it will keep him in Class 3 for his next race. Top Beautiful in that same race was taken too far back and ended up caught in the was in the stretch, not a very good ride by Moreira. Nothingilikemore is now rated up to 109, welcome to the big boy’s table.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #1 Circuit Hassler: Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 #7 Supper Hoppy: In his debut race in Hong Kong after going 3 for 3 in Australia where he raced right off the leaders, raced in the back early on Sunday. Was 2 wide in the turn then was stuck behind by a great wall in the stretch, squeezed his way thru at the 200 metre mark, continued to the wire while never really having an opportunity to catch the winner who ran an above average time for the class.

Race 10 #8 Jolly Jolly: Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 ¾ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #6 Lucky Time: Had everything go his way, a nice pace that set up for him and finally outfinished some tired rivals while racing on his wrong lead step in a very slow time, even with a nice headwind in his face.

Race 5 Anything out this race.

Speed Figures:
1st (127): 92#
2nd (128): +101#
3rd (129): 93
4th (130): 99
5th (131): -90#
6th (132): 105
7th (133): 109
8th (134): 109
9th (135): 103
10th (136): 103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Sixteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Clear skies 10% chance of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good to Firm (Usually plays more towards speed than any other track in Hong Kong)

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171025_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171025_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 027 (winners: 1st, 2nd and 3rd)
Race 8 :10: Happy Happy Star (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :6: Wealthy Fortune (35-1)
Race 5 :1: Bold Elegance (19-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Girl (7-1)
Race 8 :12: Back In Black (14-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :2: Jolly Gene (9-1): Was taken back at the start and settled in mid-pack which is usually not where he likes it, after being asked to run on the turn for home had to be taken up at the 250 metre mark when King Of Mongolia was moved out to avoid a tiring Tai Smart, moved to the inside looking for room but again had nowhere to go with Bank Of Red and Rule Thee were drifting in and out. Was wrapped on at the 50 metre mark, galloped out well.

Race 1 :5: Gorgeous Again (7-2): Was on the watch list from his last race, broke well and was in a good position on the backside and the turn while saving ground on the rail. When straightened up for the run home the good position turned into a detriment being stuck behind a wall of three, when he moved closer to the rail the one directly in front him also drifted in, while this was going on the eventual winner was making his winning move. Purton wrapped up on him after he realized it was a done deal.

Race 8 :1: Starlight (2-1): Is really in form at the moment, got a PERFECT trip in here with 2 dueling on the lead with 2 more in front of him and Starlight running along with no company around him. Drew to the leaders entering the stretch and drew away with all the ease in the world with Purton never even hitting him with the stick.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :3: Victory Follow Me (7-2) Race 068
Race 5 :8: Multigogo (7-1) Race 001
Race 6 :3: Speedy Wally (4-1) Race 052


Key Plays:
Race 2 :3: Victory Follow Me (7-2)
Race 8 :1: Starlight (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :2: Jolly Gene (9-1)
Race 4 :1: Dr Race (18-1)
Race 6 :5: Happy And Healthy (12-1)
Race 8 :10: Happy Happy Star (9-1)

[proximity]

tonight's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: pass
race 2: :6::14::8::3: ($24.50 p, $67 Omni)
race 3: :9::1: ($24.00 w, $11.50 p)
race 4: :6::5: (23.50 p, 71.50 Omni)
race 5: :9::4::2: (#2 scratched)
race 6: :7::3:(13.50 p, 38.50 Omni)
race 7: :2::9::3:
race 8: :11::13:
race 9: :2::9:
race 10: :2::11:($16.00 w, $11.50 p)


last time: a lot of bets on Moreira with only yourthewonforme (race 3)and nothingilikemore (race 10) grinding out chalky wins. 5/9 hit the place line for a small loss in that market. it was another brutal day on quinellas (0/12). omnis continue to be a bright spot as I went 3/12 for another winning day. $10 hong kong prices posted above.

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :3:ensuring :1:
race 2: :3:victory follow me :8::11::1::4:
race 3::2: cloud nine
race 4: :6:elegance promise :3:
race 5: :5:look eras :2::6:
race 6: pass race
race 7: :2:winwin ruby:4:
race 8: :1:starlight :5:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 25, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 085

Notes for the day: In the 1st Gorgeous Again had no visible excuse for such a poor effort in the first, Nash pretty much just wrapped up on him early in mid-stretch after he figured not to have anything under him. Premium Champion in the 3rd was a quick pull up after his race. Impressive win by Speedy King in the fourth, looks to be a nice push button type with his figure being just above average for the class, even after the slow start at the break. He picks up 6 points which will allow him to compete again in Class 4 once more. Lucky Girl was very unlucky picking up 2 rating points after a nice second place run which will move him back up to Class 2 which looks above his capability at the moment even with the weight allowance. In the final Starlight outclassed a decent Class 3 field, rating is up to 81 which will force him up to Class 2 but getting to race with low weight, will lose Purton for that out due to Zach not being able make that weight. In that same race there were plenty of trouble trips: Navas, Grace Heart and Back In Black all encountered enough interference to impeed their final running positions.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 (143) #8 Bank On Red: Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 8 (144) # 6 Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (141) #5 Look Eras: Nash had to use every ounce of run he had in him to get up to the wire in a slow Class 4 race. Picks up 5 points off that effort, which will force him to carry around 131 pounds for his next race in Class 4.

Speed Figures:
1st (137): 103#
2nd (138): -93#
3rd (139): -94#
4th (140): 97
5th (141): -93
6th (142): -96
7th (143): 101
8th (144): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. Seventeenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 82 degrees few clouds 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00amET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171029_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171029_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :1: Le Panache (7-2): Closed well in his last at 2000 metres at 20-1, is adding 200 more metres here but is also adding 8 pounds on his back, will bet against him with only one out of thirteen races in the money and a .02% trainer.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :2: Wah May Baby (11-1)
Race 10 :11: Jumbo Luck (6-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 4 :1: Merrygowin (9-5): Had been away since May and was bet down as the 5-2 favourite. Drew the outside post, was taken straight to the back after the break, was still 3 wide in the short turn, was taken to the middle of the track entering the stretch, was slightly bumped at the 200 metre mark but finished very well only losing by a length while conceding 24 pounds to the winner who had a much easier trip.

Race 5 :11: Megatron (4-1): Had been showing more speed early in his races lately, but took a slight leap out of the gate forcing Teetan to take him back early on so not to be caught wide going into the first turn. Settled mid-pack on the rail, had to be taken up slightly going into the first turn, moved to the middle of the track at the 300 metre mark for the run for home. Dug in well while never changing to his proper lead foot. He never really having a true chance of catching the top 2.


Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :3: London City (14-1) Race 030
Race 4 :12: Show Mission (18-1) Race 066
Race 10 :2: House Of Fun (19-1) Race *742


Key Plays:
Race 2 :1: Love Chunghwa (7-2)
Race 4 :1: Merrygowin (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :7: Island Fever (12-1)
Race 3 :8: Rocket Let Win (11-1)
Race 7 :8: Mr Right (15-1)
Race 8 :9: Relentless Me (13-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 29, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *751

Notes for the day: First two races of the day were slower than par while the last came back quicker than normal. Haymaker encountered quite a bit of trouble after breaking from the 11 hole in the 3rd, but he has never shown any inclination of winning or he would have made my watch list. Merrygowin was unluck not getting up for the win after conceding 16 pounds to the winner. Very impressive win for the Aussie first timer in Hong Kong Powermax, had plenty in the tank even after encountering trouble at the break. Line Seeker loses a rating point which will keep him in Class 2, closed well after being blocked in the stretch. In that same race Southern Legend is now up to 102 which puts him in Class 1, should be able to compete there with the weight allowance.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Better Choice: First time starter for So was totally cold on the board at 77-1. Was a step slow out of the gate, became a little rank on the backside then took Ng 3 wide in to the turn, then shifted to the 6 path for the run home had to shift slightly when Accession Years came into his path. Really took off at the 150 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders, hopefully he while be able to get a top allowance rider for his next race at the Valley.

Race 9 #1 Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. Picked up 2 rating points off the effort which will bring him up to a total of 92 which will allow another try at Class 2.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #11 Sharpmind: Was hit a total of 15 times in the stretch by Risoli and was non-stop for the last 70 metres just holding off the favourite Merrygowin while getting a substantial weight allowance.

Race 5 #2 Wah May Baby: Was a quick pull up after his poor performance.

Speed Figures:
1st (145): +89
2nd (146): -93
3rd (147): 95
4th (148): 96
5th (149): 98
6th (150): +99
7th (151): 98
8th (152): 102
9th (153): 103
10th (154): +107

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Eighteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “AWT”, track listed: Fast

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171101_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171101_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :12: Imperial concorde (4-1): All of his victories have been on the dirt surface, but was all out just to miss in his last and drawing the 13 gate with the short run to the first turn doesn’t bode well for him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *755 (winners: 1st and 3rd, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :6: Kirov (6-1)

Race *771 (winners: 8th, 12th and 13th, second: 6th)
Race 3 :11: Holy Unicorn (16-1)

Race 039 (winners: 7th and 10th, second: 3rd and 4th)
Race 3 :3: Happy Beauty (8-1)
Race 3 :5: Diamond Friends (2-1)
Race 3 :7: Equity Doctrine (11-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :3: Willie Way (8-1): His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 :9: Sure Peace (22-1) Race *774
Race 5 :11: Goal For Gold (8-1) Race *762
Race 6 :3: Fantastic Feeling (35-1) Race 053

Key Plays:
Race 7 :3: Willie Way (8-1)
Race 8 :6: Divine Boy (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Trendiful (20-1)
Race 2 :5:Giddy Giddy (11-1)
Race 3 :1: Jimson The Famous (30-1)
Race 6 :7: Lucky Guy (12-1)

[proximity]

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :3:ensuring :1: ($14 p, $116 quin, $40 omni)
race 2: :3:victory follow me :8::11::1::4:
race 3::2: cloud nine ($20 win, $10.10 p)
race 4: :6:elegance promise :3:
race 5: :5:look eras :2::6: ($63.50 w, $20 p, $222 quin, $70 omni)
race 6: pass race
race 7: :2:winwin ruby:4:
race 8: :1:starlight :5: ($18 w, $10.50 p)

last time: 3/7 to win with look eras (63.50 hk) sandwiched between the chalkier cloud nine and starlight. ensuring hits the place line but i again suffer defeat in that market. finally breakthrough with a pair of quinellas to suddenly get back into contention for the season on the exotic.

season: win 11/33 1.07 roi, place 17/33 0.81 roi, quinella 3/43 0.93 roi, omni 8/43 1.31 roi.

today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :6:foxbat :3::8::1:
race 2: :10:startling power :3:
race 3: :5:diamond friends :3::12:
race 4: :11: confucius spirit :5::10:
race 5: :1: gran master
race 6::10:most beautiful :7:
race 7: :2:red marvel
race 8: :6:divine boy :1::8:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Sprints were considerably slower than the route races with the exception of the last race, which was the only race on the card that was faster than par. Going to give Willie Way another try after closing strongly in the lane after going extremely wide in the second turn only to get beat by a neck by the favourite.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Pick Number One: First time starter that went off as the betting favourite and won with ease against a fairly decent Class 4 field while running a final speed figure 6 points faster than par. Engaged in a duel immediately out of the gate which lasted for 850 meteres until Beekley threw in the towel at the top of the lane and still held off the top 2 weights with ease. Picked up 8 rating points to a total of 60, which will keep him in Class 4 for another try carrying 133 pounds, hopefully he’ll pick up a bug boy and get an allowance.

Race 8 #9 Classic Emperor: Ran one of the most impressive races of the season so far, in his first try on the dirt defeating a big favourite in Divine Boy by almost 7 lengths who beat the third place runner by 2 lengths himself. Picked up a whopping 11 points off the effort, hopefully So will keep him on the dirt from now on.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Red Marvel: Moreira had to really get into him in the lane going to the whip 15 times to hold off Willie Way who had a much tougher trip than he did. Will be forced to carry top weight of 133 in his next start in Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (155): 89
2nd (156): 94
3rd (157): 94
4th (158): 102
5th (159): -95
6th (160): 99
7th (161): 100
8th (162): 110

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Good Luck everybody with The Breeders’ Cup this weekend!

[proximity]

today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :6:foxbat :3::8::1: ($76 w, $26.50 p)
race 2: :10:startling power :3:
race 3: :5:diamond friends :3::12: ($21 w, $13 p)
race 4: :11: confucius spirit :5::10:
race 5: :1: gran master
race 6::10:most beautiful :7:
race 7: :2:red marvel ($31.50 w, $16 p)
race 8: :6:divine boy :1::8: ($12 p)


last time: get off to a good start with Foxbat ($76 hk) in the opener but can only win with lower priced diamond friends and red marvel in the next seven. divine boy hits the place line. 0/11 in both quinellas and omnis.

season: win 14/41 (1.18 roi) place 21/41 (0.82) quin 3/54 (0.74) Omni 8/54 (1.04)

November 5 guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :10:lucky lucky :1:
race 2: :9:winner st paul's :11::7::12:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :2:i'm a witness
race 5: :13:midnite promise :6::2:
race 6: :1:great joy :4:
race 7: :4:time warp
race 8: :8:tai smart :1::6::7:
race 9: :1:spicy sure
race 10: :10:big bang bong :2::5:

[proximity]

is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on..... :bang:

[proximity]

is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on..... :bang:

everything is good now at amwager!

good luck to all hong kong bettors. :)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Nineteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 78 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171105_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171105_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :5: Conte (8-5): Might be a nice runner, but as a first time starter for John Size breaking for the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at 1200 metres at Sha Tin it will most likely have him parked wide throughout. Will watch him closely and try and beat him today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 059 (Winners: 7th and 9th, second: 8th)
Race 6 :4: Red Elysees (7-2)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Hot King Prawn (7-5)
Race 7 :4: Time Warp (9-5)
Race 10 :1: Hang’s Decision (36-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :6: Amazing Star (9-2): Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 4 :3: Ambitious Heart (8-1): Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 7 :14: Nassa (18-1): Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire. (May be a little out of his weight class in today’s race making a jump from Class 2-104 to a Group three race-110.)

Race 8 :1: Circuit Hassler (3-1): Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 :14: Call Me Awesome (13-1): In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. (Unfortunately, he’s not racing at his preferable Happy Valley course.)

Race 10 :4: Jolly Jolly (13-1): Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 ¾ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :1: Great Joy (10-1) Race *791
Race 8 :3: Jolly Gene (27-1) Race 104

Key Plays:
Race 6 :4: Red Elysees (7-2)
Race 8 :1: Circuit Hassler (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :12: Sweet Home (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Doyeni (11-1)
Race 9 :14: Call Me Awesome (13-1)
Race 10 :4: Jolly Jolly (13-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 5, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed
Key Races: 074 and 093

Notes for the day: Track was a little faster than normal due to the rail position and the installation of the winter rye grass. In the first both Amazing Star and Alcari picked up enough points to go up to Class 3. Undefeated Hot King Prawn picked up 9 rating points up to 77, so will pick 9 to 10 pounds next out while still racing at the same class level. Diamond King closed well late in that same race, look for him to go further. Was off on the first time starter Conte, won for fun while breaking from the 12 gate, should improve off that effort in class 3 with the weight allowance. Will give Red Elysees out of race 6 another try next out, was caught in on the rail with no running room in the stretch and Jolly Jolly in the 10th. Nassa picked up 18 points winning the Group Three Ladies’ Purse, Circuit Land, Eagle Way and Rocketeer encountered enough trouble to have a line drawn thru their races.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #5 Fifty Fifty: Went off as the 1.9-1 favourite, broke well from the 2 hole sat around three lengths back off the eventual longshot winner who was able to get a comfortable lead on a track that was favouring front runners most of the day. Was pinned in on the rail in the third flight entering the stretch, Teetan forced his way out and bumping Healthy Joy at the 280 metre mark (the move cost Teetan 2 racing days), when clear really started moving in the final 150 metres of the race only to lose out by a neck. Picked up 2 points for a total of 91 which will allow him to run in a 95-75 Class 2 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #9 Winner St. Paul’s: Won a very slow Class 5 race while getting a perfect trip.

Speed Figures:
1sst (163): 99
2nd (164): 89
3rd (165): 100#
4th (166): -96
5th (167): +96
6th (168): 96
7th (169): +112
8th (170): 98
9th (171): +100
10th (172): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Joao Moreira involved in a spill on the Melbourne Cup undercard, nasty spill. No broken bones in the report, just very sore.

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2118702/magic-man-joao-moreira-ruled-out-melbourne-cup-after-falling-regal

[proximity]

lor will probably get winner st paul's back up to a 95 on your numbers woodbine. he's almost an automatic play right now.

i don't want to be a keyboard warrior like these australian punters but i'm about to stop picking and betting moreira. he just doesn't come in for me. the hk cards are more interesting when he doesn't ride but i do hope he's ok as i don't want to see anyone hurt, human or equine.

great thread and great circuit to follow though. could only be better with american saddlecloths. :)

[proximity]

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"??? :confused:

[woodbinepmi]

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"??? :confused:

On - is their opening odds
td - their current odds.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Twentieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees Few Clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171108_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171108_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 :11: Generous Heart (7-2): Is 0 for 5 in Class 3 after holding off a longshot in his last at the Class 4 level in a very average time.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won)
Race *722 (winners: 7th & 10th, second: 2nd)
Race 8 :10: Perpetual Treasure (35-1
)
Race *792 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 3 :7: Funny Buddies (25-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :3: Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 4 :5: Trendy Win (9-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 5 :5: Fairy Twins (14-1)
Race 6 :5: Goodheart Success (24-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1): Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 7 :9: Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :12: The Sylph (10-1) Race 012


Key Play:
Race 3 :6: Multigogo (5-2)
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :3: Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 5 :1: Golden Harvest (14-1)
Race 6 :12: The Sylph (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Grace Heart (11-1)
Race 8 :4: House Of Fun (13-1)

[proximity]

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2118866/sore-joao-moreira-miss-happy-valley-meeting

breaking news: moreira's out for happy valley.....

[proximity]

November 5 guesses for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :10:lucky lucky :1:
race 2: :9:winner st paul's :11::7::12: ($20.50 w, $11.50 p, $27.50 omni)
race 3: pass race
race 4: :2:i'm a witness
race 5: :13:midnite promise :6::2:
race 6: :1:great joy :4:
race 7: :4:time warp ($12 place)
race 8: :8:tai smart :1::6::7:
race 9: :1:spicy sure ($13.50 place)
race 10: :10:big bang bong :2::5:

last time: worst session yet with only winner st paul's crossing the line first. time warp and spicy sure get gobbled up late. :bang:

season: win 15/50 (1.01 roi) place 24/50 (0.75 roi) quinella 3/66 (0.60 roi) omni 9/66 (0.90 roi)

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :4: savannah wind :2:
race 2: :7: elegance promise :11:
race 3: :10: otouto
race 4: :10: supreme storm :12:
race 5: :6: new elegance :1:
race 6: :4:jade fortune :12:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:starlight

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 8, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Speed
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: With the winter rye planted and very little rain lately in Hong Kong and also the rail out to the B position speed was holding a lot better than normal. Race 8 was a little above average for a Class 2 race at the Valley while races 2, 3 and 7 were a little light. In Race 4 Forever Posh closed well against the bias after running very rank in the early stages. The winner of Race 5 Fantastic Eight picked up 8 rating points off his easy victory while running a figure that will have him competing against Class 2 runners next out with the weight break. Going to give Grace Heart out of Race 7 another go second time in a row that he was compromised at the break being knocked sideways and forcing him to race near the back. Was hoping the judges wouldn’t give Archippus any points after his bad draw and making a nice move against the bias only to be beaten by Born In China who ran a huge figure, but unfortunately he was rewarded ONE point which will move him up to Class 1. That race looks to have a good chance of becoming a key race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #1 Breeders’ Star: Drew the 9 post with the short run to the hook at 1200 metres at the Valley, was caught flat footed when the gates opened costing him at least a length to the field but worse all putting him in a position against the track that night. Was able to save ground in the turn, closed well in the stretch only to be a length and a half off the winner while only being hit twice in the stretch by Callan, looked full of run in the gallop out.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 4 #6 Curling Luxury: Had a perfect trip and was still only able to get up by a neck and not getting to his proper lead foot while beating the favourite who raced against the track and surrendered 17 pounds to this one.

Speed Figures:
1st (173): +94
2nd (174): 95
3rd (175): -94
4th (176): 97
5th (177): 105#
6th (178): -99
7th (179): 98
8th (180): 108

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[proximity]

Key Play:
Race 3 :6: Multigogo (5-2)
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1)



nice win there on bank on red.

market went up to $9!! :cool:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 11th the twenty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% chance of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171111_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171111_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :7: Acturiat (9-2): Just missed in his last after going wide and be beaten by the favourite at 45-1, going to play against the maiden in Hong Kong that was his win effort.

Race 7 :7: Limitless (8-5): May be missing something here but can’t figure out why they are betting him so heavily in here? Has been off since July and even those races aren’t fast enough to win this.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *705 (winners: 3rd, 6th & 7th, second: 8th)
Race 8 :2: Fortune Patrol (122-1)

Race 060 (winners: 3rd & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 4 :6: Regency Darling (24-1)

Race 093 (winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :8: Wish Come True (85-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :6: Regency Darling (24-1)
Race 6 :4: Back In Black (29-1)
Race 9 :1: Rattan (5-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :3: Super Hoppy (9-2): In his debut race in Hong Kong after going 3 for 3 in Australia where he raced right off the leaders, raced in the back early on Sunday. Was 2 wide in the turn then was stuck behind by a great wall in the stretch, squeezed his way thru at the 200 metre mark, continued to the wire while never really having an opportunity to catch the winner who ran an above average time for the class.

Race 10 :3: World Record (3-1): Had been off since July and drew the 10 hole in his debut for the season. Took a slight jump at the break, was very insignificant due to his usual running position, after-wards settled at the back racing around 8 lengths off the leader while the eventual winner was running all alone on a track that favoured front runners. Was stuck behind a wall at the 400 metre mark, had to be taken up slightly at the 320 mark, finally when room became available he exploded to the wire but the race was already decided by then.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 7 :1: Booming Delight (8-1)
Race 10 :3: World Record (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :1: Right Honourable (17-1)
Race 5 :10: Bossiee (14-1)
Race 6 :4: Back In Black (29-1)
Race 10 :13: G-One Lover (16-1)

[proximity]

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :4: savannah wind :2:
race 2: :7: elegance promise :11:
race 3: :10: otouto
race 4: :10: supreme storm :12:
race 5: :6: new elegance :1:
race 6: :4:jade fortune :12:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:starlight

last time: 0 for everything in a truly embarrassing performance. :bang:

season: win 15/57 (0.88) place 24/57 (0.65) quinella 3/71 (0.56) Omni 9/71 (0.83)

tonight's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :10:brilliant monkeys :12::9:
race 2: pass race
race 3: :14:indigenous star :11:
race 4: :9:numero uno :11:
race 5: pass race
race 6: :8:young legend
race 7: :3:western express :10::5:
race 8: :3: bravo watchman :5::11:
race 9: :6: tai smart :13:
race 10: :8:volitation

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 11, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *778, 094 and 098

Notes for the day:
Races 2, 5 and 7 came back a little soft for their respective levels, while the 10th was a very tough Class 3 race. Very poor showing for the So’s first time starters in Hong Kong, heavily bet Gouten Of Garo in the second ran an inexcusable effort in a very slow Class 4 event. Smart Charade was wide after drawing the 12 post in the fourth and was hand ridden to the wire, while Eighty Eighty had enough trouble to give him another chance. In the fourth Dashing Dart, Numero Uno, Har Mar Heart and Royale Elegance’s races can be drawn thru with all the trouble they encountered. World Record earned a figure that will make him competitive in Class 1 what with the weight allowance, he drew away easily with plenty in the tank.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 1 #10 Brilliant Monkeys: Had been away since June, he needed the break because his efforts before that were very uninspiring. After being bet down to 9-2 was bumped sideways at the break forcing him to the rear of the field, was in tight on the turn full of run while traveling in the 2 path. Moved out to the 5 lane entering the stretch and continued a nice move all the way to the wire but was unable to catch the lone speed winner, galloped out very nicely past the line.

Race 4 #11 Royal Elegance: Was very unlucky in the draw with the 13 post, broke with a little more action than usual and became rank soon afterwards when Pebble grabbed his head to take him back. Had to check up at the 650 mark when Har Har Heart started to want to get out, split two at the 250 spot and closed to within a head bob of the co-favourite, with his figure 2 points above par for Class 4.

Race 5 #5 Eighty Eighty: One of So’s heavily bet first time starters who drew the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at the 1200 metres distance. Was bumped pretty hard at the start by the outside runner Sincere Dragon, then rushed up near the front runners without being asked by Moreira, raced 4 wide in the turn under a strangle hold, all the while the eventual winner was able to get an uncontested early lead and setting a very slow middle section. Ran even thru the lane while not being able to make up the ground on the winner, Moreira wrapped up on him at the 150 metres mark.

Race 10 #5 Ping Hai Star: Drew a very difficult field for his first try in Hong Kong for Size and Moreira while exiting out of the 14 hole. Of course with the connections was bet down to 7-2 as the second choice at the windows. Took a left turn out of the gate costing him his usual running style at the front that he had been showing in his barrier trials, raced at the rear in the 3 path was blocked for the early part of the stretch but forced his way clear at the 200 metre mark the same time the eventual winner favourite was making his winning move. Moreira put the stick away for the final 50 metres after not being able to close the distance on the winner while never getting to his proper lead step. Galloped out past the winner after the wire, should improve with a go under his belt in his next after only picking up 2 rating points up to a total of 74.

Horses to avoid next out:

Speed Figures:
1st (181): 91
2nd (182): 87 ?
3rd (183): 97
4th (184): +98
5th (185): -93
6th (186): 102
7th (187): 104
8th (188): 101
9th (189): 98 #
10th (190): 105

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 15, 2017 Twenty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Few clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171115_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171115_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *721 (winners: 2nd and 9th, second: 1st and 10th)
Race 8 :6: Happy Spirit (27-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th and 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :9: Balay Balay (19-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :4: Double Master (17-1)
Race 3 :4: Bond Elegance (12-1)
Race 4 :1: Happy And Healthy (9-1)
Race 6 :11: Smart Declaration (14-1)
Race 7 :3: Victory Boys (5-1)
Race 8 :10: Lucky Girl (5-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :10: Super Form (7-1): Even though the race came back a little slow for its class, he had a real eventful race while going 2 wide in the first turn, then 4 wide in the turn for home and having to move almost to the outside rail in the stretch only to be beaten by a head against a rival who was able to save ground on the rail in the turns.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 7 :10: Super Form (7-1)
Race 8 :10: Lucky Girl (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 :5: Pearl Warm Warm (30-1)
Race 6 :1: Fortune Bo Bo (21-1)
Race 7 :8: Photon Willie (14-1)

[proximity]

tonight's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :10:brilliant monkeys :12::9:
race 2: pass race
race 3: :14:indigenous star :11: ($27 w, $13 p)
race 4: :9:numero uno :11:
race 5: pass race
race 6: :8:young legend ($45.50 p)
race 7: :3:western express :10::5: ($27.50 w, $12.50 p, $30 Omni)
race 8: :3: bravo watchman :5::11: ($11.50 p)
race 9: :6: tai smart :13:
race 10: :8:volitation

last time: Moreira gets indigenous star and western express under the line first. if he stays inside maybe he wins with bravo watchman who is nipped by longshot golden sun? young legend hits the place line to give me my best place price of the season and I believe my first profitable session in that market?

season: win 17/65 (0.86 roi), place 28/65 (0.70), quinella 3/80 (0.50), Omni 10/80 (0.78)

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :10: kim glory :7::3::4::1:
race 2: :12:spicy double :3::2:
race 3: :4: bond elegance :6::2:
race 4: :7: never better :4:
race 5: :3: exceptional desire :11::1::6:
race 6: :9: wayfong Vinnie :7::12:
race 7: :2: red marvel :4:
race 8: :5: big bang bong

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 15, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 086, 143 & 147

Notes for the day: The first and the fourth came back a little light for their respective classes. Phantom Falcon earned a nice figure out of the 3rd and should be competitive in Class 3 if he gets a nice draw with the weight break going up in class, after running 4 seconds out of 5 races he may have figured out it’s better to have your picture taken then going straight to the test barn. The final time in the 5th may have been an effect of the slow pace, will look closely at Born Dragon next time out though after all the trouble he had to endure. Will try and beat Keep Moving in his next go, his number went down in this win but had to dig down for the extra effort while defeating Money Boy who had a much tougher trip. Super Form ran a good race for me while just missing by a neck after having to travel the wide way around. Watch the final and judge for yourself how much trouble Pikachu and Beauty Prince encountered in it to see if it was significant enough to put on the watch list. Send me a message and tell me what you think.
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/Results/english/Local/20171115/HV/8 (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/Results/english/Local/20171115/HV/8)

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 #2 Gallant Return: In his second lifetime try where he had run a game second to Fantastic Show in a Griffin race last September. Drew the 9 hole and the services of Mr. Purton who took him straight to the back in order to save as much ground as possible all while the eventual winner was loose on the lead. He then became a little rank half-way down the backside, moved well in the stretch gaining on the leader while racing in traffic like a veteran, Zach only went to the stick 3 times in the final 70 metres. Should be sitting on a win if he can get a little more pace, didn’t pick up any rating points to stay at 59 and stay in Class 4.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #3 Exceptional Desire: A front runner who was able to get an easy lead in a slow paced race after breaking from the rail. Was out run by Confucius Spirit (25-1) who did have a 16 pound weight allowance but Exceptional Desire gave up the lead without much of an effort in the final 100 metres, was a quick pull-up soon after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (191): 90
2nd (192): 91
3rd (193): 99 #
4th (194): 93
5th (195): -93
6th (196): 100
7th (197): -99 #
8th (198): +105

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 19, 2017 Twenty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 71 degrees cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171119_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171119_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :4: Ensuring (5-2): Hasn’t won since July 5, 2015 and is only 1 for 25 at Sha Tin, always seems to be there but never comes thru.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *684 (winners: 1st, 4th & 8th)
Race 3 :11: Compassion Star (8-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :3: Crown Avenue (5-2)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :5: Hang’s Decision (28-1)
Race 9 :10: Happy Journey (27-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :12: Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. (May be in a little over his head in here, was hoping for another Class 2 race)

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :9: Gorgeous Again (13-1) Race 074
Race 5 :12: Circuit Hassler (8-1) Race 130

Key Plays:
Race 5 :1: Rocketeer (8-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Bubbles (2-1)
Race 9 :8: Top Beautiful (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Ambitious Pins (22-1)
Race 4 :14: Happy Contender (19-1)
Race 5 :6: Prawn Baba (10-1)
Race 9 :9: Starship (19-1)
Race 10 :6: Momentum Lucky (26-1)

[The Coomster]

I thought both runners you mentioned as possibly compromised sat the trip patiently until they straightened up. They both had time to uncoil and come at the lead, but neither offered much more than an even kick late. The wide rally at HV usually seems better than the inside “wait and strike”, but rail runners must show something to get a pass and these two didnt, atleast for me. I will follow both for educational purposes. Good punting.

[proximity]

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :10: kim glory :7::3::4::1:
race 2: :12:spicy double :3::2:
race 3: :4: bond elegance :6::2: ($41 place)
race 4: :7: never better :4: ($15 place, $66.50 Omni)
race 5: :3: exceptional desire :11::1::6: ($13 place, $99 Omni)
race 6: :9: wayfong Vinnie :7::12:
race 7: :2: red marvel :4: ($18.50 place)
race 8: :5: big bang bong ($14 place)

last time: completely blanked to win as the slump continues. five picks hit the place line and I get a pair of omnis for small profits in those markets. quinellas, as usual, are donations.

season: win 17/73 (0.76) place 33/73 (0.76) quin 3/95 (0.42) Omni 12/95 (0.83)

today's picks for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :11: furious Pegasus :6:
race 2: :8: good fit
race 3: :6: noble de love :11:
race 4: :4:ensuring
race 5: :2: dinozzo :4::11:
race 6: :4:gold mount :3:
race 7: :1:luck bubbles :3:
race 8: :8: horse of fortune :12::1::6:
race 9: :8: top beautiful :2:
race 10: :7: jing jing win :1:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 19, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Closers on the turf
Key Races: 080 and 134

Notes for the day: Race 3 came back very soft even with the final time in line with par. Enduring in the fourth ran his usual race looking like a winner at the top of the lane but never kicked in enough to get up first to the wire. Amazing Agility in that same race ran a very nice race considering he was forced wide again. In the first of the Graded races, Time Warp put a scare in Werther what with Berry really having to get into him to get by Time Warp at the line, Moore had made reference to Werther being not in 100% for this race the out should have him good to go for December. Very strange race with Leung letting Harbour Master get away from him in the backside. In the Sprint Chadwick on Peniaphobia took the lead then slammed the brakes on him in the turn causing a serious traffic jam helping Mr Stunning with him racing wide not getting caught up in it. They don’t take too kindly on that kind of riding in Hong Kong, and was severely reprimanded for it. Watch list horse Sichuan Dar ran a game race in the Mile only losing by 2 at 58-1, hopefully he’ll be dropped back down to his proper class. Beat The Clock continues to improve, exploded to the wire under a hand ride carrying top weight against a good Class 2 field, out of that same race look closely for Fortune Booth to win next time out.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 5 #4 Sacred Elixir: Made a nice improvement in his second race in Hong Kong, was outrun in the stretch by the Moreira ridden favourite Dinozzo after racing two lengths off the leader on a track that looked to be favouring closers especially on the outside. Picks up 3 points for a total of 95, hopefully he can draw in to a 95-75 Class 2 instead of the 100-80 like he did in here.

Race 7 #1 Lucky Bubbles: In one word ‘Disaster’ is how Purton responded after the run. Broke well enough into a good position off the leaders on the rail but when Chadwick decided to slow everything down he was forced to check up then became rank for the next 200 metres, later when trying to force his way into a hole had to be taken up again when Dashing Fellow came over onto him at the 300 mark, finished up under a hand ride on the rail while Mr Stunning was running away for his easy check.

Race 7 #9 D B Pin: Is a real game runner, gives an honest run every time even though he’s probably in a little out of his weight class. Was taken back out of the duel entering the turn but then was forced to alter his course after Peniaphobia slow everything up, then was stuck behind a wall entering the stretch had a hole but looked like the hole was moving a little quicker than he was, wasn’t helped with Not Listenin’tome keep drifting in and out in front of him. Closed well to the wire when Not Listenin’tome finally threw in the anchor and gave him a clear lane to scoot thru, hopefully he’ll find an easier spot next out in a Class 1 or a lower Graded race.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

Speed Figures:
1st (199): 92
2nd (200): 96
3rd (201): 95
4th (202): 102
5th (203): 104
6th (204): -109
7th (205): 109 #
8th (206): 110
9th (207): 100
10th (208): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. November 22, 2017 Twenty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% rain Wind: N 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171122_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171122_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :9: Haymaker (4-1): Lifetime of 1 for 30, 1for 19 at the Valley and winless at this level, no thanks.

Race 4 :6: Golden Effort (4-1): It’s a lot to ask for a first time starter to break from the rail with the short turn soon after the break, if he doesn’t get out well he will be all caught up in the wash.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 098 (winners: 1st, 2nd & 4th)
Race 6 :2: Jade Theatre (7-1)

Race 147 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :6: Treasure Gold (7-1)
Race 1 :9: Haymaker (4-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :5: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 2 :5: Wealthy Fortune (21-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :12: Merrygowin (7-2)
Race 8 :5: Magnetism (13-1)

Key Play:
Race 2 :1: Proud Sky (10-1)
Race 7 :1: Super Fluke (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :5: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 5 :1: Amazing Feeling (14-1)
Race 8 :8: Go Go Win (13-1)


HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

[proximity]

today's picks for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :11: furious Pegasus :6:
race 2: :8: good fit ($184.50 w, $46.50 p)
race 3: :6: noble de love :11:
race 4: :4:ensuring ($14 p)
race 5: :2: dinozzo :4::11: ($31.50 w, $15.50 p, $85 quin, $35 Omni)
race 6: :4:gold mount :3:
race 7: :1:luck bubbles :3:
race 8: :8: horse of fortune :12::1::6:
race 9: :8: top beautiful :2: ($13.50 p, 23.50 Omni)
race 10: :7: jing jing win :1:

last time: (finally) strike big with good fit (184.50 win) and appear to be headed for a good day when dinozzo (31.50w) takes the fifth and I get a (very) rare quinella. the rest of the card's pretty much a disaster though. gold mount is outclassed, lucky bubbles gets in trouble about four times, horse of fortune gets jenny's blessing before burning huge late money, and top beautiful is outkicked by an 80-1 shot before jing jing win disappoints in the finale.

season: win 19/83 (0.93 roi) place 37/83 (0.78) quinella 4/106 (0.46) Omni 14/106 (0.80)

today's guesses for happy valley

key (contend)

race 1: :10: glory horsie :9::2:
race 2: :10: island flyer :7:
race 3: :7: the full bloom
race 4: pass race
race 5: :3:sichuan boss :8::12:
race 6: :8:sir redalot :7:
race 7: :4:simply brilliant :2::7:
race 8: :9:relentless me :6::8:

[Parkview_Pirate]

woodbinepmi, thanks for starting and maintaining the thread. I woke up early enough to play a few races from HV, but forgot to check your selections until the last race. Nice pick with the :5: at 11-1, and I also see you reeled in the winner of the 7th.

Keep up the good work.:ThmbUp:

[woodbinepmi]

Thank You Sir.

[proximity]

woodbinepmi, thanks for starting and maintaining the thread. I woke up early enough to play a few races from HV, but forgot to check your selections until the last race. Nice pick with the :5: at 11-1, and I also see you reeled in the winner of the 7th.

Keep up the good work.:ThmbUp:

yes, great thread woodbine!!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 22, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 071, 135 & 173

Notes for the day: The 7th race was an above average Class 3 race, while I will try and avoid anything out of the 3rd. In the first the short priced Haymaker ran his usual race, close but just not fast enough, he did have an excuse being checked in the stretch in a quickly run Class 5 race. Like in the first, the chalk in the second Le Panache had to be steadied with 300 meteres to go when Wealthy Fortune came in on him. I played against the first time starter on the rail for Shum Golden Effort, was hoping to see something from him to play him the next time out but he put in a real clunker and was pretty much eased the final 200 metres. In the 5th as good a ride as Mo gave on the winner, Poon was the opposite, he broke a little slow then rushed (panicked) him to the lead while going very wide in the first turn he was done by the stretch. In the sixth 3 riders: Berry, Schofield and Callan received 2 days each for their rides in the stretch, playing bumper cars isn’t allowed in Hong Kong, with the winner Sir Redalot going wide into the stretch and was lucky to avoid the mess. Unfortunately, it looks as if the days of Super Fluke being an A.T.M. machine are done, he’s finally picked up enough points to move into Class 2 where he’s going to find the going a little tougher than he may want. You couldn’t have gotten a better trip than what Leung gave on Magnetism in the finale.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #7 Diamond Master: Was lucky to draw the rail after drawing outside post lately, broke well and sat right off the leaders and was more full of run than what he’s been normally showing lately. Was making a move to the front at the 250 mark when Berry on Storm Signal came out and forced Lai to severely take up on him, he put the stick away and just let him gallop out afterwards.

Race 7 #4 Simply Brilliant: In his first race in Hong Kong drew a tough Class 3 event while being bet down to the 9-2 second choice. Sat around four lengths off the front runner on the backside, looked like he was going to get up at the 200 metre mark but was just a little short after not racing since his last race at Ascot in June. Was just beaten by a neck to Super Fluke in his third straight win, he picked up 3 rating points off that effort and will be allowed to run again in Class 3, look for him at Sha Tin next time.

Horses to avoid next out:
Anything out of Race 3 (211)

Speed Figures:
1st (209): 95 #
2nd (210): -92
3rd (211): 93
4th (212): 95
5th (213): -94 #
6th (214): 102
7th (215): 101
8th (216): 100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 26, 2017 Twenty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 74 degrees Cloudy 0% rain Wind: N 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 11.45pm ET, 8.45pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171126_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171126_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :8: Strathclyde (9-2): Even though he’s unbeaten on the dirt both those wins have been at a lower class than what he’s facing today, in his last he was aided by a severe front running bias and was all out to beat a class 4 longshot that didn’t get to his proper lead step in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *684 (winners: 1st, 4th, 8th and 11th)
Race 4 :7: Brilliant Dream (8-1)

Race 135 (winners: 1st & 9th, second: 3rd, 4th and 5th)
Race 3 :6: Dashing Gainer (58-1)
Race 10 :9: Right Call (17-1)

Race 143 (winners: 2nd and 3rd, second: 4th and 5th)
Race 9 :2: WinWin Ruby (25-1)
Race 10 :13: Art Of Raw (27-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 8 :3: Pingwu Spark (2-1)
Race 10 :9: Right Call (17-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :1: Pick Number One (2-1): First time starter that went off as the betting favourite and won with ease against a fairly decent Class 4 field while running a final speed figure 6 points faster than par. Engaged in a duel immediately out of the gate which lasted for 850 meteres until Beekley threw in the towel at the top of the lane and still held off the top 2 weights with ease. Picked up 8 rating points to a total of 60, which will keep him in Class 4 for another try carrying 133 pounds.

Race 2 :6: Better Choice(10-1): First time starter for So was totally cold on the board at 77-1. Was a step slow out of the gate, became a little rank on the backside then took Ng 3 wide in to the turn, then shifted to the 6 path for the run home had to shift slightly when Accession Years came into his path. Really took off at the 150 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders (Was hoping he would have stayed at Happy Valley).

Race 4 :10: Royal Elegance (6-1): Was very unlucky in the draw with the 13 post, broke with a little more action than usual and became rank soon afterwards when Pebble grabbed his head to take him back. Had to check up at the 650 mark when Har Har Heart started to want to get out, split two at the 250 spot and closed to within a head bob of the co-favourite, with his figure 2 points above par for Class 4.

Race 6 :7: Fifty Fifty (2-1): Went off as the 1.9-1 favourite, broke well from the 2 hole sat around three lengths back off the eventual longshot winner who was able to get a comfortable lead on a track that was favouring front runners most of the day. Was pinned in on the rail in the third flight entering the stretch, Teetan forced his way out and bumping Healthy Joy at the 280 metre mark (the move cost Teetan 2 racing days), when clear really started moving in the final 150 metres of the race only to lose out by a neck. (Ho chose to run him in Class 1 and get the weight allowance instead of going top weight in Class 2).

Race 9 :4: Ping Hai Star (5-2): Drew a very difficult field for his first try in Hong Kong for Size and Moreira while exiting out of the 14 hole. Of course with the connections was bet down to 7-2 as the second choice at the windows. Took a left turn out of the gate costing him his usual running style at the front that he had been showing in his barrier trials, raced at the rear in the 3 path was blocked for the early part of the stretch but forced his way clear at the 200 metre mark the same time the eventual winner favourite was making his winning move. Moreira put the stick away for the final 50 metres after not being able to close the distance on the winner while never getting to his proper lead step. Galloped out past the winner after the wire, should improve with a go under his belt in his next after only picking up 2 rating points up to a total of 74.

Race 9 :5: Cheerful Boy (24-1): A front running type, leaped out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths to the herd but more importantly has position as a leader. Entered the first turn climbing, and closed well in the stretch after saving ground and only given a couple crosses and a few love taps on his flank. Race came back a little quick for a Class 3 event.

Race 9 :8: Such A Happiness (25-1): Was bet down as the 7-2 favourite after moving up in class after a nice win, drew the rail in a full 14 horse field, raced mid-pack while saving ground, was full of run entering the stretch but was boxed in with no exit plan available, tried to avoid the tiring front runner but was bumped multiple times by Winston’s Lad. (Is coming off the vet's list from his last race with a lame right hind leg)

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :1: Call Me Awesome (18-1) Race 078
Race 6 :9: Jolly Jolly (21-1) Race 136

Key Plays:
Race 4 :10: Royal Elegance (6-1)
Race 9 :4: Ping Hai Star (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 10 :3: Home Run (15-1)


Lagniappe: Give the 7 points tomorrow to Toronto in The Grey Cup, Stamps have been waiting all year for this, should be a blowout.

[proximity]

today's guesses for happy valley ($10 hk prices)

key (contend)

race 1: :10: glory horsie :9::2:
race 2: :10: island flyer :7:
race 3: :7: the full bloom
race 4: pass race
race 5: :3:sichuan boss :8::12:
race 6: :8:sir redalot :7: ($38.50 win, $17 place)
race 7: :4:simply brilliant :2::7: ($22 p, $46.50 Omni)
race 8: :9:relentless me :6::8:

last time: the struggle continues with only sir redalot (38.50) getting under the line first. simply brilliant hits the place line.

season: win 20/90 (0.90) place 39/90 (0.76) quinella 4/116 (0.42) Omni 15/116 (0.77)

today's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: pass race
race 2: :1:pick number one :8:
race 3: :7:moment of power :5::12::1:
race 4: :10:royal elegance :3::2:
race 5: :1:star of yan oi :11::8:
race 6: :6:citron spirit :4::7:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:time to celebrate
race 9::6:more than lucky:7::4:
race 10: :14:conte :9::3:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 26, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: 107, 148 & 172

Notes for the day: Big favourite Super Missile (54) in the first had a little trouble at the break (watch list). Pick Number One (61) couldn’t repeat his maiden win on the dirt to the turf but still had a nice run, picked up the point from the handicappers which will send him up to Class 3, should be fine up there especially on the dirt. The fourth collapsed after the early pace and Sacred Ibis (62) was at the right place at the right time to take advantage of the situation paying $50.20. Strathclyde (69) showed more heart than I thought he had, just missing out while conceding 13 pounds to the 19-1 winner. After that race the day became very chalky, with Fifty Fifty (98) getting seven more points, that’s a total of 27 since his debut in Hong Kong last June, real deep water to come for him now. Both Pingwu Spark (97) and Premiere (104) outclassed their rivals, Morethanlucky (74) has an appropriate name what with holding off Ping Hai Star (77) who had all kinds of trouble in his trip, will give him another go next time out. Conte (69) toyed with his competition, he too should be climbing up the class ladder with runs like that, he still showed that he still has a few things to learn, switching leads late in the lane.

Horses to watch for list:
Race 1 #7 Super Missile (54): Was bet down as a huge favourite after his barrier trial when he ran with Mr. Stunning (130) and Beat The Clock (99), he stumbled out of the gate and was caught up in the middle of the pack, followed the eventual winner thru the heard showing nice composer for a first time starter, was asked only slightly by Purton near the wire, look for him to go a little further in his next race.

Race 6 #8 Exultant (93): In his second race at HKJC after he ran a game 5th only losing by 2 lengths after encountering trouble to Western Express (112) in his debut, caught another bear in Fifty Fifty (98). Was caught a little flat footed at the start sending him sideways into Romantic Touch, settled around seven lengths in the back by himself with a quick pace to run at, moved to the 6 path entering the stretch really took off at the 300 metre mark switched back to his wrong lead at the 170 mark but continued to close on the big favourite only to lose by a half-length, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Race 7 #4 House Of Fun (100): Off as the betting choice with Moreira on board, threw his head at the break costing him at least a length and a half to the pack, soon settled behind the leaders waiting for his opportunity to pounce but when Moreira moved him to the rail at the 200 metre mark he had to be slightly taken up while at the same time the winner Premiere was being asked to run by Teetan, House re-broke when clear and closed only to be beaten by the camera and was well clear of the field in the gallop out.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 5 #12 Borntoachieve (66): Was helped by a nice pace duel on the front end, Mo had to get to his bottom to catch the favourite Strathclyde (69) at the wire while getting 13 pound break in weight.

Speed Figures:
1stt (217): 96
2nd (218): +99 #
3rd (219): 99
4th (220): +98
5th (221): 101
6th (222): +104
7th (223): -104
8th (224): 102
9th (225): 101
10th (226): -103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 29, 2017 Twenty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171129_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171129_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :9: Premium Champion (4-1): Was pretty much eased in the last 150 metres and was quickly grabbed up after the wire, now he’s going 2200 metres and is only 3 for 35 lifetime in Hong Kong.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *780 (winners: 5th & 6th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :5: Hall Of Fame (28-1)

Race 107 (winners: 1st & 2nd, second: 3rd & 4th)
Race 6 :1: Flying Tourbillon (15-1)

Race 147 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 4 :6: Victory Duke (6-1)

Race 173 (winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :2: G-One Union ( 29-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :3: Good method (14-1)
Race 5 :3: House Of Luck (16-1)
Race 6 :9: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)
Race 7 :8: Happy Surveys (16-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 1 :7: Brilliant Monkeys (7-2): Had been away since June, he needed the break because his efforts before that were very uninspiring. After being bet down to 9-2 was bumped sideways at the break forcing him to the rear of the field, was in tight on the turn full of run while traveling in the 2 path. Moved out to the 5 lane entering the stretch and continued a nice move all the way to the wire but was unable to catch the lone speed winner, galloped out very nicely past the line.

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :9: Laughing Lord (30-1) Race 040
Race 8 :3: Land Grant (8-1) Race *750

Key Plays:
Race 1 :7: Brilliant Monkeys (7-2)
Race 4 :6: Victory Dude (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Numero Uno (10-1)
Race 6 :1: Flying Tourbillon (15-1)

[proximity]

today's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: pass race
race 2: :1:pick number one :8: (10.50 P, 24 omni)
race 3: :7:moment of power :5::12::1:
race 4: :10:royal elegance :3::2:
race 5: :1:star of yan oi :11::8:
race 6: :6:citron spirit :4::7: (21 p, 39.50 omni)
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:time to celebrate (11 p)
race 9::6:more than lucky:7::4: (16.50 w, 10.50 p, 29.50 q, 17 omni)
race 10: :14:conte :9::3: (15.50 w, 11.50 p)

last time: the struggle continues. more than lucky and conte finally get home first in the last two races but at odds on prices. i get a quinella but it only pays a pathetic 29.50.

season: win 22/98 (0.86 roi) place 44/98 (0.77 roi) quinella 5/130 (0.39 roi) omni 18/130 (0.75 roi)

guesses for happy valley:

race 1: :7: brilliant monkeys :6:
race 2: :4:glorious legacy :9::2::3:
race 3: :11: fruitful life :8::10::9:
race 4: :8:seven luck :4:
race 5: :8:confucius spirit :5::9::4:
race 6: :7: master albert
race 7: :12: enreaching :2:
race 8: :10: easy hedge :4::3:

cliffs notes: toss all the lor horses. ;)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 29, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Pretty much an ordinary day at the races for the twenty-sixth race meet. In the first the pace was so slow that the final figure came back 20 points below par, so it was adjusted to a 89#, it seems to fall in line with how most of the runners have performed in their past in situations like this. Unlike the first, the second was quick for its class (there were separated variants between sprints and routes with the first excluded), very good effort by Good Choice Ahead (42) running a game third in a fast race after encountering trouble. Cheerfuljet (56) picked up 8 points beating a real bad field of Class 4 runners, when the top weight is only at 126 pounds you are not looking at the best of that class. It was a rating of 60-40, a first time starter Happy Warrior drew the top at 52. Mega Heart (79) might have made the watch list but was scoped after the race and was found to have bled badly, was very rank for a large portion of the race while going wide and was wrapped up early in the stretch. May want to look closely at Sharp Sailor (76) next time out, chased King Of Mongolia (72) who was allowed to get an easy slow lead, still almost caught the winner.

F.Y.I.: Next Wednesday will be the Longines International Jockey Championship, the American representative will be Flavien Prat (He’s French right?, oh well Allez Flavien).

Horse to watch for list:
None

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #12 Golden Cannon (27): Was winner of the odd run first race.

Speed Figures:
1st ( 227): -89#
2nd (228): 100
3rd (229): 96
4th (230): 90
5th (231): 98
6th (232): 98
7th (233): 100
8th (234): -100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[proximity]

guesses for happy valley: ($10 hk prices)

race 1: :7: brilliant monkeys :6:
race 2: :4:glorious legacy :9::2::3:
race 3: :11: fruitful life :8::10::9:
race 4: :8:seven luck :4: (13.50 place)
race 5: :8:confucius spirit :5::9::4:
race 6: :7: master albert ($14.50 place)
race 7: :12: enreaching :2:
race 8: :10: easy hedge :4::3: ($17 place, $47 Omni)


last time: reel in a $47 Omni in the finale, but another lousy day as our boat begins to drift away from the docks.

season: win 22/106 (0.80) place 47/106 (0.75) quinella 5/144 (0.36) Omni 19/144 (0.710

today's guesses for sha tin:

race 1: :9: the champ :11:
race 2: :1: sun touch :11:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :12: happy friendship :3:
race 5: :4: bond elegance
race 6: :7: dollar reward
race 7: pass race
race 8: :11: five stars agent :4:
race 9: :3: limitless :7:
race 10: :7: calculation :5:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 3, 2017 Twenty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 75 degrees Clear 0% of rain Wind: N 5 to 10mph (headwind in the stretch).

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171203_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171203_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 172 (winners: 2nd, 3rd & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 9 :9: Fight Hero (12-1)

Race 173 (winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 4 :3: Rock The Tree (15-1)
Race 4 :4: Jimson The Famous (41-1)
Race 4 :11: Best Jade Triumph (18-1)
Race 4 :14: My Folks (27-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 :4: Hot King Prawn (8-5)
Race 10 :7: Calculation (11-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :2: Gallant Return(5-1): In his second lifetime try where he had run a game second to Fantastic Show in a Griffin race last September. Drew the 9 hole and the services of Mr. Purton who took him straight to the back in order to save as much ground as possible all while the eventual winner was loose on the lead. He then became a little rank half-way down the backside, moved well in the stretch gaining on the leader while racing in traffic like a veteran, Zach only went to the stick 3 times in the final 70 metres. Should be sitting on a win if he can get a little more pace, didn’t pick up any rating points to stay at 59 and stay in Class 4.

Race 9 :2: House Of Fun (6-1): Off as the betting choice with Moreira on board, threw his head at the break costing him at least a length and a half to the pack, soon settled behind the leaders waiting for his opportunity to pounce but when Moreira moved him to the rail at the 200 metre mark he had to be slightly taken up while at the same time the winner Premiere was being asked to run by Teetan, House re-broke when clear and closed only to be beaten by the camera and was well clear of the field in the gallop out.

Race 9 :4: Classic Emperor (8-1): Ran one of the most impressive races of the season so far, in his first try on the dirt defeating a big favourite in Divine Boy by almost 7 lengths who beat the third place runner by 2 lengths himself. Picked up a whopping 11 points off the effort, hopefully So will keep him on the dirt from now on.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :4: Willie Way (4-1) Race 099

Key Play:
Race 3 :2: Gallant Return (5-1)
Race 10 :4: Super Hoppy (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 6 :8: Turin Pearl (9-1)
Race 7 :12: Encore Boy (9-1)

[kevb]

No HK racing on Xpressbet today. ??

[lamboguy]

No HK racing on Xpressbet today. ??i got an email from them stating that they are still negotiating a contract and that they will not carry HK until they get it done

[olddaddy]

Hope things are straighten out by next week, which is HKs big racing day.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 3, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None on both Dirt and Turf
Key Races: 186 and 239

Notes for the day: The tracks looked at first glance to be favouring speed but after a careful look over I decided that it was playing more equal than rewarding horses something that actually wasn’t there. In the first the Runner-up Actuariat (36) ran a game race only losing by a half-length after Deleuze dropped his stick at the top of the stretch, also in that race Snowhooves (23) was totally blocked in the lane and was never able to fully extend himself, all the while with a loose front plate. Will play Gallant Return (60) again in Class 4 after running into some interference, and he caught a couple real nice runners in Sparkling Dragon (66) and Win Beauty Win (62), both of those graded out of Class 4. Hot King Pawn (89) picked up 12 points after his easy win, while drawing away without ever being asked by Zach with a speed figure coming back high enough to compete with Class 1 runners. House Of Fun (103) looked the winner in the ninth only to be caught at the wire by the longshot Fight Hero (93) who came out of Race 172, which now makes 4 winners and 2 seconds out of that single race. Have no explanation on Super Hoppy’s (74) performance in the 9th, it is two races in a row that he has been unable to get to his proper lead foot in the stretch, may be a sign of issues there.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #3 Turf Sprint (79): He doesn’t have the best record on the backside but does look to be rounding into top form and after running second to Hot King Prawn (89) may be sitting on it now. Beat the rest of the field with ease being 2 ¾ lengths in front of the third place runner. Figure came back a 102 which is almost a full length fast than par for Class 3 races.

Race 10 #13 C P Power (62): Broke at least a couple lengths behind the field at the start, on the positive side though it allowed him to settle in on the rail and save ground in the turn, BUT it would have ramifications in the end. Looked full of run in the turn but was caught all up in it with nowhere to go in the stretch, did show some run at the end while being passed on the far outside by the deep closer Diamond Dragon (68) who payed $ 70.60 to win.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Sparkling Dragon (66): Was able to get an easy lead and hold off a couple nice horses in Gallant Return (60) and Win Beauty Win (62) but Sam had to really get into him all the way down the lane and with him not getting to his proper lead, that may get up and bite him against Class 3 runners next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (235): 94
2nd (236): +99#
3rd (237): 95
4th (238): -93
5th (239): 96
6th (240): -97
7th (241): 108
8th (242): +96
9th (243): 104
10th (244): 101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I.: Wednesday’s races will start a little earlier than normal with the Jockeys’ Challenge there will be 9 races instead of the normal 8, also will have an open thread next Friday night for the Hong Kong International Races, so join in.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 6, 2017 Twenty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 5.30am ET, 2.30 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171206_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171206_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :2: Yourthewonforme (2-1): Is 0 for 25 in his lifetime at the downtown track, did just get up at Sha Tin beating a 44-1 Actuariat who had a tougher trip going three wide in the turn without cover.

Race 5 :4: Exceptional Desire (4-1): He’s a luke warm favourite at the time of this writing, he had things go his way last time breaking from the rail as the 9/5 favourite but was caught by two rivals that were conceding 17 and 24 pounds to him, the thing that alarmed me was his gallop out or the lack of one, was grabbed pretty quickly soon after the wire by Purton.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *801 (winners: 2nd & 7th, second: 1st)
Race 4 :8: Garlic Yeah (17-1)

Race 093 (winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 7 :10: Mi Blanco (24-1)

Race 098 (winners: 1st, 2nd & 4th)
Race 3 :10: Glorious Partners (33-1)

Race 148 (winners: 5th & 6th, second: 3rd)
Race 2 :9: Sharpmind (8-1)

Race 186 (winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 3 :9: Back In Black (29-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :7: Fairy Twins (9-1)
Race 7 :1: Wah May Baby (14-1)
Race 8 :12: Happy Journey (30-1)
Race 9 :8: Lucky Girl (6-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :1: Breeders’ Star (22-1): Leaped at the break costing him at least a couple lengths to the field, settled at the rear of the field 7 lengths behind the two front runners who would eventually finish first and second. Responded well from the stick when asked by Callan, had to slightly adjust his path at the 70 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders at the wire, galloped out well.

Race 5 :1: Jolly Bountiful (9-2): He wasn’t slow out of the gate while breaking on the rail with Moreira on board but wasn’t all that quick afterwards, settled mid-pack in the fourth flight, became a little rank at the 650 metre mark when he was ready to run but was pinned in with nowhere to go. Started closing in on the leaders and looked the winner ready to split the runners in front of him but as soon as he stuck his nose in there he shied out of it forcing Moreira to take him around all the while the winner Our Folks was making his winning move.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :4: Ambitious Heart (6-1) Race 093
Race 8 :9: Super Form (3-1) Race 126


Key Plays:
Race 2 :4: Ambitious Heart (6-1)
Race 8 :9: Super Form (3-1)


Longshots:
Race 4 :6: Super Clan (10-1)
Race 7 :5: Bo Duke (24-1)

[proximity]

F.Y.I.: Wednesday’s races will start a little earlier than normal with the Jockeys’ Challenge there will be 9 races instead of the normal 8, also will have an open thread next Friday night for the Hong Kong International Races, so join in.

i think i like pierre boudot to win so you can all throw him out. :)

[kevb]

Still no betting available at Xpressbet. 12/6/17
:confused:

[proximity]

today's guesses for sha tin:

race 1: :9: the champ :11:
race 2: :1: sun touch :11:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :12: happy friendship :3:
race 5: :4: bond elegance ($12.00 place)
race 6: :7: dollar reward ($32.50 place)
race 7: pass race
race 8: :11: five stars agent :4:
race 9: :3: limitless :7:
race 10: :7: calculation :5: ($24.50 place)

last time: another 0-8 day in the win market after calculation is gunned down on the wire by last to first longshot diamond dragon. bond elegance and dollar reward also place but it's way too little.

season::puke: w 22/114 (0.74) p 50/114 (0.76) q 5/150 (0.34) om 19/150 (0.68)

longines international jockey championship guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :2::6:
race 2: :3:
race 3: :8::7::3:
race 4: :9::4:
race 5: :4:
race 6: :7::8::9:
race 7: :12:
race 8: :6:
race 9: :8::1:

international champion: pierre boudot

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 6, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: You couldn’t have asked for better trips than what Moreira got in his first two races, winning on both Yourthewonforme (46) and Infinity Endeavour (66), and in the second Ambitious Heart (54) fought Whyte as much as me and my brother did the francophones on our street growing up. As good a ride as Boudot gave in the 8th on Bank On Red (77) he gave an equally bad ride on Bo Duke in the 7th, tried the backside move made popular by Whyte when he was king of the jockey colony, the only problem is he didn’t take the lead, ran to right off the front runners then grabbed him and when he needed to accelerate again there was nothing left in the tank. Marvel Hero (100) may have won the 9th but just refused to go thru a hole at the rail at the 250 mark, when he finally did made a huge run to the winner, picked up 2 points which will keep him in Class 2 for his next race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #8 Money Boy (69): Is now only 1 for 20 in his Hong Kong record for Size, but does seem to prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin. Was rubbed on immediately out of the gate and was in a great position waiting right behind the front runners heading into the turn, when he entered the stretch he carried himself out a little more than Moreira wanted and allowed General Iron (71) to get up under him and put Money Boy in a box having to wait for room, at the 180 mark Moreira shifted out and closed well only to lose by a short head to a 45-1 winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 #10 Peace Combination (51): Will pick up around 5 to 6 pounds in his next race after getting a perfect trip and winning a Class 4 race in a slower than average time.

Speed Figures:
1st (245): 96#
2nd (246): 98
3rd (247): 101
4th (248): 97
5th (249): 94
6th (250): 100
7th (251): 95
8th (252): -100
9th (253): -104


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 10, 2017 Twenty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees and sunny 0% chance of rain Wind: NNW 5mph.

Post time: 11.25pm ET, 8.25pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171210_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171210_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 080 (winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 3rd & 7th)
Race 7 :3: Contentment (26-1)

Race 135 (winners: 1st & 9th, second: 3rd, 4th & 5th)
Race 6 :14: Lucky Dollar (7-1)

Race 172 (winners: 2nd, 3rd, 13th & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 10 :9: Rise High (9-1)

Race 186 (winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 2 :7: Winston’s Lad (17-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :2: Victory Boys (9-1)
Race 1 :5: King Of Mongolia (19-1)
Race 3 :1: Dashing Fellow (28-1)
Race 6 :4: Blocker Dee (43-1)
Race 10 :8: Dr Listening (37-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :5: Simply Brilliant (5-2): In his first race in Hong Kong drew a tough Class 3 event while being bet down to the 9-2 second choice. Sat around four lengths off the front runner on the backside, looked like he was going to get up at the 200 metre mark but was just a little short after not racing since his last race at Ascot in June. Was just beaten by a neck to Super Fluke in his third straight win, he picked up 3 rating points off that effort and will be allowed to run again in Class 3, look for him at Sha Tin next time.

Race 5 :2: Lucky Bubbles (7-2): In one word ‘Disaster’ is how Purton responded after the run. Broke well enough into a good position off the leaders on the rail but when Chadwick decided to slow everything down he was forced to check up then became rank for the next 200 metres, later when trying to force his way into a hole had to be taken up again when Dashing Fellow came over onto him at the 300 mark, finished up under a hand ride on the rail while Mr Stunning was running away for his easy check.

Race 5 :10: D B Pin: Is a real game runner, gives an honest run every time even though he’s probably in a little out of his weight class. Was taken back out of the duel entering the turn but then was forced to alter his course after Peniaphobia slow everything up, then was stuck behind a wall entering the stretch had a hole but looked like the hole was moving a little quicker than he was, wasn’t helped with Not Listenin’tome keep drifting in and out in front of him. Closed well to the wire when Not Listenin’tome finally threw in the anchor and gave him a clear lane to scoot thru, hopefully he’ll find an easier spot next out in a Class 1 or a lower Graded race. (Well that didn’t happen, throwing him into the lion’s den again).

Past watch list runners:
Race 7 :11: Sichuan Dar (29-1) Race 153

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Simply Brilliant (5-2)
Race 5 :2: Lucky Bubbles (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Winston’s Lad (17-1)
Race 3 :9: Southern Legend (22-1)
Race 9 :6: Affluence Start (12-1)
Race 9 :9: Diamond King (13-1)

Will be running a live chat during the races tonight, so join in.

[Hong Kong Turf]

Long post here, but see below for detailed Hong Kong Turf analysis of tonights HKIR:

Summary Selections:

Race 4: Longines Hong Kong Vase – 2400M (1 ½ Miles): #1 Highland Reel (Best Bet), #2 Talismanic, #12 Kiseki, #3 Tiberian

Race 5: Longines Hong Kong Sprint – 1200M (6 Furlongs): #2 Lucky Bubbles, #9 Blizzard, #1 Mr. Stunning, #11 Stormy Liberal

Race 7: Longines Hong Kong Mile – 1600M (1 Mile): #7 Seasons Bloom, #14 Roly Poly, #10 Beauty Generation, #2 Helene Paragon

Race 8: Longines Hong Kong Cup – 2000M (1 1/4 Miles): #4 Werther, #3 Poet’s Word, #2 Neorealism, #9 Time Warp



Detailed Analysis:

Race 4: Longines Hong Kong Vase – 2400M (1 ½ Miles)



#1 Highland Reel seemingly walks off the plane anywhere in the world ready to run. He won this race in 2015 over Flintshire, and arguably ran an even sharper race here last year when he was nipped in the final 50 yards by Satono Crown, 6 lengths clear of 3rd. Highland Reel disappointed somewhat when beaten on the square by Talismanic in the Breeders Cup Turf as the favorite, but he never looked comfortable early that day. The feeling is he can improve off that effort here, likely with a comfortable trip on the front end. If he shows up with one of his better efforts, his elite form is simply too good for this field, (including Talismanic). 2/1 looks like value – best bet of the HKIR.

#2 Talismanic needs no introduction, coming here off a score in the Breeders Cup Turf in a mild upset for Godolophin. The horse with the distinctive white face is tough to knock off that peak effort and an obvious true contender, but it’s worth considering that he was not quite a top class runner this year in Europe, with the BC representing his 1st and only Group 1 win. While he won convincingly, he received a great trip in that race. That said, he appears to be peaking at the right time for this, and may be the “now” horse. Main threat.

#12 Kiseki is a lightly raced Japanese 3 year old who may be getting better with each race. He enters here off a convincing win in the Japanese St Leger over 1 7/8 M on soft turf. He gets the acid test here, but may well be this good, and the 5 lb allowance from the older runners is not insignificant. One key cause for pause, however, is that he showed symptoms of ringworm upon arrival in Hong Kong. Experts seem to feel it should have little to no impact on his performance, but anything to impact the preparation and routine coming into a race of this caliber demands a downgrade.

#3 Tiberian is being forgotten in the early betting, but has done little wrong this year in a campaign with 4 wins, including 2 wins over Talismanic. Throw out the Melbourne Cup (2 miles vs. 22 rivals), and the form comes into sharper focus. He’s another strong stayer who looks to be peaking, and can help create some value the exotics at a big price.





Race 5: Longines Hong Kong Sprint – 1200M (6 Furlongs)



#2 Lucky Bubbles was favored over Mr. Stunning in both of their prep races coming into this. The race 2-back was a fine 2nd off of a layoff, but last time out, he endured a nightmarish trip with an indecisive ride. That race is a clear toss out – look beyond it and you have a G1 winner in Hong Kong who is always right on the line. Big player here.

#9 Blizzard lacks the resume of some of the top players in here, but has run races that look good enough based on speed figures. He appears to be in top form, finishing a solid 2nd in one of the better races of the season 2-back, in a race where he may not have been fully cranked. He then followed that up with a close 5th place finish in Japan. His recent trial showed that he remains on his toes, and is a legit player as a huge overlay in this race.

#1 Mr. Stunning – Most of the Hong Kong runners here are exiting the same sequence of prep races, both won well by Mr. Stunning. He has a great draw and is very logical and a huge threat here. Hong Kong’s highest rated horse would be no surprise, but his room for error is limited, and the current odds of 3-5 are just too short.

#11 Stormy Liberal, whose connections have been deeply impacted by the tragedy in San Luis Rey will be a sentimental rooting interest. While he was a big longshot, he ran a huge race to capture the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint over the likes of Marsha and Lady Aurelia. Americans have never really fired here, and it’s fair to question whether he can run another peak effort halfway around the world off 5 weeks rest. That said, he’s at the top of his game and will go to the post at odds of greater than 40-1.





Race 7: Longines Hong Kong Mile – 1600M (1 Mile)



In a race lacking a true international standout, #7 Seasons Bloom is in the best form of the Hong Kong contingent. He kicked off the season in raging fashion with a big win in a tough Class 1 over 1200, before a 2nd place finish over 1400M, then a solid win over several of his challengers over the mile in his final prep. Top rider Joao Moreira sticks, and he looks like the one they’ll need to hold off in the lane.

Don’t sleep on #14, Roly Poly, a 3YO filly. Currently 40/1 in the betting, Roly Poly was a popular “wise guy” play in the Breeder’s Cup Mile. She disappointed that day, uncharacteristically far back in the field, but this is a softer spot, and this miss is a multiple Group 1 winner this year for Aiden O’Brien. She received a very wide draw in the 14 gate, and that has bettors essentially writing off her chances entirely. Given the set-up, expect Jamie Heffernan to try to use her speed to clear the field. Keep in mind that it is a long run down the backstretch going a mile at Sha Tin, and ground loss is not a guarantee. With a clean getaway, she’ll take some catching, and could blow up the exotics.

#10 Beauty Generation is another local in sharp current form. With a thinner local resume than some of this rivals in here, he has made the most of his strong tactical speed and grit in the stretch to take 2 of the 3 keep preps coming into this. He seems to have blossomed on the cutback to the middle distances this season and isn’t going down without a fight. A win would be tremendous for local rider Derek Leung who has been a roll this season.

#2 Helene Paragon was a narrow 2nd in this last season, and followed up the effort with a pair of G1 wins over the winter, before the form began to tail off in the spring. The last race, however, may signal that he is back on track, as he was ½ length behind Seasons Bloom under a 5 lb penalty. He is the “1st string” runner for the John Moore barn, and his best would make him tough.





Race 8: Longines Hong Kong Cup – 2000M (1 1/4 Miles)



#4 Werther has repeatedly run huge in Hong Kong’s international events, and has stamped himself as the top classic distance horse on the grounds. The prep path coming up to this has gone off without a hitch, and things are coming together for him to win his biggest prize yet for John Moore. He won his final prep in fast time over a stubborn Time Warp like a horse who will be better for the effort; afterwards, John Moore commented that Werther was about 80% cranked. Looking for him to fire a top effort here and mow them down late.

#3 Poet’s Word put together a solid campaign in Europe this year for Sir Michael Stoute, and comes into this on a high note off a pair of rock solid 2nd place finishes in the Irish and UK Champions Stakes over the same distance. The wide gate is a bit of a concern, but he has never been better, and is slipping under the radar in the early betting.

#2 Neorealism is a tricky horse to evaluate. He won the QE2 here in the spring, when Joao Moreira made a perfectly timed early move into a bizarrely slow pace. The back class is there as well, as he has multiple top class wins in Japan. Current form is a question mark, however, as he enters off a dull effort in the Tenno Sho in Japan – was that just a prep, or a signal of declining form? Noriyuki Hori has won a ridiculous 5 of his last 7 races entered in Hong Kong, and Joao Moreira again takes the mount. Can’t ignore.

#9 Time Warp has been on an absolute tear since last June, as he progressed from Class 2 to giving Werther all he could handle in the run up to the HKIR. Though he hasn’t won yet this season, he has proven he belongs here with a 2 heart breaking second place finishes. He brings a high level of tactical speed, and encouragingly showed a rating dimension last out when a pace setter put him in a difficult tactical spot. That last effort also dispelled any doubts that he wants this distance. Could see him potentially carrying his speed all the way with a perfect trip, but has a big place chance at the minimum.

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Hi there Michael! I thought I might just join you for this one card.

This is one of the best race cards of this meet, and looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 10 big races on the Turf. 4 Grade 1’s, 1 Class1, 2 Class2, and 3 Class3.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:25 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ll won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections are ALL be based on a static tote analysis. The Live selections will all be based the Live tote analysis.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. The Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1800M C3 (9F)T…..1-3-10 W/ 2-6-8 ….….11:25 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#2 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…... 5-3-2 W/ 10-11-6 ……11:55 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#3 - 1400M C1 (7F)T….....6-2-1 W/ 3-9 ..............12:30 AM EST

R#4 - 2400M G1 (12F)T…...1-2-12 W/ 9-6-8 ….....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#5 - 1200M G1 (6F)T.……1-2-4 W/ 5-9-3 …......1:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#6 - 1200M C2 (6F)T….....5-3-10 W/ 1-11-7 ……2:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#7 – 1600M G1 (8F)T…....2-1-7 W/ 3-13-10 .........2:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 2000M G1 (10F)T……4-2-1 W/ 3-5-8 ………3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.…….2-3-6 W/ 5-1-11 ….…...4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T.......4-2-6 W/ 12-9-13 ……...4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 10, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day:
It looked like there may have been a bias to front runners but most of the races that were won on the lead were done by favourites who had figured or runners that were allowed to set a slow pace. The variant was pretty easy to set except for the Highland Reel’s win going a marathon distance which wasn’t used in it and in the final where the pace was set at a pedestrian time. Son of Frankel Simply Brilliant (78) looked to have hung a little mid-stretch but closed well after Rawiller got his attention back on the game, just missed out by a head to Key Witness (85) who will be heading back to Class 2 after that effort. Southern Legend (106) took full advantage of the trip Nothingilikemore (112) getting in trouble early then forced wide entering the stretch. Mr Stunning (130) ran a new lifetime figure of 114 topping his 113 he ran last meet in the Sprint Cup GII, thought he might have caught with D B Pin (127) in the stretch, that effort by D B may have taken a little too much out of him though, will probably play against him next time out (depending on the odds of course). Lockheed (88) gave a decent run after being pounded at the windows going off at 8-5, he’s a real nice looking grey colt. A very nice rides by Leung on Beauty Generation (126) and Purton on Time Warp (126) getting them to the front and putting their runners to sleep while running and having plenty left in the tank when the alarm bells went off. As good a ride as Purton gave in the HK Cup it was nothing compared to what he did on Spicy Sure (87) in the 9th, sat right off Bowman on Calculation (79) when they straightened up in the stretch he pulled right up to Bowman without him noticing and put him right into the rear of a tiring Affluent Star (72) stopping his momentum and allowing Purton a free run to the wire without any competition. Give Rattan (85) an excuse in this run, was forced to chase a loose Time To Celebrate (89) that was allowed to set a very slow pace, Rattan looked to have hesitated when he needed to get through a hole, but closed well when room became available.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 #4 Dundonnell (109): In his first race since running in Dubai caught a real nice field for his return. Broke extremely slow out of the gate conceding at least two lengths to the field, was a little rank on the backside, looked full of run entering the stretch while being blocked found room at the 280 mark and pretty much ran evenly afterwards, nice effort for being off since last March in the desert. Hopefully Lor will keep him in this class and not raise him back in the Graded ranks again, has spent most of his career in over his head.

Race 6 #11 Jing Jing Win (84): Was very unlucky at the draw getting the outside post 14 in the short run to the turn going 1200, broke well enough and was taken back by Purton to try and save as much ground as possible. Became rank or had to check up heading into the turn (kind of hard to tell which on the replays), then began climbing in the turn going 2 wide moved to the 6 path in the straighten up finished well only to get beat by a length to Wah May Friend (104) who had just dropped down from a Class 1 race where he had lost by a nose to Western Express (122).

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Key Witness (85): Will be heading back up to Class 2 after winning this Class 3 in a slow time for even that class, he didn’t gallop out all that well after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (254): 101
2nd (255): 98
3rd (256): 107
4th (257): 116#
5th (258): 114
6th (259): 102
7th (260): +110
8th (261): -107
9th (262): 100
10th (263): -101#

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 13, 2017 Thirtieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 64 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15 am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171213_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171213_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :10: Midnite Promise (2-1): Was a very disappointing favourite in his last running 8th beaten 3 lengths, he was never asked and after watching the race again I couldn’t find an excuse for the bad run. After winning only once in 33 tries I will hope he runs another race like he did in his last at 2-1 and try and beat him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *792 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 2 :4: Gracious Ryder (7-1)

Race 022 (Winners: 6th, 7th & 10th)
Race 3 :8: Striking Star (32-1)

Race 173 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :10: Le Pegase (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 6 :10: Right Call (16-1)
Race 8 :11: Energetic Class (22-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :6: Diamond Master: Was lucky to draw the rail after drawing outside post lately, broke well and sat right off the leaders and was more full of run than what he’s been normally showing lately. Was making a move to the front at the 250 mark when Berry on Storm Signal came out and forced Lai to severely take up on him, he put the stick away and just let him gallop out afterwards. (My luck he draws the outside post again.)

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 2 :7: Clear Choice (16-1)
Race 8 :1: California Fortune (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :10: Le Pegase (9-1)
Race 5 :12: Five Stars Agent (11-1)
Race 6 :7: Ho Ho Feel (16-1)
Race 7 :1: Dr Win Win (12-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *761, 128 and 216

Notes for the day:
In the 3rd Golden Glory (46) ran a figure strong enough to be able to compete and even win if he gets lucky and draws a weaker Class 4 field, especially if Poon stays on with the 7 pound weight which will put him in around 113. In that race Trendiful (32) was bounced around like a tennis ball for the first 100 metres of the race, not a bad effort finishing third against a runaway winner after all that, also Haymaker (37) spotted the field about four lengths at the break and then had to run 3 wide finished pretty evenly in the stretch, would put him on the watch list but he’s a little too inconsistent runner. In the 4th Speedy Wally (55) looked uninterested in running, was extremely rank for the first half of the race, so you probably can put a line thru it. Couldn’t find an excuse for Polymer Luck (52) in the firth, he usually gives an honest effort but not today, he is looking more and more like a runner who has no intentions of winning unless it is given to him. Moreira’s ride in the 6th Pretty Bauhinia (67) was moving into contention when he had to be slightly steadied at the 200 mark when Land Grant (73) started to tire and came into his path, Moreira had to move to the outside of the eventual winner but was unable to catch him at the wire under a hand ride. An excellent ride by the Brazilian in the 7th getting Mister Monte (72) to the lead and coast around for a big effort, should have no problem repeating that effort next time in Class 3 unless he draws another speed-baller like California Fortune (77) drew with Burst Away (64) in the 8th. Whyte put Chadwick in a speed duel and California Fortune wants no part of that, Hair Trigger (66) was bumped and squeezed back at the break and then was 3 wide afterwards so give him a closer look next race. On a personal note, tough beat for our only watch horse of the day Diamond Master (68) losing by a half a length in the last at 49-1.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #7 Ho Ho Feel (68): Won two races back going 1800 metres at the Valley and then came back with a decent effort after having a little trouble at the break at Sha Tin going two turns which is probably a little too far for him to go. Drew the 11 post with the short run to the first turn, took a nice leap out of the gate at the start conceding at least a length to the field, it really didn’t compromise his running position though what with him being a dead closer. Was unable to find the rail in the first turn so raced 3 wide because Leung on Chater Legend wasn’t allowed to move over himself, made a slight move going up the hill on the backside heading into the turn for home, had a slight change of course at the 250 metre mark, lacked the ample kick home to catch the easy winner.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 6 #12 Winning Faith (67): Won a slow Class 3 race after his main rival ran into traffic problems, picked up 6 points off the effort which will put him at 121 pounds next out.


Speed Figures:
1st (264): -92
2nd (265): 95
3rd (266): 96
4th (267): -95 ?
5th (268): 97
6th (269): -97
7th (270): 104
8th (271): 97

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 17, 2017 Thirty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Overcast 0% of rain Wind: N 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171217_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171217_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :3: Proud Sky (9-5): Playing against a trainer that is 4 for 146 for the season so far on a horse that is short only for the sole purpose that Moreira picked up the mount.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 158 (Winners: 5th & 10th, second: 1st & 3rd)
Race 9 :12: Endearing (13-1)

Race 186 (Winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 5 :7: Young Legend (9-2)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 9 :10: Relentless Me (18-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :6: Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 8 :6: Green Energy (28-1)
Race 10 :2: Pingwu Spark (7-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 :10: Cheer Win (10-1)
Race 6 :13: Royale Elegance (9-1)
Race 8 :5: Ping Hai Star (3-5)
Race 8 :13: Such A Happiness (22-1)
Race 9 :11: Pick Number One (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 7 :1: Agree (5-1)
Race 10 :2: Pingwu Spark (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :1: Amritsaria (11-1)
Race 5 :10: Cheer Win (10-1)
Race 9 :12: Endearing (13-1)
Race 10 :5: Big Bang Bong (19-1)
Race 10 :10: World Record (26-1)

[proximity]

tonight's guesses:

race 2: :11:spicey double :3:
race 4: :5:lucky time :7:
race 7: :6:dashing dart
race 9: :2:jade theatre :11::3:

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 17, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Turf: Off the pace… Dirt: Speed
Key Races: 184 & 185

Notes for the day:
Impressive win by the first time starter Lean Perfection (59) after breaking a little slow then fighting his way thru the field in the straight, should improve when he gets to go longer. In that same race look for Gouten Of Garo (51) to get an equipment change to blinkers or a ring bit, was turning his head for half the race. Audacity (39) ran a very game race running near the front fighting the bias in a fast early pace and still was only defeated by a half-length to Proud Sky (43). First time starter in the fourth for freedman Aashiqui (52) was unfortunate to draw the rail in his debut and ran very rank early and then green in the lane, was not asked at all, watch how the tote board treats him the next time out, will have to run in another barrier trial before racing again by orders of the stewards. Massive win by Easy Go Easy Win (81) in picking up 9 rating points off that effort, outrun a nice horse in Amazing Star (62) with ease, watch for the first one to run and it may give us an idea on how strong the other is. Good For You (58) was looking like he was about to peak into form off his out in Race 220 but was rank and then blocked in the stretch, but still finished well in a quick Class 4 race. In the other Class 4 race Indigenous Star (49) was doomed at the draw getting the 13 hole, was rank while going wide in the turn a very excusable reason in where he finished, look closely at him if Moreira stays on and he gets a better gate. Hopefully Shum keeps Pick Number One (69) on the dirt, may be the fastest dirt horse on the backside right now on the AWT. If you didn’t see the last go back and watch it, Pingwu Spark (103) looked all but beat stuck in on the rail half-way thru the stretch but forced his way out and exploded to the wire while knocking Eastern Express (96) sideways causing Leung two racing days, going to see how he runs against Class 1 runners next time before I play him again but he should be able to compete eventually.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #10 Noble Steed (60): In his second career race after he had closed to run a good third behind Sparkling Dragon (66) in his debut. In here was bounced around at the start nothing to compromise his race but still enough that it will sometimes affect young runners to take their minds off the issue, but it didn’t seem to bother him. Settled mid-pack chasing a front runner who eventually was eased in the lane, was in tight three wide entering the stretch and quickly accelerated when asked by Prebble and drew away from a nice Class 4 field under a hand ride with his ears picked straight up. Picked up 8 points which will allow him to run again in Class 4 and the extra 8 pounds shouldn’t be an issue.

Race 10 #4 Good Standing (90): In his first try in Hong Kong after winning three races in his homeland of Australia, picked up the services of Mr. Purton but was unlucky in drawing the big (literally 1330 lbs.) Pingwu Spark (103). Was bounced a couple times down the backside by the winner, Purton was able to have the chalk boxed in entering the stretch, looked like he was a winner when Pingwu Spark ran into his difficulties, was able to get a length and a half lead at the 150 metre mark but ran out of gas late after being away from the races since last May, should improve off that effort.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

Speed Figures:
1st (272): 93 ?
2nd (273): +96
3rd (274): 89
4th (275): 97
5th (276): 101
6th (277): 98
7th (278): -93
8th (279): +99
9th (280): 103
10th (281): 103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 20, 2017 Thirty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 51 degrees Clear skies 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171220_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171220_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 :4: Winfull Patrol (3-1): Is only 2 for 40 lifetime, and would rather run second and third. Trainer is at 6% with the rider hovering around 2%, has not run up to par for this race in his last 4 races while not racing on his proper lead.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 128 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 4th)
Race 3 :10: Charity Kingdom (20-1)

Race 172 (Winners: 2nd, 3rd, 13th & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 8 :11: Super Lifeline (24-1)

Race 184 (Winners: 1st & 12th, second: 4th)
Race 5 :3: Right Honourable (16-1)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 5 :4: Celestial Nova (23-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4: Wah May Baby (15-1)
Race 5 :8: Sparkling Sword (17-1)
Race 7 :1: Victory Marvel (12-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 6 :8: Ho Ho Feel (28-1): Won two races back going 1800 metres at the Valley and then came back with a decent effort after having a little trouble at the break at Sha Tin going two turns which is probably a little too far for him to go. Drew the 11 post with the short run to the first turn, took a nice leap out of the gate at the start conceding at least a length to the field, it really didn’t compromise his running position though what with him being a dead closer. Was unable to find the rail in the first turn so raced 3 wide because Leung on Chater Legend wasn’t allowed to move over himself, made a slight move going up the hill on the backside heading into the turn for home, had a slight change of course at the 250 metre mark, lacked the ample kick home to catch the easy winner.


Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :12: Megatron (6-1)
Race 8 :3: House Of Fun (5-2)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :10: Ever Laugh (2-1)
Race 6 :8: Ho Ho Feel (28-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :5: Numero Uno (25-1)
Race 6 :10: Hay Run (11-1)
Race 8 :7: Mr Genuine (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 23, 2017 Thirty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171223_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171223_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :2: Sparkling Dragon (6-5): Was able to get an easy lead and hold off a couple nice horses in Gallant Return (60) and Win Beauty Win (62) but Sam had to really get into him all the way down the lane and with him not getting to his proper lead, that may get up and bite him against Class 3 runners next out.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *778 (Winners: 5th & 8th, second: 1st & 9th)
Race 7 :9: Super Lucky (56-1)

Race 184 (Winners: 1st, 12th & 13th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :7: Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 5 :5: Beautiful Day (8-1)

Race 185 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, second: 5th & 8th)
Race 2 :2: Eighty Eighty (1-2)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 5 :3: Marqula (44-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 6 :5: Hot King Prawn (2-5)
Race 7 :7: Happy Surveys (19-1)
Race 9 :14: Victory Boys (11-1)
Race 10 :12: Happy Journey (70-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :2: Eighty Eighty (1-2): One of So’s heavily bet first time starters who drew the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at the 1200 metres distance. Was bumped pretty hard at the start by the outside runner Sincere Dragon, then rushed up near the front runners without being asked by Moreira, raced 4 wide in the turn under a strangle hold, all the while the eventual winner was able to get an uncontested early lead and setting a very slow middle section. Ran even thru the lane while not being able to make up the ground on the winner, Moreira wrapped up on him at the 150 metres mark.

Race 7 :1: Turf Sprint (5-1): He doesn’t have the best record on the backside but does look to be rounding into top form and after running second to Hot King Prawn (89) may be sitting on it now. Beat the rest of the field with ease being 2 ¾ lengths in front of the third place runner. Figure came back a 102 which is almost a full length fast than par for Class 3 races.

Race 9 :4: Exultant (1-1): In his second race at HKJC after he ran a game 5th only losing by 2 lengths after encountering trouble to Western Express (112) in his debut, caught another bear in Fifty Fifty (98). Was caught a little flat footed at the start sending him sideways into Romantic Touch, settled around seven lengths in the back by himself with a quick pace to run at, moved to the 6 path entering the stretch really took off at the 300 metre mark switched back to his wrong lead at the 170 mark but continued to close on the big favourite only to lose by a half-length, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runner:
Race 3 :6: Gallant Return (5-1) Race 193

Key Play:
Race 5 :1: Better Choice (2-1)
Race 10 :3: Calculation (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 6 :8: Big Time Baby (20-1)
Race 10 :9: Ultimate Glory (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 209

Notes for the day:
Will avoid all the runners from a poor Class 5 field in the first, Wonderful Tiger’s (50) race can be totally disregarded after he broke 5 lengths slow to the field in the second. Unlike the first the Class 4 going long in the third was extremely tough for that class with a final time to prove it. Cheerfuljet (67) picked up 11 points off his effort and might be able to compete soon against Class 3 runners as long as it’s at the Valley. Right Honourable (64) who came out of the key race 184 got a perfect trip and got up in time to pay key race players $69.90 to win. Will stay away from Rule Thee (67) next time out, was able to get up after travelling wide and just pass the leaders at the wire in a slow final time for 11 furlongs while getting a 15 pounds allowance to the second place finisher Rickfield (81). The final looked like a Sha Tin Class 2 race, a lot of nice runners in there, the chalk Fantastic Eight (84) was outrun on the backside and just didn’t have the final kick he needed.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #5 Born In China (103): Went off at 6-1 in the tough Class 2 final while breaking from the 9 gate with the short run to the mini turn at 6 furlongs. Was bumped pretty good by House Of Fun soon after the start and forced back with Wah May Friend trying to get over with the short run to the turn which put this one in the rear of the field, not where he wants to be. Became rank at the 450 metre mark looking for room with full of run, moved to the seven path in the stretch but had to wait for room, then started a nice run to the wire that was around 200 metres long but was unable to catch the winner Archippus (107) who had a much easier trip. Hopefully Lui will keep him running at the downtown track.

Horses to avoid next out:
Anything out of the 1st Race (282)

Speed Figures:
1st (282): 85
2nd (283): 98
3rd (284): +99
4th (285): 99
5th (286): 97
6th (287): 97
7th (288): 98
8th (289): 108

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 23, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: 229

Notes for the day:
Eighty Eighty (55) in the second was unlucky to lose out on a bob to Bossiee (55), it was not the best ride given by Nash, look for Moreira back up next time after his suspension is over. The final time in the Griffin Trophy came back a little slow most likely due to the slow early pace. Win Beauty Win (71) will have to take the mandatory rise to Class 3 next time, but should be able to handle the climb. Better Choice (61) picked up a rating point in the slow Class 4 in the 5th race getting beat by the first time starter out of the Lee barn, now has to move up to Class 3 where it will be much tougher, will most likely avoid most out of that race in the future. Hot King Prawn (98) was very fortunate in only picking up 9 points which will keep him away from Class 1 runners which most of the time is filled with good stakes runners, Size is going to have to try him around the turn or he’s going to run out of races to run him in. Will give Water Diviner (83) a closer look next time after a nice run, he had been away since last March where he had been on the Vet’s list with cuts on his hind legs after acting up in the paddock in which he was scratched in November. Big number by Victory Machine (68) after getting a perfect trip and only carrying 108 pounds with the bug-boy Poon aboard. Consort (84) looks to have finally found his groove, made a huge run late after getting into trouble early then became rank running just below par for Class 2 races, as long as he doesn’t draw Exultant (102) again. The final race come back very competitive, 6 runners ran faster than par, which is very rare on the turf.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #2 Apollo’s Choice (80): Has seem to have really found his form so far this year, had finished a game 3rd only losing by ¾ length to Happy Agility (83) while breaking from the 13 hole in his last. Had a much better draw for this race getting the 4 post, took a slight leap out of the gate then settled mid-pack on the rail, was looking for room to get thru on the rail early in the stretch but had change those plans when Experto Crede (63) beat him to the hole. Then was boxed in when the eventual winner California Joy (81) beat him to the other opening, was hand ridden to the wire only to lose out by ¾ length in a fast Class 3 race.

Race 10 #13 Sacred Ibis (64): In his first try against Class 3 runners after 2 straight wins in the lower division. Drew an outside post (11) and was a length slow out of the gate, raced around 7 lengths off the pace down the backside, moved to the outside in the stretch and took off when asked to run by Teetan just to miss by a head in a fast race for the class, galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #8 Sum Win Dragon (57): Won a slow Class 4 going long after getting a perfect trip in beating a mediocre field.

Anything out of Race 5 (294)

Speed Figures:
1st (290): 94
2nd (291): 96 ?
3rd (292): -98
4th (293): +90
5th (294): 92
6th (295): -105
7th (296): 104
8th (297): 102
9th (298): 106
10th (299): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 27, 2017 Thirty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees partly cloudy 10 % of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171227_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171227_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 :2: California Whip (3-1): Is in a tough Class 2 for Happy Valley, with a first time starter for John Size from Ireland with Moreira on board. His only win in Hong Kong was on the dirt and has a tendency to not get by leaders in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 086 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, second: 7th)
Race 4 :9: Buddy Bundy (22-1)

Race 147 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 1 :5: Regency Honey (14-1)

Race 173 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :4: My Gift (7-1)

Race 209 (Winners: 1st & 7th, second: 6th)
Race 2 :5: Treasure And Gold (7-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Agiaal (13-1)
Race 5 :3: Bold Elegance (5-2)
Race 7 :9: Right Call (11-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 6 :8: Money Boy (2-1): Is now only 1 for 20 in his Hong Kong record for Size, but does seem to prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin. Was rubbed on immediately out of the gate and was in a great position waiting right behind the front runners heading into the turn, when he entered the stretch he carried himself out a little more than Moreira wanted and allowed General Iron (71) to get up under him and put Money Boy in a box having to wait for room, at the 180 mark Moreira shifted out and closed well only to lose by a short head to a 45-1 winner.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 5 :8: Planet Star (9-2)
Race 6 :8: Money Boy (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 :10: Money Winner (16-1)
Race 5 :4: Beauty Connection (10-1)
Race 6 :5: Charity Glory (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 27, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 174, 210 & 224

Notes for the day:
When the races were being run I started thinking that there was a rail bias in action but after inspecting the races more closely after the battle was over, I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t one. It came be very detrimental to the bankroll if you make a judgement in the heat of a race card of a bias but in reality you may be just hoping for one to be there. In the first Audacity (40) ran into some serious trouble deep in the stretch, almost enough to be put on the watch list, but I try not to put Class 5 runners on it due to their inconsistent race results. He only picked up 1 point which will keep him at the bottom level for his next try. Race 2 was just SLOW, nothing more to say about it. The chalk in the 3rd Destin (47) was beaten by a much better trip and a significant weight allowance, willing to overlook this race and take a closer look next time. Speedy king (58) in the fourth went off as the 2-1 favourite after a short break was a length slow out of the gate and forced wide in the turn while chasing the easy winner Mr Right (67) which most times spells doom going 5 furlongs. Lunar Zephyr (49) in that same race was a quick pull-up after in the gallop out. Energetic Class (62) picked up two points which will put him up into Class 3 after being outrun by the longshot Born Dragon (52) who had a 13 pound advantage. Circuit King (67) has now ran in two straight fast races for their classes, will probably pick up 4 pounds unless Cruz takes Teetan off for a bug, but looks to have really found his form now. Imperial Gallant (80) looked to have plenty in the tank crossing the line in a quick Class 3 race, a VERY impressive turn of foot at the top of the lane and ran away from the rest in just a matter of few strides, should repeat next time against the same. Will tread lightly with Singapore Sling (93) next time, ran a final number that is par for the class but Berry had to beat on him for the last 150 metres just to get up.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #10 Generous Heart (65): Was unlucky to draw the 12 hole in the route in his return to the turf after his try on the dirt at Sha Tin, threw his head at the start sending him to the rear soon afterwards. Was asked entering the final turn at the same time the eventual winner was starting his run going wide Moreira on board, but wasn’t allowed to extend himself forward due to having to wait for Ishvara in front of him, was totally boxed in on the rail while Moreira was running away from the field, Purton never asked him to run in the stretch.

Race 8 #5 Insayshable (89): Showed a very nice run in his debut with Moreira on for the John Size barn, he looks to want to go further than 1650 so look for him to pop up at Sha Tin going 1800 or even 2000. Was a little rank early on and was just outrun by Singapore Sling but quickly galloped past him after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Everything out of Race 2 (301)

Race 3 #9 Don’t Miss (52): Got a perfect trip and beat the favourite who ran into serious trouble while getting the big weight allowance.

Speed Figures:
1st (300): +91
2nd (301): -88#
3rd (302): -95
4th (303): 95
5th (304): 95
6th (305): 103
7th (306): 102
8th (307): -104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 1, 2018 Thirty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 66 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 11.30pm ET, 8.30pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180101_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180101_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :11: Godspeed (7-2): Is the luke warm chalk early in the betting ran a very disappointing 9th as the favourite without visual reasoning why on the poor effort. Not all that keen on a trainer at 5 for 143 would be able to figure it out.

Race :10: 10 Beat The Clock (9-5): He will most likely end up being a real nice runner but will try and beat him in his first try against graded horses, and there are some in here, with Helene Paragon, Beauty Only, peniaphobia and Lucky Year. Asking a lot out of him at that price.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *666 (Winners: 5th, 7th & 9th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :4: Dazzle Winner (74-1)

Race 210 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 10th)
Race 2 :6: Le Panache (13-1)

Race 224 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 6th)
Race 8 :2: Healthy Joyful (13-1)
Race 11 :9: Kingsfield (24-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 :8: Mambo Rock (23-1)
Race 10 :7: Dashing Fellow (20-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :3: Super Missile (4-5): Was bet down as a huge favourite after his barrier trial when he ran with Mr. Stunning (130) and Beat The Clock (99), he stumbled out of the gate and was caught up in the middle of the pack, followed the eventual winner thru the heard showing nice composer for a first time starter, was asked only slightly by Purton near the wire, look for him to go a little further in his next race.

Race 10 :9: Dundonnell (13-1): In his first race since running in Dubai caught a real nice field for his return. Broke extremely slow out of the gate conceding at least two lengths to the field, was a little rank on the backside, looked full of run entering the stretch while being blocked found room at the 280 mark and pretty much ran evenly afterwards, nice effort for being off since last March in the desert. Hopefully Lor will keep him in this class and not raise him back in the Graded ranks again, has spent most of his career in over his head.

Race 11 :8: Jing Jing Win (9-1): Was very unlucky at the draw getting the outside post 14 in the short run to the turn going 1200, broke well enough and was taken back by Purton to try and save as much ground as possible. Became rank or had to check up heading into the turn (kind of hard to tell which on the replays), then began climbing in the turn going 2 wide moved to the 6 path in the straighten up finished well only to get beat by a length to Wah May Friend (104) who had just dropped down from a Class 1 race where he had lost by a nose to Western Express (122).

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :9: Brilliant Monkees (2-1)
Race 6 :1: Jolly Bountiful (4-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Winning Controller (4-1)
Race 6 :3: Supper Missile (4-5)
Race 9 :1: Circuit Hassler (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 :14: Golden Glory (10-1)
Race 6 :5: Royal Chocolate (13-1)
Race 8 :2: Healthy Joyful (13-1)
Race 8 :8: Go Beauty Go (12-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 1, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 199

Notes for the day:
First two races were very weak Class 5 races and the final times proved it. In the second Moreira’s mount Brilliant Monkeys (26) was a quick pull up in the gallop out, Winning Controller (38) showed no heart in his effort, one of these days I will learn to quit making prime plays on Class 5 runners. The winner in the third Wushu Champion (60) was all out to catch the tiring leader Brilliant Dream (53) at the wire and as soon as he hit the line he was done, was passed by at half the field in the gallop out, big avoid next time. Big move in the stretch after going wide in the turn by Magic Success (52) in the fourth, Boudot pretty much wrapped up on him for the last 60 metres, look for him to go a little longer next time. Desmios (58) was a quick pull up in the fifth as was Speedy Wally (53) in the 5th. Super Missile (60) encountered enough trouble while being blocked in the stretch for most inexperienced runners to throw in the towel but he closed well when the room finally became available, his final time wasn’t all that quick which may be just a result of the trip but did look tired after the line, will need a weak field next time for me to play him again. Big number by Infinity Endeavour (73) in the 7th with him picking up 7 points which will most likely put him in at 126 pounds next race which shouldn’t be a problem, as with Infinity in the seventh Conte (78) picked up 9 points. He won that for fun, will take a very Healthy Joyful (80) next time out ran a very nice race while never really challenging Conte but handled the rest of the field pretty easily running a figure above par for the class. In the Chinese Challenge Cup both Fifty Fifty (111) and Beat The Clock (110) ran very impressive races while getting the weight allowance, of the old guards in that race only Helene Paragon (126) showed any kind of moxie against the youngsters. On a personal note thank goodness for Kingsfield (87) in the last for saving my day, coming out of the key race 224 held on paying $47 to win, it was a good day for key race horses with a win, a second and a third out of four runners on the day.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 7 #7 Affluence Start (72): In only his third start where he ran nicely in his maiden race and then threw in a clunker going 7 furlongs at Sha Tin. Broke well from the 2 gate and settled mid-pack while chasing a quick early pace, moved out to the 7 path in the stretch but was unable to catch the easy winner Infinity Endeavor (73) but he did run even with him the length of the entire stretch, galloped out well past the rest of the field after the race and should have plenty in the tank after that effort.

Race 11 #4 Lockheed (88): In only his second race in Hong Kong where he was bet down as the chalk in both tries, and was able to retain the services of Moreira again. Was bumped slightly leaving the gate, nothing all that significant though, settled about three lengths off a slow pace while looking uncomfortable in his stride down the backside. Moved closer to the leaders entering the stretch while racing on the rail, had to wait for room early in the stretch then when it did become available a tiring front runner Eastern Express (94) drifted out at the 150 metre mark forcing Moreira to take up on him while at the same time the eventual winner Kingfield (87) was able to advantage of the situation and get away from Lockheed, Moreira wrapped up on him afterwards.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #3 Wushu Champion (60): Was all out to catch a tired leader at the wire and didn’t gallop out all that well, races probably took too much out of him in his first races since last July, look for a bounce next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (308): 88
2nd (309): 87
3rd (310): 94
4th (311): 98
5th (312): +97
6th (313): 91
7th (314): +103#
8th (315): 106
9th (316): 99
10th (317): 111
11th (318): -101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 7, 2018 Thirty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Light rain Wind: E 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180107_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180107_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 6 :13: Midnite Promise (7-2): Is 1 for 34 lifetime in Hong Kong, 1 for 21 in Class 4 races and draws the 10 hole. Does have the services of Moreira for Lor who are hitting at 50% together, and they will play him because of the Brazilian on board but I will try and beat him at that price.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 093 (Winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 1 :7: Wish Come True (45-1)

Race 229 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :4: Sempiternal (7-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 :13: Happy Journey (34-1)
Race 10 :1: Solar Hei Hei (9-1)

High percentage Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 5 :7: Compassion Star (5-2)
Race 6 :13: Midnite Promise (7-2)
Race 9 :2: Simply Brilliant (2-1)

Horses that have an appreciation for Sha Tin:
Race 7 :5: House Of Fun (7-5)
Race 10 :4: Tine To Celebrate (7-2)

Distance specialists:
Race 4 :4: Morethanlucky (1-1)
Race 4 :7: Razor Quest (13-1)
Race 7 :4: Premiere (2-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horse:
Race 5 :1: Noble Steed (9-5): In his second career race after he had closed to run a good third behind Sparkling Dragon (66) in his debut. In here was bounced around at the start nothing to compromise his race but still enough that it will sometimes affect young runners to take their minds off the issue, but it didn’t seem to bother him. Settled mid-pack chasing a front runner who eventually was eased in the lane, was in tight three wide entering the stretch and quickly accelerated when asked by Prebble and drew away from a nice Class 4 field under a hand ride with his ears picked straight up. Picked up 8 points which will allow him to run again in Class 4 and the extra 8 pounds shouldn’t be an issue.

Past watch list runner:
Race 9 :2: Simply Brilliant (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :1: Noble Steed (9-5)
Race 6 :1: King’s Man (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :3: Five Stars Agent (12-1)
Race 8 :2: Sir Redalot (11-1)
Race 10 :1: Solar Hei Hei (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

F.Y.I. First post time tonight is 12am Eastern and 9pm West Coast.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 7, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 201, 223, 241 & 255

Notes for the day:
Most of the money in the first was placed on the first time starters going five furlongs, halfway thru the race all hell broke loose. At the 400 metre mark Leung took People’s Champion (52) to the outside looking for room to run but in so doing too out Ray’s Call (48) pushing him out into the middle of the track, then Refined Treasure (52) almost went down at the 190 mark when Moreira on Noble Delight (52) was forced out by Golden Dash (60) who drifted out just a bit. Sempiternal (45) was taking a drop in class and was exiting out of a key race (229) and drew away from the field at the top of the lane paying $17.40. Charter Thunder (50) used the 15 lbs. weight allowance to hold off Gran Master (62) who picks up the 2 rating points to move up to Class 3 races. Morethanlucky (82) picks up 8 points after easily defeating an average Class 3 field, his speed figures are a little light for Class 2 so will sit and see how he handles the hike better betting on him. In the 5th Lucky Time (57) was stuck on the rail and was all covered up, Clipperton eventually just wrapped up and conceded the race to others, hopefully he’ll get a draw more in the middle next time out. Another runner out of that race to give another look to is Good For You (57), he ran into a little trouble early on then was forced wide in the turn, a total throw out. King;s Man (58) had no excuse for not winning was in a perfect position entering the stretch while catching a favourite who has shown a complacency in winning, but showed no heart and threw the anchor in pretty easily, in that same race Berry gave Mighty Boy (54) a real poor ride, rushing him into a fast pace entering the turn three wide, not good. Five furlong specialist Premiere (110) waited for the lone front runner to tire and scooted away from the rest without much effort, the most intriguing event of that race was after the race. A lot of times the jockeys like to stand up and salute the crowd as they pass the line, when Teetan did that Premiere drifted out right in front of Fabulous One (102) with Lai having to check him up to avoid him from clipping heels, Teetan was reprimanded for the grand standing. In the 8th the beaten favourite Amazing Star (62) was a very quick pull up after the race, love playing against those types next time they run. In the ninth Purton cost Simply Brilliant (80) the win, after the eventual winner Ping Hai Star (87) took a left turn right out of the gate and surrendered at least 4 lengths to the field. Purton looked to have his race wrapped up without noticing Moreira getting thru on the inside after Zach had put the stick away, by the time he realized what was happening he couldn’t catch up. Doctor Geoff (88) almost won the finale when he continued to shy from the stick of Teetan and at the wire was against the outside rail, he will have to run in a barrier trial before racing again.

Horse to watch for next out list:
Race 1 #6 Refined Treasure (52): Was heavily bet in his first time out for the Millard barn, was unlucky in the draw getting the 2 hole which is an outside post in the 5 furlong straight races. Broke a little slow, and then settled mid-pack became a little rank at the 600 metre mark when in company, had to take up slightly when Moreira’s mount Nolble Delight drifted in. Then bumped Hot Hot Pepper very hard at the 250 mark, and when the eventual winner drifted out back into Noble Delight he came out and almost took Refined Treasure down when they clipped heals, after that there was nothing left but for Teetan to wrap up and thank the racing Gods he didn’t go down. After the race a Vet inspection found no significant damage to him.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 8 #12 Amazing Star (62): As stated earlier, he was a quick pull up in the gallop out.

Speed Figures:
1st (319): 96
2nd (320): +93
3rd (321): +95
4th (322): -100
5th (323): -94#
6th (324): +98
7th (325): 110
8th (326): 99
9th (327): +103
10th (328): +100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. January 10, 2018 Thirty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 52 degrees Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180110_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180110_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :4: Actuariat (3-1): Winless after 24 races in Hong Kong, may win but not with my money.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 147 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 1 :11: Carry To Win (33-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 3 :1: Alcazar (58-1)
Race 8 :7: Key Witness (23-1)

Race 241 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 3rd)
Race 5 :11: Encore Boy (5-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 :7: Ten Flames (19-1)

High percentage Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 7 :2: Dr Win Win (9-2)

Horses that have an appreciation for Happy Valley:
Race 6 :7: Packing Dragon (22-1)
Race 8 :12: Blocker Dee (8-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 5 :3: Moment Of Power (6-1)
Race 6 :3: Dinozzo (9-1)
Race 8 :4: Perpetual Joyance (6-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runner:
Race 5 :4: Money Boy (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 :1: Eagle Way (8-1)
Race 7 :9: Mister Monte (2-1)
Race 8 :2: Mr Genuine (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :6: Rugby Diamond (9-1)
Race 3 :2: Love Chunghwa (29-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 10, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Tough beat in the first for us Key Race players, the chalk beat us by on a head bob at 34-1! In that same race King’s Steed (18) ran a typical Class 5 race, was rank early and became disinterested afterwards, very inconsistent class of horses. Exceptional Desire’s (63) earned him enough points to rate out of Class 4 and after a hard race the rise will probably be a little more for him to handle. I don’t put down too many bad ride notes on Moreira’s trips, but did in the third, Nashashuk (50) was bet down in his first race since June mostly due to the presence of the Brazilian, he became rank early on and he just wouldn’t settle down for him and looked like he was interested in fighting Moreira than running, The Show (42) put in a decent effort after travelling wide into the stretch after chasing a slow pace by a big winner. Race 4 Pearl Warm Warm (46) will be looked at very closely next time he runs, was full of run entering the stretch but when he moved down to the rail for room he was totally blocked without anywhere to accelerate and Leung pretty much put him away for the last 100 metres. Race 5 has come back a little tougher than your normal Class 3 affair at the Valley, even with the highest ranked horse at 72 going into a 80-60 rating race. Winner Money Boy (74) ran a figure good enough to compete against Class 2 runners but will be able and stay in the lower class for his next race. Race 6 Group 3 route, Eagle Way (116) just outclassed that field, hopefully Packing Dragon (94) will drop back into a condition that he’s more comfortable with like Class 2, broke poorly and then had to go three wide in the first turn, that right there is enough to run the line thru that race. Doyeni (95) had trouble at the start but looked like he didn’t want any part of running, at one point I thought he was going to pull a Pakistan Star on us and stop running all together, after some STRONG urging by Prebble he closed all well in the lane, very confusing run by him. Something has to be wrong with Dr Win Win (78) ran very poorly and was a very quick pull up after the race, will check on the Vet’s list on him next time he goes out. Very impressive win by Winning Faith (74) after he walked out the gate conceding at least 2 lengths to the field and following a slow pace made a huge run in the lane making the others look like pony horses, lots left in the tank on the observation, ears were pricked straight up crossing the line. In the finale Purton looked like he may have moved Mr Genuine (94) a little too early, getting caught at the wire by the distance specialist Perpetual Joyance (93), Super Fluke (87) closed well in the stretch but raced a little too far back. Sea Jade (91) was high weight in there but couldn’t keep up with the pace and was not asked in the stretch and pulled up soon after the wire.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 #6 Sharpmind (48): Is in top form at the moment with a win and two seconds in his last three races but was a victim of a bad draw and was taken to the back of the field to avoid the short turn after the break. Race 3 wide in the turn dead last, moved to the middle of the track, and took off when asked only to miss by a length against the Moreira ride on Exceptional Desire (63).

Race 6 #9 Citron Spirit (93): In his first try at Graded company was bet down to 5-1, was bumped out of the gate but looked not to be of any concern just a simple racing incident. Raced three lengths off the leaders in a slow early pace 2 wide in the first turn, was on par with the classier winner Eagle Way (116) entering the stretch, but when straightened up was stuck behind Packing Dragon (94) and when he tried to pass him Dinozzo (100) drifted in and forced Schofield to check him up and totally took him out of the race. After that incident Chad gave the complementary ride thru not to get into trouble, galloped out well and hopefully will return to Class 2 next out.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Dr Win Win (78): As stated earlier he was a 3-1 second choice that ran last and pulled up quickly.

Speed Figures:
1st (329): 90
2nd (330): 97 ?
3rd (331): -96
4th (332): -95
5th (333): 104
6th (334): -105
7th (335): -100
8th (336): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 13, 2018 Thirty-eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 60 degrees sunny 0% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180113_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180113_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 201 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 6th & 12th)
Race 8 :10: Strathspey (5-2)

Race 241 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 3rd)
Race 3 :5: Dragon Pioneer (12-1)
Race 9 :2: Happy Meteor (10-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 9 :5: Golden Sun (12-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Smart Declaration (7-1)
Race 4 :6: Mambo Rock (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 5 :1: Lean Perfection (7-2)
Race 10 :6: Turin Redstar (5-2)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :6: People’s Knight (5-1)
Race 7 :10: Sunny Win (10-1)
Race 9 :7: Pick Number One (7-5)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
Race 10 :2: Star Majestic (22-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :2: Turf Sprint (5-1)
Race 7 :1: Classic Emperor (9-5)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :4: Golden Sleep (15-1)
Race 8 :1: Hay Run (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 10 :10: Flying Lover (46-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 13, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 202 & 272

Notes for the day:
While the races were going on, it looked like there was a closer’s bias but after a closer inspection of the results and how the races shaped I made a judgement call that there was no bias. The first was a weak field of Class 5 runners even with the final time being just a little above par, winner G-One Union (40) paid $56 to win, maybe the only one to watch for is Kwaichung Brothers (39) was making a winning move at the 200 metre mark by splitting two runners but had to check up when he got into the hole. In the 2nd both Golden Sleep (59) and Presidentialparamount (48) both encountered enough trouble to total excuse their races, Presidentialparamount’s speed figures may not be fast enough to win until he gets down to Class 5 though. Turf Sprint (79) was covered up with no running room in the 5 furlong sprint Class 3 third, the betting favourite Beauty Energy (76) first time starter for So ridden by Purton ran a very poor race but will give another chance when he gets to go further, his two wins in England were at the longer distance 8 furlongs. Plenty of trouble in the 4th, Super Chic (77), Sharp Sailor (75) and Gorgeous Again (60) were effected at the start when Rule Thee (67) broke outward and the winner Giant Turtle (74) breaking in, the winner showed plenty of heart not giving it up in the lane while tiring and going back off his proper lead at the 140 metres. Race 5 Sunny Power (52) was very green in the lane after racing wide into the stretch but continued to close while under a heavy ride by Ho. Massive Move (51) picked up 5 rating points after winning a slow Class 4 on the dirt while getting a big weight allowance to the second place runner Pakistan Baby (61) who just can’t find a race to win, now he is forced up in class after that showing. In the 8th Hay Run (60) finished very well to the wire after running into traffic issues in the stretch, the 9-2 third betting choice Strathspey (49) was a quick pull-up under the French rider Boudet after the line. Race 9 the big favourite Pick Number One (76) held on for the win in a strong Class 3 race that was faster than par, but here is Purton’s line after the race “He’s done a good job to come as far as he has, but quite possibly he’s at the end of it. There was a lot more pressure in the race today, he was a little bit uncomfortable on the corner so he’s done well to balance himself up again and find like he did. However, he was gassed on the line.” They are putting him on the shelf to recover for a while. In the last Hard Ball Get (70) was covered up in the stretch and was never asked to run by bug boy Poon.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (341) #3 Nice Kick (57): Was ridden today by Clipperton due to the suspension of Moreira after a nice win going six furlongs against Class 4 runners. Was bumped out of the gate slightly but nothing of significance, settle in the second flight but entering the turn had to stop his momentum when Super Hero Star started falling back off the lead. Moved to the three path half-way in the turn, where he was boxed in behind the eventual favourite winner Lean Perfection (67) entering the stretch, when the winner was making his winning move Nice Kick had to deal with a tiring Amazing Satchmo laid into his path causing him to hesitate in the hole, Sam pretty much just wrapped up in him afterwards not really asking for him in useless situation and galloped out well.

Race 10 (346) #6 Turin Redstar (72): In his second start in Hong Kong after an uneventful first try while drawing the 12 hole on a ‘C+3’ track for Lor, picked up Zach for the ride and the rail at the draw. Broke well and settled mid-pack on the backside, moved off the rail slightly entering the stretch after chasing a slow early pace set by the second place finisher Bullish Smart (74), became rank while looking for room at the 350 metre mark, was blocked until there was only 70 metres to go and exploded to the line without any encouragement from Purton.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 Hair Trigger (73): Beat a weak field with an unproven first timer in Hong Kong that needs to go longer in a slow time.
Speed Figures:
1st (337): 93
2nd (338): -95
3rd (339): -97 ?
4th (340): -99
5th (341): -99
6th (342): 94 ?
7th (343): 102
8th (344): +97
9th (345): 103
10th (346): -98

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. January 17, 2018 Thirty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 61 degrees 10% of rain Wind: E 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180117_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180117_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :6: Don’t Miss (7-2): Was helped by a perfect trip and a favourite who had all kinds of trouble and a serious weight advantage in his last, there's more early speed in here to contend with.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 148 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 1st & 3rd)
Race 3 :3: Hero Look (11-1)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 7 :11: Go Go Win (19-1)

Race 229 (Winners: 2nd, 6th & 8th, second: 4th)
Race 3 :10: Balay Balay (15-1)
Race 5 :6: Istanbul Bey (15-1)
Race 5 11 Fruitful Life (13-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :10: Gouten Of Garo (6-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: Wealthy Fortune (15-1)
Race 5 :1: Wah May Baby (10-1)
Race 6 :1: Fairy Twins (7-1)
Race 8 :11: Happy Surveys (27-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 2 :4: Winning Controller (2-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 6 :5: Arm Runda (4-1)
Race 6 :8: Powermax (5-1)
Race 8 :6: Prince Harmony (10-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 5 :2: Crown Avenue (5-1)
Race 6 :1: Fairy Twins (7-1)
Race 7 :1: Imperial Gallantry (4-1)

Class specialists:
Race 2 :1: Amazing Always (11-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :9: Generous Heart (7-1): Was unlucky to draw the 12 hole in the route in his return to the turf after his try on the dirt at Sha Tin, threw his head at the start sending him to the rear soon afterwards. Was asked entering the final turn at the same time the eventual winner was starting his run going wide Moreira on board, but wasn’t allowed to extend himself forward due to having to wait for Ishvara in front of him, was totally boxed in on the rail while Moreira was running away from the field, Purton never asked him to run in the stretch.


Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :2: Breeders’ Star (14-1)
Race 6 :10: Diamond Master (21-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :1: The Judge (3-1)
Race 7 :9: Generous Heart (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 8 :6: Prince Harmony (10-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 17, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 269

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (347): 96 Out of the four first timers only Majestic Dragon (52) received any money in the wagering pools, Poor ride by Mo rushing Look Eras (57) into the duel going three wide instead of sitting right off of it and waiting for the duelers to tire out. The favourite winner Zero Hedge (59) was the recipient of the duel while saving ground on the turn, big move for the longshot Showing Character (50) after having to swing wide entering the stretch while on his wrong lead step.

Race 2 (348): 91 There was a line of five runners at the wire, but no excuses for the chalk Winning Controller (38) who had a perfect spot for the run home but just didn’t want to pass others, who had a more early stressful race than he did. Rising Power (22) was slow from the gate then became rank in the first turn, Happy Friendship (21) almost got up after a nice ride by Chadwick with the light weight of 113 versus the winners 133 pounds. Winner Amazing Always (45) is now 6 for 10 in Class 5, too bad he’s now retiring from racing, love ATM horses.

Race 3 (349): -94# The early pace was very pedestrianly slow, winner All Best Friends (65) outran the slight favourite Peace On Earth (44) while conceding 25 pounds and a more difficult trip, the pace setter Bingo (42) held on for a game second and Magic Success (50) closed well but too far back to make up the ground. Peace On Earth looked to be a quick pull up soon after the race.

Race 4 (350): -100 I was wrong in this one, thought there would be more pace for the winner Don’t Miss (60) but I guess the other riders didn’t listening, he was allowed to set a very slow pace and when The Judge (60) made his move going three wide in the turn was unable to catch him after that easy trip, stays in the Class 4 with picking up only 1 rating point.

Race 5 (351): 92 The pace in here like a lot of races in Hong Kong starts quickly early on then the brakes are slammed in the middle of the race, there have been complaints about it lately but it still continues. The betting choice High Volatility (58) looked to be in a good spot in the stretch but looked like he refused to split a couple runners, one of the two key race runners Istanbul Bay (51) put in a real nice effort only beaten by ¾ a length after going wide the entire trip. The winner Sangria (61) entered the stretch five wide in the back and caught them all just near the wire.

Race 6 (352): 104 A fast run Class 3 race on a slow track with an average pace early on, the winner Jade Theatre (79) made it two for the night for runners that were exiting dirt races and returning to the turf, it seems like there is always at least on a night at Happy Valley. Second place finisher Breeders’ Star (79) closed well in the stretch after having to slightly wait behind the winner for room and just ran out of real estate late, the favourite Royal Mojito (63) looked uncomfortable and was never asked by Prebble for an effort afterwards.

Race 7 (353): -100 Another five horse blanket finish with the winner Pretty Bauhinia (72) closing on the outside just getting up at the wire in a par final speed figure, looked mid-stretch that the longshot Play Wise (72) was going to get home but 100 metres out he began to tire and was just nipped. At the top of the lane Right Honourable (64) was hesitant in splitting two runners which may have cost him the win, he gathered himself well after he was given room and finished off gaining. The favourite Calculation (78) started leaning in at the top of the lane and threw in the anchor without showing any effort.

Race 8 (354): 101# Another start-stop-start pace, Berry on Who Else But You (77) took the lead then slammed everything down costing a few runners entering the turn to take up Cheerful Jet (67), Blaze Stamina (70) and Charity Glory (72). Star Of Joy (67) was a little slow out of the gate which really affected his usual running position near the front then soon afterwards became very rank in the short turn, while the big winner Flying Tourbillon (84) had a perfect trip sitting on the rail right behind the leaders and a hole opened up and scooted away while the favourite was running into trouble near the rail.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (351) #2 Crown Avenue (59):After an impressive win paying $28 going 9 furlongs while breaking from the 12 hole, drew a more favourable post (#2) and was helped when the runner on the rail broke slow leaving him alone to get over and save ground in the turn but soon in the first turn had to take up when High Volatility slowed down in front of him. Recovered well afterwards until the stretch run where he was stuck behind a tiring front runner and the favourite who was refusing to split rivals. Rispoli was never allowed to get into him while being steadied and only to finished 2 ½ lengths off the winner.

Race 8 (354) #7 Cheerfuljet (67): In his first try up in Class 3 after two very nice wins at the lower level, broke well in front but was taken back soon afterwards by Callan and was allowed to sit off the two duelers on the lead. He became rank when Berry brought Who Else But You (77) into his path on the backside for around a 100 metres, then got in tight when Berry slammed on the brakes entering the turn. Started to split the tiring duelers at the 250 mark but they started drifting in and out and pinched him backwards as soon as he was in the gap, finally at the 150 mark Callan had to stand up in the irons and surrender his position, the staple was put in at that mark for that effort, it cost Whyte two racing days for the incident.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 21, 2018 Fortieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees partly cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180121_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180121_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 :7: Dances With Dragons (3-1): Had a very impressive record before arriving in Hong Kong, but was dead on the board in his debut. Ran a descent race while getting beat by an easy win for the favourite, there are others in here who may be a little faster than he is at this moment, and the 12 hole with the short run to the turn isn’t going to help his cause.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *747 (Winners: 5th & 7th, second: 3rd & 12th)
Race 7 :2: Perpetual Joyance (9-2)

Race *807 (Winners: 3rd & 6th, second: 1st)
Race 10 :2: Chimboraa (43-1)

Race 201 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 6th & 12th)
Race 5 :3: E Master (20-1)
Race 5 :6: Noble De Love (6-1)

Race 210 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 10th)
Race 2 :5: Telephatia (18-1)
Race 2 :12: Holy Unicorn (5-1)

Race 224 (Winners: 1st, 3rd, 5th & 6th, second: 9th)
Race 7 :11: Green Card (8-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :1: Kingston One (79-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :3: Happy Journey (37-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 2 :1: Audacity (4-1)
Race 10 :3: Simply Brilliant (5-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 9 :1: Nothingilikemore (4-5)
Race 10 :4: Conte (4-5)

Distance specialists:
Race 6 :9: Infinity Endeavour (3-5)
Race 7 :2: Perpetual Joyance (9-2)
Race 7 :9: Lucky Wan Feng (8-1)
Race 9 :10: Morethanlucky (8-1)

Class specialists:
Race 8 :3: Pingwu Spark (4-5)
Race 8 :5: Magic Legend (15-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :2: Born In China (24-1): Went off at 6-1 in the tough Class 2 final while breaking from the 9 gate with the short run to the mini turn at 6 furlongs. Was bumped pretty good by House Of Fun soon after the start and forced back with Wah May Friend trying to get over with the short run to the turn which put this one in the rear of the field, not where he wants to be. Became rank at the 450 metre mark looking for room with full of run, moved to the seven path in the stretch but had to wait for room, then started a nice run to the wire that was around 200 metres long but was unable to catch the winner Archippus (107) who had a much easier trip. (Was hoping he would stay at Happy Valley where he’s record is much better than at Sha Tin)

Race 9 :9: Lockheed (13-1): In only his second race in Hong Kong where he was bet down as the chalk in both tries, and was able to retain the services of Moreira again. Was bumped slightly leaving the gate, nothing all that significant though, settled about three lengths off a slow pace while looking uncomfortable in his stride down the backside. Moved closer to the leaders entering the stretch while racing on the rail, had to wait for room early in the stretch then when it did become available a tiring front runner Eastern Express (94) drifted out at the 150 metre mark forcing Moreira to take up on him while at the same time the eventual winner Kingfield (87) was able to advantage of the situation and get away from Lockheed, Moreira wrapped up on him afterwards.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 :2: Healthy Joyful (5-2)
Race 5 :1: Sun Touch (7-2)
Race 8 :2: Born In China (24-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :4: Good For You (9-1)
Race 5 :8: Wonderful Tiger (33-1)
Race 7 :6: Verbinsky (13-1)
Race 8 :5: Magic Legend (15-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 21, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 298

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (355): -87 Race filled mostly with lightly raced runners, the chalk Thou Shall Sing (54) broke from the 12 hole which is close to the rail in the 5 furlong races at Sha Tin was in tight early on and when room became available it looked as if the hole was moving faster than he was. The winner Lucky Volatility (58) who had plenty of barrier trials but was also a maiden runner broke from the outside and raced in the middle of the course which rarely happens in these type of races. Moreira’s ride Noble Delight (50) gave it up after 3 furlongs again, looks like he may have no heart.

Race 2 (356): 91 A below par Class 5 race going the marathon distance of 10 furlongs, the favourite Amritsaria (39) had only win in his record and it was at this distance at Sha Tin after 19 races, Boudot used him up early to get the lead then took him back when a couple longshots engaged him on the backside, fought well in the stretch but was just a little short. The winner Audacity (45) had a perfect trip 2 wide right behind the duelers and a hole opened at the top of the stretch, but Rawiller had to get to the bottom all the way to the wire, will play against him when he goes up to Class 4 next out. Nice efforts by the next three runners: Rock The Tree (40), Pearl Puru (35) and Sweet Bean (32).

Race 3 (357): 104 Healthy Joyful (80) stumbled out of the gate costing him a few lengths off of where he should have been on the backside, probably did him in right there, closed well but was never going to catch the winner. Volitation (74) sat in a perfect striking position and pounced when asked by Teetan and exploded to the wire running a figure well above par, should have plenty in the tank for the next out. Race may prove to be a key race soon.

Race 4 (358): 93 The winner Destin (52) at the 200 metre mark drifted in and bothered Vital Spring (43) causing him to take up, in the States that may have been a DQ but not in Hong Kong, don’t know if he would have won even with the infraction, also the winner was helped by Red Elysees (55) who habitually refuses to change leads in the stretch, may have gotten up if not for that. Nice finish by the third place runner Lucky Time (58) after entering the stretch in the 6 path but he too raced on his wrong lead step.

Race 5 (359): 93 Rispoli was able to get Formula Galore (44) to the lead without much effort while breaking from the 14 hole and soon grabbed him and let Great Sun () engage him causing the field to bunch up. That forced Noble De Love (52) who was bet after a short break and E Master (56) to go four wide in the turn, that’s a losing proposition in HK. Winner Sun Touch (65) had an all out fight to the wire while giving up 21 pounds to longshot Unique Joyful (43). Avellino (58) was rank while wanting room on the turn in the rear of the field and closed well after being blocked and never asked to run by O Doleuze.

Race 6 (360): 106 A big final figure for California Fortune (86), I was a little skeptical of it at first glance but after closer inspection of the other runners was satisfied that the number is legit. It was a perfect run for him, had a couple runners that thought about running with him early on but they soon fell back and he coasted home, only problem was he ducked out a little near the wire, most likely from a photographer Chadwick said. First timer in Hong Kong Wishful Thinker (74) made a nice close late with a little coxing, but was never going to catch the winner even if they went around again.

Race 7 (361): 102 The favourite Dances With Dragons (85) was in his second race after a nice career in New Zealand, but drew a bad post with the short run to the turn, was severely asked to run with 300 metres to go but there was nothing there. The finish line was a packed place, with 7 runners within 2 lengths of the winner in a little slower than par Class 2 event. Key Witness (87) closed to the line but was edged out on the bob after going wide into the stretch, Whyte had to use everything there was in Verbinsky (92) to get up at the wire for the win.

Race 8 (362): -104 Another win for the favourite Pingwu Spark (109) who is now 5 for 7 in Hong Kong, he always likes to make it very interesting, he doesn’t draw off from the others but gets up most of the time. Baba Mama (82) was forced out 4 wide when he tried to cover the winner up half-way in the turn but the 1,300 pounder just shoved his way thru. Wah May Friend (106) was the unfortunate one that had to look him in the eye this week, and Easy Go Easy Win (86) was covered up for half the stretch but when room was made available he was gaining on the winner at the wire but was just a little unlucky with the trip.

Race 9 (363): +109 The Hong Kong Classic Mile, the first leg of the 4 year old triple crown. The impressive winner and favourite Nothingilikemore (112) improved his overall record to 6 wins out of 7 races with a second he held off with ease an improving Singapore Sling (100) and Morethanlucky (92) who picked up 10 rating points after the race. Exultant (102) made a nice move after coming into the stretch extremely wide but was too far back and was chasing a runner who wasn’t going to be caught. Really poor efforts by both Time To Celebrate (95) and Lockheed (88).

Race 10 (364): -104 Conte (86) made it a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime after getting an easy lead and was able to coast home without any true pressure, should be able to handle the class hike with his speed figures are good enough to win most Class 2 races. Roundabout (71) closed well in the stretch after being rank earlier in the race. Berry gave the newcomer Beauty Miles (80) are very poor ride, sending him 4 wide in the turn after it looked like there was room to get over on the backside, have been very disappointed by his riding so far in Hong Kong.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (359) #6 Noble De Love (52): Was coming off a short break in which he had ran a very disappointing 13th finish from bleeding after going off as the 4-5 favourite, was bet down today to 3-1 as the second choice in the betting. Drew a very unfavourable 13 post with Teetan on instead of Moreira who chose another runner in here, settled mid-pack while Teetan was looking the whole way down the backside for a place to settle in closer to the rail but to no avail, was forced to go 4 wide in the turn at least with some cover, fought well down the lane only to get beat by less than 2 lengths by the high weight who had a much easier trip.

Race 8 (362) #4 Racing Supernova (102): Was dropping down from a fast Class 1 to this Class 2 event, but was unfortunate to draw a Pingwu Spark (109) who is on his way to bigger and better races than this. Took his usual running position in the rear of the field, in a slowly run early pace, Rawiller was hoping to find a gap on the rail but was there was nothing there for him. He waited and waited and waited but nothing ever materialized for him, finally at the 100 metre mark he had to check up when one of the tiring runners in front of him came back to him, he never asked him to run but the most interesting thing was even though he finished 4 ¾ lengths back he galloped out past the field after the race.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 (358): Destin (52): Had a perfect trip and still had to fight off two runners who didn’t change leads in a slowly run Class 4 race.


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 24, 2018 Forty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 62 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: E 15 to 25mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15am PT. Rail: Course “-”, track listed: Good (All races are on the dirt)

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180124_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180124_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 :7: Winning Vangough (3-1): Was allowed to set a leisurely pace, looked a winner half-way thru the stretch but was run down near the wire, he never got to his proper lead foot and was a very quick pull up after the race. He went on the Vet’s List for bleeding after that effort back in September, Purton decided not to get on again.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 199 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 3rd)
Race 4 :8: Exponents (23-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 8 :5: Kyrus Bowser (6-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 6 :7: Willie Way (6-1)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
Race 7 :4: Perpetual Treasure (16-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :8: Ho Ho Feel (46-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :4: Furious Pegasus (4-1)
Race 6 :10: Roman Impero (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :5: Massive Millennium (9-1)
Race 3 :5: Hearts Keeper (11-1)
Race 4 :5: Happy Beauty (17-1)
Race 8 :8: Ho Ho Feel (46-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 24, 2018
Track: Sha Tin (AWT)
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 274 & 289

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (365): 91 Second place finisher Rugby Diamond (33) was probably used up a little more than what Sanna would have liked, but he had no choice after drawing the 11 hole, it set it up for another longshot Helen’s Choice (40) who just got up near the wire after Ho really had to get into him. The standby runner G-One Union (40) mad a nice move in the stretch but was just a little too far back entering the stretch to make up the ground, he did gallop out past the top three after the wire (he’s re-entered in the first race Saturday). Moreira’s ride Dynamic Lions (21) put in another poor effort after being jostled around soon after the start.

Race 2 (366): +97 Usual front runner Flying Godspell (52) was a little slow into the going after the start then was bumped on the outside forcing him behind runners and true chances were gone at that moment. The winner Happy Happy Star (66) broke from the far outside, got away well and was able to get to the rail with ease and coasted to a visually impressive win in a final time that was a little slower than normal for the class. Mi Blanco (41) got the big weight advantage but raced wide and was too far back when the winner was getting away but a nice finishing kick none the less. Primero (57) from The John Moore barn who usually likes to be near the lead but was unable to in here was quickly grabbed up by Berry after the wire.

Race 3 (367): 94 The favourite with Moreira on board Amazing Race (59) broke a little tardy on the rail, then when trying to make up some ground while the winner was getting away he bumped the tiring front runner at the 170 metre mark pretty hard and was done after that. Winning Supreme (55) got a nice weight allowance at 115 and used every bit of it to hold off a charging second time starter Elite Boy (54) for Freedman, who might have gotten up if he would have changed to his proper lead step, both looked like they wanted to continue to run after the finish line.

Race 4 (368): +93 A poor ride by the bug boy Poon on Winningli (22), went 5 wide in the first turn then rushed up into a hot duel while continuing to go three wide the entire trip, considering the trip he didn’t finish all that poorly but did look spent in the gallop out. On the other hand a perfect ride by Purton on the winner Victory Follow Me (40) who sat right off the fast duel moved to the outside entering the stretch and quickly drew away from the field for his first win after 28 tries, he only had one making somewhat of a challenge, Furious Pegasus (37) but he just wasn’t fast enough to get to him.

Race 5 (369): 97 A very nice ride by the bug boy almost milking home Beauty Connection (50) home after getting a nice front running trip, but it just looks like this guy just doesn’t want to hold on. He now has 7 in the money runs out of 22 tries but just can’t seem to break the duck in Hong Kong. Winner Chater Thunder (55) repeated his effort after getting up in his previous race at 59-1, he didn’t pay that much here but still not too bad at 9-1 for a runner who had the highest speed figure in their last race on the dirt.

Race 6 (370): 100 The dirt specialist Willie Way (73) had to be taken up half-way thru the first turn when he almost clipped heals with Sharp Sailor (73). Gran Master (65) was extremely wide in the first turn by Badel was adamant on getting the lead, he obtained it by the time they got to the backside, was slightly pressured by Mo on Little Dragon (78) (who was eventually was eased at the wire). In the turn for home the field really bunched up forcing at least six runners to go extremely wide on the turn, while all this was going on the chalk was buying his time on the rail saving all the ground. When the front runner separated from Mo on Little Dragon (who drifted out a little) entering the stretch it gave our hero Prawn Baba (92) an opening he needed and quickly pounced on the opportunity and drew away without much of a challenge.

Race 7 (371): 101 Winner Almababy (89) took advantage of the drop in class, just getting up at the wire catching the favourite Winning Vangogh (80) who had just come off the Vet’s list and as usual didn’t get to his proper lead step late in the stretch and really went tippy-toed allowing the winner time to get up. Big Time Baby (83) put in his usual good effort on the dirt, the disappointing runner was Pakistan Baby (61) who looked very uninterested in running today.

Race 8 (372): +99 Purton on Friends Of Ka Ying (78) was all about getting the lead after going 4 wide in the first turn, eventually he paid the price for it tiring badly late, pretty much being eased for the last 200 metres. Longshot winner Jade Fortune (79) had a perfect trip racing on the rail in both turns, got an opening just as soon as they reached the stretch, dug in and drew away from the field with plenty in the tank.

Thank God that day is finished, hate those all dirt race days!

Horse to watch for next out list:
Race 6 (370) #7 Willie Way (73): Has a preference for running on the dirt much more than he does on the turf, settled near the rear going two wide in the first turn but a little more than half-way had to be taken up seriously when it looked as if Sharp Sailor (73) came into his path. Was 5 wide entering the second turn, moved even wider when they reached the stretch all the while looking full of run but was never going to catch the high weight favourite Prawn Baba (92) for John Size.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 1 (365) #3 Helen’s Choice (40): Was all out (was hit 11 times by Ho in the stretch) to catch the lone speed longshot in a below par final time Class 5 race.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 28, 2018 Forty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 62 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: N 10-15 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180128_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180128_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :14: Bliss Cartel (7-2): Class 5 runner who is still winless after 31 races and is breaking from the 12 hole, it’s a bad field but they will bet Moreira riding Mister Ed the talking horse, if Schofield was still on he would be 8-1.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 5 :1: Encouraging (9-1)
Race 5 :6: Storm Signal (7-2)

Race 274 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 1st)
Race 1 :7: Corre Rapido (20-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
None

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :3: Lucky Bubbles (5-1)
Race 7 :8: Beat The Clock (5-1)
Race 8 :1: Beauty Generation (6-1)
Race 8 :6: Seasons Bloom (4-1)
Race 8 :11: Fifty Fifty (5-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 7 :1: Mr Stunning (3-5)
Race 7 :7: Lucky Year (18-1)

Class specialists:
Race 4 :2: Club Life (10-1)
Race 5 :4: Super Lifeline (26-1)
Race 8 :4: Werther (15-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :2: Crown Avenue (10-1):After an impressive win paying $28 going 9 furlongs while breaking from the 12 hole, drew a more favourable post (#2) and was helped when the runner on the rail broke slow leaving him alone to get over and save ground in the turn but soon in the first turn had to take up when High Volatility slowed down in front of him. Recovered well afterwards until the stretch run where he was stuck behind a tiring front runner and the favourite who was refusing to split rivals. Rispoli was never allowed to get into him while being steadied and only to finished 2 ½ lengths off the winner.

Race 3 :2: Nice Kick (7-1): Was ridden today by Clipperton due to the suspension of Moreira after a nice win going six furlongs against Class 4 runners. Was bumped out of the gate slightly but nothing of significance, settle in the second flight but entering the turn had to stop his momentum when Super Hero Star started falling back off the lead. Moved to the three path half-way in the turn, where he was boxed in behind the eventual favourite winner Lean Perfection (67) entering the stretch, when the winner was making his winning move Nice Kick had to deal with a tiring Amazing Satchmo laid into his path causing him to hesitate in the hole, Sam pretty much just wrapped up in him afterwards not really asking for him in useless situation and galloped out well.

Race 5 :8: Affluence Start (2-1): In only his third start where he ran nicely in his maiden race and then threw in a clunker going 7 furlongs at Sha Tin. Broke well from the 2 gate and settled mid-pack while chasing a quick early pace, moved out to the 7 path in the stretch but was unable to catch the easy winner Infinity Endeavor (73) but he did run even with him the length of the entire stretch, galloped out well past the rest of the field after the race and should have plenty in the tank after that effort.

Race 10 :12: Sacred Ibis (5-2): In his first try against Class 3 runners after 2 straight wins in the lower division. Drew an outside post (11) and was a length slow out of the gate, raced around 7 lengths off the pace down the backside, moved to the outside in the stretch and took off when asked to run by Teetan just to miss by a head in a fast race for the class, galloped out well past the winner after the wire

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :4: Eighty Eighty (4-5)
Race 7 :2: D B Pin (6-1)
Race 7 :3: Lucky Bubbles (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :8: Affluence Start (2-1)
Race 10 :12: Sacred Ibis (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 :5: Po Ching Treasure (27-1)
Race 6 :6: Money Boy (8-1)
Race 8 :4: Werther (15-1)
Race 10 :5: Amazing Agility (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 28, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 164 & 312

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (373): 91 The opener was a weak field of Class 5 runners, the winner Golden Cannon (34) was a step slow and was forced to the rear which is not his preferred running position, then became rank entering the turn and swung extremely wide into the stretch and still managed to get up, showing just how bad this field was. Carry To Win (25) was forced to take up soon in the stretch when the front runner spit the bit and started to back up, still don’t think he would have been a factor even if there was no the trouble. Hay Go Lucky (29) and Young Dreamer (32) both looked to be quick pull ups after the race.

Race 2 (374): 96 Purton on the favourite Hay Run (58) had a brain cramp moment in the second turn, lost his patience and probably moved too soon and was forced 6 wide in the turn and had nothing left for the stretch. On the other hand a very nice ride by Boudot on Good Days (56), saved as much ground as possible and moved to the three path in the stretch and wore down the second and third place runners late in the stretch. The best effort was put in by the second place finisher Midnite Promise (45), he entered the first turn very wide before being able to get over, then was 4 wide in the second turn only to get caught at the wire. For some reason Teetan didn’t allow Good Fit (56) to gallop out after the wire, he jerked his head out about 100 metres afterwards.

Race 3 (375): 95# The third had four first time starters with only one getting any action on the board and that was Purton’s mount for Man on Handsome Bo Bo (53), unfortunately he drew the 14 post and Zach had to use him up too much on the backside to get any kind of positioning. The winner Eighty Eighty (60) ridden by Moreira got to the front for the first time in his career and refused to surrender the lead in the stretch, with him only picking up 5 rating points he’ll be eligible to run in Class 4 again next out if So wants to. Nice Kick (59) made a nice close late after going three wide in the turn, both he and Shanghai Dragon (53) quickly passed the winner in the gallop out.

Race 4 (376): +98 Good ride by the bug-boy Poon on the big longshot Everest (62), haven’t said that in a while for that rider. Sat right off the leaders and moved to the outside for running room when entering the stretch and with the help of the first time blinkers that kept his mind on running was able to wear down Marqula (57) near the wire. The chalk Ever Laugh (49) with Purton on was caught in the wash in the turn but had plenty of room when he entered the stretch and just didn’t seem to have a final kick to catch the top two. Light weight runner Remarkable (40) made a nice close in the middle of the track after running most of the race in the rear, look for him to go 1,800 metres or even further next time and hopefully in Class 5 with the rating of 40.

Race 5 (377): 99 Radiant Speed (81) repeated a speed figure of 99 after winning at 14-1 in his last race, moved to the 7 path entering the stretch and went by 6 runners with one of them being the chalk Affluence Start (72) without much effort, so much so that Badel had enough time to watch himself on the Jumbo-tron for the last 70 metres. Now it’s up to Class 2 where it will be a little hotter in the oven for him. Good effort after a troubled trip in his last by Encouraging (80) at 9-1.

Race 6 (378): 98 Class 3 sprint in the straight away had three first timers in Hong Kong with one of them being a pretty impressive winner. Baltic Whisper (80) had been running in Australia and carried his form over to the island, ears were straight up when he crossed the wire, he earned an extra 10 rating points off that effort. Lucky guy (65) was full of run but was blocked with nowhere to run but was never going to catch the winner even if he had room. Ace King (70) didn’t look like he was very comfortable while being in traffic on the rail, probably will be returning to the city track for his next race.

Race 7 (379): -109 Grade I Centenary Sprint Cup. In the rematch of the Longines Hong Kong Sprint the finish was a reversal with D B Pin getting the better in the end in this one. The main difference was D B Pin (129) was able to look Mr Stunning (129) in the eye in the stretch run where he wasn’t able to get up to him in the HK Sprint, also Mr Stunning was also having to deal with Beat The Clock (120) under him while getting to the line. Peniaphobia (116) made his usual run to the front, he lasted until the 200 metre mark, may need to run a race in Class 1 and see if he can find his heart again or it may be time to hang it up. After watching the head-on it looked as if Rawiller might have got caught sleeping on Me Stunning and not seeing D B Pin gaining on the outside until it was too late.

Race 8 (380): 112 Grade I Steward’s Cup. The Longines Hong Kong Cup winner Time Warp (126) leaped out of the gate and was forced to chase in the back of the field, when Purton asked him to get into the race on the backside he became very rank and was four wide when Leung on Beauty Generation (126) refused to get over, that was enough for him in this event. Winner Seasons Bloom (126) sat mid-pack waiting for his turn on a perfect ride by Moreira, he beat Teetan on Fifty Fifty (121) to an opening forcing Teetan behind three leaders who were starting to tire, it did prove that Fifty Fifty does deserve to run with these types picking up 10 rating points. Werther (126) held on for the final money place with a couple closers in Beauty Only (123) and Southern Legend (118) who were too far back to make up the ground after entering the stretch very wide.

Race 9 (381): 103# The son of Frankel Last Kingdom (86) in his first race in Hong Kong after winning three of six in France was grabbed by Badel when Moreira on the eventual winner Sergeant Titanium (90) took the easy lead, Last Kingdom never got back in the race after that. Real nice effort by the favourite Rattan (88) after breaking from the 12 hole, was three wide in the back of the field while chasing the lone speed winner, moved to the 5 path entering the stretch and was the only one who made a move at the winner late in the race. Consort (84) was covered up entering the stretch but when a hole opened for him and Purton asked there was nothing there to give, a very disappointing race for him.


Race 10 (382): 102 Another perfect ride by the Brazilian on Unicron Jewellery (72), sitting right off the leaders on the rail moving to the outside when a hole opened up for him and ran away from the field before the rest knew what hit them. It looked as if Lady First (70) was going to make a challenge, but as soon as he got close enough he started to tire out and slipped back to his right lead and flattened out after that. New Elegance (76) put in a decent run in the stretch considering he was 8 wide entering the stretch. Bullish Glory (67), Winwin Ruby (72) and Fearless Fire (75) were effected when Lady First ducked in at the 400 metre mark and started a chain reaction of bumping.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 3 (375) #8 Handsome Bo Bo (53): First time starter for Man with the services of Purton for his career debut, unfortunately drew the 14 hole with the short run to the turn in the 6 furlong races at Sha Tin. He did take some action at the windows going off at 4-1 against a heavy 7-5 favourite winner Eighty Eighty (60). He broke well enough but Purton had to really get into him to gain a position on the backside, was able to get near Eighty Eighty entering the turn but it eventually took its toll on him while still never spitting the bit in the stretch only to finish less than a length behind the winner. He should improve off that effort with the experience he gained.

Race 8 (380) #3 Time Warp (126): After an impressive wire to wire win in the Longines Hong Kong Cup, a need to lead type runner was taken right out of the race as soon as the gates opened up. He leaped out of the gate costing him a length but more important he was now stuck behind a wall of runners, when Purton asked him for a run to get into the event he became very rank, then was forced four wide in the turn by Leung on Beauty Generation (126). Purton never asked him to run in the stretch, didn’t even show him stick.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 (373) Golden Cannon (34): Beat a bad Class 5 field in an all-out fashion with a below par final time.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. January 31, 2018 Forty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 46 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: N 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180131_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180131_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 269 (Winners: 1st, 2nd & 7th)
Race 6 :7: Outlawed (18-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :5: The Happy Bunch (25-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :6: Solar Hei Hei (16-1)
Race 5 :9: Hang’s Decision (56-1)
Race 6 :11: Right Call (16-1)
Race 8 :8: Back In Black (14-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
None

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :10: E-Super (22-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 7 :1: Perpetual Joyance (8-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race :5: Citron Spirit (9-2): In his first try at Graded company was bet down to 5-1, was bumped out of the gate but looked not to be of any concern just a simple racing incident. Raced three lengths off the leaders in a slow early pace 2 wide in the first turn, was on par with the classier winner Eagle Way (116) entering the stretch, but when straightened up was stuck behind Packing Dragon (94) and when he tried to pass him Dinozzo (100) drifted in and forced Schofield to check him up and totally took him out of the race. After that incident Chad gave the complementary ride thru not to get into trouble, galloped out well and hopefully will return to Class 2 next out.

Past watch list runners:
Race 7 :12: Jing Jing Win (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :5: Citron Spirit (9-2)
Race 7 :6: Super Fluke (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 6 :7: Outlawed (18-1)
Race 8 :3: Fantastic Feeling (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 31, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (383): -95 Both Lunar Zephyr (49) and Nashashuk (49) had no excuses not to hold on. First time starter Logan One (52) was slow out of the gate then had to check up entering the turn and was not asked to run by Berry afterwards. Nicely timed ride by the apprentice Wong on Winning Supreme (61), caught the chalk just right before the line after a wide trip on the turn which is not as bad a trip going 1,000 metres at Happy Valley.

Race 2 (384): 89 Winaswewish (39) walked for the first 20 metres out of the gate, spotting the field at least 3 lengths, even after all that he still managed to only get beat by a nose to Wonderful Chaser (32) who had a much easier trip other than going three wide in the second turn and surrendering 12 pounds to Winaswewish. Bad rides on both Fortune Giggles (35) (Prebble) and Wealthy Fortune (34) (Ho), Happy Friendship (21) looked like he was going to have a chance to get up but the hole was moving as fast as he was in the stretch. Will most likely try and avoid as many runners out of this race as possible, your typical Class 5 race going long at Happy Valley is the bottom of the barrel of races in Hong Kong.

Race 3 (385): -96 Pace setter Grand Harbour (48) was extremely rank for the first half of the race, by the time Wong had got him to relax the damage was already done for him. Har Har Heart (50) was looking for room to run when he entered the stretch and finally when Chadwick encouraged him to stick his head into an opening (he was a little reluctant on doing it) he was forced to take up when Money Winner (43) started to tire and drifted out into his path. Winner Win For Charity (53) had a perfect trip sitting in a striking position and only had to outrun the tiring second place finisher and a closing Daring Heart (51) who had a more eventful trip and a closing Super Clan (50) that raced too far behind to make up the ground.

Race 4 (386): 95 Confucius Spirit (44) had a pretty eventful race, had to be steadied entering the short turn soon after the start then became rank when in tight on the backside and in the turn, he was eventually outrun by the longshot winner Applause (49) who himself had a little trouble during the running, he was bumped and shuffled to the rear after the start, was still full of run in the gallop out. Pacesetter Dr Proactive (55) had no excuse not to hold on, now London Master (56) on the other hand did, Leung was begging for a hole to open for him behind the pacesetter and when it did a faltering Zero Hedge (59) laid in on him pushing him back behind the frontrunner again taking any chance of getting up away from him.

Race 5 (387): 106# Dinozzo (107) had a perfect trip saving ground in both turns while in no point of the race had to deal with another runner looking at him in the eye, when one of the front runners drifted out entering the stretch he slipped in and did his thing. Marvel Hero (100), Citron Spirit (93) and Helene Charisma (96) had a little bit more of a troubling time than our winner, Beauty Prince (85) breaking from the 3 gate took a left turn at the start and Happy Spirit (79) in the 7 hole took a right turn after the break and unfortunately our three runners caught the brunt of that and had to be taken up losing at least a couple lengths to the field. Nice finishes for both Citron Spirit and Marvel Hero considered what happened and the trip the winner received.

Race 6 (388): 100 A little below par Class 3 event. Photon Willie (63) broke a length slow from the field but Badel took advantage and went straight to rail to save as much ground as possible, in the end it helped him out only running third a length off the longshot winner Razor Quest (76) who outkicked Moreira on the favourite Bullish Smart (75) who had no excuse on giving up the lead. Other than going wide I couldn’t find an excuse for the poor effort for the second betting choice Super Form (68) who was checked after the race and nothing was found for the effort.

Race 7 (389): 104# While the frontrunner Sea Jade (89) had gotten away from the bug boy Poon, the eventual winner Super Fluke (93) sat mid-pack on the rail waiting for Moreira on California Whip (93) to make the first move, Moreira decide to stay on the rail and go under the tiring Sea Jade, Prebble then had to split Sea Jade and E-Super (85) and at the 100 metre mark it was on between the top 2 with Super Fluke catching him just at the wire. The most interesting moment came after the race when Brett looked over at Moreira pointed at him and yelled something. Would love to know what he said! Perpetual Joyance (94) was closing near the wire.

Race 8 (390): 99 Winner Bold Stitch (71) was the first to the hole at the 100 metre mark and it left a couple runners wanting, Healthy Luck (72) started getting a little tipsy toed when he wouldn’t change leads and that left a small passage for the winner but at the same time Alcari (62) wanted to go there too, but as everybody knows you have to take turns and when Exceptional Desire (63) drifted out that caused the large bump fest. After the finish of the race Badel was suspended two racing days for the incident.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (387) #2 Marvel Hero (100): Went off as the slight favourite in a GIII going 1,800 metres in his last losing by 2 ½ lengths to Eagle Way (116). Was pinched back at the start when Happy Spirit on his outside broke inwards forcing him behind half the field before he was able to get his legs under him, he then raced on the rail sitting behind the eventual winner Dinozzo (107). Entering the stretch Moriera took the gamble on trying to get thru on the rail but when the frontrunner started to tire he drifted to the rail and impeded Moreira forcing him to go back to the outside all the while the winner was getting away with a clean trip to the finish line. Moreira never got into him, he allowed him to do it all on his own, no need to ask when there was no hope of catching the winner.

Race 8 (390) #1 Fortune Booth (80): Was taking a drop to Class 3 where he was 1 for 1 in that class prior to this race, unfortunately drew the outside post with the short run to the bend on the backside. Was a little slow out of the gate which probably was the best thing for him, Purton took him straight to the rail. Raced a little rank soon afterwards, from my observation it looked like he wanted to run, but had to take up heading into the turn when Fantastic Feeling had to slow down for traffic that was slowing down in front of him. He continued on the rail looking for room but was unable to find any during the entire stretch run, was forced to check near the wire soon after a situation happened just to the left of him, the race was already decided before that happened.

Race 8 (390) #12 Alcari (62): Drew in as the light weight of the field, was forced to race a little further back than what he’s normally accustomed to, then became a little unbalanced when he was pinched heading into the turn. At the 150 metre mark Teetan saw a small hole but so did Badel on the winner Bold Stitch (71), the only problem was Bold Stitch beat him to it and at the same time Exceptional Desire (63) drifted out and created a log jam at the point of attack causing Teetan to take up on him and then hand rode him to the line afterwards.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 (384): #11 Wonderful Chaser (32): Had to dig down to the wire after travelling wide in the turn while getting a 12 pound weight allowance in a slow and bad Class 5 field.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. February 4, 2018 Forty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 57 degrees Sunny 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180204_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180204_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :1: Super Missile (4-5): Encountered enough trouble while being blocked in the stretch for most inexperienced runners to throw in the towel but he closed well when the room finally became available, his final time wasn’t all that quick which may be just a result of the trip but did look tired after the line, will need a weak field next time for me to play him again. (He did draw a weak field for today, but I am still going to try and beat him as a large betting favourite.)

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 9 :3: Winston’s Lad (17-1)

Race 312 (Winners: 1st & 7th, second: 8th)
Race 4 :8: Speedy Wally (66-1)
Race 6 :11: Indigenous Star (13-1)
Race 6 :13: Starlit Knight (42-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :8: Regency Darling (19-1)
Race 5 :5: Ten Flames (32-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horses winning combos:
Race 4 :1: Super Missile (4-5)
Race 7 :5: Verbinsky (28-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :2: New Asia Sunrise (7-1)
Race 9 :2: Ivictory (even)

Distance specialists:
Race 3 :4: Horse Of Fortune (6-1)
Race 3 :5: Dinozzo (9-2)

Class specialists:
Race 10 :1: Star Majestic (12-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :1: Racing Supernova (8-1): Was dropping down from a fast Class 1 to this Class 2 event, but was unfortunate to draw a Pingwu Spark (109) who is on his way to bigger and better races than this. Took his usual running position in the rear of the field, in a slowly run early pace, Rawiller was hoping to find a gap on the rail but was there was nothing there for him. He waited and waited and waited but nothing ever materialized for him, finally at the 100 metre mark he had to check up when one of the tiring runners in front of him came back to him, he never asked him to run but the most interesting thing was even though he finished 4 ¾ lengths back he galloped out past the field after the race.

Race 7 :6: Good Standing (8-1): In his first try in Hong Kong after winning three races in his homeland of Australia, picked up the services of Mr. Purton but was unlucky in drawing the big (literally 1330 lbs.) Pingwu Spark (103). Was bounced a couple times down the backside by the winner, Purton was able to have the chalk boxed in entering the stretch, looked like he was a winner when Pingwu Spark ran into his difficulties, was able to get a length and a half lead at the 150 metre mark but ran out of gas late after being away from the races since last May, should improve off that effort. (Is coming off the Vet’s list with a lame left hind foot)

Race 8 :7: Turin Redstar (5-2): In his second start in Hong Kong after an uneventful first try while drawing the 12 hole on a ‘C+3’ track for Lor, picked up Zach for the ride and the rail at the draw. Broke well and settled mid-pack on the backside, moved off the rail slightly entering the stretch after chasing a slow early pace set by the second place finisher Bullish Smart (74), became rank while looking for room at the 350 metre mark, was blocked until there was only 70 metres to go and exploded to the line without any encouragement from Purton.

Race 8 :12: C P Power (5-1): Broke at least a couple lengths behind the field at the start, on the positive side though it allowed him to settle in on the rail and save ground in the turn, BUT it would have ramifications in the end. Looked full of run in the turn but was caught all up in it with nowhere to go in the stretch, did show some run at the end while being passed on the far outside by the deep closer Diamond Dragon (68) who payed $ 70.60 to win.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :1: Noble Steed (5-2)

Key Play:
Race 3 :3: Gold Mount (7-5)

Longshots:
Race 5 :1: Grand Chancellor (9-1)
Race 10 :10: Healthy Jouful (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 4, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 321

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (391): 92 Frontrunner Ruminare (34) had no excuse not to finish better than he did, after getting away with an easy lead while half of the field was running wide in the turn. The chalk with Moreira on Treasure And Gold (38) leaped out of the gate costing him at least a length but disallowed Moreira to put him in more favourable running position on the backside, then was blocked in the stretch while the longshot winner Regency Honey (34) was getting away from him after he had a near perfect trip. Don Wongchoy (24) closed well late in the stretch after travelling wide in the turn. Moreira’s ride Cheers Conqueror (31) was pulled up immediately after the wire.

Race 2 (392): -97 Purton on the favourite Have Fun Together (54) was unable to find a way near the rail leading into the turn after breaking from the 12 hole and you just can’t go 4 wide at Sha Tin on lesser animals and win. Fresh Power (49) never felt the stick being totally covered up on the rail with no room to run at any time of the race. The 18 pounds looked to have done in Moreira on Arizona Blizzard (59) late in the stretch that he conceded to Beaut Beaut (50), he had a little difficulty too having to wait behind a wall of tiring runners before he could get up when clear, but not as much as the second place first time starter Ka Ying Brilliance (53) broke a little slow then had to swing wide into the stretch and then had to slightly take up, when finally clear of any obstacles he took the bit and closed with full of run.

Race 3 (393): -113# Have no idea what the riders were thinking in this race, letting Dinozzo (114) and Moreira set such pedestrian fractions on the lead but they all paid for it in the end. Amazing that a horse can run on Wednesday and win again in a graded race on Sunday, guess you can do it when you don’t fill them full of drugs constantly. Gold Mount (114) closed well considering how the race was set up for him, but you could tell half-way thru the stretch he was done from winning it.

Race 4 (394): -95 Both Top Score (58) and Presidentparamount (45) had their moments on the backside where they weren’t happy about running, throwing their heads around enough that it was enough to draw lines thru their races. First time starter Jin Jin King (57) and Ambitious Pins (47) (later was full of run in the stretch but never was able to find clear running) were bumped very hard at the start, as with the winner Grade One (55) who wore down the big favourite Super Missile (61) (who had no excuse for not winning, Purton was given a warning regarding how he finished on the horse to the wire) at the 50 metre mark only to have to hold off a hard charging longshot City Legend (59) who had raced too far back to make up the groud to the wire.

Race 5 (395): 101 Another race that Berry gets himself into a good position on the rail but doesn’t seem to find a way out of it when he needs to, Grand Chancellor (77) looked full of run but was hesitate on splitting thru on the rail and then was blocked when the frontrunner drifted back over onto him. Another runner who was looking for room in the stretch was Moreira on the favourite Bring It On (70), but I don’t believe with a perfect trip he would have been able to get by the winner Rule Thee (76), the race was written for him to win and there was nothing any of them could have done to beat him on that day.

Race 6 (396): 95 The favourite Noble Steed (62) had no excuse not to hold off the winner other than conceding 11 pounds to him, but even with that he should have held on after sitting on the rail behind a duel and then no interference in the lane, now he has to go up to Class 3 off that effort, good luck. On the other hand the winner Sonic Fighter (57) was three wide in the turn and 5 wide entering the stretch and very green switching off his proper lead foot when hit by Leung with the stick. Nam Jong Plus (57) and first time starter Awesome Sauce (52) were pinched back at the start, and Magic Success (48) with Purton on gave no indication that he wanted to put in a descent effort and Moreira’s ride Relentless Me (57) early pace must have taken a lot out of him, for he was a very quick pull up after the race.

Race 7 (397): -103 It looked at the 150 metre mark that the bug boy Poon was going to be able to get Mr Genuine (97) home with a clean trip, all the while the chalk Ping Hai Star (94) was running into traffic problems, but when the seas parted for him he took the bit and closed very well reaching for the wire. You can take a big marks-a-lot pen and scratch right thru Limitless’ (92) effort, he was flat footed out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths to the field and then closed well in the stretch after going extremely wide in the turn. Third place runner Kingsfield (87) looked to have waffled home, running just fast enough to be close but not a good enough effort to catch the leader.

Race 8 (398): 102 Very professional effort by the winner C P Power (67), sat mid-pack 2 wide had to avoid running up onto another runner at the 360 metre mark then split a couple rivals without hesitating in the hole and ran down the second betting choice Turin Redstar (74) late in the lane. The chalk with Moreira on Infinity Endeavour (73) was three wide in the turn and drifted out to the five path but lacked a final kick.

Race 9 (399): 100 Heading into the turn My Beginner’s Luck (73) didn’t take the turn very well and drifted out and really effected Dashing Gainer (62), Ivictory (85) and then Purton on Super Wise (66) had to take up when he came back over to the rail. The winner Ivictory quickly regathered himself and moved to the front by the time they got to the stretch and ran away from the rest like it was a morning barrier trial (figure probably would have come back a little higher if not for the trouble, also looked like he recovered from the cannon bone injury), Super Wise put in a nice effort considering he had all the trouble in the turn but would never have beaten the winner on this day. Real poor effort for Better Choice (61) even after travelling wide in the turn, he threw in the anchor soon in the stretch.

Race 10 (400): 104 Looked like Mo may have moved a little too prematurely on Regency Bo Bo (80) even with the outside draw, instead of sitting right off of Perpetual Treasure (80) he allowed his runner get away from him. Moreira was more than happy to let that evolve in front of him on Sir Redalot (80), sitting third entering the stretch he waited for Mo’s ride to start to tire and just went by very easily. Nice close by World Record (82) was too far back to catch the winner but after a wide trip he’s someone to give a second look at next race.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 4 (394) #10 Ambitious Pins (47): Was bumped sideways coming out of the gate when one of the runners under him took a left turn out of the gate and it looked as if he took the worse of it. Made a nice move on the backside with Rispoli trying to get him back in the race, was full of run in the stretch but was totally blocked with nowhere to go, was steadied at the 150 mark to go closed well when room became available but by then the race was over.

Race 9 (399): #8 Super Wise (66): Was involved in the race where My Beginner’s Luck took a left turn and bothered a few runners with the big winner Ivictory being one of them. When My Beginner’s Luck came back together after drifting out he came back over on Super Wise and forced Purton to take up on him costing him his action and a couple lengths, was never going to catch the winner but beat the rest with ease.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 (393) Dinozzo (114): Will not get a more perfect trip than he did today, now with his ratings up to 114 he’ll have to face the big boys from here on out.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. February 7, 2018 Forty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 53 degrees Clear 0% of rain Wind: NNE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180207_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180207_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 :1: Big Bang Bong (3-1): A runner who would rather run second than win and is picking up three pounds of his last two on the dirt, Moreira chose to go elsewhere for the race.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *750 (Winners: 6th & 10th, second: 9th)
Race 8 :7: Super Sprinter (26-1)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 8 :4: Magnetism (9-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 4 :5: Shalluck (28-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :8: Victory Boys (5-1)
Race 4 :3: Happy Journey (25-1)

Trainer/Jockey/ Horses winning combos:
Race 2 :10: Glory Star (12-1)
Race 3 :1: Marvel Hero (2-1)

Horses for courses:
None

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :1: Marvel Hero (2-1): Went off as the slight favourite in a GIII going 1,800 metres in his last losing by 2 ½ lengths to Eagle Way (116). Was pinched back at the start when Happy Spirit on his outside broke inwards forcing him behind half the field before he was able to get his legs under him, he then raced on the rail sitting behind the eventual winner Dinozzo (107). Entering the stretch Moriera took the gamble on trying to get thru on the rail but when the frontrunner started to tire he drifted to the rail and impeded Moreira forcing him to go back to the outside all the while the winner was getting away with a clean trip to the finish line. Moreira never got into him, he allowed him to do it all on his own, no need to ask when there was no hope of catching the winner.

Race 4 :8: Sharpmind (9-5): Is in top form at the moment with a win and two seconds in his last three races but was a victim of a bad draw and was taken to the back of the field to avoid the short turn after the break. Race 3 wide in the turn dead last, moved to the middle of the track, and took off when asked only to miss by a length against the Moreira ride on Exceptional Desire (63).

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 :1: Marvel Hero (2-1)
Race 4 :8: Sharpmind (9-5)
Race 7 :1: Breeders’ Star (11-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :5: Gentry (10-1)
Race 7 :5: Charity Glory (9-1)
Race 8 :4: Magnetism (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 7, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 302 & 334

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (401): +95 Victory Follow Me (42) sat in a perfect spot took the lead at the top of the stretch and had no excuse why he didn’t hold on for the win, unfortunately for him he picked up 2 rating points so now he’s up in class. Fine With Me (44) was a little rank in the first turn and in the final turn but it obviously didn’t have an effect to him when Nash asked to run and just got up at the wire. The Legend (33) with Moreira on was all covered up in on the rail, finally late he gained some open room but even then didn’t show much determination much fight. Celebration (30) was a little choppy in his gallop out.

Race 2 (402): -95# Happy Rocky (60) was able to save ground in all the turns while the other runners were taking turns going wide at important moments in the race, and outran Purton on the favourite Garlic Yeah (54) who came into the stretch 6 wide and just wasn’t able to catch the winner, looked very tired in the gallop out.

Race 3 (403): -100# Excellent ride by the bug boy Poon on Packing Dragon (99), was able to get a comfortable lead early on, and when Clipperton on Prawn Baba (94) made a move to the leader on the backside, Poon opened him up again then grabbed him up again without letting him run off on him, had plenty left for the stretch run in an all-out fight to the wire with 5 runners within a length at the line. Marvel Hero (100) was a little slow out of the gate then was bumped outwardly forcing Moreira to take back, then made a move entering the far turn going 4 wide and by the time they had entered the stretch there was nothing under him, not the best of rides by him. Race came back very slow due to the slow early pace set by the winner.

Race 4 (404): -96 The winner Sharpmind (53) was forced to take up in the short turn which made the eventual second place finisher Funny Buddies (47) also had to check up behind him. Another pace less race set by Formula Galore (44) who put in a game effort in the stretch but was unable to hold off the chalk winner. Funny Buddies came flying home racing on the rail after lacking running room in the stretch, just needed a few more metres or they would have taken his photo. Look for Gouten Of Garo (51) to improve next out if he can get a better draw than what he had today, also Hero Time (50) made a nice run late after racing too far back in the early stages of the race.

Race 5 (405): 96 Best Runner (51) looked like he was going to blow up the board half-way thru the stretch but he refused to split a couple runners. While that was going on numero Uno (57) was being blocked on the rail by the two pace setters, finally when room became available he took off only get beat by on a bob by a fast closing Navas (64), who was dead last entering the stretch but was clear of traffic. Buoyant Boy (52) also closed with the winner on the outside but just wasn’t fast enough to get up.

Race 6 (406): 96 Purton on the favourite High Volatility (64) was able to get an uncontested lead and coasted all the way around, with only one runner putting in any kind of challenge and Gentry (53) was way too late to make up that difference. No visual problems on why Smart Baby (47) ran such a poor race.

Race 7 (407): 100 Charity Glory (77) was allowed to get an easy lead when Wong on Who Else But You (76) refused to put any pressure on him on the backside. Light weight and chalk Spring Win (63) might have gotten up for the win if not for being boxed in on the rail for most of the stretch run, closed but was short on distance on the pace setter winner. The new comer Famous Warrior (73) should improve off that effort, was blocked and was never allowed to fully extend his legs, watch closely for him to come back especially if Purton keeps the mount. Would not be surprised if this race becomes a key race in the near future, with multiple winners coming out of it.

Race 8 (408): 100 Let’s Take It Easy (68) took full advantage of only having to carry 114 pounds, ran away from high weight Big Bang Bong (78) who didn’t change leads AGAIN in the stretch, as did the second place runner Imperial Gallantry (81) who was forced to the 7 path entering the stretch with Moreira on board, picks up the added point in the ratings so unless he finds a Class 3 85-60 he’ll have to go up to Class 2 and get the light wieght. Look for third place runner Super Lucky (63) to go even further than the 1650 metres he ran today, 1800 metres at Sha Tin might be right up his alley, he’s a long strider that looks to take a while to get going.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 4 (404) #9 Funny Buddies (47): Is not the most consistent runner in Hong Kong, he’s only found the winners’ circle once in his 24 tries. He settled in the third flight heading into the short turn soon after the start but became very rank going into it when the runners directly in front of him started to bunch up. Was pinned in on the rail entering the stretch cocking his head to the side while looking for room to run, after trying to found room on the outside Moreira moved him back over to the rail and he took off when there was space enough to fit thru, unfortunately he ran out of room at the wire to get up for the win, he did gallop out past the winner quickly afterwards.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 (403) Packing Dragon (99): Was allowed to get a very slow easy lead and was able to coast home in a very slow time for a Class 2 races, am playing that he won’t get that kind of trip next time out.


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. February 10, 2018 Forty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NNW 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 12 am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180210_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180210_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 :2: Lucky Time (5-2): His figures have been nowhere close to this class level, he also has a habit of not getting to his proper lead step and not all too keen on favourites who are trained by .02% winners.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :1: Calculation (4-5)
Race 8 :1: Apollo’s Choice (3-1)
Race 10 :8: My Little Friend (38-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 1 :1: Golden Dash (3-1)
Race 8 :1: Apollo’s Choice (3-1)
Race 9 :3: Chung Wah Spirit (9-2)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :6: Conte (2-5)

Distance specialists:
Race 10 :3: Perpetual Joyance (14-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :8: Refined Treasure (4-1): Was heavily bet in his first time out for the Millard barn, was unlucky in the draw getting the 2 hole which is an outside post in the 5 furlong straight races. Broke a little slow, and then settled mid-pack became a little rank at the 600 metre mark when in company, had to take up slightly when Moreira’s mount Nolble Delight drifted in. Then bumped Hot Hot Pepper very hard at the 250 mark, and when the eventual winner drifted out back into Noble Delight he came out and almost took Refined Treasure down when they clipped heals, after that there was nothing left but for Teetan to wrap up and thank the racing Gods he didn’t go down. After the race a Vet inspection found no significant damage to him.

Race 5 :5: Noble De Love (7-1): Was coming off a short break in which he had ran a very disappointing 13th finish from bleeding after going off as the 4-5 favourite, was bet down today to 3-1 as the second choice in the betting. Drew a very unfavourable 13 post with Teetan on instead of Moreira who chose another runner in here, settled mid-pack while Teetan was looking the whole way down the backside for a place to settle in closer to the rail but to no avail, was forced to go 4 wide in the turn at least with some cover, fought well down the lane only to get beat by less than 2 lengths by the high weight who had a much easier trip.

Race 8 :1: Apollo’s Choice (3-1): Has seem to have really found his form so far this year, had finished a game 3rd only losing by ¾ length to Happy Agility (83) while breaking from the 13 hole in his last. Had a much better draw for this race getting the 4 post, took a slight leap out of the gate then settled mid-pack on the rail, was looking for room to get thru on the rail early in the stretch but had change those plans when Experto Crede (63) beat him to the hole. Then was boxed in when the eventual winner California Joy (81) beat him to the other opening, was hand ridden to the wire only to lose out by ¾ length in a fast Class 3 race.

Past watch list runners:
Race 7 :4: Lockheed (12-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :5: Noble De Love (7-1)
Race 8 :1: Apollo’s Choice (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 :2: Fearless Fire (62-1)
Race 5 :1: Ambitious Heart (10-1)
Race 9 :12: Pakistan Baby (13-1)
Race 10 :2: Fabulous One (9-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 10, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None. Slight front running on AWT
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 275, 299 & 367

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (409): 97 Refined Fortune (60) made up for his effort he gave after being bet down as the 2-1 favourite and trouble at the start in his debut, won in hand and a figure just north of par, should have plenty in the tank when he most likely stretches out next time out. Thou Shall Sing (54) put in a poor effort without showing an significant excuse for the effort, the last out winner Golden Dash (60) tried to run with the winner but was unable to keep up after 800 metres. Second place runner Goko (50) ran an impressive race after being away since last July where his only run was on the dirt, too bad he caught a couple nice young runners in his comeback.

Race 2 (410): +102? The first of 4 dirt races came back a little quick for the class after the fast early pace that was set, the closer I looked at it I decided not to adjust it and put the question mark on it and will make sure to watch runners coming out of it very closely. Tang Fleming (76) with the bug boy Mo had to get down on him to hold on to the wire after dueling with Experto Crede (60) on the backside while setting that quick pace. It looked as if Ultimate Glory (66) was going to go by him mid-stretch but Tang Fleming refused to let him go by, then he had to hold off the fast closing couple of Nuclear Power (69) and Travel First (68) who both may have won if there was 10 more metres to run.

Race 3 (411): -96 Calculation (77) with Moreira on leaped out of the gate costing him his usual running position then became very rank on the turn then was blocked in the stretch, total throw out. The winner Agree (69) was able to get the easy lead after the trouble that Calculation ran into at the start and was able to milk it all the way around and hold off the hard closing Diamond Dragon (70) who also had a troubled trip being rank and all covered up mid- stretch. The European came out of Sanna on the backside on Golden Sun (70), instead of continuing on the lead with the eventual winner he took back and didn’t have enough horsepower to close the deal in the stretch.

Race 4 (412): +95 Goldie Flanker (56) was a step slow which is not all that big a deal with his running style but had a little difficulty finding running room in the stretch but when he did he took off and was gaining on the winner with every step for the final 150 metres. The longshot winner Startling Power (47) was all out to the wire after racing three wide, will play against him next time out. Not that bad an effort for Beekely (46) who set the fast early pace and finished up well after being away for a couple months, should improve off the effort.

Race 5 (413): 99 Nice ride by the bug boy Leung on winner Planet Star (55), he let Mo on Celestial Nova (50) set the pace and sat right off of him waiting for him to start to tire at the top of the stretch and when Celestial Nova refused to change leads he backed up pretty quickly (the winner also refused to race on his proper lead). He had to hold off Purton on Lucky Time (60) at the wire who gaining on him while racing under him, the 10 pound advantage helped him get to the wire and hold off Purton. Empire Star (52) closed well after racing wide into the stretch but was too far back to make up the difference.

Race 6 (414): +94 Horrible ride by 5 pound allowance rider Wong, went into the first turn 6 wide spanking Golden Sleep (57) all the while never looking for a spot closer to the rail, and at the same time Poon was doing the same thing with Sempiternal (45). Dashing Dart (45) was rank early on in the race then was totally covered up in the stretch, when he found room he closed very well and galloped out even better passing most of the runners in front of him. The longshot second place runner Kirov (51) was wide in the first turn but was never going to catch Elusive State (50) who was perfectly ridden by Schofield. Pace setter Beauty Connection (50) was very rank after stumbling after the start and had enough of this by the time they had reached the stretch run.

Race 7 (415): -104 Conte (94) continues his perfect record outclassing a descent Class 2 field in his first try at this level, will continue to rise up the ladder. A wonderful try by Easy Go Easy Win (90), he has acclimated to Hong Kong without much difficulty and should win next time out as long as he doesn’t draw Conte again.

Race 8 (416): 101 Apollo’s Choice (86) was the lucky recipient of a great trip and a rival who had more trouble than he needed, Royal Mojito (64) was slow out of the gate while breaking from the rail then had to swing out to the middle of the track when he entered the stretch, was gaining on the winner. Raging Blitzkrieg (76) was full of run but had nowhere to go, he made a nice little run but flattened out near the wire.

Race 9 (417): 101 More questionable rides on the dirt, Ng took Smart Declaration (60) six wide in the turn while Badel rode Joyful Moments (72) five wide into the turn. Ugly Warrior (75) on the other hand was perfectly driven by Ho, was able to gain the front before he reached the turn and get as close to the rail as possible without using too much out of him. Other than going wide in the turn I couldn’t find anything to forgive the effort by Strathclyde (70), Pakistan Baby (59) should appreciate going back down to Class 4.

Race 10 (418): +105 No excuse for Marvel Tribe () not to get up for the win, he sat behind a three horse duel with nobody around him for at least two lengths heading into the turn, while the winner Perpetual Joyance () raced on the rail but had to drift out to the middle of the track for running room. Key Witness () made a huge run late but was too far back to make up the difference as was Jolly Jolly (). House Of Fun () pulled even with Marvel Tribe mid-stretch but hung for no apparent reason and Fabulous One () was pretty much eased for the last 100 metres of the race.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 3 (411) #1 Calculation (77): A runner who likes to be near the lead but was taken totally out of his comfort zone when he took a nice leap right out of the gate, all the while the eventual winner Agree (69) was able to gain control of the lead halfway down the backside. Thru-out the turn Calculation became very rank when Diamond Dragon () was in tight and climbing himself, Moreira moved him to the three path looking for room but Badel on Kiram (61) had him herded behind three runners, after all that Moreira never got into him and allowed him to gallop out to the wire.

Race 3 (411) #4 Diamond Dragon (70): Broke with his two front feet off the ground which is not significant what with his late running style, settled mid-pack while the eventual winner Agree (69) was loose on the lead, midway down the backside he started to fight Rawiller for the bit and began climbing pretty significantly, this went on for at least 500 metres. Entering the stretch it looked as if he took a slight bobble, he quickly recovered but had nowhere to run being stuck behind a wall of four and not able to get out with Calculation (77) and Kiram (69) pinning him in, finally at the 250 mark Rawiller took him back for room he then closed on the winner but ran out of room late while switching off his proper lead foot at the 50 metre mark, he galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Race 8 (416) #9 Royal Mojito (64): Went off as the second betting choice at 5-2 to the eventual winner Apollo’s Choice (86) who had a perfect trip to the line. Royal Mojito bobbled out of the gate on the rail losing 2 lengths to the field, nice ride by the bugboy Mo gradually moving him off the rail and to the 4 path for the stretch run, ran evenly in the stretch but was never going to catch the easy winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 (411) #8 Agree (69): Had a perfect trip while his main competition was running into all kinds of trouble, the race’s final speed figure came back very slow for the class level


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. February 14, 2018 Forty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: E 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180214_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180214_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :12: Bingo (2-1): Has had plenty of chances to sleigh the duck but it looks like he doesn’t want to pass others late in the stretch and his figures have not yet reached the level to win this class of runners, even though this is a VERY weak field.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 210 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 10th)
Race 1 :12: Island Flyer (12-1)

Race 321 (Winners: 1st & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 3 :3: Great Joy (6-1)
Race 5 :9: Smart Salute (37-1)

Race 367 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, second: 2nd)
Race 4 :8: Gracydad (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Wealthy Fortune (11-1)
Race 3 :1: Wah May Baby (7-2)
Race 4 :6: Bond Elegance (5-1)
Race 7 :10: Happy Surveys (21-1)
Race 8 :12: Right Call (18-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 1 :7: Sweet Bean (5-2)
Race 2 :4: The Champ (2-1)
Race 8 :9: Generous Heart (5-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 6 :1: E-Super (7-2)
Race 7 :6: Prince Harmony (9-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 6 :8: Moment Of Power (7-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :8: Cheerfuljet (7-2): In his first try up in Class 3 after two very nice wins at the lower level, broke well in front but was taken back soon afterwards by Callan and was allowed to sit off the two duelers on the lead. He became rank when Berry brought Who Else But You (87) into his path on the backside for around a 100 metres, then got in tight when Berry slammed on the brakes entering the turn. Started to split the tiring duelers at the 250 mark but they started drifting in and out and pinched him backwards as soon as he was in the gap, finally at the 150 mark Callan had to stand up in the irons and surrender his position, the staple was put in at that mark for that effort.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :9: Generous Heart (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 :1: E-Super (7-2)
Race 7 :8: Cheerfuljet (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 3 :2: The Sylph (10-1)
Race 6 :10: Diamond Master (15-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 14, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: Very strong speed
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (419): 93 Happy Friendship (26) was allowed to get a perfect trip on the front end and as the night went along it became obvious that was where you wanted to be, it was one of the most obvious speed bias tracks I have ever seen in Hong Kong, which we don’t get all that many and especially on the turf courses. He let the bias carry him home and getting a 26 pound allowance to the runner-up didn’t hurt the matter either. Remarkable (41) made a nice move against the bias and did it going wide in the turn, would have gone on a watch list if not for him being a Class 5 runner. Hopefully Wong will be taken off Island Flyer (15) for his next out, all around a bad effort by the rider after encountering early trouble.

Race 2 (420): -91 Another race where the track carried the longshot winner Young Dreamer (37) home, was all out to get there after dueling on the lead with Idyllic Wind (33) who even managed to hold on for third place. Scarborough Fair (34) made a nice move but was too far back and fighting the bias was more than he could overcome, something spooked him soon after the wire and almost threw Leung off in the gallop out. At the 250 metre mark Great Toplight (26) drifted in and took out Show Mission (40), A Star Luster 37() and Fair Comment (26) totally out of the race what with Rawiller on Show Mission almost going down.

Race 3 (421): 96 See Me Now (56) wasn’t on the lead but did sit right behind the pace setter Wah May Baby (60) on the rail and Moreira was able to find room and stay on it to the wire, he out finished Great Joy (57) (key race runner) who closed against the bias. Association Fans (44) leaped out of the gate and surrendered at least a couple lengths to the field, and put in a good effort in the stretch considering the trouble at the break. Thank goodness for jocks carrying whips, Callan might have been in trouble if not, The Sylph (57) was trying to get out in both turns and he had to use it to keep him from continuing his outward motion.

Race 4 (422): 97 Gracydad (57) broke on the lead and let the conveyer belt do the rest, the win allowed his trainer Hall to get off a 146 winless streak, in the lane he had to out finish Moreira on the chalk Bingo (43), that’s looking more and more like a hanger, refusing to pass a leader in the stretch. Honest Horse (53) lived up to his namesake in this effort after being away for 11 months and closing well while fighting the track, he quickly galloped out past the winner soon after the finish line. Bad ride by the bugboy Mo on Sharp Hunter (58), breaking from the 10 hole he didn’t put much effort in getting over when entering the short turn and it forced him wide thru out the race.

Race 5 (423): -96 Very impressive win by Har Har Heart (59) after travelling wide in the turn for home, was much the best and drew away from this field with plenty left in the tank for his next try at Class 4, he did pick up 9 rating points which just allows him to stay in this class, barely. Both Charity Wings (48) and Yourthewonforme (45) were slow out of the starting gate, both efforts by them were enough to write a line thru this effort.

Race 6 (424): 101 By now the jocks should have been aware of how the track was playing, but I guess Nash Rawiller wasn’t, on E-Super (85) his last win was on the lead with Nash but for some reason he decided to sit mid-pack and that was that for that race. Moment Of Power (75) grabbed the lead immediately out of the gate and the rest followed him to the winners’ circle, drawing off with the greatest of ease in 1,000 metre races at the city track. Mythical Emperor (79) had a difficult run, stumbling slightly while breaking from the 12 gate forcing him out of his usual running style on the lead, then the bugboy Poon couldn’t find a way over and went 4 wide in the turn and was pushed even wider by Moreira on Money Boy (74) entering the stretch. General Iron (72) was also slow away at the break.

Race 7 (425): 99 Entering the turn Whyte on Prince Harmony (71) came down onto the winner Jolly Convergence (75) and pushed him down towards the rail checking Lean Ambassador (74) who then went into Waldorf (78) who then pushed High Five () into the middle of the track. After it was all was said and done, Whyte got a week vacation for it. Sam’s Love (61) made a nice close in the stretch against the bias, Jolly Convergence stayed as close to the rail as possible and ran down the tiring dueler Cheerfuljet (68).

Race 8 (426): 100 When Berry pushed Happy Spirit (77) to the lead in the first turn after going three wide and engaged Right Call (60) into a duel that neither really would have wanted, it made the race fall apart in the stretch, and even a strong bias can’t carry horses home that can’t finish. Literature (83) saved ground and was the recipient of the battle on the front end and outran the light weight longshot Our Hero (63) home who had a slightly tougher trip. Generous Heart (67) leaped out of the gate then went three in the turn, had nothing left by the time they reached the straight.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (423) #4 Har Har Heart (59): One of the few that was able to win while not running on the front end, was three wide in the turn for home and within a few steps took control of the lead and ran away from the favourite and the rest with plenty of reserve in the tank, luckily he only picked up 9 points so that will allow him to stay in Class 4 next out, the high weight shouldn’t be a problem for him.

Horses to avoid next out:
All the front running winners from today’s races:
Race 1 (419) #11 Happy Friendship (26)
Race 2 (420) #8 Young Dreamer (37)
Race 3 (421) #7 See Me Now (56)
Race 4 (422) #8 Gracydad (57)
Race 6 (424) #8 Moment Of Power (75)


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. February 18, 2018 Forty-eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 69 degrees Cloudy with showers 40% rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180218_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180218_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :5: Exhilarating Time (5-2): First time starter may turn out to be a nice runner but breaking on the rail as a straight maiden doesn’t give much room for error in a 14 horse field, also not too keen on firsters who have already been on the Vet’s list with a stress fracture on their record.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 164 (Winners: 3rd & 9th, second: 1st)
Race 1 :3: Newswire Free (7-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 10 :6: Always Win (26-1)

Race 312 (Winners: 1st & 7th, second: 8th)
Race 3 :2: Desmios (25-1)

Race 334 (Winners: 3rd & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 7 :2: Doyeni (9-1)
Race 8 :5: Romantic Touch (15-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :5: King’s Man (18-1)
Race 7 :7: Lucky Girl (29-1)
Race 9 :6: Morethanlucky (25-1)
Race 10 :5: Victory Marvel (34-1)
Race 11 :14: A Beautiful (93-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 1 :6: Massive Power (34-1)
Race 2 :6: Flame Lily (8-1)
Race 3 :4: Hay Run (7-1)
Race 6 :3: Money Boy (9-1)
Race 8 :2: Booming Delight (6-1)
Race 9 :1: Nothingilikemore (3-5)
Race 10 :9: Flash Famous (5-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 9 :1: Nothingilikemore (3-5)
Race 9 :9: Rattan (11-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 8 :1: Jolly Banner (4-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :1: Nice Kick (9-2)
Race 7 :4: Citron Spirit (6-1)
Race 8 :3: Dundonnell (9-1)
Race 8 :6: Racing Supernova (3-1)
Race 11 :11: Sacred Ibis (4-1)


Key Plays:
Race 3 :11: Ever Laugh (4-1)
Race 8 :3: Dundonnell (9-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :13: Vital Spring (9-1)
Race 3 :5: King’s Man (18-1)
Race 7 :2: Doyeni (9-1)
Race 9 :3: Singapore Sling (11-1)
Race 11 :1: Regency Bo Bo (12-1)

Happy Chinese New Year!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 18, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (427): 88 Favourite Winning Controller (39) had no real excuse being outrun to the wire other than being forced three wide in the turn, he was in a little tight but still should have outrun the longshot winner Happy Beauty (36) who too also was wide in the turn. He did have a favourable advantage of 14 pounds with the bugboy Poon on him, Regency Honey (34) probably had the most excuses on not finishing better than he did, was rank early on then was forced to take up in the turn and was covered up with tiring front runners in his way.

Race 2 (428): +97 This lined up as a very weak field, there were probably better horses in the Class 5 first race than this event. The chalk Amazing Satchmo (48) had yet to run in the money with 6 tries and was 40-1 in his last start, he raced mid-pack on the rail and just wasn’t fast enough to catch the winner Vital Spring (48) who raced directly in front of him that got the jump on the front runner first. Beauty Day (58) who broke from the 12 hole was able to grab the lead soon after the start but went a little too fast in the turn and eventually cost him at the wire. Presidentialparamount (43) was a little slow out of the gate then bumped the outside rival, then in the turn became very rank, while Hinyuen Swiftness (52) was lacking room to run early on in the stretch.

Race 3 (429): 99 Another Class 4 race that was a little bit lower than an average race for this level, (the final speed figure came back quick for the class though) the slight favourite winner Ever Laugh (54) broke well out of the 13 hole and Purton put him in a decent position but unfortunately couldn’t find room to the rail, so was 3 wide fortunetly with cover in the turn. He had to outrun Hay Run (60) who was closing on him at the wire after racing a little too far back while saving ground on the rail, he did have to drift out to the middle of the track for running room but took the bit when he did and finished well to the line, but some reason Rawiller grabbed him as soon as they passed the line and didn’t allow him to properly gallop out. Desmios (58) was never asked to properly run by Doleuze due to being stuck behind a wall of runners who were giving no room for him to slip into, Let Us Win (60) who was dropping down in class was just outrun by the favourite and had an easier trip than the winner.

Race 4 (430): The post time favourite Exhilarating Time (52) thru a fit in the gate and tried to slip thru under the stall, he did manage to get himself out at commenced to run wild around the track for a while and was eventually scratched. The winner Silver Fig (57) received some late action in the windows (he looked fantastic when he came onto the track) after the chalk was scratched at the gate. He sat behind the front runners and missed all the fun at the top of the lane, drifted to an open part of the track and finished gamely, should be a nice runner also was the beginning of the magic day of Chad Schofield (4 winners). Magic Success (46) became very rank entering the turn then checked up at the 700 metre mark, moved to the 5 path entering the stretch and raced in between runners but never changed to his proper lead step and began to tire mid-stretch, was steadied again at the 70 metre mark after his race was already decided. At the top of the stretch Respect (45) who was beginning to feel the effects of the pace drifted out into Noble Star (46) who then knocked Nice Kick (59) sideways, he did recover the best out of the three involved, the other two pretty much wrapped up soon after the get together.

Race 5 (431): -95 First time starter Raging Storm (54) for John Size was bet like he was the second coming of Frankel at 1-2, unfortunately he was a little slow into the race and that usually is a bad sign in a 14 horse field for youngsters, after running in the rear of the field closed very well in the stretch and almost got up for the win. Winner Speedy King (63) a was little rank in the turn while sitting right off the front runners, moved to the four path entering the stretch and had to fight all the way to the wire with All You Need (61) who also was wide in the turn, both had to hold off the troubled favourite and a closing Have Fun Together (56). Split Of A Second (52) was very green in the lane and other than the chalk the runner who caught my eye was Fire And Gold (52) another first time starter was full of run in the final furlong and was blocked near the wire or may have finished in the money, look for him when he’s entered at 1,400 or 1,600.

Race 6 (432): 96 Favourite Baltic Whisper (80) really had no excuse after sitting right off of the eventual winner while he was waiting behind a three horse duel that eventually did in all those runners including Moreira on the second betting choice Master Albert (67) who was quickly pulled up soon after the wire. Dragon Master (76), Ace King (68) and Champion Pride (72) were all effected at the start, but the latter did finish up much better than the other two, he was bothered at the 380 metre mark when Hair trigger (74) moved outwardly looking for running room.

Race 7 (433): 101 The winner Happilababy (87) was able to save valuable ground after breaking from the rail, then found himself in a jam in the stretch but after waiting and waiting Mo finally found a hole to sneak thru and then exploded to the wire using the weight advantage that he got off the low ranking. He had to get by Rocketeer (91) who had a much tougher going, 4 wide in the first turn cost him the precious distance at the line, also another runner who had a bad out was Doyeni (93) what with breaking slowly out of the gate and then unable to get over in the first turn (he looks like he may need a break) was more than he could handle. It’s been a disappointing career so far Helene Charisma (96) and had no excuses here, the handicapping system is holding him down. Victory Boys (80) pretty much just plodded around the track.

Race 8 (434): +111 Racing Supernova (98) was in a perfect spot but after he refused to change leads in the stretch stopped badly, also after an easy lead Wah May Friend (106) didn’t put up much of a fight to the winner Dundonnell (111) who was perfectly ridden by Schofield, pulled up to the leader and didn’t muck around and went right by him then had fend off Jolly Banner (110) who might have gotten up but was bumped late in the stretch by Booming Delight (108) causing him switch back to his wrong lead step causing him lose his momentum briefly. Simply Invincible (90) should improve off this effort in his first race after a short rest, hopefully Hall will put him back into his proper class level next time out.

Race 9 (435): 110 Nothingilikemore (112) had his head turned at the start then threw a shoe, was forced to race in the rear of the field and was never able to make up the difference in the stretch, put a long thick line thru that race just like everybody in Hong Kong is going to. Taking advantage of the trouble that the favourite encountered was Singapore Sling (106), Exultant (102) just wasn’t fast enough while both Ruthven (91) and Rattan (88) were weighed, measured and were found wanting.

Race 10 (436): 99 Favourite winner Wishful Thinker(79) was pinched back at the break, but Schofield didn’t panic unlike the ride Poon gave on Victory Machine (67) Chad settled him in on the rail and waited for the race to come back to him in the stretch, he did encounter some traffic problems at the 170 metre mark but there was plenty of fire in the tank to split the front runners and fight his way to the line, very impressive, also gets to stay in Class 3 again. Lucky Hero (74) in his Hong Kong debut was well supported at the betting windows, and he did put in a very nice effort for not racing since November, but it was another runner’s day. Falcon Turbo (70) also another first timer in China and was involved in the bumping exchange with the winner at the start, while both Bulb Elite (70) and Fiama (71) closed late after racing too far back to make up the ground. For a horse that showed absolutely nothing in the race Flash Famous (71) with Moreira on didn’t want to pull up afterwards, very strange.

Race 11 (437): 103 Green Card (77) acted like a fool (as my mum would say) when he entered the track and threw his rider and ran off and was scratched by the judges. Betting favourite son of Frankel Simply Brilliant (88) has finally figured it out, settled mid-pack moved to the middle of the track entering the stretch and at that moment everybody else was racing for second place, he exploded to the front and didn’t wait for others, should be able to handle Class 2 next time out. Sacred Ibis (67) did put in a very game effort late but he was way too far back to catch a bear like this winner. Both Regency Bo Bo (80) and Dukedom (67) didn’t take the turn all too well and Sir Redalot (80) had a slight incident in the turn behind the winner.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (431) #10 Raging Storm (54): First time starter for the John Size barn was bet down to the prohibited 1-2 favourite, was a little slow in the going at the break putting him in a bad situation for a first time starter with 13 other runners around him. Then was forced back half-way down the backside, then became to climb when he entered the turn, closed well in the stretch after getting caught up in the wash early in the stretch after the slow pace that was set. He galloped out past the first three finishers soon after the wire full of run.

Race 6 (432) #5 Champion Pride (72): In his second race in Hong Kong where he ran at the city track now was in a straight away at Sha Tin, threw a fit right before the gates opened leaving him flat footed and the pinched back when Peace N Prosperity drifted out in to his path, then was forced out when Berry on Hair Trigger came out at the 380 metre mark looking for room causing him to lose his action temporarily. He flattened out nearing the 70 metre mark while never being any danger to the eventual winner Mr Lumieres (76), hopefully he’ll be sent back to the longer distances soon.

Race 11 (437): #11 Sacred Ibis (67): Was put on the list two races back but he’s had the unlucky draw of catching a couple nice runners, today he caught the impressive son of Frankel Simply Brilliant (88). Was bumped at the start but with his running style it wasn’t that big of a deal, raced 10 lengths from the leader and 6 behind the eventual winner, moved to the 5 path entering the stretch but instead of continuing outwardly and losing more ground Teetan kept him underneath a rival and he continued closing in the lane, was the only runner who made up any ground on the big winner and beat the next finisher by 2.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (431) #3 Speedy King (63): Won a slower than par Class 4 race after being rank early in the race and was all out to the line all the while the chalk was getting into all kinds of trouble.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. February 21, 2018 Forty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 61 degrees cloudy 50% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 5.45am ET, 2.45 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180221_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180221_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :8: Nashashuk (9-2): Trainer and jockey tandem is 1 for 26 so far this year. Had a perfect trip in his last and had no excuse not to get up at the wire, but hung pretty badly.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 367 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 12th, second: 2nd)
Race 4 :12: Actuariat (20-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding)
Race 1 :8: Trendiful (15-1)
Race 4 :3: Flying Monkey (6-1)
Race 6 :1: Archippus (7-1)
Race 6 :2: Born In China (3-1)
Race 7 :6: King Of Mongolia (8-1)
Race 8 :7: Fairy Twins (18-1)
Race 8 :10: Back In Black (7-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 6 :3: House Of Fun (9-2)
Race 6 :4: Perpetual Joyance (10-1)
Race 6 :7: Super Fluke (9-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 2 :2: Sichuan Dar (3-1)
Race 2 :3: Packing Dragon (6-1)
Race 6 :2: Born In China (3-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 8 :2: Ivictory (9-5)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :2: Born In China (3-1)
Race 9 :9: Affluence Start (6-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :1: Ocean Roar (6-1)
Race 8 :5: Jade Theatre (6-1)


Longshots:
Race 1 :5: Rugby Diamond (10-1)
Race 5 :6: Daring Heart (8-1)
Race 7 :5: Sharp Sailor (9-1)
Race 9 :5: Imperial Gallantry (12-1)

[ultracapper]

In the 7th on 2/14, is the horse Waldorf the same Waldorf that has been running at Santa Anita?

[steveb]

In the 7th on 2/14, is the horse Waldorf the same Waldorf that has been running at Santa Anita?

not unless santa anita is in new zealand!

[ultracapper]

My point being do Americans ship to the far east? Is it something that happens? Purchase a US horse and bring it to the circuit.

If you're going to be sarcastic, at least be clever about it in a way we can appreciate.

[steveb]

My point being do Americans ship to the far east? Is it something that happens? Purchase a US horse and bring it to the circuit.

If you're going to be sarcastic, at least be clever about it in a way we can appreciate.


it was born and bred new zealand.
is that better???
a simple check by your good self would have revealed the same.

if you think that was sarcastic then you would have to be a lttile bit more touchy than the average bloke.
there was no sarcastic intent at all.

[ultracapper]

Didn't check because I knew someone like yourself would know the answer right off the top of your head, and since it wasn't info that was of any import to me, as it was really nothing more than a mundane conversation addition, I threw it out there as nothing more than a "hey, there's a horse been running at SA by the same name. Could it possibly be the same horse?"

All good. I'll let the good fellow that has nurtured this thread to enormous lengths to carry on distraction free.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 21, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (438): +93 High weight Windfull Patrol (46) was allowed to get an easy lead soon after the start after the other confirmed front runner Catchmeifyoucan (23) was a length slow out of the gate, the winner did get tipsy toed late in the stretch and the gang was coming after him but was able to get across the line on fumes. Give Happy Sound (33) another chance next time hoping he draws less early speed next time out, was bet down after a two month rest with Moreira getting most of the attention. King’s Steed (20) was one of the closers but raced too far back early in the race to make up the difference.

Race 2 (439): -104 There was no excuse why Winner’s Way (110) couldn’t get the money, was all by himself for the first 2/3rd of the race and allowed to set slow fractions, but when the lighter weight Packing Dragons (104) pulled up to him in the turn and the fight began he dug down but the weight advantage and him not changing leads was too much to handle. Lacking a kick in the stretch was Sichuan Bar (101), sat in a perfect spot right behind the leaders and was able to stay on the rail but there was not enough there to catch up. Pikachu (88) took advantage of the light weight and ran a very game third, he’s looks like a winner very soon. Limitless (91) quickly galloped out past the field after the wire.

Race 3 (440): 94 Starlot (47) was pretty much done as soon as the gates opened, he leaped out of the gate and put him in the rear of the field with all kinds of traffic issues. Winner Sharp Hunter 63) sat in a perfect spot two wide in the third flight while Super Junior (61) (was going to be on the watch list, but the rise in raing points means he has to go up in class) the heavily bet favourite who had been away since December and Pearly Treasure (49) were banging heads with each other. Moreira got day for his ride on Arizona Blizzard (59) at the 150 metre mark he came out into the path of one of the tiring duelers and The Happy Bunch (48), and possibly taking his chance of winning away from him. Horse Prosperous (48) was full of run at the line and had to be taken up very hard soon after the wire.

Race 4 (441): 95 If you bet Smart Declaration (65) you had to have a huge smile on your face halfway down the backside, sitting in the second flight behind a three horse duel two wide. It looked as if it was only going be two banging but Ho for some reason rushed up Look Eras (58) into the confrontation and three wide to boot, it was the doom for all three, Look Eras did finish very well though more than I can say for Ocean Roar (58) and Flying Monkey (55). Noble De Boy (46), Rookie Star (45) and Actuariat (41) closed well late after the duel set it up for them.

Race 5 (442): -95 Whyte was adamant on getting the lead on Top Act (53), he went into the first turn 4 wide and continued to push for the lead until he had it, he engulfed at the top of the lane. The winner Sichuan Boss (58) had a pretty eventful trip, was a little slow then became rank going into the first turn then shifted out to the 7 path entering the stretch and after it took a while for Berry to get him to switch leads he ran past the leaders and was under a stranglehold crossing the wire.

Race 6 (443): 110 By the time they reached the top of the lane anybody who has ever watched a horse race could point out the winner, Born In China (111) exploded as soon as he straightened up and gave nobody else a chance. California Whip (93) did represent himself well after going wide into the stretch but there was no way he was getting up, E-Super (85) may have found his current ceiling and should appreciate the drop back in class.

Race 7 (444): -101 Moreira made a premature move on Ensuring (77) into the duel on the backside that sent him 3 wide into the turn and in turn didn’t have enough juice left to carry it to the wire. Super Chic (73) had to be steadied entering the stretch when Bank On Red (73) drifted out but I don’t think it mattered too much for Super Chic was starting to back up at the same time. The winner Sharp Sailor (78) was the recipient off the interference and Rawiller was able to scoot thru on the rail and hold off Ishvara (63) and Acclaimed Light (63) who closed but in my opinion weren’t going to catch the winner if they had raced another 200 metres.

Race 8 (445): 100 Second time starter Comfort Life (69) was bumped and checked to the back of the field soon after the start when Fortune Bo Bo (84) came in on him and Charity Glory (77). Winner of now 5 out of 6 Ivictory (95) sat right off of a rank frontrunner and when asked by Moreira he ran away for the field like it was a morning workout, Triumphant Jewel (69) (who looks to be sitting on a big effort soon) and Radiant Steed (82) closed well but were no challenge for the easy un-pushed favourite. Last race of Jade Theatre (79) must have taken too much out of him for the effort he gave in the stretch.

Race 9 (446): 100 The bad night (only 1 win and a suspension) for Moreira continued in here, as soon as the gates opened his ride Dances With Dragon (84) stood straight up and one of the gate crew grabbed Moreira and the horse ran off only to run interference for the remainder of the race. Also, at the same time Circuit Hassler (78) leaped and then jostled losing at least 9 lengths to the field, so a big black line goes thru this race for him. Purton on Affluence Start (72) had a scary moment when the loose runner came in over him in the short turn on the backside, costing him at least a couple lengths, then the frontrunner Beauty Prince (83) became very rank when he came to him, Poon did a good job getting him to re-relax after he went by. Looked like the bugboy Wong was going to get High Volatility (68) home at the 300 metre mark but couldn’t hold off Imperial Gallantry (87) (who would be a real nice runner if he would ever figure out how to switch leads) late, Good Omen (82) closed well but was a little too far back to make up the difference, he looks to have acclimated to Hong Kong now. Charter Legend () had to check up at the 250 mark when he tried splitting rivals. Lots went on in this race.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 (439) #7 Pikachu (88): Put in a very nice effort in a class that is probably a little over his head, settled mid-pack in a small size field for Hong Kong while the high weight was setting a very slow early pace. Got to the rear quarter panel of the eventual winner Packing Dragon (104) in the stretch but just wasn’t fast to get any closer. Look for a drop back into Class 2.

Race 5 (442) #5 Sichuan Boss (58): Was a little slow out of the gate taking a slight leap forward losing him a little less than a length to the field, then rushed himself under a stranglehold under Berry but became pretty rank when he was in the pocket. Finally settled mid-pack in a slowly pace Class 4 race, moved to the three path when Berry decided for him to get into the race moved even wider entering the stretch and was at the front in less than 300 metres since when Tommy had started riding him, ran away from them under a very light ride with plenty in the tank and galloped out with his ears pricking around wondering where everybody was.

Horses to avoid next out:
None


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. February 25, 2018 Fiftieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: N 5 to 10mph.

Post time 11.30pm ET, 8.30pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180225_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180225_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 :10: Le Panache (3-1): Is 1 for 25 lifetime and is still trying to kill the duck after 17 tries in Hong Kong, will play all day against typed like these.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 367 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 12th, second: 2nd)
Race 1 :6: Shining On (83-1)

Race 321 (Winners: 1st & 8th, second: 2nd & 13th)
Race 6 :8: Multigogo (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 :4: Compassion Star (4-1)
Race 8 :4: Seasons Bloom (7-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 1 :4: Hong Kong’s Folks (3-1)
Race 8 :2: Werther (2-1)
Race 8 :4: Season’s Bloom (7-1)
Race 9 :4: Beat The Clock (5-2)
Race 9 :5: Beauty Only (28-1)
Race 9 :6: Fifty Fifty (5-2)
Race 9 :7: Western Express (22-1)
Race 10 :3: Raging Blitzkrieg (14-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 8 :4: Season’s Bloom (7-1)
Race 9 :2: Beauty Connection (11-1)
Race 9 :4: Beat The Clock (5-2)
Race 9 :6: Fifty Fifty (5-2)
Race 9 :11: Pingwu Spark (3-1)
Race 11 :7: Unicorn Jewellry (7-2)

Distance specialists:
Race 9 :7: Western Express (22-1)
Race 9 :11: Pingwu Spark (3-1)

Class specialists:
Race 7 :7: Club Life (13-1)
Race 8 :2: Werther (2-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 4 :2: Handsome Bo Bo (3-1): First time starter for Man with the services of Purton for his career debut, unfortunately drew the 14 hole with the short run to the turn in the 6 furlong races at Sha Tin. He did take some action at the windows going off at 4-1 against a heavy 7-5 favourite winner Eighty Eighty (60). He broke well enough but Purton had to really get into him to gain a position on the backside, was able to get near Eighty Eighty entering the turn but it eventually took its toll on him while still never spitting the bit in the stretch only to finish less than a length behind the winner. He should improve off that effort with the experience he gained.

Race 6 :12: Ambitious Pins (7-1): Was bumped sideways coming out of the gate when one of the runners under him took a left turn out of the gate and it looked as if he took the worse of it. Made a nice move on the backside with Rispoli trying to get him back in the race, was full of run in the stretch but was totally blocked with nowhere to go, was steadied at the 150 mark to go closed well when room became available but by then the race was over.

Race 8 :1: Time Warp (7-2): After an impressive wire to wire win in the Longines Hong Kong Cup, a need to lead type runner was taken right out of the race as soon as the gates opened up. He leaped out of the gate costing him a length but more important he was now stuck behind a wall of runners, when Purton asked him for a run to get into the event he became very rank, then was forced four wide in the turn by Leung on Beauty Generation (126). Purton never asked him to run in the stretch, didn’t even show him stick.

Race 10 :12: Royal Mojito (6-1): Went off as the second betting choice at 5-2 to the eventual winner Apollo’s Choice (86) who had a perfect trip to the line. Royal Mojito bobbled out of the gate on the rail losing 2 lengths to the field, nice ride by the bugboy Mo gradually moving him off the rail and to the 4 path for the stretch run, ran evenly in the stretch but was never going to catch the easy winner.


Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 9 :6: Fifty Fifty (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 3 :6: Golden Kid (8-1)
Race 4 :9: Fresh Power (8-1)
Race 6 :1: Smiling Charm (10-1)
Race 7 :1: Gorgeous Again (37-1)

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Hi there Michael! I see you’re still offering some nice write up’s on the HK racing. It looks like a lot of work to me, but I’m sure you enjoy their racing program as much as I do.

I thought I would stop by and offer my ideas on another great card.
It sure looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 11 big races on the Turf.
2-Class1, 1-Class2, 3-Class3, 4-Class4, and 1-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 11:30 PM SAT EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ll won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections are ALL be based on a static tote analysis. My Final selections and plays will all be based the Live tote analysis.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..9-4-10 W/ 2-12-13 ….….11:30 PM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#2 - 1600M C2 (8F)T…... 2-1 W/ 3-4 ….......…12:00 AM EST

R#3 - 2000M C5 (10F)T…....2-7-6 W/ 5-8-10 .......12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T….....1-13-2 W/ 3-9-4 ….....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#5 - 1200M C3 (6F)T.……2-12-8 W/ 7-1-11 …......1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T….....4-5-1 W/ 2-11-6 ……2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#7 – 1600M C4 (8F)T…....7-2-3 W/ 8-5-4 ..........2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 2000M C1 (10F)T……2-1 W/ 3-4 ……...…3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#9 - 1400M C1 (7F)T.…….2-4-6 W/ 11-9 ….….....3:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.......4-2-14 W/ 1-3-10 ……..4:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#11 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.......10-3-5 W/ 7-4-8 ……...4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 25, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 376 & 380

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (447): -95 Slight post time favourite Beaut Beaut (52) had to either check up when Striking Mr C (52) came over on him at the 700 metre mark or he became rank on his own, it’s hard to tell on the replays, but one thing is certain he lost his action for a moment and it eventually cost him at the line. Moreira’s ride on the first time starter Hong Kong Folk’s (52) was would you expect from a first time starter after going wide in the turn, took a while to change leads in the stretch and raced a little green, the best thing about the trip was that Moreira didn’t abuse him and just let him gallop to the wire. The winner Winner St Paul’s (47) took advantage of the weight allowance chasing down the favourite right before the line. Shining On (50) and Formula Galore (43) both had a little difficulty in their trips.

Race 2 (448): -102 Not the greatest of rides by Purton on Simply Invincible (89) had the winner measured entering the stretch after he was allowed setting easy fractions but when Purton went to ask he ride flattened out really quickly and went back and changed off his proper foot. On the other hand it was a perfect ride by Moreira on Easter Express (95), milked the pace and kept something for the final 200 metres, nice effort by Spicy Sure (88) looks like he is circling to a new top soon.

Race 3 (449): +93 Double Point (35), Golden Kid (34), Loyal Craftsman (14) and the eventual winner Hall Of Fame (28) were extremely wide going into the first turn and that usually spells doom for these bottom of the ladder runners going these long distances. Savannah Wind (40) was very rank right before he entered the first turn and never really relaxed properly for Purton. Fortune Giggles (37) was ridden to the wire by Rawiller like he bet on the horse only to get passed late, while Rock The Tree (40) made a big move in the stretch after racing most of the time in the rear.

Race 4 (450): 98 First time starter My Winner (52) was very green in his debut, was bumped around at the break then didn’t take the turn all that well and tried to drift out and that pushed another debut runner Little Bird (52) even wider than he was already running. As bad a ride as Purton (in my opinion) gave on the #3 in the second, he was the opposite here, was able to get Handsome Bo Bo (59) over to the rail without much exertion from the 12 hole and control the pace that left him plenty for the stretch run. Fresh Power (49) finished out well but was at the mercy of the pace and wasn’t able to catch the lone speed favourite. Pearl Champion (52) was flying at the end but was way too far back early on, look for him to go a little further next time out.

Race 5 (451): +102 Lean Perfection (80) is looking more and more like a class climber every time he goes to the track, he made a mockery of this field (a weak Class 3) but in a very fast time. Rawiller let Dragon Pioneer (69) get away from him on the backside and staggered home, the also eligible runner Orionids (66) tried to run with him but the pace was way too fast for his liking.

Race 6 (452): 95 Prebble is not having much luck these days, his ride here Royal Elegance (52) was blocked entering the stretch then had to wait for some runners in front of him to weave out of his way and when room became clear he charged to the wire only to be beaten on a bob. Sonic fighter (57) at the same time was having difficulty in finding running room, he was stuck down on the rail and looked like he didn’t want to split thru so Leung late in the stretch had to move him off the rail away from the tiring leaders all the while the longshot winner Great Treasure (55) was gaining momentum on the outside after running at the rear of the field. Smiling Charm (60) didn’t finish all that badly considering he was unable to get over on the backside after breaking from gate 14, look for a better draw and a change of riders next time out.

Race 7 (453): 97 Indigenous Star (46) and Viva Council (44) were bumped and forced to take up after the start, what with Viva Council taking the worse of it being a front runner type and it taking him away from his comfort zone. Winner Marqula (64) sat mid-pack biding his time while travelling wide in the turn and when straightened up he quickly ran away from the field, Red Elysees (55) ran into some traffic problems but don’t think he would have gotten up even with a clean trip. Namjong Plus (57) ran in his usual running position looking at rears for most of the trip but did put in a nice close after moving to the 8 path entering the stretch. Schofield was given days when he on Indigenous Star (46) came over onto Gorgeous Again (58) and Polymer Luck (48) at the 170 metre mark, it wouldn’t have effected either one’s finishing positions, for their races were most likely done at that point.

Race 8 (454): 113# The final figure was adjusted from a 121 to a 113, the final time was very fast on a slow track but if that number is used then every runner in here has run new tops that are way out of their scope, so after close scrutiny I decided on this, was hedging between it and 114 which still would have been high for everyone here. Wonder horse Pakistan Star (123) who’s been away for almost 8 months after he stopped running in his last race, leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths to the field. Purton gave the same ride on Time Warp (127) that he did in the Hong Kong Cup and had the same results, even though this time it was a little tougher down the lane, he was able to get the lead and said catch me if you can and nobody was able to. Werther (126) put in a good try but wasn’t fast enough to catch the front runner, as was Season Bloom (126).

Race 9 (455): 112 Helene Dragon (125) and Western Express (122) were both compromised at the start after breaking tardy and surrendering at least a length to the field. Another top ride by Purton on Beauty Generation (126), always forwardly placed, at the 170 metre mark Moreira tried to slip under him on Beat The Clock (125) but Beauty Generation refused to lay down and fought back after giving up the lead for a few steps. Fifty Fifty (123) had no excuse but just didn’t have the extra gear to head the leader, Beauty Only (122) closed nicely after a wide trip but was never going to get up for the win.

Race 10 (456): 102 Second time starter in Hong Kong Enjoyable Success (68) was pinched back at the start and was forced to race from the rear of the field, was full of run at the line and in the gallop out. Very impressive win by the chalk Super Missile (71) after travelling wide in the turn pulled up to the three front runners and quickly drew off to a very easy win, Moreira threw a few crosses showed him the stick once to keep his mind on matters and wrapped up on him at the 150 metre mark. Raging Blitzkrieg (76) made a valiant effort in the stretch to no avail, for his sake he better hope he doesn’t draw the winner again.

Race 11 (457): 100 One of the most impressive rides of the year by Schofield on longshot winner Super Form (75), saved ground on the rail moved off of it entering the stretch. Didn’t panic when there was no room, waited for his opening and at the exact moment it became available he placed him in the opening and was able to outrun the leaders without much coaxing. Moreira’s ride Lady First (70) looked at the top of the lane like he was going to be able and get up, but he either wasn’t fast enough or refused to pass Unicorn Jewellery (73) then was in tight when Agree (70) started tiring and drifted out into him, wasn’t asked afterwards and galloped out fine.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 8 (454) #3 Pakistan Star (123): Had been away from the races since he stopped abruptly on the backside in last year’s Premier Plate. Drew the rail and was very slow out of the gate when he took a nice leap when they opened, then was forced to chase the eventual winner Time Warp (126), in the stretch he looked raring to go but Purton on the winner didn’t leave any room in on the rail for him to get thru so Chadwick had to wait while being trapped with Werther (126) getting the jump on him on the run to Time Warp on his outside. Moved outside at the 150 mark but was unable to make the close at the wire while racing in between Werther and Seasons Bloom (126), should improve off that effort as long as he doesn’t go crazy again and stop running.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 (448) #1 Eastern Express (95): Beat a very soft Class 2 field in a slow for par final time after getting a perfect trip.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. February 28, 2018 Fifty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 66 degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: WSW 5mph.

Post time: 5.15am ET, 2.15am PT. AWT track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180228_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180228_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 :1: Pakistan Baby (7-2): He is a yo-yo on the class ladder, he’s not fast enough to win with light weight in Class 3 and doesn’t seem to get home at Class 4 with the high weight, and with him still winless after 15 tries on the dirt and throw in the 11 hole today too, no thanks.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 94 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, second: 11th & 13th)
Race 1 :12: Starry Starlies (17-1)

Race 302 (Winners: 1st & 2nd, second: 7th)
Race 1 :4: Supreme Storm (30-1)

Race 321 (Winners: 1st & 8th, second: 2nd & 13th)
Race 5 :4: Imperial Concorde (4-1)

Race 367 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 12th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :4: Hearts Keeper (10-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for sloppy footing:
Race 1 :5: Fantastic Fabio (14-1)
Race 2 :3: Golden Flanker (3-1)
Race 4 :5: Good Fit (7-1)
Race 4 :6: Chater Thunder (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 7 :1: Perpetual Joyance (15-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :5: Team Fortune (8-1)
Race 8 :1: Perpetual Treasure (27-1)
Race 8 :4: Pick Number One (5-2)
Race 8 :6: Ugly Warrior (8-5)

Distance specialists:
Race 4 :3: Crown Avenue (8-1)
Race 7 :1: Perpetual Joyance (15-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :3: Crown Avenue (8-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :2: Quick Return (10-1)
Race 6 :10: Nuclear Power (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :2: Gracydad (23-1)
Race 6 :5: Tang Fleming (16-1)
Race 7 :1: Perpetual Joyance (15-1)

[Rico8812]

Anyone know why Amwager has the Sat night cards but not the Wed night?

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: February 28, 2018
Track: Sha Tin (AWT meet)
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 394

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (458): -90 Rainbow Gold (18) didn’t make the turn and carried out Starlit Knight (36) and Supreme Storm (35) out extremely wide with him, taking any chances they had right there with him (Rainbow Gold did close well in the stretch after the incident). Fantastic Fabio (36) took the lead at the top of the stretch and had no excuse not to hold off the winner Five Stars Agent (39) who just wore him down. From the pan shot it looked as if Massive Millennium (32) was refusing to split a couple runners in the lane but from the head-on there was plenty of room for him to go thru, he just wasn’t fast enough at the right moment.

Race 2 (459): 96 Bold Elegance (53) looks to have lost this at the draw, had to overcome the 12 post and wasn’t able to get close to the rail and travelled three wide in the turn only to lose by a half-length to Travel Emperor (63) who saved ground on the rail and Zach had to ask for everything out of him to get up. Elite Boy (55) was just a little short after controlling the pace, Hearts Keeper (57) just missed out while him and Goldie Flanker (55) move flying late.

Race 3 (460): 98 Flying Force (53) was a little slow out then Elite Spirit (56) bothered him slightly and the Ng took him back instead of trying to hold his position. Born Dragon (52) never looked comfortable while racing on the rail in tight chasing the winner Startling Power (53) who was allowed an easy lead and was full of run when he straightened up for the drive home while the runners behind him were already scrubbing. Grade One (57) might have caught the winner if not for having to shove his way for room behind the second flight that weren’t going anywhere.

Race 4 (461): 96 Good Fit (55) was checked going into the first turn when Wong on Sparkling Sword (49) came over onto him which in turn forced Quick Return (60) also to alter course. Sempiternal (45) was even with the eventual easy winner Remarkable (51) at the top of the stretch but was stuck behind the tiring duelers and was never allowed to fully extend himself, Teetan at the 200 metre mark and wrapped up and let him gallop out. Let Us Win (60) and Crown Avenue (58) closed late but were never going to challenge the winner after racing too far back early on.

Race 5 (462): +98 Moreira had a very eventful ride on Nice Kick (59), was at least five wide in the first turn then made a move in a hot pace to the leaders on the backside heading into the second turn had enough by the 300 metre mark. Winner Amazing Feeling (57) was able to save ground in both turns but when they entered the stretch Wong on Golden Sleep (59) tried to herd Berry in behind tiring runners but there was a small enough opening for him to get thru and those two fought all the way to the wire. Imperial Concorde (55) made a huge run late after going extremely wide.

Race 6 (463): 99 Faithful Trinity (70) was scratched on his way to the gate when he threw the rider and ran off. Righteous Mate (62) was very rank out of the gate which cost him a couple lengths to the field. Moreira had another wide trip after drawing the 13 post on Gran Master (65) who was very wide in both turns, he tried to make a move in the turn but it happened at the same time the leaders were beginning to run away from the field. Nuclear Power (71) and Dr Win Win (83) dueled the entire trip and both had to dig down in the stretch with the longer price Dr Win Win getting up at the wire after the favourite Nuclear Power looked like he was going to get away from him mid-stretch.

Race 7 (464): +101 Perfect ride by bugboy Mo on the winner Blocker Dee (88) saved ground right behind a rush of 5 runners and as one by one started to fold out of the pace he pulled right up to the shoulder of California Fortune (88) without surrendering his position. First time runner in Hong Kong Great Honour (82) was steadied on the backside when Team Fortune (88) came over into his path. Fight Hero (95) just missed out at the wire after being caught in the wash for most of the stretch run, also Team Fortune finished properly.

Race 8 (465): 102 Front running type Phantom Falcon (64) took a leap out of the gate on the rail taking him out of his proper setting, then was steadied soon afterwards on the backside. All You Need (61) was bumped at the beginning and was forced to race in the rear afterwards. The winner Pick Number One (83) had to deal with a number of runners on the front end, but it had no effect with his total performance, when he reached the stretch he ran away from the field without much effort. Ugly Warrior (77) had to deal with Storm Signal (73) coming over onto him on the backside (costing Poon a couple days) but in my opinion it wasn’t all that significant in his final running position, he was in good position to make a run at the winner but wasn’t fast enough when Ho asked.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 8 (465): #11 Phantom Falcon (64): He has shown a tendency of running second in his career so far, picked up Moreira for the ride and drew the rail in a very tough Class 3 event with 2 young real good runners in Pick Number One (83) and Ugly Warrior (77). He leaped out of the gate costing him a length but more important he would now have to race in the rear while he had been showing early speed of recent, then he had to check up 200 metres away from the gate costing him another couple lengths. Looked to be full of run when he reached the stretch but was now having to deal with slowing traffic in front of him, he moved further away from the rail for running room and closed well afterwards and almost finished in the money, galloped out past the field after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. March 3, 2018 Fifty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 74 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: SSE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180303_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180303_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :1: G-One Union (4-1): Was scratched out of his last race when he went on the Vet’s list for a lame right hind hoof, a dead closer breaking form the rail always seems to find traffic issues.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 9 :6: Bravo Watchman (5-1)

Race 272 (Winners: 1st & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :8: My Bear Cat (60-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :1: New Asia Sunrise (7-1)
Race 7 :7: Lucky Girl (12-1)
Race 9 :1: My Little Friend (5-1)
Race 10 :2: Calculation (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 5 :12: Yourthewonforme (11-1)
Race 9 :6: Bravo Watchman (5-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 9 :6: Bravo Watchman (5-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 3 :3: Jolly Jolly (6-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :4: Raging Storm (4-5): First time starter for the John Size barn was bet down to the prohibited 1-2 favourite, was a little slow in the going at the break putting him in a bad situation for a first time starter with 13 other runners around him. Then was forced back half-way down the backside, then became to climb when he entered the turn, closed well in the stretch after getting caught up in the wash early in the stretch after the slow pace that was set. He galloped out past the first three finishers soon after the wire full of run.

Race 10 :2: Calculation (5-1): A runner who likes to be near the lead but was taken totally out of his comfort zone when he took a nice leap right out of the gate, all the while the eventual winner Agree (69) was able to gain control of the lead halfway down the backside. Thru-out the turn Calculation became very rank when Diamond Dragon () was in tight and climbing himself, Moreira moved him to the three path looking for room but Badel on Kiram (61) had him herded behind three runners, after all that Moreira never got into him and allowed him to gallop out to the wire.

Past watch list runners:
Race 10 :6: Turin Redstar (3-2)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :2: Lucky Time (2-1)
Race 7 :1: Rivet (7-2)
Race 8 :2: Rule Thee (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :4: Charity Kingdom (13-1)
Race 5 :12: Yourthewonforme (11-1)
Race 6 :5: Empire Star (19-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 3, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (466): 93 A total chaos race from the beginning to the end, what with 6 first time starters with one of the Goodluck Goodluck (52) was bet down as the 5-2 second betting choice (who showed early speed and tired after dueling in between runners), but it was another first time starter that was very slow out of the gate for Moreira on Complacency (58) and still found a way to get up which rarely happens in the 1,000 metre races at Sha Tin. The betting choice Lucky Volatility (60) had no excuses, sat right behind a three horse duel but had nothing for the winner when he was challenged. Ocean Elite (47) was steadied at the 450 mark and then when Sanna tried to get him back in the race he lifted his mouth up and finished out very green.

Race 2 (467): 93 May have been the biggest surprise winner of the year (paid $164 to win), You Have My Word (46) was averaging finishing 41 lengths behind the winners of his last five races, he didn’t beat the best Class 5 race but it was nowhere near the worse either. Kwaichung Brothers (39), Le Pegase (25) and Gold Talent (21) were all in a winning positon mid-stretch but none of them could match the longshot winner, and both Hit A Home Run (38) and Lightning And Gold (21) were slow away from the gate, while Spicy Double (23) had to take up heading into the turn costing him a length in position while racing on the rail.

Race 3 (468): -105 The 2-5 favourite Ping Hai Star (109) toyed with this field even after a slow early pace set by Kingsfield (), Moreira gave him a couple love taps when they straightened up and his quick turn of foot outclassed everybody. Circuit Glory (88) didn’t finish all that bad considering he never relaxed for Teetan, he fought him pretty much the entire trip.

Race 4 (469): 94 The long awaited debut for Seventy Seventy (53) for Hall was made and he put in a descent effort after running into some traffic issues in the stretch. Winner Iron Boy (65) who was coming off of three lackluster efforts on the dirt, found himself mid-pack racing two wide and at the 350 mark Whyte found himself all covered up and was looking for an opening, finally at 200 metres to go it became available and he exploded to the wire without being hit once while out finishing the first time starter favourite and Charming Bachelor (59) who ran third. Charming Bachelor was a little slow out of the gate (1 length) and raced at the rear of the field but finished with a professional kick for a first time starter, he did throw his head around a bit in the run for home so look for him to be equipped with cheek pieces next out. Both Eighty Eighty (60) and Goko (50) lacked a final kick and were outrun by the top three finishers.

Race 5 (470): 97 Beauty Day (58) threw his head up and over the gate and was left behind by at least 20 lengths, there was a long inquiry on ruling him as a runner. Electric Lightning (51) became rank on the backside which in turn forced Poon on Sport Master (41) to lose his action for a moment. Winner Telecom Man (53) sat right off the surprise front runner Indigenous Star (44) who in his previous 13 races had NEVER shown any early speed. Telecom Man pulled up to the leader at the top of the stretch with Yourthwonforme (43) with Moreira on board, but he quickly threw out the anchor and there were no more challengers left for him to the wire and he drew away with ease. Lucky Time (60) looked poised to make a challenge but lacked the kick when he refused to switch to his proper lead foot. Royal Chocolate (47) was quickly grabbed up by Prebble after the wire.

Race 6 (471): 100 The 1-2 favourite Raging Storm (63) lived up to his billing today, no mucking around with him going straight to the lead and let the field get a good view of his rump, he did start to tire at the 170 mark when he switched back off his proper lead but he was never in trouble. The Full Bloom (44) (did close well in the stretch after having move out wide entering it wide) and Sunny Power (52) were knocked sideways out of the gate when Planet Star (55) broke in on them. Empire Star (52) was gaining on the winner after going wide in the turn and quickly galloped out past him after the finish line.

Race 7 (472): 104 The 5-2 second choice Rivet (96) was scratched when he reared and kicked getting his left leg stuck over the rear of the gate causing him to scratch. Savvy Six (86) acted up before the start ripping his bridle off and ran off then was slow from the gate at the start (was full of run late while racing very green, should be a nice runner when they work out the kinks). Limitless (89) was very rank when Callan took him to the rear of the field soon after the start. Patriot Hero (82) closed well while racing in the middle of track but was too far back to make up the difference. Sergeant Titanium (93) put in his usual good effort only to be passed by the favourite Ruthven (97) near the wire, the winner never changed leads in the stretch which may be a problem in the Derby when he will have to manage a second turn and by my count was whipped by Purton 21 times for him to get pass Sergeant Titanium.

Race 8 (473): 105# Probably the most impressive win of the day from Jolly Gene (80) and in the same race the biggest disappointment effort by Rule Thee (76). With a lack of early speed to deal with, bugboy Poon let Jolly Gene get a comfortable lead. The race was 1,800 metres but was over after 400 metres from the gate. Neither Bring It On (70) and General Dino (62) had no chance of catching the easy winner.

Race 9 (474): 101 Baltic Whisper (80) sat down as the gates opened costing him probably three lengths to the field which means his race was done at that moment going 1,000, also having trouble at the start were Diamond Master (62) and Country Melody (81). The top two finishers Bravo Watchman (88) and Mr Lumieres (77) ran head and head with each other until Bravo Watchman came over and gave the other a nice little love tap at 250 metres causing Mr Lumieres to lose his action for a moment and he wasn’t able to stay with the winner afterwards. Dragon General (83) closed like gangbusters but was way too far back early on to make up the difference, look for him to soon return to the 1,200 metre races.

Race 10 (475): 99 Joyful Moments (70) threw his head upwards at the start causing him to race very unstable soon afterwards, Sanna took him straight to the rear. Calculation (77) set the pace all by himself setting an honest pace but just couldn’t hold on until the 100 metre mark when the winner Turin Redstar (79) finally chased him down. Ultimate Glory (67) closed with the winner but wasn’t fast enough to overtake him, while Lucky Guy (65) was stuck behind runners in the stretch and was full of run in the gallop out.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 4 (469) #8 Seventy Seventy (54): Was bet down as the 2-1 favourite in a pretty tough Class 4 going 1,200 metres with the services of Purton om board. Raced 5 lengths off the leader Lucky Lucky who was setting a quick first fraction, he was full of run entering the stretch while being herded down on the rail, he became rank for an extended period of time while Purton was trying to find some running room. He quickly accelerated when Purton was able to straighten him up but was outrun to the wire by a more experienced runner, he did tire in the last 50 metres switching back off his proper lead, should improve off this effort.

Race 6 (470) #6 Sunny Power (52): Was unfortunate in drawing Raging Storm (63) and him getting pretty much a perfect trip, while Sunny Power was bumped repeatedly at the start forcing him to the rear of the field. He finished off well after racing on the rail and having navigate thru some tiring runners in front of him and quickly galloped out past the winner after the wire.

Speed Figures and trip notes for the 2 runners in the Macau Hong Kong Trophy:
Romantic Touch 110 Perfect trip on the lead with little pressure and was able to draw off on the soft footing with nothing gaining on him late.

Marvel Hero 99 Settled in the rear while chasing the eventual easy winner who set a comfortable pace, closed to outrun tiring outclassed runners while never going to be able to get near the winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 (467) #5 Kwaichung Brothers (39): Had no excuse not to hold on to the wire but to be outrun by You Have My Word (46) is unforgivable.

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. March 7, 2018 Fifty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Partly Cloudy 50% of rain Wind: E 15 to 25mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180307_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180307_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :2: Ivictory (3-5)
Race 2 :4: Blocker Dee (16-1)
Race 4 :2: Happy Surveys (10-1)
Race 7 :1: Extremely Fun (7-1)
Race 8 :11: Energetic Class (14-1)
Race 8 :12: Wah May Baby (16-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 2 :2: Ivictory (3-5)
Race 4 :4: Happy Bao Bei (11-1)
Race 8 :2: Green Energy (5-1)

Horses for courses:
None

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 5 :2: Har Har Heart (9-5): One of the few that was able to win while not running on the front end, was three wide in the turn for home and within a few steps took control of the lead and ran away from the favourite and the rest with plenty of reserve in the tank, luckily he only picked up 9 points so that will allow him to stay in Class 4 next out, the high weight shouldn’t be a problem for him.

Race 6 :1: Fortune Booth (5-2): Was taking a drop to Class 3 where he was 1 for 1 in that class prior to this race, unfortunately drew the outside post with the short run to the bend on the backside. Was a little slow out of the gate which probably was the best thing for him, Purton took him straight to the rail. Raced a little rank soon afterwards, from my observation it looked like he wanted to run, but had to take up heading into the turn when Fantastic Feeling had to slow down for traffic that was slowing down in front of him. He continued on the rail looking for room but was unable to find any during the entire stretch run, was forced to check near the wire soon after a situation happened just to the left of him, the race was already decided before that happened.

Race 6 :11: Alcari (5-1): Drew in as the light weight of the field, was forced to race a little further back than what he’s normally accustomed to, then became a little unbalanced when he was pinched heading into the turn. At the 150 metre mark Teetan saw a small hole but so did Badel on the winner Bold Stitch (71), the only problem was Bold Stitch beat him to it and at the same time Exceptional Desire (63) drifted out and created a log jam at the point of attack causing Teetan to take up on him and then hand rode him to the line afterwards.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :7: Cheerfuljet (13-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :3: California Whip (5-1)
Race 4 :3: Numero Uno (12-1)
Race 8 :5: Winning Faith (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :10: Happy Friendship (10-1)
Race 6 :7: Cheerfuljet (13-1)
Race 7 :2: Fantastic Feeling (10-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 7, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 335 & 390

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (476): +94 Sweet Bean (30) and The Joy Of Giving (34) were both compromised at the start and Happy Friendship (26) had no response for Mo in the second turn after sitting right off the front running winner Megatron (45). He set a very quick early pace which usually spells doom going long at the Valley, but when there were no challengers he was able to draw off for an impressive win. Celebration (30) and Loaded (38) ran even in the lane but were never going to catch the easy winner.

Race 2 (477): 112# Winner Ivictory (107) is now 6 for 7 after jumping out to a quick lead and set a course record at 1,200 metres in 1.08.52 and picked up 12 rating points. The original speed figure was 123, which would mean 6 of the 7 runners would have new lifetime tops coming out of this race, even at 112 it’s 7 points higher than par and would be a top weight figure heading into a Graded race. California Whip (93) ran a very game race chasing the big winner but just didn’t have the extra two gears he would have needed to catch Ivictory, hopefully this won’t take too much out of him, Purton only went thru the motions with him in the stretch while never putting the hammer down on him. Starlight (81) put in a decent effort considering the circumstances.

Race 3 (478): +95 Good Days (61) had a perfect trip in more ways than one, he was able to save ground in all three turns while the chalk Garlic Yeah (54) was in all kinds of trouble in the turn for home having to take up losing at least a couple lengths in his action, which Happy Rocky (60) also had to take up behind that. The winner had to hold off King Bountiful (52) who stood in the gate and eventually had to go three wide in the final turn and never switched to his proper lead step (hopefully, there will be another 2,200 metre race scheduled soon and he gets a better draw than 11 for it at the Valley). Audacity (46) also had a wide trip before making a run to the lead and couldn’t hold on in the lane.

Race 4 (479): 95 Usually running near the front Nashashuk (45) sat back in the gate and when they opened he leaped out losing 2 lengths to the field and putting him in a very uncomfortable situation. Brilliant Dream (52) had to check up after becoming rank heading out of the short turn, also Master Viking (52) steadied when Happy Bao Bei (54) came over onto him. Hero Time (57) was able to sit on the rail behind the eventual quitter and scooted up under him when they entered the stretch and quickly ran away from the field. California Aspar (61) ran a bang up race considering he was 52-1, he just didn’t have the extra umph he needed to stay with the winner.

Race 5 (480): -95 Purton on The Judge (61) decided on the backside to move him into contention after a slow pace was being set by Win For Charity (53), the only problem with that is he was now forced to go three wide in the turn. Perfect trip for the 4-5 favourite Har Har Heart (65) with Moreira on board, saved ground in both turns and was able to scoot thru in on the rail when Ho on Win For Charity gave him a slight opening in the stretch, and Joao was able to coax him thru. Charity Wings (46) was a step slow at the start then was pinched back, became rank before the first turn, then on the backside Poon tried the same move Purton did but his steed couldn’t make it to the lead then after going 4 wide in the second turn made another move in the stretch. Mega Treasure (42) was wide thru-out.

Race 6 (481): 100 First time Hong Kong starter Gameplayer Emperor (70) was a little slow out while breaking on the rail. Leung on Cheerfuljet (68) was unable to get him to relax on the frontend and dueled with the 9-5 chalk Alcari (63) which eventually took its toll on both in the stretch. Winner Fortune Booth (87) raced in the rear half of the field and was full of run at the top of the stretch but had to wait for an opening which did happen at the 200 mark and quickly out ran the tiring front runners. Super Leader (61) closed well in the stretch all the while trying to drift in after going three wide in the turn.

Race 7 (482): 101 Winner Smart Boy (73) was all out to get up at the wire against Fast Most Furious (72) who had been away from the track since last November, he bullied his way thru a small opening at the 100 metre mark forcing Sanna on Lotus Breeze (63) to check up and almost go down (Purton got 2 days for it, almost put him on the watch list but find it hard to trust trainers that are at 3% for the year). Pretty much at the same time that was going on Mo on Most Beautiful (62) couldn’t keep a straight line and drifted down onto Navas (64) who went into a tiring Extremely Fun (74), Mo as like Zach got two days and was fined $4,800US (stewards don’t play around there).

Race 8 (483): 104 Returning to Class 3 Hang’s Decision (77) took a nice leap right out of the gate losing a couple lengths to the rest, and Super Lucky (61) was rank going into the first turn three wide. Easy favourite winner Winning Faith (83) raced on the rail in the third flight behind an honest pace being set by Energetic Class (62) who eventually faded badly. The seas opened up for Winning Faith at the top of the lane and the race was over at that moment, and drew off under a hand ride. Pretty Bauhinia (72) was near dead last entering the stretch and closed after being forced very wide into it. Pay close attention to runners coming out of this race, 2nd thru 6th ran to or a point just below par for Class 3.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 (477) #3 California Whip (93): Had the worse luck drawing in a race where the winning horse Ivictory (107) is now 6 for 7 and breaks the track record for 1,200 metres. Broke just a half-length slow and Purton probably had to use him a little more than he would have liked early on in the race to hold his position, unfortunately he was then forced to chase the winner for the remaining of the trip due to Rispoli taking Fantastic Eight () back and not allowing him to run up front and giving Ivictory the easy lead. He made a couple runs at him, once on the backside and then again in the turn but was unable to head him at any time, he drew off and beat the third place runner by 2 ¾ lengths under pretty much a hand ride (his final figure is above par for the class).

Horses to avoid next out:
None

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. March 11, 2018 Fifty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180311_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180311_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :7: Beauty Prince (2-1): Is only 1 for 27 lifetime in Hong Kong and would rather not pass leaders in the stretch, probably needs to drop back down to Class 3 to find another win.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 201 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 6th & 12th)
Race 5 :5: Diamond Mysterious (19-1)

Race 296 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 2nd)
Race 8 :4: Multi Facets (39-1)

Race 367 (Winners; 1st, 3rd & 12th, second: 2nd & 7th)
Race 5 :7: Enreaching (16-1)

Race 394 (Winners; 3rd & 8th, second : 1st)
Race 1 :1: Flying Noble (2-1)
Race 5 :7: Enreaching (16-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :1: Golden Dash (9-2)
Race 4 :10: The Full Bloom (8-1)

Runners on the AWT if it becomes sloppy:
Race 3 :2: Prawn Baba (5-2)
Race 5 :6: Chater Thunder (7-1)
Race 6 :5: Willie Way (9-1)
Race 6 :10: Travel First (3-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 1 :3: Happy Happy (9-1)
Race 5 :1: Hay Run (15-1)
Race 6 :3: Royal Performer (7-2)
Race 7 :4: Born In China (6-1)
Race 7 :5: Dundonnell (14-1)
Race 8 :7: Star Shine (6-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 6 :5: Willie Way (9-1)
Race 10 :6: Unicorn Jewellery 5-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 3 :4: Imperial Gallantry (6-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :5: Willie Way (9-1): Has a preference for running on the dirt much more than he does on the turf, settled near the rear going two wide in the first turn but a little more than half-way had to be taken up seriously when it looked as if Sharp Sailor (73) came into his path. Was 5 wide entering the second turn, moved even wider when they reached the stretch all the while looking full of run but was never going to catch the high weight favourite Prawn Baba (92) for John Size.

Race 8 :12: Super Wise (7-2): Was involved in the race where My Beginner’s Luck took a left turn and bothered a few runners with the big winner Ivictory being one of them. When My Beginner’s Luck came back together after drifting out he came back over on Super Wise and forced Purton to take up on him costing him his action and a couple lengths, was never going to catch the winner but beat the rest with ease.

Race 10 :10: Diamond Dragon (70): Broke with his two front feet off the ground which is not significant what with his late running style, settled mid-pack while the eventual winner Agree (69) was loose on the lead, midway down the backside he started to fight Rawiller for the bit and began climbing pretty significantly, this went on for at least 500 metres. Entering the stretch it looked as if he took a slight bobble, he quickly recovered but had nowhere to run being stuck behind a wall of four and not able to get out with Calculation (77) and Kiram (69) pinning him in, finally at the 250 mark Rawiller took him back for room he then closed on the winner but ran out of room late while switching off his proper lead foot at the 50 metre mark, he galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Race 10 :11: Sacred Ibis (67): Was put on the list two races back but he’s had the unlucky draw of catching a couple nice runners, today he caught the impressive son of Frankel Simply Brilliant (88). Was bumped at the start but with his running style it wasn’t that big of a deal, raced 10 lengths from the leader and 6 behind the eventual winner, moved to the 5 path entering the stretch but instead of continuing outwardly and losing more ground Teetan kept him underneath a rival and he continued closing in the lane, was the only runner who made up any ground on the big winner and beat the next finisher by 2.

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :4: Noble De Love (5-2)
Race 6 :2: Calculation (7-2)

Key Plays:
Race 8 :12: Super Wise (7-2)
Race 9 :6: Volitation (2-1)
Race 10 :11: Sacred Ibis (6-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :6: A Star Luster (48-1)
Race 5 :10: Elusive State (11-1)
Race 7 :5: Dundonnell (14-1)
Race 8 :4: Multi Facets (39-1)
Race 10 :12: Everest (12-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 11, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: Turf: Speed and a good rail
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 258

I have decided to stop making speed figure for the Hong Kong tracks, after extensive research I have come to the conclusion that there is very little difference in my figures and the ones provided by SpeedPro on the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s website. Here is a link to their tutorial on their figures: http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/tutorial.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/tutorial.html) I will provide a link to their SpeedPro page before each race meeting.

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (484): A Star Luster (34) threw his head up at the start and raced very rank down the backside and three wide into the turn, while Don Wongchoy (23) finished a very game third after being three wide in the turn while not getting any cover. Flying Noble (47) sat right off the pace two wide and found a hole as soon as they straightened up in the stretch and ran away from this field without much effort. Vara Pearl (40) ran right behind the winner but was never going to catch him, while Happy Beauty (36) closed well in the stretch after racing at the rear in the early potion of the race.

Race 2 (485): Both Laugh Out Loud (46) and Rocket Go (40) were both extremely slow out of the gate, My Winner (51) was bumped sideways when Stellar Feeling (52) came out immediately as soon as the gates opened and then became rank while travelling three wide in the turn. Shanghai Dragon (54) started to climb half-way thru the turn when he was looking for running room while he was stuck in on the rail, this continued until the 250 metre mark, then couldn’t muster enough speed to catch the winner. Golden Dash (66) dueled on the lead and was helped with his main rivals having more difficult trips. Destin (54) raced wide and wasn’t fast enough to chase Golden Dash down. Leisured Feet (55) looked poised to make a run but flattened out mid-stretch.

Race 3 (486): Beauty Prince (91) was allowed to set a very pedestrian pace and by the time they reached the stretch the race was for who was going to run second and third. Fight Hero (95) stumbled out of the gate, and Seven Heavens (82) was rank entering the first turn.

Race 4 (487): Fire And Gold (52) leaped out of the gate losing a couple lengths to the field and never recovered afterwards. Good Choice Ahead (41) became unbalanced in the turn when he wanted to move outside by wasn’t allowed by the eventual winner Amazing Satchmo (53) who was racing three wide uncovered. He moved to the front at the top of the lane and was ready for a fight to the finish, at the same time Rawiller on Noble De Love (54) was riding like he was on the second coming of Secretariat and waited too long to get into him and allowed Amazing Satchmo to keep his momentum going and was outrun to the wire (pinheads). The habitual second place runner Bingo (44) was covered up on the rail and was never allowed to fully extend his legs. The Full Bloom (44) was gaining on the leaders near the wire but had to deal with too much traffic early in the stretch to make up the difference.

Race 5 (488): Bugboy Wong made a terrible mistake moving Golden Sleep (59) to the front after going wide in the first turn while the front runners were setting a very fast pace. Then Whyte did the same thing with Enreaching (53), it eventually did both of them in. Other than going five wide into the stretch, winner Remarkable (57) had a pretty uneventful trip and out finished Quick Return (62) who also was wide in the turn after being a little rank earlier in the going. Elusive State (50) had no response when Enreaching looked him in the eye at the top of the stretch and quickly succumbed to him. Hay Run (60) closed in the stretch after having to weave thru some traffic issues, didn’t pick up any points and will be allowed to re-race at Class 4, hopefully at 1,800 metres.

Race 6 (489): After going into the first turn 6 wide the apprentice Wong on Gran Master (63) rushed him to the lead, his race at that moment was over in waiting. Good move by O Doleuze on Calculation (87) to let him go, he took back and waited for him to tire and come back to him, and drew away entering the stretch under a hand ride. Royal Performance (75) was bet down to 7-2 after not racing since last May, was very rank entering the first turn when Super Chic (71) came into his path, he eventually beat the rest pretty easily to the wire, should improve off that effort. Willie Way (75) made a move on the turn but swung out to the 8 path at the top of the stretch and there was no way that was going to work out for him, Berry continues to show me he doesn’t deserve to ride in Hong Kong. Travel Emperor (63) was wide thru-out and Faithful Trinity (65) made a workout move on the backside.

Race 7 (490): Dundonnell (111) break on his knees and then was way off balance when he was trying to recover, put a line thru this out for him. Magic Legend (100) who likes it on the front end had to be steadied soon after the gate when Callan on Peniaphobia (111) came over onto him, it resulted in him getting a 2 day suspension. The classy winner Amazing Kids (126) waited for the front runners to tire while racing near the rail, at the 250 mark Prebble reminded him why they were there, he switched leads and finished out very nicely. Fabulous One (103) showed some heart after setting a quick time in the turn but was probably just outclassed by the winner. The race was the beginning of three bad rides by Teetan on the day, never tried to find cover in the race and went four wide in the turn on House Of Fun (103). Magic Legend closed in the stretch after his issues at the start, Born In China (111) may need to return to Happy Valley.

Race 8 (491): Purton took full advantage of the rail drawing and the light weight on Super Wise (73) sitting behind a quick duel on the front end and waiting for his opening to pounce and out finished some rivals who were running into a little trouble. The first time Hong Kong runner Harmony Hero (75) was bet very heavily but you had to be very nervous when he came on the track and refused to behave himself to the gate. Then Berry (again) was unable to find a way near the rail and had to go 4 wide without any cover, hopefully he’ll have a different rider next time and a better draw. Go Public (66) was next to the winner entering the stretch but was outrun to a hole they were both trying to get to, Star Shine (72) refused to split a couple runners in front of him in the stretch then had to maneuver around when Orionds (66) started to tire and drifted out into his path. Lucky Dollar (78) needed the race after being away since January.

Race 9 (492): Fiama (70) was bumped pretty hard at the start when Raging Blitzkrieg 76() drifted outwardly at the start, also at the break first time Hong Kong starter Blazing Partners (70) was steadied. The chalk Volitation (74) had no excuses in the effort he put in, was in a perfect spot entering the stretch while getting a nice duel in front of him and when Teetan asked for something, there was nothing there from him. Chung Wah Spirit (74) looked like he was going challenge for the top spot but as soon as he straightened up at the top of the lane the winner ran away from him, the winner Sun Touch (73) dueled early and still had plenty in the tank to run away from the field without much encouragement by bugboy Mo. Fiama who had the incident early on was flying late.

Race 10 (493): Diamond Dragon (70) tried to duel with the eventual winner even with Nash trying to retain him from doing it, which is strange what with him a deep closer most of the time. Lightweight winner Everest (69) as mentioned earlier fought on the lead and still had enough to hold off three challengers at the line. Both Unicorn Jewellery (74) and Sangria (63) closed late but were too far back to catch Everest. Then there’s Teetan’s ride on Sacred Ibis (67), it was just bad, real bad.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 (485): #3 Shanghai Dragon (54): In his third lifetime start after he showed a very impressive debut two back when he ran 3rd a half-length back to Eighty Eighty (60) then ran 2 lengths behind Silver Fig (57) in his next race. Picked up the top rider Purton for this race (Moreira was suspended on this day), he was able to get him into the race soon after the break then heading into the turn Zach got him to take back and let Multimax (44) and the eventual winner Golden Dash (66) fight it out of the front end. At the 700 metre mark he started to fight Purton when he was wanting to run but he was now trapped in on the rail, he finally started to relax at 300 metres, unfortunately was still blocked and then had to move down near the rail when Multimax started to tire and drifted out into his lane and finished evenly afterwards.

Race 8 (491): #2 Harmony Hero (75): After 2 easy wins in Australia and some impressive barrier trials he was bet down as the 3-2 favourite. When he came onto the track he really started acting up and continued this behaviour all the way to the gate. He did draw a very unfavourable gate with the short run to the turn in a 1,200 metre race, at the start he broke a step slow then make a quick move to the leaders but Berry was unable to find any room near the wire and was forced four wide while not getting any cover. He was passed by the winner Super Wise (73) who had a much easier trip at the top of the stretch, he flattened out soon afterwards and finished evenly. He should improve off the experience of an actual true right handed race.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. March 14, 2018 Fifty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 67 degrees Thunderstorms 80% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good (at the moment)

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180314_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180314_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html) (SpeedPro)
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :8: Peace Connection (7-2): Is 2 for 39 lifetime with 9 seconds and is coming off the Vet’s list for a lame front left leg (his lead leg in the stretch).

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 321 (Winners: 1st & 8th, second: 2nd & 13th)
Race 2 :8: Play It (9-2)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :3: Ocean Roar (18-1)
Race 4 :3: King’s Man (6-1)
Race 5 :2: Bold Elegance (6-1)
Race 7 :8: Smart Declaration (7-1)
Race 8 :3: Lucky Girl (11-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 2 :8: Play It (9-2)
Race 4 :8: Glory Star (2-1)

Horses for courses:
None

Distance specialists:
Race 7 :1: Moment Of Power (9-2)

Class specialists:
None


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 :5: Sharpmind (4-1)
Race 7 :4: General Iron (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :6: Idyllic Wind (10-1)
Race 4 :5: King Bountiful (9-1)
Race 5 :9: The Happy Bunch (17-1)
Race 8 :5: Chater Legend (8-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 14, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 426

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (494): Treasure And Gold (44) Was under a tight hold while he went under the wire after being stuck behind a wall of runners mid-stretch. Raichu (38) was rank and wide in the turn and was outrun by the winner with less than 100 metres to go. Exponents (23) was blocked in the stretch and King’s Steed (20) was a length slow out of the gates. Scarborough Fair (34) was a quick pull up by Leung soon after the wire.

Race 2 (495): Longshot winner Multigogo (55) had a perfect trip on the front end and was all out to hold off the closing favourite Great Joy (59), who raced on the rail in company but was too far back to make up the difference on the lone speed winner. Play It (47) was bet down after a month break from the races and was three wide in the second turn, Sempiternal (44) was quarter horsed after the start but was not able to get near the leader. Daring Heart (51) was two lengths slow out the barrier then started to buck soon afterwards, then became rank on the backside, he is demanded to run a couple barrier trials by the stewards before he is allowed to return to racing.

Race 3 (496): You couldn’t ask for a better trip by Peace Combination (56), breaking from the rail sat behind two runners killing each other on the front end and getting the outside one to drift outwards entering the stretch and giving him a hole to quickly run away from the field. Longshot Flying Monkey (56) was closing in on him at the wide while never changing leads and Peace N Prosperity (60) was wide and not fast enough to catch the winner. Nashashuk (45) was 2 lengths slow but did make a nice move late in the stretch, all the while Sharpmind (53) was being blocked for running room mid-stretch.

Race 4 (497): Aeroluminance (41) and Polymer Luck (46) both set fast early fractions for 9 furlongs but then I guess bugboy Poon was feeling lonely so he decided to move My Blessing (41) right into the fast pace on the backside, it eventually cost all of them. King Bountiful (54) was slow out of the gate after drawing the outside post, Excellence (38) threw his head at the break. King’s Man (61) raced on the rail in the third flight behind the fast pace and had to hold off the troubled starter King Bountiful and Glory Star (47) who was flying at the wire. Contribution (53) and The Sylph (55) were both wide in both turns.

Race 5 (498): Bond Elegance (58) sat in the cat bird seat on the rail behind Nice Fandango (49) who had been away from the races since January and drew the outside post and Whyte probably had to use him up more than he wanted to on getting to the lead, he was just a little short and should improve with the effort. Buoyant Boy (54) closed late when Teetan asked him for run and almost got up after travelling wide in the turn, The Happy Bunch (46) and Rookie Star (44) were both blocked in the stretch with the latter probably needing to go a little further than 6 furlongs.

Race 6 (499): Generous Heart (74) finally got a trip where he could fire his best, sitting in the third flight without any company around he was able to relax, moved to the three path in the turn, then shifted outwards to clear running entering the stretch and by the 200 mark was looking like a runaway winner. Sir Redalot (80) didn’t have much response for the winner and giving away 13 pounds to him didn’t help matters. After travelling wide in the turn High Five (69) just didn’t have enough in him to catch the top two, while Double Valentine (62) had no excuse not to hold on.

Race 7 (500): Money Boy (77) was rank in the turn while full of run, then had to wait for running room at the top of the lane and when it became available he ran to the wire looking like a 8-5 chalk instead of a $52 winner. Moment Of Power (77) was probably compromised by the early pace duel on the backside and him throwing a shoe heading into the turn. Storm Signal (73) didn’t have the final kick he needed after breaking a little slow out of the gate. General Iron (70) looked like he refused to split Storm Signal and the rail mid-stretch.

Race 8 (501): Strange ride by Purton on Lucky Girl (79), he had been showing early speed in his last two races in a higher class, but Zach took him back soon after the start and then couldn’t find room to get over to the rail in the first turn. Then tried to force the pace while chasing a lone speed High Volatility (68) who was setting a slow pace, but was not able to reach him and was pretty much eased in the last 100 metres, he looked very sore in the back in his gallop out. There was no excuse for High Volatility’s lackluster showing in the stretch after the pedestrian pace he was allowed to set. Winner Litterateur (91) looked to become unbalanced when heading out of the short turn, but soon recovered and raced on the rail while finding a hole in the stretch and drew away for an easy win. Chater Legend (80) had no response for the easy winner. Circuit Glory (81) finished well after going 3 wide in the final turn.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 4 (497) #5 King Bountiful (54): Has had the worse luck of late at the draw with 10, 11 and today’s 12 post in his last three races. Was two lengths slow out of the gate which in all reality was a good thing for him, but after about 50 metres he looked like he wanted to lay down and take a nap, by the time they entered the backside he was over11 lengths off the leader. By the time the field had reached the final turn he was back in contention, and with Chadwick not panicking and sending him wide, he kept his head saved ground on the rail, he did for a moment run into some traffic issues but fought thru and was gaining on the winner King’s Man (61) and almost got up in the last step.

Race 5 (498) #7 Nice Fandango (49): Had been away from racing since early January and was bet down as the 7-2 favourite even after drawing the dreaded 12 post in the short runs to the crooked turn going 6 furlongs. He was able to get to the lead but probably a little quicker than trainer Fownes would have liked, then fought Whyte for a while when he tried to get him to relax on the lead. He held the lead until the 100 metre mark and finally threw in the towel with 50 to go, hopefully he’ll be sharper with the out next time and will be taken just off the lead and get a better barrier draw.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #8 Peace Combination (56): Going to play that he doesn’t get a perfect trip like he got in today’s race next time out.

F.Y.I. The Hong Kong Derby is the 8th race on this Sunday's card.

[Pensacola Pete]

Anyone know why Amwager has the Sat night cards but not the Wed night?

The Happy Valley card is on usually on Wednesday evening in Hong Kong, which runs around 7:15 a.m. (EDT) on Wednesday morning. Amwager includes it in its Wednesday lineup, and that gets reset around 5:30 a.m. Note that Amwager almost never has the live video feed for the Happy Valley card. You can find it on DRF (url provided in this thread) TwinSpires, TVG (mixed in with several other things), RTN (pay for), etc.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. March 18, 2018 (Derby Day) Fifty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 74 degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180318_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180318_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 10 :12: Dukedom (5-2): Is only 1 for 21 in Hong Kong and is SpeedPRO figures are nothing special with others in here that are even if not higher than his top races.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 376 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 5th)
Race 2 :6: Red Horse (8-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Pingwu Spark (9-2)
Race 4 :4: Victory Boys (8-1)
Race 6 :8: Apollo’s Choice (9-2)
Race 8 :10: Rattan (64-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 3 :7: Booming Delight (5-1)
Race 6 :7: What Else But You (9-2)
Race 7 :10: Iron Boy (15-1)
Race 8 :1: Nothingilikemore (7-2)
Race 8 :10: Rattan (66-1)
Race 9 :1: Perpetual Joyance (8-1)
Race 9 :3: Super Fluke (6-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 3 :6: Pingwu Spark (9-2)
Race 6 :7: What Else But You (9-2)
Race 8 :1: Nothingilikemore (7-2)
Race 8 :3: Ping Hai Star (7-1)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :1: Pakistan Star (4-5): Had been away from the races since he stopped abruptly on the backside in last year’s Premier Plate. Drew the rail and was very slow out of the gate when he took a nice leap when they opened, then was forced to chase the eventual winner Time Warp (126), in the stretch he looked raring to go but Purton on the winner didn’t leave any room in on the rail for him to get thru so Chadwick had to wait while being trapped with Werther (126) getting the jump on him on the run to Time Warp on his outside. Moved outside at the 150 mark but was unable to make the close at the wire while racing in between Werther and Seasons Bloom (126), should improve off that effort as long as he doesn’t go crazy again and stop running.

Race 5 :5: Seventy Seventy (4-1): Was bet down as the 2-1 favourite in a pretty tough Class 4 going 1,200 metres with the services of Purton om board. Raced 5 lengths off the leader Lucky Lucky who was setting a quick first fraction, he was full of run entering the stretch while being herded down on the rail, he became rank for an extended period of time while Purton was trying to find some running room. He quickly accelerated when Purton was able to straighten him up but was outrun to the wire by a more experienced runner, he did tire in the last 50 metres switching back off his proper lead, should improve off this effort.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 :1: Pakistan Star (4-5)
Race 5 :5: Seventy Seventy (4-1)
Race 10 :1: Baba Mama (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 :3: Enormous Honour (21-1)
Race 3 :4: Southern Legend (20-1)
Race 4 :3: Goldfield (67-1)
Race 7 :2: Waldorf (16-1)
Race 10 :10: Enjoyable Success (71-1)


Will be holding a live forum tonight during the races.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 18, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: Very strong Rail
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 446

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (502): Red Elysees (55) and Desmos (55) were both slow from the gate, Electric Lightning (51) was able to get an easy lead before the turn then Teetan slammed on the brakes forcing everyone to check up their rides, he had no excuses why he couldn’t hold on after that pace he was able to set. Winner Smart Charade (56) got lucky finding a hole to run thru in the stretch after being blocked for most of it and got up paying $236 on a $2 win ticket. Red Elysees, Enormous Honour (57) and Top Score (53) were forced four wide in the turn after the pace was slowed down, Charity Wings (44) ran into some traffic issues at the top of the stretch but when clear lacked a final kick. Viva Council (43) and Dashing Dart (44) both were in position to get up but were outrun in the last 100 metres by the longshot winner. Top weight Let Us Win (60) entered the stretch 9 wide and never got into the race.

Race 2 (503): Lucky Shiny Day (52) never made it to the paddock, he acted up and cut his hind legs and was scratched on the advisement of the track vet. Second time starter Come On Wongchoy (50) leaped out of the gate costing him at least a length to the field. Mighty Maverick (54) had to be steadied when Rawiller on Smiling Charm (60) came into his path on the backside costing Nash a 2 day suspension. The slight favourite winner Sonic Fighter (63) was able to save ground on the turn moved off of it entering the stretch and was the recipient of a trouble trip from the second place runner Vital Spring (51), who had to be checked up when moving to the lead at the 300 metre mark. Moreira’s ride Doctors Delight (45) had been away from the track since December and was a little short in condition.

Race 3 (504): When nobody wanted to take the lead, Schofield let longshot Southern Legend (123) to it and the rest chased him till mid-stretch, then Pingwu Spark (111) looked like he was going go right by, but the pace setter fought to the wire while just holding on. Pakistan Star (123) fell back as soon as he looked Pingwu Spark in the eye at the top of the stretch and never made a serious challenge to the top two. Joyful Trinity (111) was a little rank soon after the start and was unable to make up the difference in the lane. Beauty Only (120) looks like he needs a break from racing for a while.

Race 4 (505): Amazing Agility (66) and Bullish Glory 60() were both a couple lengths slow from the gate. Winner Grand Chancellor (81) saved ground in the turns, was in tight entering the stretch but did find some room mid-stretch and out finished Feerless Fire (69), Victory Boys (80) and Giant Turtle (75) to the wire. The most eventful race was given by Consort (83) who was blocked for at least 150 metres at the top of the stretch then when he had running room he had to check up at the 280 mark when Goldfield (77) drifted out into him, he then closed well afterwards. Zinglong (77) was also affected by the incident having to take up when Consort was being steadied.

Race 5 (506): First time starters Fun Times (52) and Golden Four (52) were a length behind the field from the gate, while Little Bird (50) became very rank soon after the break. Favourite winner Handsome Bo Bo (68) was able to get to the lead with little effort and the race was over by the time he reached the stretch while never being challenged. First time starter Exhilarating Time (53) with Moreira was bet down to 4-1 as the second betting choice, was never going to challenge for the win but did beat the rest with ease. Glittering Armour (48) was 4 wide going into the turn then was steadied at the 220 mark when a tiring Seventy Seventy (54) drifted out into him. Honest Way (54) closed in the stretch after being three wide in the turn running against the rail bias.

Race 6 (507): Betting favourite What Else But You (87) had been away from the races since May of 2017 with a lame front left leg, was a length slow out of the gate, and California Joy (81) was pinched back after the start. Winner People’s Knight (89) raced in the part of the track where you wanted to be today, on the rail. He was able to stay on it when the tiring pace setter Almababy (88) drifted out leaving room for him to get thru. Racing Supernova (100) who also saved ground in the turn made a run at the winner after being blocked for a moment at the top of the lane, lost on a bob of a head while giving up 14 pounds. Apollo’s Choice (87) looked to be in a good position but was outrun in the lane.

Race 7 (508): Top weight Wishful Thinker (79) leaped out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths and for all intents and purposes his race was over, as was Infinity Endeavour (76) getting away slowly soon after the break. Good decision by Purton heading into the turn on Lucky Hero (77), he decided to take back when there were 3 others all vying for the lead, unfortunately he was stuck out wide running against the rail bias. The eventual winner Always Win (78) too took back, but unlike Zach’s ride Yeung was able to gain a position on the rail, and outran Lucky Hero to the wire. Iron Boy (65) who raced behind Always Win on the turn was blocked half-way thru the stretch and was unable to gain the momentum to catch the top two finishers. Photon Willie (60) and Sam’s Love (60) ran respectable races after getting outside draws and racing against the bias wide in the turn.

Race 8 (509): The 128th running of The BMW Hong Kong Derby: Moreira pushed Nothingilikemore (112) out of the gate to try and get a running position after breaking from gate 13 with the short run to the first turn, the question regarding him came true at the top of the stretch on his distance limitations against runners of this class. Patriot Hero (82) and Doctor Geoff (88) were wide in both turns, while Ruthven (104) and Rocketeer (91) were extremely wide in the first turn. Winner Ping Hai Star (112) raced at the rear until the field entered the stretch, swung out to the 6 path entering the stretch found room soon afterwards ran away from the field for a very impressive win. The betting favourite Exultant (105) came into the stretch 8 wide and was unable to chase down the winner. Singapore Sling (106) had no excuse and was outrun to the wire.

Race 9 (510): First time Hong Kong runner for john Moore Taking Aim (82) was a little slow at the start then went 3 wide in the turn and stopped badly in the stretch. Super Fluke (99) raced near the rear of the field and drifted out to the 7 path in the stretch and Prebble had to ask for everything he had to get him up at the wire against California Fortune (91) who looked the part of a winner with 200 to go only to be beaten on a bob of the head. Dragon General (84) was flying at the end after running at the rear for most of the race, he quickly passed the top two runners in the gallop out. Gunnison (86) with Moreira on, in his first try on the turf closed to be beaten by less than 2 lengths while being caught in the wash for the entire run in the stretch.

Race 10 (511): The favourite Dukedom (67) took a slight leap out of the gate only costing him maybe a half-length but just enough for him to be caught up in the field on the backstretch, and then soon afterwards started climbing and fighting Whyte. With the slow pace that was being set by Encouraging (78) and Circuit Hassler (83), Doleuze moved Enjoyable Success (66) to the lead 3 wide, he had enough by the 300 metre mark and threw out the anchor. At the same time, Circuit Hassler was getting the jump on the field and with the aid of the rail bias it carried him to a ¾ length win. Nice effort by Coby Boy (79) who had been away from racing for 8 months, while Starship (62) spent half the length of the stretch looking for running room, and was gaining with every step late. Baba Mama (79) and Dukedom were also gaining late but ran out of running room at the line.


Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 (503) #11 Vital Springs (51): Raced right off the pace while running on the rail which was by far the best place to be that day, was full of run entering the stretch but was now boxed in on the rail. At the 300 metre mark room became available, but as soon as he stuck his head into the opening Smiling Charm (60) came down onto him forcing Ho to take him up stopping all of his momentum from going forward, all the while winner Sonic Fighter (63) was taking full advantage of his circumstance. Once he was removed of that problem he swung in behind the winner and regathered himself and was gaining late on Sonic Fighter at the wire.

Race 6 (507) #7 What Else But You (87): Had been away from the track for 10 months, and was well received at the windows for trainer Size being bet down as the 2-1 favourite. He hit the side of the gate at the start causing him to lose a couple lengths to the field, commenced to race at the back half of the pack, half-way thru the turn moved to the three path while racing against a very strong rail bias, closed well after Teetan asked him for run midway thru the stretch.

Race 9 (510) #8 Gunnison (86): In his second race in Hong Kong after unimpressive 7th on the dirt course, Size picked up the services of Moreira for the out. He was bumped slightly soon after the break, then raced mid-pack on the biased rail, it took him a while to get going in the stretch while being in heavy traffic with no place to fully extend himself. Moreira gave him one love tap on his hip early in the stretch but other than that he never even showed him the stick, he was only beaten by a length and a quarter.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 6 (507) #9 People’s Knight (89): Had a perfect trip while racing on the rail bias and getting a 14 pound weight advantage. Moreira had to go all out on him to hold on at the wire, he looked very tired in the gallop out.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. March 21, 2018 Fifty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 57 degrees Clear 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180321_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180321_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 :8: Shanghai Master (5-2): Don’t trust bugboy Ho on a favourite especially on a Class 3 runner in a race that looks very even.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Wealthy Fortune (8-1)
Race 3 :1: Wah May Baby (5-1)
Race 4 :1: Pakistan Baby (9-1)
Race 5 :7: Back In Black (6-1)
Race 7 :4: King Of Mongolia (15-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 3 :3: See Me Now (2-1)
Race 4 :7: Golden Glory (7-5)

Horses for courses:
Race 5 :3: Best Step (5-1)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :8: Nice Fandango (7-2): Had been away from racing since early January and was bet down as the 7-2 favourite even after drawing the dreaded 12 post in the short runs to the crooked turn going 6 furlongs. He was able to get to the lead but probably a little quicker than trainer Fownes would have liked, then fought Whyte for a while when he tried to get him to relax on the lead. He held the lead until the 100 metre mark and finally threw in the towel with 50 to go, hopefully he’ll be sharper with the out next time and will be taken just off the lead and get a better barrier draw.

Race 5 :10: Phantom Falcon (9-2): He has shown a tendency of running second in his career so far, picked up Moreira for the ride and drew the rail in a very tough Class 3 event with 2 young real good runners in Pick Number One (83) and Ugly Warrior (77). He leaped out of the gate costing him a length but more important he would now have to race in the rear while he had been showing early speed of recent, then he had to check up 200 metres away from the gate costing him another couple lengths. Looked to be full of run when he reached the stretch but was now having to deal with slowing traffic in front of him, he moved further away from the rail for running room and closed well afterwards and almost finished in the money, galloped out past the field after the wire.

Race 6 :2: Sichuan Boss (6-1): Was a little slow out of the gate taking a slight leap forward losing him a little less than a length to the field, then rushed himself under a stranglehold under Berry but became pretty rank when he was in the pocket. Finally settled mid-pack in a slowly pace Class 4 race, moved to the three path when Berry decided for him to get into the race moved even wider entering the stretch and was at the front in less than 300 metres since when Tommy had started riding him, ran away from them under a very light ride with plenty in the tank and galloped out with his ears pricking around wondering where everybody was.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 2 :8: Nice Fandango (7-2)
Race 6 :2: Sichuan Boss (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :3: Beaut Beaut (10-1)
Race 4 :9: Noble De Boy (20-1)
Race 7 :6: Outlawed (13-1)

[Pensacola Pete]

You an get the live feed straight from the HKJC here:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEZfsYacZXe3lq7wisO-MHw

Note that the feed doesn't show up until 30 minutes before the first race.

Roku users can fetch the YouTube app and cast the stream directly from the computer or tablet to their TV. Note that it works better if the Roku and computer are both hard-wired (Ethernet) to the router.

[Pensacola Pete]

Never mind. The broadcast is usually in English. Today it's alternating between English and Chinese.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 21, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 370 & 419

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (512): Both Wealthy Fortune (30) and Supernatural (8) became rank in the first run by the grandstand when Lai on Gentleman (18) grabbed him up slowing the pace to almost a walk. At the 850 mark with the slow pace Rispoli decided to make a move to the front on Sweet Bean (35) that turned out to be a winning one. Savannah Wind (40) and Loaded (37) were at least three wide in every turn, and Pearl Furu (36) was in the first turn that may have cost him the race.

Race 2 (513): No excuses for Whyte not to get Nice Fandango (51) home, was allowed an easy lead but hit the wall at the 100 metre mark and staggered home only to be caught at the wire by longshot Happy Bao Bei (59). He raced on the rail a few lengths off the pace setter and was the first one to jump on the tiring pace setter. Lightning Missile (44) who had been away from racing since last October was a step slow from the gate but finished very well in the lane while never really getting any room to extend himself, he was only a 1 ¼ back at the wire and that’s very impressive considering Clipperton never hit him once in the last 200 metres of the race. Looks to be a very soft Class 4 race with 9 runners within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire.

Race 3 (514): Lucky Storm (44) who usually likes to run near the lead was a length slow out of the gate and forced him to race at the rear, while Magic Agility (40) was wide for the entire trip. Unique Joyful (40) was also wide in both turns, but on the backside Chadwick decided to force the issue a little and rushed him into the duel with the eventual winner Planet Star (60). Play It (49) was 6 wide entering the stretch but wasn’t fast enough to catch the winner but only missed top spot by a long neck, See Me Now (56) was a closing third after being steadied at the rear of the field at the 380 mark.

Race 4 (515): Pakistan Baby (62) had been running strictly on the dirt at Sha Tin even though he has shown an affection for the city track, Cruz finally brought him back to Happy Valley and he popped out of the gate was allowed to get an easy lead he did have to struggle home but had just enough to hold off Clear Choice (48) at the wire. Clear Choice looked like he was going to go by, but either he hung or is refusing to pass others when he reaches the leader. Golden Glory (49) was gaining on the top two at the wire and might have gone by but it took him too long to get to his proper lead step in the lane and just missed out by a neck.

Race 5 (516): Habitual front runner Best Step (73) with Purton on after being away from the track since October leaped at the start. Winner Orionids (71) sat a couple lengths off the lone speed runner Gamechangers (72) on the rail and when the pace setter drifted out entering the stretch then refused to switch leads Wong was able to scoot under him and outrun him to the wire. Phantom Falcon (64) most likely lost this race at the draw, was three wide in the turn and just couldn’t overcome the added distance he had to travel versus the winner. Fantastic Feeling (72) closed after having to enter the stretch the widest of all, and Master Albert (65) after being rank early on was three wide in the turn. California Aspar (61) looked very tired passing the wire.

Race 6 (517): A need to lead type I’m A Witness (42) sat and then leaped out of the gate losing three lengths to the rest and his race was over after 2 feet, also at the start Association Fans (43) threw his head and hesitated then was pinched back immediately afterwards. My Blessing (39) and Sichuan Boss (58) were wide in both turns (I curse Tommy Berry) and Ho was unable to get Bo Duke (45) over in the first turn and was 4 wide until half-way on the backside. Winner Mr Kool (54) as Trevor Denman would say ‘looked like he joined them at the quarter poll’, he came flying home and just got by Lucky Time (62) and Spinning Dancer (47) who both had easier trips than our winner.

Race 7 (518): Leung on Silverfield (65) tried to make the backside move to the front, but unfortunately for Lueng’s sake he forced Doleuze on Big Bang Bong (74) to check up costing him a couple race days. Winner Roman Impero (69) was able to get up without too much encouragement by Whyte in the stretch (Doug hit him 8 times compared to Silverfield hit by Leung 22 times!) there should be lots left in the tank next time out. Friends Of Ka Ying (78) closed well after being wide in the turn.

Race 8 (519): The favourite Shanghai Master (74) was a recipient of a perfect trip, 2 wide sitting right behind a duel that the second place finisher Cheerfuljet (70) was having to deal with multiple runners (Exceptional Desire (63) and Good Companion (60)) putting pressure on him. Jade Theatre (79) was outrun in the stretch and nothing closed on the winner late.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (516) #3 Best Step (73): Had been away since last October when he was put on the shelf with a lame left hind leg. Casper was able to secure Purton for the ride so obviously the problem with the hind leg has been solved, at the start he took a nice leap costing him at least a couple lengths to the field but more importantly it took him right out of his comfort zone of running at the front of the pack. Then when he straightened up coming out of the short turn he had to check up and became rank and refused to get into a comfortable gate until half-way in the turn. There was no urging by Zach in lane and galloped out past the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 (515): Pakistan Baby (62): Was all out at the wire after getting a perfect lone speed trip, picks up 5 rating points for a total of 62 which will put him back up to Class 3.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. March 25, 2018 Fifty-eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180325_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180325_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 426 (Winners: 1st, 5th & 7th)
Race 3 :1: Right Call (3-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 :7: Happy Meteor (12-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 3 1 Right Call (3-1)
Race 5 2 Unicorn Jewellery (2-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 5 :2: Unicorn Jewellery (2-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 5 :2: Unicorn Jewellery (2-1)
Race 8 :7: Top Beautiful (5-2)

Class specialists:
Race 3 :1: Right Call (3-1)
Race 10 :2: Starlight (32-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 :1: Right Call (3-1)
Race 8 :1: Baltic Whisper (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 :8: Trendiful (11-1)
Race 9 :2: Doyeni (22-1)
Race 10 :3: Turin Redstar (13-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 25, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: Turf: Speed Awt: Very Speed
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 391 & 437

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (520): Usual front runner Happy Sound (29) showed no early speed and was steadied heading into the turn and then forced to the three path afterwards when Gold Talent (20) started fading in front of him. Longshot wiinner Ever Strong (38) with Purton started the day that had an obvious speed bias on the dirt track, he went straight to the front and from there the track carried him to the wire. Both Trendiful (29) and Carry To Win (24) made up ground in the stretch but were unable to make up the distance on the winner. Winning Controller (39) and Telecom Titan (35) (was slow from the gate) closed in the lane while fighting the bias, but were never going to challenge for top spots.

Race 2 (521): Just Not Listening (51) became restless in the gate when they removed the hood causing him to be tardy out of the gate, at the same time in the far out post Ocean Elite (45) was also a little slow from the barrier and needed running room later in the race, but was unable while full of run. Slight favourite Refined Treasure (71) was able to gain a good position at the break and was allowed to dictate the pace to his liking and drew away for a very easy win. Second betting choice Complacency (58) broke well but doesn’t have the early speed to run with horses like Refined Treasure and fighting a speed bias was too much for him to overcome, may need to go a little further.

Race 3 (522): Good Choice Ahead (40) was about three lengths slow from the field at the start. Moreira on the slight favourite Right Call (65) who was dropping in class and was exiting a key race (huge angle in Hong Kong) was able to get good position soon after the break, after 500 metres he allowed Wong on A Beautiful (58) to take over the lead but sat right behind him waiting for him to tire. Finally with 300 to go Moreira asked and received for a response and fought off two closers at the line, one of them being Empire Star (54) who was bumped sideways at the break then closed in the stretch while staying on the rail against the bias, quickly out galloped past the winner after the wire. Merrygowin (60) was also gaining on the winner racing against the bias, should improve off this effort if he draws a better barrier next time out.

Race 4 (523): Breaking from the 12 barrier Rawiller was gung ho on getting Sum Win Dragon (57) to the lead which he accomplished, unfortunately for his sake it would be his eventual doom, even with the bias helping out (there are some things a bias just can’t do). It was very impolite for Chadwick on Remarkable (57) not to let Wong on Premium Champion (57) over in the first turn forcing him to race 3 wide, which never works out for lesser class runners going marathon distances. Winner Audicity (51) was well placed by Moreira on the rail waiting for Nash on the front runner to quit, moved to the lead half-way in the final turn and held off Je Pense (55) who was stuck behind him at the top of the stretch when room became available down at the rail he closed but ran out of real estate. A decent run by You Have My Word (46) who drew the 13 hole in the gate, was 12 wide entering the stretch and made a nice close but was too far back against the bias.

Race 5 (524): Agree (77) got out to an early lead and jumped on the conveyer belt and was never challenged, while Green Energy (78) raced behind him 2 lengths back and the track also carried him to the line. Tai Smart (62) closed on the outside but never was a serious challenger, but was a good effort considering he was fighting the track. Unicorn Jewellery (74) put in a pretty poor effort for Size and Moreira.

Race 6 (525): First time starter Best Gift (57) and Management Star (45) were 1 length slow out of the gate. Front running type First Beaut (37) was a little slower in the early going and allowed Purton on Elite Boy (66) to jump to the rail and soon grabbed the lead and won by daylight while never being challenged, although he was very green in the lane. Grand Harbour (44) tried to run with the winner early on but wasn’t fast enough to keep up and had enough by the stretch run. Goldie Flanker (53) was four wide throughout the turn, Superior Boy (41) made a run after being wide in the turn while running against the bias.

Race 7 (526): Mythical Emperor (75) stumbled at the start, Wong was lucky enough just to stay on, then was 4 wide in the turn. Again Purton on Perpetual Treasure (83) took advantage of the draw and the bias, went straight to the front and played ‘catch me if you can’. Winning Vangogh (80) dueled with him until about the 350 metre mark but then threw out the anchor. Dragon Master (78) made it very interesting at the end, closing in on the winner after racing mid-pack on the rail.

Race 8 (527): Ace King (64) was caught a little off balance at the start costing him at least a length, was mixed up in the wash later on in the stretch. Winner Baltic Whisper (92) broke well and quickly grabbed the lead and was under a strangle hold under the wire, Wong on Dragon Pioneer (68) rushed up to the winner after breaking on the far outside and was able to hold on for third. Top Beautiful (69) and Mega Heart (79) both put in very dull efforts.

Race 9 (528): Simply Brilliant (94), Easy Go Easy Win (94) and Citron Spirit (94) hooked up at the top of the lane and put in a good fight all the way to the wire. Top weight Eastern Express (95) set the pace early on but couldn’t keep up with the top three mid-stretch. Doyeni (91) closed late but raced too far back on this track make up the distance.

Race 10 (529): Turin Redstar (79) lost a length when Leung had to take up entering the turn when Raging Storm (63) came over into his path, Moreira on Raging Storm tried to make a run at the winner Regency Bo Bo (87) at the top of the lane but just couldn’t reach him and tired late. Regency Bo Bo was able to grab the lead before the turn and was able to hold off and win by 2. Roundabout (69) was rank on the backside, then was blocked early in the stretch, than had to be taken up at the 175 metre mark when Turin Redstar drifted out in front of him because Clipperton on Shamport (74) moved outward for running room, the incident cost Clipperton a suspension. God Of Dragon (76) and Ultimate Glory (68) both closed late while racing too far back on this day’s track.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 3 (522) #7 Empire Star (54) Had closed to finish second in his race before this one at 21-1 against Raging Storm, unfortunately he caught a day when the track was anything but favourable to closers. At the break Smiling Pride came in and bumped him extremely hard knocking him sideways. Rawiller gave a perfect ride saving as much ground as possible in the turn, found space in the stretch and continued to close on the winner only to run out of room at the wire, he quickly galloped out past the winner after the finish line.

Race 10 (529) #3 Turin Redstar (79) Broke well and was in good position but had to be steadied entering the turn when Raging Storm came over onto him, all the while the top weight winner Regency Bo Bo (87) was taking advantage of the track bias. Was interfered with at the 175 metre mark when Clipperton on Shamport moved outward trying to find running room, he never was going to challenge for the win even with the trouble.

Horses to avoid next out:
Will take a close look at any runners who won on this day.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. March 28, 2018 Fifty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180328_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180328_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 :12: The Judge (7-2): Made a move late after going wide in the turn and was outrun by the chalk Har Har Heart (65) (Moreira’s mount in here) in a lower class than here, there looks to be others here that are just quicker than he is.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 390 (Winners: 4th & 10th, second: 5th & 11th)
Race 7 :5: Bold Stich (6-1)

Race 391 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :6: Cheers Conqueror (13-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :7: Agiaal (23-1)
Race 4 :6: Blocker Dee (31-1)
Race 6 :6: Romantic Touch (16-1)
Race 8 :1: Victory Boys (7-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 6 :3: Dinozzo (9-5)

Horses for courses:
Race 5 :8: Prince Harmony (16-1)
Race 6 :4: Horse Of Fortune (7-1)
Race 6 :7: Packing Dragon (9-1)
Race 8 :7: Har Har Heart (5-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 6 :3: Dinozzo (9-5)
Race 7 :7: Powermax (15-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :5: King Bountiful (7-1): Has had the worse luck of late at the draw with 10, 11 and today’s 12 post in his last three races. Was two lengths slow out of the gate which in all reality was a good thing for him, but after about 50 metres he looked like he wanted to lay down and take a nap, by the time they entered the backside he was over11 lengths off the leader. By the time the field had reached the final turn he was back in contention, and with Chadwick not panicking and sending him wide, he kept his head saved ground on the rail, he did for a moment run into some traffic issues but fought thru and was gaining on the winner King’s Man (61) and almost got up in the last step.

Race 4 :4: California Whip (2-1): Had the worse luck drawing in a race where the winning horse Ivictory (107) is now 6 for 7 and breaks the track record for 1,200 metres. Broke just a half-length slow and Purton probably had to use him a little more than he would have liked early on in the race to hold his position, unfortunately he was then forced to chase the winner for the remaining of the trip due to Rispoli taking Fantastic Eight () back and not allowing him to run up front and giving Ivictory the easy lead. He made a couple runs at him, once on the backside and then again in the turn but was unable to head him at any time, he drew off and beat the third place runner by 2 ¾ lengths under pretty much a hand ride (his final figure is above par for the class).

Race 6 :10: Pikachu (14-1): Put in a very nice effort in a class that is probably a little over his head, settled mid-pack in a small size field for Hong Kong while the high weight was setting a very slow early pace. Got to the rear quarter panel of the eventual winner Packing Dragon (104) in the stretch but just wasn’t fast to get any closer.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :3: Sichuan Boss (5-1)
Race 3 :7: Nice Fandango (5-1)
Race 4 :7: Fortune Booth (5-1)
Race 5 :11: Alcari (7-5)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: King Bountiful (7-1)
Race 7 :2: Infinity Endeavour (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 :6: Joyful Moments (23-1)
Race 6 :10: Pikachu (14-1)
Race 7 :6: Healthy Luck (14-1)
Race 8 :11: King’s Man (26-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. April 2, 2018 sixtieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 79 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: S 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180402_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180402_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :9: My Winner (3-1): Had a little trouble in his last race after running pretty even, but I don’t trust horses that were 48-1 in their last without proving he should be 3-1 now.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 479 (Winners: 1st & 9th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :3: Happy Surveys (13-1)
Race 4 :9: Master Viking (15-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :13: Regency Darling (8-1)
Race 3 :6: Extremely Fun (20-1)
Race 4 :9: Master Viking (15-1)
Race 7 :4: Calculation (6-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 3 :8: Star Shine (6-5)
Race 4 :8: Happy Sebring (64-1)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 :5: What Else But You (2-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 7 :2: My Darling (11-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :5: What Else But You (2-1): Had been away from the track for 10 months, and was well received at the windows for trainer Size being bet down as the 2-1 favourite. He hit the side of the gate at the start causing him to lose a couple lengths to the field, commenced to race at the back half of the pack, half-way thru the turn moved to the three path while racing against a very strong rail bias, closed well after Teetan asked him for run midway thru the stretch.

Race 8 :5: Shanghai Dragon (5-1): In his third lifetime start after he showed a very impressive debut two back when he ran 3rd a half-length back to Eighty Eighty (60) then ran 2 lengths behind Silver Fig (57) in his next race. Picked up the top rider Purton for this race (Moreira was suspended on this day), he was able to get him into the race soon after the break then heading into the turn Zach got him to take back and let Multimax (44) and the eventual winner Golden Dash (66) fight it out of the front end. At the 700 metre mark he started to fight Purton when he was wanting to run but he was now trapped in on the rail, he finally started to relax at 300 metres, unfortunately was still blocked and then had to move down near the rail when Multimax started to tire and drifted out into his lane and finished evenly afterwards.

Race 8 :7: Vital Springs (2-1): Raced right off the pace while running on the rail which was by far the best place to be that day, was full of run entering the stretch but was now boxed in on the rail. At the 300 metre mark room became available, but as soon as he stuck his head into the opening Smiling Charm (60) came down onto him forcing Ho to take him up stopping all of his momentum from going forward, all the while winner Sonic Fighter (63) was taking full advantage of his circumstance. Once he was removed of that problem he swung in behind the winner and regathered himself and was gaining late on Sonic Fighter at the wire.

Race 10 :1: Harmony Hero (9-5): After 2 easy wins in Australia and some impressive barrier trials he was bet down as the 3-2 favourite. When he came onto the track he really started acting up and continued this behaviour all the way to the gate. He did draw a very unfavourable gate with the short run to the turn in a 1,200 metre race, at the start he broke a step slow then make a quick move to the leaders but Berry was unable to find any room near the wire and was forced four wide while not getting any cover. He was passed by the winner Super Wise (73) who had a much easier trip at the top of the stretch, he flattened out soon afterwards and finished evenly. Should improve off the experience of an actual true right hand race.

Past watch list runners:
Race 9 :8: Willie Way (38-1)
Race 9 :10: Diamond Dragon (8-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 :1: Red Elysees (5-1)
Race 7 :5: What Else But You (2-1)
Race 8 :5: Shangai Dragon (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 :3: Beauty Energy (29-1)
Race 4 :9: Master Viking (15-1)
Race 6 :13: Viva Council (22-1)
Race 8 :9: Fresh Power (14-1)
Race 9 :8: Willie Way (38-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: March 28, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 479

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (530): Rising Power (21) was 3 lengths slow from the gate which is not unusual with his running pattern as a deep closer (when he does close, which is not often). Cheers Conqueror (31) fought Rawiller for the first half of the race, Happy Century (21) who had been away from the races since last November made a run to the front on the backside and encaged the lone front runner Gobi Storm (28) who had enough by mid-stretch. Winner Golden Kid (39) had a perfect trip after being taken back soon after the break to the rail and found a hole at the top of the lane and out finished Happy Century who probably was a just short. Jolly Amber (24) closed in the stretch but was too far back and lost too much ground coming into the stretch in the 8 path. Vara Pearl (40) and Kwaichung Brothers (39) were wide throughout.

Race 2 (531): King Bountiful () took his usual running position in the back and unlike the last two races didn’t make a run in the stretch, wasn’t helped when Deleuze took him for popcorn and beer entering the stretch. Supreme Witness () became rank when he was outrun early on by Grand Harbour () who probably went too fast early on trying to get that position. Moreira’s ride Money Winner () had no excuses, what with the light weight and saving ground was just outrun by the winner Charity Wings (), nothing special went on in his trip, it was just his day to win. Sichuan Boss () was in tight in the stretch but don’t think he would have gotten up with clear running space.

Race 3 (532): Stand by runner My Honey (40) was bumped and pinched back at the start costing him at least a couple lengths, Travel Successor (47) and Forever Kindness (46) were forced wide in the short turn soon after the break and were unable to find any room near the rail and both went 4 wide in the turn for home. Nice Fandango (51) showed his usual early speed and then commenced to do his normal routine of giving it up in the stretch, he has one lifetime win and that’s on the dirt, I have no idea why Casper continues to keep him on the grass, especially with his running style and the way that track has been playing lately.? The second choice winner Hero Time (63) took full advantage of the draw, he saved ground and waited for the front running quitter and only had to outrun that one to the wire. The chalk Golden Glory (49) had no excuses other than being three wide, but was even at the top of the lane with the winner and had nothing for him. Split Of A Second (51) just wasn’t fast enough.

Race 4 (533): Breaking from the 10 gate Sanna wasn’t able to get Almababy (86) over and was forced five wide in the short turn after the start and was wide throughout, and dropping in class Fabulous One (103) was climbing down the entire backstretch. Winner California Whip (98) settled a few lengths off the front runner E-Super () who probably went a little too fast early on, California Whip pulled even with E-Super at the top of the lane and in a nice drive to the wire just had enough to get by. Magic Legend (100) and Jumbo Luck (82) were in good position entering the stretch but had no response for the leaders, Fortune Booth (87) tried down on the rail but was unable to get near him.

Race 5 (534): Sir Redalot (80) threw a fit in the gate and was scratched by the track vet. Prince Harmony (74) was able to grab an early lead and Wong was able to get him home, even though he drifted in at the 100 metre mark (costing Wong 2 race days) interfering Jumbo Happiness (75) just a bit who drifted down unto a tiring Alcari (63) with Moreira on and Amazing (76). Charity Glory (78) and Joyful Moments (70) were gaining late but ran out of ground, and Double Valentine (62) couldn’t muster the final energy he needed to get by Prince Harmony.

Race 6 (535): Pikachu (88) was a length slow at the start, and in the first turn Happilababy (87) was four wide and continued to race wide afterwards. After travelling three wide in the first turn Poon made a premature move on Packing Dragon (104) to the lead while Whyte on Romantic Touch (107) was setting a very quick pace, this was helping out the eventual winner Gold Mount (120) who was racing at the rear of the field saving ground in the turns. Sanna stayed on the fence waiting for a hole and ran thru it when it became available, unlike others who would have taken him to the middle of the track and finished mid-pack. Eagle Way (118) was beaten by on a head bob after coming into the stretch 4 wide.

Race 7 (536): Poon on Healthy Luck (70) went too fast early on and had enough by the 100 metre mark in the stretch. Sparkling Dragon (66) who had been away since December was bet down as the 2-1 favourite but was outrun by Poon early on, he looked to be in a good shape for the stretch drive but as soon as he got to the front he tired and was quickly passed by the winner Infinity Endeavor (82). He raced mid-pack 2 off, moved outward to the 6 path entering the stretch and outclassed the field to the wire. Storm Signal (73) had no excuses in getting passed in the stretch, sat right off the quitter while saving ground moved to the front but couldn’t match the winner. Bold Stitch (72) ran even with the winner, even after having to split him and the tiring Sparkling Dragon. The bad ride award goes to: Sanna, at the rear fans out Spring Win (63) to the 8 path entering the stretch for no apparent reason.

Race 8 (537): Second time Hong Kong starter Glorious Artist (71) leaped at the start then was pinched back costing him a couple lengths to the field. Yeung wasn’t able to get The Judge (61) to relax early on when Play Wise (71) grabbed the lead and then Yeung had to slightly steady him when Schofield grabbed the leader and slowed the front runner down (Play Wise was a quick pull up soon after the wire). At the 900 metre mark Rawiller moved winner Sharp Sailor (86) into a striking position but was stuck out three wide in the turn, as soon as he entered the stretch the race was over, he drew off to a very impressive win. He should show better next time in Class 2 than he did earlier in his career off his last two eforts. Victory Boys (80) made a move but was never going to catch the winner, and good on Prebble for not abusing him in a futile effort on catching him, save it for later. Har Har Heart (65) was taken by Moreira 4 wide in the turn for home without any cover, and Faithful Trinity (63) and our slow starter Glorious Artist were blocked in the stretch.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 7 (536) #10 Sparkling Dragon (66): After winning his first two races he was a little flat against Win Beauty Win (71) in the next, he was then placed on the shelf for 3 months. After the break he was bet down as the 2-1 favourite in his first try at the downtown course, unfortunately he wasn’t able to get the lead where he’s most comfortable. Raced a couple lengths off the leader 2 wide in the turn, moved to the four path for the run home but as soon as he grabbed the lead he started to tippy toe a little and was out run to the wire by Infinity Endeavour (82) who was on his game that night. Now that he has a race under him, he should improve off that effort.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (534) #8 Prince Harmony (74): Had a perfect trip and had a significant weight advantage against the second place finisher, now will pick up 6 pounds for his next out.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: April 2, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 401, 452 & 491 (4 winners!)

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (538): Secret Agent (36) was scratched at the gate by the advice of the track vet. Slight 4-1 favourite The Champ (36) with Moreira on who had been away since New Year’s Day, was at least 5 lengths slow from the gate and his day was done. Also, Newswire Free (37) was slow from the gate as was Golden Cannon (34) who was rank when the gates opened and then was pinched back to the rear off the field. Longshot winner Dragon Dance (35) was able to grab the lead soon after the start and only had to deal with a slight pressure by Hot Hot Pepper (40) who couldn’t make a run at the winner in the stretch, the winner just held on by a bob of the head at the wire holding off light weight longshot The Greatest (31) who was closing after getting a rail trip in the turn.

Race 2 (539): Super Clan (50) was scratched at the gate by the advice of the track vet with a lame front left leg. Poon on Gracious Ryder (45) breaking from the outside post went straight to the lead but did it too quickly, costing in the stretch. Sanna on La Bomba (50) tried but wasn’t quick enough to run with the speed burner and tired badly in the stretch. The winner My Winner (57) raced in the third flight 2 wide, moved outside the three runners that were the second flight and out ran one of them Adonis (44) to the wire. Regency Darling (45) who likes it on the lead but was unable in here and was three wide with no cover, total throw out race, and Empire Of Patch (57) in only his second career start closed well while being caught up in the wash and running very green while doing so.

Race 3 (540): The longshot and eventual last place runner Waldorf (73) was slow and unbalanced at the start, while Go Public (64) was three wide in the turn with no cover racing for the lead. The winner Star Shine (78) sat right off the leaders on the rail drifted out to the three path when Go Public drifted out entering the stretch and scooted into the hole and had to hold off a light weight closer Royal Mojito (64) who probably was just a little too far back to make up the difference, Star Shine looked like he started to wait on others when he was getting near the wire. First time Hong Kong runner Mission Tycoon (73) with the Brazilian on was rank early and was a little green in the lane while not changing leads until it was too late in the stretch, he’ll be a nice runner eventually. Berry’s ride Great Profit (78) looked uncomfortable in the gallop out, and look for Sumstreetsumwhere (80) to go longer, he was flying at the end without being asked by Ho.

Race 4 (541): Longshot Letsgofree (43) was a step slow from the gate and then pinched back to the rear, and first time starter Top Strike (52) was rank on the backside and 4 wide in the turn without any cover. Charming Bachelor (59) had to take up on the backside when the heavy bet first time starter Aerohappiness (59) came over onto him. Aerohappiness raced three wide without cover and moved to the leaders in the turn and outclassed this field while racing very green in the lane, he too is going to be a very good horse. Little Bird (52) raced on the lead while setting some pretty slow early fractions, he was just beaten by a better horse, Destin (54) and Happy Sebring (52) closed well after getting no help in the pace situation and drawing the bear winner. Crème Brulee (46) looked very uncomfortable in the gallop out.

Race 5 (542): Super Fun (70) was a length slow out of the barrier, and first time starter in Hong Kong Cerefino (71) ducked in while starting on the rail. Winning Supreme (62) with Wong on board set the pace, while it wasn’t all that fast he did probably got away from him a bit too much and gave it up to the chalk Raging Blitzkrieg (78) who had no excuse not to win, sat right off the front runner and passed him with ease. He finished evenly but didn’t have much for the winner Always Win (85) who when asked half-way thru the stretch by Wong responded well and out finished the favourite. Everbrave (62) spent the entire turn trying to get out while three wide, look for an equipment change next out. Radiant Bunny (61) was never going to challenge for the top two positions, but probably is given a pass after going three wide in the turn without any cover.

Race 6 (543): Viva Council (43) was able to set the pace and didn’t give it up until the 75 metre mark (he should give Happy Valley a try, may suit his running style better than Sha Tin). Art Of Raw (45) and Good For You (51) were the widest in the turn without any cover, and Telecom Man (53) was probably ridden a little too confidently by Rawiller, held back on the go button too long. The winner Red Elysees (60) was blocked entering the stretch after racing on the rail in the turn, then moved to the outside and finished very well (the handicappers were very nice to him, only giving him 5 points allows him to run at this class level again next time out). Presidentparamount (42) and Enjoy Life (47) made it a little difficult on the winner but lacked the final push to get by him, and Amazing Satchmo (53) made a huge run in the stretch but raced too far back off the pace early on in the race. Something looked to have gone wrong with Royale Ellegance (52) at the 175 metre mark, he ducked in after shying from the stick and never recovered afterwards.

Race 7 (544): Calculation (88) took the lead into the stretch but had no response for the winner when he began to tire and switched back to his wrong lead step, What Else But You (96) saved ground in the turn, moved to the leader at the 200 metre mark and drew off to a very easy win under a hand ride for Moreira, he picked up 9 rating points which will allow him to run at Class 2 next time out. Kingsfield (88) too had no response for the winner while having no excuses.

Race 8 (545): Association Fans (41) leaped slightly at the start and then was pinched back, not all that significant what with him being a deep closer. Flying Noble (47) became rank on the backside when Leung realized he wasn’t going to be able to hold the lead and decided to take back, then raced three wide in the turn. Autopay (43) and Lucky Storm (41) also became rank at started to climb badly when they were caught up in the traffic in the turn, while Top Ace (47) was stuck 4 wide without cover. Winner Smiling Charm (65) took advantage of the good draw and was able to race on the rail in turn mid-pack, then was caught up in traffic early on in the stretch but Nash didn’t panic, moved him out to an opening and out finished some good runners. Flame Lily (52) and Fresh Power (49) were closing late but after running wide they were just beaten by a better trip, Shanghai Dragon (54) and Vital Spring (53) both were just outran to the wire. Enduring (60) had to be the hard luck trip, always near the lead but was caught and out finished in the last 50 metres.

Race 9 (546): Diamond Dragon (69) never looked comfortable in any time during the race, kept throwing his head up and never challenged afterwards. Everest (69) set the pace early on and was very disappointing in the stretch, gave it up very easily. Royal Performer (80) raced two wide in the back half of the field, moved outwardly in the lane and outran the chalk Agree (79) to the wire, the favourite had no excuses, sat right off the quitting pace setter, but was just beaten to the wire. The two that were at the rear of the field entering the stretch Willie Way (73) and Magnetism (74) closed well in the middle of the track, as did Fiama (70) who was flying late and did his running closer to the rail. Top weight Red Marvel (78) had no significance to the finish after racing three wide without cover. At the same time the Royal Reformer was making the winning move, Gold Land (69) looked full of run but was stuck behind a wall of three, when room was found he lacked the quick enough turn of foot to get back to the winner.

Race 10 (547): Dukedom (65) leaped at the break costing him 2 lengths to the field. Sun Touch (74) breaking from the far outside post was used up early on to gain the position on the lead, but became very leg weary around the 200 metre mark and was caught with 50 metres to go by the favourite Harmony Hero (82) early on raced in the clear without anybody looking him in the eye, then was two wide in the turn shifted out to the 6 path into the lane and just wore down the tiring front runner. Famous Warrior (73) raced just behind behind the winner but wasn’t fast enough to catch him, he did run even with him in the lane though, something looked to have spooked him just before the wire and was not a smooth gallop out. Home Run (69) raced in the back and was caught up in traffic issues while full of run, after Sanna got him into the clear he finished out very well but was unable to get close enough to the winner to wear him down.


Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 4 (541) # 6 Aerohappiness (59): In his debut race for Size and Moreira on board was lucky enough not draw the toughest Class 4 race out there, he was bet off the board to 3-5 and didn’t disappoint his backers. Broke very professionally in a straight line while settling just off the pace setters in a slowly run first half mile, he then raced 3 wide without cover while full of run, he drifted in a little at the top of the lane but when Moreira gathered him up and shifted his weight he changed leads and his quick turn of foot was on full display. Once he had clear control of the lead he looked to get lazy on Moreira wondering where everybody went, he looked to have plenty left in the tank and with him only picking up 7 rating points, he gets another try at this class level.

Race 7 (544) #5 What Else But You (96): I usually don’t put horses back on a watch list immediately after being put on in the race before last, but after this run I couldn’t resist it. Raced on the rail after drawing the barrier closes to it, moved off it entering the stretch and quickly ran away from the three that were in front of him, was under a hand ride when he galloped under the wire beating a very good Class 2 field, and him coming out of it with a total rating of 98 means he gets this kind of group again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 (538) #11 Dragon Dance (35): Longshot winner was helped out when most of his main competition was running into trouble they couldn’t overcome.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. April 8, 2018 Sixty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 78 Degrees Sunny 0% of Rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180408_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180408_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 10 :3: Coby Boy (3-1): Won his debut two races back paying $196 to win, had no excuse in his last and lacked the kick to get up, now drew the 12 post, playing he gets caught wide and comes up short again.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 6 :2: Green Energy (7-1)
Race 7 :6: Born In China (18-1)
Race 10 :5: Hang’s Decision (16-1)
AWT (Slop):
Race 2 :8: Happy Friendship (7-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
Race 3 :3: Hay Run (5-2)
Race 4 :1: Lean Perfection (2-5)
Race 6 :2: Green Energy (7-1)
Race 7 :1: Mr Stunning (6-5)
Race 7 :3: Amazing Kids (8-1)
Race 7 :6: Born In China (18-1)
Race 8 :6: Fifty Fifty (7-2)
Race 8 :8: Pingwu Spark (9-1)
Race 9 :1: Magic Legend (5-1)
Race 9 :7: Bravo Watchman (2-1)
Race 10 :2: Baba Mama (7-2)

Horses for courses:
Race 4 :1: Lean Perfection (2-5)
Race 7 :1: Mr Stunning (6-5)
Race 7 :3: Amazing Kids (8-1)
Race 8 :2: Beauty Generation (5-1)
Race 8 :6: Fifty Fifty (7-2)
Race 8 :8: Pingwu Spark (9-1)
Race 9 :7: Bravo Watchman (2-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 7 :1: Mr Stunning (6-5)
Race 7 :3: Amazing Kids (8-1)
Race 8 :2: Beauty Generation (5-1)
Race 9 :3: Adventurer (13-1)
Race 9 :7: Bravo Watchman (2-1)

Class specialists:
Race 7 :1: Mr Stunning (6-5)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 9 :9: Gunnison (5-1): In his second race in Hong Kong after unimpressive 7th on the dirt course, Size picked up the services of Moreira for the out. He was bumped slightly soon after the break, then raced mid-pack on the biased rail, it took him a while to get going in the stretch while being in heavy traffic with no place to fully extend himself. Moreira gave him one love tap on his hip early in the stretch but other than that he never even showed him the stick, he was only beaten by a length and a quarter.
Past watch list runner:
Race 8 :4: Pakistan Star (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 3 :1: Bullish Glory (5-1)
Race 9 :9: Gunnison (5-1)
Race 10 :7: Chung Wah Spirit (10-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :2: Wishful Thinker (6-1)
Race 7 :7: Dundonnell (37-1)
Race 8 :3: Helena Paragon (10-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. April 11, 2018 Sixty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 Degrees Clear 20% Rain Wind: SSE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180411_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180411_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :2: Great Joy (2-1): Prefers to run second what with 5 seconds out of 19 lifetime races with only 1 win, was all out and still couldn’t beat the longshot Multigogo in his last.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 426 (Winners: 1st, 5th, 7th & 10th)
Race 6 :9: Majestic Endeavour (9-1)

Race 446 (Winners: 6th & 10th, second: 7th)
Race 6 :7: Let’s Take It Easy (5-1)

Race 508 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 9th)
Race 5 :3: Big Fortune (15-1)
Race 8 :4: Lucky Hero (3-1)
Race 8 :10: Iron Boy (14-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: House Of Luck (18-1)
Race 3 :2: Bond Elegance (12-1)
Race 5 :9: Smart Declaration (6-1)
Race 8 :9: Back In Black (12-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos today:
Race 1 :7: Oriental Elite (4-1)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 7 :6: Winning Faith (7-5)

Distance specialists running today:
Race 5 :1: Moment Of Power (3-1)
Race 7 :1: Litterateur (6-1)
Race 7 :3: Imperial Gallantry (9-1)
Race 7 :6: Winning Faith (7-5)
Race 8 :1: Wonderful Journey (8-1)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :6: King Bountiful (11-1)
Race 7 :2: Pikachu (12-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :4: See Me Now (5-2)
Race 7 :2: Pikachu (12-1)
Race 8 :4: Lucky Hero (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :6: King Bountiful (11-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: April 8, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 455, 474, 508 & 552

Notes for the day:
Race 1 (548): Massive Move (48) was at least 3 lengths slow at the start. The first time starter Superich (62) was bet down as the favourite, sat behind a three horse duel and when Moreira pushed the button he quickly accelerated away from the field, has the look of a real nice runner. Team Spirit (53) another first time runner was also played in the windows, but was caught in the early duel and had nothing left for the advancing winner. Magic Success 44() had no response either at the 350 mark for the winner and threw in the towel pretty easily.

Race 2 (549): Happy Friendship (26) was a little slow out of the gate, and unfortunately broke down nearing the wire, Sanna’s ride City Winner (30) couldn’t avoid him and fell unseating the Italian rider. Winner Glenealy Prize (39) at the top of the backside was asked by Moreira to join in and within 300 metres had gone from the back to the lead and just held on to the wire after the incident in the stretch. Hall Of Fame (28), Empire Of Mongolia (20) and Best Jade Triumph (18) were extremely wide thru out their trips.

Race 3 (550): Longshot winner Ho Ho Feel (66) saved ground in the turn and after some traffic issues in the stretch ran away from this ordinary field for an impressive run. Bullish Glory (58) closed in the stretch after breaking a couple lengths slow. Let Us Win (58) had no excuse not to run a better race, sat right behind a two horse duel with no one looking him in the eye. Hay Run (59) ran a descent third after doing his usual slow breaking from the gate.

Race 4 (551): Longshot Borntoachieve (65) leaped out of the gate losing a couple lengths to the field and was never heard from again. Solar Patch (75) in his first run in Hong Kong for John Moore raced three wide in the turn and outran Wishful Thinker (81) who had all kinds of trouble finding running room when it counted. Lean Perfection (80) saved ground and just wasn’t fast enough to get up. Triumphant Jewel (63) was four wide without cover, Top Beautiful (67) looked to be in a striking position early in the lane but either wouldn’t split runners or the hole was moving faster than he was. Intrepic (63) put in a very nice effort after only losing by a ½ length in his first race since late January.

Race 5 (552): These 1,650 metre races on the dirt should be limited to ten entries, it’s too short of a run to the first turn for anybody breaking in the outer post. Open House (54), Enreaching (51) and Elusive Star (49) were doomed at the draw and raced extremely wide in both turns, after travelling wide in the first turn Wong on Pearl Warm Warm (38) tried the same move Moreira tried in the second but his steed wasn’t able to get him home. Co-top weight winner Crown Avenue (63) raced in the rear until the second turn, Purton moved him to the outside and out finished Go Go Win (58) and Speedy Wally (46) (the later galloped out past the winner soon after the wire full of run) who both had easier trips to the wire.

Race 6 (553): Faithful Trinity (62) shied out when he got into a tight spot soon after the break, later in the stretch looked like he may want to get up but couldn’t find running room until the race was decided, take a good look at him next time out. The winner Jolly Gene (85) saved ground sitting just a little off the pace sitter, was all dressed up with nowhere to go, then when room became available he out finished Tai Smart (62) who was light weight and probably was just a little too far back early on to make up the difference. Dynamic Eagle (69) and Green Energy (78) both had no excuses, they had the jump first on the winner while he was being trapped and still couldn’t hold on. Rule Thee (76) lacked the needed kick late after racing very rank on the backside.

Race 7 (554): GII The Sprint Cup: Born In China (111) and Not’listin’tome (114) both looked uncomfortable while racing in the turns, our winner Beat The Clock (125) raced in the rear moved to the 3 path in the turn and outran everyone to the wire. Rawiller on Mr Stunning (129) looked to have been a little over confident in his ride at the top of the stretch and was out finished when he realised he was in trouble. Not one of Schofield’s best rides to date either, looked to be in contention but was hesitant in going into a hole, Winner’s Way (115) with Purton on the other hand put in the effort to get into it and it almost was a winning move, he just didn’t have the needed horsepower to get up.

Race 8 (555): GII The Chairman’s Cup: Pakistan Star (123) looked like he was going to balk again but after some serious urging on the backstretch by Moreira he did continue to run and closed to finish only a little more than a length off the winner, he’s got me real confused. Purton on Time Warp (127) went a little faster in the early part than he probably wanted, what with Fifty Fifty (123) breathing on him for the first 600 metres. The longshot winner Beauty Only (123) raced near the back of the pack then moved to the outside and out finished them all, very frustrating watching a horse I had on a watch list earlier in the meet get up paying $74 to win! Western Express (122) might have been the winner if not he ran into a tight spot at the 200 metre mark when Helene Paragon (123) began to tire and drifted outwardly causing Rawiller too check up on him slightly.

Race 9 (556): Five runners all tried for the lead early on and eventually it did them all in, and while this was going on sitting in the cat bird seat was Bravo Watchman (90) with Moreira waiting for them to collapse but unfortunately for him he was outrun to the wire by longshot Marvel Tribe (96) who closed in the middle of the track. Gunnison (85), My Little Friend (79) and Key Witness (86) also closed after the duel late but were never in a shape to catch the winner.

Race 10 (557): Hang’s Decision (75) leaped out of the gate conceding a couple lengths to the field. The longshot (another one) winner Roundabout (74) was rank on the backside while racing near the rear of the field while two eventual quitters were setting very slow early fractions, he moved to the outside in the stretch and under a hard ride by Schofield was able to get by Yeung and Coby Boy (81) under the shadow of the wire. Starship (62) was caught up in the traffic mid-stretch and was gaining late when he had room to run, as was Chung Wah Spirit (74) after going wide in the turn.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 1 (548) #8 Team Spirit (53): In his debut race was bet down as the second betting choice at 2-1, broke well and dueled in between runners while the eventual winner favourite Superich (62) raced right behind them in the garden spot. Finally at the 300 metre mark he was engaged by the winner and didn’t have a response for him, but did handle the rest of the field with ease.

Race 4 (551) #2 Wishful Thinker (81): Went off as the second betting choice at 2-1 and was a length slow while breaking on the rail, he then raced a little closer than his usual running position. Pass the midway point down the backside he began to climb while looking for clear running room, when he entered the stretch he was full of energy, but was totally hemmed in with no place to go. He commenced to raise his head while trying to find a gap, when room became available he was gaining on the winner at the wire but was just was a little short. Unfortunately he picked up 2 rating points for a total of 81 points, so unless Gibson can find a 85 point Class 3 race he’ll be a light weight in Class 2 next out.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. April 15, 2018 Sixty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees Showers 90% Rain Wind: N 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12.30am ET, 9.30pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180415_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180415_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 474 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 1st)
Race 7 :3: Mr Lumieres (4-5)

Race 491 (Winners: 2nd, 4th, 5th & 8th)
Race 11 :2: Super Wise (8-5)

Race 508 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 9th)
Race 3 :6: Flash Famous (20-1)
Race 5 :2: Photon Willie (16-1)
Race 11 :9: All Best Friends (25-1)
Race 11 :11: Victory Machine (13-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :1: Hang’s Decision (14-1)
Race 5 :3: A Beautiful (10-1)
Race 5 :5: Compassion Star (11-1)
Race 6 :12: The Full Bloom (8-1)
Race 11 :10: Right Call (11-1)

AWT (Slop):
Race 2 :4: Fantastic Fabio (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
None

Horses for courses running today:
Race 10 :6: Team Fortune (10-1)
Race 10 :10: Perpetual Treasure (28-1)
Race 10 :11: Pick Number One (even)

Distance specialists running today:
None

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 5 :11: Sunny Power (4-1): Was unfortunate in drawing Raging Storm (63) and him getting pretty much a perfect trip, while Sunny Power was bumped repeatedly at the start forcing him to the rear of the field. He finished off well after racing on the rail and having to navigate thru some tiring runners in front of him and quickly galloped out past the winner after the wire.

Past watch list runners:
Race 11 :2: Super Wise (8-5)

Key Plays:
Race 3 :2: Unicorn Jewellery (3-1)
Race 5 :11: Sunny Power (4-1)
Race 6 :1: Red Elysees (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :6: Happy Sound (12-1)
Race 3 :1: Hang’s Decision (14-1)
Race 5 :2: Photon Willie (16-1)
Race 7 :2: Money Boy (30-1)
Race 10 :1: California Whip (22-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. April 18, 2018 Sixty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% Rain Wind: E 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180418_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180418_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 6 :6: Fast Most Furious (9-5): Ran into some traffic issues in his last and still almost got up for the win, but playing against the trainer alone here, as long as he’s hovering at 2% I will play against every short priced runner he sends out.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 419 (Winners: 2nd & 8th, second: 6th)
Race 2 :12: Island Flyer (19-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :2: Peace N Prosperity (10-1)
Race 8 :5: King Of Mongolia (29-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 8 :6: Roman Impero (7-2)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 6 :4: Prince Harmony (8-1)
Race 6 :5: Best Step (10-1)
Race 8 :8: Har Har Heart (2-1)

Distance specialists running today:
Race 3 :5: King Bountiful (2-1)
Race 8 :8: Har Har Heart (2-1)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :5: Best Step (10-1): Had been away since last October when he was put on the shelf with a lame left hind leg. Casper was able to secure Purton for the ride so obviously the problem with the hind leg has been solved, at the start he took a nice leap costing him at least a couple lengths to the field but more importantly it took him right out of his comfort zone of running at the front of the pack. Then when he straightened up coming out of the short turn he had to check up and became rank and refused to get into a comfortable gate until half-way in the turn. There was no urging by Zach in lane and galloped out past the wire.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 4 :3: All My Gain (3-1)
Race 6 :5: Best Step (10-1)
Race 7 :3: Charity Glory (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 :1: Happy Rocky (18-1)
Race 5 :3: Peace Combination (11-1)
Race 8 :7: High Volatility (10-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. April 21, 2018 Sixty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 79 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% Rain Wind: ESE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180421_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180421_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 491 (Winners: 2nd, 4th, 5th & 8th)
Race 9 :4: Lucky Dollar (12-1)

Race 503 (Winners: 3rd, 5th & 10th, second: 2nd)
Race 6 :9: Yee Cheong Pegasus (7-1)

Race 508 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 9th)
Race 4 :1: Sam’s Love (6-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Ambitious Speedy (8-1)
Race 4 :11: Regency Darling (29-1)
Race 10 :2: Apollo’s Choice (18-1)

AWT (Slop):
Race 2 :6: Namjong Invincible (13-1)
Race 5 :4: Willie Way (5-2)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 1 :10: Just Not Listening (4-1)
Race 2 :1: Let Us Win (3-1)
Race 5 :4: Willie Way (5-2)
Race 8 :3: Midnight Rattler (5-1)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 9 :5: Ugly Warrior (4-5)

Distance specialists running today:
Race 9 :5: Ugly Warrior (4-5)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 4 :2: Aerohappiness (3-5): In his debut race for Size and Moreira on board was lucky enough not draw the toughest Class 4 race out there, he was bet off the board to 3-5 and didn’t disappoint his backers. Broke very professionally in a straight line while settling just off the pace setters in a slowly run first half mile, he then raced 3 wide without cover while full of run, he drifted in a little at the top of the lane but when Moreira gathered him up and shifted his weight he changed leads and his quick turn of foot was on full display. Once he had clear control of the lead he looked to get lazy on Moreira wondering where everybody went, he looked to have plenty left in the tank and with him only picking up 7 rating points, he gets another try at this class level.

Race 6 :3: Empire Star (7-1) Had closed to finish second in his race before this one at 21-1 against Raging Storm, unfortunately he caught a day when the track was anything but favourable to closers. At the break Smiling Pride came in and bumped him extremely hard knocking him sideways. Rawiller gave a perfect ride saving as much ground as possible in the turn, found space in the stretch and continued to close on the winner only to run out of room at the wire, he quickly galloped out past the winner after the finish line.

Race 10 :13: Turin Redstar (25-1) Broke well and was in good position but had to be steadied entering the turn when Raging Storm came over onto him, all the while the top weight winner Regency Bo Bo (87) was taking advantage of the track bias. Was interfered with at the 175 metre mark when Clipperton on Shamport moved outward trying to find running room, he never was going to challenge for the win even with the trouble.

Past watch list runners running today:
Race 6 :4: Shanghai Dragon (17-1)
Race 10 :6: Gunnison (4-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 :2: Aerohappiness (3-5)
Race 6 :3: Empire Star (7-1)
Race 7 :10: Handsome Bo Bo (even)
Race 10 :13: Turin Redstar (25-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :9: Unique Joyous (20-1)
Race 4 :5: Ocean Elite (31-1)
Race 6 :4: Shanhai Dragon (17-1)
Race 8 :10: C P Power (11-1)
Race 9 :3: Dragon Master (18-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. April 25, 2018 Sixty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180425_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180425_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 :5: Gold Velvet (7-2): Has been away since December and only has one finish in the money in his 11 lifetime races.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 401 (Winners: 4th & 10th, second: 3rd)
Race 1 :7: The Legend (7-1)

Race 419 (Winners: 2nd & 8th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :6: Eastern Prowess (17-1)

Race 502 (Winners: 3rd, 4th, 5th & 7th)
Race 2 :5: Top Score (8-1)

Race 543 (Winners: 5th, 10th &13th)
Race 7 :9: Enjoy Life (21-1)
Race 7 :11: Dashing Dart (20-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Good Days (32-1)
Race 4 :8: Sparkling Sword (12-1)
Race 5 :3: Happy Surveys (19-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos:
None

Horses for courses:
Race 3 :7: Har Har Heart (4-1)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
None


Key Plays:
Race 3 :7: Har Har Heart (4-1)
Race 4 :2: Merrygowin (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 :6: People’s Champion (11-1)
Race 7 :9: Enjoy Life (21-1)
Race 8 :7: Master Albert (12-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

Hi there Woody! I see you’re still offering some nice write up’s on the HK racing. It looks like a lot of work to me, but I’m sure you enjoy their racing program as much as I do.
I thought I would stop by and offer my ideas on another nice card.
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with 8 decent races on the Turf: 3-Class3, 4-Class4, and 1-Class5 (Not really top classes, but these type of races usually offer some great value)

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ll won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections are ALL be based on a static tote analysis. My Final selections and plays will all be based the Live tote analysis.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…..3-5-9 W/ 1-4 ….….7:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#2 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……... 4-6-10 W/ 5-8 …..…7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#3 - 2200M C5 (11F)T…....5-7-10 W/ 6-1 .......8:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#4 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…..2-8-5 W/ 1-10 …....8:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)T.………1-10-9 W/ 5-2 …....9:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#6 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……....1-8-5 W/ 4-2 …...…9:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#7 – 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….1-10-7 W/ 5-12 .....10:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……..…2-5-11 W/ 1-8 …….10:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. April 29, 2018 Sixty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% Rain Wind: ESE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180429_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180429_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 :5: Solar Pitch (5-2): Was able to just get by Wishful Thinker who had all kinds of trouble, and was all out at the wire paying $36 to win.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 258 (Winners: 2nd & 5th, second: 1st)
Race 7 :4: Thewizardofoz (18-1)

Race 335 (Winners: 1st, 2nd & 12th)
Race 2 :5: Go Beauty Go (5-1)

Race 491 (Winners: 2nd, 4th, 5th & 8th)
Race 2 :7: Multi Facets (7-1)

Race 543 (Winners: 5th, 10th & 13th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :10: Lucky Win Win (27-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :10: Right Call (15-1)
Race 4 :5: Romantic Touch (14-1)
Race 6 :8: Pingwu Spark (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Ivictory (5-2)
Race 8 :1: Time Warp (5-2)
Race 8 :5: Ping Hai Star (even)
Race 8 :7: Gold Mount (20-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 2 :5: Go Beauty Go (5-1)
Race 3 :4: Unicorn Jewellery (9-1)
Race 6 :3: Seasons Bloom (8-5)
Race 6 :4: Beauty Only (13-1)
Race 6 :6: Blizzard (41-1)
Race 6 :8: Pingwu Spark (10-1)
Race 7 :2: Beat The Clock (3-2)
Race 7 :3: Lucky Bubbles (9-1)
Race 8 :5: Ping Hai Star (even)
Race 9 :1: Hot King Prawn (even)
Race 10 :9: Rise High (4-1)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 3 :4: Unicorn Jewellery (9-1)
Race 6 :1: Beauty Generation (3-2)
Race 6 :3: Seasons Bloom (8-5)
Race 6 :8: Pingwu Spark (10-1)
Race 7 :1: Mr Stunning (3-1)
Race 7 :2: Beat The Clock (3-2)
Race 7 :3: Lucky Bubbles (9-1)
Race 7 :5: Amazing Kids (33-1)
Race 7 :9: Ivictory (5-2)
Race 8 :5: Ping Hai Star (even)
Race 9 :1: Hot King Prawn (even)


Distance specialists running today:
Race 3 :4: Unicorn Jewellery (9-1)
Race 4 :1: Winner’s Way (5-1)
Race 4 :4: Jolly Banner (5-1)
Race 6 :3: Seasons Bloom (8-5)
Race 7 :3: Lucky Bubbles (9-1)
Race 7 :5: Amazing Kids (33-1)
Race 7 :9: Ivictory (5-2)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 4 :10: What Else But You (even): I usually don’t put horses back on a watch list immediately after being put on in the race before last, but after this run I couldn’t resist it. Raced on the rail after drawing the barrier closes to it, moved off it entering the stretch and quickly ran away from the three that were in front of him, was under a hand ride when he galloped under the wire beating a very good Class 2 field, and him coming out of it with a total rating of 98 means he gets this kind of group again.

Race 5 :9: Brave Legend (4-1): Drew the outside post with the short run to the turn going 1200 at Happy Valley, raced in the back third on the backside while unable to find his way to the rail and was caught three wide in the turn. He then moved to the five path entering the stretch, was gaining on the leaders late but was beaten by better trips, he galloped out past the leaders soon after the wire.

Race 5 :13: Sparkling Dragon (9-1): After winning his first two races he was a little flat against Win Beauty Win (71) in the next, he was then placed on the shelf for 3 months. After the break he was bet down as the 2-1 favourite in his first try at the downtown course, unfortunately he wasn’t able to get the lead where he’s most comfortable. Raced a couple lengths off the leader 2 wide in the turn, moved to the four path for the run home but as soon as he grabbed the lead he started to tippy toe a little and was out run to the wire by Infinity Endeavour (82) who was on his game that night. Now that he has a race under him, he should improve off that effort.

Race 9 :14: Wishful Thinker (8-1): Went off as the second betting choice at 2-1 and was a length slow while breaking on the rail, he then raced a little closer than his usual running position. Pass the midway point down the backside he began to climb while looking for clear running room, when he entered the stretch he was full of energy, but was totally hemmed in with no place to go. He commenced to raise his head while trying to find a gap, when room became available he was gaining on the winner at the wire but was just was a little short. Unfortunately he picked up 2 rating points for a total of 81 points, so unless Gibson can find a 85 point Class 3 race he’ll be a light weight in Class 2 next out.

Past watch list runners running today:
None

Key Plays:
Race 5 :9: Brave Legend (4-1)
Race 6 :3: Seasons Bloom (8-5)
Race 10 :5: Doctor Geoff (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 3 :1: Rule Thee (20-1)
Race 4 :3: Dundonnell (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Hi there Woody! I see you’re still offering some nice write up’s on the HK racing. I thought I would stop by and offer my ideas on another great card.
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 10 big High Class races on the Turf: (from top to bottom) -
(3)-Graded Stakes (1)-Class1, (2)-Class2, (3)-Class3, & (1)-Class4

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ll won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections are ALL be based on a static tote analysis. My Final selections and plays will all be based the Live tote analysis.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1800M C4 (9F)T…..3-2-4 W/ 6-1-5 …......….12:45 AM EST

R#2 - 1400M C3 (7F)T….. 5-12-9 W/ 2-13-4 …..…1:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#3 - 1600M C3 (8F)T…..5-3-8 W/ 12-13-10 .......1:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#4 - 1400M C1 (7F)T…..4-1-3 W/ 9-6-10 …........2:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#5 - 1200M C3 (6F)T.……5-6-9 W/ 1-7-2 ….........2:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#6 - 1600M GS (8F)T……....1-3-4 W/ 5-6 …......…3:20 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#7 – 1200M GS (6F)T……....1-2-6 W/ 7-9 ..........4:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 2000M GS (10F)T…..…1-2-3 W/ 5-7 …….....…4:40 AM EST

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.….….1-6-2 W/ 9-4-10 ….….5:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T.......5-1-2 W/ 6-9-13 …….5:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck if you’re playing! [/QUOTE]

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. May 2, 2018 Sixty-eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 78 Degrees Thunderstorms Wind: WSW 5mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15pm PT. Rail: Course “AWT”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180502_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180502_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :4: Furious Pegasus (4-1): Has been away since January and unfortunately drew the 14 post with a short run to the first turn and has a running style that has not favouring this track of late.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for a sloppy track:
Race 1 :4: Fantastic Fabio (2-1)
Race 3 :6: Goldie Flanker (5-2)
Race 5 :8: Golden Effort (9-1)
Race 6 :6: Namjong Invincible (7-1)
Race 8 :7: Happy Meteor (8-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 4 :5: Beauty Prince (3-1)
Race 4 :7: Divine Boy (11-1)
Race 7 :8: Gonna Run (10-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 6 :3: Remarkable (9-5)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
None

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 7 :2: Turin Redstar (6-1)
Race 8 :1: Best Step (28-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 :3: Remarkable (9-5)
Race 7 :5: Red Marvel (10-1)
Race 8 :4: Elite Boy (4-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :3: Ever Strong (9-1)
Race 3 :9: Massive Move (11-1)
Race 5 :3: Bond Elegance (9-1)
Race 8 :1: Best Step (28-1)

[TucsonGreyhound]

I hit up Happy Valley last week. It was one of the most amazing racing experiences of my life!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. May 6, 2018 Sixty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 85 Degrees Thunderstorms 50% Rain Wind: SSW 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12.30am ET, 9.30pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180506_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180506_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races running today(races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 503 (Winners: 3rd, 5th & 10th, second: 2nd & 7th)
Race 3 :2: Dragon Warrior (12-1)
Race 5 :2: Have Fun Together (5-2)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :4: Styling City (3-5)
Race 8 :1: My Little Friend (12-1)
Race 9 :7: Fiama (16-1)
Race 9 :10: King Of Mongolia (51-1)
Race 11 :8: Hang’s Decision (10-1(

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 3 :1: Yourthewonforme (4-1)
Race 8 :3: Montreal (6-1)
Race 9 :2: Circuit Glory (7-2)


Horses for courses running today:
Race 11 :3: Win Beauty Win (2-1)

Distance specialists running today:
None

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 10 :5: Eagle (10-1): First time starter in Hong Kong after winning 2 of 4 in Australia, drew the 12 post with the short run to the turn in a 1,200 metre Class 3 event. Threw his head at the start and was immediately taken to the rear in an effort to save as much ground as possible in the turn, raced two wide then drifted out to the five path entering the stretch, was making a move mid-stretch but was blocked by Orionids when he became to drift out when he started tiring. Rispoli then moved inward to avoid that and then had to check up when So Fast came into his path, galloped out well afterwards without being pushed.

Race 11 :6: Hezthewonforus (2-1): First time starter in Hong Kong for Size after winning his only out in New Zealand, picked up the services of Moreira for the effort and was heavily bet at the windows going off as the even money favourite. Broke well and was placed mid-pack but 200 metres from the start became rank which continued in the turn while racing two wide, was slightly covered up at the top of the stretch and was outrun late in the stretch by the second betting choice Win Beauty Win (78), he galloped out well. Look for an equipment change to solve the climbing issue.

Past watch list runners running today:
None

Key Plays:
Race 4 :1: Eagle Way (3-1)
Race 9 :4: Good Omen (4-1)
Race 10 :5: Eagle
Race 11 :6: Hezthewonforus (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 :6: Unique Joyful (11-1)
Race 6 :8: Hong Kong’s Folks (14-1)
Race 7 :3: Nice Kick (10-1)
Race 11 :8: Hang’s Decision (10-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. May 9, 2018 Seventieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees Scattered Thunderstorms 40% Rain Wind: E 15 to 25mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180509_starter_all.pdf (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180509_starter_all.pdf)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html (http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/8.html) SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk (http://www.drf.com/hk)
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard (http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard)

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221 (http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221)

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :2: Kiram (3-1): On speed figures and the pace set up, it looks like he fits in the race, but he shows no interest in winning. After 38 races he only has ONE win, but he does like to finish in the money though, also Callan and Ferraris aren’t setting any records together, 1 win out of 54 tries this year.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 543 (Winners: 5th, 10th & 13th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :4: Telecom Man (6-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :8: Mr Picasso (16-1)
Race 8 :7: Back In Black (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 :1: Formula Galore (5-2)
Race 3 :11: Smart Baby (5-2)
Race 6 :2: Friends Of Ka Ying (2-1)
Race 7 :9: The Judge (2-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 :8: Har Har Heart (4-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 6 :6: Don’t Miss (3-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
None

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 2 :7: Seventy Seventy (3-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 :8: Beaut Beaut (7-1)
Race 5 :4: Encore Boy (5-2)
Race 6 :2: Friends Of Ka Ying (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :3: Peace On Earth (9-1)
Race 3 :1: Go Go Win (13-1)
Race 8 :7: Back In Black (10-1)

[Nitro]

HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN 5/20/18
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections on another competitive card. It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 10 races on the Turf:

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong+Kong+Weather&rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS714US721&oq=Hong+Kong+Weather&aqs=chrome..69i57.19739j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2200M C4 (11F)T…..1-2-3 W/ 7-9 ….….1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2200M C4 (11F)T…..1-2-3 W/ 7-9 ….….1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 7-1-6-2 QUIN - $16.30
#6 Got some late action

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T….. 1-13-4 W/ 11-5-6 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T….. 1-13-4 W/ 11-5-6 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 5-8-9-11
#5 Got hit hard late becoming a last minute favorite

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1400M C3 (7F)T…..2-3-4 W/ 6-7 .......2:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1400M C3 (7F)T…..2-3-4 W/ 6-7 .......2:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 2-7-4-6 QUIN - $31.10 & TRI - $308.20

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…..1-8-2 W/ 3-6-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…..1-8-2 W/ 3-6-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 4-8-5-6 QUIN - $96.40
#8 Got solid late action & #2 was dropped w/no action moving #4 into play

[Hanger]

R#4 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…..1-8-2 W/ 3-6-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

big price coming through there, really thought the 8 had it. Enjoying watching this product this evening.

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1000M C3 (5F)T.……3-8-1 W/ 11-6 …....3:00 AM EST

[Nitro]

big price coming through there, really thought the 8 had it. Enjoying watching this product this evening.

I watch all of the racing in HK. I really enjoy too!

[Hanger]

R#5 - 1000M C3 (5F)T.……3-8-1 W/ 11-6 …....3:00 AM EST

Looks like :1::3::8: taking all the money on the tote this race, see what the last 5 minutes brings.

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1000M C3 (5F)T.……3-8-1 W/ 11-6 …....3:00 AM EST

Results - 3-8-1-9 QUIN - $9.10 & TRI - $32.00 Cold
Top 3 Got solid action throughout

[fellowmen]

where's Woodbine?

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……....6-4-5 W/ 14-8-12 ……3:35 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)

[fellowmen]

i coundnt figureo out how to make your bet being a quinella so i bet your numbers in a tri with 123 in the third slot