Stable Money-The pool.....

[JustRalph]

Just Wondering about these two races at Mountaineer tonight:
I am wondering which one was a real longshot and whether or not the Trifecta pool was full of stable money in the first race below;

Mountaineer Park - May 27th, 2002 - Race 3

6 Flashing Lil 65.40 26.80 10.40
5 Elaine's Booboo 15.00 5.40
2 Knight Dancer 3.20
Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff Pool Carryover
$2 Trifecta 6-5-2 1,902.60 39,323

Now in the race right after: Check out the difference in payout and how many people you think had it........I would welcome any comments. I am not real up to date on the way the pool works, but It looks to me like the second race had possibly one $2 ticket or two $1 dollar tickets as opposed to approx 12-15 people having the first one. Am I right about this one?


Mountaineer Park - May 27th, 2002 - Race 4

11 Magical Madness 76.80 40.60 19.60
2 Irish Silence 64.40 18.60
10 Talkmeister 4.00

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff Pool Carryover
$2 Trifecta 11-2-10 25,123.40 33,498

[Sekrah]

Nah, I don't think there is anything too suspicious behind this.. The key to look at is the post-time favorite.

A 31-1, 11-1, and 7-5 should pay alot less than 37-1, 66-1, 3-1.. You'll find that there are a suprising number of people who usually include atleast one longshot (20-1 or higher) in there trifectas.. but those who throw two in their trifectas are very rare. Also, the 7-5 was in everyone's trifecta. In the second race, there were 4 horses that went off at a price 4-1 or less. The money needed to be spread around. And as I said, very few people would ever throw a 37-1 and a 66-1 together in a triple.


It may be a little small than one might expect.. I would have guessed in the $2500 range..

I regularly hit big tri's.. and I very often are suprised, in one way or another.. A $3679 in the 2nd at Delaware two Saturday's ago.. With a 12-1, 34-1, and 5-1.. I thought it would be a little bigger, and I was stunned to find out that someone else in the OTW had the same exact trifecta, which surely brought down the price a lil bit. So it's certaintly possible and plausible that just because there's a low trifecta, it doesn't mean there was shady insider betting going on.

Also cashed the Met Mile's $798 tri yesterday with Swept Overboard (11-1) on top of two 4-1's. Suprised it paid that much.. But if Left Bank finishes 3rd.. It would be a good bet that the $798 shrinks to $300-$350 area IMO.

A 11-1, 4-1, 4-1, changed to a 11-1, 4-1, 2-1, cut by more than 50%? Yep..


It all depends on the public, and how the horse final position looks to the public.. A 5-1 horse that is constantly finishing 2nd and 3rd in his last 5 or 6 races, is more likely to be thrown in the tail-end of a trifecta than a 5-1 who finishes inconsistantly 7th, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 2nd.

[rrbauer]

JR:

I ran these two scenarios through my Tri valuation algorithm that takes into account both ML and Current odds.
This one (Race 3) should have paid about $1300 for a $2 ticket.
$2 Trifecta 6-5-2 1,902.60 39,323

The second one (Race 4) should have paid about $4800 for a $2 ticket.
$2 Trifecta 11-2-10 25,123.40 33,498

In both cases the fav ran 3rd. The big difference in the 4th race was the bomb that ran 2nd at 65-1. It looks like there were two $1 tickets on that one if the Tri takeout is 25%.

From my perspective both Tri's paid more than "fair" value.

[superfecta]

Take a look at the june issue of ATM.In the angle of the month the author is describing which horse is a better bet.The horse who is the favorite is listed against a horse that is 4/1.Of course the 4/1 is a better bet based on form,and wins.The shocker is the exacta pays 75 bucks,the tri pays $23,840.
The winner is the 3rd fav,the place horse is the fourth fav(at 5.70/1)and the betting fav is third.There are only 7 horses in the field.Looks like somebody went to sleep on this one.Should pay more like 300 dollars for a $2 ticket,since the field was so small.I guess everyone thought it was a two horse race.....