Pletcher ML Favs killing them @BEL!!!

[TheOracle]

Pletcher has 10 wins in 17 attempts so far to start the season at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchovrallbel.jpg

However, when you peel back a layer and look at his Morning Line Favorites when they are less than 3-1 his record is astonishing

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchermlfavsbel.jpg

His horses have won 7 of their last 8 races when they have a Morning Line that is less than 3-1 including 6 straight wins

His only blemish, so far, came in the 1st race on April 29th where he had one that finished off the board!!!

His win prices have now started to plummet and with his winning the Derby it will be difficult to get a price above $4 on any of his horses that start out with a Morning Line less than 3-1.

From what I have seen, these trends usually peak when they are close to 10 so I am expecting his horses to come back down to earth quickly!!!

For those of you who are Pletcher fans you are getting a 142% return on your money per $2 win wager, so far, on Pletcher but now that he's won the Derby those returns will be quite small!!!

Let's see if this phenomenon can continue for another week!!!

[TheOracle]

Pletcher's Maidens have accounted for 7 of his 10 wins so far at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchmdnsbel.jpg


He has this one listed tomorrow in the 6th at Belmont but it will be bet to death now that he's won the Derby

6th race
#1 Privy Council


Let's see if #1 Privy Council can make it 4 Maiden wins in a row for him tomorrow!!!

[TheOracle]

Pletcher's Maidens have accounted for 7 of his 10 wins so far at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchmdnsbel.jpg


He has this one listed tomorrow in the 6th at Belmont but it will be bet to death now that he's won the Derby

6th race
#1 Privy Council


Let's see if #1 Privy Council can make it 4 Maiden wins in a row for him tomorrow!!!

We got out butts handed to us with Pletcher's Maidens

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletchermdnsovrallbel.jpg


They have gone 0 for their last 5 attempts and the profits are now down to 33%

Maybe Pletcher can right the ship with his upcoming Maidens at Belmont!!!

[davew]

They have gone 0 for their last 5 attempts



this is usually when I start betting when I used to be following 'random trends', so I stopped

[TheOracle]

They have gone 0 for their last 5 attempts



this is usually when I start betting when I used to be following 'random trends', so I stopped

Hey Dave

Sometimes Pletcher's Maidens will show profits very early in the season

For example, from May 2nd, 2015 up to May 15th 2016 at Belmont whenever his Maidens were listed at less than 3-1 in the Morning Line it just seemed like they were automatic 16 out 26 wins within that time frame.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletcherbelfavml.jpg


However, from May 18th 2016 up until the rest of the season that year his Maidens listed at less than 3-1 in the Morning Line did absolutely nothing for the remainder of the season

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletcherbelmlfav.jpg


I had it on my to do list to check for the beginning of this year at Belmont to see if his Maidens could get hot again and they did for a little while but they have since faded

[castaway01]

Wouldn't your time be much better spent looking for trainers that do this with horses at 8-1ML rather than odds-on favorites? All of these posts are just "heavy favorites from top barns win a lot". Why do you find this so remarkable?

[PaceAdvantage]

I decided to try to see if I could take advantage of these instances as they occurred and in doing so I found that I have cashed more tickets now than I previously ever have in the past and at times I actually make a profit So still no long term profit then? Say, over a few hundred races or so?

Do you post picks? Do you document them? Just curious...

[TheOracle]

So still no long term profit then? Say, over a few hundred races or so?

Do you post picks? Do you document them? Just curious...

Hey Pace

Yes I do post picks that I believe have an advantage on that particular day

In my last series of post for a short period of time I made a profit following the Morning Line 2/1's at Belmont they went 8 for 15 at one point on the Dirt

The trend has since eroded into nothing but for a short while I made a profit

Yes you are correct, in the long term I have not profited some of that are my picks and some are because I am not disciplined to stick with my own rules

However, I started doing things like this because handicapping wasn't working for me.

[TheOracle]

Wouldn't your time be much better spent looking for trainers that do this with horses at 8-1ML rather than odds-on favorites? All of these posts are just "heavy favorites from top barns win a lot". Why do you find this so remarkable?

Heavy favorites from top barns don't always "win a lot" as you put it there are times when they go cold just like any other streak

So if a top barn is "winning a lot" it might be advantageous to know how much of a return that barn is getting per monetary wager so if I see a barn that is doing well as was the case with Pletcher in the beginning of the Belmont season I track it and display the return on investment

The decision then becomes whether or not to invest in a hot barn or stay away because the streak is not likely to last very long

Sometimes it's helpful to physically see what's true rather than to assume what's true

[TheOracle]

We got out butts handed to us with Pletcher's Maidens

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletchermdnsovrallbel.jpg


They have gone 0 for their last 5 attempts and the profits are now down to 33%

Maybe Pletcher can right the ship with his upcoming Maidens at Belmont!!!

Pletcher has this Maiden in the 2nd race today at Belmont

2nd race
#4 Tempestad

Let's see if he can get the win with this one today at Belmont as his Maidens have gone ice cold!!!

[TheOracle]

Pletcher has this Maiden in the 2nd race today at Belmont

2nd race
#4 Tempestad

Let's see if he can get the win with this one today at Belmont as his Maidens have gone ice cold!!!


Well #4 Tempestad came through today with a win for Pletcher paying $9.80 across the board!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletchermdnsbeldrt.jpg

His Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont were 0 for their last 6 attempts prior to that win

I like the fact that his Maidens on the Dirt still have a win percentage of 46.1% which passes the 40% rule so we will continue to watch his Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont until it goes down to 30%

Let's see if his next group of Maidens can turn things around and put win profits in the plus column!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

Well #4 Tempestad came through today with a win for Pletcher paying $9.80 across the board!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletchermdnsbeldrt.jpg

His Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont were 0 for their last 6 attempts prior to that win

I like the fact that his Maidens on the Dirt still have a win percentage of 46.1% which passes the 40% rule so we will continue to watch his Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont until it goes down to 30%

Let's see if his next group of Maidens can turn things around and put win profits in the plus column!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

Pletcher has another Maiden on the Dirt today at Belmont in the 6th race today

6th race
#7 Saraab

Let's see if he can get back to back wins for his Maidens at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

Pletcher has another Maiden on the Dirt today at Belmont in the 6th race today

6th race
#7 Saraab

Let's see if he can get back to back wins for his Maidens at Belmont!!!


I was hoping Pletcher would get back to back wins for his Maidens but it was not to be today as #7 Saraab finished off the board


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletchermdnsdrtbel.jpg


I will continue to watch his Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont!!!

[n.c]

what is the winning% of the ml fav, when it comes to maidens??? probably Pletcher has a maiden running in every mdn race:)

[n.c]

when it comes to pk3, exacta, Tri and super when pletcher wins the race???

[TheOracle]

what is the winning% of the ml fav, when it comes to maidens??? probably Pletcher has a maiden running in every mdn race:)

Hey N.C,

I took a quick peak of the Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 that are Maidens so far for this year at Belmont Turf and Dirt they are winning at a rate of 35%

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelmdn.jpg

Pletcher has had 8 of them of which 4 have won but you are just barely getting your money back per $2 win bet


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiverspletchmdnbel.jpg


So far they all seem to be on the Dirt

Let's see how well they do as the season progresses

[TheOracle]

when it comes to pk3, exacta, Tri and super when pletcher wins the race???

Here is Pletcher's overall record at Belmont so far since opening day


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/http://www.insidethnumbers.net/images/comments/pletcheroverallbel.jpg[IMG]http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletcheroverallbel.jpg

I'm not sure what the pk3, exacta, Tri and super paid when he won those 12 races but with the exception of the 3 that paid over $10 I can't imagine that those payouts were big as the win prices were primarily small.

His average win payout is inflated due to the $34 number on May 3rd, and the $16 number on May 20th.

I would venture a guess that the payouts to the other exotics were not big at all

[n.c]

10 horse field vs 7 or less and see if the pay out doubles on exacta, tri and superfecta

My thinking, on a small field , Pletcher wins, not worth blowing money on ex, tri and super

but if it is a large field, and Pletcher wins, the payout maybe double or triple on the ex, tri and super

so Keying long shots on bigger fields, with Pletcher on top might be worth it.

IF Pletcers mdn winning percentage is about the same on small field vs bigger fields, go with the exotics on the biggers fields.

[TheOracle]

10 horse field vs 7 or less and see if the pay out doubles on exacta, tri and superfecta

My thinking, on a small field , Pletcher wins, not worth blowing money on ex, tri and super

but if it is a large field, and Pletcher wins, the payout maybe double or triple on the ex, tri and super

so Keying long shots on bigger fields, with Pletcher on top might be worth it.

IF Pletcers mdn winning percentage is about the same on small field vs bigger fields, go with the exotics on the biggers fields.

Hey N.C.

I will have to work on that because I do see that of his 4 wins in Maiden races, where his horse was the Morning Line Favorite, those races were in small fields (i.e. less than or equal to 7)

I will have to make the field size as an option when I search

Great point!!

[n.c]

Andy Serling mentioned before Preakness, that Pletcher horses have gone cold last few days and Always Dreaming ran out of money. Barns do go on bad streaks, but Pletcher horses all expensive.

[n.c]

is there any way to keep track of Pletcher mcl that has been claimed...how many of them actually came back to win MCL at the same level, step up or step down..winning percentage of these horses that has been claimed from Pletcher. I am going to guess, you will probably not see any MCL stepping up to MSW and win under the new trainer.


How about Pletcher stepping up in MCL to a higher MCL or MSW..His winning percentage..odds probably way better on those horses. Maybe key those horses 2nd and 3rd on Tri and super, with better odds.

[TheOracle]

Andy Serling mentioned before Preakness, that Pletcher horses have gone cold last few days and Always Dreaming ran out of money. Barns do go on bad streaks, but Pletcher horses all expensive.

Hey N.C.

Yes Pletcher's Maidens have been struggling lately since May 5th his Maidens have only won 2 races at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletchermdnsbelstrgl.jpg


I'm also noticing that the oddsmaker is starting to shy away from putting his horses as the Morning Line Favorite it's not as automatic as was the case previously especially prior to May 13th

[TheOracle]

is there any way to keep track of Pletcher mcl that has been claimed...how many of them actually came back to win MCL at the same level, step up or step down..winning percentage of these horses that has been claimed from Pletcher. I am going to guess, you will probably not see any MCL stepping up to MSW and win under the new trainer.


How about Pletcher stepping up in MCL to a higher MCL or MSW..His winning percentage..odds probably way better on those horses. Maybe key those horses 2nd and 3rd on Tri and super, with better odds.

Hey N.C.

I don't have access to any of his horses that were claimed from his Maiden Claiming races

However, you bring up an interesting point and I was thinking about it yesterday

I am interested to see what happens when he brings back the Maidens, either Maiden Claimers or Special Weight, that recently lost

I want to see if they come back and win with some big prices since people are starting to shy away from him now

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletcherlosersmdnsbel.jpg

With the exception of Tempestad who has already won, I would like to see what the other Maidens do when they come back to race again at Belmont

I am hoping they pop for some big prices!!!

[TheOracle]

Andy Serling mentioned before Preakness, that Pletcher horses have gone cold last few days and Always Dreaming ran out of money. Barns do go on bad streaks, but Pletcher horses all expensive.


Hey N. C.

You are correct Pletcher's horses have gone cold

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pletcherbarncold.jpg

His barn has only 2 wins in their last 23 attempts and his horses Morning Line Odds have drifted up his horses are not the automatic Morning Line Favorites which was the case previously