Stock Market Prediction

[Buckeye]

Remain calm at all times.

Jim Mattis had an expiration date too apparently.

The United States is currently "mixing it up" with the World and my bets are all down.

[Ocala Mike]

All self-inflicted wounds. Remember Boxcar's avatar about Obama, "One Big Ass Mistake, America"? Looks to me that he retired it 2 years too early!

[ultracapper]

What is with these wild swings that seem to happen a few times a week the last few months? I don't ever remember this kind of craziness becoming almost normal in years past.

They really aren't that wild. Oct 1987 when the DJIA dumped 500 pts it was nearly a quarter of the DJIA total. Today, it's not even 2.5% or a tenth of that. I know what you're saying CJ. It took me awhile to see a 450 pt gain and not say, "Whoa, what a day". I've gotten use to looking at my brokerage page, and toggling from pt loss of 200, to percentage loss of 0.8%.

DJIA is about 4100 pts off it's all time high, a drop of roughly 16%. I don't think the index reached 4100 in it's entire history until the '90s sometime.

[ultracapper]

I'm pissed about gas prices around the country compared to here. I think I paid $3.18 for mid-grade the other day. Reg unleaded just went under $3 this past weekend. Heating oil is $3.22. That's the low ball side of it at super markets and convenience stores. The national retailers like XOM, ARCO, and Texaco are about $0.30 higher across the board.

[kingfin66]

I'm pissed about gas prices around the country compared to here. I think I paid $3.18 for mid-grade the other day. Reg unleaded just went under $3 this past weekend. Heating oil is $3.22. That's the low ball side of it at super markets and convenience stores. The national retailers like XOM, ARCO, and Texaco are about $0.30 higher across the board.

That is because we pay a bullshit gas tax of 67.8 cents per gallon (18.4 Fed + 49.4 state). It could be worse, we could be in California. Still, your prices in Seattle are still higher than other areas. I paid $2.99 at Fred Meyer in Sumner tonight.

[Buckeye]

All self-inflicted wounds. Remember Boxcar's avatar about Obama, "One Big Ass Mistake, America"? Looks to me that he retired it 2 years too early!

See, that's an Unconstitutional Statement on your part if I read it correctly.

Do you think Obama should still be the President?

[reckless]

I am making a personal bet today as we are very close to the bottom of this down swing in the market.

I have 2-3 companies in mind to buy but I will not mention them until 12-31-18. On 12-31-19 I will list those stocks again with their closing prices.

There are too many positives happening in the economy and with the companies I am interested --plus the overall market-- not to be higher next year.

Good luck.

[Ocala Mike]

See, that's an Unconstitutional Statement on your part if I read it correctly.

Do you think Obama should still be the President?

Of course not - I meant that Trump is the big mistake! Boxcar should recycle the avatar.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I am making a personal bet today as we are very close to the bottom of this down swing in the market.

I have 2-3 companies in mind to buy but I will not mention them until 12-31-18. On 12-31-19 I will list those stocks again with their closing prices.

There are too many positives happening in the economy and with the companies I am interested --plus the overall market-- not to be higher next year.

Good luck.

The US economy is decelerating. If credit spreads stay elevated/widen further, things will slow further. Not a political statement (I prefer not to debate politics in the financial markets area; I'm sure I've failed in the past).

Collective (add up all the major central banks' actions) reverse QE continues - turned negative just recently. Big headwind.

I like your focus on individual names - please post and good luck.

[lamboguy]

The US economy is decelerating. If credit spreads stay elevated/widen further, things will slow further. Not a political statement (I prefer not to debate politics in the financial markets area; I'm sure I've failed in the past).

Collective (add up all the major central banks' actions) reverse QE continues - turned negative just recently. Big headwind.

I like your focus on individual names - please post and good luck.whenever new markets for goods and services opens up in the world, the US markets went up. now it looks like we are backing away from emerging markets and the regular places that we did business with have implemented large tariffs against our goods. right here and right now, we are in a big economic war that has not yet been decided.

the China mandate has always been to take over the world, they cannot win with military, but they are sure doing a good job economically.

[lamboguy]

Where are the key support levels on the S&P in the opinion of technically oriented posters?i was looking for some real support and the only case i can make is the market went up to fast in the last 2 years so there really isn't any good support until it goes substantially lower than 2 years ago.

i am not saying you won't get a dead cat bounce at some point, but that will make for some real good shorting opportunities.

you may want to pick some individual stocks and find the needle in the haystack, but its not worth it at this point in time. you are better off waiting for the bounce and play short at that time.

[reckless]

I am making a personal bet today as we are very close to the bottom of this down swing in the market.

I have 2-3 companies in mind to buy but I will not mention them until 12-31-18. On 12-31-19 I will list those stocks again with their closing prices.

There are too many positives happening in the economy and with the companies I am interested --plus the overall market-- not to be higher next year.

Good luck.

I bought Coca-Cola (KO) this afternoon at $47.50 or so. Never ever looked at KO before but two events happened this year that I like, alot:

(1) KO sold off their bottlers and that is a big plus for someone such as myself that looks at Free Cash Flow as the major investing metric. Too much capital expenditures in the past and the bottling plants were a huge drain on cash flow.

(2) The company also named a young, new CEO who seems like he has the goods. Times will tell.

3.2% dividend yield for a company entering a (possible) growth phase while the money managers look at other companies to chat up is OK by me. I do not think KO is on anyone's radar screen.

Plus, finally, I am betting that rates will be lower or flat in 2019 and not higher, despite J. Powell's attempt to kill the Trump economy.

Not sure yet if this is it for me for 2018. I just don't like the way the market is playing.

[lamboguy]

the volume on this move is huge. usually, when markets move down, they go down pretty fast.

there is no fear in the market, that is a problem in paradise. market bottoms don't come without fear into. there are no real levels for support now and the math looks ugly for this very fast acceleration on the way down.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I bought Coca-Cola (KO) this afternoon at $47.50 or so. Never ever looked at KO before but two events happened this year that I like, alot:

(1) KO sold off their bottlers and that is a big plus for someone such as myself that looks at Free Cash Flow as the major investing metric. Too much capital expenditures in the past and the bottling plants were a huge drain on cash flow.

(2) The company also named a young, new CEO who seems like he has the goods. Times will tell.

3.2% dividend yield for a company entering a (possible) growth phase while the money managers look at other companies to chat up is OK by me. I do not think KO is on anyone's radar screen.

Plus, finally, I am betting that rates will be lower or flat in 2019 and not higher, despite J. Powell's attempt to kill the Trump economy.

Not sure yet if this is it for me for 2018. I just don't like the way the market is playing.

I went one post without violating what I just said, so call me a liar, but I can't let this pass. Who the hell appointed Powell? Yellen was an uber dove - that's what Trump wanted, but he couldn't keep an Obama appointee. So if Powell tanks anything, the Stable Genius owns it. No one, and I mean no one, thought Powell was as dovish as Yellen. Actually, he was thought to be the most hawkish Fed chair since Volker. Buck stops at DJT's desk. Sorry, he wanted all the credited, so now he takes all the blame.

All of the above said, I do wish you the best of luck with KO.

[Saratoga_Mike]

the volume on this move is huge. usually, when markets move down, they go down pretty fast.

there is no fear in the market, that is a problem in paradise. market bottoms don't come without fear into. there are no real levels for support now and the math looks ugly for this very fast acceleration on the way down.

I can't believe the VIX isn't going absolutely nuts to the upside, so I agree with your comment.

[lamboguy]

I can't believe the VIX isn't going absolutely nuts to the upside, so I agree with your comment.you can also look at the trin and come up with the same conclusion,,,

[reckless]

I went one post without violating what I just said, so call me a liar, but I can't let this pass. Who the hell appointed Powell? Yellen was an uber dove - that's what Trump wanted, but he couldn't keep an Obama appointee. So if Powell tanks anything, the Stable Genius owns it. No one, and I mean no one, thought Powell was as dovish as Yellen. Actually, he was thought to be the most hawkish Fed chair since Volker. Buck stops at DJT's desk. Sorry, he wanted all the credited, so now he takes all the blame.

All of the above said, I do wish you the best of luck with KO.

Mike, the Federal Reserve is 'independent' no? We are told this countless times when a Republican president is in office.

Bill Clinton publicly taunted Greenspan about re-appointment to keep him in line. Greenspan did as he was told and kept his job way beyond his usefullness. No one ever wrote or reported how 'bad' it was for Clinton to 'interfere' with the 'independent' Fed then.

Yellen was a dove as you say because the US and world economy was in the crapper. But, are you telling me no one spoke to her from the White House, ever?

This market has been almost straight downhill since October 3 or so when Powell said he'll raise rates 2-3 this year AND 3-4 times in 2019!!

Powell is yet another in a long string of Fed economists who has no clue about the real world. There was absolute no reason for the rate hike the other day and while Powell seemed to walk back the '3-4 rate hikes' in 2019, he was so vague, no one really knows what he was actually saying. These Fed people know so little about Main Street but are geniuses at double-talk. And he read from notes!!

He previously said the economy was too strong and that near total employment is a no-no. Only the Philips Curve idiots believe that GDP growth, wage gains and low unemployment is inflationary and bad for the economy. Only idiots think this, which many in the Fed believe throughout the USA.

Slower home and car sales were signalling a slower growth period 6 months ago but the Fed continuously raised rates. I agree with you that we are slowing down economically but still far from a recession. And there is no reason to raise rates, except to kill the economy and the stock market.

Trump cannot be held responsible for the actions of Powell even if he picked him. Anyway, the Yellen under Trump would not be the same Yellen she was for Obama.

Yellen would have acted the same way Powell has acted once Trump became president. You cannot tell me that politics don't play a role in this. It's played right in front of our eyes every day.

Thanks about my KO buy. I am a little surprised after all my years in the market -- never looked at KO. But I will give this company a chance to turn itself around -- and KO's issues were never like those at IBM and GE so I am very optimistic (as always). You should also do KO work for a possible investment.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Thanks about my KO buy. I am a little surprised after all my years in the market -- never looked at KO. But I will give this company a chance to turn itself around -- and KO's issues were never like those at IBM and GE so I am very optimistic (as always). You should also do KO work for a possible investment.

I'd be happy to respond to your first statement (btw, read "Secrets of the Temple," probably one of the best books ever written on the Fed), but let's take it over to the general section. I really try not to get into politics on this board (I know I violated that rule a few posts ago). I'm not even sure if it's board rule, but I'd rather talk to you about stocks/the market without politicizing everything.

On Coke, it's the right zip code for this market, probably declines less.

[Saratoga_Mike]

gee thanks for the heads up,after we have dropped 10% and many sectors are in bear markets you get a sell signal,ill take the contrarian view and predict we will be at new highs next year.Your TA is worthless.

Let's see, down an additional 11.7% since his post. His TA was not worthless. Charts are the collective intelligence of the market, but I wouldn't rely on charts alone, as I'm fundamentalist who respects charts.

[ReplayRandall]

Amazing the people that would buy into this market....Oh well, it's their funeral, I'm not bailing them out this time....Let the selloff commence..:rip:

I believe there's much more to come before any signs of a rally takes place.

[lamboguy]

I'd be happy to respond to your first statement (btw, read "Secrets of the Temple," probably one of the best books ever written on the Fed), but let's take it over to the general section. I really try not to get into politics on this board (I know I violated that rule a few posts ago). I'm not even sure if it's board rule, but I'd rather talk to you about stocks/the market without politicizing everything.

On Coke, it's the right zip code for this market, probably declines less.
this market is picking up steam on the way down. the multination's haven't really got hit yet, but i think it might be the worst place to be when its all said and done,

when you asked me about support i answered its pretty hard to find some solid spot due to how fast the markets went up at the end of its bull market. the recent tax cut did nothing but elevate it to the stratosphere. but your buddy, THE STABLE GENIOUS aka TRICKY TRUMP, is probably going to get rid of the Fed Chairman. that might bring some type of bounce, that will present some excellent shorting opportunities. if it was me i would probably get rid of the FED altogether and take the punishment and start all over. because at the end of the day, it's not only the president's policy that will kill these markets but the whole federal reserve system deserves the brunt of the blame.

Saratoga Mike probably hates me for writing this, and i only hope i am wrong, but in my eyes, i can only see some rotten spiral and bad things to come, and come real fast

[lamboguy]

if you are good at dancing, there will be a bounce in the markets on Wednesday that should last for about an hour

[Buckeye]

The Market is in Panic Mode and just following the Fed so maybe we should just STOP talking about the Market?

"We're raising interest rates and furthermore we believe and project what will happen in 2019."

[lamboguy]

if you are good at dancing, there will be a bounce in the markets on Wednesday that should last for about an houri am done dancing for now, maybe sold to soon! beggars can't be choosers though.

[lamboguy]

this guy is going to go down as the sharpest guy i have ever heard of. when he took the secretary of state job, he had to get rid of his holdings. he owned Exxon where he was the CEO. he got out at the high and didn't have to pay taxes on what he made over 30 points higher than what it is today. Exxon looks like it has plenty more downside to me now and the guy only had to work for Trump for just a year to get the sweetheart deal of the century so far!

[Saratoga_Mike]

this market is picking up steam on the way down. the multination's haven't really got hit yet, but i think it might be the worst place to be when its all said and done,

when you asked me about support i answered its pretty hard to find some solid spot due to how fast the markets went up at the end of its bull market. the recent tax cut did nothing but elevate it to the stratosphere. but your buddy, THE STABLE GENIOUS aka TRICKY TRUMP, is probably going to get rid of the Fed Chairman. that might bring some type of bounce, that will present some excellent shorting opportunities. if it was me i would probably get rid of the FED altogether and take the punishment and start all over. because at the end of the day, it's not only the president's policy that will kill these markets but the whole federal reserve system deserves the brunt of the blame.

Saratoga Mike probably hates me for writing this, and i only hope i am wrong, but in my eyes, i can only see some rotten spiral and bad things to come, and come real fast

At a high level, there isn't much for me to "hate" here. If we transitioned back to a gold standard, as implied, I think it would be a painful process, as the Fed's money printing powers would be limited. Also, if you look at periods under the gold standards, there were booms and busts, just like today, but prospectively it would certainly curb incremental leverage (i.e., the short-term pain). As you've pointed out before (I believe), exiting the gold standard is what put us in today's predicament.

[Saratoga_Mike]

this guy is going to go down as the sharpest guy i have ever heard of. when he took the secretary of state job, he had to get rid of his holdings. he owned Exxon where he was the CEO. he got out at the high and didn't have to pay taxes on what he made over 30 points higher than what it is today. Exxon looks like it has plenty more downside to me now and the guy only had to work for Trump for just a year to get the sweetheart deal of the century so far!

That did work out well.

[lamboguy]

At a high level, there isn't much for me to "hate" here. If we transitioned back to a gold standard, as implied, I think it would be a painful process, as the Fed's money printing powers would be limited. Also, if you look at periods under the gold standards, there were booms and busts, just like today, but prospectively it would certainly curb incremental leverage (i.e., the short-term pain). As you've pointed out before (I believe), exiting the gold standard is what put us in today's predicament.
yes but if you remember, Nixon had no choice but to close the gold window. the US operated in a fixed price for gold and at the time it was $35, at the same time other markets in the world traded gold at $42. we would have lost all our gold back then if he didn't close the window. today the US is the largest holder of gold at 8 tons of the stuff. this is important because this might be the only thing that can bail us out of our monetary problems. and to get out of its problems we are going to need a much higher gold price. i was thinking that oil might be the bailout method, but it looks like other things are going to replace oil for energy.

[PaceAdvantage]

if you are good at dancing, there will be a bounce in the markets on Wednesday that should last for about an hourThat was some hour.

[lamboguy]

That was some hour.not only that, there were plenty of weak awful stocks that got some meat on the bone that you can now short.

the reason why this was so good today was because this really wasn't a broad based rally, every one was buying the same stocks.

[Saratoga_Mike]

not only that, there were plenty of weak awful stocks that got some meat on the bone that you can now short.

the reason why this was so good today was because this really wasn't a broad based rally, every one was buying the same stocks.

Countertrend rally or the bottom!?

[PaceAdvantage]

not only that, there were plenty of weak awful stocks that got some meat on the bone that you can now short.

the reason why this was so good today was because this really wasn't a broad based rally, every one was buying the same stocks.How have the big selloffs been? Broad based? Or just big names getting hammered....

[ReplayRandall]

Countertrend rally or the bottom!?

It's a relief rally....Nowhere close to the bottom, yet....

[reckless]

Dow up 1086.25 today.

When the market was dropping no one said it's a phony drop because volume wasn't real strong. But when the Dow jumps up, we get warnings that it won't last due to low volume or lack of breadth.

Rates aren't going to rise much in 2019, there won't be a recession, there won't be any inflation, any Trade War will be 'won' by the USA, sales and earnings will rise double digits, Trump will not get arrested or impeached, oil prices will moderate or fall, the tax cuts will get really going, the only thing and the SMARTEST thing to do is invest all your racetrack winnings in the market for a robust 2019 and beyond gain.

Listen to reckless ... he's the only one on here who looks out with your best interests in mind, and the greatest investing mind in the world --- :lol::lol:.

Good luck to everyone and a belated Merry Christmas to all.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Dow up 1086.25 today.

When the market was dropping no one said it's a phony drop because volume wasn't real strong. But when the Dow jumps up, we get warnings that it won't last due to low volume or lack of breadth.

Rates aren't going to rise much in 2019, there won't be a recession, there won't be any inflation, any Trade War will be 'won' by the USA, sales and earnings will rise double digits, Trump will not get arrested or impeached, oil prices will moderate or fall, the tax cuts will get really going, the only thing and the SMARTEST thing to do is invest all your racetrack winnings in the market for a robust 2019 and beyond gain.

Listen to reckless ... he's the only one on here who looks out with your best interests in mind, and the greatest investing mind in the world --- :lol::lol:.

Good luck to everyone and a belated Merry Christmas to all.

For the S&P 500? That I would bet against. The Street is at $161.40 for 2018 -- assuming that's close to reality - you're implying $177.50. You won't get much growth from financials and energy will be a drag (if, huge if, oil stays around current levels). Industrials will probably grow more slowly b/c of ROW exposure and oil drag. I'll take the under on this one. We'll revisit at the end of 2019.

Good luck to KO in 2019.

[Saratoga_Mike]

How have the big selloffs been? Broad based? Or just big names getting hammered....

SPY (market-cap wgt'd S&P 500 ETF, same as the index construction) vs RSP (equal wgt'd S&P 500 ETF). The former was up 5.05% and the latter up 4.52%. Given the magnitude of the move, that doesn't seem like a big divergence.

[Buckeye]

Dow up 1086.25 today.

When the market was dropping no one said it's a phony drop because volume wasn't real strong. But when the Dow jumps up, we get warnings that it won't last due to low volume or lack of breadth.

Rates aren't going to rise much in 2019, there won't be a recession, there won't be any inflation, any Trade War will be 'won' by the USA, sales and earnings will rise double digits, Trump will not get arrested or impeached, oil prices will moderate or fall, the tax cuts will get really going, the only thing and the SMARTEST thing to do is invest all your racetrack winnings in the market for a robust 2019 and beyond gain.

Listen to reckless ... he's the only one on here who looks out with your best interests in mind, and the greatest investing mind in the world --- :lol::lol:.

Good luck to everyone and a belated Merry Christmas to all.

Glad to know you reckless, although I'd be careful saying you're the best investing mind.

Seriously though, I agree with everything you wrote-- other than taking racetrack winnings and betting it on Wall Street.

Horseplayers are not going to play or invest in the Markets. If they did they wouldn't be horseplayers anymore, right?

[reckless]

Glad to know you reckless, although I'd be careful saying you're the best investing mind. Seriously though, I agree with everything you wrote-- other than taking racetrack winnings and betting it on Wall Street.

Horseplayers are not going to play or invest in the Markets. If they did they wouldn't be horseplayers anymore, right?

I said it but I probably do not mean it … which is why I included these emoji thingys at the end of that sentence -- :lol::lol:

I would have thought that a smart guy like you would have picked up on that, my self-deprecating humor, that is.

I am sure you have a better investing mind then I do -- as does Replay Randall, Saratoga Mike, Sammy the Sage, lambo, and plenty of others on here. I learn from each and every one, Buckeye.

Success skills in both horse racing gambling and stock market investing are tied at the hip. I have been playing the races for 35 years now and have been investing in the stock market for as long as that.

[Buckeye]

All I know about the Stock Market was gleaned watching Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.

I have shaped my own mind when it comes to the horses, and purposely rejected -whenever possible- conventional thinking.

As you said, they are tied at the hip. More than you know.

[lamboguy]

Countertrend rally or the bottom!?the main trend is down now, as i type this i see the futures are down big, i wish i went to bed with some s+p puts but i didn't, but i am loaded up short GE

[Saratoga_Mike]

DB chart is horrible -- levered 22x vs GS and JPM at roughly 9x to 10x --what could go wrong?!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Too bearish????

"AAII Sentiment Survey (comments from 12/26/18 survey--numbers below)...
Pessimism is above 50% for the first time since 2013, while neutral sentiment is at an eight-year low. Both readings are highly unusual. "

Survey Results for Week Ending 12/26/2018
HISTORICAL AVERAGE BULLISH: 38.5%
NOW BULLISH
31.5% +6.7 from last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE NEUTRAL: 31.0%
NOW NEUTRAL
18.2% -9.7 from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE BEARISH: 30.5%
NOW BEARISH
50.3% +3.0 from
last week

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

[Saratoga_Mike]

Chicago PMI prints around 65, very impressive in absolute and relative to lousy Richmond Fed # a few days ago. Not sure if the market wants positive or negative news at this point, the former could embolden the Fed.

[lamboguy]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230577-general-electric-best-stock-pick-2019?ifp=0


the only thing is that this is my top pick for shorting! one of us is completely wrong.

i saw an add today for M-Tailor. this is a company that measures your waste, lengths and fits for pants over the phone. this is a disruptive technology. its only a matter of time that you will be able to stay at home and buy your $5000 Brianna suits. this is going to put a dent into retail space, which has already been pretty dented in the last 20 years.

[lamboguy]

covered GE 7.48. will revisit at some point. market looks like there is more upside for now, don't want to be infront of it.

[Ocala Mike]

Probably a good move; hope you profited a little. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit, right?

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2019!

[reckless]

I bought some stock these past 4-5 days, but none on 12-31 as originally planned.

He is what I bought and the price I paid:

Apple (aapl) 152.25

Coca-Cola (ko) 47.50

First Data (fdc) 16.50

Lazard (laz) 35.55

MGM Resorts (mgm) 23.10

Here are their closing prices on 12-31-18:

AAPL 157.85

KO 47.35

FDC 16.91

LAZ 36.91

MGM 24.26

Dow Jones -- 23,327.45

S & P 500 -- 2,506.85

If I don't forget, I'll reprint these stocks and indices numbers at the end of 12-31-19, god willing.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Good luck with all these stocks reck.

[reckless]

Good luck with all these stocks reck.

Thanks Mike. The bear is being put to rest .... the volatility will still stay awhile but too many positives are out there for the market not to do very well in 2019.

And no, I won't re-quote my positives again.:lol:

Good luck to you too and Happy New Year to you and your family.

[Saratoga_Mike]

S&P futures fall a quick 20 points on Apple pre-release.

Prelim rev of $84 billion vs Street at $91.3 billion.

EPS roughly $4.15 (implied from metrics in press release) vs Street at $4.66.

Management blamed Chinese weakness for most of the shortfall. The company did a very good job of protecting GMs despite the rev shortfall. The stock has traded like crap since last qtr.'s release, so it will be interesting to see what's discounted already.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Exit qtr with roughly $27/share in net cash (calc from dollar amount and share count), according to release

[reckless]

Looks to me that the strong US dollar has had a more negative effect than slowing unit sales, despite the talk on cable tv.

Apple is a money making machine, earning more money in a typical quarter than most companies do in a year. Few companies in history have compounded earnings/free cash flow at consistent double digit rates as has Apple.

[dlivery]

Federal Reserve might have not much to offer.
How can this be with Apple always taking a bite

[Saratoga_Mike]

December ISM Manufacturing 54.1 vs 57.8 Briefing.com consensus; November 59.3.

US slowdown confirmed (ISM is a great leading indicator) - the next Fed move will be a rate cut, imo. Largest month-to-month drop since 2008.

[lamboguy]

the way i read this, the market still going to go up for at least 2 more quarters. maybe back to the highs and even a good shot it surpasses it. then i see utter devastation if the numbers line up right. for now there looks like there is some money looking to enter the markets.

its down today on the heels of a weak report and AAPL. AAPL is a weak stock that has $80 billion in cash sitting in the bank. its the growth going further that doesn't look to bright for them. the time to buy AAPL is when you are paying a bigger discount to their technology. they will come up with another trick down the road.

i am going to probably re-short GE Friday and take the trade to bed with me.

[sour grapes]

the way i read this, the market still going to go up for at least 2 more quarters. maybe back to the highs and even a good shot it surpasses it. then i see utter devastation if the numbers line up right. for now there looks like there is some money looking to enter the markets.

its down today on the heels of a weak report and AAPL. AAPL is a weak stock that has $80 billion in cash sitting in the bank. its the growth going further that doesn't look to bright for them. the time to buy AAPL is when you are paying a bigger discount to their technology. they will come up with another trick down the road.

i am going to probably re-short GE Friday and take the trade to bed with me.

looks like a casualty of trumps easy to win trade war,trump doesnt realize that most US companies are global and when he slows china down it will effect other countries therefore eventually slowing down US growth and layoffs to come in the united states.But he is genius with a high IQ

[reckless]

the way i read this, the market still going to go up for at least 2 more quarters. maybe back to the highs and even a good shot it surpasses it. then i see utter devastation if the numbers line up right. for now there looks like there is some money looking to enter the markets.

its down today on the heels of a weak report and AAPL. AAPL is a weak stock that has $80 billion in cash sitting in the bank. its the growth going further that doesn't look to bright for them. the time to buy AAPL is when you are paying a bigger discount to their technology. they will come up with another trick down the road.

i am going to probably re-short GE Friday and take the trade to bed with me.

I have this sickness that probably will cause me some sleepless nights but I bought some stock again today. The selling was just too much. We've reached a point where stocks are being 'given away' -- prices very far from their intrinsic value.

I bought some more Apple today at $142.25. Ten bucks cheaper than I paid last week. :bang::bang:

At this better price I still get the greatest money machine in the history of finance and business just cheaper ... plus a growing 2 per cent dividend, plus all that accumulated cash that has grown to be a $80 billion pile as lambo reported. And, which the company sells at about 13 times that FCF. Cheap.

The end of constant and silly Fed rate hikes in 2019 will help Apple way more than anything you'll read or hear in the business press. Rates will be down to flat in 2019, despite Jerome Powell. The selling, even with 'weak' guidance is way overdone.

I also bought some Lyondell Basell Industries at $82.30. Here's another consistent earnings grower and free cash producer with a 4.8 per cent dividend, 35 per cent ROIC and is now in a very strong growth mode. And the company sells at a ridiculous 7 times FCF. It's a mid major chemical company that will benefit from failing oil prices and a weakening US dollar big time.

Not to disagree with my friend lamboguy but I don't understand what he means when he says the time to buy Apple is when they sell at a discount to their technology. Apple hasn't been a pure tech company for many years. It is a lifestyle and marketing company -- and they don't sell-out their customers like Facebook and Google does. Apple created a ecosystem that has reached such a level that every dollar in sales almost directly goes straight to the bottom line.

I won't be buying any stock near term. I have bought stock on my birthday every year since 1990 and it has served me well. And I will again.

Don't wish me luck ... just call a psychiatrist. :lol::lol:

[lamboguy]

Berkshire Hathaway owns 258 million shares of AAPL. there is now way they can dump that one in one shot. it could take them 6 months to get out of all those shares now. i don't know if they are selling, but if they are there will be a lot of pressure on that stock for some time to come. to me, that stock has between 122-130 written all over it. if you want to get aggressive, 92 is possible.

this thing has gone straight down since 233 and its a great company with lots of cash and cash flow.

[lamboguy]

I have this sickness that probably will cause me some sleepless nights but I bought some stock again today. The selling was just too much. We've reached a point where stocks are being 'given away' -- prices very far from their intrinsic value.

I bought some more Apple today at $142.25. Ten bucks cheaper than I paid last week. :bang::bang:

At this better price I still get the greatest money machine in the history of finance and business just cheaper ... plus a growing 2 per cent dividend, plus all that accumulated cash that has grown to be a $80 billion pile as lambo reported. And, which the company sells at about 13 times that FCF. Cheap.

The end of constant and silly Fed rate hikes in 2019 will help Apple way more than anything you'll read or hear in the business press. Rates will be down to flat in 2019, despite Jerome Powell. The selling, even with 'weak' guidance is way overdone.

I also bought some Lyondell Basell Industries at $82.30. Here's another consistent earnings grower and free cash producer with a 4.8 per cent dividend, 35 per cent ROIC and is now in a very strong growth mode. And the company sells at a ridiculous 7 times FCF. It's a mid major chemical company that will benefit from failing oil prices and a weakening US dollar big time.

Not to disagree with my friend lamboguy but I don't understand what he means when he says the time to buy Apple is when they sell at a discount to their technology. Apple hasn't been a pure tech company for many years. It is a lifestyle and marketing company -- and they don't sell-out their customers like Facebook and Google does. Apple created a ecosystem that has reached such a level that every dollar in sales almost directly goes straight to the bottom line.

I won't be buying any stock near term. I have bought stock on my birthday every year since 1990 and it has served me well. And I will again.

Don't wish me luck ... just call a psychiatrist. :lol::lol:i am dividing the company in 2. first the $80 billion and then whatever is left. obviously, you can't short cash, but you can short an idea. i think the company is very innovative but i am also looking at the selling pressure on the stock now and figure that selling usually gets overdone when a stock gets routed.

what it comes down to is that i see 2 possible lower levels one between $130- $122. the other one is a drop dead number of $92 that could happen if the market comes completely apart for whatever reasons. when they raid the whore house, they take all the girls with them.

[reckless]

Berkshire Hathaway owns 258 million shares of AAPL. there is now way they can dump that one in one shot. it could take them 6 months to get out of all those shares now. i don't know if they are selling, but if they are there will be a lot of pressure on that stock for some time to come. to me, that stock has between 122-130 written all over it. if you want to get aggressive, 92 is possible.

this thing has gone straight down since 233 and its a great company with lots of cash and cash flow.

Say it ain't so... that's 50 bucks less than what I paid today!! :lol::lol:

Some things will never happen, btw, and some will happen that are not factored in or totally ignored:

One is ... Buffett will never unwind his AAPL holdings -- with the dividends and buybacks, he says he'll be a 10 per cent owner in just a few years. Imagine that... 10 percent. I own 750 shares that I started buying 15 freaking years before Buffett ever bought a single share, and at a fraction of the price that he paid!! And I feel I am the richest guy on earth. Wow. Ten percent ownership. In my dreams.

Apple is the greatest operating company in the history of finance but I do concede the market is in a shit hole right now and it could go down further.

A weakening dollar is a greater probability than the dollar rising higher. Interest rates won't be raised more than once in 2019, if that. That weakens the dollar. A weaker dollar will help Apple more than anything.

A probable trade deal with China is also beneficial and that has been ignored in the media these past few days. A trade deal sends stocks higher and higher, as will no Fed increase ... plus other factors that I mentioned twice just a few posts back: lower unemployment, lower or steady oil prices, wages increasing, higher corporate earnings ... higher dividends and buy-backs by companies, lower corporate and individual tax rates ... the sky is the limit with all this good news. :lol::lol:

All that I have written now and earlier have a much better chance of happening than not.

So, close your eyes and ears and buy some of the best companies on earth that are currently for sale. Good luck.

Happy New Year.

[Valuist]

Why buy AAPL now? People said it was cheap when it went under $200. Same thing at $175. Same thing last week and today. The chart is broken and will take months to prepare. Never try to catch a falling knife and call an absolute bottom.

[lamboguy]

my best advice is to always have a defined risk in the markets. always have a stop in somewhere. its insurance policy because we are humans and tend to be wrong more often than right.

[Ocala Mike]

Averaging down on a stock like AAPL is fighting the tape (and the Fed; oh,and throw in Trump's "China syndrome" too).

I made money with AAPL a few years back when it was in the low 100's by buying the stock and selling the calls against it. Lowered my cost basis and got out with a decent profit without being a pig.

[lamboguy]

Averaging down on a stock like AAPL is fighting the tape (and the Fed; oh,and throw in Trump's "China syndrome" too).

I made money with AAPL a few years back when it was in the low 100's by buying the stock and selling the calls against it. Lowered my cost basis and got out with a decent profit without being a pig.i have been averaging down now on a stock for 5 years and so far i am destroyed. but i suspect i am going to wind up with a homerun pretty soon. MUX.

Jesse Livermore said, "when you know you're right, you must sit tight"

[Ocala Mike]

I got in and out of MUX when you touted it years ago. Can't see the upside - are they gonna discover a new mine or something? If you're bullish on gold, why not just buy the metal?

I also think you were wise to cover on GE.

As for me, I gave out TNDM this year, and I made some $ in it (but nowhere near the killing I should have made). I'm taking a small shot in a vaccine company, NVAX, working on a flu vaccine and an RSV vaccine. Good news today.

[lamboguy]

i must have traded NOVAVAX 50 times when there was a bird flu epidemic about a decade ago,

Rob Mcewen is the CEO for MUX, he was CEO of GOLDCORP 10 years ago. that stock went from $2 to $52. any gold miner is just an option on gold that does not expire but can go out of business.

MUX has no debt and has plenty of properties with assets in the ground. to me the downside is they do business in Mexico.

when i trade equities or markets i always look for where the volume was. in MUX there is volume at $9. in my world volume attracts price at some point in time. light volume at lows proves the stock doesn't want to go down further and could move up back to the highs or beyond.

volume and price is how stocks do their talking, walking and squawking.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Powell sounded a smidge more dovish in today's Q&A session in Atlanta. After the last FOMC meeting, he said the balance sheet was "on autopilot." Today, he basically said nothing is etched in stone (not exact words).

[ultracapper]

Apple is off it's all time high by more than the entire market capitalization of Facebook. It has taken quite the pounding.

[lamboguy]

re short GE 8.20. stop out for the day at 8.26, then take it home over the weekend.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Impressive follow-thru day - up vs down volume ultra strong --north of 15x

[Saratoga_Mike]

GE...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-04/apollo-considers-bid-for-ge-jet-leasing-business-ge-stock-rises

[reckless]

Those that believe the stock market will tank in 2019 ... good luck.

As I have said on here many times, the economy, fiscal policy, interest rates, failing oil and commodity prices, peace, steady and growing earnings and dividends ... all point to rising equity prices not lower.

Here is another example for investing in, and not being out of the market:

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/156945000-2018-ends-record-employment-participation-rate-hits-trump-era

... The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday the economy added an impressive 312,000 jobs in December, which was a month of strong retail sales; and the nation's unemployment rate increased two-tenths of a point to 3.9 percent, which is still an 18-year low.

The number of employed Americans has now set a 14th record under Trump:

When Trump became president in January 2017, 152,076,000 Americans were employed. Last month, that number grew to a record 156,945,000, a gain of 4,869,000 in two years. ...

[Saratoga_Mike]

On oil....

Crude oil prices have fallen 30 percent or more 13 times since 1982, according to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. Of the prior 12 occurrences, the oil drop overlapped eight times with what Ned Davis Research defines as a cyclical bear market - a 30 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI after 50 calendar days or a 13 percent decline after 145 calendar days.

Source: Reuters

On commodities, weak commodity prices don't typically bode well for equity markets.

Not looking to argue with you about the market (price action over the past week has been impressive), but you make opinion posts as if they're fact. When in reality, the opposite is true (see oil).

[lamboguy]

anyone can read a company report and see what is happening with interest rates.

the idea of the market is to be ahead of that stuff and predict what is going to happen 9 months from now.

my opinion of this market is that it is going to test out the prior high and maybe a little further then i believe its going to get a major haircut and finish the year off much lower than what it is today.

that is my opinion and it can change. as everyone knows the markets have opposite directions that it can travel. when the markets go up they tend to climb stairs and when they go down, an elevator takes it there.

[reckless]

On oil....

Crude oil prices have fallen 30 percent or more 13 times since 1982, according to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. Of the prior 12 occurrences, the oil drop overlapped eight times with what Ned Davis Research defines as a cyclical bear market - a 30 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI after 50 calendar days or a 13 percent decline after 145 calendar days.

Source: Reuters

On commodities, weak commodity prices don't typically bode well for equity markets.

Not looking to argue with you about the market (price action over the past week has been impressive), but you make opinion posts as if they're fact. When in reality, the opposite is true (see oil).

Yes, you are correct. Weak commodity prices could hurt the equity market. I used that in my last post because the market had dropped since Oct. 3, 2018 on fear of inflation and the rising of interest rates, based on that stupid analysis by Powell.

FWIW, I always felt disinflation was far worse than inflation. But then, everything is OK until it is not OK.

Failing oil prices, or better, a steady level of prices, is great for industry and the economy and that makes it great for equity prices.

Sure if oil drops to $25-30 a barrel it will kill small Texas banks that finance drillers based on $80 oil, as it happened countless times. Large multinationals like XON, BP, RDS, etc., need higher prices too and lower oil hurts their bottom line a bit. But the rest of mankind benefits when oil is steady at $40-50 bucks or so.

While I make such posts that you call opinions I view them as facts for my wallet and peace of mind. Name one thing I listed that isn't a fact -- and remember, Mike, I listed all those things as my reasons for calling a great 2019 in the stock market. I gave those reasons why I think so -- and bought stocks these past 2-3 weeks to support my 'opinion'. And I also added that the volatility is killing me and I am going nuts. :)

And, I may add, I am just about the only one on here that has expressed this view of rising stock prices in 2019.

PS--I don't think you are being argumentative at all. There should be more like it on here, truth be known.

[Buckeye]

To your point reckless, deflation is much worse than inflation in that the value of property owned is destroyed. Inflation hurts less.

I don't even think they taught me this at Wharton!

[Ocala Mike]

Opinions are like assholes, and here's mine. GE will be $8.60 before it hits $6.60, but good luck on your trade.



Got this right on 12/20. Too bad I didn't act on it for a quick 20-25% move.

Meanwhile, TNDM, ETSY, and NVAX still riding high.

[Buckeye]

Here's my prediction, almost everything said here will be wrong (not including this).

There is a connection between what the Market will do and who will win a horse race.

[sammy the sage]

Here's my prediction,

There is a connection between what the Market will do and who will win a horse race.

Whatever you were having when you wrote this last night...would like to try some...please post what it was....thanks.....seriously...

[Buckeye]

Whatever you were having when you wrote this last night...would like to try some...please post what it was....thanks.....seriously...

Ever hear of the "Random Walk Theory?"

[sammy the sage]

Ever hear of the "Random Walk Theory?"

How about "Entanglement theory" ...quantum mechanics...

[Buckeye]

I'm just trying to predict what will happen in the Xpressbet Contest.

I'm not a physicist and I doubt you are.

I'm going to rely on my artistic side if you don't mind.

[FakeNameChanged]

i have been averaging down now on a stock for 5 years and so far i am destroyed. but i suspect i am going to wind up with a homerun pretty soon. MUX.

Jesse Livermore said, "when you know you're right, you must sit tight"Somewhat funny that you're quoting someone who squandered his entire 100 million in trading capital and blew his brains out. Jesse blamed his financial demise on not following his own trading rules.

[Saratoga_Mike]

FDC acquired at 27% premium!

[kingfin66]

FDC acquired at 27% premium!

Discount?

Edit:

Never mind, I see that it is up, or had been up, 27 percent today.

[highnote]

I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.

Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.

Last time I made this prediction I got the direction right, but it took a little longer than 6 months to hit the target.

The cyclical low of the S&P was 2351 back on December 24, 2018. If it increased by 4% from that low to 2445, that would be a buy signal. It rose 4% by December 26. That signals a lot of buying momentum.

So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.

The following indicator is why I am so bullish:

On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.

There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.

The last time the Adv/Dec vol ratio was greater than 9-1 was on January 29, 2016. July 2016. Before that it was October 5, 2015. There were a bunch of 9-1's back in late 2008 when the market was volatile. There were also a bunch of 1-9's which signaled a lot of selling. The market didn't know which way to go.

Then on March 23, 2009 the Adv vol to Dec vol ratio hit 48-1! The bull market was in full swing at that point.

The ratio was 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That's only half as strong as March of 2019, but it is the strongest and only one since election day November 7, 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would be the president.

Since Trump got elected there have been 6 or 7 days where the Declining volume exceeded the Advancing volume by a ratio of 9 to 1. This is not meant to be a political thread, but only to show that there was a lot of uncertainty during Trump's first two years in office. Not all of the uncertainty was due to him, but, nevertheless, it happened during his tenure.

However, it looks like that uncertainty has been priced into the market and now the market should do well over the next 6 months.

[lamboguy]

it certainly looks like there is money coming in buying these markets now and could last until the 3rd quarter. the volume indicators that you are using look like a fairly good model.

my guess is that the markets will test or surpass the lows for the year after that if the volume doesn't hold up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, this is a relief! Phew! I thought the world was a comin' to an end lately...:pound:

[highnote]

Well, this is a relief! Phew! I thought the world was a comin' to an end lately...:pound:

Things were much worse back in 2008 and early 2009. If the world was going to end, it would have been then.

The best time to buy is when the people think the world is going to end.

Buy when there is blood in the streets.

[PaceAdvantage]

There was definitely NO blood in the streets this past month or so...I can tell you that.

Only bogus fear-monger headlines...

[highnote]

There was definitely NO blood in the streets this past month or so...I can tell you that.

Only bogus fear-monger headlines...

Things were not nearly as bad the past few months as back in 08-09, but still, I've been sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market.

Indicators might not always be correct, but based on the historical records, after a 10 day period of the advancing stocks to declining stocks having a ratio of 2-1 or more, the market increases, on average, by 15% in the next six months.

It might be wrong this time, but the market is more likely to go up than down. So that's the way I'm playing it.

[Tape Reader]

The jig is up. Start shorting.

[highnote]

The jig is up. Start shorting.

It might be time to start shorting. No one really knows.

With the fed being dovish and upward momentum in prices and volume, it seems more likely that the market will go up 15% before it drops 10% or 20%.

[reckless]

The jig is up. Start shorting.

What happened that makes you think the jig is up? Serious question, Tape Reader.

[ReplayRandall]

The jig is up. Start shorting.

What happened that makes you think the jig is up? Serious question, Tape Reader.
I'm also wanting to hear what you have to say, Tape Reader......

[Tape Reader]

I'm also wanting to hear what you have to say, Tape Reader......

Home grown stuff. Waves. We may bounce a bit but the rally for the most part is over.

[highnote]

Home grown stuff. Waves. We may bounce a bit but the rally for the most part is over.

I think the rally has just gotten started.

As long as interest rates stay low and there is no major unforeseen event the market should go up for the next 6 months.

[PaceAdvantage]

The above is what makes markets, and makes horses races...:pound::ThmbUp:

[highnote]

The above is what makes markets, and makes horses races...:pound::ThmbUp:

Yep

[Buckeye]

The above is what makes markets, and makes horses races...:pound::ThmbUp:

Hey wait a minute, who said that?

The Market is on a random walk with an upward trend while horse races likewise act randomly with an upward trend depending on you!

[Buckeye]

Only difference is the Market's upward trend is based upon increased productivity while the successful horseplayer relies upon artistic expression.

[reckless]

I know The Vanguard Group is now the largest money management firm in the country thanks primarily to the late Jack Bogle promoting a 'random walk' investment theory ... and I know William Sharp is a Noble Prize winner with his efficient market theory ...

but I bought my very first stock in the late 1970s and I can tell you first hand that stock market investing is neither random nor efficient.

[MutuelClerk]

Those of you holding SFOR. Big day in court today. Hopefully things go our way.

[highnote]

A month ago I posted that my average target for the S&P is 2811 by June 16, 2019 -- a 15% increase from the close of about 2468 on December 26, 2018. The maximum upside target is 2931.

S&P currently stands at about 2770. There is still some upside remaining, but the big run up might be over. However, if this bull market lasts longer than 6 months and runs through September then there is still another 150 points to the upside to be captured.

I don't have a good probability estimate to the downside, but the old 80/20 rule might apply. There is an 80% chance SP moves higher by June and only a 20% it is lower, black swans notwithstanding.


I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.

Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.

Last time I made this prediction I got the direction right, but it took a little longer than 6 months to hit the target.

The cyclical low of the S&P was 2351 back on December 24, 2018. If it increased by 4% from that low to 2445, that would be a buy signal. It rose 4% by December 26. That signals a lot of buying momentum.

So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.

The following indicator is why I am so bullish:

On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.

There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.

The last time the Adv/Dec vol ratio was greater than 9-1 was on January 29, 2016. July 2016. Before that it was October 5, 2015. There were a bunch of 9-1's back in late 2008 when the market was volatile. There were also a bunch of 1-9's which signaled a lot of selling. The market didn't know which way to go.

Then on March 23, 2009 the Adv vol to Dec vol ratio hit 48-1! The bull market was in full swing at that point.

The ratio was 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That's only half as strong as March of 2019, but it is the strongest and only one since election day November 7, 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would be the president.

Since Trump got elected there have been 6 or 7 days where the Declining volume exceeded the Advancing volume by a ratio of 9 to 1. This is not meant to be a political thread, but only to show that there was a lot of uncertainty during Trump's first two years in office. Not all of the uncertainty was due to him, but, nevertheless, it happened during his tenure.

However, it looks like that uncertainty has been priced into the market and now the market should do well over the next 6 months.

[AltonKelsey]

SFOR to zero




Your best stock in the world nonsense just went to zero

[PaceAdvantage]

SFOR to zero




Your best stock in the world nonsense just went to zerohttps://i.imgflip.com/14vnsl.jpg

[highnote]

SFOR to zero

Your best stock in the world nonsense just went to zero

Redboarding. :D

[sammy the sage]

Well the well connected players who can trade before the average Joe....should get a real nice hit today on NIKE stock if they short it...predicting a a bit of dive...after that shoe blow-out last night....sell sell sell

[Saratoga_Mike]

Well the well connected players who can trade before the average Joe....should get a real nice hit today on NIKE stock if they short it...predicting a a bit of dive...after that shoe blow-out last night....sell sell sell

Your broker doesn't allow pre-market trading? If only well connected players can SELL (short) Nike before the open, then presumably only well connected players can BUY Nike before the open? So the well connected seller is trying to sell (short) to a well connected buyer. Edge - zero (and it isn't reality).

In reality, the well informed small investor has a big edge over the large investor b/c liquidity isn't an issue (i.e., it's easier to sell 200 shares of NKE pre-open than 200k shares).

[ReplayRandall]

Your broker doesn't allow pre-market trading? If only well connected players can SELL (short) Nike before the open, then presumably only well connected players can BUY Nike before the open? So the well connected seller is trying to sell (short) to a well connected buyer. Edge - zero (and it isn't reality).

In reality, the well informed small investor has a big edge over the large investor b/c liquidity isn't an issue (i.e., it's easier to sell 200 shares of NKE pre-open than 200k shares).

Spot-on post, 'Toga Mike...…+Points...:ThmbUp:

[highnote]

S&P is at 2808. I had predicted 2811 by June 16. If it hits 2811 today or even this week, that is months ahead of my prediction. Usually, I get the number right, but get the timing wrong. My timing is still off, but at least it is closer to hitting the target sooner than later.

My upside target is 2931. It would be nice if it hits that target sooner than later!

A month ago I posted that my average target for the S&P is 2811 by June 16, 2019 -- a 15% increase from the close of about 2468 on December 26, 2018. The maximum upside target is 2931.

S&P currently stands at about 2770. There is still some upside remaining, but the big run up might be over. However, if this bull market lasts longer than 6 months and runs through September then there is still another 150 points to the upside to be captured.

I don't have a good probability estimate to the downside, but the old 80/20 rule might apply. There is an 80% chance SP moves higher by June and only a 20% it is lower, black swans notwithstanding.

[highnote]

Last September the SP was over 2900. So it wouldn't be a stretch to see 2900 this year -- especially given the strong upward pointing momentum signals in December and January.

SP closed at 2803 on Friday. Hitting the 2811 target seems probable.

S&P is at 2808. I had predicted 2811 by June 16. If it hits 2811 today or even this week, that is months ahead of my prediction. Usually, I get the number right, but get the timing wrong. My timing is still off, but at least it is closer to hitting the target sooner than later.

My upside target is 2931. It would be nice if it hits that target sooner than later!

[highnote]

Below is an edited version of what I posted back on January 16.

My prediction was S&P 2811 by June 15, 2019. It is at 2811 today. Who knows what the next three months hold, but I'm staying long until I get a sell signal.

I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.

Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.

...

So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.

The following indicator is why I am so bullish:

On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.

There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.

...the market should do well over the next 6 months.

[highnote]

Well, the day started off on the right track. Just when you think you've got it figured out ... :D

[highnote]

Have not gotten any sell signals from my model. Finally broke through the 2811 low-side target I set for the S&P. Hope to see the high-side target of 2900+ by June.

[reckless]

Have not gotten any sell signals from my model. Finally broke through the 2811 low-side target I set for the S&P. Hope to see the high-side target of 2900+ by June.

It will get there and through 2,900 a lot sooner than June, highnote, I believe.

Powerful news on the business front today and the market reacted accordingly. I actually think today was a buy signal for a very strong near- and long-term up market.

I am not a charts guy but markets and the economy are cooking and with the rest of the world going nowhere, the USA will be the only place for money to go to.

[highnote]

It will get there and through 2,900 a lot sooner than June, highnote, I believe.

Powerful news on the business front today and the market reacted accordingly. I actually think today was a buy signal for a very strong near- and long-term up market.

I am not a charts guy but markets and the economy are cooking and with the rest of the world going nowhere, the USA will be the only place for money to go to.

Agreed. Economy seems much improved. Restaurants were filled in NYC this week and they're fairly pricey since the last time I spent much time there. Lots of people out and about. People have money and are spending it.

[wisconsin]

People have money and are spending it.


This. Seen it myself. The malls are also crowded. Not just at Christmas either.

[MutuelClerk]

This. Seen it myself. The malls are also crowded. Not just at Christmas either.

I'm not disagreeing at all the economy is better. But the malls? Around here they are empty. They weren't even that crowded at Christmas. Amazon. Plain and simple.

[sammy the sage]

So this is a stock market prediction thread....and I'll go out on limb and make prediction for monday...3/25....the market over-all tanks....100 points or more....

why....there's no news or nothing in the wind?....well there is one SMALL interesting fact....the extreme short term % rates are ACTUALLY lower than say a 3 year rate...on bonds....which is RARE....

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield

should be interesting anyways....

Be careful out there....and remember...I'm just an internet nobody...just like horse racing tips...:lol:

[Ocala Mike]

100 points on the Dow is hardly "tanking." Maybe you meant the S&P, though.

[sammy the sage]

100 points on the Dow is hardly "tanking." Maybe you meant the S&P, though.

Thinking they'll all be down...tank might be too strong a word...either way...it's a prediction...

[Half Smoke]

the talking heads are saying that there is now an inverted yield curve with bonds and that this is a signal of a coming recession

I don't buy it. total BS. has to be more than that to predict a recession


https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2019/03/23/the-yield-curve-just-inverted-putting-the-chance-of-a-recession-at-30/#4d4e7c013abd

[sammy the sage]

looks like I was wrong...wasn't the first time...won't be the last...:coffee:

[LemonSoupKid]

the talking heads are saying that there is now an inverted yield curve with bonds and that this is a signal of a coming recession

I don't buy it. total BS. has to be more than that to predict a recession


https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2019/03/23/the-yield-curve-just-inverted-putting-the-chance-of-a-recession-at-30/#4d4e7c013abd

They've been wrong for years and they'll be wrong for at least another year.

This is actually getting funny how much they show they have no idea of what's going on.

[Valuist]

How about GM as a way to play the Lyft IPO? I suspect Lyft will open much higher than the $72 listed price. GM is a major investor in Lyft.

[barn32]

How about GM as a way to play the Lyft IPO? I suspect Lyft will open much higher than the $72 listed price. GM is a major investor in Lyft.I feel like shorting this pig with both fists. Uber and Lyft are bleeding money, and now they're talking about taking more of the drivers share. The drivers of these companies don't make shit now.

What they need to do is raise fees substantially. Everyone knew this from the beginning, but their goal was to first raise market share, while at the same time putting the cab companies out of business. But if they don't raise fees they're going to lose another billion next year, and the next.

Sure it may get an initial bounce, but I wouldn't touch these Lyft or Uber IPOs with a ten-foot pole.

[Saratoga_Mike]

How about GM as a way to play the Lyft IPO? I suspect Lyft will open much higher than the $72 listed price. GM is a major investor in Lyft.

GM owns 18.66 mm shares of LYFT. At $75, the shares are worth $1.4 billion, representing $1/share in GM value (1.4 billion shares of GM outstanding). In the long term, ride-sharing should be a negative for the automotive OEMs.

[Jeff P]

Yesterday, I found an article at The Motley Fool site about the Lyft IPO --

by Alex Dumortier, CFA (TMFAleph1) Mar 28, 2019 at 11:26PM
Lyft's IPO: the One Article You Need to Read:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/03/28/lyfts-ipo-the-one-article-you-need-to-read.aspx

Starting with the customer
Theta Equity Partners ("Theta" below), a research firm, has pioneered customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV), a methodology that looks at underlying customer behaviors and their impact on a company's value. The key drivers of CBCV for a nonsubscription business are:


The average cost of acquiring customers (customer acquisition cost, or CAC)
The value customers generate (postacquisition value)

Subtract the first item from the second and you are left with what Theta calls the customer lifetime value (CLV).

Postacquisition value, in turn, breaks down into customer retention (churn), rides per active customer, revenue per ride, and the variable margin on those revenues. If you can estimate these metrics for a specific addressable market, you can forecast the company's future cash flows (after subtracting fixed costs). Those cash flows, discounted back to the present at an appropriate rate, produce an estimate of the company's fair value.

In a two-part series of blog posts on its website (here (https://www.thetaequity.com/lyft-ipo) and here (https://www.thetaequity.com/lyft-ipo-valuation)), Theta applies this framework to Lyft, using data provided in its offering prospectus (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759509/000119312519077391/d633517ds1a.htm) to derive a fair value for the company. If you're considering buying the shares, I strongly urge you to read both posts carefully -- you won't find a better analysis in the public domain.

--and:
Theta's conclusion with regard to Lyft's fair value is a sobering assessment of this overheated offering:

"[O]ur results suggest that Lyft's target valuation is not justified by their fundamentals under any practically realistic future state of the world. Our more optimistic scenario implies a fair valuation of about $7B, while our base case scenario implies a fair valuation of $4.5B."


Ouch! Those figures do not compare well to the $24.3 valuation the company is seeking, which requires some genuine contortions in operational performance...

FWIW, the guys and gals at The Motley Fool site aren't infallible. But over the years I've found them to be right more often than they've been wrong (by about a 2 to 1 margin.)



-jp

.

[reckless]

There is 2-tier voting makeup in Lyft; the founding owners get a majority of the voting rights; the retail public owners gets the shaft.

If anyone can get to a Fox interview from Friday --the day Lyft went public--with Neil Cavuto interviewing Scott Galloway, go watch it!!

Galloway is a NYU professor and a truly real-world intelligent kind of guy.

[AltonKelsey]

In the interest of fairness, I post this update





SFOR was presented here as 'the best stock in the world some time ago. I was skeptical



looks like I was wrong.


https://charting.nasdaq.com/ext/charts.dll?2-1-14-0-0-536-03NA000000SFOR-&SF:1|5-BG=FFFFFF-BT=0-HT=395-

[highnote]

It will get there and through 2,900 a lot sooner than June, highnote, I believe.

Powerful news on the business front today and the market reacted accordingly. I actually think today was a buy signal for a very strong near- and long-term up market.

I am not a charts guy but markets and the economy are cooking and with the rest of the world going nowhere, the USA will be the only place for money to go to.

You were right... 2900 before June.

Now, do you sell in May and go away? Or stay long?

I'm staying long until my models tell me otherwise. S&P would have to drop 4% or more from today's close before I would sell. It hit a new cyclical high today. Last time it was in the 2900s was last October.

[highnote]

You were right... 2900 before June.

Now, do you sell in May and go away? Or stay long?

I'm staying long until my models tell me otherwise. S&P would have to drop 4% or more from today's close before I would sell. It hit a new cyclical high today. Last time it was in the 2900s was last October.

All time high for SP today.

My model gave a buy signal on December 26, 2018 and then an even bigger one on January 8, 2019.

SP was at 2467 on Dec 26. It's up 25% since then.

How long will the party last?

[highnote]

All time high for SP today.

My model gave a buy signal on December 26, 2018 and then an even bigger one on January 8, 2019.

SP was at 2467 on Dec 26. It's up 25% since then.

How long will the party last?

Looks like the party is over. The sell signal trigger was S&P 2828. It is at 2817. That's more than a 4% drop from the most recent peak.

[barn32]

The yield curve just inverted again.

http://i63.tinypic.com/69kdqh.png

[highnote]

The yield curve just inverted again.

http://i63.tinypic.com/69kdqh.png

I just checked bloomberg. They say 3-mo is 2.40 and 10 year is 2.41. Close to inverted, but not quite.

When were your rates last updated?

[barn32]

I just checked bloomberg. They say 3-mo is 2.40 and 10 year is 2.41. Close to inverted, but not quite.

When were your rates last updated?



30 seconds ago. Link.
(https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/)


http://i68.tinypic.com/hug38j.png

[highnote]

What are the bonds used for the benchmark -- 3mo/10yr or 3mo/30yr?

bloomberg now shows 3mo and 10yr both at 2.40

[barn32]

What are the bonds used for the benchmark -- 3mo/10yr or 3mo/30yr?

bloomberg now shows 3mo and 10yr both at 2.403 mo/10yr

[Ocala Mike]

The sell signal was the onset of Trump's full-blown trade war. Remember, though, we're always only one tweet away from a big rally (or another 10% correction).

[barn32]

Tim Knight did a pretty spot on analysis of the trade wars vis-a-vis the markets. Interesting read.

(https://slopeofhope.com/2019/05/like-night-day.html)

[highnote]

I got 3 sell signals yesterday from my model. I am going 33% into cash until this tariff dispute blows over. It is causing a lot of uncertainty which results in volatility. In the long run the market has a lot of headroom, but in the short run there could be a correction. If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices. If it reverses course today and starts to rise I'll still be in a good shape and will just be taking some profits and taking some money off the table.

[AltonKelsey]

very quiet here


guess everyone is watching their SFOR , aka the Greatest Stock In The World holdings



long and strong!

[PaceAdvantage]

very quiet here


guess everyone is watching their SFOR , aka the Greatest Stock In The World holdings



long and strong!What's the motivation? Before I start red carding for repetitiveness, or bullying...:pound:

[lamboguy]

I got 3 sell signals yesterday from my model. I am going 33% into cash until this tariff dispute blows over. It is causing a lot of uncertainty which results in volatility. In the long run the market has a lot of headroom, but in the short run there could be a correction. If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices. If it reverses course today and starts to rise I'll still be in a good shape and will just be taking some profits and taking some money off the table.this market may give you the opportunity to go long at some point soon on its way to 35,000. it may reach 22,000 first though. if right, 22 going to 35 would be a huge move within the next 4 years.

[highnote]

very quiet here


guess everyone is watching their SFOR , aka the Greatest Stock In The World holdings



long and strong!

SP 2828 was a sell signal. I am 50% in cash niw

[AltonKelsey]

dunno, is there some parameter where we can mention this?


if it tripled, would it be ok?



-90% not ?

[highnote]

SP 2828 was a sell signal. I am 50% in cash niw

SP is at 2743 now. Sell signal at 2828 was correct.

SP 2852 is the next buy signal.

[AltonKelsey]

SP is at 2743 now. Sell signal at 2828 was correct.

SP 2852 is the next buy signal.




wow.



thats what, 100 s&p points away.



But you said, "If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices"


How can you wait for a massive rally to happen , and also get back in at bargain prices ?






Maybe you meant 2752. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/UBGX/row2d.gif

[highnote]

wow.



thats what, 100 s&p points away.



But you said, "If it takes a big dip then I'll be on the sideline with cash to jump back in at bargain prices"


How can you wait for a massive rally to happen , and also get back in at bargain prices ?






Maybe you meant 2752. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/UBGX/row2d.gif

Nope. I meant what I wrote. I am on the sidelines with 50% cash in most of my accounts. If SP gets to 2852 it will still be well below its recent high.

To be honest, I use the Value Line Arithmatic Index because it is a little more sensitive than the SP, but SP is correlated with VL and SP is more well-known. So for paceadvantage purposes it is simpler to talk about the SP and its more easily understood.

Additionally, I use other indicators, but the SP and VL give off buy and sell signals most frequently.

Based on the major momentum buy signal I got in December I am still bullish. This trump noise with the tariffs will blow over eventually and the market should resume its upward trajectory, in my opinion.

I captured a lot of value from December until May and hope to do so when the trend reverses. In the meantime, no point in pissing into the wind.

[lamboguy]

Nope. I meant what I wrote. I am on the sidelines with 50% cash in most of my accounts. If SP gets to 2852 it will still be well below its recent high.

To be honest, I use the Value Line Arithmatic Index because it is a little more sensitive than the SP, but SP is correlated with VL and SP is more well-known. So for paceadvantage purposes it is simpler to talk about the SP and its more easily understood.

Additionally, I use other indicators, but the SP and VL give off buy and sell signals most frequently.

Based on the major momentum buy signal I got in December I am still bullish. This trump noise with the tariffs will blow over eventually and the market should resume its upward trajectory, in my opinion.

I captured a lot of value from December until May and hope to do so when the trend reverses. In the meantime, no point in pissing into the wind.

great call, keep up the good work

[highnote]

The sell signal was the onset of Trump's full-blown trade war. Remember, though, we're always only one tweet away from a big rally (or another 10% correction).

Agreed. I wish I could predict what the next tweet will bring. I can't. So I don't. The best I can do is look at my indicators and act accordingly. Sometimes I get whipsawed. If the tariffs disappear the market will likely go higher and a buy signal will appear. I could jump back in and another tweet could send the market lower triggering a sell signal.

There were 6 good months from December to May without a sell signal. Then the indicators flashed sell in May.

In general, my indicators are pretty bearish, but employment seems to be good and interest rates are low. The yield curve is of concern, though.

Overall, I'm just not seeing anything that makes me think the market is going higher in the short term. I don't know if it will go much lower because employment is good and interest rates are low.

My bet is that SP will go lower or remain near where it is before it will go up 4% from its recent low and trigger a buy signal.

[highnote]

great call, keep up the good work

As Ocala Mike said, we're only 1 tweet away from an upward trend or a continuation of the downward trend.

[AltonKelsey]

Yeah, probably better to let the market go up 4-5% before putting that cash to work.



No need to rush things.



Todays massive 55 SPX point rally probably be reversed tomorrow on the next tweet .


good work!

[PaceAdvantage]

wow.



thats what, 100 s&p points away.Not any more

[highnote]

Yeah, probably better to let the market go up 4-5% before putting that cash to work.



No need to rush things.



Todays massive 55 SPX point rally probably be reversed tomorrow on the next tweet .


good work!


Plus the fed could say next week they want to raise rates a quarter point. Down goes the market. Then trump says he is relaxing the tariffs. Up goes the market. Meanwhile, nothing has changed -- just the noise.

That's why Buffett is successful. His favorite length of time to hold a stock is forever. In the long run, nothing trump or the fed says today matters.

[highnote]

Not any more

If SP hits 2852 I will probably jump back in, but also cautious. One negative tweet send the market down 50.

If I buy at 2852 the market would have to fall to 2738 before I sold again.

Getting whipsawed is possible, but usually the trend holds.

[PaceAdvantage]

One negative tweet send the market down 50.And this is somehow different or new, compared to the last couple of years?

[highnote]

And this is somehow different or new, compared to the last couple of years?

It might not be that much different.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just saying, he's been president and tweeter in chief for over two years now...

[highnote]

Just saying, he's been president and tweeter in chief for over two years now...

Yes.

[AltonKelsey]

No question about it, waiting for a 100 point SPX rally was the right thing to do. Circumspect in the extremus



Now, is the checkbook handy, all the folks that bought the bottom are expecting prompt payment :)

[highnote]

SP gave a buy signal based on momentum when it passed 2854. If it closes above 2854 then it's probably OK to buy.

I prefer to use the Value Line Arithmetic Index. The buy signal would be triggered when it reaches 6041 -- 4% above its recent low point. It is currently almost to 6028 -- 13 points from a buy signal.

Since I use the 4% model for my retirement accounts I am in no hurry to buy. I take a longer term view and happy to sit in cash. I try not to lose money in this account.

Some people might want to use a 3% upward move from a recent low to start trading. There are more whipsaws, but you catch moves earlier.

[Saratoga_Mike]

HN - do you use any volume requirements for your buy/sell signals?

[highnote]

Yes. The model based on SP and Value Line is a momentum model, but in addition, I look two more momentum factors -- 1.) the daily ratio of Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks and 2.) the daily ratio of Advancing Volume Stocks to Declining Volume Stocks.

If the 10 day average of (1.) is 2 to 1 or greater that is a huge buy signal. That happened last January and the market increased 20% by April 8. It leveled off for a month before falling in May. This is a rare signal, but it is important.

If (2.) is 9 to 1 or better that is a big buy signal. If the reverse of (2.) is 9 to 1 that is a sell signal. The advancing volume stocks to declining volume stocks had a ratio of 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That was a big buy signal. It followed up with the 2-1 ratio on January 8. The Value Line was 4% above its recent low on January 2. Everything was pointing to a higher market.

I use these 3 momentum factors along with some interest rate and other factors to determine when to get in and out of the market. When I do what the model says to do it usually works. When I think I am right and the model is wrong I am usually wrong.

Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the tape. Sell in May and go away. There is a lot of wisdom in those old Wall Street sayings.

The only reason the market fell recently was because of tariffs. Get rid of the tariffs and the market would be booming. Maybe it was booming too much? Or maybe Trump makes some tweets to cause the market to fall and insiders buy on the dip? There are probably many other reasons. I don't waste time trying to figure out what it all means because the price and volume gives plenty of clues about where the market is going.

[highnote]

VL at 6050. That's a buy signal.

Now... what to buy?

[AltonKelsey]

Absolutely, no reason to rush in at the bottom, thats for gamblers


Now that we are 100 ES points higher in a heartbeat, lets start buying NOW!!!!!

[highnote]

Absolutely, no reason to rush in at the bottom, thats for gamblers


Now that we are 100 ES points higher in a heartbeat, lets start buying NOW!!!!!

I picked up some OAKMX for my wife. Not sure what else to buy. I've been so busy with work that I haven't had time to look for stocks.

[highnote]

VL at 6050. That's a buy signal.

Now... what to buy?

BRK-B is still relatively cheap at 207. I may buy some more of that. It's not likely to be a 10 banger, but it's probably a safe bet in a long-term retirement account.

[ReplayRandall]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-buffett-yardstick-may-be-signaling-the-worst-risk-reward-setup-ever/ar-AACMHx1?ocid=spartanntp

The 'Buffett Yardstick' may be signaling the worst risk-reward setup ever

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) says it’s “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

The “Buffett Yardstick,” as longtime money manager Jesse Felder of the Felder Report calls it, plots the total value of the stock market against the overall size of the economy. What makes it so valuable, he says, is that it’s good at telling investors what to expect from equities going forward.

What’s it telling them now?

“All of this leveraged speculation must at some point be unwound, usually via forced selling during a bear market,” he wrote. “The last two times it came even close to the current level the stock market suffered 50% declines.”

Felder warned that this time around, the pieces are in place for an even bigger drop. “In all, long-term investors are risking roughly a 60% decline to try to capture a 0% rate of return over the coming decade in the stock market, one of the worst risk-to-reward setups in history,” he wrote in a blog post.

[Half Smoke]

Nobody can predict market moves - nobody - not Jessie Felder or anyone else

poker writer David Sklansky called some poker players "freaks" - they start winning and keep on winning from the moment they sit down

in trading there are some "freaks" also - those who make tons of money trading while so many others fail - but their predictions are usually very short term and involve individual stocks not the entire market

the best the most of us can do is ride along with the market's well proven long term upward bias - with quality and a buy and hold strategy of well diversified mutual funds

personally, for me, it's index funds - I only buy - I never sell

there is an exception if I need funds for personal use to avoid paying exorbitant interest

[barn32]

Nobody can predict market moves - nobody - not Jessie Felder or anyone else

http://i63.tinypic.com/x4hd00.png

http://i63.tinypic.com/e8mi9u.pnghttp://i63.tinypic.com/2remotz.png

[reckless]

I believe over 80 per cent of money managers fail to beat the broader market indexes, such as the Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the like.

I understand the article Randall posted but that emphasized beating the general, broader stock markets. Buffett isn't alone in achieving market-beating returns but is one of a select few, for sure. Buffett may (correctly) believe the overall market is expensive but he is regularly buying stock as we speak.

Selective investing of undervalued, individual companies mispriced in the market could provide better long term results than solely buying the general market such as the S&P or Russell.

I emphasize the words selective, undervalued and mispriced stocks, of course.

PS--I know Buffett isn't the subject of Randall's link, Felder is, but he is at the core of the story.

[Half Smoke]

Buffett is now saying that a person would do as well with the S&P index as they would with his Berkshire


from the article:


"Notwithstanding Buffett’s value-hunting prowess and dramatic lifetime outperformance, Berkshire has over the last 10 years underperformed the S&P 500 — the broad market index that tracks the largest stocks in the American economy."



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/buffett-says-investors-would-be-served-equally-well-by-sp-or-berkshire.html

[ReplayRandall]

Berkshire currently has over $112 Billion cash on hand, the most ever held by the company.....There's a huge reason why Buffett and Munger are currently situated like this....Big discounted buying opportunities are in the immediate horizon.

Bottom-line, the recent yield curve inverted Bond Market is about to blow, thus the dominoes(Housing and Stock Markets) will all start to fall....No exact date or month for the trigger. The FED will have few options to stop the events coming, if any.

[thaskalos]

Berkshire currently has over $112 Billion cash on hand, the most ever held by the company.....There's a huge reason why Buffett and Munger are currently situated like this....Big discounted buying opportunities are in the immediate horizon.

Bottom-line, the recent yield curve inverted Bond Market is about to blow, thus the dominoes(Housing and Stock Markets) will all start to fall....No exact date or month for the trigger. The FED will have few options to stop the events coming, if any.

Didn't you say that you would resist the urge to make any more prognostications?

[ReplayRandall]

Didn't you say that you would resist the urge to make any more prognostications?
No exact date or month for the trigger.

Does that look like a prediction?...Don't waste my time.

[thaskalos]

No exact date or month for the trigger.

Does that look like a prediction?...Don't waste my time.

Sorry. In view of your extended vacation from here, I should have been aware of how valuable your time is. :blush:

[barn32]

Sorry. In view of your extended vacation from here, I should have been aware of how valuable your time is. :blush:Touche! :ThmbUp:

[reckless]

http://i63.tinypic.com/x4hd00.png

http://i63.tinypic.com/e8mi9u.pnghttp://i63.tinypic.com/2remotz.png

What's been the performance from 2007 to 2018/19?

[ReplayRandall]

A Morgan Stanley reading on the economy collapses by the most ever

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-morgan-stanley-reading-on-the-economy-collapses-by-the-most-ever/ar-AACQ4nu?ocid=spartanntp

Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index, which captures turning points in the economy, fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record and the lowest level since December 2008 during the financial crisis, according to the firm.

"The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,' economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients. "Fundamental indicators point to a broad softening of activity, but analysts did not widely attribute the weakening to trade policy."

Fears of a possible economic slowdown were raised last week after a much worse than expected jobs report. The economy added just 75,000 jobs in May, according to the Labor Department last Friday. A report on Thursday showed a spike in jobless claims last week. Manufacturing activity last month grew at the slowest pace in two years.

[Half Smoke]

if you tried to list all of the wrong market predictions from supposedly wise, knowledgeable sources, since the value of the Dow was first published in 1896 -



well, by the time you got to the year 1980 you would be very, very tired



you might give up or you might continue on and start listing a few thousand more








it's kind of like the "experts" on ESPN and elsewhere who talk about the NFL
some of them are very insightful - I'm not denying that



they're great at telling you what happened yesterday


but they can't tell you what will happen tomorrow

[AltonKelsey]

I'm sticking with the less well known SFOR index. It's about to go below the major level of .002 . If it can hold there, very bullish for the overall market

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm sticking with the less well known SFOR index. It's about to go below the major level of .002 . If it can hold there, very bullish for the overall market

Obsess much?

[AltonKelsey]

Obsess much?


Only about "the best stock in the world " Damn Straight!

[reckless]

Over the years I've recommended individual stocks since that's my main game.

I have recommended on here in prior posts two companies that I said were very undervalued and great long-term holdings, Fidelity National Finance and Stewart Title Insurance. Both are in the title insurance and real estate processing business. (A wonderfully great and 'safe' business to be in, with near zero risk which produce piles of cash and earnings compounding at great rates.)

So, who wants to make about 20 per cent return in about 4-5 weeks or less??

ASAP buy Stewart Title, symbol STC.

It sells for $41.50 or so as I type this and Fidelity (FNF) has a take-over price of about $50, a deal set to close in less than a month. There's cash and stock involved so some may not want to play along being short-term oriented and options traders.

You should because FNF is getting STC at a discount to intrinsic value and is one of the 1-2 largest title insurance players in the country.

Good luck.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Over the years I've recommended individual stocks since that's my main game.

I have recommended on here in prior posts two companies that I said were very undervalued and great long-term holdings, Fidelity National Finance and Stewart Title Insurance. Both are in the title insurance and real estate processing business. (A wonderfully great and 'safe' business to be in, with near zero risk which produce piles of cash and earnings compounding at great rates.)

So, who wants to make about 20 per cent return in about 4-5 weeks or less??

ASAP buy Stewart Title, symbol STC.

It sells for $41.50 or so as I type this and Fidelity (FNF) has a take-over price of about $50, a deal set to close in less than a month. There's cash and stock involved so some may not want to play along being short-term oriented and options traders.

You should because FNF is getting STC at a discount to intrinsic value and is one of the 1-2 largest title insurance players in the country.

Good luck.

The deal could close as late as mid-Sept (see 8k from a week or so ago). There was also a second request from the FTC on the deal. Given the second request, there's a chance the combined companies could be forced to divest parts of the biz, which would result a downward adjustment to the purchase price (see proxy docs). It probably all works out, but if it were as riskless as you've outlined, the arbs would not allow such a wide gap, imo.

[PaceAdvantage]

Obsess much?Nah, just another board dick...or is it bored dick? Not sure.

[reckless]

The deal could close as late as mid-Sept (see 8k from a week or so ago). There was also a second request from the FTC on the deal. Given the second request, there's a chance the combined companies could be forced to divest parts of the biz, which would result a downward adjustment to the purchase price (see proxy docs). It probably all works out, but if it were as riskless as you've outlined, the arbs would not allow such a wide gap, imo.

Thanks Mike for the update. I kept mum on this ever since the deal was first announced. I knew some states have tried to put roadblocks up but I thought that was just about over.

When I saw that there was a 'quick' 20 percent to be made, I thought I'd share that with my friends on PA.

I cannot believe there will be much divestiture of either company because the industry and these companies are quite small.

The arbs are way smarter than I am but then I have had nearly 20 companies I've owned over the years that were taken over. I'll concede them their brains but that's about it.

I've held stock in both companies for ages, so I don't care how it eventually plays out in a way. I'm keeping the stock forever and ever...

[AltonKelsey]

Nah, just another board dick...or is it bored dick? Not sure.


And I always speak so highly of YOU :headbanger:




https://cdn1.imggmi.com/uploads/2019/6/20/0aad87b5c4b559ba74efa3798201f68c-prev.jpg (https://imggmi.com/full/2019/6/20/0aad87b5c4b559ba74efa3798201f68c-full.jpg.html) upload (https://imggmi.com)

[ReplayRandall]

So the FED says no rate change up or down today.....Interesting.

Look WTF just happened to GOLD $1385, 6 year high.....Concerning.

Fed funds at 2.37, while the 10 year yield drops to 1.97!.....Inversion worsen rapidly.

Doesn't this look like the same script Ben Bernanke was following right before it all imploded?

[plainolebill]

Seems like there's a lot of moving parts here, Draghi and the Euro banks may be a much bigger problem than the US. When Powell said no rate cut - I'm thinking a lot of cash flowed from Europe to the 10 year and quite probably gold.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Over the years I've recommended individual stocks since that's my main game.

I have recommended on here in prior posts two companies that I said were very undervalued and great long-term holdings, Fidelity National Finance and Stewart Title Insurance. Both are in the title insurance and real estate processing business. (A wonderfully great and 'safe' business to be in, with near zero risk which produce piles of cash and earnings compounding at great rates.)

So, who wants to make about 20 per cent return in about 4-5 weeks or less??

ASAP buy Stewart Title, symbol STC.

It sells for $41.50 or so as I type this and Fidelity (FNF) has a take-over price of about $50, a deal set to close in less than a month. There's cash and stock involved so some may not want to play along being short-term oriented and options traders.

You should because FNF is getting STC at a discount to intrinsic value and is one of the 1-2 largest title insurance players in the country.

Good luck.

The top 4 title insurance players hold about 85% share, which probably explains why it's such an attractive biz. If FNF and STC merge, I believe their share would total around 45% That may be giving the FTC pause. I assume the FTC second review is focused on regional market share concentration issues (if the number is 45% overall, I suspect there are markets well north of that). Regardless, even with divestitures, the combined entities would represent an attractive biz, imo.

Your merger stats remind me of a Bloomberg article from last year. In rough terms, there were 7,500 public companies (ex OTC/pink sheets) in 1995. That number now stands around 4,000. Tons of M&A and fewer IPOs vs. pre-2000.

[PaceAdvantage]

And I always speak so highly of YOU :headbanger:You have to admit, you've been king asshole regarding this topic.

I've pointed it out nicely a few times in the past, but now we're up to attempt #135 to beat this dead horse...thus...you get more colorful responses from me each and every time.

Not too hard to figure out.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Seems like there's a lot of moving parts here, Draghi and the Euro banks may be a much bigger problem than the US. When Powell said no rate cut - I'm thinking a lot of cash flowed from Europe to the 10 year and quite probably gold.

The Euro has actually strengthened since yesterday morning, especially post Fed announcement.

[PaceAdvantage]

So the FED says no rate change up or down today.....Interesting.

Look WTF just happened to GOLD $1385, 6 year high.....Concerning.

Fed funds at 2.37, while the 10 year yield drops to 1.97!.....Inversion worsen rapidly.

Doesn't this look like the same script Ben Bernanke was following right before it all imploded?They have to figure out SOME way to make sure King Donald doesn't get reelected...insurance plan #1 hasn't panned out despite all their best efforts.

What, you thought that was going to be the end of it? :pound:

A nice little market crash + recession will ensure without a single doubt he wouldn't win reelection, and would probably guarantee he doesn't even run if they can bring it about early enough in the cycle.

Here come the tin-foil-hat images....as GWB once said, BRING 'EM ON.

[Saratoga_Mike]

So the FED says no rate change up or down today.....Interesting.

Look WTF just happened to GOLD $1385, 6 year high.....Concerning.

Fed funds at 2.37, while the 10 year yield drops to 1.97!.....Inversion worsen rapidly.

Doesn't this look like the same script Ben Bernanke was following right before it all imploded?

The gold chart looks outstanding.

Under BB, the explosive move in gold was a flight to safety. I suspect gold's current move is a store-of-value play (i.e., you can't print more gold).

Keep in mind the yield curve (10s less 2s) inverted in early 2006, after which the S&P 500 moved up an additional 18% or so.

[Saratoga_Mike]

They have to figure out SOME way to make sure King Donald doesn't get reelected...insurance plan #1 hasn't panned out despite all their best efforts.

What, you thought that was going to be the end of it? :pound:

A nice little market crash + recession will ensure without a single doubt he wouldn't win reelection, and would probably guarantee he doesn't even run if they can bring it about early enough in the cycle.

Here come the tin-foil-hat images....as GWB once said, BRING 'EM ON.

This wasn't the message from Powell at yesterday's press conference, imo. He's very concerned about the global economy/trade issues and will act soon, barring some unforeseen positive exogenous factor.

[reckless]

The gold chart looks outstanding.

Under BB, the explosive move in gold was a flight to safety. I suspect gold's current move is a store-of-value play (i.e., you can't print more gold).

Keep in mind the yield curve (10s less 2s) inverted in early 2006, after which the S&P 500 moved up an additional 18% or so.

There's an old joke out there that the inverted yield curve has predicted 15 of the last four recessions. :)

[ReplayRandall]

There's an old joke out there that the inverted yield curve has predicted 15 of the last four recessions. :)
There's always a joke out there that our economy is red hot....:pound::pound:

[Saratoga_Mike]

There's an old joke out there that the inverted yield curve has predicted 15 of the last four recessions. :)

It actually has an excellent track record, but the recession isn't always instantaneous.

[AltonKelsey]

You have to admit, you've been king asshole regarding this topic.

I've pointed it out nicely a few times in the past, but now we're up to attempt #135 to beat this dead horse...thus...you get more colorful responses from me each and every time.

Not too hard to figure out.




I'm not sure I qualify as an asshole, unless I have company.



This pink sheet nonsense was touted as the BEST STOCK on the boards , using multiple criteria.



I balked at that analysis. Unless you were very nimble and traded in and out at the exact right times , you got blown away.



This while the overall market has RIPPED!!!!


We also had someone claim that a buy signal was 5% away and nothing should be bought before then . Let the price get away from you , THEN buy!



10 days later .....





so if I'm an ahole , I have good company here.

[highnote]

We also had someone claim that a buy signal was 5% away and nothing should be bought before then . Let the price get away from you , THEN buy!


Not sure if you're referring to someone's post about a particular stock or if you're posting about my post about stock market timing/momentum indicators.

In case you were referring to me, I want to clarify my point...

My post was actually about the buy signal being a 4% rise from a recent bottom -- assuming that at some point the market had fallen 4% from a previous top.

This is a Martin Zweig indicator. He did pretty well for himself and I have had good results using his indicators...

I use the value line index.

So for example, let's say you're just starting out as an investor, the market has been weak, and the index is at 100. If the indicator rises 4% to 104 a buy signal would be triggered. Since 104 is the new high, you would go long the market and stay long until a sell signal is triggered. A sell signal would be triggered if the index fell 4% to 99.84.

The beauty of this indicator is that you can update it every Friday afternoon at the market close and be fairly in touch with the market's direction.

You'll get similar results using the S&P, but it is not quite as sensitive as the Value Line. You can also use it with individual stocks. I have a feeling Jesse Livermore probably used something along the lines of a 4% model. Zweig favorably mentioned Livermore's trading methods in his book.

As I mentioned before, you might get whipsawed on occasion as this headline from today states:

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/u-stocks-fall-trumps-response-184159973.html

[AltonKelsey]

highnote, the stock has nothing to do with you



As for waiting for a massive bounce before stepping in, I think this might have been good advice 20 or 30 years ago , not now.



Maybe this backtests well, maybe not, but I'd feel a bit awkward sitting around rooting for the S&P to move 100 points higher so I can hit the buy key :kiss:

[highnote]

As for waiting for a massive bounce before stepping in, I think this might have been good advice 20 or 30 years ago , not now.

Maybe this backtests well, maybe not, but I'd feel a bit awkward sitting around rooting for the S&P to move 100 points higher so I can hit the buy key :kiss:

The Value Line index is slightly more volatile than the SP so a 4% move happens pretty often. Zweig wrote that 3% might be more appropriate for some investors. He also wrote of several other indicators in his book and he also said he did not give away all his indicators because he used them in his fund for his clients.

Professionals who are in tune with the market can surely do better. I am a casual investor and the model has worked well for me, but I am sure there are better models.

In case you're interested, here is a link to a copy of the paper I co-wrote with Bill Ziemba (a.k.a. Dr. Z) about using the Zweig system in the "modern era".

https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/tzPaxpunhSaXTTRjDAIZ/full

[ReplayRandall]

In case you're interested, here is a link to a copy of the paper I co-wrote with Bill Ziemba (a.k.a. Dr. Z) about using the Zweig system in the "modern era".

https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/tzPaxpunhSaXTTRjDAIZ/full
Zweig suggests three crucial conditions for a bear market:

1. Extreme deflation. This is not present in 2016.

2. PE ratios of 18 or above.The current PE of the S&P is around 22, which Zweig says is bearish.However, he says the exception is when profits are low (causing high PEs) because of a business downturn. This is the case in 2016 with poor earnings.

3. Inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve last occurred in early August of 2008. It is not inverted in 2016.

What year did we last have "extreme deflation"?.....Doesn't exist, especially extreme.

Bear market Time is here.

[highnote]

What year did we last have "extreme deflation"?.....Doesn't exist, especially extreme.

Bear market Time is here.

One reason the FED did Quantitative Easing on a mass scale starting back around 2009 is because they were terrified of a great depression caused by extreme deflation. Money printing was supposed to cause inflation -- or at least prevent deflation.

I suppose it's a good idea to have a little precious metal in your portfolio in case of extreme inflation or deflation.

[AltonKelsey]

In case you're interested, here is a link to a copy of the paper I co-wrote with Bill Ziemba (a.k.a. Dr. Z) about using the Zweig system in the "modern era".

https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/tzPaxpunhSaXTTRjDAIZ/full




I certainly know who Marty Zweig was , but I'm not a big systems guy , so never got interested in the workings of his 4% method.



Got up to some speed on it via the miracle of the internet . This paper is quite interesting and has an actual back test thru 2015 or so , which seems to confirms my theory (underperform since the glory days) . No idea how its done since 2015 (murphy's law , probably great, just to make me look bad)



The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf (https://kieger.com/fileadmin/News/The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf)




I was looking for a recent performance study, but strangely, quite hard to come by. Do you have the numbers ?



I do respect Zweigs notion that you don't stand there like a patsy when it hits the fan.




PS Your paper with Ziemba is nicely done.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not sure I qualify as an asshole, unless I have company. Come on! You know what you're doing each and every time you bring that stupid penny stock up.

Doesn't the phrase "WE GET IT ALREADY" mean anything to you?

No? That's why you're an AH.

[highnote]

Thanks for the link to the study. I have not done one. I just use it, but not as a hard and fast rule. There have been times it has dipped below 4%, but I stood pat (the '87 crash for example. I was pretty sure that was a temporary blip. But in the summer of '07 I went 100% into cash because of the huge daily swings. That's the sign of a crash. And it crashed big.) I sold maybe a third to a half on this most recent drop even though I knew the economy, overall, is strong. I just didn't know how long the tariffs would be a factor. So I lost a little in the whipsaw, but it was cheap insurance.

Zweig recommends using his Super Model. I pay more attention to that.

His strongest indicator is the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks over a 10 day period, but this indicator is not part of the Super Model. When the ratio is 2 to 1 or higher it is a major buy signal. The 2 to 1 ratio happened earlier this year and Zweig showed that the market goes up at lest 15 percent on average in the proceeding 6 months, which it has.

The Super Model is actually neutral right now. So I'm basically long, but with some cash on the side.

So I guess the way I invest is like handicapping -- part art, part science, and part fortune teller. Interpreting the indicators is like reading tea leaves. :D

I certainly know who Marty Zweig was , but I'm not a big systems guy , so never got interested in the workings of his 4% method.



Got up to some speed on it via the miracle of the internet . This paper is quite interesting and has an actual back test thru 2015 or so , which seems to confirms my theory (underperform since the glory days) . No idea how its done since 2015 (murphy's law , probably great, just to make me look bad)



The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf (https://kieger.com/fileadmin/News/The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf)




I was looking for a recent performance study, but strangely, quite hard to come by. Do you have the numbers ?



I do respect Zweigs notion that you don't stand there like a patsy when it hits the fan.




PS Your paper with Ziemba is nicely done.

[reckless]

Is Jason Zweig any relation to Marty Zweig, highnote?

I have never read of any reference to this. Jason has been a well known figure in business journalism for many yeara, and tje lste Marty was a legendary long time investor.

Thanks.

[highnote]

Is Jason Zweig any relation to Marty Zweig, highnote?

I have never read of any reference to this. Jason has been a well known figure in business journalism for many yeara, and tje lste Marty was a legendary long time investor.

Thanks.

I have wondered the same thing. I think he probably is not.

[Saratoga_Mike]

They are NOT related.

[highnote]

Also, the link to the study you sent about the 4% rule is applied to the SP500. The original 4% model was used on the Value Line Arithmetic Index. Zweig writes that if you want more trades use a 3% model and if you want fewer trades use a 5% or 6% model.

He also writes that the VL is more volatile than the SP and other major markets. Because of the higher volatility it works better. The VL will rise more in bull markets and will fall further in bear markets.

I certainly know who Marty Zweig was , but I'm not a big systems guy , so never got interested in the workings of his 4% method.



Got up to some speed on it via the miracle of the internet . This paper is quite interesting and has an actual back test thru 2015 or so , which seems to confirms my theory (underperform since the glory days) . No idea how its done since 2015 (murphy's law , probably great, just to make me look bad)



The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf (https://kieger.com/fileadmin/News/The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf)




I was looking for a recent performance study, but strangely, quite hard to come by. Do you have the numbers ?



I do respect Zweigs notion that you don't stand there like a patsy when it hits the fan.




PS Your paper with Ziemba is nicely done.

[lamboguy]

highnote, the stock has nothing to do with you



As for waiting for a massive bounce before stepping in, I think this might have been good advice 20 or 30 years ago , not now.



Maybe this backtests well, maybe not, but I'd feel a bit awkward sitting around rooting for the S&P to move 100 points higher so I can hit the buy key :kiss:it really doesn't bother me that you are making me look foolish. i posted a penny stock on the way to more than tripling in value, called it the greatest stock ever, which it was while it was going up, and then the sucker crashed like so many before it. i personally sold out of the stock when i doubled may money, turns out i sold to soon, in 3 days. in most peoples world that is pretty dam good trade. but you chose to relive something that happened 3 years ago.

you can keep on posting about this nonsense as long as it makes you happy. i promise you it doesn't affect anyone's life on this board or myself. if that is what your life is all about, keep on going.

[AltonKelsey]

called it the greatest stock ever, which it was while it was going up,


See , thats the problem.



You misled people into thinking this was a good trade when it was just a wild gamble.



There are 100's of these every day. I prefer not to lead folks down the primrose path. But thats just me





As for PA , takes one to know one ! :p

[lamboguy]

See , thats the problem.



You misled people into thinking this was a good trade when it was just a wild gamble.



There are 100's of these every day. I prefer not to lead folks down the primrose path. But thats just me





As for PA , takes one to know one ! :pnow why didn't you just say i misled people a year ago instead of carrying on like you have? there have been plenty of other great company's like Polaroid, Digital Equipment, Lucent Technoligies, Pan American Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Trans World Airlines and many others that were considered by most to be high quality company's that are all gone but not forgotten.

listen my good pal, if you think i misled you, please accept my deepest apologies and move on with your life.

good luck

[highnote]

I predicted based on the indicators I use that the SP500 would be at 2931 by June 15 -- a 15% rise over 6 months. It closed at a new high of 2954 on Thursday, June 20 -- up over 15% in the past 5 months months. So that was a pretty good estimate based on the December 26, 2018 close.

I will stay long for the foreseeable future, but will remain cautious -- about 75% in stocks and 25% in cash because there are other indicators that are not as bullish and the big indicator on December 26 may have run its course.


I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.

Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.

Last time I made this prediction I got the direction right, but it took a little longer than 6 months to hit the target.

The cyclical low of the S&P was 2351 back on December 24, 2018. If it increased by 4% from that low to 2445, that would be a buy signal. It rose 4% by December 26. That signals a lot of buying momentum.

So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.

The following indicator is why I am so bullish:

On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.

There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.

The last time the Adv/Dec vol ratio was greater than 9-1 was on January 29, 2016. July 2016. Before that it was October 5, 2015. There were a bunch of 9-1's back in late 2008 when the market was volatile. There were also a bunch of 1-9's which signaled a lot of selling. The market didn't know which way to go.

Then on March 23, 2009 the Adv vol to Dec vol ratio hit 48-1! The bull market was in full swing at that point.

The ratio was 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That's only half as strong as March of 2019, but it is the strongest and only one since election day November 7, 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would be the president.

Since Trump got elected there have been 6 or 7 days where the Declining volume exceeded the Advancing volume by a ratio of 9 to 1. This is not meant to be a political thread, but only to show that there was a lot of uncertainty during Trump's first two years in office. Not all of the uncertainty was due to him, but, nevertheless, it happened during his tenure.

However, it looks like that uncertainty has been priced into the market and now the market should do well over the next 6 months.

[ReplayRandall]

Did you see on Friday that the US Manufacturing index just came in at a NINE YEAR LOW! What happened?..:rolleyes:...Oh, and Gold is currently trading at $1409 as I post this. The next level of resistance will be at $1450.

However, the Stock Market will probably continue higher through the end of the 2nd quarter June 30th, propped up with the expectation of a July rate cut....We'll see.

Trump of course will continue to pat himself on the back for the Stock Market rise, making all the mindless minions think that the economy is going gangbusters, even though stocks have returned just 2% over the last 18 months.....

[PaceAdvantage]

Did you see on Friday that the US Manufacturing index just came in at a NINE YEAR LOW! What happened?..:rolleyes:...Oh, and Gold is currently trading at $1409 as I post this. The next level of resistance will be at $1450.

However, the Stock Market will probably continue higher through the end of the 2nd quarter June 30th, propped up with the expectation of a July rate cut....We'll see.

Trump of course will continue to pat himself on the back for the Stock Market rise, making all the mindless minions think that the economy is going gangbusters, even though stocks have returned just 2% over the last 18 months.....Never pegged you for a wind blower...who knew?

[PaceAdvantage]

See , thats the problem.



You misled people into thinking this was a good trade when it was just a wild gamble.



There are 100's of these every day. I prefer not to lead folks down the primrose path. But thats just me





As for PA , takes one to know one ! :pAK...the defender of idiot penny stock traders everywhere! :jump::jump::jump:

Thanks for doing the valuable public service that you do.

Where would we be without you?

[Secondbest]

Did you see on Friday that the US Manufacturing index just came in at a NINE YEAR LOW! What happened?..:rolleyes:...Oh, and Gold is currently trading at $1409 as I post this. The next level of resistance will be at $1450.

However, the Stock Market will probably continue higher through the end of the 2nd quarter June 30th, propped up with the expectation of a July rate cut....We'll see.

Trump of course will continue to pat himself on the back for the Stock Market rise, making all the mindless minions think that the economy is going gangbusters, even though stocks have returned just 2% over the last 18 months.....

First Quarter GDP was up 3.1%. Don't mistake the stock market for the economy as a whole.

[Secondbest]

The stock market of course is a function of the economy. But it's not a perfect predictor. An old saying is the market has predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions.

[AltonKelsey]

AK...the defender of idiot penny stock traders everywhere! :jump::jump::jump:

Thanks for doing the valuable public service that you do.

Where would we be without you?




Same place you are now.



My assistance does not predict anyone will benefit.



In fact, I'm sure few do, as stupid is epidemic.



But thanks for asking .

[PaceAdvantage]

S&P new all-time high? Not quite I guess.but close....Interesting...

[highnote]

S&P new all-time high? Not quite I guess.but close....Interesting...

The trend is your friend. It has been a good run over the past 7 months

[ReplayRandall]

Interesting: Head of Deutsche Bank's Investment Division Resigned Today

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank's <DBKGn.DE> investment banking chief Garth Ritchie is stepping down, the bank said on Friday. The move, long speculated, comes as Deutsche prepares a broad multi-billion dollar overhaul that will see big cuts to the investment banking division.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-banks-investment-bank-chief-123458169.html

As you may know, Deutsche Bank is the one financial institution that never fully recovered from the market collapse of 2008. There is some speculation of fraud/ or gross mismanagement -- and if that is the case, it would need to have gone on for more than a decade. It's also said that if DB goes bankrupt, it would take down the entire economy of Germany. Germany does not have the capital to bail out DB.

[highnote]

Germany should let the capitalist market take over and run its course -- and not do what the U.S. did and apply socialism to the financial institutions that were on the verge of collapse.

There would have been short term pain, but in the long run we'd all be better off with new financial institutions built on a solid foundation.

Why is socialism ok for big companies, but not for little companies?

I'm not a big fan of Bernie Sanders, but his op ed piece in the Wall Street Journal raises some interesting points.

Big banks got billions in bail out money and trillions in loans.

Meanwhile, the little guy filed bankruptcy on the house that the big banks lent him money on with a liar loan.

I have no sympathy for large corporations that cannot manage their affairs. I'm expected to manage mine. With all their available resources including brain power, I expect them to manage theirs.

[lamboguy]

Germany should let the capitalist market take over and run its course -- and not do what the U.S. did and apply socialism to the financial institutions that were on the verge of collapse.

There would have been short term pain, but in the long run we'd all be better off with new financial institutions built on a solid foundation.

Why is socialism ok for big companies, but not for little companies?

I'm not a big fan of Bernie Sanders, but his op ed piece in the Wall Street Journal raises some interesting points.

Big banks got billions in bail out money and trillions in loans.

Meanwhile, the little guy filed bankruptcy on the house that the big banks lent him money on with a liar loan.

I have no sympathy for large corporations that cannot manage their affairs. I'm expected to manage mine. With all their available resources including brain power, I expect them to manage theirs.the bailouts are nothing compared to what the financial institutions get in day to day welfare with the fractional banking system. everyone of us are paying the banks to make big money and still go bad. our countries financial system cannot last with fractional banking.

when Trump first started running for president, i asked him what he thought of fractional banking. he said if he got elected he would do away with it. he might be waiting to become a lame duck president to do this. if he does do it, it will be his biggest accomplishment because flat out, Republicans want no part of getting rid of fractional banking.

[ReplayRandall]

Look for the Dow to be down by 400 at close Monday....Deutsche Bank's the Catalyst

World news now:

Lira Crashes After Erdogan Unexpectedly Fires Turkey's Central Bank Governor

Just as glimmers of hope were starting to emerge that Turkey may finally crawl its way out of the deep hole it dug for itself last summer… and Erdogan happens.

The Turkish Lira has opened in early trading on 07-08, crashing over 16 handles…

So what will Erdogan do to support the Lira this time? Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg's Mideast economist pointed out:

“If Erdogan’s aim was to get lower interest rates, then the decision to replace the governor could backfire. Now there’s an additional credibility constraint, with financial markets certain to scrutinize the motivation and magnitude of any easing.”

More News:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-07/morgan-stanley-we-are-putting-our-money-where-our-mouth-and-downgrading-global

Morgan Stanley: "We Are Putting Our Money Where Our Mouth Is And Downgrading Global Stocks To Sell"

By Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley

Over recent weeks, you’ve heard us discussing why we think investors should fade the optimism from the recent G20. Why we think bad data should be feared rather than cheered because it will bring more central bank easing. Why we think the market is too optimistic on 2019 earnings and is underestimating the pressure from inventories, labour costs and trade uncertainty.

The time has come to put our money where our mouth is. In light of these concerns and others, we are downgrading our allocation to global equities from equal-weight to underweight.

The most straightforward reason for this shift is simple – we project poor returns: Over the next 12 months, there is now just 1% average upside to Morgan Stanley’s price targets for the S&P 500, MSCI Europe, MSCI EM and Topix Japan (including dividends and equally weighted). If we ignore those targets and estimate returns for those same regions based on current valuations, adjusting for whether returns tend to be better or worse given current economic data, the upside is very similar (3%). There comes a point for every analyst where you need to change your forecast or change your view. We’re doing the latter.

[highnote]

SP over 3,000 with interest rate cut on the horizon.

Low interest rates came about because of fears of deflation and a depression following the 2009 financial crises. Next, low interest rates caused fear that there would be inflation. Inflation hasn't been a problem for the past 10 years that we've had low interest rates.

Unless of course, you’ve tried to buy a house in San Francisco, a stock market index fund, or a college education.

In reality low interest rates are causing the same kind of economic pain as high energy prices.

Federal Reserve policies have actually worsened wealth inequality by causing inflation in the prices of financial assets. If you were wealthy and owned them, great. If you're poor and would like to buy them, not great.

Conservatives used to worry about dovish Democrats taking over the Fed and cutting interest rates and bringing back the inflation of the 70s. Now the Republicans are the ones keeping interest rates low. Are they still concerned that deflation will cause a depression and therefore rates must be kept low until there is inflation?

As I said above, there is inflation in certain housing markets, stock index funds, and college tuition.

What happens next?

[reckless]

SP over 3,000 with interest rate cut on the horizon.

Low interest rates came about because of fears of deflation and a depression following the 2009 financial crises. Next, low interest rates caused fear that there would be inflation. Inflation hasn't been a problem for the past 10 years that we've had low interest rates.

Unless of course, you’ve tried to buy a house in San Francisco, a stock market index fund, or a college education.

In reality low interest rates are causing the same kind of economic pain as high energy prices.

Federal Reserve policies have actually worsened wealth inequality by causing inflation in the prices of financial assets. If you were wealthy and owned them, great. If you're poor and would like to buy them, not great.

Conservatives used to worry about dovish Democrats taking over the Fed and cutting interest rates and bringing back the inflation of the 70s. Now the Republicans are the ones keeping interest rates low. Are they still concerned that deflation will cause a depression and therefore rates must be kept low until there is inflation?

As I said above, there is inflation in certain housing markets, stock index funds, and college tuition.

What happens next?

The bull market will continue in a upward trend as growth in the US economy will continue upward for a long while to come. The stock market will continue upward too, into the early summer of 2020.

The business 'journalism' chatter I've personally heard in recent weeks: growth is rapidly slowing, the inverted yield curve signals recession (pure fantasy), the tax cuts were ineffective and the sugar high from them is now ending. Trump must end tariffs now, Trump needs to make a deal with China now, and Trump must also stop tweeting (of course). Now!!

All this ignorance, basic stupidity and veiled partisan politics should be totally ignored.

With 10 year money at about 2.12 per cent ... with annual GDP growth at 3.0+ per cent ... with wages rising over 3 per cent ... with repatriation just kicking in ... with unemployment rates at 50-year and all-time low levels, there's no recession in site. Plus with the rest of the world primarily dead, economically speaking, the US markets are poised for another huge move from here.

There are great individual US companies that pay a 3.0+ per cent dividend and higher; companies that have grown free cash flow in double digits; have grown earnings and sales, and earn a juicy return on invested capital of 10-15 per cent plus ... and all sell at a reasonable 15-20 PE and less.

I wasn't joking nor guessing when I posted in early Nov. 2016 that we were in a generational buying opportunity in stocks. That was about 10 trillion dollars ago and it is still very far from over.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Thanks Mike for the update. I kept mum on this ever since the deal was first announced. I knew some states have tried to put roadblocks up but I thought that was just about over.


Follow-up: NY state said no to the first application, and it now appears the FTC may be taking a more aggressive posture against M&A. Quad walking from LSC was an important sign, imo.

[reckless]

Follow-up: NY state said no to the first application, and it now appears the FTC may be taking a more aggressive posture against M&A. Quad walking from LSC was an important sign, imo.

I've owned both companies for many years years so I stupidly didn't keep up on the news like I should have. I was getting a good price for Stewart, and I also love FNF, so this merger worked for me. A no merger works for me too.

Maybe when the TV business media stops talking about Tesla or the Cloud, and mentions the deal is off, there might be a selloff of STC and maybe FNF too.

I'll buy more of each if the price gets tempting. I think it will because the market almost always over does it.

Thanks for the update.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I've owned both companies for many years years so I stupidly didn't keep up on the news like I should have. I was getting a good price for Stewart, and I also love FNF, so this merger worked for me. A no merger works for me too.

Maybe when the TV business media stops talking about Tesla or the Cloud, and mentions the deal is off, there might be a selloff of STC and maybe FNF too.

I'll buy more of each if the price gets tempting. I think it will because the market almost always over does it.

Thanks for the update.

On a potentially positive note, the DOJ has approved the Sprint/TMobile deal, with some divesture requirements (as expected). We'll see what happens with STC -- FNF's recent comments seem less committal.

[highnote]

With the August 1st interest rate cut my model is giving a BUY signal.

Monetary policy is favorable given low interest rates and reasonable consumer credit levels. Stock market momentum is pushing higher.

One concern is Trump's tariffs. Hopefully, the tariffs will be temporary. Another is the inverted yield curve of the 3mo and 10yr T-bill. However, the 30yr and 6mo and 20yr and 3mo are not inverted.

Other economic signs look good.

I'm long, but being cautious because of the tariffs.

[AltonKelsey]

I'm monitoring this thread for the timely SELL alert



I hate giving back more than 20% of my account value , 19 I can live with

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm monitoring this thread for the timely SELL alert

I hate giving back more than 20% of my account value , 19 I can live with

Insightful. Thank you.

[highnote]

Also the inverted yield curve is a concern. The rate cut actually caused it to become steeper. I doubt that was what the fed was hoping for.

[donmat]

Instead of relying on a single SELL signal I've been using Adaptive Asset Allocation. Rank the top 1 or 2 asset classes based on momentum each month and invest in them. Usually beats the S+P 500 but this year is under performing.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm monitoring this thread for the timely SELL alert



I hate giving back more than 20% of my account value , 19 I can live withSell everything now and never get back in again.

Problems solved.

[highnote]

Instead of relying on a single SELL signal I've been using Adaptive Asset Allocation. Rank the top 1 or 2 asset classes based on momentum each month and invest in them. Usually beats the S+P 500 but this year is under performing.

The model I use has three monetary factors and one momentum factor plus I use a few more. The SP has fallen 4% from its peak which is negative momentum and is a sell signal. However, in this case it is not enough of a signal that indicates going 100% into cash. I have cash on the side and have been waiting for a pullback so I can buy. This might be a good time to buy. I will wait and see how it shakes out. The economy looks good overall. Interest rates are low. A lot of money will be flowing into the market. Buffett is sitting on 122 billion in cash. He will put this to use at some point.

[ReplayRandall]

Buffett is sitting on 122 billion in cash. He will put this to use at some point.
He's waiting for a much bigger drop than you're anticipating, that's for sure...:pound::pound:

[highnote]

He's waiting for a much bigger drop than you're anticipating, that's for sure...:pound::pound:

Maybe. I assume he would buy a good value regardless of the level of the sp

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sell everything now and never get back in again.

Problems solved.

And rob us of his great wit?

[ReplayRandall]

Dow -850.....Just a drop in the bucket. The real Storm hasn't even arrived yet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ben up...ben down....who cares.

The leftists only post when it drops...when it goes back up, they never mention it...has happened a couple of times during Trump...it's hilarious to watch.

If the market goes back up from here at some point, they'll never say a word...they'll only post on big down days, as if it means something.

[highnote]

Dow -850.....Just a drop in the bucket. The real Storm hasn't even arrived yet.

This is good. The market hit all time highs recently. A pull back should make for some buying opportunities.

My gold/silver mining stocks are up 5% today.

Ray Dalio gave good advice about building what he calls a four season portfolio. If one part is down , chances are another will be up. It is a good way to build long term but you won't get rich as quickly as buying 10 banger high tech stock.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Dramatic change in rate expectations now vs early last week. The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of rates (fed funds) being 100 bps lower by the end of this year. Gold seems to agree and expects even more.

[highnote]

Dramatic change in rate expectations now vs early last week. The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of rates (fed funds) being 100 bps lower by the end of this year. Gold seems to agree and expects even more.

I read or heard the bond or futures market was pricing in a 90% likelihood of lower rates. I forget how many basis points. But the point is rates are probably going lower. Bad for savers. Good for home buyers.