Stock Market Prediction

[lamboguy]

just in case anyone here bought into this story, we have only just begun. this thing got some legs to it.


this is absolutely a real company with a real product that is desperately needed now.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down less than 1% today with very light volume for the day. time will tell on this.

[reckless]

The GOP, led by village idiots Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy and Reince Priebus, are doing their very best to put the kabosh on Donald Trump, the US economy and stock market rally.

So, I made some sales of long-held stock positions that had a very nice runup of late, strictly to rise some cash for the expected correction. Little did I know they'd be a reversal today (Wed.), which I find very telling, imo.

[lamboguy]

the toughest part of gambling in the stock market is when to buy and when to sell. for me i try to make my choices consistent when selling. i look for different relationships in volumes of equity's and markets. when i see volume come in at the highs and the stock goes down i sell and ask questions later. i call that "volume off the top".

this method has worked for me in most cases except in 2011 with the gold market. i was watching the gold mining stocks come down with volume off the top but didn't see it in the gold futures market. i had never paid attention to the gold etf's which did have volume back then. gold went south from $1900 down to $1050 5 years later. at $1050 i saw plenty of volume but the price no longer went down. this was the signal to me that gold was done going down. 15 months later gold still hasn't confirmed an uptrend. still needs more work to do.

in today's s+p i have not been able to come up with a sell signal, but i have seen some bad signs which tell me we are close to a big hit. i would say sometime within a year. i didn't like seeing the market with 12 consecutive all time highs in a row. that is one bad signal to me.

the penny stock that i have been playing SFOR has been having some terrible volume characteristics to me yet i remain in it until i see volume off the top. the stock to me is what i call a story stock, everything looks good so far but the complete story is still not out of the bag yet either way. even 2 days ago when the stock traded 60 million shares, it was still light volume and didn't prove real conviction in the equity. in the back of my head i know that 99 9/10% of these types of equities are pump and dump's. there have been some very few that were not. hopefully this is one of the very few.

[lamboguy]

i got my education in the markets 40 years ago. i had a stockbroker that had a double profession. he was also a bookmaker. at time the guy worked for a brokerage firm called Shearson Hayden Stone. i used to go to the guys office to settle up my horse bets every day. .

in his office they had a division for commodity and futures trading. there were about 20 guys that came to the office to bet on futures every day. they all had the same thing in common, they were all losing their shirts. right about that time frame was when i first got aquainted to the gold market and boy did it catch my fancy. so i studied it and made a few gold trades myself. i went broke like everyone else. now i found myself out of money and there weren't any bookmakers around that were going to take my horse action.

i wound up putting a small bankroll together and went to Nevada to bet on horses. while i was out there i used to bet my horses and sports and then go to the library to look up old news
papers that were on microfiche and read books about markets and made my own system. i came up with volume analysis back then.

i lasted in the dessert for 3 years before i got myself in and out of trouble there. getting into trouble in Vegas is the easiest thing in the world to do, getting out of it is the very tricky part.

so i came back home broke again, and luckily my mother still had my old empty bedroom with the furniture still there. i went to work and put a bankroll together, this time instead of betting horses which i won at, i would take my best shot at the markets.

i went to play the markets using all the knowledge i had obtained from all the books i read and my own systems. i kind of held my own but in the end i went broke at it because i couldn't overcome the commission's i had to pay and the money that the brokerage firm nickled and dimed me out of. full service brokers charged something like $300 to trade 1000 shares of a stock on the way in, and another $300 on the way out. sometimes i would only be in a stock for an hour, sometimes a week and sometimes a month. no matter what i did i was always the victim of the sharp guys on the other side of the trade from me.

this is how i learned the markets and how to deal with life in general. my best deductions are that no matter what you do in life, you have to be able to make your own decisions without listening to the masses of people and so called expert's. and let me tell you the most important thing, conventional thinking is usually wrong. in order to be successful and stay healthy you need to make your own good choices. in my life there has been more downs than ups, but when things go right you have to savor and appreciate those days.

[reckless]

Nice post lambo and thanks for sharing.

When you returned home and found your bedroom in tact, I bet your Mom said to you, 'I always knew you'd come home again.' God bless and love all the mothers of the world. We cannot survive without them.

I can't put a finger on when, why or specifically how, but from a relatively young age I always knew in my heart that people that gave out tips on the horses or stock market buy recommendations were full of shat and should be avoided. I just 'knew it' that they had a vested interest and that my success and best interests were not part of the deal as it was theirs.

I guess you can say growing up in the South Bronx -- surrounded by bookies, killers, pool halls, priests and nuns and like-minded immigrant cynics of all authority and mainstream -- helped formed this mindset and has protected me against the hucksters, con men and worst of all, those that tried to game you solely on the basis of their self-described intellect and college connections. From my first investments I always made my own buy-sell market moves and always bet the horses based on own handicapping 'ability'. I always concentrate on specific companies and not the general market so I am always in the market and am also reshuffling my portfolio.

I could smell a fake, a phony, a fraud and a dope a mile away, actually, especially today in this world of ours of Social Media and high-speed communications.

My gut feeling is that the GOP is secretly working to derail the Trump Train and his agenda. Also, they are simply refusing to see what the results of the 2016 election was all about. How could they? They caused most of the problems that people voted against and are the main reason why Trump got the nomination and election.

Trump is smarter than all these clowns in Wash DC -- especially idiots like Paul Ryan and the GOP leadership. He'll correct this in time, I am positive about this. But he needs to move out Reince Priebus. I don't see that happening at this time, sad to say.

As for the market, I am net long by many and the small sell trades I made Wednesday closed out very long positions that were near my sell price anyway. Nothing rong in selling into strength. Two of the three companies sold I made 400 per cent gains that go back over 8 years. It was an easy decision, especially with what's happening in DC currently. We are still in a generational buying opportunity mode and I will add to my prime positions regularly over the next 6-12-18 months.

Good luck with your bets and your investments.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down just under 5% today

[lamboguy]

another down day for SFOR down exactly 5% for the day

[lamboguy]

SFOR was up 12% today on light volume

[Parkview_Pirate]

Sideways action for a while now, after the S&P topped 2400 on 3/1. VIX on the rise the last couple of weeks, and day trading has been good. Some sell signals triggered, but no solid confirmation on those yet.

Tomorrow (April 11th) is a "turn date" of sorts, though direction of the move is not predicted. The path of least resistance seems downward, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see another run towards 2400 before the markets roll over. IMHO, the market has not priced in the Fed's intentions to raise rates AND bleed off some of their balance sheet, both of which will add to the headwinds the markets and economy face for the rest of the year - and beyond. Contraction, or the more politically correct term "negative growth", seem unavoidable to a common sense point of view. Not that the markets will necessarily reflect that view.

So, I'll predict that over the next few weeks the markets head lower, with the S&P settling down around 2260, which is where it consolidated for about six weeks from mid-December until late January of this year. After that, who knows? Longer term trend is still up.

[ReplayRandall]

Interesting story about a doctor going to Louisville on a United over-booked flight, was randomly chosen to give his seat up, since no one else would volunteer, they chose "randomly" for 4 patrons to give up their seats. The first three complied, but the doctor was forcibly dragged down the aisle on his back, out of the plane. The incident happened yesterday, and it made National news, however even with such bad publicity United(UAL) stock went UP today. Yes, the bean-counters at United figured they had to prop up the stock to fight off the short sellers......Just another incident that points to never trusting this market, with its strange twists and turns, for continued devious reasons....Most hated market in history, and with good reason.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uniteds-shares-even-fury-over-174729381.html

[Parkview_Pirate]

.....Just another incident that points to never trusting this market, with its strange twists and turns, for continued devious reasons....Most hated market in history, and with good reason.

Sounds like someone was short UAL, and expecting a nice pay day when the "displaced passenger" story broke.

Perhaps this market is despised by the bears, but certainly not by the bulls. At least not all of them. I have an uncle who has traded stocks for the past five years, and has run his account up from about $40K to $130K, holding between six and ten names at a time. He loves it, though we know that going long won't always be a winning strategy.

I would agree that the market is not behaving in a rational, or "traditional" sense, with news, fundamentals and even technicals having lost much of their predictive value. The markets, like horse racing, aren't always above board with their behavior, but IMHO part of the frustration from investors and people in the business is that the global markets have introduced far more complexity to market correlations. Remember when the dollar would sink, and the markets would rocket higher? That correlation seems to be gone. Lots of foreign buyers, central banks buying, and HFT machines in the mix make it a tougher game to profit on these days.

Just like horse racing.

[ReplayRandall]

Sounds like someone was short UAL, and expecting a nice pay day when the "displaced passenger" story broke.

Perhaps this market is despised by the bears, but certainly not by the bulls. At least not all of them. I have an uncle who has traded stocks for the past five years, and has run his account up from about $40K to $130K, holding between six and ten names at a time. He loves it, though we know that going long won't always be a winning strategy.

I would agree that the market is not behaving in a rational, or "traditional" sense, with news, fundamentals and even technicals having lost much of their predictive value. The markets, like horse racing, aren't always above board with their behavior, but IMHO part of the frustration from investors and people in the business is that the global markets have introduced far more complexity to market correlations. Remember when the dollar would sink, and the markets would rocket higher? That correlation seems to be gone. Lots of foreign buyers, central banks buying, and HFT machines in the mix make it a tougher game to profit on these days.

Just like horse racing.
I did just as well as your uncle(4X), then decided it was time to cash in and get out, permanently. I just thought the story was a good example of why most private investors are out, and will stay out because of BS like this, as well as the joke that Wells Fargo has become, yet it just keeps the bubble growing until.....you know the rest..:rip:

[Parkview_Pirate]

I did just as well as your uncle(4X), then decided it was time to cash in and get out, permanently. I just thought the story was a good example of why most private investors are out, and will stay out because of BS like this, as well as the joke that Wells Fargo has become, yet it just keeps the bubble growing until.....you know the rest..:rip:

I hardly think that a passenger being removed from an aircraft and a 3/4 of a percent rise in the stock price of the airline is a "good example" of market insanity. It's not like two United flights were hijacked and used in suicide missions. And at the end of the day, the good doctor who was dragged off the plane was in violation of the law, since passengers are required to follow orders from the flight crew. Maybe not the best PR move ever, but should the stockholders suffer for some poor judgement by a single ground crew?

And not to pick another battle, but why do you believe that "most" private investors are out of the market? The insane prices would lead one to believe otherwise. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I only know a handful of traders that are frustrated to the point of no longer wanting to participate. Unlike horse racing, where I know far more former players, who are gone for good.

The "rigged game" of the financial sectors of the economy are frustrating, and while I share some of your bearish views, RR, I must say the guilt of being complicit in the participation is tempered by the need to have some income - which is better than simply drawing down on retirement accounts.

I hope this hasn't strayed too far off topic....:)

[ReplayRandall]

The "rigged game" of the financial sectors of the economy are frustrating, and while I share some of your bearish views, RR, I must say the guilt of being complicit in the participation is tempered by the need to have some income - which is better than simply drawing down on retirement accounts.

I hope this hasn't strayed too far off topic....:)
There's always a tipping point when some small event will be THE "straw that breaks the camel's back and ushers in a crushing Black Swan ripple effect". IMO, you "need" to invest in only 4 sectors: WATER, ELECTRICITY, FOOD(canned) and WASTE DISPOSAL, as these are absolute needs for survival and health. If you must have income through the market, pick the very best companies of these sectors with proven stable dividends.....All the rest is pure gambling and will lead to ultimate disappointment and nest-egg rupture.

[lamboguy]

Replay Randall said it right. i a gambling right now with what i classify as a concept or story stock. at the present time the story is right there. in the tech industry, idea's come and go real fast. my stock is probably a month away from either being a grand slam or a dud that will fizzle out into blue water. i stand to make between $100k -$1 million if everything goes right. i stand to lose ZERO because i have taken my principle and a little more off the table. those are good gambles in any type of market.

[lamboguy]

SFOR came out with a pr today and it was not what i was hoping for. its not bad though. they announced that they are selling their products on Home Shopping Network.

they are coming in with their 10k friday, maybe more good news that can move the stock.

[ReplayRandall]

Sounds like someone was short UAL, and expecting a nice pay day when the "displaced passenger" story broke.
Let's see just how much the UAL bean-counters are willing to put into the pot now......Looks like this "small event" has big legs:

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=UAL

[lamboguy]

SFOR down under 3% today

[lamboguy]

SFOR down another 5% today

[Parkview_Pirate]

Let's see just how much the UAL bean-counters are willing to put into the pot now......Looks like this "small event" has big legs:

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=UAL

The stock price bounced back over $71 yesterday, though it's down slightly now with the rest of the market - and just where it was last Friday. The story, from a valuation perspective for UAL, appears for now to have shrugged off the negative PR and social media blitz and remains a small event. Personally, I'm not a fan of United 'cause connecting through ORD is a nightmare, but this wouldn't affect my decision to fly with them in the future.

What this story does represent though, IMHO, is how the media likes to focus on relatively unimportant and irrelevant issues intended to evoke emotional responses - upping ratings and click counts for revenue. We've got many other problems in this country that could use more coverage, but they don't attract the the masses like a confrontational cell phone video.

As a side note, I would expand the sector of "electricity" to "energy", or at least oil on your list of sectors in which to invest. Though personally, I'm a fan of the futures and not common stock....

[lamboguy]

what is going on now with UAL is just a piece of news. that news about carrying out a passenger might move the stock temporarily in one direction or the other.

if you are looking for something that looks like it only has one direction to go (north) take a good look at gold and silver. it not only gives you good direction, it also provides you with insurance.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down another 3% today along with the rest of the market

[lamboguy]

stock market closed but SFOR released their 10k today. it was not to pretty and i would expect the stock to get hit on Monday. the only mitigating factor they might have is they are on Home Shopping Network over this weekend selling their products. if they have big sales it could help.

SFOR's problem is they are getting low on funds. they have enough to last about 6 months. they need to either get taken over and/or settle more lawsuits.

stock should crater to under .02 which will be a decent re-entry point for me.

[AltonKelsey]

Didn't know you sold it all.

[lamboguy]

Didn't know you sold it all.i didn't sell all of it. i wound up with a little over a million shares and my total investment back.

i would say it really doesn't look to good for the time being from what i read yesterday.

the company only has enough money in its treasury to last 6 months from here. they are either going to need revenues from sales, money from some of their lawsuits or get taken over by a big company that needs the patent.

the stock should get wrecked on monday.

[lamboguy]

https://www.hsn.com/youtube/Product/Electronics/VSFT3cSboEg

[lamboguy]

today was the first day that this was sold on Home Shopping Network. i am told they have sold over 1000 of them on their first segment. the company has a net profit of $20 per sale on HSN.

this is actually a very small portion of what their business is. they are in the process of working out a contract to protect encryption for the Department of Defense.

this company is to small to be able to handle the possible needs and sales of what this product can do going forward. someone is going to eventually buy them out. they have offers that the CEO has turned down, he thinks he is 2 years away from being taken over.

after watching this video i don't think that anyone can still make fun of this heavily diluted penny stock if they can imagine what the market is for this patented product.

[lamboguy]

this is unconfirmed right now but i am hearing they sold 2000 of these on HSN the very first day they went to broadcast. they have a larger time frame on HSN in their contract.

even though they are basically splitting their revenue with HSN, its still giving the company great exposure to sell other places. like i said before the company has very little money left in the till, so they have to come up with bad deals like this going on HSN to stay in business. they can't dilute the stock to much more, otherwise they will have a great product and nothing to show for it.

not so sure if the stock is going to take that big a hit monday, if it does go below .02 i am going to step in and buy more to try to build up my position in the stock.

if anyone remembers, i touted touted LIFELOCK before Rudi Guiliani went onboard with them. the stock price was $6 at the time and went to over $25 a few months later. i believe the company is now private.

[_______]

http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20170414/AAZ2I62CZ22FTZP222292ZZ2NGS6FZ27G292/

Above is the latest filing from April 17.

Their accounting firm has "substantial doubt" about their ability to continue as a going concern. The company themselves state they have enough cash on hand to last only another 6 months. Their operations are currently not profitable and they reported a profit only because of a settlement received from their patent trolling.

Just in case anyone else wants to jump in on this, I want to caution that you don't want to be on this merry-go-round when the music stops.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down 31% today. wild ride on this baby

[lamboguy]

SFOR was down 34% on 4/18

today SFOR was up 33%


wild stock!

[lamboguy]

http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20170414/AAZ2I62CZ22FTZP222292ZZ2NGS6FZ27G292/

Above is the latest filing from April 17.

Their accounting firm has "substantial doubt" about their ability to continue as a going concern. The company themselves state they have enough cash on hand to last only another 6 months. Their operations are currently not profitable and they reported a profit only because of a settlement received from their patent trolling.

Just in case anyone else wants to jump in on this, I want to caution that you don't want to be on this merry-go-round when the music stops.with the utmost of all respect, you aren't going to make any money reading reports of what has happened. you have to be able to use your intuition to predict the future. its really the same in anything in life, horse racing, stock picking, sporting events, elections, marriages and relationships. you name it and you are in trouble trying to predict the future using the past. the reason for this is because we live in a world and the planet earth keeps spinning around the world. movements mean changes, changes mean lower probability in being able to predict.

these probably are the good reason's why humans tend to pick the wrong way most of the time.

maybe you have happened to have predicted the right direction for my stock pick of SFOR. i highly doubt it though but will give you some credit that there is a very small probability that happen to be right. time will eventually be the final arbitrator of that.

by the way i am not picking on you even though you did slam me quite a few times on Massachusetts in this past presidential election. congratulations on being right on that state. but you see it really doesn't bother me because i understand how tough it is for most people to be forward thinkers instead they are relying on history to make their choices in life.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down 1% today

[whodoyoulike]

with the utmost of all respect, you aren't going to make any money reading reports of what has happened. you have to be able to use your intuition to predict the future. its really the same in anything in life, horse racing, stock picking, sporting events, elections, marriages and relationships. you name it and you are in trouble trying to predict the future using the past. the reason for this is because we live in a world and the planet earth keeps spinning around the world. movements mean changes, changes mean lower probability in being able to predict.

these probably are the good reason's why humans tend to pick the wrong way most of the time. ...

I disagree when you see that type of warning in a financial report, you need to weigh it appropriately. Those types of warnings are not taken lightly because of the financial ramifications for those providing the warnings. But, I do agree in sports etc., one's intuition (or opinions) carries more weight.

[lamboguy]

I disagree when you see that type of warning in a financial report, you need to weigh it appropriately. Those types of warnings are not taken lightly because of the financial ramifications for those providing the warnings. But, I do agree in sports etc., one's intuition (or opinions) carries more weight.i'm not saying not to listen to the 10k. i even stated right away it looks abominable. this stock is basically a risk reward play.

lets say they only have enough money for 6 months, if they don't come up with any they are basically out of business. we know that ahead of time with this equity. the company needs a deal or a big order and they need it fast.

from personal experience, you don't need to be flush with cash to make a successful business. i did it in the car leasing business with $2500 and a credit card that had a $3000 line. within 1 year i became the largest independent car lease company in North America. all you need is something that someone else needs and you will do plenty of business.

[whodoyoulike]

i'm not saying not to listen to the 10k. i even stated right away it looks abominable. this stock is basically a risk reward play.

lets say they only have enough money for 6 months, if they don't come up with any they are basically out of business. we know that ahead of time with this equity. the company needs a deal or a big order and they need it fast.

from personal experience, you don't need to be flush with cash to make a successful business. i did it in the car leasing business with $2500 and a credit card that had a $3000 line. within 1 year i became the largest independent car lease company in North America. all you need is something that someone else needs and you will do plenty of business.

Well, I've mentioned before that I like your gutsy moves.

I'm really (maybe just a little) not trying to dissuade you on this. But, you're just too gutsy for me on this type of "investment".

Or, maybe you just have too much money compared to me.

[_______]

with the utmost of all respect, you aren't going to make any money reading reports of what has happened. you have to be able to use your intuition to predict the future. its really the same in anything in life, horse racing, stock picking, sporting events, elections, marriages and relationships. you name it and you are in trouble trying to predict the future using the past. the reason for this is because we live in a world and the planet earth keeps spinning around the world. movements mean changes, changes mean lower probability in being able to predict.

these probably are the good reason's why humans tend to pick the wrong way most of the time.

maybe you have happened to have predicted the right direction for my stock pick of SFOR. i highly doubt it though but will give you some credit that there is a very small probability that happen to be right. time will eventually be the final arbitrator of that.

by the way i am not picking on you even though you did slam me quite a few times on Massachusetts in this past presidential election. congratulations on being right on that state. but you see it really doesn't bother me because i understand how tough it is for most people to be forward thinkers instead they are relying on history to make their choices in life.

You and I approach investing in stocks very differently. That's okay.

I didn't really post the 10-k for your benefit. I never expected it would matter to you.

But since the stock market prediction thread has recently become the daily discussion of this single penny stock, I wanted to inject a different point of view from yours.

I get that it's an exciting ride. That's not what a lot of people want. The 10-k was to supposed to be a warning to anyone who wants to sleep well at night about what could happen to their money if they decided to follow you.

I hope you do well on this. The one thing I'll warn you on is that as illiquid as this stock is today, you are going to find offers completely disappear as the clock runs out if you don't get the white knight you seem convinced is just around the corner.

[Parkview_Pirate]

10 days ago I was looking for a decline to 2260 on the S&P. Still may happen, but the sideways chop now points higher. That is if you believe in Elliot Wave theory. So,

Bullish Outlook:

S&P breaks above 2361 or so, holds, and then the run to new highs above 2400 begin. May take two days to three months to play out. But, if a "wave 5" move, can truncate without warning. In theory, the Fed committed to keeping prices propped up, though their guidance on interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction would have the opposite effect.

Bearish Outlook:

S&P breaks below 2320 or so, holds, and then runs down to 2260, playing out over a week to two months. Headwinds like the debt ceiling, congressional gridlock, government shutdown, declining tax receipts, French election and the Euro, shooting war over N. Korea, expanded shooting war in the Middle East, etc., are all potential catalysts to set off a waterfall. But that's where the phrase "wall of worry" comes in.

The last 10 days the downward moves did not have the impulse required to take the market lower, and now it looks like the short-term trend is up and the intermediate trend becoming up as well. Got very lucky twice this week, getting out of a long position on Wed morning before a reversal and dive, and getting out of a short position this morning (with one tick to spare), before the rocket ride north began. With all the wedges, triangles, pivots, and sharp reversals in the mix, I'll be sitting on the sidelines until one of the two outlooks above becomes apparent.....:coffee:

[lamboguy]

SFOR up less than 1% today.

watch out next week with the equity markets, they might take a huge hit.

[Tape Reader]

SFOR up less than 1% today.

watch out next week with the equity markets, they might take a huge hit.


Why might they take a huge hit?

[lamboguy]

Why might they take a huge hit?there are some cycles that come up next week that do not bode well for markets. plus there is a strong possibility that a war might break out when you look at what is going on the world today between North Korea and the middle east

[_______]

there are some cycles that come up next week that do not bode well for markets. plus there is a strong possibility that a war might break out when you look at what is going on the world today between North Korea and the middle east

Wars are good for markets, not bad.

And there is no more of a possibility of one next week than there was last.

[sammy the sage]

Wars are good for markets, not bad.

And there is no more of a possibility of one next week than there was last.

Maybe long term...NOT short term...which is what is being discussed currently...also with those S. americans in V...not good news....

[_______]

Maybe long term...NOT short term...which is what is being discussed currently...also with those S. americans in V...not good news....

Uncertainty is bad for markets. The beginning of a military action by U.S. forces marks the end of uncertainty.

Barron's just ran an article on this subject listing the 8 times since the 1980's that the U.S. has launched a military mission and comparing the market 1 month before and 1 month after that date.

The market isn't just up in every instance following the start of a war, it's up significantly more than the average up month.

So DEFINTLY short term. Maybe long term.

I'd link this but it's behind the Dow Jones paywall. If you subscribe look for the article "War is Hell...but not for the Stock Market" for details.

[lamboguy]

i am figuring that its going to be a 2 step process to take this market apart. i am looking for a decent hit sometime this upcoming week and maybe another good sized one the end of june or july. i should be able to zero in and get more precise as far as dates go for the 2nd take down after seeing what happens this week if it does get clocked.

[_______]

Outside of a black swan, the most likely generator of market volatility next week would be Congressional inaction on the debt ceiling. That might qualify as a very light grey swan since I think an assumption it won't happen is built in.

Decades from now, there will be doctoral candidates in economics trying to explain why an 8 year bull market was so hated in every stage of it's existence. People will scour sites like this for information on investor attitudes.

I think the market will eventually go down the same way every other bull market ended. With excessive enthusiasm.

So long as I can read multiple posts about why it's overvalued (I've contributed a few), there's a floor. This ain't the 90's. It's definitely not 2007.

I think the business cycle still exists. But a deep recession like we went through results in a shallow u shaped recovery. We're used to v's and people are looking for the peak they expect every 5 years and thinking it's late.

It's not. And the next recession (when it comes) won't be a repeat of 2008. It'll be normal.

[lamboguy]

Outside of a black swan, the most likely generator of market volatility next week would be Congressional inaction on the debt ceiling. That might qualify as a very light grey swan since I think an assumption it won't happen is built in.

Decades from now, there will be doctoral candidates in economics trying to explain why an 8 year bull market was so hated in every stage of it's existence. People will scour sites like this for information on investor attitudes.

I think the market will eventually go down the same way every other bull market ended. With excessive enthusiasm.

So long as I can read multiple posts about why it's overvalued (I've contributed a few), there's a floor. This ain't the 90's. It's definitely not 2007.

I think the business cycle still exists. But a deep recession like we went through results in a shallow u shaped recovery. We're used to v's and people are looking for the peak they expect every 5 years and thinking it's late.

It's not. And the next recession (when it comes) won't be a repeat of 2008. It'll be normal.fortunately i learned not to listen to anyone.

for my prediction here i am using cycle work based strictly on time. i threw in a possible fundamental reason, but i don't know for sure even if the market cracks that its going to be the reason.

by my work it looks like the market can take a big hit tuesday or wednesday.

just to warn you ahead of time, i can't believe how many times i have predicted a big move in the market ahead of time and if i predicted down it would go up huge on that day. the prediction i have right now is a pretty strong one, things really point strongly on this move. we shall see next week what happens.

[_______]

fortunately i learned not to listen to anyone.

for my prediction here i am using cycle work based strictly on time. i threw in a possible fundamental reason, but i don't know for sure even if the market cracks that its going to be the reason.

by my work it looks like the market can take a big hit tuesday or wednesday.

just to warn you ahead of time, i can't believe how many times i have predicted a big move in the market ahead of time and if i predicted down it would go up huge on that day. the prediction i have right now is a pretty strong one, things really point strongly on this move. we shall see next week what happens.

If I read this correctly then you are predicting a big downturn Tuesday or Wednesday. Unless it's a rally in which case you will also be correct.

Are you sure you don't want to add some brackets to the timeframe?

There's still a chance you could be wrong otherwise.

I won't pin you down on any numerical specificity for "big move". That way you can claim any normal volatility as confirmation.

[lamboguy]

i am predicting it goes down big. i am placing my bets for 2 down days. i would say it would have to go down at least 35 s+p points for this prediction to be correct.

all i said in the prior post is that sometimes the cycle is inverted.

[_______]

i am predicting it goes down big. i am placing my bets for 2 down days. i would say it would have to go down at least 35 s+p points for this prediction to be correct.

all i said in the prior post is that sometimes the cycle is inverted.

1.5%.

Just to be clear, is this both days or total?

[lamboguy]

1.5%.

Just to be clear, is this both days or total? if i can be right once every 3 times to be way ahead. its the same idea that i had going into SFOR.
i caught that one at the perfect time and cashed in and i am now letting only the profit roll. that is a good position to be in when you can execute it properly.

i know all about being wrong on things, its easy to be wrong and skeptical. but somehow i pick winners along the way that can overcome the losers.

SFOR is a proven 5 bagger in less than a month until it cracked.

[AltonKelsey]

Market rampage. Upside.

[Tape Reader]

Market rampage. Upside.


Dud! Huge resistance above.

[AltonKelsey]

Dud! Huge resistance above.

May well be. But if you bought puts and we don't retrace 20 points from tonight, you have wet noodle.

[lamboguy]

after the French election results the markets in France are up 5% now. this is probably going to mean a big gap up in our markets including the S+P. that will present itself with a great entry point to short the S+P some time this morning currently the S+P is trading up 30 points a little over 1% pre U.S. open. i would wait until around 10:00 a.m. and use a 1% stop loss from where it is.

[lamboguy]

they are taking gold and silver apart too, those look good to go long now. gold can break to $1240 and silver to $17.35 so there is more room to travel downside and a little riskier than the S+P as far as having your back against the wall.

[reckless]

Another great day for those investors who ignored the smarty pants in the financial press, ignored the snot noses in the political press, and laughed at all those goof-balls of the doom and gloom underground that constantly call for the world to end ... don't say you weren't warned.

Dow up 216 points today on heavy volume. Record all-time highs for companies like Microsoft and Disney ... simply a great day for sure.

Despite a huge near 6-month rally following one poster's sensational generational buying opportunity call of November 3, 2016 or so, there are still dozens of companies selling at a big discount to intrinsic value. Don't leave even more money on the table. Go out there and invest. In a year you'll regret it, for sure, if you don't. Just think some could have been $3 trillion richer if they just listened to me earlier ... :lol::lol:

With the great Marine Le Pen's upcoming victory in France, saving a once-proud nation, plus the great Donald J. Trump doing everything right for the USA and the citizens who elected him, the sky is now the limit to how far this market rally could go ... from here.

[Tape Reader]

Another great day for those investors who ignored the smarty pants in the financial press, ignored the snot noses in the political press, and laughed at all those goof-balls of the doom and gloom underground that constantly call for the world to end ... don't say you weren't warned.

Dow up 216 points today on heavy volume. Record all-time highs for companies like Microsoft and Disney ... simply a great day for sure.

Despite a huge near 6-month rally following one poster's sensational generational buying opportunity call of November 3, 2016 or so, there are still dozens of companies selling at a big discount to intrinsic value. Don't leave even more money on the table. Go out there and invest. In a year you'll regret it, for sure, if you don't. Just think some could have been $3 trillion richer if they just listened to me earlier ... :lol::lol:

With the great Marine Le Pen's upcoming victory in France, saving a once-proud nation, plus the great Donald J. Trump doing everything right for the USA and the citizens who elected him, the sky is now the limit to how far this market rally could go ... from here.

Heavy “stopping volume” I would call it. Love your enthusiasm but I think we have a short term pull back from here.

[reckless]

Heavy “stopping volume” I would call it. Love your enthusiasm but I think we have a short term pull back from here.

That is always a possibility Tape Reader, of course, but everything that I look for when investing is not only still in play, but actually looking better than in a very long time.

This market rally could be derailed near term by just one thing only -- the corrupt GOP leadership of Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell or lack thereof. They want Trump to fail and they'll do whatever they could to do such a thing. Fighting Trump on building a wall, income tax reform, illegal immigration and other signature campaign promises could slow this bull to a crawl real fast.

The business and corporate side of the stock market is improving daily and there are still dozens of major companies selling at near-ridiculous discounts to their intrinsic value.

[Ocala Mike]

[B]

With the great Marine Le Pen's upcoming victory in France, saving a once-proud nation




I was under the impression that world markets rallied because she faces almost certain defeat in the runoff. Silly me!

[whodoyoulike]

... The business and corporate side of the stock market is improving daily and there are still dozens of major companies selling at near-ridiculous discounts to their intrinsic value.

Really??

"Selling at near-ridiculous discounts to their intrinsic value" makes me wonder exactly what you are actually looking at for each of these major companies in particular and the US economy in general at the macro level in the next 5 years.

[reckless]

I was under the impression that world markets rallied because she faces almost certain defeat in the runoff. Silly me!

The elite forces in the media and the Establishment said that Donald Trump will lose. He didn't lose, of course. He was a cinch! And, the stock market has gone straight up since then.

The elite forces in the media and the Establishment said that the world markets and the UK economy will crater if the citizens voted to 'leave' the EU in the Brexit referendum. The people voted to leave and the world markets and the UK economy did not crater.

So, Mike, do you really think that the markets rallied big today because Le Pen faces almost certain defeat in the runoff? :lol::lol:

Don't be silly.

[reckless]

Really??

"Selling at near-ridiculous discounts to their intrinsic value" makes me wonder exactly what you are actually looking at for each of these major companies in particular and the US economy in general at the macro level in the next 5 years.

In a word, yes. I spent all this past week buying shares of companies I have owned for many years while adding 3-4 new positions. Today I put in some more orders but because of the election in France, the market just took off from jump street, as you probably know.

In no particular order, this is what I look at when researching and buying a stock.

Price to free cash flow.

Yield on free cash flow.

Annual and longer term free cash flow growth.

Return on equity.

Return on Invested Capital.

Free cash flow return on invested capital, a powerful and rarely used metric. It's dynamite.

A somewhat consistent growth in sales and to a smaller extent, earnings.

I am going to guess that you might not agree .... that's OK, of course. No one on this site agrees with me on anything and that's OK, too. I actually like that since I've been right so very often. But, yet, the critics never offer any alternative or differing commentary. Why is that? I always thought a discussion between differing points of view is good and educational.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down 7% today


S+P up 25 points or 1%

if i am right the market should take a big hit tuesday

[whodoyoulike]

In a word, yes. I spent all this past week buying shares of companies I have owned for many years while adding 3-4 new positions. Today I put in some more orders but because of the election in France, the market just took off from jump street, as you probably know.

In no particular order, this is what I look at when researching and buying a stock.

Price to free cash flow.

Yield on free cash flow.

Annual and longer term free cash flow growth.

Return on equity.

Return on Invested Capital.

Free cash flow return on invested capital, a powerful and rarely used metric. It's dynamite.

A somewhat consistent growth in sales and to a smaller extent, earnings.

I am going to guess that you might not agree .... that's OK, of course. No one on this site agrees with me on anything and that's OK, too. I actually like that since I've been right so very often. But, yet, the critics never offer any alternative or differing commentary. Why is that? I always thought a discussion between differing points of view is good and educational.

Okay. I haven't paid much attention to free cash flow because it widely fluctuates. I look at a number of things i.e., earnings, pe, sales, debt (and it's growth/reduction), cash flow pretty much where they spend their money etc.

I'm not as optimistic as you and don't see widespread valuations below intrinsic value however one defines it.

Are these really major companies or the ones you have been focusing on?

[reckless]

Okay. I haven't paid much attention to free cash flow because it widely fluctuates. I look at a number of things i.e., earnings, pe, sales, debt (and it's growth/reduction), cash flow pretty much where they spend their money etc.

I'm not as optimistic as you and don't see widespread valuations below intrinsic value however one defines it.

Are these really major companies or the ones you have been focusing on?

You tell me if you think these are major companies. I think they are.

Apple, Gilead, Accenture, Viacom, Lazard, Travelers Insurance, United Therapeutics ... that's a nice place to start. Diversified too. A giant company, large cap, mid size and a smaller cap. All are great companies selling at a huge discount to intrinsic value.

The only one I'm really angry about is Gilead. My average purchase price is now $68, but it's been almost a direct drop since my first buy. This year and next they'll generate about $10-15 in FCF. If they sell anywhere close to their historic norm, it's a $200+ stock. I just hope I don't go broke before I'm 'proven' right. :D

I buy companies, I do not buy 'the market.'

[_______]

You tell me if you think these are major companies. I think they are.

Apple, Gilead, Accenture, Viacom, Lazard, Travelers Insurance, United Therapeutics ... that's a nice place to start. Diversified too. A giant company, large cap, mid size and a smaller cap. All are great companies selling at a huge discount to intrinsic value.

The only one I'm really angry about is Gilead. My average purchase price is now $68, but it's been almost a direct drop since my first buy. This year and next they'll generate about $10-15 in FCF. If they sell anywhere close to their historic norm, it's a $200+ stock. I just hope I don't go broke before I'm 'proven' right. :D

I buy companies, I do not buy 'the market.'

The problem with Gilead is that they continue lowering guidance on HCV. They have a nice franchise in HIV but it's tiny compared the shrinking gorilla of HCV. Their pipeline has some potential in NASH which is another liver disease but outside of that there is nothing for the market to grasp onto that looks like a long term driver of growth.

As you know, I was into Gilead with an average cost in the mid-90's. I sold out around $69 after their last quarter. Solvedi and Harvoni are cash cows but they are curing the disease, not treating it. The patient pool is shrinking faster than I thought it would. It's great for humanity but terrible for a business.

I hope Gilead manages to do something with the cash pile they have. I know they've shown some interest in oncology but it's not their area of expertise. They would need to do a fairly significant acquistion. Which might be great long term but is unlikely to do anything positive for their price when it occurs.

Gilead is a great company. I'm no longer sure it's a great investment.

[lamboguy]

fortunately i learned not to listen to anyone.

for my prediction here i am using cycle work based strictly on time. i threw in a possible fundamental reason, but i don't know for sure even if the market cracks that its going to be the reason.

by my work it looks like the market can take a big hit tuesday or wednesday.

just to warn you ahead of time, i can't believe how many times i have predicted a big move in the market ahead of time and if i predicted down it would go up huge on that day. the prediction i have right now is a pretty strong one, things really point strongly on this move. we shall see next week what happens.
tthis was the day that i had zero'd in and it went completely opposite. i got stopped out and will wait for my next day that should come up within 2 months.

[PaceAdvantage]

tthis was the day that i had zero'd in and it went completely opposite. i got stopped out and will wait for my next day that should come up within 2 months.I hope very much the market takes off the upside RIGHT NOW and for the rest of the day...then I will close the position I took around 10:20am at about the price the S&P is right now...:ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

of course now that I posted the above, feel free to fade me...:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Two and half hours later and I'm at the price I bought at despite an attempt at going higher...:sleeping:

[AltonKelsey]

not so easy to lift much off two gap up days. you take what they give you.

be grateful you didn't take the advice offered here and come in short.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ended up losing three quarters of a point on the trade...ho hum

[Tape Reader]

not so easy to lift much off two gap up days. you take what they give you.

be grateful you didn't take the advice offered here and come in short.

If I were you I would reserve that “smugness” for a few days.

[ReplayRandall]

If I were you I would reserve that “smugness” for a few days.
TP, give us a taste of what you believe will happen in the next few days...

[AltonKelsey]

If I were you I would reserve that “smugness” for a few days.

Is that what they call not imagining the market is about collapse in a heap?

[lamboguy]

If I were you I would reserve that “smugness” for a few days.
i had predicted the market to tank on tuesday, so now that i am stopped out with a $7500 loss its probably going to tank the rest of the week. that is just the way things work out, i am only human and get things wrong often and if anyone read my previous post's i admitted that lately i have been getting the move in the opposite direction. if i was smart enough i would have straddled the position and had a big win, but that is not how i play the game and never will play it that way. i got another big turn day coming between the last part of june and early july and i will probably go short again when i have the date pinpointed.

[Tape Reader]

TP, give us a taste of what you believe will happen in the next few days...

My original post was “I think we have a short term pull back from here." I will add that sometimes cycles/waves miss by a few days/price bars.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh look...there's the breakout I was waiting and hoping for yesterday...:bang:

[AltonKelsey]

Timing is everything.

Kind of like a horse that wins NEXT time out.

[PaceAdvantage]

Rally died as quickly as it started...no heart

[AltonKelsey]

Tax reform looks like a winner if it can pass.

Boom!

[whodoyoulike]

Tax reform looks like a winner if it can pass.

Boom!

That's exactly what the U.S. stock market is focusing on and not the events in France as someone mentioned earlier this week.

A few questions.

1) If this corporate tax reduction goes as planned, who picks up the corporate tax savings to continue running this country?

2) As it stands, don't we still have a HUGE deficit currently?

3) Which is more important, the corporate tax rate or the individual tax rate?

[reckless]

That's exactly what the U.S. stock market is focusing on and not the events in France as someone mentioned earlier this week.

A few questions.

1) If this corporate tax reduction goes as planned, who picks up the corporate tax savings to continue running this country?

2) As it stands, don't we still have a HUGE deficit currently?

3) Which is more important, the corporate tax rate or the individual tax rate?

For question No. 1-- Trump wants to jump start a morbid 10+ year economy. He also wants to create jobs, especially well-paying, blue collar manufacturing jobs. A lower corporate tax rate such as the kind Trump wants... will stop corporate inversions cold, which will bring home the trillions of dollars US companies have overseas. With these tax monies returned, plus all future income taxed at a lower rate, will help create jobs and stimulate capital spending. Why should our companies have to pay a nearly 40 per cent corporate tax rate here while the same companies pay only about 15 per cent, some more, some less, in places like Ireland?

Job creation and investment, capital and plants, etc., means more taxable income spent up and the down the chain, which will help run the country, so to speak.

For question No. 2-- Yes we have a huge deficit. That deficit is from excess and irresponsible spending, not because of any lack of income from taxation.

Taxes is the citizens' money, both individual and corporate citizens, and not the government's money. People should never forget this. But, some people have, especially our politicians.

Tax relief should not have to be paid for, plain and simple.

For question No. 3-- In my opinion, both are very and somewhat equally important. As I said earlier, companies will invest here once the tax environment improves. Money flows to where it is most welcomed and respected.

Individuals benefit from a lower tax rate too. More money in their take home pay means more money to spend and save, and to reduce individual debt.

A lower tax rate is much better and way more important than simply 'cutting' taxes.

[whodoyoulike]

... A lower tax rate is much better and way more important than simply 'cutting' taxes.

Not sure I agree with everything you wrote. I have to think about it a little more.

I don't understand the above portion of your post. It seems you're making a distinction between implementing a lower tax rate and "simply cutting taxes".

[AltonKelsey]

Got real quiet in here.

Market resting finally. Lots of individual big movers up & down, but the biggies holding it up .

[AltonKelsey]

Market very nice.

[lamboguy]

Market very nice.i am waiting for the next turn date which might be coming in around the end of june into the middle of July. i should come up with the exact day within 10 days from now and i will post it. hopefully i get the direction right which i think should be down.

[AltonKelsey]

Must be boring having to wait two months.

Should we just sit by the pool and sip margaritas until then?:sleeping:

[lamboguy]

Must be boring having to wait two months.

Should we just sit by the pool and sip margaritas until then?:sleeping:
hell no, just bet the pony's, its a great time of the year

[lamboguy]

it looks like there will be more and more electric cars manufactured. it will put some type of a dent into cars and trucks that run on fossil fuels. i see one big problem, when the battery's are done they are considered to be hazardous waste filled with lithium and cobalt. some of the battery's must weigh up to 1000 pounds and it would cost money, maybe up to $2000 to dispose of them.

i was looking for a company that deals with those useless battery's and salvages some of materials that can be re used and can't find any company that fits that build. i suspect that if there is a process to to deal with this matter it might also apply to i-phones as well.


just wondered if anyone knew of any company that deals in this matter?

[barahona44]

The VIX ,which measures market volatility, reached a 24 year low today.Are investors getting a little too comfortable for their own good?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-fear-gauge-just-hit-its-lowest-level-in-24-years-2017-05-08

[PaceAdvantage]

9.71 currently...unreal...

[ReplayRandall]

9.71 currently...unreal...

Unreal= Artificially low.....Beware, the other shoe is about to drop, it's a set-up.

[whodoyoulike]

it looks like there will be more and more electric cars manufactured. it will put some type of a dent into cars and trucks that run on fossil fuels. i see one big problem, when the battery's are done they are considered to be hazardous waste filled with lithium and cobalt. some of the battery's must weigh up to 1000 pounds and it would cost money, maybe up to $2000 to dispose of them.

i was looking for a company that deals with those useless battery's and salvages some of materials that can be re used and can't find any company that fits that build. i suspect that if there is a process to to deal with this matter it might also apply to i-phones as well.


just wondered if anyone knew of any company that deals in this matter?

I really do like the way you think. Always one or two steps ahead.

Sorry, don't know of any companies but how about contacting Tesla, a big lithium company or one of the big waste disposal companies?

[lamboguy]

I really do like the way you think. Always one or two steps ahead.

Sorry, don't know of any companies but how about contacting Tesla, a big lithium company or one of the big waste disposal companies?
i am going to check for patents and company's that might have applied for a patent.

[Saratoga_Mike]

i am going to check for patents and company's that might have applied for a patent.

FMC has decent exposure to Lithium, as a source of the raw material. I assume the actual battery manufacturers will also handle the recycling, similar to the lead/acid battery model. I suppose a company like LKQ could also get involved, but the exposure would be immaterial given their size. Good luck.

[whodoyoulike]

i am going to check for patents and company's that might have applied for a patent.

Btw, thanks.

What about writing to the EPA?

I don't see why they wouldn't have considered it and would probably have that info avail. since lithium batteries have been around for several years.

I know in my jurisdiction, I've seen the local waste disposal agency sending out a flier on the proper disposal of certain products. I think they even recommend dropping off certain used and spent batteries (not all types) at Home Depot or a similar retailer.

[lamboguy]

80% of all the cobalt in the world comes from Africa. cobalt is reusable. all i am looking for is a company that that will extract the metals from the battery's and sell them, which i haven't been able to find. the company i sent you claims to have a process to extract the metal's from the battery's.

i am going to look into it further. i got nothing better to do, and i am always looking for possible scores in the equity markets that hardly anyone thinks of.

[whodoyoulike]

80% of all the cobalt in the world comes from Africa. cobalt is reusable. all i am looking for is a company that that will extract the metals from the battery's and sell them, which i haven't been able to find. the company i sent you claims to have a process to extract the metal's from the battery's.

i am going to look into it further. i got nothing better to do, and i am always looking for possible scores in the equity markets that hardly anyone thinks of.

I had a little more time to read some of the materials.

You've picked another penny stock but, I couldn't find any financials although they plan to do what you seem to want done.

[lamboguy]

I had a little more time to read some of the materials.

You've picked another penny stock but, I couldn't find any financials although they plan to do what you seem to want done.i didn't pick that company at all, i just found it.

the only thing i found out about this company is that the CEO has done numerous ventures in the mining business including one of them that i knew about called ADANACK MOLY. i happened to have played that stock and got out in time before it imploded. his name is Larry Reigh, and i don't see to much promise in his company's judging by past results.

ADANACK did have some big names that invested in that company. i am not sure if it was leveraged to much to the price of MOLY or if it was poorly managed. he had another company that went bye bye as well mining gold in China.

because of prior history i am not investing in this one. but i will keep looking because there is need for some process that can extract the cobalt from the dead batteries.

[FakeNameChanged]

it looks like there will be more and more electric cars manufactured. it will put some type of a dent into cars and trucks that run on fossil fuels. i see one big problem, when the battery's are done they are considered to be hazardous waste filled with lithium and cobalt. some of the battery's must weigh up to 1000 pounds and it would cost money, maybe up to $2000 to dispose of them.

i was looking for a company that deals with those useless battery's and salvages some of materials that can be re used and can't find any company that fits that build. i suspect that if there is a process to to deal with this matter it might also apply to i-phones as well.


just wondered if anyone knew of any company that deals in this matter?
Don't ask me for the source at the moment, but I read recently that if semi trucks go to Electric, it will have batteries in the weight range of 24-27,000 lbs. Sounds like a real boon for garbage disposal/recycling stocks. Unintended circumstances.

edit: Okay I did more research and the battery weights are in the 10-12,000 lb. range, BUT to avoid stopping halfway in a day's normal 550M haul to recharge, you'd need two sets.

[lamboguy]

Don't ask me for the source at the moment, but I read recently that if semi trucks go to Electric, it will have batteries in the weight range of 24-27,000 lbs. Sounds like a real boon for garbage disposal/recycling stocks. Unintended circumstances.i read the same thing, that is why i got interested in this space. it cost about $2 a pound to get rid of hazardous waste. that's where i am going with this. i am doing more research into the company that i pm'd you. i just don't trust the guy.

[FakeNameChanged]

i read the same thing, that is why i got interested in this space. it cost about $2 a pound to get rid of hazardous waste. that's where i am going with this. i am doing more research into the company that i pm'd you. i just don't trust the guy.???

[lamboguy]

i went to Home Depot and saw battery's for power tools made of lithium and cobalt. they weren't cheap.

60% of the worlds cobalt is mined in the Congo. that is a big number and could send shockwaves throughout the world that needs that stuff. this stuff is in its infancy stages so you got to look at the viability and needs to figure out what type of exposure you should put yourself into for these markets.

[lamboguy]

???i was looking at a company called AMERICAN MANGANESE--------AMYZF

i don't like the company though

[whodoyoulike]

???

He sent me the info a couple of days ago.

I guess Who is Who on here can get confusing.

But, I was here first (pun intended).

[plainolebill]

He sent me the info a couple of days ago.

I guess Who is Who on here can get confusing.

But, I was here first (pun intended).

Have you been talking to Horton?

[Redhook206]

Jeff Gundlach likes EEM.

[ReplayRandall]

The most hated person at a crap table----The Don't Bettor

Wednesday, May 17, 2017 Market Close


Dow 30 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?p=%5EDJI)
20,606.93
-372.82 (-1.78%)
Nasdaq (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC)
6,011.24
-158.63 (-2.57%)
S&P 500 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC)
2,357.03
-43.64 (-1.82%)

[Ocala Mike]

Don't worry! If the Trump rally is over, can the Pence rally be far behind?

[ReplayRandall]

Don't worry! If the Trump rally is over, can the Pence rally be far behind?

:lol: How can I be worried, I'm the Don't Bettor:lol:

Things are just warming up, this is an appetizer... The main course is still 3 courses away....Just hope the "game" doesn't breakup before I cash out..;)

[reckless]

:lol: How can I be worried, I'm the Don't Bettor:lol:

Things are just warming up, this is an appetizer... The main course is still 3 courses away....Just hope the "game" doesn't breakup before I cash out..;)

Randall, when did you exactly tip the Maitre'd for this fabulous table that you say you're now enjoying the appetizer, yada yada yada... with better courses ahead??

I publicly made 'buy' suggestions ... in late December 2014 for a contest that ran on this site by _________ ... about Nov. 2015 ... exactly on January 20, 2016 ... and again on November 3-4, 2016. Twice you basically called me an idiot and said the end was near and all that. Once again, I must repeat this ... you also said I'd even thank you for your advise. :lol: (I confess to needling you on this only because it's the funniest thing I ever read ... no hard feelings, truly).

I guess you weren't feasting during these so-called doom and gloom Happy Hour days during all that time even because the general stock market was way, way over $3 trillion cheaper than today. If I took your advice instead on mine ... I'd be choking at your table and would need someone to give me the Heimlich Maneuver. Now we're to believe that you're all in against the market and will be feasting any day now because of your correct analysis. :confused:

[ReplayRandall]

Randall, when did you exactly tip the Maitre'd for this fabulous table that you say you're now enjoying the appetizer, yada yada yada... with better courses ahead??

I publicly made 'buy' suggestions ... in late December 2014 for a contest that ran on this site by _________ ... about Nov. 2015 ... exactly on January 20, 2016 ... and again on November 3-4, 2016. Twice you basically called me an idiot and said the end was near and all that. Once again, I must repeat this ... you also said I'd even thank you for your advise. :lol: (I confess to needling you on this only because it's the funniest thing I ever read ... no hard feelings, truly).

I guess you weren't feasting during these so-called doom and gloom Happy Hour days during all that time even because the general stock market was way, way over $3 trillion cheaper than today. If I took your advice instead on mine ... I'd be choking at your table and would need someone to give me the Heimlich Maneuver. Now we're to believe that you're all in against the market and will be feasting any day now because of your correct analysis. :confused:
FACT- Every prediction I've made may have not come to full fruition, as no one can predict FED intervention, but I've made money EVERY time.....You've had fun for awhile playing in that 10-15 % froth, but those days have come to an end.....You got lucky while playing a bad hand all this time, good for you.

Personally, I like you Reckless and wish you nothing but the best, no matter what happens in the world of finance/gambling..;)

PS- This is what I posted in the S&P thread yesterday:

Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Options can provide insurance for downside protection of your stocks.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Then you'd better "Heavy-up" on your options, the bond market is about to go south thanks to the Fed's bond dump off it's balance sheets, stocks will fall right behind......Sign, sign, everywhere a sign

[_______]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-kraft-heinz-idUSKBN18I1SZ

I know we've all moved on but this isn't good news for a company whose primary advocate here has cited it's patents as the reason to invest. The last 10-k made it clear this was a company hemmoraging money and dependent on the grace of it's lenders.

The value of those patents just plummeted.

It's good news for innovation.

[ReplayRandall]

China just had a 'Black Monday'

REUTERS/Aly Song

Stocks plummeted across China on Monday, with 500 stocks hitting their 10% daily limit and 1,200 falling 7%, according to the South China Morning Post.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-just-had-a-black-monday-2017-7

NOT TO WORRY, THIS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON US MARKETS, AS USUAL...:lol:

[AltonKelsey]

Was gonna post last week that SFOR was looking like it wanted to lost the 12 (.012) level. Didn't bother , and now it has.

Any news on this to keep it from dying?

[AltonKelsey]

SFOR may well crack 11 today. This has been a most boring stock. Time for a little action

[Camkid77]

GooG beats, Then gets beat-up, down $32.00. WTF !:eek:

[AltonKelsey]

32 is nothing.

[AltonKelsey]

what happened to all the posts since may

[AltonKelsey]

SFOR may well crack 11 today. This has been a most boring stock. Time for a little action

Took a little while but .009 now.

[AltonKelsey]

some clown bid yest for .012 that got hit , now back to .009. looking poorly. Of course we get no updates from anyone else. Typical.

[lamboguy]

some clown bid yest for .012 that got hit , now back to .009. looking poorly. Of course we get no updates from anyone else. Typical.thank you very much for the update, i didn't know that you were so interested in this equity.

do you ever post things that people can make any money on, or are you just here to bring the bad news?


if you happened to pay attention to my prior posts you will see that i cut way back on the amount of shares that i owned. as you already know i sold plenty of this when it was almost .03. i have made plenty of money on this equity and am just sitting with the remaining shares hoping for a miracle, the very same system that i used for other stocks you might have heard of like Netflix, Amazon.com, EMC, MSFT. of course i had plenty of losers too like all of us.
again thank you very much for the update, i am sure everyone appreciates you watching this for us.

[AltonKelsey]

Actually, I recently pointed out to someone here that a trade they put on had a lot more risk in it then they indicated.

When it blew up and maximum loss was achieved, we heard nothing .

[lamboguy]

Actually, I recently pointed out to someone here that a trade they put on had a lot more risk in it then they indicated.

When it blew up and maximum loss was achieved, we heard nothing .

i am pretty decent sized bridgjumper, and when 12 seconds after ARROGATE blew a guy called me to ask if i bet on the loser, i told him i did, but i actually made a huge score to the race because i can't stand ARROGATE and never cared for his miraculous win in Dubai.

it gets tiring when someone takes pleasure in someone else's misery. yes i am sick of losing money on SFOR and still own over 1 million shares. i also own plenty of gold that was as high as $1900 that i never sold any of it.

do i wish i sold at the top? sure i do, but i was not that smart. if i knew that gold was going down to $1050 i would have glady sold my insurance that turns out i didn't need at the top and bought back at $1050. but at least i posted the bottom on gold and some people here listened to it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Didn't you also post at the time that Gold might be going to $3k, $4k or beyond?

When you post somewhat "out there" stuff like that, expect some gloating against you when the obvious happens...

[lamboguy]

Didn't you also post at the time that Gold might be going to $3k, $4k or beyond?

When you post somewhat "out there" stuff like that, expect some gloating against you when the obvious happens...i still do and now i am actually convinced that no dollar amount will ever mean anything when it comes to gold


I-N-S-U-R-A-N-C-E

and go gloating

[PaceAdvantage]

When did I gloat? I just disagreed with you...back then...and still do...

[lamboguy]

When did I gloat? I just disagreed with you...back then...and still do...i am going to give you a word to the wise now, you better get your head wrapped around precious metals. when its all said and done, gold will have value and paper currencies will be close to worthless if not completely worthless.

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

[jms62]

i am going to give you a word to the wise now, you better get your head wrapped around precious metals. when its all said and done, gold will have value and paper currencies will be close to worthless if not completely worthless.

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

Don't you think Cryptocurrencies are muting Gold's gains at this point.

[PaceAdvantage]

i am going to give you a word to the wise now, you better get your head wrapped around precious metals. when its all said and done, gold will have value and paper currencies will be close to worthless if not completely worthless.

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.If paper currency becomes worthless, I'll have a lot more serious shit to worry about then the price of gold.

I don't know what you're going to use your gold to buy if paper becomes worthless...people will be paying more for ammo, toilet paper and cigarettes then they will for any gold you might have on hand...given your nightmare scenario...

[lamboguy]

If paper currency becomes worthless, I'll have a lot more serious shit to worry about then the price of gold.

I don't know what you're going to use your gold to buy if paper becomes worthless...people will be paying more for ammo, toilet paper and cigarettes then they will for any gold you might have on hand...given your nightmare scenario...i don't think that is completely the case that we shall have. this very same scenario has played out in the world many times, usually the fiat has either been inflated or replaced with a new one. it happened in Weimar Germany back in 1921. it also happened during the Roman Empire. recently its happened in places like Argentina and Brazil.

fact is that the world didn't come to an end in either case. but if you held precious metals instead of currency you were able to get your ass out of these places and into places that were normal.

[lamboguy]

Don't you think Cryptocurrencies are muting Gold's gains at this point.that is probably the tip off that precious metals are going to be in big demand going forward.

with Bitcoin, people are flat out not trusting the government and would rather have this fraudulent currency.

people love gold, they love the way it feels and looks. its been a currency for over 5000 years now and will be for another 5000. the US dollar only has a 200 year history, most other currencies today are not much longer either.. every single time a currency has gone bad, gold stepped up to replace it.

[lamboguy]

catch this one, its trading at a 75% premium now to the underlying equity and is supposed to have a NAV of under $400 right now the way i see it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC?p=GBTC


i say buy gold and short this thing and you might have a great ride.

[AltonKelsey]

catch this one, its trading at a 75% premium now to the underlying equity and is supposed to have a NAV of under $400 right now the way i see it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC?p=GBTC


i say buy gold and short this thing and you might have a great ride.

You just catching on to this one, old news already.

PS There were all manner of stock market gurus telling folks to short this at 300, 400, 500. That working out REALLY well, huh.

PS at this point you cant short it and if you could you'd pay huge daily fees to do it. So its only theoretical, cant be done

[lamboguy]

You just catching on to this one, old news already.

PS There were all manner of stock market gurus telling folks to short this at 300, 400, 500. That working out REALLY well, huh.

PS at this point you cant short it and if you could you'd pay huge daily fees to do it. So its only theoretical, cant be donei know that and that's probably the reason why it hasn't traded at its NAV. i am comparing it to the Sprott family of precious metals funds. every time the premium of the fund took off, the underlying eventually got wrecked like what happened to silver.

i can't find a top to bitcoin yet, no clue if i could ever figure that one out. its impossible to find a top in anything that doesn't have volume. with bitcoin $3700 would have been a 1-1 and its way over that right now. there are dramatic gaps in Bitcoin that could bring it down to $2800 in a heartbeat.

[AltonKelsey]

bitcoin has volume

so thats not the reason the top is hard/impossible to figure

[n.c]

if the stock shows 20% eps growth, going forward( say 3-5 years), buy it every 4 months. Don't worry about the price you pay. Eventually stock will move 50 to 100% in 1 year. if IT SHOWS rev growth over 20% and suspect eps growth, it might still go up in this silly market, ie AMZN and CRM over the last 8 years.
Celg is one stock that i have for the next 3 years and MU for the next 12 months.

If the stock does not show any eps growth in the next 3-5 years, and it is very cheap, it might not move for 2-3 years..Gild, i do have..but no eps growth, but it is cheap. You could argue, it should be north of 100, selling at S&P AVG, AND Biotechs sell at higher price than reg market, but Gild has no growth, so it is stuck:rant:

[Saratoga_Mike]

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

Yeah, YTD gold is up about 12%, silver around 6% and platinum up a little over 8%, which averages out to a 9% or so gain for the precious metals complex. Never seen anything stronger? I bet I can find 25 different 9-month periods since 1970 that show better appreciation. I have no opinion on gold, silver or platinum (although I appreciate your fiat currency argument), but the recent move has been nothing special. Perhaps it will turn into a roaring precious metals market, but that hasn't happened yet.

[lamboguy]

Yeah, YTD gold is up about 12%, silver around 6% and platinum up a little over 8%, which averages out to a 9% or so gain for the precious metals complex. Never seen anything stronger? I bet I can find 25 different 9-month periods since 1970 that show better appreciation. I have no opinion on gold, silver or platinum (although I appreciate your fiat currency argument), but the recent move has been nothing special. Perhaps it will turn into a roaring precious metals market, but that hasn't happened yet.now i am going to bet you can never find anything stronger than gold is right here and right now.

knowing what has happened never put any money in anyone's pockets. i am telling you what is going to happen ahead of time due to the strength i see in it.

if you want to deal in recent history you will go broke chasing these things.

[Saratoga_Mike]

now i am going to bet you can never find anything stronger than gold is right here and right now.

knowing what has happened never put any money in anyone's pockets. i am telling you what is going to happen ahead of time due to the strength i see in it.

if you want to deal in recent history you will go broke chasing these things.

I have no opinion on your forecast. None. I was simply commenting on your "recent action being the strongest you've ever seen" comment. Unless you've only followed the precious metals markets for the past 9 months (I know that isn't the case), that statement was incorrect.

You do see the absurdity of the bolded statement, given "recent history" is the predicate for your long position? You can't have it both ways. Anyway, best of luck ... personally I don't care what gold does.

[lamboguy]

I have no opinion on your forecast. None. I was simply commenting on your "recent action being the strongest you've ever seen" comment. Unless you've only followed the precious metals markets for the past 9 months (I know that isn't the case), that statement was incorrect.

You do see the absurdity of the bolded statement, given "recent history" is the predicate for your long position? You can't have it both ways. Anyway, best of luck ... personally I don't care what gold does.sorry for not bringing you clarity, i like the way its acting between volume and the supply line.

[jms62]

sorry for not bringing you clarity, i like the way its acting between volume and the supply line.

I think they are shorting it on a move over 1300. One of these moves is going to stick and the shorts covering will drive it higher. One day NK is going to mouth off and we will wake up to a Gap over 1300 and it will run from there. oh wait he mouthed off today:popcorn:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Went short a bit at 2453.75 on the S&P futes into today's low volume pop. Could go higher and will add a few contracts here and there up to 2464, after which I'd toss in the towel. But I believe the intermediate trend changed to DOWN on August 10th, and still has a week or two left.....

[highnote]

Went short a bit at 2453.75 on the S&P futes into today's low volume pop. Could go higher and will add a few contracts here and there up to 2464, after which I'd toss in the towel. But I believe the intermediate trend changed to DOWN on August 10th, and still has a week or two left.....

I got a sell signal a week or ago. The sp seems to lag my indicator. I am cautious. It could go either way, but down seems the most likely direction.

[barn32]

Went short a bit at 2453.75 on the S&P futes into today's low volume pop. Could go higher and will add a few contracts here and there up to 2464, after which I'd toss in the towel. But I believe the intermediate trend changed to DOWN on August 10th, and still has a week or two left.....

I got a sell signal a week or ago. The sp seems to lag my indicator. I am cautious. It could go either way, but down seems the most likely direction.

DOW +195
/NQ +85.50
/ES +26.00

VXX -1.07
XIV +6.18

Isn't the market funny like that?

[highnote]

DOW +195
/NQ +85.50
/ES +26.00

VXX -1.07
XIV +6.18

Isn't the market funny like that?

It's a tricky game.

The signal I use is a longer term signal. A sell signal occurs When the Value Line index falls 4% from its most recent high which it did recently.

If it rises 4% from a new recent low then it is a buy signal.

By the way ... you can use other percentages if you want a more sensitive or liberal indicator.

[ReplayRandall]

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..:coffee:

[highnote]

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..:coffee:

Low volume but more buyers than sellers.
NYSE up stocks to down stocks ration was something like 5 to 1.

Holiday coming up. End of summer vacay. We will see what September brings. One of the weakest months of the year

[Parkview_Pirate]

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..:coffee:

Actually, I did notice that, which was part of the reason I went short a handle off the high yesterday. So far so good, but low volume days can also be pretty volatile when the machines get going. Will probably bank my beer money for the day (+9 handles), and look to go short again on Friday, since it looks like we might see a couple of sideways days.

"Buying the dips" when the intermediate trend is up and "selling the pops" when its down seem to be working this year, but often there are these sideways trends that take days to resolve. It must be killing the day trading market, cause I'm finding swing trades over several days are needed to make money.

I'm looking for a grind in the S&P down to about 2325 over the next few weeks, with potential bottoms at 2410 or 2365. Then we'll see how the IT is playing out.

[PaceAdvantage]

The term "handles" never sat right with me...I know it's been used forever among traders, but who started it and why? LOL

It means POINTS, right? LMAO

[Parkview_Pirate]

The term "handles" never sat right with me...I know it's been used forever among traders, but who started it and why? LOL

It means POINTS, right? LMAO

Yes, a handle is a point, and I suppose the origin goes back to the agricultural contracts, but I'm not sure of the specifics. I don't know that much of the trading lingo, but ticks and handles are a bit more clear than "point", so I sometimes use those terms. Certainly not to sound too much like a pro, 'cause I ain't one....:)

BTW - out at 2444.25, for a 9.5 handle/point profit. Don't like the action, and don't want to suffer through sideways bouncing for a couple of days. The problem is when the moves start, they're quick. Very quick.

The bear side of the trade seems awfully crowded these days, which is why I'm careful, but the action over the last few months seems "topping" in nature, and I can't help but think the Fed's rate hike in December and/or balance sheet reduction won't take some of the air out of the cushion that the declines run into.

[PaceAdvantage]

Sorry, didn't mean to rain on your post...just for whatever reason, the whole handles thing has been a major irritant to me, and I'm basically the only one...lol

Nice trading!

I've stopped posting trades, not because I haven't had any (I've had a LOT in August, and I am currently down less than half my usual risk per trade for the month)....but because it's obviously nothing more than me looking for an ego stroke when I get it right....in other words, it's pointless...lol

[barn32]

Handles and Cars are both terms for points.

I was looking for a nice follow through pop today after yesterday's reversal. Nothing major, maybe 2-10 cars on the ES, and 5-25 handles on the NQ.

When that didn't happen I was puzzled. Not only were we not up but at one point the ES was down 11.50.

That didn't really make sense to me that we would be down so much. But the interesting thing was volatility. XIV was down 4 points. It was up 6 yesterday. (VXX had a 4 for 1 reverse split today.) That just seemed like way too much. It was. (It's down 1.18 as I write this.)

But then I got to thinking—Trump must have said something. What else could it be? So I did a little digging and sure enough the petulant child said that if he doesn't get his wall then he's going to shut down the government!

Absolutely amazing. I mean it's just friggin amazing!

[PaceAdvantage]

Handles and Cars are both terms for points.Yeah, cars! Forgot about that one...that's another one! LOL

I was first exposed to all this on the elite trader forum site...

[AltonKelsey]

Not sure what you're seeing for lowest volume of 5 years s&pStocks? Source?


Not even close to that in the ES futures which is what I look at.

[AltonKelsey]

Yeah, cars! Forgot about that one...that's another one! LOL

I was first exposed to all this on the elite trader forum site...

all terms used to confuse the newbies so they wont come in and make all that easy money .

[ReplayRandall]

Investors looking elsewhere for safety from US markets?.....It appears so:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-mutualfunds-ici-idUSKCN1B323R

[AltonKelsey]

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..:coffee:

Think you got bad data

2,777,490,000

Aug 22, 20172,433.752,454.772,433.672,452.512,452.51 2,777,490,000

[ReplayRandall]

Think you got bad data

2,777,490,000

Aug 22, 20172,433.752,454.772,433.672,452.512,452.51 2,777,490,000

When I posted last night at 1:30 AM, that figure was there from the close of the market, which settled at 4:15 PM, until when I posted. If they revised the figure in the 7 hours before the market opened, I'd have no idea why they waited so long to change the volume fig......Do you think I just posted some figure out of the clear blue?

[ReplayRandall]

Think you got bad data

2,777,490,000

Aug 22, 20172,433.752,454.772,433.672,452.512,452.51 2,777,490,000

What volume fig do you see for the S&P market with 30 min. til close today?

I'm seeing Volume- 1,129,761,153

[AltonKelsey]

I dont track that figure so I have no idea how its updated.

All I know is, the ES volume was pretty normal yest and that usually means stock volume is too.

How could it be a 5 year low, out of the blue? Sanity check.

[ReplayRandall]

I dont track that figure so I have no idea how its updated.

All I know is, the ES volume was pretty normal yest and that usually means stock volume is too.

How could it be a 5 year low, out of the blue? Sanity check.

This market is indeed overpriced.....INsanity check. BTW, are you buddies with Whodo?

[AltonKelsey]

This market is indeed overpriced.....INsanity check. BTW, are you buddies with Whodo?


We're talking about VOLUME and now you bring up PRICE ?

I think we're in trouble here.

[ReplayRandall]

We're talking about VOLUME and now you bring up PRICE ?

I think we're in trouble here.

And you see no correlation between the two?..:rolleyes: We're done.

[lamboguy]

all you really have to do to win betting on equities is tag Fidelity, Wellington Capital, and State Street. if all 3 are buyers you want to be there with them, if they are sellers you want to short.

example on the June 30 filings, all 3 of those company's sold American Airlines almost at the top, since then the stock is down about 20%.

all 3 of those have to be going the same way otherwise its a no play. i happened to have looked at Delta Airlines and saw Fidelity was a seller while Wellington is a buyer? that means stay away from either side of the trade.

[hracingplyr]

Do you find out when they're buying or selling and what they're buying or selling

[Tape Reader]

I've stopped posting trades, not because I haven't had any (I've had a LOT in August, and I am currently down less than half my usual risk per trade for the month)....but because it's obviously nothing more than me looking for an ego stroke when I get it right....in other words, it's pointless...lol

Hi Boss,

I liked following your trades. I also know what you mean about pointless and an ego trip.

However, I think that there are many on this board that trade and a contest could be fun, bring hits to your site, and possibly some of the participants could share some insights.

The contest could be weekly for the greatest action. No prizes!

For me, I would like a weekly options contest with a funny-money bankroll of $10,000.

Others could add: ES only, Gold only, Stocks only or whatever. Bring your own ideas.

Anyone interested?

[lamboguy]

Do you find out when they're buying or selling and what they're buying or sellingyou find out about a week later. its worked for years even though you take the worst of the price.

right now Fidelity has sold their Delta Airlines while Wellington has bought so you wouldn't get involved in that one.

the same thing happened in the gold market in 1999 after it had dead for over 20 years and then it took off.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Handles and Cars are both terms for points.

I was looking for a nice follow through pop today after yesterday's reversal. Nothing major, maybe 2-10 cars on the ES, and 5-25 handles on the NQ.

When that didn't happen I was puzzled. Not only were we not up but at one point the ES was down 11.50.

That didn't really make sense to me that we would be down so much. But the interesting thing was volatility. XIV was down 4 points. It was up 6 yesterday. (VXX had a 4 for 1 reverse split today.) That just seemed like way too much. It was. (It's down 1.18 as I write this.)

But then I got to thinking—Trump must have said something. What else could it be? So I did a little digging and sure enough the petulant child said that if he doesn't get his wall then he's going to shut down the government!

Absolutely amazing. I mean it's just friggin amazing!

Recently I was reading up on how the Elliot Wave International weenies insist that news does not affect the market. Like the election and Brexit didn't move the meter? :D

But what is clear is that the news item tagged for the cause of a move may not be the real "root cause mover". It came out prior to the weekend that Trump was threatening a government shutdown, so one would think that would have been a mover on Monday, unless for some reason it was just taken "seriously" later on.

Personally, I was thinking the Jackson Hole news flow might get a pump and dump started, but futes now heading down. Hmmmm..... Tricky.

BTW - I thought "car" was lingo for a full S&P contract (5 times the mini). You hear the guys in the pit mention that term when the floor traders are getting involved with bigger moves.....

[jms62]

Recently I was reading up on how the Elliot Wave International weenies insist that news does not affect the market. Like the election and Brexit didn't move the meter? :D

But what is clear is that the news item tagged for the cause of a move may not be the real "root cause mover". It came out prior to the weekend that Trump was threatening a government shutdown, so one would think that would have been a mover on Monday, unless for some reason it was just taken "seriously" later on.

Personally, I was thinking the Jackson Hole news flow might get a pump and dump started, but futes now heading down. Hmmmm..... Tricky.

BTW - I thought "car" was lingo for a full S&P contract (5 times the mini). You hear the guys in the pit mention that term when the floor traders are getting involved with bigger moves.....

R.N. Elliot died a poor man. Elliot Wave with its constant renumbering after the fact is extremely hazardous to your wealth.

[jms62]

now i am going to bet you can never find anything stronger than gold is right here and right now.

knowing what has happened never put any money in anyone's pockets. i am telling you what is going to happen ahead of time due to the strength i see in it.

if you want to deal in recent history you will go broke chasing these things.

Crazy Candle in Gold today sold off 15 points in about 1 minute on break of 1300 now snuggling right back up. Any shenanigans by NK over the weekend and we could have a massive gap and go.

[lamboguy]

Crazy Candle in Gold today sold off 15 points in about 1 minute on break of 1300 now snuggling right back up. Any shenanigans by NK over the weekend and we could have a massive gap and go.the dollar just cracked 92 today and looks like its going a lot lower.

it looks like Trump doesn't care what the rest of the world wants, he wants to see the people in this country do well, and that would mean a weaker currency.

i was watching the whipsaw action today with gold, someone showed up with a large short on gold and someone was on the other side of the trade buying it right away. then they pushed price up a little.

this baby is all coiled up ready to takeoff, they are just looking for a few more victims to fall into place and then all hell will let lose.

[lamboguy]

looking further into the gold trading today, someone walked up to the window and laid down $2 million to short contracts and there was someone ready for him on the other side. that is what i call strength and signals to me that the shorts are going to be in a heap of trouble with their trades and gold is going back up to $1370 for now.

[lamboguy]

they got all these hurricanes going through the gulf and the price of oil won't go up! the dollar has been going down and the price of oil won't go up!

something wrong with oil.

[_______]

they got all these hurricanes going through the gulf and the price of oil won't go up! the dollar has been going down and the price of oil won't go up!

something wrong with oil.

Oil Refineries offline=Reduced Demand=Falling commodity price.

[jms62]

Oil Refineries offline=Reduced Demand=Falling commodity price.

Glad you play in the mutuel pools.:headbanger:

[highnote]

I've stopped posting trades, not because I haven't had any (I've had a LOT in August, and I am currently down less than half my usual risk per trade for the month)....but because it's obviously nothing more than me looking for an ego stroke when I get it right....in other words, it's pointless...lol

I learn a lot from your trades. It keeps me in tune to the market. Market sentiment is important.

The downside is that when someone posts their trades they might have to put up with ridicule from the know it alls, but that's a small price to pay. No one ever claimed that all posters here have tact. :D

[lamboguy]

I learn a lot from your trades. It keeps me in tune to the market. Market sentiment is important.

The downside is that when someone posts their trades they might have to put up with ridicule from the know it alls, but that's a small price to pay. No one ever claimed that all posters here have tact. :Dhe has tremendous discipline with his stops and the way he trades. he will outshine most. he should focus in on gold now, i am sure he would do much better than myself.

[AltonKelsey]

looking further into the gold trading today, someone walked up to the window and laid down $2 million to short contracts and there was someone ready for him on the other side. that is what i call strength and signals to me that the shorts are going to be in a heap of trouble with their trades and gold is going back up to $1370 for now.

$ 2 million wouldn't cause that. right.

In a span of one minute, gold futures contracts equaling more than 2 million ounces traded --

[n.c]

auto stock down, selling at low pe
airlines down, selling at low pe
bio down, selling at low pe

Amzn - if they enter any business, that sector tanks
Amzn news has taken down Wmt, ,cvs, hd,low, KR, cvs, Auto parts...but amzn does not make too much money. These companies make $$$$, and they go down..AMZN does not make money, but rev goes up, it goes up.




This market held up by less than 10 stocks, and they are all selling at perfection.

A 5 to 10 % correction is needed from these so called growth stocks.

[highnote]

auto stock down, selling at low pe
airlines down, selling at low pe
bio down, selling at low pe

Amzn - if they enter any business, that sector tanks
Amzn news has taken down Wmt, ,cvs, hd,low, KR, cvs, Auto parts...but amzn does not make too much money. These companies make $$$$, and they go down..AMZN does not make money, but rev goes up, it goes up.




This market held up by less than 10 stocks, and they are all selling at perfection.

A 5 to 10 % correction is needed from these so called growth stocks.

IF the internet ever goes down that would be a big hit for a company like Amazon.

Walmart will do fine off the grid because they have physical locations.

Now, if the internet goes down we're all in trouble, but still, the risk of owning Amazon is not zero.

[jms62]

the dollar just cracked 92 today and looks like its going a lot lower.

it looks like Trump doesn't care what the rest of the world wants, he wants to see the people in this country do well, and that would mean a weaker currency.

i was watching the whipsaw action today with gold, someone showed up with a large short on gold and someone was on the other side of the trade buying it right away. then they pushed price up a little.

this baby is all coiled up ready to takeoff, they are just looking for a few more victims to fall into place and then all hell will let lose.

We have lift off but Need to Hold 1307+

[lamboguy]

looking further into the gold trading today, someone walked up to the window and laid down $2 million to short contracts and there was someone ready for him on the other side. that is what i call strength and signals to me that the shorts are going to be in a heap of trouble with their trades and gold is going back up to $1370 for now.the guy that plunked down the $2mil has been taken to the woodshed for further punishment.

[AltonKelsey]

You keep insisting it was a 2 million dollar trade,

when it was a 2 million ounce trade.

[lamboguy]

You keep insisting it was a 2 million dollar trade,

when it was a 2 million ounce trade.shame on you, you are not paying attention.

the $2 million was the amount of money sent into the futures market. i don't know the exact margin requirements these days but that is all the guy put up with his own money. he might be upside down now and will probably need to come up with more money to keep his short alive.

[AltonKelsey]

shame on you, you are not paying attention.

the $2 million was the amount of money sent into the futures market. i don't know the exact margin requirements these days but that is all the guy put up with his own money. he might be upside down now and will probably need to come up with more money to keep his short alive.


if it was a 2 mil ounce trade, that means every 1 dollar move is $2 mill up /down in the trade.

if you think referring to it as a $2 million dollar trade makes any sense at all, you're in deep trouble.

" Shortly after 9:30 a.m. Friday, approximately 2 million ounces of gold were traded, which carries a value of around $2.6 billion. The sudden surge in activity came at a time when volatility in the gold market was at its lowest levels since 2005."

You're also wrong about the 2 million. That's not the margin. Not even close

[lamboguy]

why would a guy with $2.6 billion in his pocket decide to short gold at 9:00 a.m. ?

[AltonKelsey]

why would a guy with $2.6 billion in his pocket decide to short gold at 9:00 a.m. ?

I think I'm going to leave it at that, since you're not serious. Wasting my time

[_______]

Glad you play in the mutuel pools.:headbanger:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3292128-texas-refinery-shutdowns-push-company-shares-sharply-higher

This is what I was talking about in my response to Lambo, jms.

Note the second paragraph. Reduced demand is going to pressure raw material pricing until the refineries (and chemical plants which are also offline) return to service.

Production in the U.S. has moved onshore compared to the last time a hurricane hit this area. The impact on production is minimal. The impact on refined product is comparatively larger. The crack spread widens in this situation.

This is something that won't last but when Lambo noted that the hurricane wasn't driving oil prices higher, I tried to explain the economic reason that would be so.

[jms62]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3292128-texas-refinery-shutdowns-push-company-shares-sharply-higher

This is what I was talking about in my response to Lambo, jms.

Note the second paragraph. Reduced demand is going to pressure raw material pricing until the refineries (and chemical plants which are also offline) return to service.

Production in the U.S. has moved onshore compared to the last time a hurricane hit this area. The impact on production is minimal. The impact on refined product is comparatively larger. The crack spread widens in this situation.

This is something that won't last but when Lambo noted that the hurricane wasn't driving oil prices higher, I tried to explain the economic reason that would be so.

I took it you were referring to end product which should see and is seeing a spike,

[lamboguy]

you guys should take a look at what gold does now after North Korea fired a missile right over Japan a little while ago.

[Parkview_Pirate]

R.N. Elliot died a poor man. Elliot Wave with its constant renumbering after the fact is extremely hazardous to your wealth.

Well, to be fair, he developed his theory during the Great Depression - when few were building up wealth, and he retired early due to health reasons.

But yes, the wave counts are often "back fitted" to explain things, which does take away from their predictive power. And when an external news event like North Korea launching a missile over Japan (and towards the U.S.) that lands in the North Pacific, it'll shake up the wave count for sure.

And since that occurred during lock-up, it caught the futures traders off-guard too...

[reckless]

Not sure where this belongs... but to some of us, good news!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-06/fed-vice-chairman-stanley-fischer-submits-resignation

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has resigned effective in mid-October, giving President Donald Trump scope to start reshaping the leadership of the U.S. central bank sooner than expected and clouding the longer-term outlook for monetary policy.

Fischer, 73, was appointed to the Fed by President Barack Obama in 2014 to a term as vice chair that would have expired in June 2018. He cited “personal reasons” in a resignation letter Wednesday to Trump for leaving on or around Oct. 13.

[lamboguy]

in the overnight session. down about $16 so far. this may be a real good spot to make a buy if price stays down in the morning.

i was thinking that it could retrace between $1290 and $1320. sometimes it hard to get the bottom, that's why its a decent buy here.

[reckless]

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/09/dow-is-up-22-or-4000-points-since-the-november-2016-election-yesterday-another-all-time-closing-high/

And to think I gave you guys a yuuuggge opportunity to ride this wave to prosperity way before the 2016 Election of our great president, Donald J. Trump.

Some simply do not like money.

[Jeff P]

I'll preface this post by pointing out I have a somewhat limited knowledge of the market.

Not at all ashamed to admit that every few years I've shelled out a few hundred dollars for a Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription.

I've been pleased with their recommendations and service overall. (Imo, money well spent.)

But today I ran into a lifetime first -- and the reason I'm making this post.

One of the companies I bought as a result of a Motley Fool recommendation, Shopify (ticker symbol SHOP) ran aground today.

I pulled up Yahoo Finance this morning and noticed SHOP was down about 6.5% shortly after market open.

I thought this kind of odd because, at least at the time, no news stories had been posted.

About 45 minutes into the trading day I saw a video where Jim Cramer basically said "time to sellify Shopify" because of negative news posted on Twitter by Andrew Left of Cintron Research.

Cramer specifically mentioned the video at the following link:
https://t.co/QBKEIVdpTa

I watched the video... and was both amazed and disgusted by what was being said.

(I highly suggest you watch the video.)

FYI, this was the first time in my life that an analalyst -- ANY analyst -- had said anything THAT negative about ANY of the companies I've owned.

In hindsight I fully realize:

I had been periodically picking up shares based on the story... that of an ecommerce technology company with a solid software platform undergoing significant "growth." (Same thing could be said about AMZN early on.)

Apparently, Shopify's "growth" was never driven by the kind of customer base the run up in share price was based on.

If that turns out to be true, or if there is a high likelihood of that turning out to be true:

The correct thing to do is get out.

And that's exactly what I did.

Note to self:

From now on no new shares based on someone else's recommendation alone (no matter how good that someone's track record.)

I resolve to, at the very least, take 5 minutes out of my day -- and actually LOOK at the company's website.



-jp

.

[highnote]

Not at all ashamed to admit that every few years I've shelled out a few hundred dollars for a Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription..

I used to subscribe to them, too. They give solid advice. They recommended Chipotle. Why did I sell it at 45, though!?

I've thought about subscribing again. What I like about them is that it saves me a lot of time having to screen companies. I can cherry pick their recommendations which are usually solid.

[upthecreek]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/915983284814958592

[ReplayRandall]

Seen everything I needed to see from the Stock Market today.....Can't wait until Monday and Tuesday, just hope I'm not staring at a huge gap drop to start the day. If so, I'll wait a bit before playing the DON'T.....This should be a lot of fun for the next 2 weeks watching this rollercoaster ride we're about to see.

[jms62]

Seen everything I needed to see from the Stock Market today.....Can't wait until Monday and Tuesday, just hope I'm not staring at a huge gap drop to start the day. If so, I'll wait a bit before playing the DON'T.....This should be a lot of fun for the next 2 weeks watching this rollercoaster ride we're about to see.

Why play the dont? Tax reform next year means people wont be selling their winners only their losers so selling will be muted

[PICSIX]

The T2108 is reaching it's upper bound or overbought territory.

[PICSIX]

Bulkowski prediction:

[AltonKelsey]

so far the only DONT I see is DONT SHORT

[ReplayRandall]

so far the only DONT I see is DONT SHORT
Quick recap for ya.....Monday I win on the don't and lose back the profit on Tuesday. The rollercoaster ride is of the 2 week variety, as I stated in my earlier post in the thread. Other than that, you should be all caught up.....Next.

[jms62]

Quick recap for ya.....Monday I win on the don't and lose back the profit on Tuesday. The rollercoaster ride is of the 2 week variety, as I stated in my earlier post in the thread. Other than that, you should be all caught up.....Next.

Today had the look of a Bull Trap. Fed minutes all but guaranteed a hike in December yet market and Gold shrugged it off. One thing I can tell you once we get verdict on Tax reform the market will TANK. If it doesnt happen this year I will be net short going into next year.

[ReplayRandall]

Today had the look of a Bull Trap. Fed minutes all but guaranteed a hike in December yet market and Gold shrugged it off. One thing I can tell you once we get verdict Tax reform the market will TANK. If it doesnt happen this year I will be net short going into next year.

Concise and to the point, of which I agree..:ThmbUp:

[sour grapes]

youve been calling a top from 5000 pts ago
you lack any credibility

[AltonKelsey]

youve been calling a top from 5000 pts ago
you lack any credibility

Some folks are just prescient, so early it looks like wrong.

[AltonKelsey]

Here we are , on a quiet Friday the 13th, at the High of the Week.

Timing is everything.

[ReplayRandall]

This Is The Dollar's Worst Year Since 1986

Sooner or later it's ALL going to collapse, there is no remedy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/dollars-worst-year-plaza-accord

[lamboguy]

Here we are , on a quiet Friday the 13th, at the High of the Week.

Timing is everything.i guess you never looked at your favorite stock SFOR today

[jms62]

This Is The Dollar's Worst Year Since 1986

Sooner or later it's ALL going to collapse, there is no remedy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/dollars-worst-year-plaza-accord

Had a prof that would say

“ Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”

[pandy]

I'll preface this post by pointing out I have a somewhat limited knowledge of the market.

Not at all ashamed to admit that every few years I've shelled out a few hundred dollars for a Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription.

I've been pleased with their recommendations and service overall. (Imo, money well spent.)

But today I ran into a lifetime first -- and the reason I'm making this post.

One of the companies I bought as a result of a Motley Fool recommendation, Shopify (ticker symbol SHOP) ran aground today.

I pulled up Yahoo Finance this morning and noticed SHOP was down about 6.5% shortly after market open.

I thought this kind of odd because, at least at the time, no news stories had been posted.

About 45 minutes into the trading day I saw a video where Jim Cramer basically said "time to sellify Shopify" because of negative news posted on Twitter by Andrew Left of Cintron Research.

Cramer specifically mentioned the video at the following link:
https://t.co/QBKEIVdpTa

I watched the video... and was both amazed and disgusted by what was being said.

(I highly suggest you watch the video.)

FYI, this was the first time in my life that an analalyst -- ANY analyst -- had said anything THAT negative about ANY of the companies I've owned.

In hindsight I fully realize:

I had been periodically picking up shares based on the story... that of an ecommerce technology company with a solid software platform undergoing significant "growth." (Same thing could be said about AMZN early on.)

Apparently, Shopify's "growth" was never driven by the kind of customer base the run up in share price was based on.

If that turns out to be true, or if there is a high likelihood of that turning out to be true:

The correct thing to do is get out.

And that's exactly what I did.

Note to self:

From now on no new shares based on someone else's recommendation alone (no matter how good that someone's track record.)

I resolve to, at the very least, take 5 minutes out of my day -- and actually LOOK at the company's website.



-jp

.

When you said they ran aground, I thought you meant Shopify imploded. The stock is trading at $94 and was $37 a year ago. From what I read, the guy who knocked Shopify, Andrew Left, isn't always right, no pun intended.

[AltonKelsey]

i guess you never looked at your favorite stock SFOR today

Wrong again.

[lamboguy]

NFLX- Netflcks is one amazing stock. i met Wayne Rodgers, Trapper from Mash, about 5 years ago and he gave me the stock around $26 and naturally i didn't listen.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down 5.4% today

[AltonKelsey]

That 15 point overnight ES move is what now passes for a crash. And ya'll slept right through it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Buy the dips baby...until it doesn't work anymore...:lol:

[Jeff P]

When you said they ran aground, I thought you meant Shopify imploded. The stock is trading at $94 and was $37 a year ago. From what I read, the guy who knocked Shopify, Andrew Left, isn't always right, no pun intended.

I guess it depends how you define ran aground.

Andrew Left has a decent enough track record with his short calls.... Valeant (VRX) being the one he is probably most known for.

My purchase decision for SHOP was based on:

a. Strong growth prospects for the sector (the cloud slash e commerce.)

b. Strong performance of the company vs. competition within the sector.

c. Impeccable (enough) management and ethos.

FYI, prior to making the initial purchase I did some due diligence... I looked at financial statements which clearly showed the kind of growth that Tom Gardner at The Motley Fool had written about. (Which cemented the idea in my head that Shopify has a great product and is well positioned to take advantage of a growing sector.)

Ok. That checks the boxes for items a and b above.

However, for item c, I was relying on The Motley Fool to have done a better job in the way of due diligence than they did.

After watching the video where Andrew Left suggested the FTC get involved, I went to the Shopify site and saw the "You too can be a millionaire" testimonials he was talking about.

At that point I was having serious enough doubts about the box for item c above being checked - that I decided to get out.

Who knows? Andrew Left comes off (to me) as a sensationalist and SHOP might not be broken after all. It may well have plenty of upside from here.

But until I see better evidence of item c above: I'm out.

Besides, there are plenty of other companies that check boxes a, b, and c above -- that (hopefully) have potential for decent returns of their own.

As to your point Bob, Tom Gardner of The Motley Fool first recommended SHOP back on July 15, 2016 when it was trading for $32 a share. (At today's close it was was $98 a share.)

Why in the hell would anybody in their right mind be complaining about that? :lol:



-jp

.

[AltonKelsey]

on 10/11 he says so far the only DONT I see is DONT SHORT

Do I get a cookie?

And what's this rep power of only 2? I know folks are ingrates , but damn

[sour grapes]

the guy is a genius,only just early:eek::lol:

[AltonKelsey]

the guy is a genius,only just early:eek::lol:


You only have a rep power of 1.

I think lower is better here.

[ReplayRandall]

the guy is a genius,only just early:eek::lol:

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

[thaskalos]

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....
I hope you haven't been pressing your stock-market bets over the last couple of years.

[AltonKelsey]

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

I am 100% unwavering in acknowledging that you are 100% unwavering.

Sadly , that 100% has nothing do with what will happen, even if it does.

Don't feel bad, the genii over at ZeroHedge have been predicting the apocalypse for a decade, and have been 150% (adjusted for inflation) wrong.

[reckless]

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

Are you buying put options right now?

Are you shorting stocks or ETFs right now??

Have you been buying put options or shorting since before the historic and sensational buy opportunity call generously provided by a member of PA who shall remain nameless for fear of having another idiot say that said poster has a swelled head... :lol:

[_______]

Barron’s has an article today suggesting that Interactive Brokers (IBKR) will prosper in today’s low volatility market but really thrive when normal volatility returns.

They also suggest that IBKR is getting ready to challenge the banking industry the same way they have disrupted brokerages.

This isn’t a stock that meets all the rules I have set for an investment but I do like companies run by entrepreneur/founders and Thomas Petterffy has certainly earned my respect. It closed at 49.39 Friday and there is often a pop the Monday after a Barron’s mention.

I don’t expect I’ll actually invest anytime soon but have added this to my watch list. Really just leaving a mark of the price when the idea came to my attention.

[BaffertsWig]

Bitcoin has almost doubled in the last few months. How high will it go?

[AltonKelsey]

"Bitcoin has almost doubled in the last few months. How high will it go? "

This high

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-enron-in-the-making-saudi-prince-alwaleed-2017-10-23

[AltonKelsey]

All this pin action and no commentary? Ya'll must be banking large!

[reckless]

All this pin action and no commentary? Ya'll must be banking large!

Actually some of us are in fact 'banking large', alton.

But there are some on here who still called for a market meltdown ... that it was 'imminent'... and that he just couldn't 'wait for Monday or Tuesday' ... or idiocy to that affect.

All predicted 2-3 weeks before a few more record highs came our way, again.

Some people just hate making money, whatever day of the week it is.

[PaceAdvantage]

I've been getting killed, actually...lost my entire profit for the year (trading ES futures) over the last couple of weeks...I've been running so well since Feb 2016, this was bound to happen...I'm not even worried at this point.

[AltonKelsey]

Funny, I've been an IBKR client for over 15 years, and have followed the ebbs and flows since then . Actually bought the IPO, and sold quickly.

Was going to comment that the Barrons story was nothing new, but figured the story was intact, so why put a bash on it. Stocks up big again, since that article.

[_______]

Funny, I've been an IBKR client for over 15 years, and have followed the ebbs and flows since then . Actually bought the IPO, and sold quickly.

Was going to comment that the Barrons story was nothing new, but figured the story was intact, so why put a bash on it. Stocks up big again, since that article.

Up nearly 10% since the story and it really didn’t pop the Monday after. Anyone who wanted could have come in for pennies over Friday’s close all day last Monday. I was surprised it didn’t get much immediate lift off that story but it’s certainly run since.

[lamboguy]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/facebook-beats-big-shares-stumble-ceo-comments

the part about investing in security is the reason why you want to get your heads wrapped around SFOR and a few other's that i am going for lately.

[_______]

Interesting article summarizing the variety of investor biases than can hurt portfolio return:



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4124320-investor-biases-aware-boost-returns

[Parkview_Pirate]

I've been getting killed, actually...lost my entire profit for the year (trading ES futures) over the last couple of weeks...I've been running so well since Feb 2016, this was bound to happen...I'm not even worried at this point.

I feel your pain. Hope you're getting some of back the last week, if on the short side.

Took it in the shorts myself trying to short the pump that began on 9/27. Got a bit of that back with one short and one long trade in the past five days, but it's getting pretty whippy out there, and requires constant babysitting, at least on the /ES.

It's my opinion that much of the market gains since the election had to do with the dollar going south, but that correlation ended in mid-Sep. Today's move in the DX down is propping the markets up today for sure.

VIX now creeping up, and lots of parts moving seem to indicate a major move coming up. The pillar stocks that have been holding up the market now showing weakness. The Saudi "reorg" not getting the attention it deserves, as what's going on over in the ME will have a big effect on US. It's surely not your granddaddy's market, as the Fed's (and other Central Banks) experiment in massive printing getting closer to the great unwind. Rate hike next month, unfavorable tax plan on deck Thurs, and the Fed reducing its balance sheet starting soon all headwinds for equities.

But, I've been wrong before. In the spirit of RR's predictions, here's what I think will happen:

Short Term (next 7 days in /ES) - trend up from here (2575) to 2581, retrace to 2555, pump and new high of 2612, then rolling over.

Medium Term (next three months) - down to 2450 by mid-Dec, down to 2240 by mid Jan, down to 2050-2075 by mid Feb. Descent could go quicker with war.

Long Term (next three years) - bumpy, we'll find out to what extent the Fed can control things. Chinese introducing the petroyuan will have huge long-term effects for US. Wouldn't be surprised if Trump's major announcement has something to do with phasing out the petrodollar in favor of basket of currencies to keep the Chinese and Russkies happy. Meanwhile, it'll become more clear the mainstream's story on the economy and reality are not in sync. Unemployment goes up, stagflation sets in, health care continues to be a major problem, and GDP tanks. While I lean towards the Great Deflation Monster causing equities to crash, we can't rule out more printing games keeping valuations artificially propped up. Amazon may still be $1139 a share, but if gas is $8 a gallon, and a loaf of bread $6, will any of us feel the wealth?

[PaceAdvantage]

I've gotten about 20-25% of it back thus far (depending on how today finishes).

It's going to be a bit of an uphill battle though...although with the VIX moving up, it could come back quickly if I'm on the right side of things...if not...:eek:

[Parkview_Pirate]

I've gotten about 20-25% of it back thus far (depending on how today finishes).

It's going to be a bit of an uphill battle though...although with the VIX moving up, it could come back quickly if I'm on the right side of things...if not...:eek:

Playing the short side is riskier - the time frames of the dips are much more compressed. Replacing a strategy of BTFD with "sell the rip" is easier said than done.

Didn't quite get to 2581, as the /ES now down 10. Feel good about getting out of my long at 2577.75 earlier today - turns out that was about 1/2 point below the daytime top.

Lots of risk over the next few days, with Trump teasing us like a schoolgirl getting a new car for her birthday with his "major announcement" soon (N. Korea?), the tax plan vote in the House, and the holiday week coming up. I may go long if I can get in around 2555 and it looking like a short term bottom. Keeping an eye on metals, treasuries and DXY for hints about where the dollar goes.

Short Term Trend: down, but looking for a bounce up around 2555, or a bounce down off 2481. Next top after a bounce could be around 2612, but it could run higher or collapse anytime after reaching 2595....

Medium Term Trend: up, break below about 2502 on the /ES confirms change.

Long Term Trend: up, break below about 2380 on the /ES confirms change.

[Parkview_Pirate]

...Short Term Trend: down, but looking for a bounce up around 2555, or a bounce down off 2481. Next top after a bounce could be around 2612, but it could run higher or collapse anytime after reaching 2595....

Medium Term Trend: up, break below about 2502 on the /ES confirms change.

Long Term Trend: up, break below about 2380 on the /ES confirms change.

So far, so good. Made some decent coin on the first pump off the 2555.50 low, getting my best fill at 2555.75. That was total luck. Out at 2584, back in at 2572 and back out at 2580. Have made a couple of scalps long and short for beer money since then, and missed the nice gap and go on Tuesday from 2581 to 2598. Looking for one more push up, then the short term trend changes to down. Did some more chart work, and adjusted the near-term target a smidge higher. Totally flat right now.

Short Term Trend: Up, should top around 2615.50 Depending on the action, if a bounce next week off about 2600 starts to go higher, then targets are off the table.

Medium Term Trend: up, break below about 2502 on the /ES confirms change.

Long Term Trend: up, break below about 2380 on the /ES confirms change. Note, the long term chart shows the increasing steepness of the bullish moves, but doesn't show that parabolic blowoff top yet. Don't want to be short in front of that move....:)

[lamboguy]

this is part of the reason i have my head wrapped around recycling cobalt and lithium batteries. gotta think this will be big going forward.https://www.apple.com/ca/environment/resources/

[highnote]

this is part of the reason i have my head wrapped around recycling cobalt and lithium batteries. gotta think this will be big going forward.https://www.apple.com/ca/environment/resources/

Also, use of fossil fuels in power generation is decreasing. GE is laying off 12,000 employees in their electrical generation department because they aren't selling as many fossil fuel power equipment and services.

Countries are switching to cleaner, renewable energy sources.

Things like wind turbines still need a lot of copper and solar still need a lot of copper.

Solar requires about 4 times as much copper as coal power and solar requires about 2 and half times as much.

As fossil fuel power plants are phased and replaced by cleaner power, it is said that about $7.5 trillion will be invested by 2040 and a lot of the cost will be in copper.

Then there are electric vehicles. Copper will be used in electric motors and wiring.

[lamboguy]

Also, use of fossil fuels in power generation is decreasing. GE is laying off 12,000 employees in their electrical generation department because they aren't selling as many fossil fuel power equipment and services.

Countries are switching to cleaner, renewable energy sources.

Things like wind turbines still need a lot of copper and solar still need a lot of copper.

Solar requires about 4 times as much copper as coal power and solar requires about 2 and half times as much.

As fossil fuel power plants are phased and replaced by cleaner power, it is said that about $7.5 trillion will be invested by 2040 and a lot of the cost will be in copper.

Then there are electric vehicles. Copper will be used in electric motors and wiring.i have been watching copper lately and it is close to its high from 6 years ago. its good to speculate on things that might happen going into the future.

the other area that i happen to like are the devices that can monitor medical patients while they are at home. there are things that are in the developing stages now that monitor people with bad hearts and the device is placed inside the body and can ring a bell when a person is at high risk of a blood clot or a heart attack. i like anything to do with preventive medicine, because once you have the problem its expensive to treat and often times the treatment doesn't work. there has to be something done for the healthcare system because today healthcare providers and insurance company's are nothing short of stick up artists.

[lamboguy]

you know just to be in line with what i am seeing these days, the next generation will be so much different than us. scaleability is out, network effect is in. decentralization is the disruptive concept that tech provides. rental society-control trumps ownership for consumers now (cars becoming a service industry). as far as money goes, fiat currency replaced gold which made money a sovereign undemocratic thing. now Crypto threatens to remove borders for money.

my investments going forward will all be shorts. i plan to short the worldwide hotel industry because they are starting to look like retail centers these days and home owner incentives seem to be going away now with new tax laws. and my major play will be to bet against US Shale because it looks like the Saudi]s will do anything they can do to ice it, and some of the shale company's have very rotten looking balance sheets and will not be able to come close to servicing their debt.

[reckless]

you know just to be in line with what i am seeing these days, the next generation will be so much different than us. scaleability is out, network effect is in. decentralization is the disruptive concept that tech provides. rental society-control trumps ownership for consumers now (cars becoming a service industry). as far as money goes, fiat currency replaced gold which made money a sovereign undemocratic thing. now Crypto threatens to remove borders for money.

my investments going forward will all be shorts. i plan to short the worldwide hotel industry because they are starting to look like retail centers these days and home owner incentives seem to be going away now with new tax laws. and my major play will be to bet against US Shale because it looks like the Saudi]s will do anything they can do to ice it, and some of the shale company's have very rotten looking balance sheets and will not be able to come close to servicing their debt.

You make some valid points lambo.

Good luck in any trade you make... just tie on tight since the volatility will be tremendous, IMO.

[reckless]

Just my gut feeling that we're very close to the end of this initial record-breaking run-up.

For the first time since I released my public buy call in November 2016 that I actually sold some shares today in two companies. I did because of some of today's news I heard and saw didn't jive right by me.

First the news came out was about McCain who is going to Walter Reed; he might be able to vote. Then Marco Rubio is reported that maybe now he is a no vote on the Tax Reform bill, and this afternoon I hear that Paul Ryan resigned, which was refuted but that smelled all around.

Just an opinion on these three events -- the GOP is ef-ing Trump over and the Tax Bill won't get passed and signed as promised. Again, just my guess.

I have never believed that things happen by chance and now all these things begin happening just days after the media said the Tax bill was a done deal, let's break out the champagne ... yikes.

And --this is a barometer I respect-- the Dow transports also dropped big today. Very negative sign.

Once more, this is how I see it; I'm no expert. Plus, I am always in the minority. I just didn't like today's market from my corner of the world. It can all change next week. Good luck.

[Jeff P]

re: The tax bill --

Found an article on The Motley Fool site that goes on to say the Senate version of the Fed Tax Bill contains a FIFO provision that would negatively impact individual investors.

Motley Fool Staff Dec 14, 2017 at 11:17AM
Our Take: The New Tax Bill Is Bad for Individual Investors. Act Now to Help:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/14/our-take-the-new-tax-bill-is-bad-for-individual-in.aspx

What you need to know
Both the Senate and the House have passed their own versions of the biggest tax changes of the last 30 years, and lawmakers are making progress on a joint bill through their committee work (reports from yesterday indicate they have a tentative deal). There is one particular part of the Senate bill that could disadvantage you as an individual investor if it makes it through to a vote -- the Mandatory FIFO Proposal.

Here is a brief primer on what this means and why it's important.

FIFO stands for "First-In-First-Out." It is a method for identifying specific tax lots when you have made your total investment over time -- using common strategies like dollar-cost averaging, dividend reinvestment plans, buying in thirds, or simply making annual lump sum contributions.

(By the way, senators, many of your constituents invest this way.)

The Senate's version proposes that all dispositions -- including sales, donations, and gifts of investments -- be on a first-in-first-out basis (FIFO). This means, if you want to sell, you must sell the oldest lot, which in all likelihood (especially after a very healthy 9-year bull market) has the lowest cost basis and the highest embedded capital gains. The proposal eliminates investor choice.

What does no choice look like?
Here's an example that might be common to Motley Fool investors.

Say you own 200 shares of Amazon that you purchased twice during the last five years: 100 shares at $300 per share in 2013, and another 100 shares at $700 per share in 2016. If you sell 100 shares at $1,100, then under the Senate proposal you would have to designate the older shares to sell and pay capital gains taxes on $800 [per share] instead of on $400 [per share].

Simply put, you wouldn't have the option to choose, for yourself and your family, which of your own shares of stock to sell!

Under current tax rules, individual investors have the choice of which tax lots to dispose of. This allows for such tax planning strategies as tax-loss harvesting and donating appreciated stock to charities.

It also provides individual investors the flexibility to create sensible financial plans that correspond to their circumstances by having the flexibility to take on a higher tax burden when the situation affords it and being more tax sensitive when times are tougher.

These tax-management strategies would be severely limited in the new tax world, and that could leave you and charities worse off.

Who could this hurt?
In a word: You.



-jp

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