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ReplayRandall
10-02-2016, 12:28 AM
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

lamboguy
10-02-2016, 04:40 AM
i just invested in 2 gold mining stocks and plan to stay in them whether the market goes up or tanks. if these 2 depreciate by 20% i am out and will look for a new entry. i like MUX McEwen Nining and NGD New Gold. both stocks have recently received a haircut. i am looking for triples or more in these 2 within 15 months.

forced89
10-02-2016, 09:12 AM
Somewhat where I am too. The only difference is that I own gold and silver bullion coins instead of gold mining stocks. My favorite is the $1 Silver Mexican Libertad. I only have one stock left, EPM which is a small oil company with a bunch of cash in the bank.

chadk66
10-02-2016, 09:14 AM
bubble is going to burst really soon. we desperately need another great depression to help right the ship.

lamboguy
10-02-2016, 09:25 AM
Somewhat where I am too. The only difference is that I own gold and silver bullion coins instead of gold mining stocks. My favorite is the $1 Silver Mexican Libertad. I only have one stock left, EPM which is a small oil company with a bunch of cash in the bank.i like US eagles, i can buy them for about $2 over spot. i get the sealed green monster boxes from the mint.

Tor Ekman
10-02-2016, 09:28 AM
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.

reckless
10-02-2016, 11:00 AM
I know there is lots of doom and gloom out there but what is the reason for all this, besides panic?

How is it so certain that the stock market is going to drop 40-50 per cent? What would cause the market to drop so much, so soon?

Plus, some of these small under capitalized gold and silver mining stocks that have been mentioned as some sort of hedge will get absolutely destroyed if the Dow or S & P 500 takes a 40-50 cent hit.

If's OK if one is worried, I get it. Then take some off the table. It's your money to preserve and grow to use for a future date. But I don't see any reason for a 50 percent correction at this time, imo.

barn32
10-02-2016, 11:01 AM
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312 I predict just the opposite. I guess we'll find out who's right.

Saratoga_Mike
10-02-2016, 11:11 AM
RR - are you a technician, fundamentalist or some combo thereof? Please flush out your call more. Thanks.

pandy
10-02-2016, 12:14 PM
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.

That sounds like a good idea. Better to be safe than sorry.

PICSIX
10-02-2016, 01:08 PM
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.

Very nice :ThmbUp:

classhandicapper
10-02-2016, 01:50 PM
I am normally 100% invested in stocks other than money I need for living and emergencies. The only time I have extra cash is if I recently recently sold something or accumulated some savings and didn't have any new good investment ideas yet. I have even been on margin up to about 30%. This bullish strategy goes all the way back to the late 80s with only a few more conservative stances.

Right now 100% of my IRA and 401K funds are in cash except for a couple of small positions in gold mines and a physical gold/silver security. My non retirement account has 1 stock and the rest in cash and the same gold mines.

I'm a patient man. I invest for the very long term. I am more than willing to miss the top to avoid the debacle I anticipate. The timing is just a matter of how much the Fed and other central banks are willing to print, whether they are willing to take rates even more negative, and whether they are going to eventually buy stocks directly like they are in some places.

Valuist
10-02-2016, 03:30 PM
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

I like the call. You will be right. It's just a matter of when.

whodoyoulike
10-02-2016, 03:40 PM
I know there is lots of doom and gloom out there but what is the reason for all this, besides panic?

How is it so certain that the stock market is going to drop 40-50 per cent? What would cause the market to drop so much, so soon?

Plus, some of these small under capitalized gold and silver mining stocks that have been mentioned as some sort of hedge will get absolutely destroyed if the Dow or S & P 500 takes a 40-50 cent hit.

If's OK if one is worried, I get it. Then take some off the table. It's your money to preserve and grow to use for a future date. But I don't see any reason for a 50 percent correction at this time, imo.

I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.

_______
10-02-2016, 03:43 PM
I like the call. You will be right. It's just a matter of when.

If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

Robert Fischer
10-02-2016, 04:40 PM
going to have to put nets around all the tall office buildings

delayjf
10-03-2016, 04:33 PM
All this gold, I'm buy a parrot, getting my crew together and yo-ho, yo-ho the pirates life for me. :cool:

whodoyoulike
10-03-2016, 05:22 PM
I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.

I think J Dimon reads this site for ideas. If he is reading today's ... You're Welcome.

... "They have plenty of capital, plenty of liquidity," Dimon said during an telephone interview on CNBC's "Power Lunch" program. "We want all these banks to get through because it's better for everybody."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-there-is-no-reason-deutsche-bank-should-not-get-over-its-problems.html

Valuist
10-03-2016, 06:17 PM
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

OK, smart ass, here's the parameter: 18 months.

classhandicapper
10-03-2016, 07:24 PM
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

A lot depends on your investment style.

If you are a day trader you have to be right within hours.

If you are at the other end of the spectrum (like me), several years is fine.

Then there is everything else in between.

Also, there could very well be new information that will cause me to take a less conservative stance.

barahona44
10-03-2016, 07:27 PM
Don't those "The World is coming to an end" sandwich boards hurt your shoulders after a while? :)

sammy the sage
10-03-2016, 07:33 PM
Replay Randle or Barn...either one could be right...the CORRUPT FED will determine...

Cheap money continues...Japan scenario....market keeps UP...artificially...like the LAST decade......not cheap...start raising rates...crashes....

not connected enough to know...and even those that are connected...so they THINK...some will GET sunk...

Tape Reader
10-03-2016, 09:27 PM
When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

If it’s Hillary, anyone that has been following the market will know that “This will be the day that the music died”. Apologies to Don McLean.

All of Wall St. is so conditioned to “SELL!” when rates move higher. Makes no difference economically, they know this has been a Fed induced rally and the “music” of musical chairs has stopped.

Once the election is over, the jig is up.

P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.

ReplayRandall
10-03-2016, 10:55 PM
P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.

The OP of this thread prefers it stays here....;)

Parkview_Pirate
10-04-2016, 07:51 AM
While I'm as bearish as the next person who understands basic arithmetic, I'm a bit skeptical the markets dive prior to the election unless TPTB would prefer Trump in the White House. The last big swoon in 2008/2009 seemed to correlate with the Fed drawing down excess liquidity. Not sure if they still have that kind of juice, but must assume so until proven otherwise. The global aspect and central bank coordination makes this bubble a bit different than ones in the past.

The doomsday market plunge view seems to be an awfully crowded trade as well, where as in the summer of 2008 there were fewer bears sounding the alarm.

With a due respect to RR, I'd anticipate the next plunge in the markets to coincide with a major war - which IMHO, would occur within 15 minutes or so of The Hag being sworn in....

Saratoga_Mike
10-04-2016, 11:11 AM
When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

.

How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."

barn32
10-04-2016, 12:28 PM
How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

classhandicapper
10-04-2016, 12:34 PM
I added a little to my gold mining shares this morning.

AndyC
10-04-2016, 03:03 PM
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?

barahona44
10-04-2016, 04:12 PM
I can see the market grinding to a 15 to 20 percent drop over the next year.Remember, it's been essentially flat (just 1 % higher) than it was 20 months ago, so that has already cooled off some of the excessive speculation.IMHO, 40 to 50 percent drops are unlikely .Negative predictions are always given more weight than positive ones.Nostradamus is taken more seriously than Pollyanna.Must be a psychological thang

Saratoga_Mike
10-04-2016, 04:14 PM
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

The beauty of Trump is he surrounds himself with the best people. Great advisors. Great managers. It's really great. Therefore, if Mr. Trump defers to Carl Icahn on such matters, he must be the man to listen to on such matters. Many would object by saying, "Mr. Icahn isn't really a macro investor," but I trust Mr. Trump is well aware of this.

highnote
10-04-2016, 06:22 PM
My prediction is that the is S&P will hit a high somewhere between 2367 and 2474 between now and January 12. That is a 10% to 15% gain over the July 14, 2016 close of 2152.

A major "buy" indicator was triggered on July 8 when the Up Volume to Down Volume ratio on the NYSE exceeded 9 to 1. Two days later another "buy" indicator was triggered when the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio on the NYSE exceeded 2 to 1. This indicator is very rare, but is an extremely powerful momentum indicator. It happened 11 times from 1953 to 1993, but every time the market rose by nearly 10% over the next 6 months. The average gain was 15%. (I will calculate from 1993 to present and see if it holds true.)

The S&P closed today at 2150 -- right where it was back on July 12. Considering that September is one of the weakest months of the year. The market has plenty of upside.

The presidential election is a big factor. The market traditionally does better under democratic presidents than republicans. If Clinton wins the market should continue higher. Probably because the Fed will keep interest rates low and continue its policy of quantitative easing.

If Trump wins then all bets are off. :confused:

highnote
10-04-2016, 07:01 PM
There was a long break from 1993 to 2009 where the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio over a 10 day period never triggered the buy signal by hitting 2 to 1.

On January 8, 2009 it hit 1.96 to 1 -- close enough. The S&P was at 1289. Six months later, on July 8 the S&P was at 2195. Nice gain.

On July 24 the ratio hit 2.34 to 1 and the S&P was at 2172. Six months later on January 24 the S&P hit 2575. A 400 point gain. Not bad.

On February 17, 2014 the ratio hit 1.97 to 1. Again, close enough. Six months later the S&P was at 1971 -- a 100 point gain.

On July 12, 2016 the ratio was 2.19 to 1 and the S&P was at 2152. Where will it be on January 12, 2017?

Historically, the gain has been about 5% after 3 months. So by Oct 15 I would not be surprised to see the S&P at 2259 -- up about 100 points.

Parkview_Pirate
10-04-2016, 11:21 PM
Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?

I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.

The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.

The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.

Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.

ReplayRandall
10-04-2016, 11:32 PM
I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.

The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.

The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.

Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.

Not bad Parkview, not bad at all......Solid post..:ThmbUp:

pandy
10-05-2016, 09:13 AM
I understand the technical analysis, and the artificial boosting of the markets with quantitative easing and low interest rates. But, I noticed that no one in this thread mentioned corporate profits. Is growth in China, India, South America, and other emerging economies, going to stay strong enough to support U.S. corporations in the next year or so?

delayjf
10-10-2016, 12:30 PM
Saw this an thought it applied here. I'm no economist, but I'm starting to see businesses and restaurants closing here in my hometown reminds me of 2008.

http://www.newsmax.com/Economy/bankruptcy-restaurant-Wolf-Richter-economy/2016/10/10/id/752515/

ReplayRandall
10-31-2016, 08:28 PM
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189

VigorsTheGrey
10-31-2016, 09:00 PM
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189

Don't be too hard on yourself Randall, the drop may still arrive and like you say better 6 months too early than 1 minute late..Gerald Celente of Trends Journal has been predicting a collapse for at least 5 long years now to no avail so go figure....I think the market is sideways or lower now for awhile so what is the point of staying in now? But as long as the globe is awash in oil like it is now and they can print up money out of thin air like they do at the FED, the market ought to be able to stay sideways for awhile baring the unforseen at least....but obviously I'm no expert so who really knows.....?

highnote
10-31-2016, 10:31 PM
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189


I'm 50% in cash, but will look to make a move one way or another after the election.

If Clinton wins the market should go higher. If Trump wins we will be in uncharted waters. Anything could happen.

PICSIX
11-01-2016, 07:09 AM
I'm 50% in cash, but will look to make a move one way or another after the election.

If Clinton wins the market should go higher. If Trump wins we will be in uncharted waters. Anything could happen.

When Trump wins just buy the dip :)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

Tape Reader
11-01-2016, 10:08 AM
When Trump wins just buy the dip :)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

I agree. But I think the “dip” may be 2000 points in the Dow.

ReplayRandall
11-01-2016, 02:26 PM
I agree. But I think the “dip” may be 2000 points in the Dow.
And as of 2:30 PM EST, the stock market finally starts the plunge....




S&P 500 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC)
2,100.46
-25.69 (-1.21 %)
Dow 30 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?p=^DJI)
17,954.71
-187.71 (-1.03 %)
Nasdaq (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=^IXIC)
5,118.71
-70.42 (-1.36 %)

barahona44
11-01-2016, 04:29 PM
And as of 2:30 PM EST, the stock market finally starts the plunge....




S&P 500 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC)
2,100.46
-25.69 (-1.21 %)
Dow 30 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?p=^DJI)
17,954.71
-187.71 (-1.03 %)
Nasdaq (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=^IXIC)
5,118.71
-70.42 (-1.36 %)

Today's close

S&P. 2111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)
Dow. 18037.10 -105.32 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq. 5153.58 -35.56. (-0.69%)

Looks like the Apocalypse took an afternoon nap. :)

ReplayRandall
11-01-2016, 05:09 PM
Today's close

S&P. 2111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)
Dow. 18037.10 -105.32 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq. 5153.58 -35.56. (-0.69%)

Looks like the Apocalypse took an afternoon nap. :)

That's what happens when "Dips" buy the dips....Used to be a good strategy, not anymore...:cool:

thaskalos
11-02-2016, 02:19 AM
When ReplayRandall talks stocks...even E. F. Hutton listens. :)

reckless
11-02-2016, 09:00 AM
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

forced89
11-02-2016, 09:03 AM
I'm 100% in a Low Duration Bond Fund, Gold, Silver and my horses. I believe that the probability of a big move down is greater than a big move up during the next 12 months.

Valuist
11-02-2016, 12:56 PM
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

If Trump wins, a company like Gilead could skyrocket. After Hillary's comments against biotech and big pharma in mid 2015, those stocks all took a pretty severe haircut.

PaceAdvantage
11-02-2016, 02:27 PM
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investingI disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living... :lol: :bang:

Secondbest
11-02-2016, 05:37 PM
I disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living... :lol: :bang:
Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA

ReplayRandall
11-02-2016, 05:46 PM
Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA

Ambitious strike of 45.00, wouldn't you say?

Parkview_Pirate
11-07-2016, 02:46 AM
Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.

reckless
11-07-2016, 03:00 AM
Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.

There will be huge trading moves these next few weeks, regardless of the election outcome.

This is why I mentioned earlier that it's best to build a position in a great company such as Gilead over a period of the next few months.

If the market skyrockets solely because of a Hillary win, it only demonstrates yet again that the financial markets are as corrupt as the US government and Central Bank.

Your opinions are worth much more than two cents, Park... :)

Parkview_Pirate
11-07-2016, 03:04 AM
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

I had to read this post a couple of times, but still couldn't find the /sarcasm tags.....are you serious?

Your assumptions that longer term small caps will grow is possible, but relies on things staying pretty much the same, with the Fed continuing to print madly, and somehow the U.S. staying out of war. That's a bad bet, IMHO, in the age of an empire in decline, and the rule of law for the oligarchs pretty much non-existent.

Many of the brighter minds of economics are betting on a huge deflation event. If that occurs, then a $140 stock today may be trading for $25 three years from now, if not out of business. Anything in health care is only a few pen strokes away (nationalized medicine or tossing Obamacare into the ditch) from skyrocketing OR dumping. Gun and ammo manufacturers are in the same boat. Durables like cars, washing machines, etc., are harder to come by when almost 100 million are not in the work force, and those remaining with employment are often taking a pay cut.

Our infrastructure is falling apart, and with the various levels of government scrambling more and more to balance their budgets with increased revenue, they're finding the lemon has been squeezed, peeled, grated, has no more juice, and the lemon orchard has been chopped down for firewood.

What does war usually do to an economy? With all the saber rattling going on, that seems a pretty good bet. Perhaps some defense stocks?

For now, I'll stick to short term trades. But if someone was going to hold a gun to my head and make me buy stocks that I had to hold long term, I'd be looking at petroleum or water companies. And that's about it....

sammy the sage
11-07-2016, 07:19 AM
Repo's of cars just skyrocketed nationwide...very BAD sign...

My own business is doing half of normal the last 4 months...just like early 07....very BAD sign...

would tread very careful...

By the way...for the APTLY named poster "Reckless"...those companies that seem undervalued....they keep giving GIANT BONUS stock options that WILL BE exercised at some point....destroying investors equity...maybe...just maybe that's priced in... :faint:

Whosonfirst
11-07-2016, 07:42 AM
Futures are crazy this morning, day before election.

pandy
11-07-2016, 07:55 AM
The way I see the market going forward with a Clinton Presidency is the start of bear market at some point in the next year or so. But, I have a hard time factoring in corporate sales from overseas. Can our economy continue to stay flat or weaken, but the corporations still do well because of China and other countries? What if those emerging economies hit a bubble? I'd love to see some practical analysis of this.

Here in the U.S., it's hard to see how the middle class doesn't cut down on spending. The average home owner now has three mortgages, health care insurance, mortgage, and property taxes. My parents had one mortgage, their health care was covered by their employer, and for most of the years that they owned their home real estate taxes were dramatically lower than they are now.

Add to that the high cost of college education and student loans and the high cost of health care in general. Then you have the potential for amnesty for illegals, continued illegal immigration, which would create even more welfare payments and more stress on the economy, which equates to more demands on the American taxpayer. I don't see how the Americans can spend enough money to keep wall st. hopping.

So the question becomes, can overseas sales keep these corporations profits growing?

classhandicapper
11-07-2016, 09:22 AM
Wall St is definitely backing Clinton. A Clinton presidency means business as usual.

More bonuses, more bailouts as needed, more easy money from the Fed, more rape and pillage of the US middle class, more rape and pillage of 3rd world countries, etc.. #letthegoodtimesroll

The problem is the world is in the largest financial asset/debt bubble in the history of mankind. It's going to blow up on somebodies watch and it appears very likely it will be within the next 4 years.

reckless
11-07-2016, 09:51 PM
Ahhh, a wonderful day in the stock market, with a very strong Hillary Will Win rally.

Since the reason for the rally is totally and completely groundless, I took this opportunity to unload on a few companies I've held for some time.

I will use the freed up cash to buy some of the more incredibly undervalued companies when the markets take a hit on Wednesday and Thursday. And it will, giving back most or more so its gain today.

You see, if the market rallied today simply because of a perceived but incorrect notion of a Hillary win, these same silly paper shufflers should sell, sell, sell! with a Donald Trump victory, no? That's a yes. Yes they will sell, sell, sell!

I just can't wait as the cognoscenti will be proven wrong once more.

reckless
11-07-2016, 10:19 PM
Repo's of cars just skyrocketed nationwide...very BAD sign...

My own business is doing half of normal the last 4 months...just like early 07....very BAD sign... would tread very careful...

By the way...for the APTLY named poster "Reckless" ..those companies that seem undervalued....they keep giving GIANT BONUS stock options that WILL BE exercised at some point....destroying investors equity...maybe...just maybe that's priced in... :faint:

Stock options and insider selling have been a bone of contention with me for ages. And the insiders at Gilead have been over doing it, as I see it. But if you know someone who needs a drug to combat HIV or Hepatitis C, will all this insider selling affect your thinking about helping them? Will you suggest that maybe they shouldn't take these great drugs since all the bosses are unloading their stock options .... I don't think so.

As for buying the stock or not, that's your choice. I am just trying to give people a shot, along with a valid reason, one that has helped make me a fairly wealthy guy, if truth be known. Unlike many of you guys that hide in the shadows just waiting to knock, insult and get snarky, while adding little or nothing to the community. That's OK by me too; if it's the type of life you choose to lead.

I have noticed in my near 30-35 years of investing there are always doom and gloomers out there. The end of the world was always just this close and right around the corner. And the stock market is oh so near over too, just inching toward that cliff so hang on tight.

ReplayRandall
11-07-2016, 11:08 PM
I have noticed in my near 30-35 years of investing there are always doom and gloomers out there. The end of the world was always just this close and right around the corner. And the stock market is oh so near over too, just inching toward that cliff so hang on tight.

Did you know that when the Depression started with the fall of the Stock Market in 1929, it fully didn't recover until 1955? Do you think this stock market is legit, after the FED basically printed $4 Trillion to loan freely to the Major Corps in the nation, to prop them up artificially? This is NOT the same market that we slowly built solid wealth from, those days have been long over......Stay away from the market, sell it all, you'll be glad you listened..;)

PICSIX
11-20-2016, 08:11 AM
[QUOTE=ReplayRandall]Did you know that when the Depression started with the fall of the Stock Market in 1929, it fully didn't recover until 1955? Do you think this stock market is legit, after the FED basically printed $4 Trillion to loan freely to the Major Corps in the nation, to prop them up artificially? This is NOT the same market that we slowly built solid wealth from, those days have been long over......Stay away from the market, sell it all, you'll be glad you listened..;)[/QUOTE
It's just a matter of time....

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-numbers-look-great-as-they-always-do-before-a-crash-145033636.html

highnote
11-21-2016, 07:46 PM
Back on July 11 the Zweig model I keep gave a major buy signal when the ratio of up stocks to down stocks over a 10 day period was greater than 2 to 1. This happens rarely, but when it does it signals momentum caused by heavy buying. The signal is usually good for 6 months and the average increase in the market is 15%.

The S&P was at 2137 that day. Today, it is at 2198 -- up about 3%. I don't see it going up 12% more by January 15, but the rally may extend longer than 6 months and eventually the S&P could hit 2457.

On October 27 there was a small sell signal when the Value Line Index fell 4% from a recent high. I think this was due to the uncertainty of the election.

On November 9, the day after the election, the Value Line Index had risen by 5% -- which was a buy signal. The market had time to pause and reflect and realized that Trump winning would not be the end of the world. The S&P is up 1.5% since the election.

I went to about 50% cash on the Oct 27 sell signal.

On Nov 7, two days before the election, I anticipated a rise in the market. I bought a bunch of shares in 4 different companies with very low prices that ranged from $1.27 per share to 4.30 per share. Those shares are up 5.1% since Nov 7.

1.) I think the market is going higher based on buying momentum and 2.) small stocks tend to outperform large stocks at the end of the year and into the new year due to tax loss selling.

I bought PDLI, CPSS, PACD, and STLY Nov 7 and bought more PDLI on Nov 16.

STLY has been a disappointment, but it only cost $1.27 per share. It's down to $1 now -- about a 21% loss.

PDLI is down 2%.

CPSS is up 9% and PACD is up 32%.

I'm happy with a low risk, 5% gain after only two weeks. My goal is to make 50% per year. Buffett says he could make 50% per year if he only had a small amount to invest.

A 5% gain in two weeks is about a 125% annualized gain.

Ocala Mike
11-22-2016, 05:27 PM
Don't fight the tape! Bought some AMD at around $6.50, and hanging on for the ride.

reckless
11-22-2016, 05:52 PM
Bought some more GILD today... 300 more shares since my very well-timed and prolific post of November 2 of a generational buying opportunity. My per share cost basis is now just under $75, not counting dividends, which I should count.

Yes, GILD hasn't really joined this rally but my time horizon is in years and not months or minutes. And I have been able to buy more shares of this extremely undervalued, growing company because of its current out-of-favor status.

ReplayRandall
11-22-2016, 05:55 PM
Bought some more GILD today... 300 more shares since my very well-timed and prolific post of November 2 of a generational buying opportunity. My per share cost basis is now just under $75, not counting dividends, which I should count.

Yes, GILD hasn't really joined this rally but my time horizon is in years and not months or minutes. And I have been able to buy more shares of this extremely undervalued, growing company because of its current out-of-favor status.

Reckless, we get along, you know that right? In regards to your Stock posts....Have you lost your mind? Go back and read post #62 again...:cool:

highnote
11-22-2016, 07:30 PM
Don't fight the tape! Bought some AMD at around $6.50, and hanging on for the ride.

Agree. It doesn't matter why people are buying. What matters is that they ARE buying. Don't fight the tape and don't fight the fed.

highnote
12-06-2016, 05:31 PM
Sold PDLI at 2.17 and STLY at 0.95 last week both at about a 26% loss. They weren't acting as I had hoped. PDLI is at 2.18. STLY is at 0.90. I probably sold at the bottom, but I don't like the fact that PDLI issued a convertible offering which is dilutive to existing shareholders. That is why the price dropped. Of course, they announced the news the day I bought it. I should have sold immediately and would have only been out the round trip commission.

I bought DHT and UUUU yesterday. DHT down 1%. UUUU up 9%.

Still holding PACD and CPSS. They're up 42% and 24% , respectively.

These "cigar butt" trades are ahead 0.06%. That's 15% annualized. The goal is to make 50% ROI per year. It should be doable.



Back on July 11 the Zweig model I keep gave a major buy signal when the ratio of up stocks to down stocks over a 10 day period was greater than 2 to 1. This happens rarely, but when it does it signals momentum caused by heavy buying. The signal is usually good for 6 months and the average increase in the market is 15%.

The S&P was at 2137 that day. Today, it is at 2198 -- up about 3%. I don't see it going up 12% more by January 15, but the rally may extend longer than 6 months and eventually the S&P could hit 2457.

On October 27 there was a small sell signal when the Value Line Index fell 4% from a recent high. I think this was due to the uncertainty of the election.

On November 9, the day after the election, the Value Line Index had risen by 5% -- which was a buy signal. The market had time to pause and reflect and realized that Trump winning would not be the end of the world. The S&P is up 1.5% since the election.

I went to about 50% cash on the Oct 27 sell signal.

On Nov 7, two days before the election, I anticipated a rise in the market. I bought a bunch of shares in 4 different companies with very low prices that ranged from $1.27 per share to 4.30 per share. Those shares are up 5.1% since Nov 7.

1.) I think the market is going higher based on buying momentum and 2.) small stocks tend to outperform large stocks at the end of the year and into the new year due to tax loss selling.

I bought PDLI, CPSS, PACD, and STLY Nov 7 and bought more PDLI on Nov 16.

STLY has been a disappointment, but it only cost $1.27 per share. It's down to $1 now -- about a 21% loss.

PDLI is down 2%.

CPSS is up 9% and PACD is up 32%.

I'm happy with a low risk, 5% gain after only two weeks. My goal is to make 50% per year. Buffett says he could make 50% per year if he only had a small amount to invest.

A 5% gain in two weeks is about a 125% annualized gain.

reckless
12-07-2016, 08:55 AM
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.

lamboguy
12-07-2016, 09:04 AM
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.what about gold mining company's?

pandy
12-07-2016, 09:25 AM
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.


Are you sure that this bull market has just begun? Yes, if we do actually get a 15% corporate tax rate and less regulation, it should be great for profits. Ireland cut their corporate tax rate to 12.5% and their GDP is three times better than ours.

But, aren't there uncertainties in today's market that didn't exist years ago? For instance, many American companies have greatly benefited from emerging markets in China, India, South America. Are those markets going to stay strong? The Fed used quantitative easing to artificially keep the stock market from falling. And for the past twenty years the market has gotten used to a very low prime interest rate. Once these new economic policies kick in, the Fed will almost surely have to continue to raise interest rates to protect against inflation. How will the market react to higher interest rates?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm just curious what people think about this. We had the second most severe economic collapse in history and the stock market kept going up. Can it go down in good times?

PaceAdvantage
12-07-2016, 01:16 PM
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.Well, it's looking more and more like you might be right and I was dead wrong.

Breaking out to all time highs on the S&P as I type this...viva Trump! :lol:

highnote
12-07-2016, 01:20 PM
Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

They are not as speculative as you think. They have fairly sound fundamentals. They are just small companies with low stock prices. So I buy lots of shares. It doesn't take a big move to make 30 or 40 percent.

I bought PACD and CPSS at 3 and 4 dollars a month ago. They are up to 4 and 5 dollars now -- both have about 35% gains.

Also, these small stock trades are what Warren Buffett calls "cigar butts" -- mediocre companies at great prices. You find a cigar butt on the ground and can get one or two puffs for free, you make 50% per year with low risk. Charlie Munger came along and said they're great trades when your capital is limited, but the methodology is not scalable. So now Buffett buys great companies at reasonable prices.

Since I don't have the problem that Buffett has with having so much money it's hard to find places to invest, I can look for cigar butts.

Also, these cigar butts are only a fraction of my portfolio. My core holdings are Berkshire-Hathaway, Philip Morris and Weyerhouser. Those are up 8, 2, and 26 percent since I bought them 2 years ago this month. PM and WY yield about 4% in dividends.


The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Trump certainly hasn't hurt the market. But stocks have done very well under Obama, too, as the Fed has kept rates low. When he took office the S&P was at 1350. Today it is at 2225. That is a 65% gain. If Trump can do the same the S&P will be at 3671 in 8 years.

My near term target, based on the indicators I use, is 2350 to 2450 between Jan 2017 and Jan 2018.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.

My biggest "buy" indicator came back on July 12. I believe we are seeing the continuation of the bull market that was signaled back in July. On July 12, the ratio of the 10 day average of up stocks to down stocks on the NYSE was 2.18 to 1. That signaled huge momentum. It is a very rare indicator. It only happens once every several years. The last time it happened was back in March of 2009 -- just after Obama took office. Ironically, it also happened as he was just about to leave office. I will leave it to others to interpret that as they wish.

There were also signs at the end of June that a bull market was forming when the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume reached 9 to 1. That is big volume to the upside. And for the next 10 days people continued to buy which led to the 2 to 1 up stocks to down stocks ratio.

The trend is your friend. :)

highnote
12-07-2016, 01:27 PM
what about gold mining company's?

I own shares in Hecla Mining. I bought a bunch at $1.50 last year. Then it went to $3 and I was ecstatic and sold off about half. Then it kept going higher and I realized I made a mistake so I bought back what I sold. I had to pay 3.80. So I lost out on that 80 cents. :bang:

It's up to 6.50 and has been over 7. But I'm just holding it as a hedge. It is up 72 percent since I re-bought it last April. My average gains are even higher than that. It's been the best performer in my portfolio. :)

highnote
12-07-2016, 01:31 PM
But, aren't there uncertainties in today's market that didn't exist years ago? For instance, many American companies have greatly benefited from emerging markets in China, India, South America. Are those markets going to stay strong? The Fed used quantitative easing to artificially keep the stock market from falling. And for the past twenty years the market has gotten used to a very low prime interest rate. Once these new economic policies kick in, the Fed will almost surely have to continue to raise interest rates to protect against inflation. How will the market react to higher interest rates?

Good points! Stay vigilante and don't get complacent!

I am holding on to Hecla Mining as a hedge in case inflation ever takes off.

Actually, we do have a lot of inflation. Just hire a plumber or compare your monthly grocery bills to two years ago. Or the cost of eating at a nice restaurant.

highnote
12-07-2016, 01:38 PM
Breaking out to all time highs on the S&P as I type this...viva Trump! :lol:

S&P has risen 65% during Obama admin. Will it do the same under Trump?

Fed either has to keep rates low and keep printing money, or Trump has to stimulate the economy.

The stock market is kind of like gravity. We know the effects of gravity and can measure and predict it, but we don't understand why it works the way it does.

We don't always know why the stock market moves in a given direction. What's important is that we know that the market is moving and we know the direction it's moving. Then we can react accordingly.

As I have written once today, the trend is your friend. And also, don't fight the Fed.

PaceAdvantage
12-07-2016, 02:02 PM
My viva Trump was said in jest, thus the :lol:

I didn't think this multi-year rally had much legs left, but it's putting up a substantial appendage today, so far...

highnote
12-07-2016, 02:49 PM
My viva Trump was said in jest, thus the :lol:

I didn't think this multi-year rally had much legs left, but it's putting up a substantial appendage today, so far...

I think there is a bit of a "relief rally". People realize that Trump being president is not the end of the world and he might actually be able to keep his word.

I like that he tweeted that Airforce One should be canceled since they can't contain the costs. Too often the military industrial complex companies think they have a blank check at the taxpayers' expense. It's about time we have a president who is not afraid to let everyone know who the boss is. We don't need pussyfooting presidents.

Of course, the proof will be in the pudding. Talk is cheap.

reckless
12-07-2016, 05:10 PM
They are not as speculative as you think. They have fairly sound fundamentals. They are just small companies with low stock prices. So I buy lots of shares. It doesn't take a big move to make 30 or 40 percent.

I bought PACD and CPSS at 3 and 4 dollars a month ago. They are up to 4 and 5 dollars now -- both have about 35% gains.

Also, these small stock trades are what Warren Buffett calls "cigar butts" -- mediocre companies at great prices. You find a cigar butt on the ground and can get one or two puffs for free, you make 50% per year with low risk. Charlie Munger came along and said they're great trades when your capital is limited, but the methodology is not scalable. So now Buffett buys great companies at reasonable prices.

Since I don't have the problem that Buffett has with having so much money it's hard to find places to invest, I can look for cigar butts.

Also, these cigar butts are only a fraction of my portfolio. My core holdings are Berkshire-Hathaway, Philip Morris and Weyerhouser. Those are up 8, 2, and 26 percent since I bought them 2 years ago this month. PM and WY yield about 4% in dividends.




Trump certainly hasn't hurt the market. But stocks have done very well under Obama, too, as the Fed has kept rates low. When he took office the S&P was at 1350. Today it is at 2225. That is a 65% gain. If Trump can do the same the S&P will be at 3671 in 8 years.

My near term target, based on the indicators I use, is 2350 to 2450 between Jan 2017 and Jan 2018.



My biggest "buy" indicator came back on July 12. I believe we are seeing the continuation of the bull market that was signaled back in July. On July 12, the ratio of the 10 day average of up stocks to down stocks on the NYSE was 2.18 to 1. That signaled huge momentum. It is a very rare indicator. It only happens once every several years. The last time it happened was back in March of 2009 -- just after Obama took office. Ironically, it also happened as he was just about to leave office. I will leave it to others to interpret that as they wish.

There were also signs at the end of June that a bull market was forming when the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume reached 9 to 1. That is big volume to the upside. And for the next 10 days people continued to buy which led to the 2 to 1 up stocks to down stocks ratio.

The trend is your friend. :)

Nice going ... glad you're doing well.

One of the very first things I ever learned about the stock market was .... time in the market is much more important than timing the market. I look at just few things when I study and buy a company: price; free cash flow history; FCF yield, ROE/ROIC; earnings yield (the inverse of P/E ratio), sales growth; earnings growth and dividend growth.

I am not a technical analyst by any means but every so often the stars align in a way that makes sense to me and very little sense to everyone else. :lol: :lol:

We have been in this position for a few years now... and the future at this moment looks even greater than ever for those that have a time horizon longer than a week or an hour.

(A whisper to all my PA friends, especially if they hate Trump but invest in the stock market. Put your hatred aside because he'll get a deal done to re-patriate all the trillions of profits held overseas by large US companies. When this gets done the market goes up 20-30 per cent within weeks and the skies the limit after that. Companies such as Apple, Microsoft, the large pharmas, and industrials could even double in no time. I'm 'releasing' this gem out now, just for all my friends on here. ) :)

Once again, nice post and congrats, highnote.

PS--the cigar butt investment was a gem from Buffet's mentor Benjamin Graham. Warren actually moved away from that thinking even before meeting Munger, who was more superior to Buffett in the stock investing game, imo.

highnote
12-07-2016, 05:29 PM
(A whisper to all my PA friends, especially if they hate Trump but invest in the stock market. Put your hatred aside because he'll get a deal done to re-patriate all the trillions of profits held overseas by large US companies. When this gets done the market goes up 20-30 per cent within weeks and the skies the limit after that. Companies such as Apple, Microsoft, the large pharmas, and industrials could even double in no time. I'm 'releasing' this gem out now, just for all my friends on here. ) :)


I agree. Repatriation of cash will allow companies to buy back stock and pay dividends. If we're lucky the companies will actually invest the money in R&D and expansion, but don't count on it. Most likely, stocks will rise due to buybacks and dividends.

The Fed will probably raise rates, which could offset the stock momentum. A 1/2 point raise is more likely than a 1/4 point raise. If that happens, then watch out. The market could fall.

So the timing of repatriation and interest rate raises will be an important factor in timing the market -- unless you use a long term, buy and hold strategy. And even if you do have a long term strategy, it might make sense to anticipate the interest rate hike and sit on the sidelines until the market stabilizes.

highnote
12-08-2016, 02:49 PM
My cigar butts trades are doing well today:

DHT up 10% since Dec 5 purchase date.

UUUU up 16.5% since Dec 5 purchase date.

CPSS up 31% since Nov 7 purchase date.

PACD up 47% since Nov 7 purchase date.

Those gains far outweigh the losses I had from the Nov 7 purchases of STLY and PDLI. I sold both a week or so ago.

No doubt these trades are benefitting from the strong recent market. But I had written back on July 12 that the market could rise by 15% by Jan 12 given the appearance of a very strong bullish momentum indicator.

Couple that with the fact that small stocks tend to outperform large stocks at the turn of the year due to tax loss selling; many things were in place for this type of trade to have a good chance of success.

_______
12-08-2016, 09:59 PM
I'm raising cash. Sold my WFC shares on the recent run up. Will be exiting or reducing multiple positions in the Energy sector before the end of the month.

I'll maintain some positions I've been in for years.

It's certainly been fun participating in a run like this but the idea that this market hasn't gotten ahead of earnings requires some assumptions about the future I think are overly rosy.

highnote
12-08-2016, 11:00 PM
I'm raising cash. Sold my WFC shares on the recent run up. Will be exiting or reducing multiple positions in the Energy sector before the end of the month.

I'll maintain some positions I've been in for years.

It's certainly been fun participating in a run like this but the idea that this market hasn't gotten ahead of earnings requires some assumptions about the future I think are overly rosy.


I can't blame you for raising cash given the rapid run up. It would be good to have cash to buy stocks if the market crashes.

Right now, I am not fighting the tape. I don't want to sell into strength. The market has been strong for the past 5 months. I think it has another good month remaining. I'll use stops in case there is a big reversal.

highnote
12-09-2016, 11:17 AM
Right now, I am not fighting the tape. I don't want to sell into strength. The market has been strong for the past 5 months. I think it has another good month remaining. I'll use stops in case there is a big reversal.

One thing we know is that what goes up must come down ... eventually. Right now the market is red hot. I'll keep riding the wave, but will be on the lookout for signs of a reversal. So far, I haven't see any.

DHT and UUUU are up 11 and 25 percent since Monday.

CPSS and PACD are up 30 and 65 percent since Nov 7.

PACD in one month has become the best performing stock in my portfolio over the past two years. Those gains are NOT sustainable.

highnote
12-09-2016, 04:17 PM
The market was up today, but decliners were greater than advancers by a few shares. That means there is a some selling going on, even though the S&P closed higher.

Ocala Mike
12-09-2016, 07:37 PM
Took profits on AMD, and bought beaten-down TNDM.

nik21precious
12-20-2016, 11:20 PM
Hi, i am wanting to start investing in stocks and i think it's a good time because share prices are lower. Can any one suggest me from which company i should start from? :)

highnote
12-20-2016, 11:45 PM
Hi, i am wanting to start investing in stocks and i think it's a good time because share prices are lower. Can any one suggest me from which company i should start from? :)


It depends on what your objective is. Are you looking to hold long term or short term. Are you interested in collecting dividends for purposes of income and/or reinvestment? Are you nearing retirement?

The best advice I can give is to read a lot of books.

Here is a link to several good ones:

http://www.fool.com/specials/2000/sp001107a.htm

You might even consider joining the Motley Fool website. They have some excellent message boards and offer other valuable investing information.

There are a many more good books.

Here is a list of authors whose books you should consider reading:

David Dreman
John Neff
Joel Greenblatt
Warren Buffett
Joseph Piotroski
James P. O'Shaunessy
Martin Zweig
Benjamin Graham
Kenneth Fisher
Peter Lynch

If you read these books, follow the authors' advice, I am certain that in 20 or so years your chances of being financially secure would be far greater than asking for stock picks from this message board. Although, there are some pretty good analysts here.

Red Knave
12-22-2016, 05:26 PM
Did you know that when the Depression started with the fall of the Stock Market in 1929, it fully didn't recover until 1955?
i keep hearing this and on the surface it's true but in real terms it isn't.
While it's true that the inflation adjusted return of the S&P 'Composite Index' from Oct 1929 to Oct 1955 was -3.25%, if you include reinvested dividends your return could have been 315%. That's an annualized real return of over 5.5%.
I know that I don't know where the market will be tomorrow but I would rather be invested in it than on the sidelines. Over the very long run, the stock market has had an inflation-adjusted annualized return rate of between six and seven percent.

nik21precious
12-26-2016, 09:58 PM
Thank you so much.

nik21precious
12-26-2016, 10:02 PM
Regular trading hours for the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) are Monday to Friday with an opening time of 9:30 a.m. and a closing time of 4:00 p.m. Each day it is open, It is important to also note that some U.S. holidays may affect trading on the TSX for equities traded in U.S. dollars.

Note that when a holiday falls on the weekend Saturday or Sunday, the stock markets will be closed the next calendar Monday in lieu of the weekend holiday.

Here you will find the TSX holidays 2017 (http://www.profitconfidential.com/toronto-stock-exchange-tsx-holidays-schedule/) calendar

_______
12-27-2016, 06:26 PM
While I am raising cash (mostly be exiting an overweight in Energy stocks), I did buy CVS today @79.50.

It sold off after losing the TRIAD contract to Walgreens/Boots Alliance and now trades at what I perceive as a fair value for a company still growing earnings at a double digit rate.

I started December with less than 5% cash and will exit with closer to 20% so it's not like I hate this market. But I do expect to see better prices when Trump hasn't solved all the economic problems we face in his first week.

I'm not a trader. I hold all my positions at least a year (average is 42 months and I have some that are 30 years old). I've been watching CVS since it fell in the 3Q and just decided it's unlikely to drop all that much further in any pullback and would open a position now.

upthecreek
01-25-2017, 10:02 AM
So called experts said the Dow was going to tank under Trump Wall Street hates him , businesses dont like him etc blah, blah,blah They predicted the DJI would drop a 1000 points Wednesday after the election Its up nearly 2000 since

upthecreek
01-25-2017, 11:54 AM
Stocks that are moving Dow

highnote
01-25-2017, 12:18 PM
So called experts said the Dow was going to tank under Trump Wall Street hates him , businesses dont like him etc blah, blah,blah They predicted the DJI would drop a 1000 points Wednesday after the election Its up nearly 2000 since

Back on July 13, 2016 I predicted here on PA that the market had the potential to rise up to 15% by January 15, 2017 because a big momentum indicator was triggered.

I consider the political climate as I invest, but I also look at the facts. I leave it to others to give credit or place the blame for the economy on president.

Here are the facts:

When George Bush, Jr. took office the DOW was at 10495. 6 months later it had fallen to 7591.

7.5 years later, at the end of Bush's presidency, the DOW had fallen to 8000 just as Obama was about to take office.

Under Bush, investors lost more than 20%.

Then over the next 8 years the DOW, under the Obama administration, rose to 19912 -- about a 12,000 point rise.

Under Obama investors gained about 250%.

Under Trump, the DOW is up about 200 points. That's about a 1% gain. That's a good return if you can do it every week.

If Trump can stick around long enough to do two terms, it seems very unlikely that we'll see another 250% gain. That would put the DOW at 50,000.

A 4% gain per year would be a more reasonable target. That would put the DOW in the range of 26,000 at the end of the next 8 years.

However, that could all change if there is some huge financial crisis or a war.

Trump is smart. We'll find out if his business savvy can translate into savvy broad economic policy.

lamboguy
01-25-2017, 01:33 PM
i think the above poster's 50k target is very realistic because of his great reasoning.

for me it looks like the dollar will weaken and help make it to that number.

Trumps way of doing things is very unpredictable, if you can predict it you can score with the s+p and dow.

highnote
01-25-2017, 01:45 PM
i think the above poster's 50k target is very realistic because of his great reasoning.

for me it looks like the dollar will weaken and help make it to that number.

Trumps way of doing things is very unpredictable, if you can predict it you can score with the s+p and dow.

If the DOW makes 50k over the next 8 years there will be a lot of happy CEOs. :D

PaceAdvantage
01-26-2017, 07:42 AM
Under Obama investors gained about 250%.Yeah, they all bought in at the low... :lol:

Funny stuff...they MADE BACK their losses and THEN made some money (this didn't start happening until 2013 by the way)...most of them, anyway...those that didn't bail in a panic back in 08...etc...etc...etc...

highnote
01-26-2017, 11:03 AM
Yeah, they all bought in at the low... :lol:

Funny stuff...they MADE BACK their losses and THEN made some money (this didn't start happening until 2013 by the way)...most of them, anyway...those that didn't bail in a panic back in 08...etc...etc...etc...

I can only hypothesize how "they" did. I'm just giving the facts.

The market started turning around in March of 2009 -- a month or so after Obama took office. There were 10 straight days where the up volume to down volume ratio averaged more than 2 to 1. That is a huge sign of momentum and confidence.

This happened this past July while Obama was still in office and Clinton was the favorite to win.

You can attribute this continuing bull market to Trump or Obama or whoever you want. Does it really matter who gets the credit?

The important thing is to look at the facts and then invest accordingly.

Secondbest
01-26-2017, 12:31 PM
The rise since 09 is all Fed driven 0 interest rates or close to it,A bunch of QE's and Tarp all led to a recovery in the financial health of the banks and other lenders. Employment growth was weak. Send a thank you to fed for the rise since 09,
.

PaceAdvantage
01-26-2017, 01:41 PM
I can only hypothesize how "they" did. I'm just giving the facts.

The market started turning around in March of 2009 -- a month or so after Obama took office. There were 10 straight days where the up volume to down volume ratio averaged more than 2 to 1. That is a huge sign of momentum and confidence.

This happened this past July while Obama was still in office and Clinton was the favorite to win.

You can attribute this continuing bull market to Trump or Obama or whoever you want. Does it really matter who gets the credit?

The important thing is to look at the facts and then invest accordingly.I don't care who is causing the market to go up...but to say investors made 250% with Obama is ridiculous...people were bleeding out when he took office.

Only a precious few bought substantially at the beginning of 2009, so I would venture to guess hardly ANYBODY made 250%. Like I said, those with the balls to actually stay in, MADE THEIR LOSSES back in around 2013, and THEN started making money again....

lamboguy
01-26-2017, 02:29 PM
I don't care who is causing the market to go up...but to say investors made 250% with Obama is ridiculous...people were bleeding out when he took office.

Only a precious few bought substantially at the beginning of 2009, so I would venture to guess hardly ANYBODY made 250%. Like I said, those with the balls to actually stay in, MADE THEIR LOSSES back in around 2013, and THEN started making money again....
who the cares about stock markets. it took 8 years to make the 250%, i am going to come up with a move in the superbowl that will make you 300% in less than 3 hours.......

stay tuned

_______
01-27-2017, 09:56 PM
I think we'll see the Dow below 19,000 before it's above 21,000. It's not much of a prediction (a 5% retracement before a 5% gain) but give me some credit for the enthusiasm currently evident in the market.

I'm still optimistic that the administration and one party control of congress will be good for the market in general but the run up so far has been an expansion in an already heady P/E ratio on the expectation that a lot will happen in a hurry.

It won't. The Senate will be tied up confirming a new justice shortly.

I think that as the reality sets in that meaningful tax reform isn't going to impact fiscal year 2017, there will be a pullback.

I sure hope so. I'm 30% in cash since mid-Decemberish.

lamboguy
01-27-2017, 11:00 PM
i have been buying this stupid thing for the last 6 months. usually i would never tout a penny stock that is below a penny right now in a million years. most of these stocks are complete pump and dump scams. but this one has some very interesting people behind it like Beau Dietl, letters of endorsements from people like Warren Buffet and Donald Trump.

they have a tremendous law firm that is suing large company's. they deal with internet security and the money to be made at first will be in these lawsuits.

currently selling for .0056 cents. that is a little more than half a penny. it should go back to .03 whether the market stays friendly or turns bearish.

do your own due diligence on this one. i think its a double great gamble.

sammy the sage
01-30-2017, 09:29 AM
Heavy insider selling recently...across the board...sometimes tho...instead of an upcoming down market as was the case in the past....it could mean the "Big Dogs" got giant stock option bonus's...so just collecting some FREE cash from mom/pop investor(s)...and market will continue to roll...then again maybe not....

_______
01-30-2017, 10:17 AM
Heavy insider selling recently...across the board...sometimes tho...instead of an upcoming down market as was the case in the past....it could mean the "Big Dogs" got giant stock option bonus's...so just collecting some FREE cash from mom/pop investor(s)...and market will continue to roll...then again maybe not....

Some of the insider selling in banks was because options that had been awarded but which were out of the money in November, got into the money just before expiration in January.

I assume this was probably true for any industry that participated in the post election rally but was very visible in financials.

barahona44
01-30-2017, 10:39 PM
Barrons-a periodical that I have found to be more right than wrong about the stock market's future through the years- cover story this week thinks that the Dow could reach 30,000 by 2025 assuming no trade war or real war. It's a paid subscriber article so linking to it is pointless but there's a quick summary by someone who doesn't agree with the premise.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-28/barrons-cover-next-stop-dow-30000-one-condition

OTOH, I'm not convinced I should take someone seriously who identifies themself after a character in a Brad Pitt movie.

barn32
02-01-2017, 08:49 AM
It's a bull market.

lamboguy
02-01-2017, 09:35 AM
It's a bull market.it can go up point wise and not be in a bull market if the value of the currency does not keep up with the value of the dow.

Whosonfirst
02-13-2017, 10:08 AM
Heavy insider selling recently...across the board...sometimes tho...instead of an upcoming down market as was the case in the past....it could mean the "Big Dogs" got giant stock option bonus's...so just collecting some FREE cash from mom/pop investor(s)...and market will continue to roll...then again maybe not....
Heavy insider selling isn't as predictive as heavy insider buying. Rich people always buying expensive s_ _ _, paying tuition to Harvard and Stanford, and cutting checks to ex-trophy wives.

lamboguy
02-13-2017, 10:28 AM
living lock #1 Trump to win presidency

living lock #2 New England Patriots to win superbowl

living lock #3 $50 and $100 dollar bills are going bye bye just like the $500 and $1000 dollar bills did in the early 70's. this stuff is happening all over the world right now. something different going to replace those bills at some point.

silver going to go ballistic at some point this year or next.

barahona44
02-13-2017, 11:11 AM
living lock #1 Trump to win presidency

living lock #2 New England Patriots to win superbowl

living lock #3 $50 and $100 dollar bills are going bye bye just like the $500 and $1000 dollar bills did in the early 70's. this stuff is happening all over the world right now. something different going to replace those bills at some point.

silver going to go ballistic at some point this year or next.
The 100's , I agree will probably be gone in the next few years but the fifties have value.Most banks in Europe and Asia only change money for their customers so tourists have no use for currency (cheaper to use an ATM ,even with the fees), although third world countries still have an unholy lust for US cash .I usually bring 3000 in hundreds when I come to the Dom. Rep in the winter, so it would inconvenience me to bring double the amount of bills but it will also inconvenience the drug cartels. :)

lamboguy
02-13-2017, 11:31 AM
The 100's , I agree will probably be gone in the next few years but the fifties have value.Most banks in Europe and Asia only change money for their customers so tourists have no use for currency (cheaper to use an ATM ,even with the fees), although third world countries still have an unholy lust for US cash .I usually bring 3000 in hundreds when I come to the Dom. Rep in the winter, so it would inconvenience me to bring double the amount of bills but it will also inconvenience the drug cartels. :)maybe i am pushing the envelope with the fifties, but since i have't been going to the casino's or race tracks i find myself walking around with a bunch of credit cards and less than $50 in my pocket at all times. even when you need to take an Uber ride they don't even take cash.

when the government does get rid of the bills it will save them plenty from printing the stuff. there will probably be a lot of down side to go with getting rid of these denomination's.

_______
02-13-2017, 12:39 PM
If they want to save money, getting rid of the penny like Canada did makes more sense.

I can't imagine the print cost on a $100 bill is any different than the $10.

And unless they intend to actually decrease the amount of cash in circulation, they would have to substantially increase the print of smaller bills.

ReplayRandall
02-13-2017, 12:45 PM
I can't imagine the print cost on a $100 bill is any different than the $10.
The anti-counterfeiting technology/measures that are used in the printing of the $100 bill, make it costlier to print than any other bill....

lamboguy
02-13-2017, 02:46 PM
If they want to save money, getting rid of the penny like Canada did makes more sense.

I can't imagine the print cost on a $100 bill is any different than the $10.

And unless they intend to actually decrease the amount of cash in circulation, they would have to substantially increase the print of smaller bills.i would say they probably would want less money in circulation and maybe rely on some type of digital money like what other's are trying to do throughout the world now.

reckless
02-13-2017, 08:58 PM
Has anyone noticed today was another record day in the stock market? Of course people noticed but it is ignored on here it for reasons I simply do not understand. :)

lamboguy
02-13-2017, 09:36 PM
Has anyone noticed today was another record day in the stock market? Of course people noticed but it is ignored on here it for reasons I simply do not understand. :)before Trump got sworn in there were a lot out there that doubted his ability to govern, same thing happened with Obama. now it looks like more people trust his judgement.

during Obama the dow almost tripled, if it doubles with Trump that would be great. i don't think that will be that easy, but still very possible if the dollar continues to fall the dow could make some science fiction moves.

PaceAdvantage
02-13-2017, 11:47 PM
Has anyone noticed today was another record day in the stock market? Of course people noticed but it is ignored on here it for reasons I simply do not understand. :)The market has been going up since 2009...straight up basically...so not sure what reaction you're expecting HERE when record highs are recorded...ho-hum I say.

Should I be shocked? Surprised? Dumbfounded? Awed? :lol:

Call me when we drop 10-20%...now THAT would be worth noticing...

reckless
02-14-2017, 04:38 PM
The market has been going up since 2009...straight up basically...so not sure what reaction you're expecting HERE when record highs are recorded...ho-hum I say.

Should I be shocked? Surprised? Dumbfounded? Awed? :lol:

Call me when we drop 10-20%...now THAT would be worth noticing...

Well, maybe so... but there were only 2-3 of us that said the market was going up, and it seemed like an army of others that said no, can't be... one guy even said 'I know why your nickname is reckless'... stuff like that.

So fine. You're right. The market has in fact been going up since 1972 ... err, I mean, since 2009.

I simply must have read it all wrong then when people said to me in early November 2016 that the world is coming to an end, the market is soooooo overvalued. Stuff like that. No big deal, of course, since no one pays any attention to what I say anyway.... :lol: :lol:

PaceAdvantage
02-14-2017, 04:49 PM
Ok then...

thaskalos
02-14-2017, 06:40 PM
Has anyone noticed today was another record day in the stock market? Of course people noticed but it is ignored on here it for reasons I simply do not understand. :)

You seem to imply that the confidence in TRUMP is the "driving force". But, oddly enough, I don't recall any compliments here going OBAMA's way during the stock market's stratospheric rise after he was elected.

barn32
02-14-2017, 08:30 PM
But, oddly enough, I don't recall any compliments here going OBAMA's way during the stock market's stratospheric rise after he was elected.Thank you, Obama. :) :cool: :p :ThmbUp: :jump:

reckless
02-14-2017, 10:14 PM
You seem to imply that the confidence in TRUMP is the "driving force". But, oddly enough, I don't recall any compliments here going OBAMA's way during the stock market's stratospheric rise after he was elected.

What you say I 'seem to imply' is factually and patently incorrect.

I have been contributing posts on financial matters and stock investing on this PA site for many years in case you never read any of my posts. That's OK, of course. It's no big deal. I am just saying so to set the record straight.

While I never said Trump is the 'driving force' of the trillion+ dollar increase in stock values since his election, I DO IMPLY and feel that this record setting stock market has been basically ignored -- and that's probably because of their hatred for Trump.

JustRalph
02-14-2017, 11:20 PM
You seem to imply that the confidence in TRUMP is the "driving force". But, oddly enough, I don't recall any compliments here going OBAMA's way during the stock market's stratospheric rise after he was elected.

Because it's propped up by printed money. Notice how suddenly Yellen is way more open to increasing interest rates? They set Trump up perfectly.

ReplayRandall
02-15-2017, 12:04 AM
QUOTE=reckless]Has anyone noticed today was another record day in the stock market? Of course people noticed but it is ignored on here it for reasons I simply do not understand. :)[/QUOTE]
Here's where the Stock Market closed today:

</p>

S&P 500


2,337.58




DOW 30


20,504.41




NASDAQ
5,782.57
Tell you what I'm going to propose here Reckless, if all 3 indices go up 20%, from this point forward, I owe $500 towards your favorite charity. But if all 3 go down 20%, you owe $500 towards my charity.

Here's what the market has to look like, at a minimum, for you to win:

RECKLESS



S&P 500


2,805.10




DOW 30
24,605.29




NASDAQ
6,939.08
Here's what the market has to look like, at a minimum, for me to win:

ReplayRandall



S&P 500
1870.06




DOW 30
16,403.53




NASDAQ
4626.05


Do we have a wager?

PICSIX
02-15-2017, 06:27 AM
Here's a long-term prediction courtesy of Thomas Bulkowski:

lamboguy
02-15-2017, 07:07 AM
https://www.c-span.org/video/?424010-1/president-trump-signs-bill-ending-disclosure-rule-energy-companies-payments-foreign-governments

reckless
02-15-2017, 08:47 PM
QUOTE=reckless]Has anyone noticed today was another record day in the stock market? Of course people noticed but it is ignored on here it for reasons I simply do not understand. :)
Here's where the Stock Market closed today:

</p>

S&P 500


2,337.58




DOW 30


20,504.41




NASDAQ
5,782.57
Tell you what I'm going to propose here Reckless, if all 3 indices go up 20%, from this point forward, I owe $500 towards your favorite charity. But if all 3 go down 20%, you owe $500 towards my charity.

Here's what the market has to look like, at a minimum, for you to win:

RECKLESS



S&P 500


2,805.10




DOW 30
24,605.29




NASDAQ
6,939.08
Here's what the market has to look like, at a minimum, for me to win:

ReplayRandall



S&P 500
1870.06




DOW 30
16,403.53




NASDAQ
4626.05


Do we have a wager?

Randall, after I made my absolutely fabulous, spot-on 'generational buying opportunity' prediction on or about Nov. 3, 2016, you basically called me dope and a knucklehead. You also suggested that I should get out of all my stock holdings. And you told all of us that I will thank you later for this advise! (A line that I will forever remember as the most ridiculous and funny suggestion ever offered me.)

Randall, in the 10 weeks since my absolutely fabulous 'generational buying opportunity' call the general market has increased over $2.2 trillion dollars! Did you notice that?

Not once since all this prosperity began did you extend even a simple courtesy to me that I made a good call. Not once, never.

But yet today, after another record day in the stock market, you now want to bet me $500 that the market will tank 20 per cent.

You should be ashamed of yourself for trying to rope me into this stupid bet -- especially after the market has already risen in value by over $2.2 trillion dollars since my tremendous, absolutely fabulous, 'generational buying opportunity' call on Nov. 3 or so.

We do not have a wager. What do you think I am, a dope? :lol: :lol: :lol:

ReplayRandall
02-15-2017, 09:18 PM
We do not have a wager. What do you think I am, a dope? :lol: :lol: :lol:
Yes.....:lol::lol::lol:BTW, nice call.....I guess?

lamboguy
02-15-2017, 09:24 PM
i love a stock that has a market cap of $15 million, but it trades under a penny.

99.9% of any company that trades this low is generally just a pump and dump. but this one is a legit company in the cyber security field with patents and patents pending. they also have some patent infrindgement cases alive, they have won a few of them already.

Strikeforce is the name of the company ticker SFOR

i wish i could call this one a living lock, but its pretty close.

upthecreek
02-21-2017, 09:36 AM
Fox News (@FoxNews) tweeted at 5:25 PM on Mon, Feb 20, 2017:
#Trump has had biggest Dow gain in a president's first 30 days since 1909 https://t.co/9SWXWey9bc
(https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/833804834289618944?s=09)

AltonKelsey
02-21-2017, 08:19 PM
i love a stock that has a market cap of $15 million, but it trades under a penny.

99.9% of any company that trades this low is generally just a pump and dump. but this one is a legit company in the cyber security field with patents and patents pending. they also have some patent infrindgement cases alive, they have won a few of them already.

Strikeforce is the name of the company ticker SFOR

i wish i could call this one a living lock, but its pretty close.


What pump and dump tout tipped you to this ?

I'll ask you one question , do you have any idea what the float is ?

AltonKelsey
02-21-2017, 08:20 PM
Fox News (@FoxNews) tweeted at 5:25 PM on Mon, Feb 20, 2017:
#Trump has had biggest Dow gain in a president's first 30 days since 1909 https://t.co/9SWXWey9bc
(https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/833804834289618944?s=09)

This is the same market that sold OFF in a panic when the election became clear. Reversed quickly to their credit.

lamboguy
02-21-2017, 08:44 PM
What pump and dump tout tipped you to this ?

I'll ask you one question , do you have any idea what the float is ?its a $15 million company that is now trading a little more than a third more than when i posted it.

actually i found this one all by myself by a complete accident of typing in the wrong symbols. i read it, got interested, and investigated it the best i know. i wound up putting money into it and so far i am very happy with the progress. it looks like its getting ready for a huge move within a month.

if you don't want to follow this yourself i will keep you updated on it.

i try to give out living locks, this one is close to it, but this isn't my main game and i could easily be fooled.

AltonKelsey
02-21-2017, 09:13 PM
Yes, but you didn't answer my question. Try to gently wise you up.

Now, any stock can go up , and garbage frequently goes up a lot under the right circumstances.

Just hard to predict when and where. 20-1 shots win all the time.....how many do you need to bet before it happens?

http://prp.fm/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/bigfloat-900x246.gif

lamboguy
02-21-2017, 09:21 PM
i appreciate your concern's. i am a big boy, i put up my money and am taking my chances.

the chart happens to look super in my opinion, that is why i looked into it.

good luck

http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=sfor

AltonKelsey
02-21-2017, 10:06 PM
Oh yeah! Nice selective view you got there.

Hey , ask the guy that paid 990 Million how the chart looks to him :cool:

Go to your chart ,click on max for timeframe

I confess one thing, a long way to go before you hit resistance!

_______
02-22-2017, 01:23 AM
They have a 2.2 billion share float and trailing 6 month revenue of just over $200,000.

They have nearly $6 million in debt and their 10-Q has this gem of a statement: "The company has not made various principal and interest payments on many of it's debt obligations. It continues to seek work out arrangements and applicable refinancing with new or revised debt or equity instruments."

So more dilution of present shares, finding someone willing to loan money to a company already in default, or the current bond holders get all the assets.

This is another one that requires a mindset that a stock is a blip in a computer screen that goes up and down. I'd be more interested in their debt if it was cheap enough since they do have a small revenue stream. But there is no way I want to own some ridiculously tiny fraction of a company that exists as a going concern only on the good will of it's debt holders.

lamboguy
02-22-2017, 02:18 AM
sometimes one needs to be able to anticipate the future. the company has plenty of patent infringement law suits pending that far exceed the debt. they have already won a judgement vs. microsoft. the legal firms that are handling their cases are not shabby ones either.

the products that they sell are on shelves at places like Best Buy and Target along with Amazon.

nobody has ever said that making money is ever going to be easy, and i do realize how tough it is for most people to buy into a story like this.

heres the bottom line, i love the chart and the people behind the scenes in this company and realize that this is a longshot with a very big reward if the cards fall the right way. right now there is nothing else to say.

barahona44
02-22-2017, 09:37 AM
They have a 2.2 billion share float and trailing 6 month revenue of just over $200,000.

They have nearly $6 million in debt and their 10-Q has this gem of a statement: "The company has not made various principal and interest payments on many of it's debt obligations. It continues to seek work out arrangements and applicable refinancing with new or revised debt or equity instruments."

So more dilution of present shares, finding someone willing to loan money to a company already in default, or the current bond holders get all the assets.

This is another one that requires a mindset that a stock is a blip in a computer screen that goes up and down. I'd be more interested in their debt if it was cheap enough since they do have a small revenue stream. But there is no way I want to own some ridiculously tiny fraction of a company that exists as a going concern only on the good will of it's debt holders.Picky, picky.:D

AltonKelsey
02-22-2017, 12:25 PM
If you want to bet your good money on a horse blind in one eye and with one leg missing, good luck to ya!

Did anyone look at the long term chart as I suggested. Get back to me when you get up off the floor.

lamboguy
02-22-2017, 05:56 PM
If you want to bet your good money on a horse blind in one eye and with one leg missing, good luck to ya!

Did anyone look at the long term chart as I suggested. Get back to me when you get up off the floor.i can't argue to much with you about the long term, but the short term looks pretty dam good today:lol:

lamboguy
02-22-2017, 06:38 PM
i have been buying this stupid thing for the last 6 months. usually i would never tout a penny stock that is below a penny right now in a million years. most of these stocks are complete pump and dump scams. but this one has some very interesting people behind it like Beau Dietl, letters of endorsements from people like Warren Buffet and Donald Trump.

they have a tremendous law firm that is suing large company's. they deal with internet security and the money to be made at first will be in these lawsuits.

currently selling for .0056 cents. that is a little more than half a penny. it should go back to .03 whether the market stays friendly or turns bearish.

do your own due diligence on this one. i think its a double great gamble.i would say @ .009 this one isn't that bad a tout with all that volume in this baby

lamboguy
02-22-2017, 06:43 PM
the greatest part of this deal is the way i found it. i was looking up a company called SALES FORCE and for some reason i punched in the letters and up came STRIKE FORCE. i looked at it, made some calls and sold myself on this one.

i just unloaded 1/3 of my position on the run up and i am playing with free shares now. it still looks great from where i am sitting.

barn32
02-22-2017, 07:53 PM
the greatest part of this deal is the way i found it. i was looking up a company called SALES FORCE and for some reason i punched in the letters and up came STRIKE FORCE. i looked at it, made some calls and sold myself on this one.

i just unloaded 1/3 of my position on the run up and i am playing with free shares now. it still looks great from where i am sitting.The stock isn't listed, right? Where did you buy it? What was the spread?

lamboguy
02-22-2017, 08:00 PM
The stock isn't listed, right? Where did you buy it? What was the spread?i bought it with ETRADE. i bought shares 3 times. there was always a bid and ask, the first time i bought in the bid and ask was .0043 and .0044. i put the order in @ .0043 and got filled about 3 hours later. after i bought it the stock tanked to under .0037 and it came back about 4 trading days later. then i bought more @ .0054 and yesterday @ .0064.

i am done buying and selling, my next step is to pray that this thing becomes a miracle. if it happens to hit .03 i will sell half of what i have left. it just might based on the technical action that i have seen in it.

AltonKelsey
02-22-2017, 08:53 PM
Cool trade. You must use one of those Discount Brokers, you know, the ones that give you a discount on the price, cause it hasn't been anywhere near .0064 for over a week.

If folks have bought on your first mention in Jan they would be up some money. Most of these are coin flips either way, and eventually you get stuck with a ZERO if you keep playing, so money management is key.

lamboguy
02-22-2017, 09:04 PM
Cool trade. You must use one of those Discount Brokers, you know, the ones that give you a discount on the price, cause it hasn't been anywhere near .0064 for over a week.

If folks have bought on your first mention in Jan they would be up some money. Most of these are coin flips either way, and eventually you get stuck with a ZERO if you keep playing, so money management is key.please read my post dated on 1/27/2017 right in this thread to help you clarify your misinformation.
good luck chief

AltonKelsey
02-22-2017, 10:44 PM
"then i bought more @ .0054 and yesterday @ .0064."

Last time I looked, yesterday meant the day before today.

Maybe you meant the 'next day'. All the excitement of this massive run up might be causing confusion.

AltonKelsey
02-23-2017, 12:11 PM
Up again today! You're making me look bad.

I did hedge by saying the worst garbage can often move the best.

And so it its. DRYS went from $1 to 115 back to a $1 again in no time.

lamboguy
02-23-2017, 12:51 PM
Up again today! You're making me look bad.

I did hedge by saying the worst garbage can often move the best.

And so it its. DRYS went from $1 to 115 back to a $1 again in no time.i don't want to make anyone look bad, just try to make some people money that want to.

by the way DRYS was not that big a loser if you consider those crazy dividends they paid. i used to trade them 5 years ago.

lamboguy
02-23-2017, 03:22 PM
i decided to sell half of whats left in the position at .0113. i expect it to go down tomorrow to maybe .008. if it does i will buy back in.

i am never in love with anything that moves this fast, so i can't be that far off taking some off the table.

lamboguy
02-23-2017, 04:24 PM
SFOR traded up 27% for the day. looking for a pullback tomorrow.

AltonKelsey
02-23-2017, 04:40 PM
Considering anyone owning DRYS in recent memory has lost 99.99999 of their money, what dividends are you talking about.

Hasn't even paid one since 2008

lamboguy
02-23-2017, 04:56 PM
Considering anyone owning DRYS in recent memory has lost 99.99999 of their money, what dividends are you talking about.

Hasn't even paid one since 2008
why even bother with dryships, there are a million others that you can clock.

i am waiting for a few junior minors to pull back that will have plenty of juice underneath them when they are ready to go. i need something to pay for my horse race betting losses.

AltonKelsey
02-23-2017, 06:03 PM
I love it when my questions are ignored :pound:

I'm selling everything and waiting for your next penny pick!

lamboguy
02-23-2017, 06:22 PM
I love it when my questions are ignored :pound:

I'm selling everything and waiting for your next penny pick!unfortunately outside of mining stocks, this is the first penny stock that has ever looked any good.

_______
02-24-2017, 04:37 PM
People do make money on pink sheets. The vast majority of them have higher quality footwear than Nigerian Prince scammers but it's the same game.

If anyone has made money on a sub-penny stock wearing nothing but socks, it's nothing to brag about. It's like making money in a pyramid scheme. You were a fool to buy and managed to sell to a greater fool.

It's exciting but not exactly a winning long term financial strategy.

Eventually, you run out of greater fools.

lamboguy
02-24-2017, 05:11 PM
today SFOR was down just under 8%.

i realize that everyone has stumbling blocks in front of their faces and prevents them from making good choices.

Tape Reader
02-24-2017, 08:54 PM
I love the action of penny stocks.

However, for those that are interested in real leverage I would suggest SPY twice-weekly options.

Thousand percent gains are possible on almost a daily basis with limited risk.

lamboguy
02-24-2017, 09:08 PM
I love the action of penny stocks.

However, for those that are interested in real leverage I would suggest SPY twice-weekly options.

Thousand percent gains are possible on almost a daily basis with limited risk.those are great for action, but the guys on the computers on the other side of your trade are tough as nails and hardly ever make mistakes.

on another note, silver looks unreal now. maybe a head fake for now, i would say the 4th quarter will be giant for the precious metals sector.

Tape Reader
02-24-2017, 10:24 PM
those are great for action, but the guys on the computers on the other side of your trade are tough as nails and hardly ever make mistakes.

Disagree. The bid/ask spread is a few pennies for a delta option. The volume (liquidity) is enormous. Execution is almost instant.

ReplayRandall
02-24-2017, 10:29 PM
Disagree. The bid/ask spread is a few pennies for a delta option. The volume (liquidity) is enormous. Execution is almost instant.

You know as well as I do that the only day to play those options is on a Friday...:coffee:

Tape Reader
02-24-2017, 10:43 PM
You know as well as I do that the only day to play those options is on a Friday...:coffee:

Not so. They now have Wednesday expiration. "Time decay" is a thing of the past.

ReplayRandall
02-24-2017, 11:19 PM
Not so. They now have Wednesday expiration. "Time decay" is a thing of the past.

Meant to infer that Friday is the BEST day to play this option......You agreed in the past with this post:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1889556&postcount=1

Tape Reader
02-25-2017, 11:32 AM
I don’t think that they had the Wednesday expiration when I typed that. Now “Friday” comes twice a week.

AltonKelsey
02-27-2017, 02:23 PM
I love the action of penny stocks.

However, for those that are interested in real leverage I would suggest SPY twice-weekly options.

Thousand percent gains are possible on almost a daily basis with limited risk.


slight exaggeration at best. and you'll lose 15 times before you cash once.

ps, is it leverage we seek or edge?

lamboguy
02-27-2017, 04:54 PM
SFOR down 6% today on very light volume.

still waiting for .0087 for a re-entry

highnote
02-27-2017, 05:11 PM
My prediction is that the is S&P will hit a high somewhere between 2367 and 2474 between now and January 12. That is a 10% to 15% gain over the July 14, 2016 close of 2152.

S&P closed at 2369.75 today. That is right at the low end of my prediction from July 14 and that I posted here a few months ago.

The last time I made a 6 month prediction here and posted it, I was correct about the direction of the S&P and the target price, but got the timing wrong.

I'm a little closer this time. I got the direction right and hit the low end of the target, but missed it by 5 weeks.

That's not a hole in one, but close enough for a birdie or maybe even an eagle. :)


A major "buy" indicator was triggered on July 8 when the Up Volume to Down Volume ratio on the NYSE exceeded 9 to 1. Two days later another "buy" indicator was triggered when the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio on the NYSE exceeded 2 to 1. This indicator is very rare, but is an extremely powerful momentum indicator. It happened 11 times from 1953 to 1993, but every time the market rose by nearly 10% over the next 6 months. The average gain was 15%. (I will calculate from 1993 to present and see if it holds true.)

The S&P closed today at 2150 -- right where it was back on July 12. Considering that September is one of the weakest months of the year. The market has plenty of upside.

The presidential election is a big factor. The market traditionally does better under democratic presidents than republicans. If Clinton wins the market should continue higher. Probably because the Fed will keep interest rates low and continue its policy of quantitative easing.

If Trump wins then all bets are off. :confused:

lamboguy
02-27-2017, 05:13 PM
the equity markets have been up 12 days in a row now. if there is anything i have learned in life, anything that keeps on going straight up is usually a precursor to some type of crash, usually within a year of making these extended highs.

highnote
02-27-2017, 05:22 PM
the equity markets have been up 12 days in a row now. if there is anything i have learned in life, anything that keeps on going straight up is usually a precursor to some type of crash, usually within a year of making these extended highs.

Agreed. We are getting near the top. However, the trend is your friend. I'm keeping a close eye on my portfolio and have tight stops in place.

As this slightly out of date chart shows, the S&P has gone 36 days without a 1% intra day move. It's actually up to about 50 days now.

Calm before the storm. Sell in May and go away.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/02/08/20161101_whatever1.jpg

AltonKelsey
02-27-2017, 09:23 PM
a) cant keep going up

b) trend is your friend


Someone is guaranteed to look smart, if only for a brief moment.

highnote
02-27-2017, 09:28 PM
a) cant keep going up

b) trend is your friend


Someone is guaranteed to look smart, if only for a brief moment.

Sometimes, nobody is wrong.

The key is knowing when to follow the wisdom of either statement.

reckless
02-27-2017, 09:55 PM
It usually serves the individual well when he is a contrarian and goes against the crowd.

But said individual must also be cognizant of the fact that sometimes the crowd is simply correct. Many do not know this.

highnote
02-27-2017, 10:06 PM
It usually serves the individual well when he is a contrarian and goes against the crowd.

But said individual must also be cognizant of the fact that sometimes the crowd is simply correct. Many do not know this.

Agreed. Blair Hull made hundreds of millions as a trend follower.

Some of the most successful futures traders are trend followers.

I think John Henry, owner of the Boston Red Sox, made a lot of his money as a trend follower. I'd have to double-check that, though.

Parkview_Pirate
03-01-2017, 01:39 PM
...That's not a hole in one, but close enough for a birdie or maybe even an eagle. :)

Well, I'd give you an eagle for the direction and numbers, but even you must admit the prediction of Hillary winning the election being good for the market was - well, not so accurate. That's assuming of course that Trump winning the election would be bad for the market.

Which begs the question, did the election results really affect the market anyway?

I was completely fooled by the melt up, and was hoping to make a swing trade on the election results, assuming there would be a big move, then a bounce back. But I thought that move would occur over several days, and not several hours, as those who went long on election eve made a killing.

But the market, unlike horse racing, only goes up, down or stays the same. It's easier to be "right" about a prediction, regardless of whether or not your logic was correct. This of course happens with the ponies too - though it takes more dumb luck to stumble on the accidental winner.

So what I have learned, or the conclusion that I have reached since the election, is that the dynamics of the market are still clearly in favor of the bulls. This defies some of the fundamentals, IMHO, but as the bulls have pointed out, you can't fight the tape. I'm not sure if the money is coming in from overseas, from the Feds, or from some alien source, but the dynamics to create any selling pressure at all are obviously not present.

It will be interesting to see how the debt ceiling and budget talks go in Congress in a couple of weeks, and how the market reacts. Trump has indicated that Federal spending is "out of control", which it is, but then he talks out of the other side of his mouth and wants to increase defense and infrastructure spending AND provide a huge tax break to the middle class. Until proven otherwise, I'm assuming his arithmetic skills are along the same lines as the magical thinking Bernanke and Yellen.

AltonKelsey
03-01-2017, 02:00 PM
Those SPY call options did one of those rare 15 bagger moves if you bought last night,

Easy game!

AltonKelsey
03-01-2017, 02:01 PM
Sometimes, nobody is wrong.

The key is knowing when to follow the wisdom of either statement.

If someone can do that reliably they would eventually have all the money in the world.

Clearly, easier said than done

highnote
03-01-2017, 02:28 PM
Well, I'd give you an eagle for the direction and numbers, but even you must admit the prediction of Hillary winning the election being good for the market was - well, not so accurate. That's assuming of course that Trump winning the election would be bad for the market.

Which begs the question, did the election results really affect the market anyway?


The FED did a lot of money printing from 2009 onwards. Their biggest fear was deflation and another great depression.

It usually takes about 18 months after money printing for the effects of all that extra money to be felt in the economy.

The FED just kept printing. I think it took longer than they expected to get the economy rolling again. But consider all the fear in the world back in 2009 it is not surprising it took so long.

So by July of 2016 the market was finding its feet and feeling confident. With Hillary being viewed as the likely next president that added to a sense of stability.

Trump being elected has not hurt the economy. But it's important to note that we have had a 10 or 11 percent increase in the market since last July. We could go a lot higher, but it would not be typical. I'm looking for about 4 percent more. That will bring us to May.

Sell in May and stay away.

Of course, if things look good in May then I'll stay in the market.

It's hard to say what will happen 2 months from now given the big runup. Will it continue higher right through May and all through the summer?

Hell if I know.

Right now the trend is up and the trend is your friend -- until it stabs you in the back. :D

lamboguy
03-01-2017, 06:28 PM
SFOR closed today at .0083

AltonKelsey
03-01-2017, 06:30 PM
Yeah, it's a shame Hillary didn't win, we would be up even more. :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

AltonKelsey
03-01-2017, 06:31 PM
SFOR closed today at .0083

The beauty of it is, you can tell folks you guarantee they're not risking more than a penny a share.

Tape Reader
03-01-2017, 08:54 PM
Those SPY call options did one of those rare 15 bagger moves if you bought last night,

Easy game!

SPY OPTION

SPY 238 call closed yesterday at: 0.13.

Closed today at: 1.83.

1292.65% gain.

Just saying the leverage is better than the lottery. Yes, one still needs to buy a ticket.

AltonKelsey
03-10-2017, 02:11 PM
I can give you 100 examples a day of stock market scores after they happen. Maybe more.

Kinda like redboarding.

lamboguy
03-10-2017, 03:08 PM
i re-entered SFOR today @ .0076. looking for a pop within a week to sell into.

_______
03-10-2017, 08:42 PM
i re-entered SFOR today @ .0076. looking for a pop within a week to sell into.

So the exact low of the day. It must be nice to be Nostradamus.

AltonKelsey
03-11-2017, 12:14 AM
The only question is, was he the whole million shares for a whopping 7600 or only 1/2 of that.

lamboguy
03-15-2017, 11:00 AM
i just sold a third of my position on this 33 1/3% pop this morning. i will be looking to re-enter somewhere below a penny.

AltonKelsey
03-15-2017, 01:07 PM
Aint it something, they're wasting their time trying to hit pick 5's and we're minting money on sure things right here!

lamboguy
03-15-2017, 01:23 PM
Aint it something, they're wasting their time trying to hit pick 5's and we're minting money on sure things right here!this game is just a question of how much you want to pick up

lamboguy
03-15-2017, 01:48 PM
Aint it something, they're wasting their time trying to hit pick 5's and we're minting money on sure things right here!in case you are playing this thing, to me it looks like this has another pop coming within a few weeks. i am probably going to buy back some shares if it pulls back to the high .008's.

lamboguy
03-15-2017, 04:28 PM
SFOR finished the day up 51%. these are the kind of moves that Alton Kelsey loves.

sour grapes
03-16-2017, 07:41 AM
this is pure gambling with a worthless stock,looks like a lot of suckers were left holding the bag.Wouldnt touch it with your money.

lamboguy
03-16-2017, 04:14 PM
SFOR up another 20% today.

lamboguy
03-17-2017, 04:21 PM
SFOR down 3.3% today

truthfully, this is one the very best stocks i have ever seen my entire life. i would have classified it as a living lock, but like everyone else i always have my doubts about pink sheet stocks. but this stock has it all, fundamentally and technically.

BaffertsWig
03-18-2017, 09:11 AM
this is pure gambling with a worthless stock,looks like a lot of suckers were left holding the bag.Wouldnt touch it with your money.


as are most penny pump and dumps. Learned this lesson the hard way when I first got into trading. No thanks!

lamboguy
03-18-2017, 10:04 AM
as are most penny pump and dumps. Learned this lesson the hard way when I first got into trading. No thanks!if you date back through this thread i made everyone aware of my thoughts on penny stocks. i found this stock 100% accidentally. i was looking up Salesforce.com and Strikeforce appeared.

i do understand that its very hard to believe that a stock that is this cheap can be any good. i posted my pick knowing full well that most will doubt me. if you date back in time i have posted other winning plays with gold and and gold miners. i think i even had a regular stock once upon a time. still i understand that it is very tough to be open minded about anything, people get set in their ways and you just can't change the way they think. this is what makes a market in anything.

good luck

lamboguy
03-20-2017, 09:13 AM
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/strikeforce-sues-gemalto-vasco-entrust--secureauth-for-patent-infringement-20170320-00427

lamboguy
03-20-2017, 11:01 AM
law firm Ropes and Grey went undefeated last year with cases like this one going 43-0 for the year including 3 supreme court wins.

lamboguy
03-20-2017, 12:24 PM
https://search.rpxcorp.com/lit/madce-187455

lamboguy
03-20-2017, 04:13 PM
SFOR down 7% today

lamboguy
03-21-2017, 04:09 PM
SFOR down 12%.

probably heading a little lower from here which will make a great re-entry point. this thing is going down with no volume at all.

AltonKelsey
03-21-2017, 04:14 PM
SFOR down 3.3% today

truthfully, this is one the very best stocks i have ever seen my entire life. i would have classified it as a living lock, but like everyone else i always have my doubts about pink sheet stocks. but this stock has it all, fundamentally and technically.

I think this might qualify you for Medicaid benefits. ;)

lamboguy
03-21-2017, 04:54 PM
I think this might qualify you for Medicaid benefits. ;)
just out of curiosity, what the hell is that supposed to mean?

_______
03-21-2017, 07:39 PM
Hoping today is just a start on the volatility. It's been way too easy to just be complacent in this market.

A little fear would do a lot of good.

Here's hoping the market gets to be front page news.

ReplayRandall
03-21-2017, 08:30 PM
Hoping today is just a start on the volatility. It's been way too easy to just be complacent in this market.

A little fear would do a lot of good.

Here's hoping the market gets to be front page news.

The DOW traded 166 million shares less today than on Mar 17th, today wasn't even remotely in the "volatility" range......It just plain SOLD OFF today, with little to no resistance. So, what happened to the perennial "dip" buyers?? Where were they today, on spring break? Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see who shows up in the next 3 trading days, a Black Swan perhaps?

Mar 17, 2017
DOW Volume- 535,280,000
20,914.62 -19.93


Mar 21, 2017
DOW Volume- 369,320,000
20,668.01 -237.85

lamboguy
03-22-2017, 12:57 PM
If many have trouble imagining a 10%-20% loss in the stock market, they shouldn’t be in stocks as simple as that. Price is what we pay & the value is what we get. Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, band or bonds, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. If we are happy to sit at our desk and not take any risk, we all be sitting at our desk for the next 20 years.The individual investors or traders like many here should act consistently as an investor and not as a trader & they should be able to justify every purchase they make and each price they pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies them that they are getting more than their money’s worth for their purchases.

I think we all have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.

And the market is filled with many garage/small companies growing into a 10m sq ft/large companies and this
SFOR has every ingredient I look for to surpass my all past investments.

AltonKelsey
03-22-2017, 02:02 PM
seriously, if a turd like sfor is the best stock you've seen in decades, then what can I say.

its a pure gamble. you have no idea what the courts will decide.

lamboguy
03-22-2017, 02:53 PM
seriously, if a turd like sfor is the best stock you've seen in decades, then what can I say.

its a pure gamble. you have no idea what the courts will decide.they already have 1 case that they won against microsoft and all these other cases are very similar to that one.

this is very first pink sheet stock i have ever played other than mining stocks, but most of them were on the toronto or venture exchanges. but i have had other company's that i sold to soon that were big names in their infancy stages. such as EMC, Microsoft, Amazon, Pixar, Qualcom. they all look the same before they start to make their moves. everything has to go right for them.

AltonKelsey
03-22-2017, 04:05 PM
sfor is not in an infancy stage. more like an inch from death.

its a gamble at best, but not a sure loser, so good luck.

_______
03-22-2017, 04:23 PM
sfor is not in an infancy stage. more like an inch from death.

its a gamble at best, but not a sure loser, so good luck.

The best argument in it's favor is that it can continue to be a scrapping the absolute bottom of the barrel patent troll.

Unfortunately for the larger economy, that remains an economically viable business plan for companies that understand the cost of settling is almost always less than the cost of litigating.

You hire some lawyers willing to work for a percentage of the settlement so your outlay is zero and just hope that for actual multi-billion dollar enterprises to throw money at you instead of throwing more into litigating.

lamboguy
03-22-2017, 04:36 PM
this one is not that much of a gamble. for those of you that are familiar with Ropes and Grey, they are a top law firm that does not like to take on losing cases, its very bad for business. so far they have successfully sued, won and settled a case with Microsoft for SFOR.

monday when they announced the legal suit against Gemalto, which happens to be a large cap stock in Europe, their stock tanked 20% for the day.

the big money in this stock will not be their business plan or their law suits, there will be a company that buys them out to avoid being sued. i can't promise you that will happen, but i have seen others where it did in the past. either way it really can't turn out that bad for SFOR.

i didn't have to post this stock here either, i am not asking for anything. but i certainly don't mind anyone taking the other side of the play. that is what makes a market.

_______
03-22-2017, 06:24 PM
The DOW traded 166 million shares less today than on Mar 17th, today wasn't even remotely in the "volatility" range......It just plain SOLD OFF today, with little to no resistance. So, what happened to the perennial "dip" buyers?? Where were they today, on spring break? Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see who shows up in the next 3 trading days, a Black Swan perhaps?

Mar 17, 2017
DOW Volume- 535,280,000
20,914.62 -19.93


Mar 21, 2017
DOW Volume- 369,320,000
20,668.01 -237.85

Tomorrow's vote in the House will be key.

I can't imagine the current bill getting through the Senate but at a minimum getting something out of the House is built in.

If it doesn't happen, it will suddenly occur to everyone that tax reform, infrastructure, and the rest of the Trump economic agenda is at risk.

I'm pretty sure they will find a way to get the votes but if not, look out below.

AltonKelsey
03-23-2017, 01:00 PM
Patent trolling has been a disaster for investors.

Besides the 99.9999% loss in sfor , we also have VHC

lamboguy
03-23-2017, 02:11 PM
Patent trolling has been a disaster for investors.

Besides the 99.9999% loss in sfor , we also have VHCwhatever you say chief.

i say these low prices on this stock won't be around to much longer. i am sure you have done your homework on this stock, because i have and i love it even more now. opportunity's like this one don't present itself that often in life.

AltonKelsey
03-23-2017, 02:59 PM
Have to say, it sure is in play.

If you can time the moves and not get caught holding a big fat bag one day, money can be made.

lamboguy
03-23-2017, 03:13 PM
Have to say, it sure is in play.

If you can time the moves and not get caught holding a big fat bag one day, money can be made.
i have done a little of that because of the volatility in the stock now. but the company does have a real product. they are one big order away from getting the party started on this.

they settled the Microsoft case for $9.7 million and paid off half their debt with the money. if the company was a scam the CEO would have given himself a raise in pay and scooped the money.

they have 6 more cases going on that are the same size as Microsoft. Ropes and Grey have taken on the case, that is no small feat either.

more than likely one of these that are being sued are going to buy out SFOR. its really just a question of when. it might be real soon. they would be paying about 5 times the amount of money that they are going to get sued for and own the patent all to themselves.

ReplayRandall
03-23-2017, 03:56 PM
Tomorrow's vote in the House will be key.

I can't imagine the current bill getting through the Senate but at a minimum getting something out of the House is built in.

If it doesn't happen, it will suddenly occur to everyone that tax reform, infrastructure, and the rest of the Trump economic agenda is at risk.

I'm pretty sure they will find a way to get the votes but if not, look out below.
As of right now, the House of Representatives has delayed its vote on repealing and replacing parts of the Affordable Care Act after Republican leaders failed to rally enough support to pass the bill...

lamboguy
03-23-2017, 04:27 PM
SFOR went up 17% but really wasn't even worth posting because there was no volume just like the rest of week. its probably going to finish this week the same way it started for whatever that is worth.

_______
03-23-2017, 04:29 PM
As of right now, the House of Representatives has delayed its vote on repealing and replacing parts of the Affordable Care Act after Republican leaders failed to rally enough support to pass the bill...

I just heard Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows press conference. He said he is currently a "no" but trying to get to "yes".

There is no threat to them from any Democratic oppononent. Their seats are only at risk from a more conservative primary opponent. I think the Freedom Caucus is feeling pretty bold and isn't afraid of any fallout from this failing. Trump's threat to campaign against them is empty.

Hindsight is easy, but it's clear that putting this first on the agenda was a mistake. Tax reform would have been better for the markets and probably an easier lift. And I think that could also be at risk if replace fails.

But Trump has shown himself to be a good negotiator so maybe he pulls a rabbit out of the hat and threads what looks like a very tiny needle to get something passed in both the house and senate.

The market has just assumed tax reform would happen at some point in 2017. I think it may wake up to the possibility it won't tomorrow or Monday.

lamboguy
03-23-2017, 06:48 PM
https://www.insiderfinancial.com/with-microsoft-corporation-nasdaqmsft-as-precedent-strikeforce-technologies-inc-otcmktssfor-is-trying-to-cash-in-on-patents-again/120296/

AltonKelsey
03-23-2017, 10:47 PM
some fun math

$9,000,000 is what per share?

$3 ?

30 cents

Try 0.003913043
Just sayin.

PS This is even more interesting. Bullish , bearish, huh?

http://www.americanlawyer.com/id=1202780785662/Ropes--Gray-to-Shed-Lawyers-Retreat-From-Patent-Work-in-Firm-Shakeup?slreturn=20170223225108

reckless
03-23-2017, 11:23 PM
I just heard Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows press conference. He said he is currently a "no" but trying to get to "yes".

There is no threat to them from any Democratic oppononent. Their seats are only at risk from a more conservative primary opponent. I think the Freedom Caucus is feeling pretty bold and isn't afraid of any fallout from this failing. Trump's threat to campaign against them is empty.

Hindsight is easy, but it's clear that putting this first on the agenda was a mistake. Tax reform would have been better for the markets and probably an easier lift. And I think that could also be at risk if replace fails.

But Trump has shown himself to be a good negotiator so maybe he pulls a rabbit out of the hat and threads what looks like a very tiny needle to get something passed in both the house and senate.

The market has just assumed tax reform would happen at some point in 2017. I think it may wake up to the possibility it won't tomorrow or Monday.

All Paul Ryan needed to do was to present the GOP's 2015 ACA replacement bill that was vetoed by Barry Obama, and there'd be no problem getting the votes needed. It would have sailed through the House and it would have been very close to passing in the Senate too, imo.

But noooo. The village idiot lied to the President when he said he had the votes when he never did at any time. You see, Ryan's real agenda is to derail the Trump Train and kiss the arses of the insurance companies and his corporate donors, so America, be damned.

Paul Ryan and the GOP House leadership are the real losers tonight and forever. In time, he and the entire GOP leadership need to be replaced. And they will.

It was a bad bill from jump street and I am glad of its demise even though Trump will lose some political capital. I'm sorry that President Trump didn't call me for advice for if he did, I'd have let it be known that the Ryan Care bill was doomed, and by the way, fire Reinze Priebus too, ASAP. :D President Trump and America doesn't need a schmuck and a Ryan acolyte advising him, for sure.

Yes, Trump will get tarred somewhat for his support of Ryan Care but that will last a day or two. And when that ends, so will the 'leadership' of Paul Ryan; Trump takes over now and he will get things done, as we all know he usually does.

AltonKelsey
03-24-2017, 12:46 AM
You can never have significant health care reform without dismantling the heath care system itself, expunging the waste , fraud , and greed.

lamboguy
03-24-2017, 07:11 AM
All Paul Ryan needed to do was to present the GOP's 2015 ACA replacement bill that was vetoed by Barry Obama, and there'd be no problem getting the votes needed. It would have sailed through the House and it would have been very close to passing in the Senate too, imo.

But noooo. The village idiot lied to the President when he said he had the votes when he never did at any time. You see, Ryan's real agenda is to derail the Trump Train and kiss the arses of the insurance companies and his corporate donors, so America, be damned.

Paul Ryan and the GOP House leadership are the real losers tonight and forever. In time, he and the entire GOP leadership need to be replaced. And they will.

It was a bad bill from jump street and I am glad of its demise even though Trump will lose some political capital. I'm sorry that President Trump didn't call me for advice for if he did, I'd have let it be known that the Ryan Care bill was doomed, and by the way, fire Reinze Priebus too, ASAP. :D President Trump and America doesn't need a schmuck and a Ryan acolyte advising him, for sure.

Yes, Trump will get tarred somewhat for his support of Ryan Care but that will last a day or two. And when that ends, so will the 'leadership' of Paul Ryan; Trump takes over now and he will get things done, as we all know he usually does.you have this completely right as well. those republicans are no better than Bush, Romney or Obama. Trump has a real fight on his hands now.

lamboguy
03-24-2017, 04:28 PM
SFOR closes the day up 9%, slightly up for the week on no volume whatsoever.

not sure what to make of the volume on a low price stock like this one. 2 ways to look at it though since the horse did have a huge run and there are no sellers in the stock. the other way to look at it is that there are no new buyers in the stock as well.

my conclusion is that its getting scary now and could get destroyed in a new york minute.

i had 1 million shares up to sell and got filled for 220,000 of them today. gonna wait the weekend out and see what comes up next week.

_______
03-25-2017, 04:16 PM
The economy seems to be doing great regardless of any shenanigans in Washington which we can all be thankful for.

But the market has priced in infrastructure/tax reform. I would put the odds of even one of them happening before the August break as sub 50%.

When it settles in that having one (divided) party controlling all the levers in Washington isn't all that different from the divided government we had for the last 6 years, the market will adjust.

Expectations will be set lower. What does it mean if there isn't repatriation of all the overseas cash? What if 2017 tax rates are the same as 2016?

That realization is about to dawn across the board. It will hopefully be a gross overreaction when it does. Corporate profits will still be better in 2017 than they were in 2016.

I've been waiting since mid-December for the shine to come off everyone's new toy.

lamboguy
03-27-2017, 04:43 PM
SFOR only up 5% today

Tape Reader
03-27-2017, 06:21 PM
How do commissions figure into buying a stock like this?

lamboguy
03-27-2017, 06:32 PM
How do commissions figure into buying a stock like this?i deal with E-Trade and they are charging me $10 a trade on no matter how many shares i buy or sell.

this is a tough stock to get a complete fill with, today i sold 280,000 shares out of the million that i tried to move out. that is a good day for me, there have been days that i have only been able to trade under 100,000 shares.

volume has been very light the last 2 weeks.

AltonKelsey
03-27-2017, 06:38 PM
Actually volume is pretty normal for this stock. The occasional big volume day is only on news or some other driver, like a pump.

Should have been easy enough to sell a million today, if you really wanted to.

lamboguy
03-28-2017, 04:25 PM
SFOR up 11% today

AltonKelsey
03-28-2017, 04:37 PM
All you need now is for Goldman Sachs to call it their Best Idea(c) and put a $5 target on it, and you can stop trying to hit those pick 6's f:liar:r the rest of your life.

lamboguy
03-28-2017, 05:13 PM
i don't play the pick 6 and my target is .07.

AltonKelsey
03-28-2017, 08:08 PM
good enough . on its way to $1 I'll know where I can buy 1 million shares for 7c

lamboguy
03-29-2017, 11:49 AM
the reason why the move in this stock is that the CEO of SFOR is meeting with the Department of Defense to sell them out of band authentication product that they want.

supposedly SFOR has the patent for what they want. getting the deal is going to be the make or break for this company.

i just found this out this morning and the stock is up very slightly so far today with the same low volume.

lamboguy
03-29-2017, 04:27 PM
dojji today, SFOR closed completely flat for the session.

lamboguy
03-30-2017, 04:21 PM
SFOR down 4% today

AltonKelsey
03-30-2017, 05:10 PM
Epic. All we need is for potus to tweet #MSGA

Make
Strikeforce
Great
Again

AltonKelsey
04-03-2017, 02:27 PM
This might be the best money making thread on Pace, yet not 1 in 1000 read it

lamboguy
04-03-2017, 04:08 PM
update for friday SFOR up 2%

update for monday SFOR up over 40%

AltonKelsey
04-03-2017, 04:29 PM
This keeps going they will call you

TwoLamboguy

PaceAdvantage
04-03-2017, 04:34 PM
This keeps going they will call you

TwoLamboguyIf you're posting just to mock, I suggest you stop.

AltonKelsey
04-03-2017, 04:51 PM
If you're posting just to mock, I suggest you stop.


How is that a mock? Stocks killing it. If he sold he'd be making 200%.

I wish they'd mock me.

PaceAdvantage
04-03-2017, 05:30 PM
How is that a mock? Stocks killing it. If he sold he'd be making 200%.

I wish they'd mock me.Guess I've interpreted your posts in this thread incorrectly then. My apologies.

lamboguy
04-03-2017, 05:57 PM
it looks like the main roadblock for this stock is coming at .025 which is very close now. if it bust's through there with more volume then .035 is in the cards for this one.

i found this stock because i was looking up something else and it was a complete accident. i swear i haven't seen anything this good since the 90's.

AltonKelsey
04-03-2017, 08:17 PM
Guess I've interpreted your posts in this thread incorrectly then. My apologies.

No problem. A stock like this can make you a lot of money or cost you 50% or more of the investment in very short order . Doesn't matter what I think of the play, the market likes the potential upside , so early buyers can get well even if the court cases don't pan out.

If you follow my posts on it, I was increasingly bullish , if only from a technical standpoint. Maybe the humor is hard to follow ;)

You see these movers all the time in penny land.

lamboguy
04-04-2017, 04:08 PM
SFOR only up 11% today.

this is about a 4 bagger so far since my original post on February 15, 2017