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PA 2000 IE User's Guide

Be absolutely sure to read and understand all that follows, including the End User License Agreement which appears at the end of this document.

Table Of Contents

  1. The Program

  2. Downloading Data

  3. Enter Late Scratches

  4. View/Print Races

  5. What The Printouts Tell You (Explanation Of Various Data Columns)

  6. ME2 Wagering Method

  7. V2HM Wagering Method

  8. Important Note

  9. End User License Agreement

The Program

Pace Advantage 2000 Internet Edition is an easy to use application which will allow you to do three things with the data you download from PaceAdvantage.com:

1) Enter Late Scratches -- Program automatically recalculates the odds line after late scratches are entered.

2) View Any Race On Screen

3) Print Any Race(s) On Your Printer

To start PA 2000 IE, simply click the Windows Start menu, select Programs, and click on PaceAdvantage2000-IE menu item.

To get past the opening splash screen, either press any key on your keyboard, or click the splash screen with the mouse.

Now you are presented with the Main Menu.  From here, you can select one of three options:  Scratch Horses, View/Print Races, or Quit.  Quit is rather self-explanatory, so we will move onto a more detailed explanation of the other two menu items.

Downloading Data

Data is easily downloaded on our website in the Members Log In section of the site.  When you click on a race date in the Download Data section, you must always save the EXE self-extracting archive file to the c:\tpr directory on your hard drive.  After the download is finished, you may RUN the self-extracting EXE file in the c:\tpr directory by double clicking the file and go about using the PA 2000 software.  Once the racing day is finished, you are advised to either delete the old EXE file along with all of the individual races for the day, or store it in a separate archive directory on your hard drive in case you want to consult the races at a later date.  Since you will be receiving anywhere between 60 and 120+ races each day you download a file, things could get very confusing having to sort through that many races, so you are strongly advised to clean out old races at the end of every racing day.

Enter Late Scratches

Clicking on Scratch Horses from the Main Menu will bring up the PA 2000 Late Scratch Utility screen.  This simple application allows you to select any race currently in your c:\tpr directory by clicking on the race name in the left hand file list box.  If for some reason you have a race data file stored in a directory other then c:\tpr, you can click on the drive and directory boxes in the lower left corner of the screen to navigate to the proper file.  However, for all intents and purposes, you should ALWAYS store ALL of your current race day files in the c:\tpr directory, or else the program will NOT function properly.

All race file names begin with the letters RAC, are followed by the race number and date, and end in the three letter track code.  For example, the 5th race at Belmont on July 6 would be named RAC50706.BEL.  The only exception to this is races numbered 10 and above.  For our purposes, race 10 would be signified with a 0 (zero), and races 11-?? would be signified with a letter, starting with A=11, B=12, C=13 and so on.   So in the prior example, if it had been race 10 at Belmont on July 6, the race would be named RAC00706.BEL.  If it had been race 12, the race would be named RACB0706.BEL.

Clicking on any race file name will bring up a list of horses in the right hand box.  Clicking on any name in this box will drop that horse into the Horses To Be Scratched box on the bottom left of the Late Scratch Utility screen.  If you click on a horses name by accident and don't want him scratched, you may simply click on that horses name in the Horses To Be Scratched box, and the horse will be moved back up into the full list of horses.  After you have chosen the horse(s) to scratch, press the PROCESS SCRATCHES button, and the program will scratch the chosen horses.  WARNING:  After you press the PROCESS SCRATCHES button, the horse(s) you have chosen to scratch will be PERMANENTLY SCRATCHED.  The only way to get the horse(s) back would be to RUN the self-extracting .EXE file for the race day in question that you downloaded from paceadvantage.com, and extract the race in question, overwriting what is currently in the c:\tpr directory.  Then you can go back and re-scratch the proper horse(s).

One additional note about the scratch utility.  On occasion, you will open a race and you will see that there will be a horse(s) placed automatically in the Horses To Be Scratched box, followed by the words Auto Scratch.  This is because this horse could not be rated for whatever reason, and will be scratched automatically.  PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE ANY HORSES PLACED AUTOMATICALLY IN THE HORSES TO BE SCRATCHED BOX.

View/Print Races

Clicking on the View/Print Races button from the Main Menu will bring up the PA 2000 Select Race window.  On this screen, you will see all the races listed that reside in the c:\tpr directory of your hard drive.   Race names are handled a bit differently in this screen than in the scratch utility screen.  On this screen, the race names are more intuitive, and are sorted according to track.  Using the example from before, if we were to choose the 5th race at Belmont on July 6, we'd click on the following file name:  BEL-50706.  If we were to choose the 10th race at Belmont on the same day, we'd click on BEL-A(10)0706.   The letter A is used in this case to facilitate the sort.  As a final example, if we were to choose the 13th race at Belmont on the same day, we'd click on BEL-D(13)0706.  Although it may be confusing at first, try not to associate the meanings of letters on this screen (they really mean nothing, simply pay attention to the race number in parenthesis for any race number greater than 9) with the meaning of letters on the scratch screen, where they carry greater meaning.

Double click on any race name, or single click on the check box to the left of any race name to select a race.  When printing races, you may select any number of races.   When viewing a race, you may only select one race at a time.

After highlighting a race name and pressing the View Race button, a second screen will pop up showing the data generated by PA 2000 for that race.  Included in the data screen will be the race conditions at the top of the screen, followed by the horse program number, horse name, Running Style and Quirin Speed Points, Value Odds Line, Projected Running Times in seconds, Projected Turn Time in Feet Per Second, Projected Final Fraction in Feet Per Second (LF), and Days Since Last Race.

After highlighting a race name, or multiple race names and pressing the Print Race(s) button, PA 2000 will prep the selected races for printing, and inform you when it has finished processing the print job, at which point you will be able to OK the print job, or CANCEL the print job before it goes to your printer.  Remember, you may select from 1 to as many races as you have in your c:\tpr directory to process for printing.

What The Printouts Tell You

The data is displayed in a very easy to use manner, which conveys a lot of information in a little space.  Starting from the left side of the printout, I will explain what each of the listed items mean.  When viewing a race on the screen, the beaten lengths (BL1, BL2, and BL3) columns are omitted.

Starting at the top of a race, you will find the race file name, which itself conveys some information, namely the race number, race date, and track code.  For example, RAC30219.AQU means the third race at Aqueduct on February 19.  In addition, this race file name is the same exact file name you will find in your TPR directory on your "C" drive.  If you ever want to go into your TPR directory and delete old races, you can easily see the date and track name you are deleting.

Next to the race file name is the distance of the race as well as the class.   One mile and seventy yard races are classified as 8.7f and one mile and forty yard races are classified as 8.4f, although in reality, they are not really 8.7 furlongs or 8.4 furlongs, but this is a concession to legacy programming.  Class is fairly self-explanatory, with STK=Stakes, CLM=Claiming, ALW=Allowance, MCL=Maiden Claiming, and MSW=Maiden Special Weights.

The next line on the printout is an information line listing abbreviations of all the following columns of data.  I will explain the abbreviations one by one as follows:

  • PROGR NUM/NAME:   This logically refers to the official program number in parenthesis on the extreme left hand side of the printout, followed by the first 12 letters of the horses name.

  • RS:  This is the running style assigned to the horse.  E stands for Early types who tend to run on or very close to the early pace.  P stands for horses who press the early pace no more than a few lengths behind.  S horses are those who come from off the pace, usually making one big late run at the tiring leaders.  E/P types are those that can't be classified as a pure E or pure P.  And NA stands for not available.

  • Q:  This is the Quirin speed point number assigned to the horse.  This is a positional rating that indicates a horse's propensity to be on the lead or up close at the first call of a race.   The higher the number, the more likely the horse is to be close to or on the lead at the first call.

  • ODDS:  This is the odds that PA 2000 has assigned to the horse based on proprietary calculations.

  • BL1:  The projected beaten lengths the horse will be behind at the first call.  A rating of 0 beaten lengths means the horse should be on the lead.

  • BL2:  The projected beaten lengths the horse will be behind at the second call.  A rating of 0 beaten lengths indicates the horse should be on the lead.

  • BL3:  The projected beaten lengths at the finish line.  A rating of 0 means that this is the horse PA 2000 feels will win the race.

  • T1:  The projected first call time PA 2000 feels the horse will run, presented in tenths of a second.   Of course, the lower the number here, the faster the horse should run.

  • T2:  The projected second call time PA 2000 feels the horse will run, presented in tenths of a second.

  • T3:  The projected final time PA 2000 feels the horse will run, presented in tenths of a second.  Note:   A rating of 110.7 here does not mean a final time of 1:10.7 like one might find a common 6 furlong race to be run.  110.7 here means 110.7 seconds, or in race time, 1:50 3/5ths.  One minute (60 seconds) + 50 seconds = 110 seconds.

  • TT:  The projected TURN TIME of the race.  Turn time, according to Tom Brohamer, is the most important part of the race.  This internal fraction rating is presented in feet per second, and measures the time taken to run between the 1st and 2nd calls.  The higher the number the better.

  • LF:  The projected LATE FRACTION of the race.  This internal fraction rating is presented in feet per second, and measures the time taken to run between the 2nd and final calls.  The higher the number the better.  Typically, the horses with the highest numbers here will be your closers in the race.  This rating is particularly deadly in turf races.

  • DSL:  Days since last race.  This is a measurment in days which tells you how long the horse has been off since its last race.

All numerical ratings presented are adjusted track to track, distance to distance, both fractional and final times.

ME2 Wagering Method

Currently, our most profitable wagering method used with Pace Advantage 2000 Internet Edition is the ME2 Wagering Method, or Market Efficiency Exploitation method.  A little background about the discovery of this powerful but demanding method of wagering.

Some time ago, I had decided to place my thousands of race results into a Microsoft ACCESS database and try and discern if there were obvious factors that may help predict a win, and help avoid betting on losers.  One factor almost immediately popped out at me after running a set of queries on the data, and after five plus months of testing, it has proven itself month after month.

I call it ME2 and here is how it works.

(Before I describe the method, let me say that you MUST make sure and consult the SPOTLIGHT tracks that are listed on the home page each and every day.  ME2 is NOT designed to be used on every single track.  Profits will be more likely obtained if you STICK TO THE SPOTLIGHT TRACK LIST POSTED EVERY DAY ON THE FRONT PAGE.   The spotlight tracks are tracks that my research shows are currently showing a profit, and will likely continue to do so).

The method is quite simple really.  All of the thousands of bets that I analyzed were overlaid top choices according to the odds line produced by PA 2000.   By top choice, I mean the horse listed first (lowest PA 2000 odds) on your printout or view screen.   (In the case of a tie, consider both horses, and if applicable, bet both horses).   Every top choice bet also had to be at least 9/2 or greater at post time on the tote board.  What was fascinating about the analysis I had performed was that most of my losers were TOO overlaid, while most of my winners were only moderately overlaid. The ROI on the vastly overlaid bets was much lower than the ROI on the moderately overlaid bets.  After further analysis, I came up with the following wagering rules:

  • Rule 1: Never bet a horse other than your top choice to win.

  • Rule 2: Never bet a horse who isn't an overlay, or in other words, never bet a horse who is going off at post time odds that are less than the PA 2000 generated odds line.

  • Rule 3: Never bet a horse at under 9/2, overlay or not.

  • Rule 4: Never bet a horse who is an overlay by more than 3 odds points.  This is the KEY to the ME2 wagering method.  What I mean by this is that if your PA 2000 odds line has a top choice rated at 2/1,this means you can bet the horse at 9/2 or higher, but no more than 3 odds points away from 2/1, meaning that 5/1 is the highest price you can accept on this horse (2/1 + 3 odds points = 5/1 max).  Ultimately, the only two prices you can place a bet on this horse are 9/2 and 5/1.  The 3 point rule is the most important rule in this whole method, and what it ultimately means is that any horse that PA 2000 rates at 1.4/1 or under will NEVER be a bet, since 1.4/1 + 3 odds points equals 4.4/1, which is less than our 9/2 (or 4.5/1) minimum odds requirements.

You can now see why this is called the Market Efficiency Exploitation Method, since the 3 point rule is used in deference to the crowd's well known prowess at setting an efficient win pool.  If PA 2000 sets the odds of a horse at 3-1, and he's going off at 13-1, sure it's a great overlay, but there is a reason why he is 13-1 and I have proven that, at least where it concerns PA 2000, one will do well to avoid horses like that in the long run.  Betting horses who are overlays but are getting some action means a higher win percentage while still sticking to the concept of value betting.

I mentioned the word demanding at the beginning of this section for a reason.   ME2 is not a very forgiving method of play, as it requires a great deal of self control and discipline to make it successful.  If you only play one track, there are going to be many days where you don't get to make a single wager.  This is the way the method was designed, and it would be in your best interest to play multiple tracks while using this method.  Since the method averages a little less than one play per ten race card, if you are an at-home horseplayer with access to YouBet or a phone wagering account, you owe it to yourself to play multiple tracks in order to maintain a satisfactory level of action.  Nothing is more satisfying than waiting for your spots and realizing a positive ROI month after month.  Sure the bets to races handicapped ratio is quite low for this method, but nobody ever said that beating the races was easy.   It takes a little work and a lot of patience.

Of course, I will be continually exploring this and other methods of wagering, as well as providing members of PaceAdvantage.com with the most effective methods I discover and the most effective tracks to play them.  If you need further clarification on anything, please don't hesitate to contact me via e-mail, or try and catch me in the War Room.

==PA

V2HM Wagering Method

V2HM stands for Verra 2 Horse Method, and is named after its inventor, a customer of mine who used to use a simple 2 horse win bet procedure with his own betting line, but found it also works quite well with the PA 2000 odds line, and he now uses it with my data, saving himself a lot of work.  He shared it with me one day a few months ago, and after an incredible April, where it returned upwards of 60 cents for every dollar wagered, I am now releasing this method as an official PA 2000 wagering method.

Now, before I describe the method, let me say that you MUST make sure and consult the SPOTLIGHT tracks that are listed on the home page each and every day.  V2HM is NOT designed to be used on every single track.  Profits will be more likely obtained if you STICK TO THE SPOTLIGHT TRACK LIST POSTED EVERY DAY ON THE FRONT PAGE.  The spotlight tracks are tracks that my research shows are currently showing a profit, and will likely continue to do so.

With that out of the way, let's describe the V2HM method.  In the paragraphs that follows, please remember that when I speak of top choice and second choice, this means the horse with the lowest PA 2000 odds, and the horse with the second lowest PA 2000 odds.  V2HM has a few simple rules that should be well understood after only one pass:

  • Rule 1: Both Top Choice and Second Choice Must Be Overlays

  • Rule 2: Top Choice Must Be At Least 4-1 On The Tote Board

  • Rule 3: Second Choice Must Be At Least 8-1 On The Tote Board

  • Rule 4: If Rules 1-3 are met, bet BOTH horses to WIN

Note that unlike the ME2 wagering method, V2HM has no maximum odds cutoff.  This means that your top choice and second choice could be rated at 2-1 and 6-1 by PA 2000, and you'd have a qualifying V2HM wager if the top choice went off at 12-1 and the second choice went off at 10-1.

Important Note

On occasion, you may find races that appear to be missing horses, or you may find races whose data indicates the race has been handicapped at a different distance than that which appears in the official program.  In the case of missing horses, this is because the horse for whatever reason was unrateable by PA 2000.  In the case of different distances, this is because PA 2000 does not have pars for that particular distance for that particular track, so we handicap the race at the next closest distance.

On the extremely rare occasion where a race contains many unrateable horses (first time starters, first time turfers or first time dirt runners), we may exclude the race altogether.  If you find a race is missing, check to make sure it doesn't include a bunch of unrateable horses before contacting us and telling us we forgot a race.

End User License Agreement:

PACE ADVANTAGE 2000 INTERNET EDITION, INCLUDING ITS CODE, DOCUMENTATION, APPEARANCES, STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION, IS A PROPRIETARY PRODUCT OF PaceAdvantage.Com AND IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT AND OTHER LAWS. TITLE TO THE PROGRAM, OR ANY COPY, MODIFICATION OR MERGED PORTION OF THE PROGRAM, SHALL AT ALL TIMES REMAIN WITH PaceAdvantage.Com.

PaceAdvantage.Com does not warrant that the functions contained in the Program will meet your requirements or that the operation of the Program will be entirely error free or appear precisely as described in the Program documentation.

PACE ADVANTAGE 2000 INTERNET EDITION IS PROVIDED AND LICENSED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.

TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, IN NO EVENT WILL PaceAdvantage.Com BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ANY SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING DAMAGES FOR LOST PROFITS, BUSINESS INTERRUPTION, LOST INFORMATION LOSS OF RECORDED DATA OR OTHER PECUNIARY LOSS), ARISING OUT OF THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE PACE ADVANTAGE 2000 INTERNET EDITION, EVEN IF PaceAdvantage.Com HAD BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE READ THIS DISCLAIMER AND, BY DOWNLOADING THE PROGRAM, OR INSTALLING THE PROGRAM, YOU INDICATE YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF ITS TERMS AND CONDITIONS. YOU ALSO AGREE THAT, UNLESS SPECIFICALLY COVERED BY ANOTHER WRITTEN LICENSE AGREEMENT WITH PaceAdvantage.Com, THIS LICENSE IS THE COMPLETE AGREEMENT BETWEEN US AND THAT IT SUPERSEDES ANY INFORMATION YOU RECEIVED RELATING TO THE SUBJECT MATTER OF THIS AGREEMENT.

AS ALWAYS, PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

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