Code:
For some time, I have been working on developing a useful odds line as an additional output for my CompuTrak computer program.
So, from time to time, depending on constraints on my time, I will put odds lines in the “Selection” section of this Board, in advance of the races of course. Think of this as a “beta test.”
I usually handicap the Southern California tracks, so to start I will only address those.
Here’s what you need to know to interpret the data:
GENERAL:
1.- Only races where each horse has at least one previous paceline that was on the same surface as today’s race, and within one furlong of today’s distance are included.
(These restrictions are removable in CompuTrak proper, but experience has shown that these restrictions are important.)
2. – No races with 1st time starters, or foreign shippers are included.
3. – Since the data will be presented in advance of the races, obviously, scratches can’t be accounted for.
4. - Odds are calculated based on the win probability of each horse without consideration of take out.
DEFINITIONS:
First Line: Race Number and fundamental information about the race.
First Column: Program Number/Morning Line/ First few letters of horse’s name.
Second Column: Odds Line, (OL)
Third Column: The best predicted finish time, (BT) for today’s race from the set of all previous pacelines.
Fourth Column: The Paceline No., (BPL), i.e., number of races back, of the race which led to the best
predicted time.
Fifth Column: Recent Time, (RT), the predicted finish time based on the most recent race within the
the set of races meeting the distance and surface restrictions.
Sixth Column: Recent Paceline No. (RPL), i.e., the recent race paceline number for the Recent Time.
Seventh Column: Days to last race, (DTLR), the number of days since the horse raced last.
Eighth Column: The present form, or condition of the horse. The higher the number, the better.
HANDICAPPING SUGGESTIONS:
1.- Horses with lower odds have the higher win probability, but,
2.- You might consider the three, or so, low odds horses and check out the predicted finish times.
3 – Examine all of the predicted finish times and form numbers
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© 2004 Revelation Software, Santa Barbara CA. All Rights Reserved.
RACES:
RACE No. 1 Jan 28 2004 SA 6f/D C/62500/47000/89 3 year olds only. Fillies only.
PNo/ML/Name OL BT BPL RT RPL DTLR FORM
1/5.00/ STRIKI 8.04 72.2 1 72.2 1 90 250
2/6.00/ CAN'T 5.59 70.8 4 75.6 2 13 243
3/2.50/ INTUIT 3.86 70.2 3 71.0 1 42 14
4/12.00/ MARY S 4.19 72.0 1 72.0 1 74 29
5/2.00/ MISS S 4.63 69.9 7 75.1 1 28 30
6/3.00/ HIGHES 5.20 70.9 2 73.1 1 44 30
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RACE No. 4 Jan 28 2004 SA 6f/D C/20000/25000/84 3 year olds only. Fillies only.
PNo/ML/Name OL BT BPL RT RPL DTLR FORM
1/3.00/ SPEAK 5.31 73.8 1 73.8 1 262 31
2/6.00/ TALEGA 6.74 72.9 2 72.9 2 28 47
3/6.00/ CHALET 8.62 71.2 7 75.0 2 56 62
4/6.00/ DEE DE 9.65 72.6 2 72.6 2 14 69
5/5.00/ HOME T 5.75 72.7 1 72.7 1 49 131
6/6.00/ SAVED 7.98 71.4 2 73.2 1 20 11
7/12.00/ SIMPLY 6.56 73.0 1 73.0 1 95 22
8/4.00/ GRAND 7.16 72.1 5 73.1 1 20 17
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RACE No. 7 Jan 28 2004 SA 8f/T N/75000/96 4 year olds and up. Fillies & Mares only.
PNo/ML/Name OL BT BPL RT RPL DTLR FORM
1/15.00/ FUDGE 12.26 96.5 6 98.2 1 108 59
2/1.80/ POLYGR 10.96 97.1 3 99.1 2 30 42
3/10.00/ STAR V 7.91 97.7 2 98.3 1 108 36
4/6.00/ GO ON 8.30 97.4 9 98.0 3 32 44
5/20.00/ VOZ DE 5.95 97.8 5 98.3 1 39 161
6/8.00/ REEFS 7.24 96.8 2 96.8 2 30 46
7/6.00/ POTRA 6.61 98.4 1 98.4 1 19 44
8/4.50/ FUN HO 8.08 97.1 6 98.3 1 19 79
9/8.00/ MAJOR 7.73 97.5 7 99.3 1 235 66
