Boxing the Trifecta

[Ray2000]

This might be the Mother of all Red-Boarding but I found the results to be surprising.
Unlike the Exacta where the Straight wager always out-performs the box or wheels on top 4 picks,
......The Straight Trifecta does not, at least for my picks.

The table shows the results of betting the Robot's top 4 picks in various combinations.
Horse A is Top choice, then B-C-D... Races where any choice was scratched are not used.

The data covers 127,322 Races, .....All North American tracks from Jan 2009
The 2$ cost is $254,644 and is always the same
(i.e you buy 1/12th of a 24$ box4 tkt or a single straight $2 tkt)

				
Ticket		Return		ROI		Hits	Strike Rate
AB/AB/CD	$278,665 	1.094	 	 8,777 	6.9%
AB/AB/C	 	$277,019 	1.088	 	 4,795 	3.8%
A/B/CD	 	$275,117 	1.080	 	 4,969 	3.9%
AB/ABC/CD	$270,636 	1.063	 	11,489  9.0%
A/BC/BCD	$269,553 	1.059	 	 8,861 	7.0%
A/BC/BC	 	$268,280 	1.054	 	 4,966 	3.9%
ABC_3Box	$267,452 	1.050	 	11,447  9.0%
A/B/C	 	$267,022 	1.049	 	 2,721 	2.1%
A/BCD/BCD	$261,405 	1.027	 	11,901  9.3%
BCD/A/BCD	$258,298 	1.014	 	 8,148 	6.4%
ABCD_4Box	$252,244 	0.991	 	31,273 24.6%
AB/ABC/BCD	$236,683 	0.929	 	13,735 10.8%

Given the higher return and 3x the Strike Rate, AB/AB/CD is the much better bet.

I checked the ranking by eliminating all hits > $1000 and reached the same conclusion.
You need an enormous number of races when dealing with Tris



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[precisionk]

This is an interesting read. Unless I am a FIRM believer in a horse, I will most likely box my trifectas. This is especially true when I am at Running Aces live. I will torpedo odds of my top horse like no other and look for value in my trifecta's on 2nd and 3rd choice.

[DRIVEWAY]

A very interesting analysis. Surprisingly my trifecta standard is not referenced.

Just curious how AB/ABC/ABCD worked out.

Thanks again for your analysis.

[Ray2000]

Mr T, DRIVEWAY
Thx for the replies.
When I did the AB/ABC/ABCD I noticed I had made a mistake on one of the other combos.
AB/ABC/BCD is 7 tickets not 8, that guy got shorted on the return

Here is the update.

				
Ticket		Return		ROI		Hits	Strike Rate
AB/AB/CD	$278,665 	1.094	 	 8,777 	6.9%
AB/AB/C	 	$277,019 	1.088	 	 4,795 	3.8%
A/B/CD	 	$275,117 	1.080	 	 4,969 	3.9%
AB/ABC/CD	$270,636 	1.063	 	11,489  9.0%
AB/ABC/BCD	$270,495 	1.062	 	13,735 10.8%.....corrected
A/BC/BCD	$269,553 	1.059	 	 8,861 	7.0%
AB/ABC/ABCD	$269,280 	1.057	 	15,357 12.1%.....new
A/BC/BC	 	$268,280 	1.054	 	 4,966 	3.9%
ABC_3Box	$267,452 	1.050	 	11,447  9.0%
A/B/C	 	$267,022 	1.049	 	 2,721 	2.1%
A/BCD/BCD	$261,405 	1.027	 	11,901  9.3%
BCD/A/BCD	$258,298 	1.014	 	 8,148 	6.4%
ABCD_4Box	$252,244 	0.991	 	31,273 24.6%

[CHeCK EyE]

As always Ray. Personally I like the A/BC/BCD and I was pleased to see it closer to the middle than the bottom of the list!

[imofe]

Ray

Any chance you could post the exacta chart?

[mrroyboy]

Ray do you have any stats on horses bet down below their morning line odds. Just curious if they pay more or less?

[Ray2000]

imofe

Using the same races and same picks for Exacta betting gives the following table of results.

Ticket		Return		ROI		Hits	Strike rate
A/B	 	$259,778 	1.020	 	10,287 	8.1%
A/BC	 	$258,522 	1.015	 	18,182 	14.3%
AB/AB	 	$258,390 	1.015	 	18,244 	14.3%
AB/ABC	 	$254,765 	1.000	 	31,374 	24.6%
A/BCD	 	$252,437 	0.991	 	24,268 	19.1%
Box3	 	$246,256 	0.967	 	41,026 	32.2%
BCD/A		$231,230 	0.908	 	16,735 	13.1%
Box4	 	$230,298 	0.904	 	62,920 	49.4%

When I starting looking at these races, I went with Box 3 and Box4 then limited the queries to Pick1 (A) finishing no worse than 2nd. If you have some other combo Exacta ticket you would like to see, involving top 4 picks, let me know.

mrroyboy

Unfortunately no, that would take some detailed mining of the charts, not just the results and I haven't done that, might not even be possible with the charts I have.

I was thinking of using randomly generated pick numbers as a comparison but even that gets complicated trying to stay away from A/A/A tickets and other scratch/fieldsize problems.



and oh yea, for "Mr. Pic3" out there (mel, I know you're reading this ), the number of bet opportunities and scratch handling makes this a BEAR to try and compare..




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[RaceTrackDaddy]

That is the way I play my superfecta wagers...AB/AB/CD/CD. I never thought of reducing it for Trifecta wagering..be the same cost. I would have two horses on top of the ticket instead of my single pick on top: A/B,C,D/B.C,D,E.

Think I will try going with the AB/AB/CD method,,,if it works out for me in the Supers, it should have better results in the tris.

thanks for posting this thread Ray..
rtd

[imofe]

Are these for all field sizes or do you limit it to full fields?

[Ray2000]

imofe

The computer rejects races with more than 10 or less than 7 program listed starters. I tossed out any race with a scratch on any of the top 4 picks but scratches on the others in the race could make for some 6 horse fields.

BTW
There is one metric which is fascinating. For each race, the computer sums the Morning Line Rank of its Pick1 & Pick2.
(If Pic1 is 4th in ML and Pick2 is 2nd that = MLR12=6)

If you sort all 127000+ races on those added Ranks and bet $2 on each race in sequence you get a profit balance shown in the graph. There is clearly a break point at bet no. 65000. That is MLR12 of 5. All races to the right of that point have MLR12 > 5.

As much as I complain about the incompetence of the Morning lines it has the biggest effect. I think that's because a lot of trifecta players are newbies and tend to rely on ML picks. If the computer agrees with the morning line, it's an underlay.

[imofe]

This is very interesting Ray. Would you then say that it is better to play at tracks where the ML is not that accurate?

For example, if your top four ranks are usually pretty close to the ML at Track A, the public can hurt your results.

If at Track B your top four ranks are somewhat different than the ML, your chances at profit are increased because the public will be on other horses.
This is assuming that you pick a close % between Tracks A and B.

[Ray2000]

I'll have to think about that one , in general it makes sense but my "bad" tracks are Chester, Freehold, Pokie, Woodbine and Windsor. Chester has the worst ML (IMO). And the computer's best tracks are Georgia, Balmoral, Dover, Harrington, Hazel and Tioga. And the ML guy at Tioga is pretty sharp.

Hard to figure...


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[marksinger]

I like AC/ AD/ BC/ BD .
Anyone ever tried these?

[Ray2000]

mark

Do you mean Exactas AB/CD ?