Bel Sunday - race by race

[PhantomOnTour]

Got the place to myself all day long (oh, the glory!) so i will be yapping about the races at Bel today.
Hopefully i can find some winners in my top six choices
(just kidding y'all - don't get sensitive)

Race 1:
hate to chalk out but i don't see any surprises here. Relying on an aggressive jock in Castro on #1 to keep the speedy #8 honest.
#9 Carson Hall should get a very nice outside stalking trip and can get it done. Problem is that he usually settles for minor placings. Been off a few months after chasing a fast pace at Aqu...JJ back up today and he'll give him every chance.
#5 and #6 both had excellent 2011 seasons and like to win way more than Carson Hall. All of these can really bring it in the lane when right.
Think the speed does not hold on here and Carson Hall should hit the lead at some point in the stretch...gotta hold off the 5 and 6.
Will play #9 under the 5-6 and over the 5-6-7 with a win bet, although anything lower than his current 5-2 odds may be unacceptable, esp for a win bet.

Good luck

[KidCapper]

Good luck today Phantom

[Solid_Gold]

GL Phantom, hope you cash

[PhantomOnTour]

Couldn't pull the trigger at 9-5...only bet was a DD using the 6-9 with the 6-7 in R2....

Race 2:
#6 is the fastest at every call by my numbers and that may be that, even with the class hike. Gonna get bet and the value may lie in the #7 who will get a legit pace to chase today...8-1 ML

[Solid_Gold]

PS cows don't sit down, they lay down! lol

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Solid_Gold

PS cows don't sit down, they lay down! lol

Gotta use the quote as is
Heard it this morning while watching the Tour de France...it was either Paul Sherwen or Phil Ligget

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Race 2:
#6 is the fastest at every call by my numbers and that may be that, even with the class hike. Gonna get bet and the value may lie in the #7 who will get a legit pace to chase today...8-1 ML

boy did that race fall apart late...
---------------

EDIT - Yea.. I'd be cautious betting the top placings back from that race against better... is about a 20K claimer that Miceli protected after the claim!

[PhantomOnTour]

#7 had every chance but hung...he was the one i bet on.
Didn't have that 2 anywhere

[PhantomOnTour]

For me it's basically 6-7-8-9 here.
The 6 and 7 are both Linda Rice turf cutbacks and she is good with that move...i will use them.
The 8 is Dutrow off a big win and a freshening so whatcha gonna do?
The 9 looks like the easy frontrunner. Although his splits from his last look very fast, they actually came on a day when the turf was pretty quick. All four turf sprints that day went in under 1:09, and most were 21's and 44's...only one race was a wire job.

Where's the other value?
Gonna let Ramon beat me on the #2 if he's good enough...no thanks
The #3 takes a much needed class plunge for Albertrani...has faced some good ones in Agave Kiss and Considerate but has shown nothing lately...no thanks.
The #10 at 5-1? Meh....ran on a speed kind track last time (in an n3l condition)and came up short, but back to turf today and n2l company.
Hmmm...maybe.

[PhantomOnTour]

Going with the 6 as my top choice but i can't ignore Dutrow...

EX:
6-8 w 6-7-8-9-10
WIN:
6-7

[Robert Fischer]

postrace edit ^^^^ good call


-------------------------
i like 2-8-10 here
9 is my second-level contender

this race could be some longshots

i'm passing here although 2 is a fat price now..

[KidCapper]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Going with the 6 as my top choice but i can't ignore Dutrow...

EX:
6-8 w 6-7-8-9-10
WIN:
6-7

Good call on the 6

[Mr G]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Going with the 6 as my top choice but i can't ignore Dutrow...

EX:
6-8 w 6-7-8-9-10
WIN:
6-7

Way to go!

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Going with the 6 as my top choice but i can't ignore Dutrow...

EX:
6-8 w 6-7-8-9-10
WIN:
6-7

Nice call there! Wonder if Linda Rice is getting back in win mode for Toga

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay okay...got a lil score there (thx for kudos y'all)...

Chad Brown opens at 1-9 in R4 !?
I don't know, but this #5 is by English Channel out of a nice productive mare (who was a Stks winner) and sits at 25-1 going first out for Tagg. He's okay with FTS and the worktab is nice.
Value everywhere if you take the following mindset:
The heavy chalk defeated Karlovy Vary last year at Sar in her only race...nice try as she lost a win photo. Now off for 10 months....hmmm...is this a "get fit" race for another try at the Spa in a month or so????
Yeah yeah, Chad Brown doesn't have many "get fit" races...his are always fit, but i gotta find a chink in the armor at this price.