I thought about posting in the thread called "Poll: A real Turn Key Software, ??", but the thread had grown cold. And I was not so much interested in the thread, as in some of the thread drift.
[Oriiginal thread is
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=92823 ]
What I found interesting was Dave Schwartz's discussion about the dilemma of selling a handicapping program that promised $20K per month:
Quote:
Specifically, I asked the question (not verbatim; from memory) "If I developed a software program that I could prove to your satisfaction would produce $20,000 per month how much would you be willing to pay for it?"
I got several responses and a little discussion but the biggest number was $1,000. Understand, that wasn't $1,000 per month, but a one-time price of
$1,000.
It goes to show just how unrealistic horse players can be.
Now, I understand that someone might not believe that it is even remotely possible to beat the game on a consistent basis. I know that we have
many people here who believe that.
But... and this is a very large but... if it could be proven to your satisfaction, how much would you pay for $20k per month in profit? (Rhetorical question. I do not sell things that way.) What ever the fair answer is (to both buyer and seller) I think it is safe to assume that the "fair price" is a lot more than $1,000.
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$!000?? Incredible. In my opinion, PA was a lot closer at $360,000, or figure a return on equity of 1.5.
One has to assume that no one who responded or "bid" read this closely ... Dave specified that the success of the program would have to be "proven to your satisfaction," i.e., the buyer's satisfaction. Perhaps they had no faith that they could ever be satisfied. Or maybe they have no concept of value.
Dave goes on (Post #47) to lay out how an arrangement between the buyer (presumably, some group of players, let's call them the "syndicate") and the seller (the programmer) would work. But then he makes the point that this is really a theoretical discussion.
Quote:
Just for the record, and to be perfectly clear: I am not in the market
for any deals such as this. I truly only posted this a an example of how it
could be done.
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Dave answers the obvious question about why sell the eggs when you can keep the golden goose for yourself: Lifestyle. He'd rather advise the syndicate(s) then do the drudge work that is required even with this hypothtical "near-black-box" system. And the "syndicate" is not a single player, but you need employees or partners:
Quote:
...too many races where at zero minutes to post the
horses are still 5 minutes away, or the entry scratches, or the race is off the
turf, or the track is now off. The point is that it takes a
bet-making TEAM to make it happen. This demands employees.
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Now my point (yeah, finally): If you had someone offer you a "near-black-box" to beat the stock market, what would you think? You'd probably think that you'd be a fool to spend much money on it. "The Street" is populated by Harvard/Wharton MBA sharks that are a hell of a lot smarter than we, the assembled masses at PaceAdvantage (with a few notable exceptions, I am sure).
Yet I'm willing to believe Dave could do this. As for employees/partners, two would do. Of course, to maintain our lifestyle, we'd need $60K (3x$20K) per month in profits.
Given the premise that Dave sets forth, what would it take to "prove to your satisfaction" the efficacy of such a program?
Dave, you listening?
-- Grifter
