Race shapes - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

andicap · 12-16-2003, 01:39 PM

How many of you use these in your handicapping? By that I mean, designating past races as either "Slow," "average" or "fast" paced" and relating them to final times so that an "E" horse would look better next race if coming out an "F-A" designated race to one where it appears there is less pace.
Conversely an "S" horse coming from an "S-A" race might be upgraded if the pace looks stronger but the horses have about the same final times.

This is what Quirin talked about/ I've never really incorporated it, but I'm looking at doing so now if it's not a waste of time.

cj · 12-16-2003, 02:30 PM

I think using race shapes is very enlightening, and can lead you to many hits, especially closers on the bottom side of exactas. It is important to know something about the winner of the race in question. For example, a race goes in say 65-80, or slow-average, I would look at the closer who was disadvantaged but still made up some ground while wide. But, if I know a horse who was right next to him on the backstretch was able to power by and win the race, I'd be more skeptical. Hope these ramblings make sense!

alysheba88 · 12-16-2003, 03:38 PM

Thats why charts are so important. It is imperative that you know how other horses in the race were compromised (or not) from the pace.

If the speed horses went 1-2-3 around the clock the horse who looked like he fought on despite fast fractions doesnt look so great if you see all the speed held. Same deal on closers. If the top three finishers closed you would certainly want to know that.

Like seeing races where one horses closed into slow fractions and no one else did. These horses performance often look deceptively bad when in reality it may have been a strong effort

so.cal.fan · 12-16-2003, 03:56 PM

Good point, Alysheba......I must admit, I have been lax in reading my charts........thanks for the wakeup call!

Tom · 12-16-2003, 08:19 PM

I like to use the race shape to evaulate a performance. One I really look for is a horse who ran something like

3-2 1-1 1-hd 4-5

Now, if the race was Slow-Fast, this guy made up ground early, against horses who were lazy and then faded agains a fast pace. His own F3 might be average or fast, but looks like he tired. In fact, he might be the best "closer" today.

andicap · 12-17-2003, 03:45 AM

Tom,

Are you using the race-shapes from HTR? I've never been able to make them work very well a la Quinn. But I might have misapplied them. If I could eliminate just one contender using this method it would prove invaluable to me.

Have you?

CJ, thanks, it made perfect sense!

Alysheba, the late Ron Cox gave a seminar at the Handicapping Expo in the early 90s on that very subject -- reading the charts. One of the few tapes from that Expo that I listened to several times.

GR1@HTR · 12-17-2003, 08:33 PM

When I ran some stuff on this in access, Closers had the best ROI in slow pace shape races (cause no pace cappers bet closers in a projected paceless race) and Fr1 horses had a really good roi in fast race shape races.

cj · 12-17-2003, 10:27 PM

I tried in the past to try to predict the pace of today's race, and it is a waste of time for me. I'd rather bet the overall abilities of the horses and let the race play itself out. Like GR1 says, going against the conventional wisdom produces nice prices.

As far as the shape thing goes, I much prefer to base ability of the animal looking at the race shapes of past races. I know what the shape was. I have no idea what the shape will be today.

alysheba88 · 12-17-2003, 11:03 PM

I think too much attention is paid to raw or even adjusted times and drawing too many conclusions about the pace of the race. Its not necessarily the fractions but the amount of pressure. The horse who engages in a three way battle for the lead in 46.1 may collapse, but the same horse, if loose in 45.2 may be uncatchable. Fractions dont tell the whole story.

so.cal.fan · 12-17-2003, 11:04 PM

Grade1.....that is really interesting!
Indicates handicappers are over betting favorable running styles?

BillW · 12-17-2003, 11:21 PM

In a race where the pace is projected to be hot, people often seem to assume that every E type is going to be cooked. All E types are not equal ... hence some nice prices (or at least nicer than can otherwise be expected).

Bill

Tom · 12-17-2003, 11:21 PM

I use the race shapes I get from my figs and pars. I use it more to identify key races/horses.
The HTR numbers are more performance based and the shapes do not work for me as well. The best way to use the HTR race shapes, for me, is to look the pace of race shape and then re-assing it based on today's par, not the last race par. But I am still more comfortable using my own figs for this. HTR has other ratings that are much better than the Pac numbers and race pars.
I prefer to use the Pac numbers in conjunction with teh Fig2 numbers and just compare them horse to horse and forget pars and shapes altogether.

Fastracehorse · 12-18-2003, 02:17 AM

I don't normally designate certain races as fast/slow.

I call race-shape: Where the horse will be sitting and if this position will be favorable.

I believe my adjusted speed fig tells me what a horse ran. It helps when the horse is under-rated.

fffastt

alysheba88 · 12-18-2003, 08:15 AM

The one thing that I changed in 2003 (after witnessing it happen seemingly hundreds of times) was automatically concluding that when there was a bunch of early speed in the race that a speed duel was inevitable. So many times thats not the case. The speed of the speed gets out and goes wire to wire. The other jockeys take back fearing a duel. Something to watch for

Zaf · 12-18-2003, 08:23 PM

What are the best ways to predict, Who will be the speed of the speed ?

ZAFONIC