Aqu so far

[misscashalot]

out of 9 races so far at Aqu
at 2 turns
4 won by fav and
4 won by second bet choice

[Tom]

There have only been 9 route races so far????
Since when?

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by Tom

There have only been 9 route races so far????
Since when?

Since jan 1st

9 races at 2 turns

[Tom]

OK....thought you meant since the inner opened.
My bad.

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by Tom

OK....thought you meant since the inner opened.
My bad.

which brings up an important point for me.
I bet only NYRA, there are 7 distinct meets,
each require different approaches because of
surface changes, age conditions, and other factors.
The meets are
Jan AQU Inner
Apr Aqu Main Dirt and Turf
Bel Spring
Saratoga
Bel Fall Dirt and Turf
Aqu Oct Main Dirt and Turf
Aqu Dec Inner dirt.
For me, what works in May for instance
usually doesn't work at other times.
Also I don't use Sprint/Routes
I use 1 turn/2Turn
So a 1-1/16 on the Bel dirt is 1 turn,
But 1 mile on the Inner at Aqu is 2 Turn.

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

out of 9 races so far at Aqu
at 2 turns
4 won by fav and
4 won by second bet choice

as of Jan 6th
out of 14 races

6 won by favs and
7 won by second bet choice

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

as of Jan 6th
out of 14 races

6 won by favs and
7 won by second bet choice

good stuff.

[vikingrob]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

which brings up an important point for me.
I bet only NYRA, there are 7 distinct meets,
each require different approaches because of
surface changes, age conditions, and other factors.
The meets are
Jan AQU Inner
Apr Aqu Main Dirt and Turf
Bel Spring
Saratoga
Bel Fall Dirt and Turf
Aqu Oct Main Dirt and Turf
Aqu Dec Inner dirt.
For me, what works in May for instance
usually doesn't work at other times.
Also I don't use Sprint/Routes
I use 1 turn/2Turn
So a 1-1/16 on the Bel dirt is 1 turn,
But 1 mile on the Inner at Aqu is 2 Turn.

I can definitely imagine but I don't see why December inner at Aqueduct would be markedly different (at least in a normal winter) to January through March of the following calendar year. However, with the events of recent winters (the demise of NYCOTB and the introduction of the casino money this winter) some winters will naturally be split. NYRA year round is complex enough given that you have a total of nine courses to consider (three at each track), of which three are configurations you don't see elsewhere in America (the three Belmont courses) and the number of races that are run there where the first yards of the race are not parallel to the homestretch (1 mile and 1 1/16 on the Widener turf and 1 1/16 on the inner).

However, you will need a good understanding of racing at Parx, Delaware, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream, and Tampa Bay, too.

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by vikingrob

I can definitely imagine but I don't see why December inner at Aqueduct would be markedly different (at least in a normal winter) to January through March of the following calendar year. .....

Some important and some subtle reasons that have a great effect on actual and bettor perceived factors that change the betting patterns and payouts. In the late 2010 meet on the inner there was an average of 7.03 runners per race, in Jan-March 2011 meet there were 7.72 runners per race. Jocks and trainers have a mass exodus that completes by new years. Average odds of winning horses in the Dec 2010 meet was $4.77/1, in the Jan-March 2011 meet was $3.42. These are just 3 factors that change the betting dynamics. These may not effect cappers who use different betting elements to chose from in order to make their selections, but they sure have an important weight on my choices.

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

as of Jan 6th
out of 14 races

6 won by favs and
7 won by second bet choice

As of Jan 7th
out of 18 races

8 favs
8 second choices

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

As of Jan 7th
out of 18 races

8 favs
8 second choices

As of Jan 8th
20 races at 2 turns

10 winning favs
8 winning second choices

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

As of Jan 8th
20 races at 2 turns

10 winning favs
8 winning second choices

For this to have any significance, I think one has to examine the condition book. The Racing Secretary can influence the price of winners based on how the races are written.

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

For this to have any significance, I think one has to examine the condition book. The Racing Secretary can influence the price of winners based on how the races are written.

Interesting
Can you please explain further?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

Interesting
Can you please explain further?

The Racing Secretary has to match races to the horses stalled/available. He probably has an idea as to the likely favorite when he writes a race. If you know the condition book and the available horses, you can probably give an educated estimate of which weeks of the season might be more likely to see winning favorites.

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

The Racing Secretary has to match races to the horses stalled/available. He probably has an idea as to the likely favorite when he writes a race. If you know the condition book and the available horses, you can probably give an educated estimate of which weeks of the season might be more likely to see winning favorites.

If only it were able to be quantified then perhaps losing streaks would be a thing of the past