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05-07-2011, 04:57 AM
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#1
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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My Kentucky Derby Analysis (Shameless Self Promotion)
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05-07-2011, 11:11 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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I have the same first three horses as you - although, I like Soldat, Arch and then Master.
After those, I have no strong opinion.
Good Luck!
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05-07-2011, 11:33 AM
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#3
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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A few observations regarding your analysis.
What about the racetrack surface at the rail? I've only seen a couple of races so I'm not sure, but the races I did see, most of em' got off the rail and went a few wide - rail was dead.
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You wrote Archarcharch has "stay out of trouble" early speed and you also wrote that this Derby will be "a very contentious event when it comes to the early pace." You've got Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Shakelford, Pants on Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Soldat and Stay Thirsty contenting for the early lead and likely out in front of Archarcharch. When he gets to the first turn where "out of trouble" will Archarcharch be with respect to your early speed analysis? With your early speed analysis, he will be running at least eighth and that may be the best case scenario. If Archarcharch changes his running style, goes early and does get "out of trouble" in front of this early speed, will he use the precious energy needed for his "keep the cavalry at bay late punch?"
You believe the horse winning this one will be coming off the pace. You wrote "I really don't want anything to do with horses that are going to be contesting things early. You also wrote, "I really wanted to make Soldat my top choice, but I just couldn't, based on the fact that it appears to me that he's not quite fast enough to get near the front where he does his best running." If you believe the horse winning this race will be a sustained runner how can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your "top choice"? How can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your second choice? How can you make an E/P runner like Shakelford your third pick?
If I understand your analysis correctly, Archarcharch a presser, will have to use some speed to get out of trouble early and likely be mid pack. He will then fall back and come from behind and run down two speed horses that "you really don't want anything to do with."
I don't get it. Am I reading this correctly?
AS far as Master of Hounds, I have concluded that if he is as good as his pedigree indicates, he would have proved it.
Best or racing luck.
 
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05-07-2011, 11:40 AM
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#4
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,918
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Okay, I'll play. Not sure how dependable NewPace will be in a race like this but...
Order of preference (not betting order)
15-8-7-13-1
I will bet highest odds down to lowest odds, until I am getting below 3/2 in a dutch. Then I will stop. (I will actually bet them all flat.)
Dave Schwartz
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05-07-2011, 11:50 AM
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#5
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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A few observations regarding your observations Blenheim.
Soldat would have been my top choice if he had shown the ability to run well from off the pace. He is NOT my top choice, so I'm not sure why you're writing "how can you make an E/P like Soldat your top choice..."
I can easily make him my second choice, or Shackleford my third choice. In my analysis, I'm talking mostly about whom I think the winner will be. We all know the second and third place finishers often do NOT fit the WINNING profile, and often times, are the complete OPPOSITE of the winning profile.
As for Archarcharch, I think I spelled it out pretty clearly. I don't want any horse for the top spot who will be contesting the early pace. It's pretty clear Archarcharch will not be contesting the early pace. However, this is a 20 horse field, and Archarcharch has shown many times in the past the ability to sit in the upper third of the field early on. To me, this is "stay out of trouble" speed in a 19 horse field such as the Derby. He's not a deep closer who is going to have to navigate around 14 runners in front of him. Again, to me this is "stay out of trouble" speed.
As for the start, I don't think he will have to "use" any early speed to stay out of trouble. He has no speed towards his immediate right, although in my analysis I was mistaken when I said the three horses to his right. I don't think he can outbreak Stay Thirsty, so he should be able to outbreak the two horses to his immediate right, while the next four horses outbreak him, leaving him with what I believe will be enough room to maneuver into a comfortable position, eventually settling in seventh or eighth place early on, which in my opinion would be a perfect spot for this horse.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-07-2011 at 12:28 PM.
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05-07-2011, 11:51 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Blenheim
A few observations regarding your analysis.
What about the racetrack surface at the rail? I've only seen a couple of races so I'm not sure, but the races I did see, most of em' got off the rail and went a few wide - rail was dead.
~
You wrote Archarcharch has "stay out of trouble" early speed and you also wrote that this Derby will be "a very contentious event when it comes to the early pace." You've got Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Shakelford, Pants on Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Soldat and Stay Thirsty contenting for the early lead and likely out in front of Archarcharch. When he gets to the first turn where "out of trouble" will Archarcharch be with respect to your early speed analysis? With your early speed analysis, he will be running at least eighth and that may be the best case scenario. If Archarcharch changes his running style, goes early and does get "out of trouble" in front of this early speed, will he use the precious energy needed for his "keep the cavalry at bay late punch?"
You believe the horse winning this one will be coming off the pace. You wrote "I really don't want anything to do with horses that are going to be contesting things early. You also wrote, "I really wanted to make Soldat my top choice, but I just couldn't, based on the fact that it appears to me that he's not quite fast enough to get near the front where he does his best running." If you believe the horse winning this race will be a sustained runner how can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your "top choice"? How can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your second choice? How can you make an E/P runner like Shakelford your third pick?
If I understand your analysis correctly, Archarcharch a presser, will have to use some speed to get out of trouble early and likely be mid pack. He will then fall back and come from behind and run down two speed horses that "you really don't want anything to do with."
I don't get it. Am I reading this correctly?
AS far as Master of Hounds, I have concluded that if he is as good as his pedigree indicates, he would have proved it.
Best or racing luck.
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Why not just post your own analysis?
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05-07-2011, 01:18 PM
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#7
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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This is how I see it. Best horse, best jockey, and best trainer are all together and throw in the best name for good measure. The winner is  Master Of The Hounds.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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05-07-2011, 01:32 PM
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#8
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dGnr8
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Niagara, Ontario
Posts: 3,023
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We're out for dinner so I probably won't even get to watch live 
So I bet early. Hope it doesn't rain much.
Code:
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $10.00 WIN 1,11,13 $30.00 86667512078577 Cancel
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $1.00 EXB 1,11,13 $6.00 36776931942556 Cancel
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $1.00 EXB 1,7,8,11,13,19 $30.00 37324703623524 Cancel
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $1.00 EXA 1,11,13 / 1,7,8,11,13-17,19 $27.00 17956677886231 Cancel
__________________
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The great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge - Daniel J. Boorstin
The takers get the honey, the givers sing the blues - Robin Trower, Too Rolling Stoned - 1974
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05-07-2011, 02:16 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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Not shameless self promotion, pretty good analysis. I have a few additional opinions, but that's horse racing....Good Luck today!
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05-07-2011, 02:33 PM
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#10
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,818
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My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.
As she left the room she was singing
"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"
do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ 
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05-07-2011, 03:31 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Just so it doesn't get lost:
Midnight Interlude
Dialed In
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man
Will add Master of Hounds, Soldat, Brilliant Speed, underneath in the exotics.
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05-07-2011, 03:47 PM
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#12
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Canadian since 51
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JustRalph
My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.
As she left the room she was singing
"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"
do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ |
Is that the ONLY Gay horse in the KD, Ralphie ? Hmmmm ?  
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05-07-2011, 04:15 PM
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#13
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,818
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rookies
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we won't know for a couple of seasons.......
But just for luck I went into the garage and broke out some old police equipment and a hard hat to wear during the race. I am ripping the sleeves out of my t-shirt as I type this...........
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05-07-2011, 04:19 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Tucson, AZ
Posts: 143
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LOL!
You "guys" are too much!
bcgreg
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05-07-2011, 04:35 PM
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#15
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JustRalph
My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.
As she left the room she was singing
"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"
do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ |
If he loses, will you be sleeping at the YMCA tonight?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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