The Factor? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

UK View · 01-24-2011, 06:18 AM

Just been looking at the Kentucky Derby betting over here in the UK.

Seems to me The Factor looks a doubtful stayer?

Any thoughts?

Thanks

Pell Mell · 01-24-2011, 06:55 AM

I handicap for the classics almost completely by pedigree and have been very successful over the years.

I see no distance problems with The Factor. There are some that I like better but one always must consider performance in relation to breeding.

I think this will be a difficult year to sort out because I see numerous horses with outstanding breeding. They will have to sort themselves out on the track.

joanied · 01-24-2011, 12:34 PM

I also play the pedigree angle...I don't think his pedigree screams distance, but he could get it done if he can relax, going wire to wire might not be the best thing for him to do and get a distance...he sure is a gorgeous, well balanced colt...and he's got the right trainer.

toussaud · 01-24-2011, 06:34 PM

This is a sprinter.

His dam was a sprinter. His half brother (Gone grand) is a sprinter. His sire is a sprinter. His damsire is a sprinter.

Some people will look at soldat and say war front can get you a 2 turn horse but his female dam line comes from a family of two turn turf horses.

The factor while talented.. if he beats me going 10F then I am just going to tip my hat. Baffert is not a guy who I think can make a horse run farther than he wants to run either. JMHO

joanied · 01-24-2011, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toussaud

This is a sprinter.

His dam was a sprinter. His half brother (Gone grand) is a sprinter. His sire is a sprinter. His damsire is a sprinter.

Some people will look at soldat and say war front can get you a 2 turn horse but his female dam line comes from a family of two turn turf horses.

The factor while talented.. if he beats me going 10F then I am just going to tip my hat. Baffert is not a guy who I think can make a horse run farther than he wants to run either. JMHO

I agree, toussaud, I was trying to be tactful in my post...we all know a sprinter bred horse can outrun his pedigree, but that is the exception, not the rule...The Factor does have the right trainer, one who knows full well where to place a horse

and IMO, he'll keep this colt sprinting.

He is a gorgeous individual, though...don't you think?

Market Mover · 01-24-2011, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toussaud

This is a sprinter.

His dam was a sprinter. His half brother (Gone grand) is a sprinter. His sire is a sprinter. His damsire is a sprinter.

Some people will look at soldat and say war front can get you a 2 turn horse but his female dam line comes from a family of two turn turf horses.

The factor while talented.. if he beats me going 10F then I am just going to tip my hat. Baffert is not a guy who I think can make a horse run farther than he wants to run either. JMHO

Exactly right. The Factor is a sprinter, and nothing more.

Remember that Baffert was first a quarter horse trainer. And he is very good at training his horses to run fast early for as far as they can.

He must have been in hog heaven when the new SA dirt track rolled out as a motorspeedway for speed horses.

The recent addition of dirt or whatever components they added to the track to try and slow it down for more realistic times probably saddened the Gray Haired wonder...He would have been just fine had they left it as is..

toussaud · 01-24-2011, 08:39 PM

He IMHO is a, probably more talented and hopefully more sound version of convyeance. Which is not a bad thing at all. I don't think conveyance was right after the sunland derby and that he was a shell of himself, who knows what could have happened had he progressed instead of regressed.

Truth be told, all of them seem like sprinters to me. There are a handful who I think might seriously want 10F. IMHO The factor is going to need a designated driver by the time they hit the turn for the stretch.

With that said, he could just be that good. Big Brown was bread to be a turf sprinter, and he won two jewels of the triple crown. I'm starting to view uncle mo like that.

The one thing that both uncle mo and The factor both have going for them, that To honor and serve (who I also think is a sprinter, and a slow one) doesn't is that both have demonstrated the ability to switch off. As fast as the factor is, he is not a need the lead type at all. He's just fast. Tapizar and THAS on the other hand, aren't going to win at that level coming off the pace. Maybe bob b can get him to switch off long enough to win a race like that.

joanied · 01-24-2011, 09:05 PM

Well said...both posts, MM & toussaud. I beleive baffert was mighty bummed at the turn of events concerning Conveyance...The Factor is a good replacement.
I don't believe either this colt or Tapizar are really Derby horses...I am going to keep an eye on To Honor & serve, I kinda like him...
I also don't think Baffert was thrilled with the way SA surface was playing, like a speedway...he may love fast, but he's smart enough to know if they'd kept the track as it was, horses would be breaking down left & right...to much a price to pay for track records!

Uncle Mo...well, I'm still trying to figure him out

UK View · 01-25-2011, 07:59 AM

Thanks guys.

To my eye, visually he looks a sprinter to me. The one I like at this stage is To Honor and Serve at around 20/1. I prefer him to 4/1 Uncle Mo?

Pell Mell · 01-25-2011, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toussaud

He IMHO is a, probably more talented and hopefully more sound version of convyeance. Which is not a bad thing at all. I don't think conveyance was right after the sunland derby and that he was a shell of himself, who knows what could have happened had he progressed instead of regressed.

Truth be told, all of them seem like sprinters to me. There are a handful who I think might seriously want 10F. IMHO The factor is going to need a designated driver by the time they hit the turn for the stretch.

With that said, he could just be that good. Big Brown was bread to be a turf sprinter, and he won two jewels of the triple crown. I'm starting to view uncle mo like that.

The one thing that both uncle mo and The factor both have going for them, that To honor and serve (who I also think is a sprinter, and a slow one) doesn't is that both have demonstrated the ability to switch off. As fast as the factor is, he is not a need the lead type at all. He's just fast. Tapizar and THAS on the other hand, aren't going to win at that level coming off the pace. Maybe bob b can get him to switch off long enough to win a race like that.

Agreed, and this is why I said he could probably get the distance. Not many of this crop actually bred for the classic distace and unless those that are show some really good form we may be looking for the best of the sprinters

I do disagree with you concerning Big Brown. I thought he was bred for the classics and backed him from day one. Throw out the fiasco at BEL and he's the best horse in many years,.JMO