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10-24-2010, 07:08 PM
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#1
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 48
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A scenario that may happen on BC day.
We know Sherriffs scratched Zenyatta @ churchill a year ago due to track condition..
If the track condition came up sloppy or muddy will Zenyatta be scratch or will sherriffs feel the pressure and cave in and run Zenyatta anyway?A scenario certainly may occur.
Last edited by TheGrandDesign; 10-24-2010 at 07:10 PM.
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10-24-2010, 07:09 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 707
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I'm guessing 80% scratch, if sloppy/sealed.
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10-24-2010, 07:12 PM
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#3
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 48
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Then does Sherriffs retire her or is tempted to run 1 more time.
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10-24-2010, 07:16 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 707
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Where? Assuming they want her back to the farm by March I don't see a compelling race that would make any difference between now and then.
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10-24-2010, 07:28 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 862
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A sloppy track would give them a convenient excuse in case she loses.
I say the only way Zenyatta scratches is if it's a vet or steward's scratch.
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10-24-2010, 10:24 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 886
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Secretariat Movie...Zenyatta appearance on 60 Minutes. Yeah too much good exposure for racing so I could see things leveling out with a sloppy track on a monsoon type day circa Monmouth 2007. Too many things coming along too perfect here for the Breeders Cup. Has to be a monkey wrench coming.
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10-24-2010, 10:59 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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The Cigar Mile would be very compelling, although they would never do it.
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10-25-2010, 12:14 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 306
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There is absolutely no way they scratch her just based on poor track conditions. Do you know how much attention she is gonna get leading up to this race? She probably helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so. The only way she scratches is if something is physically wrong with her...which hasn't happened to her yet...but you never know I guess.
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10-25-2010, 07:28 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,761
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zenyatta To Crush
There is absolutely no way they scratch her just based on poor track conditions. Do you know how much attention she is gonna get leading up to this race? She probably helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so. The only way she scratches is if something is physically wrong with her...which hasn't happened to her yet...but you never know I guess.
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Based on history CD could be expected to pull at least 70-75k people for Saturday. Thus, if Zenyatta "helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so" you're forcasting a crowd of at least 110-115k.
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10-25-2010, 10:17 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 836
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I expect 475k. Extra tickets (section 111) will be $1300/each, and there's room available on my couch for $2300/night.
PM for info. 
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10-25-2010, 10:41 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Saratoga, NY
Posts: 190
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My guess; Zen runs, as long as the track doesn't come up truly "sloppy".
She's proven that she can run over Poly and dirt. She's well-suited to an off-track given her size. If the track is genuinely "muddy" then by all measure she can handle it. If it goes truly "sloppy" - soup-like - then it wouldn't be a stretch for her to be scratched just to protect the "franchise".
I'd do it (scratch) if I thought that running could result in a breakdown.
Nowithstanding her 19-19, the ultimate deciding point should come down to protecting the runner. She's a $10M mare...why risk it?
But if the track is even marginally "resilient" then she runs. And, most likely, wins.
I'll be rooting for her to cap off the brilliant carreer - even though I'm an "East Coast Bias" fan.
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10-25-2010, 11:01 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Wyoming, near Yellowstone Park...born/raised in Brooklyn,NY
Posts: 7,557
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I don't think they's scratch is it comes up muddy/sloppy...but will if they seal the track...that was the reason Shirreff's gave when they scratched her last time at CD...the sealing...another trainer that won't run on a sealed track is Zito.
__________________
joanied
"All we have to do is decide what to do with the time that is given to us"
Gandalf the Grey
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10-25-2010, 11:20 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 582
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The forecast for Louisville is for about as pretty a fall day as you can get for both BC days. Highs in the 60's and mostly sunny.
Regardless, the track would pretty much have to be unsafe for her to scratch. It's her last start after all ... big difference from her previous trip to Churchill.
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10-25-2010, 11:37 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,054
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There is precedent here. John Shirreffs scratched After Market from his final career start in the 2007 BC Mile due to track condition.
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10-25-2010, 11:55 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 752
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by joanied
I don't think they's scratch is it comes up muddy/sloppy...but will if they seal the track...that was the reason Shirreff's gave when they scratched her last time at CD...the sealing...another trainer that won't run on a sealed track is Zito.
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Was that someone else who saddled Ice Box and Jackson Bend in this year's Ky Derby?
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