less is more? Foals down 14.2% this year

[The_Knight_Sky]

Decline in number of foals reported By Matt Hegarty
http://www.drf.com/news/decline-number-foals-reported

LEXINGTON, Ky. – The Jockey Club has received live foal reports from North American breeders of 27,233 foals so far this year, a 14.2 percent decline compared with the number of live foal reports received by this time last year, the organization said on Thursday.

Foal crops in North America have been contracting since a bubble in the bloodstock market burst at the onset of the recession in 2008. That year, the foal crop was 36,600, down 2 percent from 2007. In 2009, the foal crop was 34,000, down 7.1 percent. The Jockey Club has already estimated that the 2011 crop will be 27,000 foals, a further decline of 10 percent.

[classhandicapper]

I was sort of surprised it took so long for this to happen. Such a huge percentage of owners take a bath on their investments and the overall economics are so poor, I would have thought the prices of horses would have collapsed much sooner and that in turn would have made breeding them less attractive.

Somewhere there is a balancing point for the industry, but I think that involves massive closings of marginal tracks so all the handle can be focused on the handful of remaining ones. Then they will become very profitable, raise purses, make ownership and breeding more attractive etc...

[DJofSD]

Class, no disrespect, but just because marginal tracks close does not mean the racing stock will show up at the remaining tracks.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

Class, no disrespect, but just because marginal tracks close does not mean the racing stock will show up at the remaining tracks.

No disrespect taken. I'm not always right I just like to think I am.

IMO they will show up if the handle at the remaining tracks explodes upward and the purses can be raised significantly as a result.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

No disrespect taken. I'm not always right I just like to think I am.

IMO they will show up if the handle at the remaining tracks explodes upward and the purses can be raised significantly as a result.

Actually, they will show up if they are competitive at the remaining tracks.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Somewhere there is a balancing point for the industry, but I think that involves massive closings of marginal tracks so all the handle can be focused on the handful of remaining ones.

Then they will become very profitable, raise purses, make ownership and breeding more attractive etc...

Well it looks like it will take California at least 10 years to get back to where they were:

Number of foals in California drops nearly 50 percent in five years - By Steve Andersen
http://www.drf.com/news/number-foals...ent-five-years


The number of live Thoroughbred foals produced in California has dropped by nearly 50 percent in the last five years, according to statistics released earlier this month by the Jockey Club.

According to a statement released on Sept. 16, with data compiled through Sept. 8, a total of 1,891 live foals have been registered in California this year, a decline of 25 percent from the 2,528 live foals registered from the 2009 foal crop.

This is not just a problem for California. Other states, including industry leader Kentucky, suffered declines from 2009 to 2010. Florida breeders, for example, registered 2,097 foals through Sept. 8, a drop of 27.5 percent from 2009, according to Jockey Club statistics.

[joanied]

Maybe this will be a good thing...I agree with those that mentioned closing 'marginal' tracks...if that could be done with higher purses, handle ect. going to the remaining tracks, IMO, that'd be a very good thing...they might have to write more claiming & lower allowance races at the remaining tracks, but I do beleive that most horses could compete, and those that can't, well, they probably shouldn't be race horses anyway.
The figures for the CA. foal crop are stunning...the future out there doesn't look bright at all.
With this short foal crop, I would assume that the foals that were born, will be of the better quality, as I would also assume the breeders that are not going to be represented by any foals in a couple of years on the track, are the ones that are not breeding the best blood or the soundest horses anyway. Time will tell.