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07-18-2010, 01:42 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Speaking of morning line oddsmakers...
Today's (7/18) Race #5 Monmouth:
#8 Glazed Wings is installed as the 5-2 early line choice. By what rational method of handicapping is this possible??
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07-18-2010, 01:53 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Agreed.....
Apart from having a trainer who is sharp off the claim, and a 28% rider at the meet, there is little to recommend this one off the layoff.
I figure he should be twice those odds......
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07-18-2010, 02:09 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,399
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A morning line is what the oddsmaker believes is how the betting public will go at that particular track. In a sense the oddsmaker is actually handicapping the betting public. Each track's oddsmaker has his reasons and beliefs of what his track's players will do. This would included popular trainers, jockey, etc and is all part of making the line.
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07-18-2010, 02:20 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,399
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From the Arlington Park website:
"Keep in mind that the morning line odds do not reflect the odds maker's selections, they are merely a prediction of how the betting public will wager on the race. Although I do my best to calculate accurate early odds, some races are tougher to assign odds values on than others."
http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222
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07-18-2010, 02:25 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Understood. But the public also handicaps a wee bit. This particular horse has never won past 5.5 f, tries a route for the first time when 6f seems to be too long. Doubles in claiming price, is off 58 days with one walking workout. Is rated next to last on the Brisnet Prime Power algorithm, etc.
So the track handicapper thinks this horse will be the favorite. Okay. Fine. WHY?
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07-18-2010, 02:26 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,399
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Why don't you email him and ask him
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07-18-2010, 03:07 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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I did. He said he knew the horse would get beaten by 20 lengths as he did, but he thought he might get some value betting against him.
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07-18-2010, 03:19 PM
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#8
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by markgoldie
I did. He said he knew the horse would get beaten by 20 lengths as he did, but he thought he might get some value betting against him.
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Are you seriously saying the morning line maker admitted he made a line to try to create better value for himself? I find that hard to believe, but if true that is a pretty serious knock on his integrity.
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07-18-2010, 03:27 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Since no ML oddsmaker would ever say such a thing, I thought this was pretty obvious as a joke. But apparently not. Okay. IT WAS A JOKE. 
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07-18-2010, 05:14 PM
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#10
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Obviously, manipulating the morning line for the linemaker's own benefit would be unethical. But don't linemakers skew the line all the time for the track's benefit by placing artificial lower and upper limits on ML odds in order to promote betting action on all the interests in the race (even if they're supposedly predicting how the public will bet, rather than giving their own opinion of each horse's chances)?
Last edited by Overlay; 07-18-2010 at 05:23 PM.
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07-18-2010, 06:02 PM
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#11
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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He did go off at 7/2. As they say in the poker world "dead money".
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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07-18-2010, 06:17 PM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 678
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by markgoldie
Today's (7/18) Race #5 Monmouth:
#8 Glazed Wings is installed as the 5-2 early line choice. By what rational method of handicapping is this possible??
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Mark, Brad Thomas is the track handicapper and morning line odds maker. He's as smart, sharp, and straight as they come.
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07-18-2010, 06:29 PM
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#13
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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good thread
I like an oddsmaker to handicap the PUBLIC, not the horse. 
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-18-2010, 06:37 PM
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#14
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by markgoldie
Since no ML oddsmaker would ever say such a thing, I thought this was pretty obvious as a joke. But apparently not. Okay. IT WAS A JOKE. |
I did think you were joking of course, but you never know.
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07-18-2010, 08:05 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
He did go off at 7/2. As they say in the poker world "dead money".
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Yeah, 7-2. Think this means the ML has more effect than we think??
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