TrainerStats

[Tom]

Ken Massa gave us a neat example of trainer handicapping at the HTR seminar this weekend:
You have a trainer who is 5 for 10 with FTS.
You bet the next 20 FTS this guys saddles. He goes 1 for 20.
Now you have a trainer who is 6 for 30 - 20% - with FTS and you just lost 19 out of 20 on him.
I once wrote program to extract the trainer data from the Formulator files - my criteria was to make a daily list of only trainers who were at least 30% winners and showed a profit in any catagory that matched todays-30% and a prifit in tidays conditions - it was folly - lost my shirt betting these guys. I quit after two days.

[Niko]

I subscribed to Ed Bain for a while and you can find the same thing there but he's up front about it and relies heavily on using filters to screen his plays. All his trainer stats are 30% or higher but they only hit about 22% if I remember and they were only hitting 18% while I played last year. A tough time to try and learn. Found something that started to work but at $100 a month during a cold streak I got off. Maybe someday I'll go back as some people seem to do Ok and he's been doing it for a while. I know how I'd play this time. He shows great discipline, has a knowledge for what some of the trainers are good at and when they do they their best and has been doing it a while.
That's why it's hard to copy someone else's style. They have an intimate knowledge of how and where it works for them which most other people can't duplicate without a decent learning curve.

[andicap]

I am trying to keep records of trainers winners every day at the Spa (I'm 10 days behind already due to recent surgery, illness in the family, etc. -- it's been one tough month for our household -- dont ask.)

But I believe trainers win in streaks and keeping records on the fly should help. When a trainer IS winning, those positive proclivities should come shining through. A trainer has an excellent long-term record with layoffs and he's going on a tear -- I bet his layoffs do real well.

Also, those trainer records on HDW are not that reliable because they give only 1 variable. For example, layoffs, 120 days or more (or whatever).
What about layoffs of 120 days or more with a c lass drop and a decent 05F workout within 7 days but only on the dirt. (I wouldn't use too many variables of course. And sometimes they differ in details. A trainer might win one day with a layoff/class drop, but only a 4f work, or some nondescript works, etc.)


Maybe that trainer who went 1-20 was in an overall slump and all his horses were losing, not only his layoffs. When the trainer straightened out I bet his layoffs began winning.

Like everything in horse racing you can't oversimplify trainer handicapping like HDW tries to do. That said, I know HTR's trainer ratings are pretty good so there may be something to betting trainers with say 400+ ratings when you have something else you like about the horse -- or even as a saver if the trainer is red hot and the form shows very little.

[delayjf]

I agree with Andicap, trainer handicapping is not as simple as playing a horse because the trainer has shown a winning pattern. I still handicap a horse relative to his competition. I always ask the question, if the horse does turn it around today and runs his race based on his past performance, can he win? With lightly raced horses, this question is not always easy to answer, too often players assume that because a horse failed that it doesn't like the surface or distance or class.

Did anyone notice that the 120.00 winner last week at Delmar was trained by AC Avila was coming off a layoff and Avila wins with 23% of all his layoffs (according to DRF trainer stats). I realized I'm read boarding, but there were clues to the ability of this horse and his current fitness.

A) this horses best beyer was a 67, which was competitive with the best beyers in the field. Yes that beyer was earned on a turf route and the race in question was a dirt sprint. BUT, this horse was not breed for the Turf, so one could assume improvement when placed on a track more to his liking.

B) The horse had a strong workout pattern which included a progression of works that got longer (3f, 4f, 5f, 6f, 7f). I would like to know if this workout pattern is typical of Avila's winning comebackers. Indeed, I think knowing the difference between a trainers successful trainer moves and his also rans is a key to trainer handicapping. (ie workout patterns, odds drops, equipment changes, class changes, specific tracks, Jockeys)

Two schools of thought here, do you jump on the bandwagon of the hot trainer now or follow the more established patterns that have been discovered over time. Last year D Wayne Baker was red hot at Delmar, hitting the board with many horses who outran their odds. This year he's hit the board with a few longshots, but hasn't won with any of them. Mike Marlow on the other had is on fire winning his first three races all with longshots. My experience is that the hot trainers from last year do not repeat the next.

I think it was Canuck that posted the 40% club at Saratoga, I'd be interested to know how they are holding up.

[Fastracehorse]

Get that person well soon

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Did anyone notice that the 120.00 winner last week at Delmar was trained by AC Avila was coming off a layoff and Avila wins with 23% of all his layoffs (according to DRF trainer stats). I realized I'm read boarding, but there were clues to the ability of this horse and his current fitness.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually, that horse had a highly competitive adjusted speedfigure. Was worthy of a play.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<Two schools of thought here, do you jump on the bandwagon of the hot trainer now or follow the more established patterns that have been discovered over time. Last year D Wayne Baker was red hot at Delmar, hitting the board with many horses who outran their odds. This year he's hit the board with a few longshots, but hasn't won with any of them. Mike Marlow on the other had is on fire winning his first three races all with longshots. My experience is that the hot trainers from last year do not repeat the next.

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The danger is this: Most trainers get the job done ( 10 % and less are formidable ).

But you make some excellent points - there are rare circumstances when unusually hot trainers hit the board or better with everything in their barn. Avila had one of those strings for me 3 years ago. Marlow is a low % trainer that has been getting the job done for quite a few months now - overlays.

When high % guys get horses - they are under-lays.

Some low % guys have their trainer intent move.

Understanding trainer intent, which encompasses almost all trainers, is more profitable that trying high % guys. The latter is common sense - but that never works in this game does it??

Or does it?? The common sense of avoiding common sense.

fffastt

[andicap]

Fast,
We're getting there. Basically my daughter had a 102 temp -- turned out to be walking pneumonia. The fever's gone and she's on anti-biotics and she's back at camp.

So you would agree it's worthwhile to follow the moves of the low-mid % trainers (the Frank Alexanders, Mike Miceli, and Bruce Levines of the world)?

[Observer]

Originally posted by andicap
(I'm 10 days behind already due to recent surgery, illness in the family, etc. -- it's been one tough month for our household -- dont ask.)

Just want to send good thoughts to you, and hopes that things soon get easier.

[freeneasy]

kids always seem to get a little better when they know they got sombody fighting a little harder for them then the young fight that they can put up for themselfs at that age. they kind of rest a little easier knowing these kind of things, espeacially little girls to their fathers. it seems

[Maxspa]

All,
Trainers who like their horses chances in a given race often are judging the race from a biased perspective. They tend to overestimate their horse and underestimate the rest of the field. This is a natural reaction, since you work with the horse every day you can measure his sharpness but other trainers are doing the same thing with their charges. I know one trainer in particular who would tell a close friend when he thought his horses had a chance to do well. After several out of the money finishes and just a few winners, he refused to bet on the trainer's advice.
That's why a good handicapper with a solid approach that contains quality data has a better chance than so called inside information.
Maxspa
Andicap- Sorry to hear about your daughter's illness. Hope you
change your mind and enjoy PA Traver's festivities!

[andicap]

Max,
I'll be at the Travers with PA's group -- its a one day only stay for me.

-- Yeah, tomorrow I have my second surgery in 2 weeks -- minor thing, arthoscopic knee surgery for a torn cartildge that's been killing me for 2 weeks. It's 20 minutes, outpatient with a local, so no biggie. Just missing more work tho.

My last surgery was also minor -- deviated septum, repair swelling from botched earlier nasal surgery 10 years ago -- but I was out of work 2 days for that and ended up sleeping much of the time that I had hoped to have to work on my research and watch TVG.
My wife has had to miss a lot of work too for all this stuff so she ends up making up her missed work at nights and on weekends. That means I get zero time on the weekends to work on the races.

[Maxspa]

Andicap,
It's really great that you are coming up to Saratoga even if it's just for Travers. At least there will be two Yankee fans in the red and white tent. We should be up about 6 games by then. The curse of the Bambino? the Red Sox fans never understand its ramifications!! Sorry to hear about your hospital excursions but sometimes they are necessary! I know you'll have much to share about handicapping with the group and because of your input we'll be more aware of the important handicapping factors and how to apply them properly. It will be a great time, see you there.
Maxspa

[Fastracehorse]

Your daughter is better now?? Hope so.

<So you would agree it's worthwhile to follow the moves of the low-mid % trainers (the Frank Alexanders, Mike Miceli, and Bruce Levines of the world)?

++++++++++++++++++++++

They are probably the best bets.

fffastt