What's Wrong With This Morning Line?

[Ocala Mike]

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1st Race - Belmont Park - Thursday, June 3rd, 2010 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 7 Furlongs Turf. Purse $40,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of $19,200 On The Turf Since April 3, 2010 Allowed 2 lbs. Non-winners of a race on the turf since then Allowed 3 lbs. (Races where entered for $35,000 or less not considered in allowances) (Preference by condition eligibility). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at Seven Furlongs on the main track.). (01:00 PM) (10)
Wager Types: Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Daily Double Wagers
Handicapper's Selections: 2,7,1,3
# Horse Odds Jockey Wgt A/S M/E Trainer
1 Not A Peep (NY) 4/1 Cornelio H. Velasquez 120 4 F L o Thomas M. Bush
2 Acquired Cat (NY) 5/2 Eibar Coa 120 6 M L Dominic G. Galluscio
3 Catty Madeline (NY) 4/1 David Cohen 120 5 M L David A. Cannizzo
4 Speed Dating (NY) 5/1 Javier Castellano 120 4 F L Michael E. Hushion
5 Doree Daze (NY) 15/1 John R. Velazquez 120 5 M L Robert J. Reinacher, Jr.
6 Elegant Bess (NY) 10/1 Jose Lezcano 120 4 F L Philip M. Serpe
7 Princess Maura (NY) 3/1 Edgar S. Prado 120 4 F L Richard E. Schosberg
8 Bearursa (NY) 3/1 Ramon A. Dominguez 120 5 M L Steven M. Asmussen
9 Kaydeross (NY) 15/1 Angel Serpa 115 4 F L Bob G. Dunham
10 Spa City Princess (NY) 6/1 Jorge F. Chavez 116 3 F L Patrick J. Kelly


The answer is, unless I'm missing something, is that it adds up to AROUND 170 POINTS, instead of the approximately 120 points it should add up to. Is there a new M/L oddsmaker at NYRA these days?

There are some other M/L's during the day that look a little skewed, but nothing like this.


Ocala Mike

[phatbastard]

um...the 8-9-10 are MTO's


this happens fairly often

[stu]

The same thing happens with Also Eligibles. Most morning line makers tally up the body and then predict odds for the MTO/AE assuming that they draw in which is a hard task because you don't know who in the body of the race will scratch

[Ocala Mike]

Thanks, men. I should have gone right to the DRF PP's to check on any MTO's/AE's. The "art" of making an accurate Morning Line doesn't get any easier for these guys when they have to include horses that might not even be running in their "math." Most of them, especially the NYRA guy(s) and those at what I consider major tracks, do a pretty good job.


Ocala Mike

[Turfday]

Since entries in most places are taken far enough in advance, I found out the morning linemakers often get wind of horses that are "stuck." Trainers who entered their horse and would like to get out of the race for various reasons. Most "stuck" horses do scratch, but some do not.

The morning linemaker may over compensate thinking that the "stuck" horse may come out of the race and hence, change the line considerably depending or not if the stuck horse is a contender or longshot.

[Ocala Mike]

Yeah, Turfday, tell me about "stuck" horses. Years ago, when I frequented NYRA tracks, I used to get wind of the "stuck" horses. Can't tell you how many times I left them off my tickets then watched them come in without me on them!


Ocala Mike