What odds on Eskendereya now?

[horses4courses]

Eskendereya......2010 KY Derby.........odds?

Here's my guess:

M/L 9-5

Post Time 8-5

Triple Crown - no higher than 10-1

[joanied]

Battaglia says 2-1 on Esky, 4-1 on Lucky

[GaryG]

It remains to be seen if Esky can stalk far enough off the pace that is sure to be hot. If he can keep from getting too close to the leaders I like him to win. That is a big "if" when you are looking at low odds. Lucky sure didn't lose anything in the SAD. Looks like those two, but I will keep watching Awesome Act.

[JustRalph]

I can't see the fav being under 4-1 and my guess might even be higher

remember Barbaro was 6-1 if memory serves

[Marshall Bennett]

He'll be under that Ralph, I'm thinking 5-2 .

[bisket]

everything couldn't have went better in the final preps as far as i'm concerned. esky looks unbeatable, and now lucky is a question mark in everyone's eyes. woohoo!! thats about as good of an outlook i could get odds wise for my #1 choice..lucky my exacta of lucky and ice box will pay handsomely.

[turfnsport]

There is 20 in the race and more dumb money than any race all year kids...no way he is less than 5/2.

[Sekrah]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

There is 20 in the race and more dumb money than any race all year kids...no way he is less than 5/2.

Agreed... These people predicting 8/5, 9/5 (or 3/5 in the one thread in the other forum) are either lunatics or horse racing amateurs. Besides looking like an awful bet for the Derby, there's also no logic in thinking Esky will be cheaper than 2-1. He might catch 2.4-1, or 2.3-1.. At the cheapest.. but I certaintly wouldn't be surprised to see him 5/2.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

Agreed... These people predicting 8/5, 9/5 (or 3/5 in the one thread in the other forum) are either lunatics or horse racing amateurs. Besides looking like an awful bet for the Derby, there's also no logic in thinking Esky will be cheaper than 2-1. He might catch 2.4-1, or 2.3-1.. At the cheapest.. but I certaintly wouldn't be surprised to see him 5/2.

Lunatics or amateurs?
You're arguing about a few percentage points here......
I started this thread trying to predict a line on the favorite.
Not saying whether the horse will win, or lose, or if I like his odds.
I can accept 2-1 as a M/L - it's realistic with a large field.
I would venture to say, though, that those lacking expertise will predict 3-1, or higher. Those going too low will say 7-5, or under. Lunatics?

[joanied]

They asked Battaglia on TV what odds he'd give the Derby after Saturday's preps...he said 2-1 on Esky, 4-1 on Lucky, and mentioned one other at short odds, and I'm sorry I can't recall who it was...then he said everyone else after his top three would be double digit odds.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by joanied

They asked Battaglia on TV what odds he'd give the Derby after Saturday's preps...he said 2-1 on Esky, 4-1 on Lucky, and mentioned one other at short odds, and I'm sorry I can't recall who it was...then he said everyone else after his top three would be double digit odds.

He has the final say on the M/L, that's for sure....

I doubt that he will change his opinion very much between now, and the Wednesday before May 1st.

The question after that point will be, how much confidence will big bettors have in the horse?
I think they will play him heavily.

Pletcher's first KY Derby?

[sandpit]

Originally Posted by joanied

They asked Battaglia on TV what odds he'd give the Derby after Saturday's preps...he said 2-1 on Esky, 4-1 on Lucky, and mentioned one other at short odds, and I'm sorry I can't recall who it was...then he said everyone else after his top three would be double digit odds.

Joanie, it was Sidney's Candy he said would be 8-1, then everybody else 15-1 or more.

If the prices play out that way, there will be plenty of enticement to play some bombers.