Poor Recent Speed=Longshots?

[andicap]

My current research has me looking at the 10 best times in my two or three key pace categories across the entire field. I go back 3 months for horses who have raced recently and 6 months for horses who havent or are a couple of races off a layoff. Obviously for layoff horses I go back as well.

Initial finding, looking for reaction: If you have race where the best recent times (last 45 days) are very low in relation to the rest of the "best times" in the field, longer priced horses have a better chance of winning and horses off layoffs have a better chance as well.
I'll then look for horses off layoffs (or 1 or 2 off a layoff) with back numbers that are better than the best recent ones. You'd be surprised at the prices they pay.

I'm looking at more races of course but wondering if anyone else has ever noticed this.

[Tuffmug]

Racing is seasonal. Your scenario occurs regularly at AQ toward end of winter meet as fresh horses start coming back and they walk all over the Winter stock that is worn out. It's also just occured at Saratoga as the best horses are held back from the end of the Belmont spring meeting so they'll be fresh for the bigger purses at Saratoga. Public bets the recent Belmont runners down hard and shun the fresh layoff horses. Big payouts result.

[andicap]

Good point, Tuffmug.
What about the fall when horses have been racing all summer are worn out and lightly raced horses come in and pick them off?

[Tom]

andycap,
I think this probbly happens when they switch to AQU
in the fall. Some stables shoot for the winter racing scene and a lot horses prefer AQU's surface to BEL.
I like to look for "strangers" when nothing has run to par in the last 3 or so races. Is there a shipper or a layofff horse that might be better than this bunch?
Or maybe a recent claim by a better barn and the horse has back speed or back class.
Tom