Why Do Whales Bet Horses? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Robert Goren · 03-11-2010, 10:12 AM

I am wondering why whales bet horses instead of day trading? I would think that if you can make money by dumping large amounts on selected favorites, you could surely make money day trading. I am wonder why they chose racing. The answers could shed a light on how to save racing. I think that day trading not poker or other forms of gambling are the real competition for racing

misscashalot · 03-11-2010, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I am wondering why whales bet horses instead of day trading? I would think that if you can make money by dumping large amounts on selected favorites, you could surely make money day trading. I am wonder why they chose racing. The answers could shed a light on how to save racing. I think that day trading not poker or other forms of gambling are the real competition for racing

You do what you do best.

Fingal · 03-11-2010, 11:08 AM

Opprotunitiy, or if you want to, call it odds or risk vs.reward. To make it easy, why should I buy ( or bet ) say $100 on a stock to make $ 25 when say I could put that on a horse race & make 300, 400 %, or on up on my investment in a less than a couple minutes ? That's why Wall Street is called the biggest Casino in the world.
And there are no Casino games that don't put the edge in the house's favor.

Day trading is like bridge jumping. Both are putting down much to make little.

Horseplayersbet.com · 03-11-2010, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I am wondering why whales bet horses instead of day trading? I would think that if you can make money by dumping large amounts on selected favorites, you could surely make money day trading. I am wonder why they chose racing. The answers could shed a light on how to save racing. I think that day trading not poker or other forms of gambling are the real competition for racing

Early last year I made a $300 deposit at an ADW and I had a good day. Over the course of a just a month, I bet over $85,000 on that account. Took out close $20,000. I was averaging a rebate of around 6.5% then. It took another couple of weeks for the bankroll to drop off to where I had to reload. The only reason I had to reload is because I probably took a little too much out.

Point being, if a whale is getting an average 12% rebate and betting 4-10 times what I bet, their initial investment (other than software programs) doesn't have to be that high at all.

So theoretically, someone could be a whale on an initial bankroll of something like $100k, and wind up betting 4-10 million a year. And if their ROI is .92, they will make 4% of what they bet in this example. At 4 million a year bet, making $160,000 a year betting horses isn't a bad way to make a living (and this is an example of the mini whale).

Dave Schwartz · 03-11-2010, 11:29 AM

They are different investment vehicles with similar purposes: leverage through rollover.

That 100-125 times per year rollover in horses is very attractive.

Difficult to do that in day trading because you are not going to put 100% of your BR in play twice a week.

chickenhead · 03-11-2010, 11:34 AM

maybe a better question is what percentage of people looking to make money on a high volume of small margin trades choose horseracing instead of day trading. I'm guessing its on the order of 0.001%.

formula_2002 · 03-11-2010, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I am wondering why whales bet horses instead of day trading? I would think that if you can make money by dumping large amounts on selected favorites, you could surely make money day trading. I am wonder why they chose racing. The answers could shed a light on how to save racing. I think that day trading not poker or other forms of gambling are the real competition for racing

Take a whale of a sum like $1,000,000 and buy VZ or T and get 6% return,
or but ED and get 5%.

Churn $1,000,000, through the betting window and hope to make 5% to 6%.
Ofcourse your initial bankroll is much less than $1,000,000. that could be the attraction to betting horses..You dont have to be as big a whale as the stock guy.

I think horse race betting whales are also "churned" more often than the stock buying whales.

You may not have the same whales betting horses over a long period of time.
Brain for brain, i think the odds are with the stock guy lasting longer.

Day trading!!!

Robert Goren · 03-11-2010, 12:53 PM

I know a day trader. He buys and sells the same stock 3 or 4 times a day some times and he does it with several stocks. He buys on a 50 cent drop and sells a 50 rise. He has tons of graphs and charts. It seems crazy and very risky to me to me but he makes a lot of money. It seems to me that this is the same type of person who becomes a whale. I did ask him why he chose stocks over horses. He said that betting horses never enter his mind when he was starting. He said he is too far into to think about changing now, but he could see how someone starting out could go the horse racing route. I was just wondering if anyone who knows a whale could find out why he chose it over stocks.

mike_123_ca · 03-11-2010, 04:11 PM

How much does one have to wager to be deemed a whale?

It thinking $100K per month before your betting establishment rolls out the red carpet?

Horseplayersbet.com · 03-11-2010, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike_123_ca

How much does one have to wager to be deemed a whale?

It thinking $100K per month before your betting establishment rolls out the red carpet?

$1 million a year does open doors for you. But decent rates can be had by all if you look hard enough (as long as you live in a free state

). Whales are defined differently depending on who you ask.
Some say $5 million a year, some say $10, some say $25 million.

Track Collector · 03-11-2010, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I know a day trader. He buys and sells the same stock 3 or 4 times a day some times and he does it with several stocks. He buys on a 50 cent drop and sells a 50 rise. He has tons of graphs and charts. It seems crazy and very risky to me to me but he makes a lot of money. It seems to me that this is the same type of person who becomes a whale. I did ask him why he chose stocks over horses. He said that betting horses never enter his mind when he was starting. He said he is too far into to think about changing now, but he could see how someone starting out could go the horse racing route. I was just wondering if anyone who knows a whale could find out why he chose it over stocks.

(a) It is their area of expertise. (Becoming a day trader could involve a significant learning curve, places one outside of their comfort zone for at least the initial period, and has no assurances that the profit/success level will equal that of wagering on horse races.).
(b) Genuine love of the game of horseracing.

TurfRuler · 03-11-2010, 05:34 PM

Whales don't bet a little to win a lot, they bet a lot to win, period!!! Hot dogs used to cost $.05 also. They've got some innovation, like jazz, but if you don't know what it is....bet a little and beat them at their game. St. Kitts got lucky everytime, on that day, unless they have frat boys manipulating the computers...

formula_2002 · 03-11-2010, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike_123_ca

How much does one have to wager to be deemed a whale?

It thinking $100K per month before your betting establishment rolls out the red carpet?

just how many plays can you make in a month and not impact the odds playing $100,000 a month?

just "talking" out loud for a moment.

say 2 bets per day per track.
2 tracks x 2 bets x 5 days per week x 52 weeks =1040 plays per year.
$100,000 X12 months /1040 = $1153 average bet size.
say a bet of 1% on a 1-1 favorite's win pool dollars does not affect the payout (and it can)*.

$1153/.01 = $115,300 fav win pool dollars.
say the fav. is 1-1.. min total pool size= $230,600.
how many races can one find where win pool size is about $230,600, and you have a bet in the race!!

if you can play 4 tracks x 2 plays per year, that would cut your bet size and the min win pool by half.

*.50%= $1 pay off
.50 x 1.01 = .98 cent payoff
Just talking!!

GameTheory · 03-11-2010, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002

just how many plays can you make in a month and not impact the odds playing $100,000 a month?

just "talking" out loud for a moment.

say 2 bets per day per track.

2 bets a day per track? More like betting every race in every pool. Whales bet much more like the latter than the former. Dozens of bets per day per track.

Horseplayersbet.com · 03-11-2010, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002

just how many plays can you make in a month and not impact the odds playing $100,000 a month?

just "talking" out loud for a moment.

say 2 bets per day per track.
2 tracks x 2 bets x 5 days per week x 52 weeks =1040 plays per year.
$100,000 X12 months /1040 = $1153 average bet size.
say a bet of 1% on a 1-1 favorite's win pool dollars does not affect the payout (and it can)*.

$1153/.01 = $115,300 fav win pool dollars.
say the fav. is 1-1.. min total pool size= $230,600.
how many races can one find where win pool size is about $230,600, and you have a bet in the race!!

if you can play 4 tracks x 2 plays per year, that would cut your bet size and the min win pool by half.

*.50%= $1 pay off
.50 x 1.01 = .98 cent payoff
Just talking!!

From what I understand, many whales operate searching for overlays, and they could bet all sorts of combos in the same race if they deem the probability that a certain combo is an overlay. Amounts bet are determined including the impact of their bet.

We are talking a lot of small to medium bets per race at many tracks every day.