Pace @ AQU - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jasperson · 03-04-2010, 09:37 AM

I reread Brohamer's book and tried to handicap AQU as best I could. He are my results. The numbers after the selection are EP,SP,AP respectively. I eliminated the maiden races. Yesterday AQU seemed to favor early speed at the rail. That is why I selected that track to try.
1

1,1,1
2

3,1,1
4

2,1,1
5

3,1,1
7

2,1,1
8

1,1,1

46zilzal · 03-04-2010, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasperson

. Yesterday AQU seemed to favor early speed at the rail. That is why I selected that track to try.

With rare exception, inner AQU favors speed ALL the time and it is NOT just the horse in front either.

You will KNOW you have a good handle on a track when you can turn your back to the broadcast and call the race from your calculations, and then be somewhat close to what the caller AT the track calls them. Of course there are things out of your control (bumps., mis-steps, traffic) but until you can say, like in the first, that the

and

and possibly the

and most likely to run up front by the second call, you are just guessing.

Learn to visualize around the second call: Who can lead or be close to it, and then who can move versus that projected 2nd call in today's match up. NEVER think of a race as having a single outcome as the realities of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the basis of chaos) will rear it's ugly head often. THINK of a race as having different outcomes and then assign a prospective probability (odds line) to each and then decide which offers the best return on that probability.

I would re-evaluate the seven as its best line is 4 back and each successive run, save the last one, has gotten worse.

cj · 03-04-2010, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

With rare exception, inner AQU favors speed ALL the time and it is NOT just the horse in front either.

False. It certainly has some days where it is strongly biased, but it is not even a majority of days, let alone all the time.

46zilzal · 03-04-2010, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

False. It certainly has some days where it is strongly biased, but it is not even a majority of days, let alone all the time.

How many times do I have to have the "little boy" following me around at every post making sure not to poison the minds of people by admitted alternative approaches that are NOT CARBON COPIES OF YOURS?

Remember you speak handicapping English and I speak handicapping Norwegian.

46zilzal · 03-04-2010, 11:34 AM

There are two major definitions of racing style

Brohamer's POSITIONAL definitions which have no relationship to pace of race

Sartin's energy distribution which are defined by reaction to pace of race.

CJ uses the former and I use the latter. BOTH work

the little guy · 03-04-2010, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

False. It certainly has some days where it is strongly biased, but it is not even a majority of days, let alone all the time.

When you quote that guy it defeats the purpose of having him on ignore.

On the other hand, in cases like this, it just reinforces my position.

46zilzal · 03-04-2010, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy

When you quote that guy it defeats the purpose of having him on ignore.

On the other hand, in cases like this, it just reinforces my position.

I wear that as a badge of honor as deleting those not open minded enough to investigate different views of a race versus the same tired old look that abounds here.

Tom · 03-04-2010, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

How many times do I have to have the "little boy" following me around at every post making sure not to poison the minds of people by admitted alternative approaches that are NOT CARBON COPIES OF YOURS?

Remember you speak handicapping English and I speak handicapping Norwegian.

And the thread starter is handicapping in English.
Leaving you, once again, irrelevant. The key word here was Brohamer.

Ted Craven · 03-04-2010, 01:34 PM

Winner (#7) disbursed his E/L energy most late of all ranked.. Perhaps one of those rare occurrences... And the most opposite to that one (i.e. the most Early, #5), placed. Top 2 Total Energy. Among other things, speed does matter.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6649

cheers,

Ted

Ted Craven · 03-04-2010, 02:56 PM

Jasperson, Race #5 your #1 and #3 got scratched. Here's what I see: #2 has credentials but has been trying for a long time, and no value. #4 and #6 have value and are top 3 Total Energy (~AP). #8 is top 2 TE and not too bad early, but give it a chance off such a long layoff - maybe ITM.

Who knows what these lightly raced dogs (er, horses) will do? I thought you were skipping maiden races.

Ted

cj · 03-04-2010, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

CJ uses the former and I use the latter. BOTH work

I, unlike you, can speak both.

46zilzal · 03-04-2010, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I, unlike you, can speak both.

All evidence to the contrary, but live in that belief.

cj · 03-04-2010, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

All evidence to the contrary, but live in that belief.

You always come on and try to give information, but you don't give anything that could actually help the person asking the question. Perhaps if you actually explained how you conclude a track "favors speed all the time" to the person that asked the question it would be beneficial.

However, you would just rather post the same repetitive bits with which offer no usefulness to anyone without some clarification. From now on they will be promptly deleted. They just wind up derailing threads.

Charlie D · 03-04-2010, 04:37 PM

Can't remember title, but Steve Crist wrote a good article( in my humble opinion ) about why speed dominates.

A search of DRF using Aqueduct Inner as keywords may find it.

pandy · 03-04-2010, 05:00 PM

The inner track does not favor inside speed anymore, it did years ago. There are some speed favoring days but there are also many days that favor closers.