Quality Road's 121 Beyer is a sham - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

cj · 02-08-2010, 02:03 PM

Warning: long, boring breakdown on making figures for Donn day so don't read if you aren't interested!

It looks to me like the track was pretty consistent throughout the day. Beyer in fact seems to support this by giving all the one turn races the same adjustment, races 3, 4, 6, and 8.

So, you are left with two races around two turns, races 1 and 10. Race 1 was run with a wickedly fast pace for horses of that ability. It is a very tough race from which to make a variant. I have the raw pace figure coming in 30 points higher than the speed figure, and the winner ran 13 points faster to the pace call. The raw figures are 107 pace, 77 finish.

The winner ran exactly once on dirt, her last where eased at a higher claiming price while showing no ability whatsoever in a slow race. (Side note, I find it hilarious DRF lists her as having 24 "D.Fst" starts.) Her absolute best races have been around a 70 Beyer and all on her preferred polytrack.

The runner up by a length Our Dreamette has a been a very consistent closer running 64, 64, and 63 her last three races. Given the fast pace today I see no reason she wouldn't be able to replicate those figures. If I am going to project a number for this race, it is going to be a 65 giving an additional point for the 1/2 length the winner had on her at the end. This horse has never topped a 66 in 28 career starts. The third finisher six lengths behind has Beyers of 56 and 55 last two and the 65 for the winner puts her right in line with this number.

So, given the raw number of 77, I project a variant of Fast 12 for the track for this route. For some reason, Beyer gives the race a 69, or a FAST 8. I know 4 points doesn't seem like a lot, but when giving 121s off of only two route races I think you have to look at every detail.

For the Donn, I have raw figures of 132 pace, 126 speed, with Quality Road's pace figure at 130. I of course start with him to project a number for the race. His career best figure is a 113 around one turn, and a 111 around 2. His first back was obviously a prep and he was given a 103, but I'd project around that 113 career best. The runner up, Dry Martini had recorded figs of 99, 84, 85, and 93 his last four. He was beaten 12.75 lengths which is about 20 points on the Beyer scale, so this would project a 93. That seems reasonable. I would never assume a horse is going to run his best when trounced by a large distance. Third place Delightful Kiss has run his last three with 91, 81, and 98. With the 113 projection, he would get a 91 seeing he was beaten an additional length. I really think the 113 is a good projection.

So, with a raw figure of 126, I have the track Fast 13. The two routes are Fast 12 and Fast 13, very tight, and given it is more likely QR improved than the runner in the 1st, I'd use the Fast 12 for a variant.

So, the first race gets a 65 and the Donn a 114. I really don't know where that 122 is coming from to be honest. Even if you believe Beyer, why the 3 point difference between the 1st and 10th when all other races are consistent? He takes 8 away from the first, but only 5 from the 10th. It makes no sense.

illinoisbred · 02-08-2010, 02:11 PM

I think you're right on target with your reasoning and logic. If you don't mind me asking ,what was your 1 turn variant?

cj · 02-08-2010, 02:15 PM

I'm not home now, but I think it was 9 Fast.

illinoisbred · 02-08-2010, 02:20 PM

Thank you!

CincyHorseplayer · 02-08-2010, 02:27 PM

This is why my brain turns into tapioca.I'm glad someone else has the daunting task of estimation via speed!Your threads are always information packed and it's much appreciated.Keep em coming.Glad to be viewing this one outside the lines though!

Charlie D · 02-08-2010, 04:22 PM

CJ

Do the Beyer compilers add lengths for ease of win, easing down?? Timeform do this occasionly and it could go some way to explaining the 121

Example:

Zarkava 131, but TF handicappers added a couple of pound for "ease of victory" making her 133

cj · 02-08-2010, 04:28 PM

No, they do not add points for ease of victory.

KidCapper · 02-08-2010, 04:34 PM

I have noticed that Beyer seems to inflate his numbers with big blow out wins. Don't have any pp's on this puter to back that up but I know I have seen this before.

Charlie D · 02-08-2010, 05:00 PM

K

FWIW i have 113 on my figs, but if "ease" was taken into account you could end up with 114, 115, 116, 117 or whatever. Depending on the view taken of course.

bisket · 02-08-2010, 05:47 PM

the track was really a tough read on saturday. i had a difficult time of it myself, and play this track rather regularly. i usually only play weekend cards, but keep up with how the track plays on a daily basis. the way i looked at it was it was a touch tiring. it rained the evening beforehand, and probably not enough to change it from fast to good. although i don't think it was playing quite as fast as the previous few weeks. i think a telling race would be the non winners of 1 allowance for 4 year and up fillies and mares. the 1st and 2nd place finishers have on a regular basis raced 2-3 fifths off the variant on a regular basis. you drop 2/5 off their race time of 1:38 2/5 and you get a time thats 2 seconds above 136 (12 second furs). another race that reinforces this plus 2 second variant (2 seconds above 12 sec furs) would be wildcat frankie's race. graded stakes quality 3 year olds generally run their races roughly around the variant time this time of year. thats what frankie appears to be because his 1 mile race was timed at 138 2/5. the allowance for 4 year olds was a 1 turn mile so you can add 3/5 of a second for the extra turn for quality road. the 1 mile distance doesn't have a run up, and 1 1/8 mile does have a run up of 80 feet. so we can drop 1/5 off the deduction for the turn so we'll deduct 2/5 of a second off quality's race taking into consideration the run up and the turn. that gives you a time 147 flat. so quality beat the variant by 3 seconds. pretty good performance!!!

Saratoga_Mike · 02-08-2010, 06:09 PM

To be precise, I believe the raw figure for the Donn was 127 (147.49), so I think that would bump CJ's estimate up to 115. He may not use a 1/10th of second Beyer scale, which is reasonable.

I rarely attempt to make figures for GP, but I did after the Donn and I posted my thoughts shortly after the race. I thought QR earned a 118 or 119, lower than Beyer, but higher than CJ.

Couple of questions for CJ. I thought the track seemed to be playing faster for the 2 two-turn dirt races than the one-turn dirt races (specifically referencing race 3 and 4, not race 6)? You didn't find that to be the case? Wasn't there an issue with the Beyers (one-turn vs two-turn) at GP last yr or perhaps in 2008? Thanks.

cj · 02-08-2010, 06:10 PM

I use time to the 1/100th.

Saratoga_Mike · 02-08-2010, 06:11 PM

I think you're mocking my 1/10 of a second comment, but not sure. If so, I deserved it.

cj · 02-08-2010, 06:14 PM

Yes, I do think the track played faster for two turn races by a little bit. I'm not mocking, I really do use 100ths. Why wouldn't I if they are available?

bisket · 02-08-2010, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Yes, I do think the track played faster for two turn races by a little bit. I'm not mocking, I really do use 100ths. Why wouldn't I if they are available?

because basing bets on times that precise is silly