turf races and software - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

redeye007 · 10-20-2009, 06:09 AM

I've noticed that it pays to review the records of the entries in grass races. sometimes there are animals with no starts in the US that offer very high value and cannot be picked up by most software programs. especially events for fillies and mares. some of these females have dominated open events for both sexes in europe and go completely overlooked by the crowd especially if they've beaten half the field in open events for both sexes where the size of the field is 12+ runners. a capable jockey and trainer is also a good plus. very often the record indicates this european import to be the class of the field completely being overlooked. there is definitely hidden bonanzas in some grass races.

illinoisbred · 10-20-2009, 06:42 AM

I agree with you regarding the 1st out for an import,but have you noticed that if they don't win 1st out they're usually poor bets until after they do win here?

Pace Cap'n · 10-20-2009, 07:30 AM

One of my favorite angles: foreign horse, 1st time lasix.

the_fat_man · 10-20-2009, 10:55 AM

Pete Sampras once stated that he'd always be a threat at Wimbeldon as long he 'had his right arm'. That is, even if he didn't have anything else left in his game, he'd still be competitive because of his serve.

Similarly, anyone who can TRIP will always be a threat on the TURF, as TRIPS rule turf races. 1st time lasix, imports, breeding for 1st time starters, etc., are simply tools utilized by those who can't trip well enough to win consistently playing the turf.

When someone writes a program that I can tweak and get it to TRIP the way I do, I'd be the 1st one to buy it.

Tom · 10-20-2009, 11:09 AM

Or, trips are tools for those who cannot use the other tools.

btw, how do you trip a FTS?

the_fat_man · 10-20-2009, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

Or, trips are tools for those who cannot use the other tools.

btw, how do you trip a FTS?

I think you've turned this on its head. It's those UNABLE to win TRIPPING that need to resort to using all those other tools. This is why so many, basically, have no real knowledge of the game. They're crunching numbers with no real idea of what they mean. They're doing META-handicapping rather than handicapping. They're able to thus discuss the methodolgy of handicapping much better than the nuances of the game.

Of course, you're not only the #1 poster here but you've probably spent more money on other peoples' data, methods, and software over the course of your handicapping career than most people have probably wagered over a similar period of time.

Hey, it works for you but, for some, it's a lot simpler (and equally or more fruitful) to develop a single skill and stick with it.

As for FTS: rather than pay for (or develop) data giving firster/trainer stats, I'll just pass the race if I don't like anything that's already run. There's no pressure for me to bet these races and they're no more than a guess. I realize that every so often a BOMB comes in. So what? There are plenty of BOMBS that have already run.

Not like I'm a public handicapper and forced to have an opinion on EVERY race (and make it seem like I'm enjoying doing it.)

Tom · 10-20-2009, 07:42 PM

If it work for you, great , but don't presume to know what others are doing.
Trips are ONE tool, nothing more. It's not like you discovered the Holy Grail or anything. You found a little niche you fit in. Good for you. Pass the ones you can't handle and others will play them. It's a big game, and you are a little player in it, who has a "46" complex that his is the only way. It is not.

bisket · 10-20-2009, 07:53 PM

handicapping turf racing boils down to one thing. the vast majority of time they come out of the turn into the stretch, and theres usually 4-5 horses trying to make it first to 2-3 holes. whomever makes it through in the best shape is your winner most times. if you can figure which horse will be where at that point your well on the way to a winning pick.

Pace Cap'n · 10-20-2009, 08:17 PM

I've known tripping quite well since the sixties, but I never thought to apply it to handicapping. I'll have to check that out.

Tom · 10-20-2009, 08:43 PM

Too bad Groovy retired!

illinoisbred · 10-20-2009, 10:20 PM

A horse's running style has a lot to do with the kind of trip they're likely to get. A good trip today shouldn't necessarily be down-graded next time and a poor trip shouldn't always be up-graded. Certain types[closers] consistently suffer poor trips, even in small fields. To anticipate who may or may not get a bad /good trip today might resemble crystal ball gazing.

CBedo · 10-21-2009, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinoisbred

A horse's running style has a lot to do with the kind of trip they're likely to get. A good trip today shouldn't necessarily be down-graded next time and a poor trip shouldn't always be up-graded. Certain types[closers] consistently suffer poor trips, even in small fields. To anticipate who may or may not get a bad /good trip today might resemble crystal ball gazing.

I agree with this completely. I did a small (very small) Trakus study some time ago, and found, as you would expect, that for the most part, horses that had run longer distances in past races tended to run longer distances in their current race.

ranchwest · 10-21-2009, 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBedo

I agree with this completely. I did a small (very small) Trakus study some time ago, and found, as you would expect, that for the most part, horses that had run longer distances in past races tended to run longer distances in their current race.

Yeah, but I don't think most horses are very good at geometry. Many times, the finish position of the late runners has little to do with the late runners.

illinoisbred · 10-21-2009, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Yeah, but I don't think most horses are very good at geometry. Many times, the finish position of the late runners has little to do with the late runners.

I agree. It's hard to close on a slow pace with a good trip.

ranchwest · 10-21-2009, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinoisbred

I agree. It's hard to close on a slow pace with a good trip.

I think slow pace accounts for a lot of "bad trips". When all of the non-S horses rev up on the turn at one time, the S horse has to go 7 wide (example) on the turn. Back in the day, if you bet on Pat "Wait All" Day, he might wait for those 6 horses to sort themselves out, but most jocks feel they must move before the stretch and will jerk 7 wide and their horse is out of the race.