isn't exotic betting,betting blind? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

acorn54 · 10-19-2009, 02:14 AM

in win betting,exacta and quinella betting you can see the potential payoffs and decide if you are getting value
however in triples and other exotic betting schemes you are unaware of the probable payoffs, so is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs? you have no guide to whether you are getting value for your wagering dollar.

Imriledup · 10-19-2009, 02:20 AM

I guess people just assume in the long run that they'll get 'what they are supposed to get' most of the time.

I've always advocated that you should be able to 'check a price' if you want to. You can check prices in Target before you purchase goods, why not have the ability to plug in any random Tri price and find out how much money is on that combo?

CBedo · 10-19-2009, 02:21 AM

Although it would be great to have payoff information for these exotics, you're not totally blind. Experience gives you some guide to what payoffs could be based on inference from win odds, exacta & double odds as well. Also your wagering history should give you some guidance to where the value is.

acorn54 · 10-19-2009, 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBedo

Although it would be great to have payoff information for these exotics, you're not totally blind. Experience gives you some guide to what payoffs could be based on inference from win odds, exacta & double odds as well. Also your wagering history should give you some guidance to where the value is.

i don't know about you but i have been wagering on the horses since 1978 and still to this day i can't predict what the win odds are going to be in a reliable fashion that suits me. as a matter of fact oftentimes it's the horses that go off at higher odds than i would have suspected that give me the greatest value.

CBedo · 10-19-2009, 03:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acorn54

i don't know about you but i have been wagering on the horses since 1978 and still to this day i can't predict what the win odds are going to be in a reliable fashion that suits me. as a matter of fact oftentimes it's the horses that go off at higher odds than i would have suspected that give me the greatest value.

Predicting win odds is a whole different discussion. Your question was about betting blind into some of the exotics, and my point was that you can use the public's win odds & exotic payoffs that you can see to estimate the exotic payoffs that you can't see.

JustCoolGene · 10-19-2009, 04:43 AM

There are two ways to handle betting the exotics when you are blind to the payoffs because you don't have the actual payoffs for each possible exotic ticket.

One way is the method CBedo mentioned "using the public's win odds & exotic payoffs that you can see to estimate the exotic payoffs that you can't see". The best way to handle the calculations with this method is ATR or "At the Races" software. This software downloads the real time payoffs in all Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinilla, and Daily Double pools. It uses these pools to infer odds in unseen exotics like the trifecta. ATR allows the actual and inferred payoffs to be automatically exported to a cvs file minutes before the race goes off. Plenty of time for your software to use this file to generate a list to manually enter your selected bets or use the file to generate a list of selections to be loaded into PremierTurfClub or Youbet's conditional wagering system.

The second way is if you have a "good" program that predicts how the public bets and what the final odds will be. This "public" predicted oddsline can be used to generate an inferred odds payoff for any exotic.

God Bless All
Gene

acorn54 · 10-19-2009, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustCoolGene

There are two ways to handle betting the exotics when you are blind to the payoffs because you don't have the actual payoffs for each possible exotic ticket.

One way is the method CBedo mentioned "using the public's win odds & exotic payoffs that you can see to estimate the exotic payoffs that you can't see". The best way to handle the calculations with this method is ATR or "At the Races" software. This software downloads the real time payoffs in all Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinilla, and Daily Double pools. It uses these pools to infer odds in unseen exotics like the trifecta. ATR allows the actual and inferred payoffs to be automatically exported to a cvs file minutes before the race goes off. Plenty of time for your software to use this file to generate a list to manually enter your selected bets or use the file to generate a list of selections to be loaded into PremierTurfClub or Youbet's conditional wagering system.
it seems to me you are making a big assumtion that the win odds can be a guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.

The second way is if you have a "good" program that predicts how the public bets and what the final odds will be. This "public" predicted oddsline can be used to generate an inferred odds payoff for any exotic.

God Bless All
Gene

it seems to me you are making a big assumption that the win odds can be a reliable guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.

SchagFactorToWin · 10-19-2009, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustCoolGene

There are two ways to handle betting the exotics when you are blind to the payoffs because you don't have the actual payoffs for each possible exotic ticket...
Gene

Thanks for the ATR tip. I spent the weekend trying to figure out how to track the exacta payouts for my picks. This seems perfect.

Light · 10-19-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acorn54

is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs?

This is why there is something called "ticket construction" for those kinds of wagers.

acorn54 · 10-19-2009, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Light

This is why there is something called "ticket construction" for those kinds of wagers.

i don't see the connection between ticket construction and not knowing the possible payoffs of triples and other exotics, please explain

formula_2002 · 10-19-2009, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acorn54

in win betting,exacta and quinella betting you can see the potential payoffs and decide if you are getting value
however in triples and other exotic betting schemes you are unaware of the probable payoffs, so is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs? you have no guide to whether you are getting value for your wagering dollar.

if you has enough history of your "blind bets", it may give you an insight to future blind bet results.

such as ;
"For a previous exacta analysis of the model, see http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...ead.php?t=61591"

CBedo · 10-19-2009, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acorn54

it seems to me you are making a big assumption that the win odds can be a reliable guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.

It's not an assumption; it's true if you look at historical payoff relationships, you can get an idea of what's going on. The assumption is that the relationships haven't changed today. It won't be right 100% of the time, but it will guide you in value decisions most of the time, and since usually most require big edges to play those exotics anyway, you don't have to split hairs between small differences. You're just trying to get an idea if the edge will be there or not.

acorn54 · 10-19-2009, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBedo

It's not an assumption; it's true if you look at historical payoff relationships, you can get an idea of what's going on. The assumption is that the relationships haven't changed today. It won't be right 100% of the time, but it will guide you in value decisions most of the time, and since usually most require big edges to play those exotics anyway, you don't have to split hairs between small differences. You're just trying to get an idea if the edge will be there or not.

i find it hard to believe there is an accurate correlation between win odds and odds in exotics since you are using win bettor percerptions of a horses chances versus horseplayers who play the exotics, but if you are satisfied with the results you are getting i can't argue with success.

fmolf · 10-19-2009, 03:20 PM

not only can you not see if you are getting value but usually the takeout is much higher in these wagers.In my opinion their is too much diversity on most wagering menus at all tracks.I liked it better when the only triple on the card was the ninth race at nyra tracks and the exacta was a five dollar bet.Their is so many wagering choices today on each race that money is spread around thinly.My opinion is less would be more.Meadows stated that tris and supers are sucker bets!...I am experimenting with different methods of playing them because they do offer large payouts when you hit which is why they are so popular i am guessing.

CBedo · 10-19-2009, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acorn54

i find it hard to believe there is an accurate correlation between win odds and odds in exotics since you are using win bettor percerptions of a horses chances versus horseplayers who play the exotics, but if you are satisfied with the results you are getting i can't argue with success.

It's not about "belief" or "faith," it's just about the math, and if you choose not to believe it or not to do the work, then I guess you are betting blind.