Handicapping Saratoga

[rispa]

Hi all;

Anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming Saratoga meet which starts a week from Wednesday, and/or what to expect in 2009?

Thanks.

[1st time lasix]

The Spaaaa.....mmmm....what to expect---nice crowds although may be a bit down from last year. Quickly changing track conditions {bias} based on Summer rain downpours. High takeouts on tris, supers, pick 3, 4, and pick 6's....lower takeouts on win, exacta and doubles. Too many carded NY bred races. Chalk favorites winning around 35% of the time despite the track's old reputation as the "graveyard of favorites." Lots of nice well bred two year old's making their debuts. Many trainer-jocky combinations being underlays. Restaurants and bars in Saratoga alive with action after all the tickets have been torn up and thrown away.

[46zilzal]

Very formful. Very few hidden moves. A great meeting

[markgoldie]

After a bad day at the windows, you can always spin over to the trots at night to try to get even. Had some summers where I would have been better off just playing the trotters and passing the t-breds. Did see the famous epic battle between Jaipur and Ridan in the Travers. Lord knows what year that was. Do remember that the two of them were so gassed from dueling that a little-known upstart by the name of Military Plume was flying at the end and almost ruined the storybook race. Remember my favorite jockey was Johnny Sellers. But this is off topic, sorry.

[KingChas]

Go to DRF and click on Saratoga-Saratoga trainer stats-sample pages.
They give you a few free pdf files from last year.
Jockey stats,wet sire stats,Contessa stats.
Click on save file and put them in a folder.
Not much, but nice little freebies.
Good luck "At the Spa".

[MickJ26]

Pay attention to Linda Rice.
She often gets overlooked at Saratoga.
Her winning percentage is up there with the big boys.

[cj's dad]

My hardest track to h'cap- possibly because I'm hanging out in the "big red tent" drinking ice cold beer all day with the PA crew.

[badcompany]

Pletcher tends to get overbet. So, if you can find a race in which you think he's vunerable, overlays can be had.

The trainer that's hot early in the meet will often be cold later in the meet because his well spotted horses that won will have had to move up in class and are often in over their head, but the public still bets the "Hot Trainer."

I like to keep my bets smaller earlier in the meet because there are horses coming from everywhere and there simply are too many unknowns. It's kinda like the Derby in that way.

To elaborate on what Mark said about the trotters, the Racino has a pretty good all-you-can-eat buffet, with tip, it's $20. You can sit there and handicap while you gorge yourself.

[rrbauer]

Originally Posted by badcompany

... the Racino has a pretty good all-you-can-eat buffet, with tip, it's $20. You can sit there and handicap while you gorge yourself.

You can also build your own ala carte meal from their offerings for less than $10.

BRIS had a copy of this newsletter in their last issue of Handicapping Times that covers both Del Mar and Saratoga.

http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/...20Software.pdf

[califhorse]

clocked some in the a.m. from the gate. almost fell over when the posted times came up three seconds slower than mine the next day in the office. followed these. as you can guess, were pounded in dbls & p3s. they ALL WON, my advice is to follow the $ and will pays, esp. in baby mdn. races. as told to me by a great, late, clocker, " DON'T BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE IN THE FORM '' So, what im saying is, "the boys" make their scores at the SPA. you too can score if you stay focused. good luck !

[offtrack]

Saw a bullet work held at the request of the trainer on an unraced colt. Clockers
said the rule was the trainer had to request it. So indeed be careful with the unraced horses.

[parimutual]

Anyone know the status of Siros? I see they have booked their entertainment for the post race cocktail parties but with the place for sale could changes be far behind? Any changes in dining and entertainment options?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by califhorse

clocked some in the a.m. from the gate. almost fell over when the posted times came up three seconds slower than mine the next day in the office. followed these. as you can guess, were pounded in dbls & p3s. they ALL WON, my advice is to follow the $ and will pays, esp. in baby mdn. races. as told to me by a great, late, clocker, " DON'T BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE IN THE FORM '' So, what im saying is, "the boys" make their scores at the SPA. you too can score if you stay focused. good luck !

While I imagine most here understand how to deal with workouts, I think a quick study of 2YO maiden results at Saratoga recently will prove this completely untrue. It seems to me since the unfortunate death of Marty ( the Clocker ) Katz a few years ago, the tote action on 2YO maiden races in NY has been misleading on a regular basis.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Very formful. Very few hidden moves. A great meeting

Yes there have been meets that were quite formful, there have also been meets that were impossible. Sometimes the chalk does poorly in the beginning of the meet, then improves during the last two weeks. Last year the favorites won 33% but it was not an easy meet for "form" handicappers, even the better public handicappers did poorly.

Time will tell if this meet is going to be chalky or impossible, but it could go either way at the Spa.

[Easy Goer]

Over the years I've always made some nice coin by backing two trainers who often do well @ Saratoga, although I'll admit that last year it didnt work out as good as it had in past years. Still its been so good for me before then that I'm going to stick with it.

Those two trainers are H. James Bond & Nick Zito. I know these two are household names, but for some reason their horses go off at decent prices & they run well (ITM). I was told that it had something to do with them training their horses year round at Saratoga, but I'm not totally sure about this.