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Old 07-12-2009, 03:27 PM   #1
Valuist
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NFL: judging the WRs

So what is the best way to judge WR production? Since the NFL has started tracking "targets", the number of passes thrown to a receiver, one can easily determine production: yards per target. Here's the top 10 from the past 2 years combined, with a minimum of 175 targets:

1. Greg Jennings 9.8
2. Andre Johnson 9.5
Vincent Jackson 9.5
4. Reggie Wayne 9.3
5. Roddy White 9.1
6. Santonio Holmes 8.9
7. Larry Fitzgerald 8.8
Randy Moss 8.8
9. Donald Driver 8.7
Steve Smith (Car) 8.7
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Old 07-14-2009, 09:27 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
So what is the best way to judge WR production? Since the NFL has started tracking "targets", the number of passes thrown to a receiver, one can easily determine production: yards per target. Here's the top 10 from the past 2 years combined, with a minimum of 175 targets:

1. Greg Jennings 9.8
2. Andre Johnson 9.5
Vincent Jackson 9.5
4. Reggie Wayne 9.3
5. Roddy White 9.1
6. Santonio Holmes 8.9
7. Larry Fitzgerald 8.8
Randy Moss 8.8
9. Donald Driver 8.7
Steve Smith (Car) 8.7
It's not a bad rationale, but I refuse to believe that Vincent Jackson is a better receiver than those from fourth to seventh (and Smith). The Chargers went pass-happy this year due to LDT slowing down, and that inflated his stats considerably, it seems.
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:36 AM   #3
ghostyapper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
So what is the best way to judge WR production? Since the NFL has started tracking "targets", the number of passes thrown to a receiver, one can easily determine production: yards per target. Here's the top 10 from the past 2 years combined, with a minimum of 175 targets:

1. Greg Jennings 9.8
2. Andre Johnson 9.5
Vincent Jackson 9.5
4. Reggie Wayne 9.3
5. Roddy White 9.1
6. Santonio Holmes 8.9
7. Larry Fitzgerald 8.8
Randy Moss 8.8
9. Donald Driver 8.7
Steve Smith (Car) 8.7
Any number system judging wide receivers is flawed since so much depends on the qb throwing the ball. I still consider steve smith the best wr in the game.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:53 PM   #4
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A fair point about the QB but I stand by the fact that it is the best metric I've seen for the position. As for Bubble's remark about Vincent Jackson, I was a bit surprised myself but the numbers don't lie; not with over 175 targets. I don't know how many times SD was on national TV but that might explain the difference between perception and reality.

Some might wonder why TO isn't in there. He was either first or 2nd in drops in 2007 and at 8.5 he still was good, but showing signs of age.
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