What kind of Pace for Derby? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

JustRalph · 05-02-2003, 03:12 AM

I am interested in thoughts on what the pace is going to be like in the Derby? I can't seem to decide what I think about it. If it isn't very fast I think that it will run pretty formful therefore I keep most of my money in my pocket. I guessed right on pace last year and made some money........but I just don't know about this year. I am wondering if somebody is just going to hang it all out again........and run a hot pace ala Balto Star and Songandaprayer. If so I think it could upset this field to no end. Any Comments?

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2003, 03:29 AM

Well, according to BRIS, there are no "E" style horses in the race...and for a 17 horse field, that has to count for something.

I can't see this being a hot pace, not even close. I don't see the closers as having any real sort of advantage, when you consider the traffic and the lack of a hot pace.

My 2 cents.

cj · 05-02-2003, 02:12 PM

I'd love to know how BRIS figures Indian Express isn't an E type. One route, and right to the front in fast time. Can't trust a guesstimate like that.

CJ

JustRalph · 05-02-2003, 04:29 PM

What about Funny Cide...? he may be an up fronter in this crowd.

70 views and only two reply? come on guys.....this may be the most important part of the race...........with Sir Cherokee out now...it gets even more interesting.

plainolebill · 05-02-2003, 08:41 PM

I'll bite. Brancusi seems to be commited to the front from the two hole. I don't think Biancone would have picked that gate if they didn't want to go. If Farina doesn't send him he's probably screwed. There are at least four horses that could be going for the lead, it'll be a race to the first turn for sure. If Peace Rules doesn't go, he's in the second flight on the rail. But I've been wrong more than I've been right.

Early · 05-02-2003, 10:41 PM

Here's my guess. Brancusi certainly can fire out of the gate, as you saw the opening strides in the Blue Grass. Tyler Baze is pretty sure to put Indian Express into the battle early. Funny Cide will probably sit just off, but who knows, maybe Santos will gun right to the front. Doesn't Peace Rules belong on the front end?

Looking at all the entrants a lukewarm pace seems logical. However, you put four horses intent on the front end and the pace can be a lot hotter than anticipated. It will depend on the jockeys I think.

4 front runners and 4 stalkers don't fit on the track very well.

Scenario 1 - Brancusi fires hard along the inside and the others are happy to sit off his flank, even if they are 3 or 4 wide. 23, 47, 111 and 4 and they all have a chance of finishing well.

Scenario 2 - Prado, Santos and Baze all decide they really want to be in control and/or the horses don't relax. They battle up front 22 and 3, 46 and 2, 110 and they all die. Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted inherit the front turning for home and try to hold off the late closers.

The question is, which is the most likely scenario.

Tom · 05-02-2003, 11:42 PM

Hope this lines up......
F= front runner E = early presser QP% = Speed point percentage
Throw out anything with F3<50.00 fps.

Code:

Horse		Qp%	RS	Fr1	Fr2	Fr3
Indian Express	8	*E	56.65!	53.32	49.54
Scrimshaw	10	*E	55.94	53.73	49.86
Eye of the Tige	8	P	55.88	53.63	49.12
Funny Cide	8	E	55.87	54.71	49.84
Ten Most Wanted	7	E	55.79	52.96	49.89
Peace Rules	10	*F	55.78	54.79	49.98
Brancusi	10	*E	55.70	54.65	48.36
Domestic Disput	4	P	55.67	54.03	49.03
Buddy Gil	6	P	55.58	54.21	50.28
Offlee Wild	6	E	55.38	54.65	47.62
Empire Maker	7	P	55.25	53.96	51.41
Outta Here	3	S	54.95	55.25	51.34
Ten Cents a Shi	3	S	54.78	52.62	51.72
Atswhatimtalknb	0	S	54.76	54.10	50.38
Lone Star Sky	4	P	54.69	53.66	52.15
Supah Blitz	1	S	54.13	54.88	51.13

rastajenk · 05-03-2003, 12:08 AM

Almost every year I fill in the entire Derby chart in advance, all the points of call, margins, times, odds, everything but comments. It's the only race of the year that I look at pace that way...it's not enough to say, "so-and-so will be close up early, etc." In order to do the chart, I need to visualize where every horse will be, and why.

Last year, I had War Emblem and Proud Citizen galloping along as they did, with the easy fractions they put up, up to the stretch call. Then I wienied out, and had what I thought were classier animals pass them when they finally got challenged. Right idea, wrong result.

The previous year, I had all of the players involved in that speed duel going at it, but I had Point Given get the jump on Monarchos on the turn, instead of the vice versa that actually occurred.

This year, I have Indian Express, Brancusi, and Funny Cide contending through the turn in 23-1/5 and 46-4/5, with Peace Rules waiting in fourth. The wider path Baze has to take is going to cost him later. Peace Rules replaces Brancusi in the first flight down the backstretch, 6f in 1:10-4/5. Funny Cide and Peace lead the way around the turn, while Empire Maker starts picking off horses to get close. They get a mile in 1:35-4/5.

Recent history suggests that's the extent of my expertise. You're on your own after that.

(Just for the record, I have EM reaching the front at the eighth pole and pulling away. Ats, TenMost, and LoneStar make late moves to catch the pacesetters without threatening the winner.)

plainolebill · 05-03-2003, 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Early
Here's my guess. Brancusi certainly can fire out of the gate, as you saw the opening strides in the Blue Grass. Tyler Baze is pretty sure to put Indian Express into the battle early. Funny Cide will probably sit just off, but who knows, maybe Santos will gun right to the front. Doesn't Peace Rules belong on the front end?

Looking at all the entrants a lukewarm pace seems logical. However, you put four horses intent on the front end and the pace can be a lot hotter than anticipated. It will depend on the jockeys I think.

4 front runners and 4 stalkers don't fit on the track very well.

Scenario 1 - Brancusi fires hard along the inside and the others are happy to sit off his flank, even if they are 3 or 4 wide. 23, 47, 111 and 4 and they all have a chance of finishing well.

Scenario 2 - Prado, Santos and Baze all decide they really want to be in control and/or the horses don't relax. They battle up front 22 and 3, 46 and 2, 110 and they all die. Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted inherit the front turning for home and try to hold off the late closers.

The question is, which is the most likely scenario.

One other question: Which of these four will be content to settle behind the other three? Or will be able to run their race from that spot? I know, thats two questions.

JustRalph · 05-03-2003, 01:03 AM

I appreciate your guys input. I am kind of liking the odds on Funny Cide right now. Looks like this horse is being overlooked big time. He ran within 3 lengths of Peace Rules, then takes on Empire and loses by 1/2. I don't really know how to measure that race with EM but if the odds are right I am not going to overlook Funny Cide. I think he is a 2nd tier horse down the back and if he has anything left he will have less traffic to get thru than the Frankel horses. He will either stay up or fade. At around 20-1 what the heck. Thanks.

kenwoodall · 05-03-2003, 04:15 AM

Track will be very fast but all horse will be held back. Most competitive horses will be there at the end. My picks Buddy Gil, Peace Rules, Ten Most Wanted. I do not think Empire Maker is healthy. Buddy Gil ran very even fractions in the SA Derby.

Early · 05-03-2003, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by plainolebill
One other question: Which of these four will be content to settle behind the other three? Or will be able to run their race from that spot? I know, thats two questions.

There is not a Keats or Songandaprayer among them. I believe every horse mentioned is capable of laying just off the pace and firing his best shot. It will either be a trainer giving instructions 'get to the front' or a jockey spur of the moment decision as the race unfolds.

Brancusi looked quite happy in the San Felipe when he was tracking in 3rd before taking the lead turning for home. Same for Funny Cide in the Wood. Peace Rules ran his most impressive race stalking Funny Cide in the La Derby. So, I believe they can all rate off the pace comfortably.

When they pop that gate open with 150,000 screaming lunatics, that's another question.

rastajenk · 05-04-2003, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Peace Rules replaces Brancusi in the first flight down the backstretch, 6f in 1:10-4/5. Funny Cide and Peace lead the way around the turn, while Empire Maker starts picking off horses to get close. They get a mile in 1:35-4/5.

(Those fractions turned out to be 1:10-2 and 1:35-3.)

This is what pisses me off year after year. Overall, I had a pretty good feel for what could have happened; but what do I have to show for it? A fistful of nothin'....Crap-o-la.

Well, there's always next year.