RACHEL & THE BELMONT:FUTURE ODDS

[NY BRED]

Despite buying seats for the Belmont, I'm adding several factors which
lead me to feel Rachel doesn't enter the Belmont.

Mike Smith taking off MTB to ride in Ca for Jerry Moss and not ride MTB
in the Belmont seems to indicate the MTB owners believe Calvin will be available to ride in the Belmont.The fact we are waiting for the results of a w/o on Monday, underscores the Filly was hard used in the Preakness
.


I've posted this earlier, but watch how hard RA was used in mid stretch, whipped at least 15-17 times which was never the case in her previous
races against fillies.While Bill Finley feels she l should run, what real
value is there to risk the filly against fresh horses in the Belmont,as against
the crew she met in the Preakness?

There are various races she would qualify in during the next few months
such as The Travers, Breeders Cup etc, AFTER she is turned out. which
inmho is the right thing to do.

This is a special filly who has already has posted an impeccable
career topped with a victory in the Preakness, which only adds
to her future breeding career.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by NY BRED

Despite buying seats for the Belmont, I'm adding several factors which
lead me to feel Rachel doesn't enter the Belmont.

Mike Smith taking off MTB to ride in Ca for Jerry Moss and not ride MTB
in the Belmont seems to indicate the MTB owners believe Calvin will be available to ride in the Belmont.The fact we are waiting for the results of a w/o on Monday, underscores the Filly was hard used in the Preakness
.


I've posted this earlier, but watch how hard RA was used in mid stretch, whipped at least 15-17 times which was never the case in her previous
races against fillies.While Bill Finley feels she l should run, what real
value is there to risk the filly against fresh horses in the Belmont,as against
the crew she met in the Preakness?

There are various races she would qualify in during the next few months
such as The Travers, Breeders Cup etc, AFTER she is turned out. which
inmho is the right thing to do.

This is a special filly who has already has posted an impeccable
career topped with a victory in the Preakness, which only adds
to her future breeding career.

I don't think Mike not riding MTB in the Belmont would have anything to do with it...his agent had told Woolley before the Preaness that Mike was committed to ride Madeo on Belmont Day.

I read the Finley article too...in fact, I posted about it in another thread (Dutrow not big on rest)...Finley makes some good points.
I didn't realize Calvin hit her that many times...I'll have to look at the race again...I assume you're sure about that? But, remember, sometimes from our prespective (watching a race)...it looks as if a jock is hitting his mount, but in reality, is just showing the whip, going through the motion of a hit...

Yes, there are several great races she can run in later on, and compete with the colts...but, at this point in time, not many folks are even thinking about that...we're all holding our breath until she works on Monday...

as for her future breeding career...Jackson has that all planned and I'm sure he'll keep keep her first foal (by Curlin) to race himself...after that, sky is the limit for any offspring she produces that goes to the sales...wether or not she ever wins another race...she's already prooven she is special.

As for my opinion about her running in the Belmont or not...it's like having the little angel and devil on your shoulders...one says...run her...the other says...don't

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by NY BRED

I've posted this earlier, but watch how hard RA was used in mid stretch, whipped at least 15-17 times which was never the case in her previous
races against fillies.

Are you sure about that? I thought someone else posted he hit her only a couple of times, while showing her the whip the rest....

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Are you sure about that? I thought someone else posted he hit her only a couple of times, while showing her the whip the rest....

I watched the replay a bunch, and Calvin was flailing away with his left arm. Now, he was either smacking his filly or he was motioning for MTB to come by on the inside. My guess is he was smacking his filly.

[PaceAdvantage]

The head on would definitely solve this mystery...I would be pretty shocked if Calvin hit her anywhere near 17 times....

[WinterTriangle]

As I said previously, only her trainer knows what would be best for her right now.


But I gotta ask, again.........what's the big rush? She already did an amazing thing.

I am thinking it is somewhat "selfish" to want to pressure-cook this still young developing super-talent into match races ..... every topic has her either having to prove herself again against the boys again in the Belmont, or running against Zenyatta.

So.........what *is* the rush? If I understand that, and somebody can explain this to me, I guess I'll be better able formulate a reasonable opinion.

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

As I said previously, only her trainer knows what would be best for her right now.


But I gotta ask, again.........what's the big rush? She already did an amazing thing.

I am thinking it is somewhat "selfish" to want to pressure-cook this still young developing super-talent into match races ..... every topic has her either having to prove herself again against the boys again in the Belmont, or running against Zenyatta.

So.........what *is* the rush? If I understand that, and somebody can explain this to me, I guess I'll be better able formulate a reasonable opinion.

the same reason we are pressure cooking quote unquote mine that bird into the belmont.


in fact I find that quite sexist that it's okay for him but not for her.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by toussaud

the same reason we are pressure cooking quote unquote mine that bird into the belmont.

in fact I find that quite sexist that it's okay for him but not for her.

Toussaud, you are completely discounting that Rachel ran the fastest route distance ever by a 3 year old in the Oaks beforehad, and then she was a front-runner in the Preakness on a tough pace.

By NOT comparing what a horse has done recently, and what KIND of race are coming off, is absurd, and there is no trainer who works with horses who would disagree.

As many have already mentioned here, MTB and closers don't run fast for an entire route.

(Interesting, when it suits people, they will bring that up. When it doesn't, they won't. When making Rachel into the best 3 year old horse, it seems important to bring up the amazing type of racing she has done...with her front-running style. When it's not, that information is no longer valid.

You can make it about whatever you want to. Sexism doesn't enter into the more scientific approach.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Toussaud, you are completely discounting that Rachel ran the fastest route distance ever by a 3 year old in the Oaks beforehad, and then she was a front-runner in the Preakness on a tough pace.

By NOT comparing what a horse has done recently, and what KIND of race are coming off, is absurd, and there is no trainer who works with horses who would disagree.

As many have already mentioned here, MTB and closers don't run fast for an entire route.

(Interesting, when it suits people, they will bring that up. When it doesn't, they won't. When making Rachel into the best 3 year old horse, it seems important to bring up the amazing type of racing she has done...with her front-running style. When it's not, that information is no longer valid.

You can make it about whatever you want to. Sexism doesn't enter into the more scientific approach.

Actually, when I read your original post, I thought the same thing Toussand did. And still do! It is sexist. If you can point me to previous posts of yours where you display the same passion for giving a horse much needed rest, I'll back off and give you your due.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

As many have already mentioned here, MTB and closers don't run fast for an entire route.

But they obviously run FASTER than the others for part of it!

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The head on would definitely solve this mystery...I would be pretty shocked if Calvin hit her anywhere near 17 times....

Looks like he cracked her 10 times at most.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The head on would definitely solve this mystery...I would be pretty shocked if Calvin hit her anywhere near 17 times....

I just watched the replay again on YouTube HQ, it looks like he hit her 4 times with his right hand at the top of the stretch, the switched to his left hand and hit her at least 11 more times. It's pretty clear. But does it really matter?? We all know she wasn't use to that. SA admitted that she was used up, that the race took a lot out of her. The ONLY one NOT to admit it was Calvin. His comment immediately following the race, I knew the other horse was comming and I TAPPED her on the shoulder and she went on with it. TOTAL BS. He was whipping her ass all the way down the stretch.

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, one guy says 15-17, then another guy says at most 10, another says at least 15....quite the spread....10-17....I suppose the video evidence isn't very clear if this kind of spread exists after three independent viewings.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by toussaud

the same reason we are pressure cooking quote unquote mine that bird into the belmont.

Pressure cooking? I was under the impression that MTB's connections want and look forward to racing in the Belmont, as they see the distance suiting the horse perfectly. They WANT this race.

[Pace Cap'n]

I got 13, and those weren't no love taps.