Following The Money - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

MANOWAR · 04-17-2003, 05:27 PM

I was at the track today, and decided to do something new, I decided to watch the toteboard.

I was watching this one horse's odds (I believe it was at Gulfstream), ML odds on this horse was 20-1, with 5 minutes to post the horse's odds were 5-1, and at post time the horse's odds were 10-1.

What I don't understand is what's going on here? I don't understand why the horse's odds shot up just before post time? Did the connections bet heavy on there horse or is there something else going on here? I'm guessing when a horse's odds shoot up just before post time it's a bad sign?

andicap · 04-17-2003, 05:50 PM

OK.......

So, HOW DID THE HORSE DO?????????????????

Mark Cramer wrote that this type of betting is a positive.
Lots of smart money coming in early and then the public money coming in after the post parade lets the horse float upward.
I don't know if he's right although I did cash a ticket on a maiden race once based on this pattern.
Two caveats
1. It has to be a "Chaos" race with either a lot of first time maidens or really bad horses.

2. He prefers to see the horse take money a couple of times throughout the betting. So it's 20-1 ML, opens at 5-1, stays there or floats up to 7-1 or 8-1, then gets bet back down to 5 or 6-1...Then in the last 8-10 minutes, floats up and up and up as thepublic money comes in.

Another factor. He waits a few minutes to see if the early money is real. Lot of horses will open 5-1 on a 20-1 ML, but two minutes later will be 10-1 or so and quickly float upward. The horse has to have a few minutes of staying power at its low odds.

Fatl@DMTC.Com · 04-17-2003, 06:37 PM

When I look for 'early' money, I look at the opening ticks, I remember a couple of weeks ago on the SA Turf, this import was making his first start here, ml of 20, opened at 5, I couldn't see anything on form, drifted up to 12 or 13 at the off and won easily.

MANOWAR · 04-17-2003, 07:15 PM

I made a mistake. The horse opened up at 20-1. If I remember correctly, the ML odds was lower than 20-1.

The horse I was speaking of didn't win. The horse ran up the track.

This happened an few times today. I was following 4 different tracks, and 1 horse finished 3rd, and the other 2 horses finished up the track.

Why did the connections bet heavy on there horse's if they didn't think their horse's had a chance of winnning their races? Did the trainers just go on what the jockeys told them after the horse's last races? Or, did the connections go on the horse's workouts prior to today's races? Or both?

Early · 04-17-2003, 08:23 PM

Quote:

[i]
Why did the connections bet heavy on there horse's if they didn't think their horse's had a chance of winnning their races? [/B]

I would assume that if the connections thought their horse had little chance of winning they wouldn't bet much. Then again, some horse owners are stupid.

Also, just because the connections think a horse has a great chance of winning, doesn't mean the horse is going to win, or even run well. Owners and trainers can be the worst handicappers.

Watch out for early money that gets cancelled. This seems to be happening more and more as people watch for the early money and then follow it.

MANOWAR · 04-17-2003, 09:02 PM

Should I assume if the odds skyrocket up after they plummet from the opening line that early money was cancelled?

Kentucky Bred · 04-17-2003, 09:53 PM

is that who is to say that it is really smart?

I used to know a guy on the backstretch who was connected to a man who took bets from trainers/owners/jockeys/exercise riders and grooms. All he took was "smart money". Guys were betting with him knowing about secret workouts before dawn, horse druggings, heavier than normal workout riders etc. I was told that he got wealthy taking bets from these people. ALL of them betting "smart money".

Yes, bet down horses win. Often there is a poor morning line on the race. But the real problem with "smart money" on any one horse is that the bettors are so focused on their horse, they can't really see the competition clearly. They are blinded by their own information without knowing the true information of the horses they must defeat.

Kentucky Bred

Early · 04-17-2003, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ManOWar
Should I assume if the odds skyrocket up after they plummet from the opening line that early money was cancelled?

You won't see it often, hopefully, but I saw a case recently. Longshot morning line opened up the favorite, with several thousand in the win pool. I noticed when someone commented on the pick 4 will pays. This horse was paying 3 out 4 (the only one in the field paying for 3 out of 4) but opened up the favorite? Come on, give me a break. Then someone else made the typical 'someone knows something' remark. The odds climbed very slowly, and then about 5 minutes to post, they skyrocketed up. Sure enough, when the money wagered in the win pool was displayed, it was obvious the early money had been cancelled. I might be wrong, but this couldn't be done at a SAM machine, only at a teller, so it was probably done by someone who knew the teller. Seems to me this kind of game is done to try to draw other money to the horse and then cancel and put real money on a different horse.

MANOWAR · 04-17-2003, 11:27 PM

Its sounds like the "following the money" angle is a hit or miss. Just like all the other angles out there. I thought this angle would be a little more consistant. I thought wrong.

ceejay · 04-18-2003, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by ManOWar
Should I assume if the odds skyrocket up after they plummet from the opening line that early money was cancelled?

I've seen that happen in small-pooled races more than once. I remember a ML quarter horse of 15-1 open up at 1:5 with $500 exactly bet on him. I watched as the action went up on him and then $$ came off of the horse, $100 at a time (the maximum canceled ticket size allowed at the track). The horse finished well up the track.

Early · 04-18-2003, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ManOWar
Its sounds like the "following the money" angle is a hit or miss. Just like all the other angles out there. I thought this angle would be a little more consistant. I thought wrong.

I think in small doses, at the right time, looking for early money is a good idea. Maiden first time starters or first time a horse tries turf are the two circumstances I would be intrigued by lots of early money.

alysheba88 · 04-18-2003, 01:49 PM

I dont think there is much if any correlation between the money moves. If someone is really in tune with the top betting trainers and know who bets early and who bets late (and most importantl y what % of their big plays WIN) I can see some possibilty for profit. But that's about it. So many of the "steam" moves are just the blind following the blind.

MANOWAR · 04-18-2003, 02:49 PM

Looking through some DRF back issues I've noticed that this angle works real well with 2nd and 3rd time starters. Looks like there's hope after all.

plainolebill · 04-19-2003, 01:50 AM

I write down the opening odds in my program and every five minutes or so until I make my bet(s). I make a line (so-so, but I'm getting better) and bet value by my line. By tracking the odds I can usually tell where the odds are going so that I don't wind up with an underlay at the last moment. Sometimes in a maiden race, if the odds open real low on a horse that doesn't figure and has a high m/l, I'll make a small exacta over my horse. I've hit some of these at good prices. I don't keep books so I don't know if it's profitable. Probably not.

MANOWAR · 04-19-2003, 08:18 AM

After tracking horse's odds for the past few days, it seems to be bigger pain in the ass then expected, especially when following 4 different tracks. Too much running back and forth. This is not how I handicap races, but due to financial hardship it has forced my hand to use some kind of spot play method. I'll be at the track today and I'll "follow the money" once again and see what happens. Hopefully the results will be positive.