Weight

[sq764]

At what point does weight become a factor to not bet a horse? Or to consider not betting a horse?

I only take consideration when its 4 lbs or more, but to be honest, I really ignore anything less than that.

It has always been a mystery to me how to play the weights into your handicapping..

[andicap]

I use weight in two instances, but the first one is much less important factor than it had been a few years ago.


1. Handicap stakes races. Some horses have their limit on what weight they can carry. But with racing secretaries not handing out weights over 125 or so, this is now a minor factor.

2. Trainer intent. No matter what handicappers think of weight, trainers believe it is important. So if a horse you like is getting a nice weight break today, it could be a sign the trainer will "go."
Just another factor to consider.


Other than that, I've never seen weight influence a race one way or another, although the Sheets players do believe that 5 lbs more or less will hurt or help a horse.

[karlskorner]

I think the real question is whether the "weight" in on the jockey or 'dead weight" in the saddle

[Figman]

How about the actual weight of the horse compared to his last few races. Lasix use can greatly affect weight drops. Less weight - less mass to move. Seem to remember that Minnesota track weighing horses before their races a few years ago. Maybe they had it right!

[sq764]

And does the extra weight factor diminish as you go from 5F to 6 or 7 or 1M or 1 3/8?

[karlskorner]

Ever watch a Jock's valet carry the saddle, pad & cloth to the paddock with no weight, he is swinging it on one arm, but put 10 lbs of lead in the saddle and he is lugging with both arms.

[Tom]

I always thought the term referred to the jockey <G>

[Fastracehorse]

<Trainer intent. No matter what handicappers think of weight, trainers believe it is important. So if a horse you like is getting a nice weight break today, it could be a sign the trainer will "go."
Just another factor to consider.

Sometimes there is trainer intent with just a 2 lb. weight break. I often look for the intent of a trainer entering his horse for a few k less.

Eg., I hit a nice longhshot at the Gulf this year where the trainer entered the horse for 25k in a ( 30-25 N2L ) event. The previous race the horse had been enterd for 30 in the same class.

[Fastracehorse]

I once read that a horse can lose up to 45 lbs in moisture do to the anti-diuretic effect of the drug.

No wonder so many routers improve dramatically on it.

fffastt

[WINMANWIN]

Weight is Comedy Central in my book. I love when the announcer
states a weight change of +1 LB, or 2 LB'S, 30 MINS TO POST
FOR the Races... The real comedy is, when they
weigh the jock, after a race WIN and the pinhead gets On/Off so fast its impossible for the Clerk of Scales to Register IT... I was laughing to myself Today watching the jock, stand on scale with saddle, and he was ON/OFF in an Eye BLINK..Clerk had his Sheet Out and followed procedure though......:o

[kenwoodall]

Weight limit depends on the individual horse.

[thoroughbred]

sq764

Here is a table that shows the effect of weight carried by a horse.

TIME CHANGE PER ONE POUND WEIGHT CHANGE *

RACE DISTANCE (furlongs) TIME CHANGE (ticks **)
5 0.187
5.5 0.231
6 0.280
6.5 0.336
7 0.398
7.5 0.467
8 0.543
8.5 0.627
9 0.719
10 0.930
12 1.479
15 2.716
16 3.276

* Using 116 pounds as reference
** One tick is 0.2 seconds

With other factors not changing, the table shows the finish time change that can be expected when comparing a previous race with, say, todays race, due to a change in the weight carried.

The derivation of the table is given in my "Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing" To the extent possible, I have been able to verify the results at some race distaces by means of published trainer opinion, and in Ainsley's (Encyclopedia of Thoroughbred Handicapping.)

NOTE: I HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO HAVE THE COLUMNS IN THE TABLE BE SEPARATED FOR EASY READING HERE. jUST KNOW THAT THE FIRST NUMBERS ARE RACE DISTANCE, AND THE NUMBERS WHICH FOLLOW ARE THE TICKS AT THE DISTANCE.

[Pace Cap'n]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by thoroughbred
[B]sq764

* Using 116 pounds as reference
** One tick is 0.2 seconds

__________________________________________________ _

Would it be correct to calculate that over one mile, a horses time would be reduced by 1.086 seconds?

Steve

[karlskorner]

If the 2 lbs. "overweight" is announced for the Jockey, makes little difference, however, if the "conditions" call for 121 lbs and the Jockey weighs in at 110 lbs, thats 11 lbs of "dead weight" across the horses back. The Jockey shifts his weight over the horses withers and can be carried easily.

[Show Me the Wire]

Weight affects balance of the racehorse. Balance is important to the horse’s rhythm (timing) and by influencing rhythm you are directly affecting the horse’s ability to carry its speed over a distance of ground. Karl is correct a horse carries weight more efficiently over its withers and thus the impact on its rhythm is lessened.

Compare the balance point of the the more sucessfull jocks to less sucessfull jocks and you may see the subtle difference in postioning over the horses withers.

Cordially,
Show Me the Wire