Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Library


View Poll Results: Which type of manuscript do you prefer?
1. All statistics 4 5.88%
2. All prose 4 5.88%
3. A mixture of statistics and prose 60 88.24%
Voters: 68. This poll is closed

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-25-2009, 12:01 PM   #1
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,915
New Product Poll: Tables or Prose

As I begin work on the first manuscript, I have a question.

1. "Do you prefer a work with nothing but statistical tables such as thoese produced by Michael Nunamaker?"

Or

2. "Do you prefer pure prosematerial such as written by Mark Cramer or James Quinn?"

Or

3. "Do you prefer a mixture of tables and prose as in Winning at the Races and the original Percentages & Probabilities?"
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-25-2009, 12:04 PM   #2
DeanT
Registered User
 
DeanT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
Dave,

I loved Quirin's book. He gave me an "angle" or a feature he believed, or was believed to be good, then showed historical fact with IV's and ROI's. I always enjoyed that book and to this day it is my favorite.

JMO. Good luck and really looking forward to seeing what you come up with.
DeanT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-25-2009, 12:09 PM   #3
GaryG
Unreconstructed
 
GaryG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,646
Dave: Prose, provided you can write as well as Mark Cramer.....
__________________
Deo Vindice
GaryG is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-25-2009, 12:46 PM   #4
Fingal
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 955
Prose & tables. It's like when you were in High School when you took a test & the Teacher said " show your work."

It's not just the final destination, it's the journey. I prefer both the right brain aspect of concepts, then the left side of hard facts.
Fingal is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-25-2009, 02:07 PM   #5
Overlay
 
Overlay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
Both Quirin's and Nunamaker's titles were excellent references. I favor Nunamaker's pure statistics approach, however, unless prose is necessary to explain any new or complicated concepts (such as Quirin did with his speed points or speed figures), so that readers know how to calculate and apply them; or to clarify the source of data and explain briefly which races in a horse's record a statistic represents, or which data source a statistic is drawn from (as Nunamaker did in the brief forward to Modern Impact Values).

I would especially favor statistics if inclusion of any prose would somehow limit or cut into the comprehensiveness or depth of the statistics presented. (For example, Nunamaker presented a more thorough breakdown of his statistics than Quirin did, by age, running surface, sex, distance, and maidens vs. previous winners, which, to me, made his data more useful.) Also, Quirin's findings were based on much smaller sample sizes (even though he applied statistical tests to project whether particular positive or negative findings constituted an enduring trend, rather than just a random fluctuation). I preferred Nuamaker's greater size and scope (even though I imagine it required much more number-crunching).

Finally, Nunamaker indicated that he somehow weighted his impact values to reflect the field size in which each horse ran. I recalculated all his impact values, doing them Quirin's way (by dividing percentage of winners in the total sample by percentage of all horses in the sample, irrespective of individual race field sizes), and I don't recall that there was too big a difference in the results. To me, Quirin's method is simpler and adequate.

Just one player's opinion (and apparently literally so, judging from the poll responses to this point).

Last edited by Overlay; 01-25-2009 at 02:16 PM.
Overlay is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-25-2009, 04:34 PM   #6
kenwoodallpromos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 9,569
Stats

I prefer just the stats as more readabler, but a combination allows room for explaination so as to be adaptable.
I know people who can only learn something by stats; by pictures; by hearing it; by by trial and error. point is, a mixture suits more reads (buyers), a more adaptable to peoples' capping style.
kenwoodallpromos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2009, 10:11 AM   #7
Houndog
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Hammond, IN
Posts: 178
Prose & Stats

Dave, I have always liked what Jim Mazur has done with his trainer stats. He has the hard stats and commentaries on the more significant trainers. I know we are not talking about trainers here so that style may not lend itself to your work.

Look forward to any product you put out especially an updated Fred Davis manuscript.
Houndog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2009, 10:51 AM   #8
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,915
Dog,

That is precisely what I have done, although I am finding that the organizing and formatting of the data is huge.

I think you guys are really going to like this when it is finished.


Dave
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2009, 12:43 PM   #9
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
Well, if it comes anything like your Brainwaves stuff, I am chomping at the bit!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.