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Negative Claims
A handicapper for whom I've always had a lot of respect (and who, unfortunately, is no longer with us) often spoke/wrote of "negative claims". I've always construed that term to mean a horse claimed by a less talented and, usually, poor trainer from a more talented and, usually, good or very good trainer. (I'm speaking about the broad picture, not where one trainer is able to "figure out" a horse and get him to run well and no other trainer can find the weird or unusual "key" to making him fly rather than plod.)
I recently dusted off some notes and tried to apply that concept to a particular trainer handicapping concept he often touted only to be very surprised that in almost a year of data there were exactly zero instances where the negative claims were a consideration when I used the definition above. In the context of the handicapping concept, he felt it was important to identify negative claims and not wager those.
I've used HTR trainer ratings (which are pretty solid) to identify the relative competence of the trainers and have used a variety of benchmarks (differences in the ratings - sometimes extreme differences) so I'm left to conclude that either my notes are wrong or to wonder if anyone knows of other viable definitions of "negative claims".
Does anyone have any thoughts on what else this term can mean that can be applied fairly broadly?
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