Why can't horse racing thrive today?

[Track Phantom]

There have been lots of talk about what appeal horse racing has or could have to the mainstream public. Many give low marks to the industry in attracting more non horseplayers to this game.

In my opinion, there is one reason alone that keeps non horseplayers from crossing over: You cannot win at the game!

The game is so heavily burdened by takeout and other "hidden" costs (ie, pay for information (pp's), pay to play, pay to get in, pay for race replays, on and on), that it could be argued that it is mathematically impossible to come out ahead save for hitting a big score (pick 6 or other).

There will be many horseplayers quick to refute the "can't win" scenario but they have their own agenda for doing so. They cannot continue to play with an agreement that the game can't be beat.

My feeling is until the takeout is reduced to a competitive level (10%) and the cost to gather information is seriously dropped, the game will have to live with the smallish, core group of players that currently fund it.

[boomman]

Originally Posted by Valento

There have been lots of talk about what appeal horse racing has or could have to the mainstream public. Many give low marks to the industry in attracting more non horseplayers to this game.

In my opinion, there is one reason alone that keeps non horseplayers from crossing over: You cannot win at the game!

The game is so heavily burdened by takeout and other "hidden" costs (ie, pay for information (pp's), pay to play, pay to get in, pay for race replays, on and on), that it could be argued that it is mathematically impossible to come out ahead save for hitting a big score (pick 6 or other).

There will be many horseplayers quick to refute the "can't win" scenario but they have their own agenda for doing so. They cannot continue to play with an agreement that the game can't be beat.

My feeling is until the takeout is reduced to a competitive level (10%) and the cost to gather information is seriously dropped, the game will have to live with the smallish, core group of players that currently fund it.

Valento: I agree with you on several points and even partially titled one of my books that only 2% of all folks actually win at our "game". (In fact many argue that the number is considerably lower than that, and it very well could be)...We have an opportunity to lower takeout on our own and that's via cash reward companies such as PTC. HANA has just received my donation, and I encourage everyone on this board to rally around their cause to overcome the horrible fracturing of signals by putting pressure on the tracks and horsemen groups to come together and fix this ridiculous situation. An entity denying access to it's customers??? We have become a laughing stock and can NEVER expect to draw new customers under the current business climate!

Boomer

[Robert Fischer]

mass media

[Imriledup]

Great post Valento, everything you said is true.

For the very few who actually win, there are thousands who do not.

The pricing model is extremely uncompetitive in 2008. The model assumes horseplayers are idiots who don't know any better. That might have worked many years ago when people had no other choices, but now there are too many other options. Until the higher ups in this game realize horseplayers are not idiots, they will still continue to struggle along while doing nothing to create a few generation of bettors.

I believe that in order to create new fans, you need the current fans (see customers) to totally believe in this game. The current customer has to be able to tell a non customer "hey, racing is a great game, its fun, exciting, a great entertainment option and you have a reasonable shot to win big" As of 2008, not one current fan is telling a non fan that this is the case.

An extremely high percentage of current fans were introduced to this game by someone who was already established. Same thing for the newbies, they are going to have to be brought into the game by a current customer/fan and that just isn't going to happen in the real world.

[Tom]

Racing does not know who it's customers are.
You can't win in a casino either, but they understand he word customer.

[lamboguy]

if you can win in a casino, you will get thrown out. i got bounced out of 17 different casino's in vegas betting house quinella's.

before that i got bounced from horse books in vegas, churhill downs, leroy's and the castaways for betting maiden first time starter races that they were booking before they took on parimutual.

i have a friend that had a $200 winning ticket on a horse race that the oriental palace refused to pay. it took him 5 months before the nevada gaming commision made the hotel pay.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Valento

There have been lots of talk about what appeal horse racing has or could have to the mainstream public. Many give low marks to the industry in attracting more non horseplayers to this game.

In my opinion, there is one reason alone that keeps non horseplayers from crossing over: You cannot win at the game!

The game is so heavily burdened by takeout and other "hidden" costs (ie, pay for information (pp's), pay to play, pay to get in, pay for race replays, on and on), that it could be argued that it is mathematically impossible to come out ahead save for hitting a big score (pick 6 or other).

There will be many horseplayers quick to refute the "can't win" scenario but they have their own agenda for doing so. They cannot continue to play with an agreement that the game can't be beat.

My feeling is until the takeout is reduced to a competitive level (10%) and the cost to gather information is seriously dropped, the game will have to live with the smallish, core group of players that currently fund it.

I think you are defeated before you walk in the door.You mention takeout and other costs right after you declare you cannot win the game.While I agree the hospitableness by tracks could be better,it sounds like the moan of a fresh loser!"I cannot win,here are the postemortem rationalizations....".

I think the appeal of the game speaks for itself unless you are completely dislocated from it.You're watching a pretty badass spectacle every 20 minutes and you can look at the participants before it happens.Don't sound like fun???Well looking at some ugly mugs at a card table and listening to them mouth off isn't much better either.And that is what most casinos are like.And if you are betting offtrack,it's within you own comfort zone.And the odds ARE better.There are no fixed odds and no fixed courses of action.YOU decide the acceptable odds before you bet.That in itself makes the game beatable.While good odds fall into a certain percentage of expectancy based on a fairly frequent amount of bets,the ROI is far offset than what it is for casino games.

On this website of technological Giants that bet way more significant sums than I do and have made the game far more easily interpretable than I have through that.I can say that I beat the game regularly.Not constantly,but often enough.And all I pay for are Racing Forms from my guy in the neighborhood.I get free race info from the DRF online,make my track profiles and race notes,transcribe them to the form,and use the information that experience and a library card has taught me.Most of the work til the last 2 weeks or so I have done on self designed spread sheets with a pen or pencil and calculator in hand.

Now.If myself.Who most would consider a hick living in a cave with my measly sums of bets and handwritten documents can beat this game!!!Surely you can do better,unless as with the rest of the world you want it handed to you on a silver platter!!!

I don't know,maybe it really is something that gets in your blood or it doesn't.I just love the game.

Here.I just cut this page from a notebook.You translate my $20.00 or thereabouts bets into your $200 or $2000 bets,but for my poverty stricken butt I'm proud of my last month's winnings;

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well I wasn't able to post the attachment because they said it was too large which I can't imagine since it came out of a standard 70 page notebook.Can anybody tell me how to scan and post something on here???I usually don't have any trouble if I email it to somebody.What's up??

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

Great post Valento, everything you said is true.

For the very few who actually win, there are thousands who do not.

The pricing model is extremely uncompetitive in 2008. The model assumes horseplayers are idiots who don't know any better. That might have worked many years ago when people had no other choices, but now there are too many other options. Until the higher ups in this game realize horseplayers are not idiots, they will still continue to struggle along while doing nothing to create a few generation of bettors.

I believe that in order to create new fans, you need the current fans (see customers) to totally believe in this game. The current customer has to be able to tell a non customer "hey, racing is a great game, its fun, exciting, a great entertainment option and you have a reasonable shot to win big" As of 2008, not one current fan is telling a non fan that this is the case.

An extremely high percentage of current fans were introduced to this game by someone who was already established. Same thing for the newbies, they are going to have to be brought into the game by a current customer/fan and that just isn't going to happen in the real world.

Agree with your response. The current horseplayers supporting this game are suspect of it on many levels. Most would not seriously and honestly advocate for others to "dive in". That's a big problem.

[ddog]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...13U&refer=home

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I think you are defeated before you walk in the door.You mention takeout and other costs right after you declare you cannot win the game.While I agree the hospitableness by tracks could be better,it sounds like the moan of a fresh loser!"I cannot win,here are the postemortem rationalizations....".

I think the appeal of the game speaks for itself unless you are completely dislocated from it.You're watching a pretty badass spectacle every 20 minutes and you can look at the participants before it happens.Don't sound like fun???Well looking at some ugly mugs at a card table and listening to them mouth off isn't much better either.And that is what most casinos are like.And if you are betting offtrack,it's within you own comfort zone.And the odds ARE better.There are no fixed odds and no fixed courses of action.YOU decide the acceptable odds before you bet.That in itself makes the game beatable.While good odds fall into a certain percentage of expectancy based on a fairly frequent amount of bets,the ROI is far offset than what it is for casino games.

On this website of technological Giants that bet way more significant sums than I do and have made the game far more easily interpretable than I have through that.I can say that I beat the game regularly.Not constantly,but often enough.And all I pay for are Racing Forms from my guy in the neighborhood.I get free race info from the DRF online,make my track profiles and race notes,transcribe them to the form,and use the information that experience and a library card has taught me.Most of the work til the last 2 weeks or so I have done on self designed spread sheets with a pen or pencil and calculator in hand.

Now.If myself.Who most would consider a hick living in a cave with my measly sums of bets and handwritten documents can beat this game!!!Surely you can do better,unless as with the rest of the world you want it handed to you on a silver platter!!!

I don't know,maybe it really is something that gets in your blood or it doesn't.I just love the game.

Here.I just cut this page from a notebook.You translate my $20.00 or thereabouts bets into your $200 or $2000 bets,but for my poverty stricken butt I'm proud of my last month's winnings;

Herein lies the issue. You've spent many minutes and words trying to convince us how you beat the game regularly. Imagine a non horseplayer realizing they have to transibe, cut and paste from a notebook, create self designed spreadsheets, etc in order to be able to win. Doesn't sound too appealing, especially to those of us that have a full time job and other responsibilities.

I love horse racing and love the intellectual challenge. However, my brain power, efforts, time and knowledge gets me a moderate edge over many players which is easily eliminated by the high takeout and rampant cheating.

Even though I believe the game is virtually impossible to beat in the current parameters, I wouldn't say it isn't a appealing. A lot is to be said for entertainment money and I see clear entertainment value. However, as far as a pure gambling endeavor, it is stacked tremendously against the players. If you, or anyone else, can make a consistent and sustained profit in this environment, you're better than 99.5% and I applaud you and your notebook transcibes.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I think you are defeated before you walk in the door.You mention takeout and other costs right after you declare you cannot win the game.While I agree the hospitableness by tracks could be better,it sounds like the moan of a fresh loser!"I cannot win,here are the postemortem rationalizations....".

I think the appeal of the game speaks for itself unless you are completely dislocated from it.You're watching a pretty badass spectacle every 20 minutes and you can look at the participants before it happens.Don't sound like fun???Well looking at some ugly mugs at a card table and listening to them mouth off isn't much better either.And that is what most casinos are like.And if you are betting offtrack,it's within you own comfort zone.And the odds ARE better.There are no fixed odds and no fixed courses of action.YOU decide the acceptable odds before you bet.That in itself makes the game beatable.While good odds fall into a certain percentage of expectancy based on a fairly frequent amount of bets,the ROI is far offset than what it is for casino games.

On this website of technological Giants that bet way more significant sums than I do and have made the game far more easily interpretable than I have through that.I can say that I beat the game regularly.Not constantly,but often enough.And all I pay for are Racing Forms from my guy in the neighborhood.I get free race info from the DRF online,make my track profiles and race notes,transcribe them to the form,and use the information that experience and a library card has taught me.Most of the work til the last 2 weeks or so I have done on self designed spread sheets with a pen or pencil and calculator in hand.

Now.If myself.Who most would consider a hick living in a cave with my measly sums of bets and handwritten documents can beat this game!!!Surely you can do better,unless as with the rest of the world you want it handed to you on a silver platter!!!

I don't know,maybe it really is something that gets in your blood or it doesn't.I just love the game.

Here.I just cut this page from a notebook.You translate my $20.00 or thereabouts bets into your $200 or $2000 bets,but for my poverty stricken butt I'm proud of my last month's winnings
;

Great Post Cincy....Who you like tomorrow???

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Valento

Herein lies the issue. You've spent many minutes and words trying to convince us how you beat the game regularly. Imagine a non horseplayer realizing they have to transibe, cut and paste from a notebook, create self designed spreadsheets, etc in order to be able to win. Doesn't sound too appealing, especially to those of us that have a full time job and other responsibilities.

I love horse racing and love the intellectual challenge. However, my brain power, efforts, time and knowledge gets me a moderate edge over many players which is easily eliminated by the high takeout and rampant cheating.

Even though I believe the game is virtually impossible to beat in the current parameters, I wouldn't say it isn't a appealing. A lot is to be said for entertainment money and I see clear entertainment value. However, as far as a pure gambling endeavor, it is stacked tremendously against the players. If you, or anyone else, can make a consistent and sustained profit in this environment, you're better than 99.5% and I applaud you and your notebook transcibes.

Herein lies the issue.You've spent many minutes and many words trying to convince people that the game,while out of reach for you,is out of reach for everyone on the face of the planet.The question is.....What the hell do you want??????

Obviously it is to do nothing and profit.What game are you comparing to,to have an accurate comparison???

And you sure as hell underestimate this gambling generation.I know a ton of kids willing to learn the ins and outs of cards,which takes way more money to beat the less odds than horseracing.They ARE converting because it is a beatable game with less on the line to make just as much.I work and have a fulltime job and I am about to say F-that to it because it isn't worth the effort that racing is,without being taxing to the soul!

The game itself needs to be more respective to who makes it.But please man,you are the worst advocate of it;you are a loser,self admitted, and this is what your post is about.This is not what we strive for here....

I might not be qualified to make that statement.But I love the game.I love this board.And I win.So I feel I'm just advancing a winning philosophy that isn't just hypothesis...

[Cangamble]

Cincy, a few questions.
First, do you receive rebates? If not, why not?
Secondly, do you keep records of your play, and if you do, how much have you won or lost each year by year for the last five years?

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

Great post Valento, everything you said is true.

For the very few who actually win, there are thousands who do not.

The pricing model is extremely uncompetitive in 2008. The model assumes horseplayers are idiots who don't know any better. That might have worked many years ago when people had no other choices, but now there are too many other options. Until the higher ups in this game realize horseplayers are not idiots, they will still continue to struggle along while doing nothing to create a few generation of bettors.

I believe that in order to create new fans, you need the current fans (see customers) to totally believe in this game. The current customer has to be able to tell a non customer "hey, racing is a great game, its fun, exciting, a great entertainment option and you have a reasonable shot to win big" As of 2008, not one current fan is telling a non fan that this is the case.

An extremely high percentage of current fans were introduced to this game by someone who was already established. Same thing for the newbies, they are going to have to be brought into the game by a current customer/fan and that just isn't going to happen in the real world.

The prospective fan sees that the perspective of the handicapper provides few winners. And, the handicapper makes this obvious everytime that he pronounces "you can't beat the races".

At least he has managed to teach the prospective fan that you can't win with a handicapping perspective, so the prospect will stay outside until he is offered a working perspective that is more in line with the realities of horse racing.

The game has passed conventional handicapping by, the prospective fan needs a method from which he/she can learn something about horseracing. They can see that 100 years of conventional handicapping has taught little to those that have been doing most of it.

jdl