Profiling vs 'capping the entire field: the fundamental question

[Bill Cullen]

For me, profiling vs 'capping the entire field is the funandamental, even metaphsyical if you will, question for the reflective handicapper.

I'm a profiler: I want to "spot" (discover) a horse with a profile of attributes that could, in theory, if you could interrogate the trainer, be matched one-for-one with the trainer's very specific conscious moves that he has employed for his horse leading up to that race for that day. I should mention that I strongly suspect a good "proflier" can pick up intentions that even the trainer himself or herself was not aware of. Even better is when the crowd doesn't intuitively pick up on the intentions either. I call that the double-blind alley of good fortune.

Capper: Likes to inventory, makes sure he hasn't left anything out, believes in a Newtonian model of the universe: give me the starting conditions and i can predict the outcome. Kneels before mathematics and casts aspersions at poetry.

I'm just having some fun here (and speculating): I've been a capper AND a profiler. If I had to guess why I'm currently a profiler, it's because I'm lazy.

What sayeth ye?

Best,

Bill C

[nobeyerspls]

How does profiling work? Do you look at the pp's for all the horses before locating the profile horse? Isn't that handicapping? What if a race produces more than one profile horse?
Let's use Woodbine's 5th race today as an example. It's a MSW 7f on the turf with fourteen entered, thus the potential for a decent payout. The consensus choice, #11 Advisable, fits the definition of a profile horse. Malcolm Pierce is a top turf trainer who is very good with horses off a layoff. You would have to look at ten other horses before finding this one so were any of them "profile" horses. Look at the trainer stats for the #4 Windy Warning. Very strong first turf and this gal is out of a Storm Bird mare. Looks like value at 15-1.
Then, do you stop at the #11? The #12 Stormy Illusion is bred for turf top and bottom for a trainer with solid first turf and first lasix stats. Yet another one playable at 15-1. If all three of these are profile horses, what do you do? Box them in exactas and trifectas? Play the longest one across the board? If so you might have overlooked one that doesn't fit as a profile horse. The #6 Distant Kain (20-1) gets blinkers on off a short rest and Lomond, the dam's sire, is a solid turf sprint influence.
So it looks like profiling is more work than handicapping. Then too, if they're off the turf at Woodbine, none of this applies.

[misscashalot]

I profile...not because Im lazy or because its easier, but by doing it that way I keep in touch with the current trend which does change as the competition and track bias changes. I adjust accordingly. It's subtle and it works for me. To each his own and by his own strength.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by misscashalot

I profile...not because Im lazy or because its easier, but by doing it that way I keep in touch with the current trend which does change as the competition and track bias changes. I adjust accordingly. It's subtle and it works for me. To each his own and by his own strength.

Insightful answer!

Thanks,

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

I tend to focus on what a specific trainer has done with a specific horse, not the trainer's general stats with horses.

At the end, yes, profiling and 'capping are really two sides of the same coin

Thanks,

Bill

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

At the end, yes, profiling and 'capping are really two sides of the same coin

Thanks,ill

A good 'capper by your definition would surely cover all bases including any noteable profile possibilities as a subset of his/her overall approach to each race.

[Bill Cullen]

Yes.

Well said.

Thanks,

Bill C

[cnollfan]

I'm not sure if this is on-topic or not.

I have three basic approaches.

1) Horses on my watch list. When I am alerted to them via e-mail, I will look at the race they are in, and if my horse looks like it has a shot, I'll also look at the surrounding races for double/pick 3/pick 4 possibilities.

2) Track I am following closely, e.g. Oaklawn. I will handicap all of these races comprehensively.

3) Big day of simulcasting on the weekend. I'll skim through the Form for a dozen tracks, looking for things that catch my eye. I'll adjust what I am looking for based on race conditions. e.g. Maiden Claiming race, look for MSW dropdown. Maiden Special race, look for $1,000,000+ horse to bet against. Entry-level route allowance, look for MSW route winner last time. Turf race,
look for front-runner on my turf speed list. Big-field wide-open claimer, mark for further study. etc.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by cnollfan

3) Big day of simulcasting on the weekend. I'll skim through the Form for a dozen tracks, looking for things that catch my eye. Big-field wide-open claimer, mark for further study. etc.

I like your number #3 in particular.

Good stuff!

Thanks,

Bill C