Place Betting - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

douglasw32 · 06-15-2008, 09:38 AM

Does anyone do this on a regular basis, if not why, if so why?

I am trying to explain to my wife why this just does not make any sense.

Even though the picks may place more than they win.

Spendabuck85 · 06-15-2008, 10:01 AM

I bet win only. I've studied my results several times over the years and always get back to the same answer. If I had split my win bet equally between win and place I would cash more tickets (because of the 2nd place finishes) but the dollars returned in total to me would be less than betting win only.

Also, Steve Christ addresses "The Place and Show Fallacy" in his Exotic Betting book.

Overlay · 06-15-2008, 10:06 AM

The gain in frequency of wagers won by betting to place is more than offset by the smaller size of the average place payoff compared to the average win payoff, which makes it necessary to cash an unsustainably high percentage of bets in order to come out ahead. Plus, win betting lets you know up front how much you'll get back, and the size of the payoff isn't dependent upon or affected by how any other horse runs. As Tom Ainslie said, anyone with the skill and discipline needed to consistently show a profit betting to place can realize a significantly greater return by betting exclusively to win.

Robert Fischer · 06-15-2008, 10:07 AM

It's hard for me to find value in the place pool.

Say you like a 2-1 shot(pays 6 bucks). You give him a 40% chance of winning. Even if he pays $3.50 to place, you would need to have estimated his place chances at 69% just to get the same value.
pay.. % ......value
6..... 0.4..... 1.2
3.5.. 0.69 ... 1.2

It is generally hard for me personally to confidently assign 30% more to a horse for place position.
There are times when the place market is "out-of-wack" so it always pays to check the place pools for inneficient markets, especially popular horses in tripleCrown or BC races.

ezrabrooks · 06-15-2008, 10:40 AM

I dive into the Place Pool (while still agreeing with the previous posts), but I do so to (1) increase my handle on spot plays and (2) save myself the misery of runs of total losers.. My Place ROI usually runs less than the Win; however, the last 100 race cycle, the Place bet out performed my Win bets, which was a first.

Ez

thelyingthief · 06-15-2008, 11:23 AM

like others who have responded here, i have won more money betting win;

however, i bet two horses per race to place last year at woodbine, and had a stellar percentage cash (> 8 of 10) at 12% ROI. if i could have made larger bets (place and show pools are small at woodbine, and impactable by wager size), i would have concentrated on this bet exclusively.

it's all about velocity. if you can wager larger sums of money with more security at place price payouts then it is stupid not to do so. the money you lose in ROI is made up for in wager size and hit rate.

of course, if your balls are small, you'll make wagers into the safer pools of similar size to your win bets, which obviates your strike rate.

tlt

Tom · 06-15-2008, 11:35 AM

Let your records tell you if place betting is a good idea. Anything else is opinion
.
My records tell me at 9-2 or over, 1 unit win and three units place is better than just betting to win. When those records me it isn't anymore, then I'll stop. It has nothing at all to do with balls, only brains.

kyle2227 · 06-15-2008, 02:41 PM

Actually when there is an entry and you think theres a good chance they will run one two place is a great bet because if they do run one two you get the entire place pool paid out to your horses

Perfect example race 4 of belmont today he paid more to place then he did to win.

classhandicapper · 06-15-2008, 02:44 PM

It typically makes no sense unless you are playing a short priced horse. Short priced horses tend to get underbet in the place pools (and vice versa). I am profitable betting to place, though it is much tougher now that they use net pool pricing and various track takes (like NYRA) have risen. Plus most rebates have been lowered.

Robert Fischer · 06-15-2008, 06:10 PM

weird place bet example today.
Belmont race 2.

4 horses , 2 of them worth considering. No show wagering

The 5 is being entered in midseason form as FTS
Gelded,Juiced,JohnnyV,Early money , late money.
He goes off at 6-5 to win($4.50) , but pays 3.00 to place for beating two stiffs in a 4 horse race.

winner pays 2.70place, but look for him back with first time lasix for Dutrow (Dagnabit)

06-15-2008, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It typically makes no sense unless you are playing a short priced horse. Short priced horses tend to get underbet in the place pools (and vice versa). I am profitable betting to place, though it is much tougher now that they use net pool pricing and various track takes (like NYRA) have risen. Plus most rebates have been lowered.

Agree with that.
Often the place dividend on short price horses is not much less than the win dividend as people tend not to bother with the place bet on such horses and look for a longer one to win or place.

ManeMediaMogul · 06-15-2008, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

Let your records tell you if place betting is a good idea. Anything else is opinion
.
My records tell me at 9-2 or over, 1 unit win and three units place is better than just betting to win. When those records me it isn't anymore, then I'll stop. It has nothing at all to do with balls, only brains.

I use one unit to win and two units to place.

Most of the horses I bet are in the 5-1 to 8-1 range and run on the turf. If they encounter tough racing luck but finish second, I can still make a profit on the wager.

I personally love to win even when I lose.

This type of wagering plan virtually eliminates seconditis and the mental woes that accompany the affliction.

whyhorseofcourse · 06-15-2008, 11:06 PM

I have my highest ROI on place betting.
But I only spot place bet.

Jake · 06-16-2008, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

Let your records tell you if place betting is a good idea. Anything else is opinion
.
My records tell me at 9-2 or over, 1 unit win and three units place is better than just betting to win. When those records me it isn't anymore, then I'll stop. It has nothing at all to do with balls, only brains.

I think this is the definitive answer. If your selection method shows a strong place percentage, you can certainly shift your total betting with extra weight toward the place hole. Tom's right: it's always brains, not balls. But the last reference to "spot" place betting is also a critical key. If the horse is an underlay in the place hole--either projected minimum place price or percentage of place monies--then look to exploit that play. Otherwise, either win bet or looks at exacta as place wager against your top 4 other key contenders. It's always about relative probabilities to payoffs.

Having written all of this, several years ago I finished a long datamining project against 7 full years of racing data, and as a general proposition win betting will almost always return a higher ROI than place betting and place betting is always more positive than show betting. However, spot place betting looking at relative pool size can be exploited, it's just not an easy approach.

KMS · 06-16-2008, 12:11 AM

I'm tempted whenever I have one of those days when all my picks run second, or when I have that 12-1 shot that just misses but pays $10.60 to place. In the long run, I think it's a net loser, but it may have some psychological value in keeping you from tearing your hair out. Lately my horses seem to either win or run out of the money completely, so it's a moot point.