Andy Beyer drf article - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jasperson · 06-12-2008, 10:33 PM

I just finished reading an article by Andy Beyers in the drf. In it he did criticized the ride of Kent Desmeaux in the Belmont. To his credit he didn't say that his (Kent's) performance was the result of BB'S poor performance. Personally I am sick and tired of people with so called knowledge of horses racing criticizing a jockeys performance with out any knowledge of what happens sometimes in racing. First and foremost the horse doesn't tell you before hand what he is going to do in the race. In Kent's defenses BB had settled in the derby and preakness and didn't try to ram to the lead. If BB had told Kent prior to the race that he was rank and wanted to be on the lead Kent probably would have went to the lead him. To illustrate this point I was driving my trotter that I bought as a weanling, broke and trained her and drove her in a lot of her races. I drew the 5 hole with her in a field that I knew she could beat to the lead. I tried for the lead and around the first turn I was lapped on a horse for last place. I pulled her back to last and their she grasp the bit and wanted to go so I let her. We finished 3rd and since it was a 2 heat race she went to the front and won the next heat. Horses have a mind of their own and they don't always communicate this to the driver or jockey. This is just one race to illustrate the horse doesn't always tell the jockey or driver his intentions. Every jockey and driver will tell you the same thing if they know what his horse or somebody else's horse is going to do they would have change they ride or drive. I could cite many more examples form my own experiences or as told to me by other drivers, but this is enough. Am I guilty of the same judgement and the answer is yes. I still try to give the jockey and driver the benefit of the doubt.

As far is the race goes I don't think BB was ready for 1 ½ mile race. Dutrow was between a rock and a hard place. Should he give BB longer and tougher works between the Preakness and the Belmont and risk aggravating his quarter crack or work him lightly and risk not have him ready for that distance. I am not going to criticize his decisions because that is what he is getting paid to do and he knows more about the horse than any of us. My main point is that things look a lot difference to you when you are in the heat of the action. Just ask any jockey or driver what they would have done different knowing what they know after the race and they will tell sometimes a lot.

PaceAdvantage · 06-13-2008, 12:27 PM

So, part of your reasoning is that in the three weeks between the Preakness and Belmont, Big Brown lost at least 10-15 lengths to this weak field of runners, simply because he wasn't trained correctly?

I can't buy that for a second. A horse does not loose that much ability in only three weeks.

Moyers Pond · 06-13-2008, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So, part of your reasoning is that in the three weeks between the Preakness and Belmont, Big Brown lost at least 10-15 lengths to this weak field of runners, simply because he wasn't trained correctly?

I can't buy that for a second. A horse does not loose that much ability in only three weeks.

Dutrow deserved much more blame than Kent. Dutrow was responsible for having the horse ready to run a 12f race and he was a complete failure. He was empty and that is a trainers problem, not a jockeys.

Lose The Juice · 06-13-2008, 01:10 PM

Come on... let's be fair now; had the race been at 7f, Big Brown would have been right in the running.

PaceAdvantage · 06-13-2008, 01:31 PM

I asked a serious question. I would appreciate a serious response.

I'll ask again....Did Big Brown lose at least 10-15 lengths to this WEAK Belmont Stakes field of runners, simply because he wasn't trained correctly?

Dave Schwartz · 06-13-2008, 02:59 PM

PA,

Understanding why a horse ran so badly when he had previously run so well is not exactly my speciality. If this was a $16k claimer we'd simply say, "He didn't run, oh well." But it wasn't. It was a BIG race - likely the biggest of all three involved (horse, rider, trainer).

Was the ride poor? Sure it was.

Was the horse off form? Apparently, yes.

Was the trainer responsible for that? Of course, who else would it be.

Put those three together and you've got your 10-15 lengths.

Perhaps the funniest part is that of the three, one has been a gentleman (rider) but blamed the horse and one has been a jerk (the trainer) and blamed the rider.

The only one who has had nothing to say is the horse.

Dave

Greyfox · 06-13-2008, 03:22 PM

In the 2004 Athens Olympics, the overwhelming odds on favorite to win the ladies marathon was Paula Radcliffe. http://www.paularadcliffe.com/

England's greatest female runner was considered to be a lock. She had trained exceedingly well and was never in better shape. With her country's hopes on the line she "hit the wall" and failed to finish. The Athens heat did her in.

It was her biggest disappointment ever. She subsequently went on to win, if memory serves me correctly, the 2007 New York marathon.

Three races in 5 weeks, may have been Big Brown's enemy. Anyone who has ever been a runner will concur that recovery time for different athletes varies.
The horse, in addition to the poor ride, seemed out of gas in the far turn. Perhaps there was more energy in the tank, we'll never know.

cj · 06-13-2008, 04:17 PM

The heat did Radlciffe in, she wasn't ready for that.

It is the only marathon she didn't win, and she didn't finish.

delayjf · 06-13-2008, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Put those three together and you've got your 10-15 lengths

Keep in mind the horse was eased on the turn - it would not have been 15 lengths if he'd been allowed to run on.

Shenanigans · 06-13-2008, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I asked a serious question. I would appreciate a serious response.

I'll ask again....Did Big Brown lose at least 10-15 lengths to this WEAK Belmont Stakes field of runners, simply because he wasn't trained correctly?

Yes.

Shenanigans · 06-13-2008, 06:45 PM

As I stated in other posts - BB lost because he ran out of gas. He was not fit for 1 1/2 miles. That is usually the trainers fault.

classhandicapper · 06-13-2008, 07:39 PM

I about as "anti bounce theory" as a person can get. However, it's obvious that horses eventually get worn out by tough races and go off form. The Triple Crown is a demanding series of races. Both TG and RAGs were pretty much waiting for this horse to bounce badly. He didn't do it in the Preakness and I'm not sure if that's the real reason for the Belmont either. That's what they believe. However, he's not the first top notch horse I've seen totally fall apart after an exceptionally demanding race or series of tough races. Some of them either get hurt or just don't fire at all.

I think it's quite possible that the combination of several tough closely spaced races, missing 3 days of training and being trained lightly after that, in combination with a suspect ride/being strangled when rank combined to produce a terrible effort.

Greyfox · 06-13-2008, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

The heat did Radlciffe in, she wasn't ready for that.

It is the only marathon she didn't win, and she didn't finish.

Yes. The heat did Paula in. In her biography though she adds:

"In a training session soon before Athens, a slight niggle in her leg developed into a debilitating pain, causing her leg to seize up completely. As the weeks progressed, the injury didn't improve. If anything, things were getting worse and time was running out. Paula's physical therapist, Gerard Hartman, prescribed a course of anti-inflammatories to help ease the swelling. But as the dosage increased, Paula's stomach started to feel the effects.
Race day soon arrived and although Paula felt drained and nowhere near well enough to race, this was the Olympics - a once-every-four-years opportunity and the biggest stage on which any athlete could compete. She wasn't going to give in without a fight. Choosing not to break away in usual fashion, she sensibly decided to stick with the leading pack. But sure enough, the stomach pains returned and the pain in her leg was very much present. After 20km, the Japanese athlete Mizuki Noguchi made a break and a few others tentatively pushed the pace in order to stay in contention. Visibly in pain, Paula kept giving everything she had in order to get through the race, desperately trying to take in every last drop of her carbohydrate drinks from the drinks-stations along the way. With just 6km to go however, she was running on empty and had nothing left, forced to pull out."

Paula can tell us why she had to drop out. Unfortunately, Big Brown can't.

ezrabrooks · 06-13-2008, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I asked a serious question. I would appreciate a serious response.

I'll ask again....Did Big Brown lose at least 10-15 lengths to this WEAK Belmont Stakes field of runners, simply because he wasn't trained correctly?

Train correctly...or able to train at all? That was BB's problem...not the ride.

tmh · 06-13-2008, 11:27 PM

to all you keyboard trainers. how many of you have ever trained a horse let alone been around the barn to see training and understand it. you all are telling me a 3yo colt runs a mile and a quarter, two weeks later runs a mile and three sixteenths, and in three weeks his not fit to run a mile and a half! i guess that means when a football player misses a week of practice he shouldnt play because he is not fit. fitness had NOTHING to do with this. track condition, jockey error, bad trip maybe, the horse had a bad day.