Belmont Stakes card value plays - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PaceAdvantage · 06-07-2008, 02:56 AM

It's late, and I don't have much time left until I crash for a few hours, and then it's off to Belmont....but I wanted to put these up, because I think they have a decent chance at a price:

1) Light Sentence
3) Seeking No More
4) Vitruvius / Market Psychology
9) Majestic Warrior
10) Stream of Gold
12) Hangingonaprayer

Belmont Stakes Picks:

Big Brown
Icabad Crane (value play)
Casino Drive
Tale of Ekati / Denis of Cork
Macho Again

ddog · 06-07-2008, 03:12 AM

good luck, have a safe trip.

should be an event to remember.

JustRalph · 06-07-2008, 04:13 AM

Belmont Never seen so many races on one card with serious HOT PACE in them.

Race 1
11-1-1a-2

Race 2
6-4-10

Race 3
8-4-5

Race 4
8-11-5-6

Race 5
2-12-7

Race 6
8-7-2

Race 7
4-1-7

Race 8
2-3-4-5

Race 9
5-8-9-6

Race 10
8-7-9-10

Race 11
1-5-9-6-4-7-3-10
What the hell do you do with Casino Drive?????

Race 12
2-12-9-3

Race 13
13-1a-3-7

formula_2002 · 06-07-2008, 06:47 AM

allow these three exacta boxes..worth the mention here.

3rd race 5,10
4th race 5,8
9th race 1,3

JBmadera · 06-07-2008, 07:03 AM

yes, the pace looks to be hot in many races. will be interesting to see how the track plays, esp the turf course (seemed very slow in the first couple of turf races yesterday). Pace plays today:

1 - 11
2 - X
3 - 5
4 - X
5 - 7
6 - 8
7 - 7
8 - X
9 - X
10 - 1
11 - who knows!!
12 - 13
13 - 7

no matter what it will be a great day. I wonder how early twinspires TV will crash. It's only been up for a few days and I'm already hooked on it...

cees with dees · 06-07-2008, 09:38 AM

I can't believe so many people like Seeking No More.
I thought that was my one shrewd selection of the day besides of course, Tale Of Ekati.
The former was nothing but okay when Hushion had her last year but the turf race at Laurel looks special to me and this one should be loafing on the lead unless forced into a pocket trip by Smart Enuf.

I loved Tale Of Ekati's win in the Wood. The comment in the form does him no justice as he raced wide much of the way while not far off a hot pace and wore down War Pass who up till then had been unbeaten when able to secure the inside and the front.
Though a tough trip in the Derby, I don't think it cost him placing wise but Tagg wasn't especially hot at that time like he is now and his charge is working like he's coming up to a huge race and could even secure an easy lead in a race lacking pace.
No arguement from me about Big Brown. I just feel with the multiple hoof issues, the longer he has to run, especially on hard ground, that could make him extremely vulnerable making his 1-9 status truly unappetizing.
I'm really sorry Casino Drive came up lame because I really wanted to play against him more than I did Big Brown.
Good luck to all today. Have fun and make some money.
It should be a really exciting day.
Ben

Boris · 06-07-2008, 11:12 AM

One thought - I'm avoiding Kent D on the undercard. He stunk up the undercard at Pimlico in what I felt was a series of "safe" rides knowing he had bank on BB. Watch his ride on Commendeered in the 1st to test the theory. The horse is good enough to get a check unless the pilot going through the motions waiting for R11.

Boris · 06-07-2008, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boris

One thought - I'm avoiding Kent D on the undercard. He stunk up the undercard at Pimlico in what I felt was a series of "safe" rides knowing he had bank on BB. Watch his ride on Commendeered in the 1st to test the theory. The horse is good enough to get a check unless the pilot going through the motions waiting for R11.

There ya go. The plan is to stay out of trouble. If his horse wins, so be it.

juanepstein · 06-07-2008, 03:43 PM

10th- #10 dancing forever

11th- #2 cordillean ice
........#4 deewanee
.........#9 hangingonaprayer

12th- #3 megapixel
.........#8 benlaya

RichieP · 06-07-2008, 04:24 PM

Race 9:
#6 Fatal Bullet at 8/1 ml assasinates them

juanepstein · 06-07-2008, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by juanepstein

10th- #10 dancing forever

11th- #2 cordillean ice
........#4 deewanee
.........#9 hangingonaprayer

12th- #3 megapixel
.........#8 benlaya

oops!

10th- #10 dancing forever

12th- #2 cordillean ice
........#4 deewanee
.........#9 hangingonaprayer

13th- #3 megapixel
.........#8 benlaya

JustRalph · 06-07-2008, 08:27 PM

x

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Belmont Never seen so many races on one card with serious HOT PACE in them.

Race 1
11-1-1a-2
Belmont Park - Race 1
# Win Place Show
1 $4.30 $2.70 $2.80
11 . $3.60 $3.30
2 . . $9.80
$1.00 Trifecta 1-11-2 $94.25
$1.00 Superfecta 1-11-2-9 $338.50

Race 2
6-4-10
Belmont Park - Race 2
# Win Place Show
7 $6.90 $3.60 $2.60
6 . $3.70 $2.90
10 . . $3.20
$1.00 Exacta 7-6 $10.40
$1.00 Quinella 6-7 $5.30
$1.00 Trifecta 7-6-10 $31.25
$1.00 Superfecta 7-6-10-4 $84.75
$1.00 Double 1/7 $9.50

Race 3
8-4-5
Belmont Park - Race 3
# Win Place Show
4 $10.80 $5.30 $2.70
5 . $6.10 $3.60
8 . . $2.30
$1.00 Exacta 4-5 $25.75
$1.00 Trifecta 4-5-8 $59.25
$1.00 Superfecta 4-5-8-10 $697.00
$1.00 Double 7/4 $25.75
$1.00 Pick-3 1/7/4 3 of 3 $52.75

Race 4
8-11-5-6 Really Stunk this one up
Belmont Park - Race 4
# Win Place Show
4 $5.20 $3.50 $2.80
10 . $9.00 $6.00
2 . . $10.60
$1.00 Exacta 4-10 $27.75
$1.00 Quinella 4-10 $15.10
$1.00 Trifecta 4-10-2 $377.00
$1.00 Superfecta 4-10-2-6 $2359.00
$1.00 Double 4/4 $15.90
$1.00 Pick-3 7/4/4 3 of 3 $61.50

Race 5
2-12-7
Belmont Park - Race 5
# Win Place Show
1 $43.00 $18.20 $11.60
7 . $7.20 $5.80
3 . . $14.00
$1.00 Exacta 1-7 $134.25
$1.00 Trifecta 1-7-3 $1343.00
$1.00 Superfecta 1-7-3-8 $39192.50
$1.00 Double 4/1 $62.75
$1.00 Pick-3 4/4/1 3 of 3 $310.50
$1.00 Pick-4 3,7/4/3,4,9/1 4 of 4 $1180.00

Race 6
8-7-2
Belmont Park - Race 6
# Win Place Show
7 $3.00 $2.40 $2.10
8 . $5.50 $3.30
4 . . $2.90
$1.00 Exacta 7-8 $7.20
$1.00 Trifecta 7-8-4 $23.70
Superfecta Refund $0.00
$1.00 Double 1/7 $48.25
$1.00 Pick-3 4/1/7 3 of 3 $88.50

Race 7
4-1-7
Belmont Park - Race 7 *makes up for the last two

# Win Place Show
4 $21.20 $7.90 $5.80
1 . $4.30 $3.30
6 . . $11.20
$1.00 Exacta 4-1 $47.00
$1.00 Trifecta 4-1-6 $1154.00
$1.00 Superfecta 4-1-6-7 $14454.00
$1.00 Double 7/4 $20.40
$1.00 Pick-3 1/7/4 3 of 3 $386.00

Race 8
2-3-4-5
Belmont Park - Race 8
# Win Place Show
1 $7.50 $3.10 $0.00
2 . $2.40 $0.00
$1.00 Exacta 1-2 $7.00
Trifecta Refund $0.00
$1.00 Double 4/1 $48.25
$1.00 Pick-3 7/4/1 3 of 3 $82.75

Race 9
5-8-9-6
Belmont Park - Race 9 Chart
# Win Place Show
5 $7.20 $4.80 $3.80
3 . $8.60 $6.20
1 . . $9.40
$1.00 Exacta 5-3 $28.75
$1.00 Trifecta 5-3-1 $333.00
$1.00 Superfecta 5-3-1-9 $1899.50
$1.00 Double 1/5 $15.10
$1.00 Pick-3 4/1/5 3 of 3 $150.50

Race 10
8-7-9-10
Belmont Park - Race 10
# Win Place Show
10 $10.40 $4.70 $4.00
5 . $4.20 $3.40
8 . . $6.70
$1.00 Exacta 10-5 $20.40
$1.00 Trifecta 10-5-8 $191.00
$1.00 Grand Slam 1,4,6/1,2,4/1,3,5/10 4 of 4 $46.25
$1.00 Double 5/10 $20.40
$1.00 Pick-3 1/5/10 3 of 3 $85.00

Race 11
1-take out Casino-9-6-4-7-3-10 Take out BBrown and you cash

Belmont Park - Race 11 Chart
# Win Place Show
6 $79.00 $28.00 $14.80
4 . $5.40 $4.10
8 . . $7.60
9 . . $6.20
$1.00 Exacta 6-4 $329.50
$1.00 Trifecta 6-4-9 $1977.00
$1.00 Trifecta 6-4-8 $1851.50
$1.00 Superfecta 6-4-9-8 $23654.50
$1.00 Superfecta 6-4-8-9 $24318.50
$1.00 Double 10/6 $787.00
$1.00 Pick-3 5/10/6 3 of 3 $3237.50
$1.00 Pick-4 1/5/10/6 4 of 4 $17143.50

Race 12
2-12-9-3
Belmont Park - Race 12 Pretty good one
# Win Place Show
12 $25.40 $8.80 $5.20
3 . $3.10 $2.80
2 . . $4.40
$1.00 Exacta 12-3 $32.75
$1.00 Trifecta 12-3-2 $143.25
$1.00 Superfecta 12-3-2-5 $961.00
$1.00 Double 6/1 $81.75
$1.00 Double 6/12 $1110.00
$1.00 Double 6/11 $81.75
$1.00 Pick-3 10/6/1 3 of 3 $603.00
$1.00 Pick-3 10/6/12 3 of 3 $4420.50
$1.00 Pick-3 10/6/11 3 of 3 $603.00

Race 13
13-1a-3-7
Belmont Park - Race 13
# Win Place Show
3 $5.00 $2.80 $2.40
13 . $2.60 $2.70
8 . . $3.50
$1.00 Exacta 3-13 $5.20
$1.00 Trifecta 3-13-8 $23.60
$1.00 Superfecta 3-13-8-4 $99.50
$1.00 Double 12/11 $11.00
$1.00 Double 12/3 $26.75
$1.00 Pick-3 6/1/3 3 of 3 $231.75
$1.00 Pick-3 6/12/3 3 of 3 $3381.50
$1.00 Pick-3 6/1/11 3 of 3 $66.50
$1.00 Pick-3 6/12/11 3 of 3 $935.00
$1.00 Pick-3 6/11/3 3 of 3 $231.75
$1.00 Pick-3 6/11/11 3 of 3 $66.50
$1.00 Pick-4 10/6/12/3 4 of 4 $27570.50

juanepstein · 06-07-2008, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by juanepstein

oops!

10th- #10 dancing forever

12th- #2 cordillean ice
........#4 deewanee
.........#9 hangingonaprayer

13th- #3 megapixel
.........#8 benlaya

10th- #10 dancing forever- 1st- $10.40 $4.70 $4.00

12th- #2 cordillean ice- 3rd- $4.40
........#4 deewanee- out
.........#9 hangingonaprayer- out

4 trainers in the 12th race with 1 or 2 horses on the card today. hennig,bush,serpe and ritvo all entered in the 12th. the one trainer i leave out is ritvo and he wins going away on a big price. brutal!!!

13th- #3 megapixel- 1st- $5.00 $2.80 $2.40
.........#8 benlaya- 3rd- $3.50

PaceAdvantage · 06-07-2008, 10:26 PM

My value plays were valueless...plus they sucked....

lamboguy · 06-08-2008, 12:04 AM

these things happen!