How many blows can the recession goons take before they fall? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2008, 02:33 AM

ISM (Institute for Supply Management)

Quote:

The ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers such indicators as new orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export orders, and import orders.

This numbers was UP slightly for the month of April, beating expectations. Once again, the recession goons recoil in horror....

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/I...52HeadlineHits

DJofSD · 05-02-2008, 02:39 AM

Are you Larry Kudlow's doppelganger?

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2008, 02:48 AM

It's funny, I post all these hard stats, and all I get are smart ass remarks and anecdotes about how tough it is out there.....if anecdotes were all it took, we'd all be better off....

How about one of you guys coming back at me with some stats of your own showing how this country is in the grips of a dire recession, bordering on depression, as some claim?

Yeah, gas prices are much higher, food prices are higher, the real estate market has ground to a halt, and some banks got in way over their heads, but that doesn't mean as a nation, we're in recession. It's an economic slowdown at this point, nothing more.

If many in the media had actually acknowledged all the ECONOMIC GAINS this country had made post 9/11, then perhaps there would be some perspective, and instead of jumping the gun to RECESSION, current economic times would be more fairly assessed.....

DJofSD · 05-02-2008, 03:08 AM

Well, actually Mike, I'm more in your camp than not.

I think there's more of a regional or economic sector pull back, not a national recession that's across the board.

The financials had their correction but now seems to be looking up. IPO activity seems to be picking up. M & A appears to be heating up too.

Housing -- well it is all in the numbers, isn't it? Mortgages are being written off, banks are adjusting their books, mortgage rates seem to still be trending down while some of the builders are starting to look better if the price of their stock is any indicator.

If the Fed is going to now champion the US dollar, it will only help spur growth. Maybe even force some downward pressure on oil prices which should eventually provide some relief at the pump and make all of the politicans look like the fools they all are come election time -- still 180 days away.

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2008, 03:10 AM

The dollar has been going up lately....even in the face of the latest Fed cut....

jballscalls · 05-02-2008, 08:51 AM

I think we should see how many threads you can start that have the words recession goons in the title. 4 of the top 20 do now, go for it!!

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2008, 09:32 AM

You got it! In fact, the jobs report came out an hour ago....

Dave Schwartz · 05-02-2008, 10:41 AM

PA,

WIth all due respect, the "numbers" for the "big boys" look good but the things that matter to most Americans are in a horrible state.

If you are a real estate agent, you might as well look for work at Wal-Mart. If you are a truck driver, you might as well park your truck because you're lucky to break even. If you are in construction, you're either not working or you've taken a 30% reduction in income. I could go on but that is the theme.

Unemployment is very high. Down almost 150,000 jobs in the first three months of this year.

Rank-and-file Americans are being hit hard everywhere.

House values are way down - mine by 40% in 3 years. For the first time in history, Americans owe more on their homes (collectively) than the equity in those homes.

The cost of gasoline is destroying American life. Personally, I spend $50 per week on gas - and I work at home! I can only assume that for some families that number would be double, triple or more.

The cost of food has soared beyond belief. My wife tells me that she has seen many staple food products rise by 30% or more in the last couple of months.

Many Americans are hurting. More so than usual; perhaps more than in the lifetime of 90% of all Americans. To say that things are just rosy "because the numbers look good" would indicate to me that we need some different numbers.

Please note that this is not a political message. It does not end with "vote the democrats in." It is my opinion of the state of the country. Personally, I'd like to see that fixed.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2008, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

To say that things are just rosy "because the numbers look good" would indicate to me that we need some different numbers.

With all due respect, I have NOT ONCE stated on this board that things are "just rosy" nor have I even implied it....this is about the second or third time I've had to correct someone replying to my posts who thinks that I have some sort of belief that the economy is GOOD or ROSY?

Where do you or anyone else come away with the notion that I think this economy is "just rosy?"

The numbers don't look GOOD.

I've stated multiple times that we are in a period of economic slowdown.

What we are NOT in, is a RECESSION. That is my whole point. And one that I have been backing up over and over again with hard stats.

So please, from now on, I hope nobody is under this massive false belief that I think the economic picture for the United States is "just rosy."

chickenhead · 05-02-2008, 11:02 AM

Quote:

If you are a real estate agent, you might as well look for work at Wal-Mart. If you are a truck driver, you might as well park your truck because you're lucky to break even. If you are in construction, you're either not working or you've taken a 30% reduction in income. I could go on but that is the theme.

I know we all get used to, instantly, whatever level of income or assets we have, and any decline is tragic, but a perspective of at least a few years is needed. Every indication is that home prices are still well above historical levels, i.e. where they should be. So what is supposed to be done because people are hurting that they're going down? We can't just ignore that they went up massively in the years before they've now declined. Real estate agents and construction workers profited greatly from that upswing, and now they're gonna get punished on the downswing.

It's not really the decline that is the problem, it's the volatility. The boom/bust cycle is brutal if you're a part of it. The boom is just as much a problem as the bust.

I was in a real tight spot financially a few years ago (when everyone else seemed to be doing well), first time ever unemployed, no assets, piles of debt....so I can definitely sympathize with anyone in that position, it sucks and it's scary. In hindsight is was the best thing that ever happened to me, but that's just because of where I was in life and I was able to make some adjustments. Some people are doing the best they can and can't catch a break.

Dave Schwartz · 05-02-2008, 11:44 AM

PA,

My response was not meant as an attack.

What is a recession anyway? According to the definition, you are abolsutely correct.

However, IMHO this conflict in terminologies is part of the problem. See, American life is very much "in recession." But we have no numbers for that, do we?

Ever ask yourself why that is?

While the power brokers care about America, they do not really care about Americans.

America's leaders are so far disconnected from the people who elect them as to have totally lost any semblance of what goverment for, of, and by the people really means.

What is good for corporate America is not necessarily good for Americans.

So, to continually post threads on this "no recession" theme is misleading to the typical American. It does imply, "Everything is rosy."

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

46zilzal · 05-02-2008, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

America's leaders are so far disconnected from the people who elect them as to have totally lost any semblance of what goverment for, of, and by the people really means.

What is good for corporate America is not necessarily good for Americans.

So, to continually post threads on this "no recession" theme is misleading to the typical American. It does imply, "Everything is rosy."

RIght on the money

Tom · 05-02-2008, 12:00 PM

Compared to most of the world, we have a damn long way to go downhill before we ever have to settle for "rosey."
We still are blessed in this country. And most of us live on Easy Street.

ljb · 05-02-2008, 12:20 PM

So basically what PA is doing here with all his goon threads is arguing about semantics. The fact that the average American, while being much better off then most of the world, is in a world of hurt financially. This fact does not fit in the argument, the argument is how to define a recession. Well I will give you this one PA. Call off the goon squad, the numbers look good even though the real life shows different. Sorta like top beyer finishing up the track.
ps for the second time in history i agree with D Schwartz. we both hope this does not become a habit.

chickenhead · 05-02-2008, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ljb

The fact that the average American, while being much better off then most of the world, is in a world of hurt financially.

The average American is not in a world of hurt, they feel like they're in a world of hurt.

If you had whatever you have now, but happened to be in Africa, you would feel like a Rockefeller. Costco limits customers to 50lbs of rice per visit and the world is ending, while kids all over the world rummage through garbage dumps to try to find shit to eat.