My new Derby horse is Big Brown - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

pktruckdriver · 03-31-2008, 10:34 AM

After the Florida Derby I am now ready to feel we have seen a legitimate Derby Canidate, and he is Big Brown.

Now not seeing Denis of Cork yet this year, I am still holding my judgement, but Big Brown definetly moved past all others for sure. Pyro and War Pass have not shown the Speed #'s to prove to be a Derby Winner, But whatever Big Brown did this weekend, I'm sure they were finally up to par of a Derby Winner.

Just want to know how other's see this scenario playing out.

Patrick

Marshall Bennett · 03-31-2008, 10:43 AM

I like his chances a lot . Doesn't appear to need the perfect trip Pyro may need to win the derby . With a good break he could hang close to the lead and have the finishing speed to do the job . Don't beleive the extra furlong will be an issue .

santanajimi · 03-31-2008, 10:54 AM

It seems pretty obvious that the BIG BROWN bus is loading up. Off that performance, what was not to like?
I would imagine that there are a few scenarios that would make you possibly change your mind though. If War Pass runs some monster race , wire to wire.,this coming weekend.
Well then that would set up a potentiaal speed dual in the Derby. War pass has one way to go, as we most know.
Can BBrown sit off that speed ?
Is there any other speed signed up for the Derby ?
I was super impressed with BB....but i wont make my pick atleast till i see how the next couple of weeks shake out.
After getting burned a few years ago with the scratch of BUDDHA the day of the race...i am a little more patient.

GaryG · 03-31-2008, 11:10 AM

I have watched him closely and he looks as if he can be rated. I don't think he is a one-dimensional front runner. The main issue will be if he can stand the strenuous campaign.

ArlJim78 · 03-31-2008, 11:22 AM

I think we're going to see that lack of foundation/experience will be the undoing of Big Brown in the derby, despite the fact that his Fla Derby was easily the most impressive prep of the year. Its a tall order to progress that far that fast, and his bobbing and weaving down the lane at Gulfstream just might indicate that he needs some time.

Robert Fischer · 03-31-2008, 11:31 AM

Brown is the best of the crop, and probably would have won the Kentucky Derby last saturday.
His feet still have to stay healthy.

I don't really like Pyro as a Derby win candidate although he has just gotten stronger and stronger. Looked a little bit small at first, but Asmussen has him so nice. Really put together perfectly right now. However the same way you might oppose a 6 furlong closer stretching out to go a mile and a sixteenth... Pyro is a closing miler, and he is going to stretch out to 10 furlongs for the derby. I really have doubts about Pyro in the Bluegrass. Pyro is such a good closing miler that he should be relatively close in the derby - he won't be embarrassed.
Right now I like is Big Brown,Pyro,Georgie Boy, and Big Truck...
Denis of Cork is right on the fringe and I am leaning toward outsider - not sure if he is a strong 10 furlong horse or simply another pretty nice mile/16th horse. His final prep will hopefully give some hints. Court Vision is kind of "looming" in the picture, he may well contend if no one like Brown runs off with it / and wouldn't suffer from a strong pace either.

Charlie D · 03-31-2008, 11:37 AM

Unlike last year with horses like Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun,Any Give Saturday. I've not seen a horse yet that makes that me think or gives me the feeling of , yep, Derby winner, Derby 2nd, Derby 3rd.

jonnielu · 03-31-2008, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

After the Florida Derby I am now ready to feel we have seen a legitimate Derby Canidate, and he is Big Brown.

Now not seeing Denis of Cork yet this year, I am still holding my judgement, but Big Brown definetly moved past all others for sure. Pyro and War Pass have not shown the Speed #'s to prove to be a Derby Winner, But whatever Big Brown did this weekend, I'm sure they were finally up to par of a Derby Winner.

Just want to know how other's see this scenario playing out.

Patrick

It's March 31st, if you don't have a good Belmont horse in your scope yet, you probably don't have a Derby winner.

Biggest problem is that Pyro might be a good Belmont horse. But, so might a few others, the Big's, Cool Coal Man, Smooth Air... You can't count WP out yet. He's still hanging on the bottom edge of the list.

jdl

jdl

pktruckdriver · 03-31-2008, 12:05 PM

I am not privy yet to Big Browns beyer number yet, anyone know?

Yes BB must stay healthy, no doubt about it, all of them do. But BB was really the best I've seen so far, overcoming so much in that race and winning in the way that he did, very impressive indeed.

And yes others have yet to run this year, and others have choked too, but none are putting up the Beyer's that I'm sure BB did, thats all I saying.

Smooth Air was very impressive 2nd too, and yes he could improve also, don't leave him out, still think he got rode badly though, he shoulda been closer than he was, but that's just my opinion.

Patrick

Charlie D · 03-31-2008, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I am not privy yet to Big Browns beyer number yet, anyone know?

http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp

Stevie Belmont · 03-31-2008, 12:52 PM

BB went from 11 to number 1 on my Derby list. It was a very strong effort. Distance is no issue.

Kelso · 03-31-2008, 02:40 PM

In the quick shot ESPN2 showed of his Fountain of Youth finish, he appeared to have a Curlin-like configuration ... sort of "strong, like bull." Was I mistaken?

cj · 03-31-2008, 04:40 PM

Beyer of 106.

ny0707ny · 03-31-2008, 06:41 PM

Guys this is the same setup with Curlin. He ran 3 times before the Derby and he lost. Curlin got a 103 speed figure his last race before Derby.

He was too green I said last year to win. This horse is even more green. War Pass will have the edge on him still.

Has any horse won the Derby on 3 starts in his life only?

Semipro · 03-31-2008, 08:07 PM

Has any horse since won from 12 hole since track reconfiguration 2005 so he already bucked history once. Talent supersedes foundation/experience and Big Brown is special. I have thought other horses were special that lost the Derby Holy Bull would be at the top of that list but make no mistake Brown is the horse to beat. Unlike a lot of others I haven't stuck the fork in WP but I did pull it out of the drawer.