Quote:
Originally Posted by 1st time lasix
In another thread {10 reasons why people lose} Jonneilu suggested that understanding that which is significant in pp's is one central key to winning. That may sound fundamental and elementary for experienced players .....but it gets to the core of the handicapping concept. Recognition and extrapolation compared to the odds at hand. All subject to interpetation and one's past experience. What factors today do you recognize that will allow you to correctly forecast if a horse will run true to the past form....exceed expectations.... or dissapoint by running worse than expected in today's contest. Seems like a daunting task with so many variables: Is it the likely pace scenario....is it the class level today...is it the form "cycle'....is it the surface...is it the distance...is it the training angle...is it the "juice" ...is it the post position...the recent workouts.....is it the jock tendancies.... what about a potential "bounce" candidate....a new barn etc etc. You have to find some sort of priority when there is overlap and confict among the factors when seperating contenders. I contend that is merely half of the equation. In a para mutual game with onerous take out.....one then has to compile all the probabilities and properly wager for "overlays" accordingly using the desired pool. The most likely scenario may not be worth a wager. Difficult game!
|
1st time,
That was essentially what the logit thread was all about
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=44786
The weakness of logit type models is that they average out things as precise numbers when in actual races you can better estimate the range a factor is in from past form and the range that the factor has relevance to today's race, rather than use a precise value.
So is a horse fighting fit today could be based on quality and recency of form, its variance and the trainer record? You only need the answer for all factors "relative" to the other horses, not the absolute values and you can say for example that horse is around 75-85% certain of relative fitness. For pace lines you can use the same thinking that there is a say a 50-70% chance of a fast pace and A, B, C will be favoured, 30-50% chance of a medium pace and D,E favoured and 1 - 30% chance of a false pace favouring F, G. Once you think in ranges and relativity the odds line maths fits right in with that.
Difficult game! - that's why skill makes a huge difference to the likelihood of success but again you only have to be better relative to the crowd - not omniscient.