Top 10-Why People Lose

[Niko]

Here's a list I put together for an old book. Anything I missed? Helpful?

Here are some of the reasons people continue to lose:

1. They don’t have a time tested and proven strategy that wins. A winner will take the time to research and test a method to make sure it can show long-term profits. If it looks promising they’ll test their method with real money making small wagers to learn and understand it before betting seriously.

2. If they have a successful method they don’t have the discipline or confidence to follow it. Losers don’t put in the proper time to practice and study their method, thus they lack the confidence to properly use it in the correct situations. As soon as a losing streak takes place they abandon the method searching for the next method that promises them riches. A winner takes the necessary time to learn and understand a method and sticks with it through the inevitable losing cycles.

3. They make too many bad bets: In contrast most but not all winning handicappers limit themselves to a couple prime bets per day per track. Some days they may not bet at all. Again, I can’t stress this enough, if you want to win long-term don’t bet unless you have an edge! There’s plenty of stuff you can do at the track when you’re not betting. Try to get better at visual handicapping. Try a new handicapping approach that’s worked for others and see what you can learn. I can handicap a card and not have any bets for the day. The next day at the same track I might have 4-5 qualifying bets. Don’t determine beforehand how many races you’ll bet, let the bets come to you. There’s always another day.

4. They can’t stand being wrong. It is more important for the majority of people to select and be on the winner of a race than it is to win money. They’ll bet on the favorite even if it’s over bet just to make sure they cash a ticket. They’ll hedge their exotic bets with multiple horses even if it costs them money in the long run. Do the opposite if you want to win. Ron Cox a noted handicapper observed that it wasn’t until he started asking himself how or if he could make money on the race instead of asking who the winner was that he really began winning at the races. Instead of spending all your time trying to figure out who the winner will be, try to figure out if there’s a way you can make money in the race. If you can’t, pass the race and avoid wearing the losers suit.

5. They blame somebody or something else for their losses. When you blame something or somebody other than yourself for your losses you will continue to repeat the same mistakes. If you say you lost because of the jockey, the trainer or the track you will repeat the same mistakes over and over because their actions are outside of your control. If you don’t control your outcome your actions don’t have any consequences. (There are some things out of your control in the short term but we’re talking long term here). Also, if they’re responsible for your losing they’re also responsible for your winning! You never hear someone give credit to the jockey or the trainer after they win a bet. The winning is always due to good handicapping; the losing is almost always blamed on something else. Start taking responsibility for your bets; you’re the one that placed them.

6. They blame bad luck on themselves. Losers will blame themselves for results that are part of the game but beyond their control. If their horse goes 4 wide and loses by a neck or their horse gets trapped and doesn’t get the racing room it needs to win they blame it on bad luck. (But when their horse wins because another horse gets into trouble it’s quickly forgotten.) This is part of the game in the short term. Understand what’s beyond your control and the things that you can control. Pay attention to the long-term results.


7. They don’t cut back during long losing streaks. The most important part of money management is not to let your losses get out of hand. You have to learn how to preserve your betting capital. Most people start making bad decisions when they’ve lost too much money for their comfort. They increase their bet size or start betting on marginal horses trying to make their money back immediately. Why? They can’t accept losing or missing a bet on a winning horse. You’re going to lose races and pass on winners that you could have bet. Accept that and make sure you have a good money management system in place and a large enough bankroll to withstand a losing streak.

8. They’re a slave to their ego. They only focus on how many winners they’ve picked. Remember the goal shouldn’t be how many winners you picked but how much money you have in your pocket at the end of the day, the week and the year. This will change your entire perspective on picking horses and betting.

9. They’re comforted by all the losing horseplayers around them. Losers know how to handle failure because they’ve done it before. Other losing horseplayers share their losses and sympathize with them creating camaraderie between the group. This leads them to more losses in order to be a part of the group (their friends of losers). It may sound silly but the psychology behind being part of a group and having a sense of acceptance and belonging has lead to a lot of irrational behavior in history and in today’s society. Do your own thing and find others who are also dedicated to winning. Stay away from the whiners who blame everything bad that happens to them on someone else.

10. They believe the outcomes are fixed against them. If you’re in the game long enough you will read from time to time about some questionable instances in horse racing. Overall though it’s as honest as about any other sporting event. If you don’t think it is, why are you betting? Horsemen have too much to lose by not running as honest a game as possible.

If you’re currently losing do yourself a favor. Discard any pre-conceived notions you have about handicapping and start over. Throw away all your non-essential handicapping material. I did this and I believe it’s the only reason I’m able to win today. I was filled with information from losing horseplayers and outdated books. If you have some concepts that are winning keep those, but get rid of the rest.

*Some of the above information doesn’t apply to people who play the horses a couple of times a year. If you’re one of those players you can learn from the information in this book but tailor it to your needs. Concentrate on the handicapping sections and have some fun.



Traits of losing handicappers

Here’s the ultimate loser’s profile (do the opposite if you want to win):

• They have a negative outlook and always expect the worst to happen to them.
• They blame others when things go wrong and only accept responsibility when things go right. If the five horse loses it’s the jockeys fault. If the horse wins it’s because it was a good bet.
• Instead of relying on their own opinions they follow the crowd, look for tips and are easily swayed from their own opinions. (Don’t take this to the extreme though. There are different approaches and opinions that are valid. Each of us is not smart enough to know all the answers. Keep an open mind and learn but don’t be swayed from your own opinions if you have solids facts and data to back it up.)
• They are impatient and have little control.
• They need constant action regardless of the outcome.
• They don’t put in the necessary time and study to understand their handicapping method, their own strengths and weaknesses, risk control, money management and the process of winning.
• They always look for a shortcut. Success is found in simplicity only after you have waded through complexity.
• They don’t follow a system or method long enough to see if it works. They’re constantly searching for the magic bullet that will lead to riches.

[cj]

#1 has to be that it is a very tough game to beat and you have to work very, very hard to win. Even if you do that there is no guarantee of success.

[46zilzal]

Amidst all of that is finding venues that pay you to play there. I find that Sartin works a lot of places, but some far better than others: usually smaller, off the beaten path venues.

[Marshall Bennett]

Odds are stacked against you from the beginning . Many go in underestimating those odds and fail to do their homework .

[whyhorseofcourse]

Action bets is why I am a loser.

[njcurveball]

11.) They have no concept of a jockeys value, pinning the blame for their losing bets on them. People walk around the track saying _______ (fill in the blank) NEVER wins when I bet on him. Their own opinions overrule what is actually happening at the track.

[alysheba88]

Another huge reason is being afraid to win

[Grits]

Originally Posted by cj

#1 has to be that it is a very tough game to beat and you have to work very, very hard to win. Even if you do that there is no guarantee of success.

I believe this post. I believe it more than any other I have read at any website in some time and I don't think it can be overemphasized. It is simply stated. It is as honest, and as realistic, as one could possibly convey. It is the truth.

I do not know you CJ, but I know your reputation and skill--through the grapevine. Nor do I know The Little Guy, but again, I know his reputation and skill--not only through the grapevine, but through his internet show at DRF, and the seminars he sits on at Siro's. You both are known as excellent handicappers.

The above post is why I stated recently, I felt this was an extremely difficult way to make a living. Along with noting again, I believe the stress factor must be close, at times . . . and I don't care how good one says they cope or function amid the losing streaks . . . to bordering on pure brutality.

I have come to feel that online--people are not as honest, nor are they as candid regarding their struggles, their beats, their difficulties at showing profits in this game. Its human nature to not reveal our weaknesses. We have no idea how much one another is putting through the windows, and how much is lost--and I'm speaking over long periods of time, not simply a few months, or a couple of years.

Pace Advantage, because there is, more commonly, an advanced level of player found here, has so many threads, so many posts that deal with every aspect of the game, its enabled me to see this. Though, honestly, one here, reads more of the positive aspects--which one must have, which therefore fuels the successes. There are endless how-tos and that's as it should be. One doesn't read as much honesty and admission of the struggles, unless one is brave enough to start a thread entitled, "slumps". A thread I found to be, not only beneficial, but brave even.

When writing about horseplaying, I say the same regarding the many who are authoring books. They write of the time involved, the knowledge needed, the anecdotes. One can achieve according to those writing, success at the windows. Dave Litfin, who seems to me to be one of the, absolute, most honest individuals ever to watch a horse race notes restraint. Selective play. I get the feeling from Litfin that passing, sitting on one's hands is a good decision, more often than not--I see that as a positive.

I'm not convinced that software will help me have more success at this game than the DRF or the Bris past performances. Years ago, I had more success when subscribing and purchasing Jim Mazur's handicapping specific meet tomes.

I have a difficult time determining how a race will unfold--attempting to view all entries as piece of the picture. Granted, the obvious front end runners, the pace horses and the closers are not difficult to discern, still all the books have not improved my skill in this regard.

I could be one of the losers that's weary of it all and throws in the towel, hence this longwinded screed. But it won't be because I didn't damn sure try--even, if only, recreationally.

Maybe it has something to do, as well, with sitting and wagering online, watching races run, here, at my desk.

The love of horses brought me to it. Mornings at Keeneland, actually. Many of them. Loved it so much my former spouse bought me a home there. With that said, I can state with profound assurance, watching horses racing and wagering on them, online, will never, EVER, give me the rush, the joy of watching live racing, whether its Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct, Keeneland, Churchill or anywhere else.

Just gambling is boring. It eats money like rain eats snow. And I like money, and a comfortable living far too much for that.

Thanks for the honesty CJ.

[Niko]

Originally Posted by Grits

I have come to feel that online--people are not as honest, nor are they as candid regarding their struggles, their beats, their difficulties at showing profits in this game. Its human nature to not reveal our weaknesses. We have no idea how much one another is putting through the windows, and how much is lost--and I'm speaking over long periods of time, not simply a few months, or a couple of years.

I believe that some people are afraid that if they expose a losing year etc, they feel like they'll be kicked out of the club. I know I've had my ups and downs.

Originally Posted by Grits

When writing about horseplaying, I say the same regarding the many who are authoring books. They write of the time involved, the knowledge needed, the anecdotes. One can achieve according to those writing, success at the windows. Dave Litfin, who seems to me to be one of the, absolute, most honest individuals ever to watch a horse race notes restraint. Selective play. I get the feeling from Litfin that passing, sitting on one's hands is a good decision, more often than not--I see that as a positive.

I think that for 95...98...99.5% of the people that get involved in horse racing, it's not as easy as authors and some internet posters make it out to be. Otherwise everyone who picked up Pace Makes The Race or similar books would do as well as Dick Schmidt, Brohamar and others. I struggle with paceline selection so I'm included in that group. There was the story floating around of somone who sent in example races with the race results (told by Pizzolla). Pizolla said he honestly didn't think he would have picked the winners. Others replied that it was easy because...There was one catch though. The results charts he sent were made up. It's always easy after the race. I'd love to know what happened behind the scenes with the whole Pirco group. Seems like some people don't like others and there's a lot of stories and some mud that was slung. Brohamars book on pace did help me out though-it's excellent.

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm not convinced that software will help me have more success at this game than the DRF or the Bris past performances. Years ago, I had more success when subscribing and purchasing Jim Mazur's handicapping specific meet tomes.

Some Sheets players and Thorograph players win without computers. It's how good your tools are and how well they match your personality (talent) strengths, not the shape they come in

Originally Posted by Grits

I have a difficult time determining how a race will unfold--attempting to view all entries as piece of the picture. Granted, the obvious front end runners, the pace horses and the closers are not difficult to discern, still all the books have not improved my skill in this regard.

That's because some of the trainers and jockeys read the form too which can change the pace scenario, not too mention a horses condition that day and how they break. Still spotting an EEE, EEEE or no E race shape can be beneficial. Most people are only really good at it after the race. I've never seen Bradshaw in action but I'd like to, it'd probably help me quite a bit. I can't do what he does in his book--a lot of gray in there.

Originally Posted by Grits

I could be one of the losers that's weary of it all and throws in the towel, hence this longwinded screed. But it won't be because I didn't damn sure try--even, if only, recreationally.

Maybe it has something to do, as well, with sitting and wagering online, watching races run, here, at my desk.

The love of horses brought me to it. Mornings at Keeneland, actually. Many of them. Loved it so much my former spouse bought me a home there. With that said, I can state with profound assurance, watching horses racing and wagering on them, online, will never, EVER, give me the rush, the joy of watching live racing, whether its Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct, Keeneland, Churchill or anywhere else.

Just gambling is boring. It eats money like rain eats snow. And I like money, and a comfortable living far too much for that.

Thanks for the honesty CJ.

Well said Grits--very pertinent to the majority of players.

[Niko]

This part of the book addresses two of the posts above and maybe should have been included.

We’ll start with four fundamental truths that apply to winning money at the races.

1) The majority of winning horseplayers are not immediately successful.

Horse racing is a hard game to beat. It usually takes a few years for people to really understand how to bet and be successful. Just as it takes many years for people to master their professions it can take many years to master successfully betting on the horses. I mention this so you don’t become discouraged during the learning phases. It’s only through experience that you’ll learn how to beat this game. Luckily for you, the learning curve can be greatly shortened if you get the right advice early on.

2) You must take responsibility for your results.

You bet on horses because you choose to do so. If you’re losing stop making excuses and blaming your losses on other people. If you blame other people for your losses you have to give them credit for your wins! Ever see that happen? Once you blame your results on factors other than your actions you have given up being able to control your outcomes. If you give up control of your outcomes than you are participating in gambling and a game of chance. It won’t matter what you do because you don’t have control over your results. Reality is different. You do have control over your decisions. If your results are not what you want them to be it’s because you are making bad decisions (or in the short-term, experiencing a bad cycle). You are responsible for placing those bets; no one else did it.

3) The difference between a winning and a losing handicapper is not learning how to pick more winners but knowing how and when to bet. This includes playing to the strengths of the method you choose and your personality.

4) You must believe that you deserve to keep your winnings.

If you don’t believe on an inner level that you deserve your success and the money that goes with it you will subconsciously sabotage yourself. You will find a way to give the money back by playing foolishly or making bad decisions. Ask yourself; do I really
believe deep down in my soul that I deserve to win at the races? If you don’t you’ll find a way to give your money back. If you’re having trouble in this area I would suggest reading some self-help books. The subject is beyond the scope of this manual.

I'm not a writer and I'm not a professional-so take what I say for what it's worth to you

[Dave Schwartz]

This part of the book addresses two of the posts above and maybe should have been included.

What book?

[bigmack]

Most don't realize how much work you have to wield to succeed and even if they did they're unwilling to cough up the effort.

On a side note:

Originally Posted by Grits

Loved it so much my former spouse bought me a home there.

I've never heard former spouse. I had a friend who filed for divorce and would introduce his wife as "my future ex-wife". Push comes to shove, I think I like "my future former spouse".

[1st time lasix]

I have a close friend who is an experienced and highly capable handicapper. He is astute finding closers and pressers who finish well. Particularly in grass races and routes. He is a good guy ...very sharp......but I sometimes don't like being next to him because he gets very upset and frustrated because he doesn't win. At times he gets so upset that he losses his perspective. He isn't loud, rude or demonstative....he just boils up inside and it can cloud his judgement. He might get short with his demeanor. It ruins his attitude. Here is my opinion why he doesn't win......he is too tight with his bankroll $$$. He doesn't play enough contenders with his key horse in the exactas. He doesn't play enough Pick fours. He never plays tris or supers. Can't count how many times he has been right yet failed to cash. He also catches second alot with his win plays. "Scared money" never wins in gambling.

[Turfday]

nm

[prospector]

Originally Posted by whyhorseofcourse

Action bets is why I am a loser.

ditto..
boredom = action bets