Recency of winners - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

mountainman · 02-27-2008, 02:22 PM

Does anyone have a breakdown on impact values based on time elapsed since last raced?

DanG · 02-27-2008, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainman

Does anyone have a breakdown on impact values based on time elapsed since last raced?

Mark;

I’m sure someone is set up to give you that exact query, but in the mean time this HTR newsletter was interesting reading on layoffs.., (Starts on pg-8)

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRReport-MayJun07.pdf

BillW · 02-27-2008, 03:45 PM

From all of 2007 (55731 races):

2-10 days 0.99
11-20 days 1.06
21-28 days 1.11
29-65 days 1.16
66-165 days 0.95
166 up 0.82

mountainman · 02-27-2008, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillW

From all of 2007 (55731 races):

2-10 days 0.99
11-20 days 1.06
21-28 days 1.11
29-65 days 1.16
66-165 days 0.95
166 up 0.82

Can you query your dbase for over and under 45 days, the period at which drf inserts the "layoff" line? (You are already on my xmas list.)

Jeff P · 02-27-2008, 04:33 PM

Mark, Here's what I have at "The Mountain" (with first time starters removed) for the handful of days I've downloaded so far this year:

Code:

     Data Window Settings:
     Divisor = 999      Odds Cap: None
     Filters Applied: LT0

     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) 
     From Index File: C:\2008\Q1_2008\pL_profile.txt)
     Track: MNR 

     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals     591.80    611.00    582.40
     Bet              -766.00   -766.00   -766.00
     Gain             -174.20   -155.00   -183.60

     Wins                  49        95       136
     Plays                383       383       383
     PCT                .1279     .2480     .3551

     ROI               0.7726    0.7977    0.7603
     Avg Mut            12.08      6.43      4.28

Code:

By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

>=Min       <Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact
 -999          0      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
    0          5      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
    5         10     -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000   0.0000
   10         15     -7.00     12.00    0.4167      1      6   .1667   1.3027
   15         20     -3.60     10.00    0.6400      1      5   .2000   1.5633
   20         25     -9.20     20.00    0.5400      1     10   .1000   0.7816
   25         30    -25.80     42.00    0.3857      2     21   .0952   0.7444
   30         35      4.40     82.00    1.0537      9     41   .2195   1.7158
   35         40    -27.00     52.00    0.4808      3     26   .1154   0.9019
   40         45    -66.80    114.00    0.4140      9     57   .1579   1.2342

   45         50     66.00    128.00    1.5156      7     64   .1094   0.8549
   50         55    -44.40     58.00    0.2345      3     29   .1034   0.8086
   55         60     56.80    100.00    1.5680      8     50   .1600   1.2506
   60         65    -12.80     32.00    0.6000      3     16   .1875   1.4656
   65         70    -30.00     30.00    0.0000      0     15   .0000   0.0000
   70         75    -14.00     14.00    0.0000      0      7   .0000   0.0000
   75         80    -17.20     24.00    0.2833      1     12   .0833   0.6514
   80         85    -10.00     10.00    0.0000      0      5   .0000   0.0000
   85         90     -7.60     12.00    0.3667      1      6   .1667   1.3027
   90     999999    -22.00     22.00    0.0000      0     11   .0000   0.0000

And here's what I have for all tracks downloaded (again, with first time starters removed) for calendar year 2007:

Code:

     Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Filters Applied: LT0

     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) 
     From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Complete_History_07.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals  326776.50 326197.90 324327.90
     Bet           -423434.00-423434.00-423434.00
     Gain           -96657.50 -97236.10 -99106.10

     Wins               26782     53281     78438
     Plays             211717    211717    211717
     PCT                .1265     .2517     .3705

     ROI               0.7717    0.7704    0.7659
     Avg Mut            12.20      6.12      4.13

Code:

By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

>=Min       <Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact
 -999          0      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
    0          5   -159.60    302.00    0.4715     14    151   .0927   0.7329
    5         10  -3632.30  15840.00    0.7707    925   7920   .1168   0.9233
   10         15 -15403.10  59838.00    0.7426   3561  29919   .1190   0.9409
   15         20 -16583.60  73542.00    0.7745   4624  36771   .1258   0.9941
   20         25 -18238.50  75452.00    0.7583   4836  37726   .1282   1.0133
   25         30 -11754.60  52000.00    0.7740   3447  26000   .1326   1.0480
   30         35  -6642.70  29788.00    0.7770   2025  14894   .1360   1.0748
   35         40  -5382.40  23826.00    0.7741   1664  11913   .1397   1.1042
   40         45  -2744.40  17296.00    0.8413   1198   8648   .1385   1.0951

   45         50  -1611.20  10774.00    0.8505    756   5387   .1403   1.1094
   50         55  -1425.50   6890.00    0.7931    444   3445   .1289   1.0188
   55         60   -952.40   6432.00    0.8519    446   3216   .1387   1.0963
   60         65   -908.00   4798.00    0.8108    322   2399   .1342   1.0611
   65         70    -83.70   3268.00    0.9744    217   1634   .1328   1.0498
   70         75   -779.70   2870.00    0.7283    175   1435   .1220   0.9640
   75         80   -524.90   2506.00    0.7905    150   1253   .1197   0.9464
   80         85   -619.90   2120.00    0.7076    132   1060   .1245   0.9844
   85         90   -669.20   1518.00    0.5592     86    759   .1133   0.8957
   90     999999  -8541.80  34374.00    0.7515   1760  17187   .1024   0.8095

-jp

.

BillW · 02-27-2008, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillW

From all of 2007 (55731 races):

2-10 days 0.99
11-20 days 1.06
21-28 days 1.11
29-65 days 1.16
66-165 days 0.95
166 up 0.82

Mark,

I just noticed that these numbers look a bit fishy (not from my software so I can't confirm). They do look like they are in proper proportion (i.e. the 1.11 is higher than the 1.06) but maybe offset high by 0.05 or maybe 0.06.

BIG RED · 02-27-2008, 05:29 PM

" Recency of winners "

Not enough, never is.....correct Sir?

Key word is winners, not recency. JMO