Recession? Where?

[PaceAdvantage]

Have they changed the definition of recession? The traditional definition includes the following:

• TWO consecutive quarters of NEGATIVE real GDP growth...we haven't even come remotely close to this lately.....
• HIGH rates of unemployment.....NOPE....not even CLOSE....
• HIGH rates of interest.....NOPE....again....interest rates are quite low
• HIGH inflation.....we're starting to creep up a tiny bit, but again, nothing anywhere near worrying about yet.....

So, I ask....where is this supposed recession that the US economy is falling into (hell, some are already using the big D word...forget recession, they've got us into a depression already....I guess they have to hurry up if they want to push the DEPRESSION thing on Bush before he's out the door).

OK, all you big bad armchair economists out there...let me have it....come at me with the "new recession paradigm" or the "US Gov't lies about the economic stats coming out of Washington" or any other BS you care to hurl for a while....

[bigmack]

As much as I'd like to believe otherwise, it's not good at all.

We’re over leveraged, both personally and institutionally. Credit card/mortgage debt is rotten. Really rotten.

Banks has little interest in lending as they’re fighting crunches of their own.

Foreign bailouts abound. Citigroup:20Bil - Merrill Lynch:15Bil - Morgan Stanley:5Bil....And that's just a start of their problems.

Subprime mortgage losses will now brace for the next wave from Credit Default Swaps, which will bring another 300Bil in losses. We’ll soon hear from the banking industry of HUGE losses throughout.

Housing values have declined steadily over the last year. Overall, there is little money for lending and the effect will be felt throughout the country. Not to mention, almost a trillion borrowed for consumer goods coming in from abroad.

Hold onto your lugnuts. It might be a bumpy ride for a spell.

[rrpic6]

Without going too deep in each instance:

Mortgage Defaults and Delinquincies.
House values plummeting. Example: Cleveland's value is 30% of what is was in 2000.
Trade deficit soaring with China.
Outsourcing of jobs to China. China's economy booming, therefore competing with USA for foreign oil, driving prices higher.
Value of the dollar steadily decreasing. In 2004: American $1.00 = Canadian $1.35. 2008: Both are of equal value.
Value of Gold quadruples in 6 years.
Citigroup, Chase, Morgan Stanley have losses close to 30 billion.
Bush goes to Saudi Arabia to beg for lower oil prices.
Bush plans to give American tax payers $800 apiece.

RR

P.S. My stock tip...invest in canvass, tent cities making a revival, and not just for revivals.

[Marshall Bennett]

Bad Credit , Poor Credit , Bad Loans , More Bad Loans ..... Oh well , Blame it on Bush !! Blame it on Bush !!

This is a inevitable recession with a cause unlike anything since 1929 - never in recent times have banks been so totally reckless with other people's funds. A huge amount of supposed GDP is just worthless churning of debt, not product. The normal stats inevitably lag in these situations - it's more like an automobile that is going along just fine until the sump hits a boulder and all the oil drains out and wrecks the engine.
Finance pays for future investments and payroll until bills are paid, even in the best run companies. Banks are calling in any loans they can to get cash to survive. Just one UK bank is requiring $56,000,000,000 loan from Government just to keep going.
Every $1 a bank loses means $10 cannot be churned in loans.
With the oil of finance draining to a trickle, the good are sadly going down with the bad.

[sammy the sage]

"HIGH inflation.....we're starting to creep up a tiny bit, but again, nothing anywhere near worrying about yet."

Hate to call you out here P.A...but do you or your wife shop for food?

If she does...ask how much milk & bread have gone up in the last year....MORE THAN A TINY BIT!

[Lefty]

sammy, it's been reported that milk and bread prices have gone up as a DIRECT result of grain being used to produce Ethanol. So be careful what you wish for concerning alternative energies because theres always a price to pay elsewhere.

[sammy the sage]

By the way P.A....since you're after HISTORICAL proof....Most if not all recessions are documented...6 month's to a year AFTER THE FACT...that INDEED a recession is going on!

LEFTY...the fact of the matter...IT DOESN'T MATTER WHY the price of those items went up...they've gone up MORE THAN A LITTLE BIT is the point.

Could go w/just about anything else for that matter...from home-owner's or health insurance to fertilizer...Car's will be going down of course...lol's!

[Lefty]

sammy, it does matter why? With everyone going around trying to blame Bush for any economic downturn without giving him credit in the first place it does matter.

[rrpic6]

Check out todays' Europe and Asia Stock Markets. Losses averaging 5% in response to America's economic woes.

RR

[sammy the sage]

WTF...I NEVER mentioned BUSH....

P.A. says there is no recession...nor one coming...I say that we are already at the beggining of one.

THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL DISCUSSION!

It's a financial one...HELLO

[46zilzal]

Many things happen that happen at the same time don't necessarily mean cause and effect. COINCIDENTAL more likely.

I feel sorry for all those people duped into debt.

[lamboguy]

if you had only 2 bad quarters, i would be the happiest guy in the world. ithink you will see 20 bad qurters if not alot more in this one.

as far as the president and congress, democrat or republican or whatever, these are the guys that got us into this problem, they will never be the solution to it!

[Marshall Bennett]

If we happened to get blindsided by an asteroid Bush would get blamed for it . Not a lot different than the wild fires or Katrina . Its like ... " Hey man , you knew there was always a chance of an asteroid hitting us and you did nothing ".

[lamboguy]

isn't it time we stop blaming bush for everything. even if he is the likely culprit, along with his cohorts in congress. why not try to work together and get out of this mess instead of calling each other names and spiting each other.