6fs & SPEED etc

[Derek2U]

In keeping with many discussions here, let me ask this BASIC
question: In 6f races, does position matter across almost ALL
tracks? Are any tracks known for winning closers when FAST or
SLOPPY?

[Fastracehorse]

Santa Anita:

If the best speed horse can get a reasonable lead at SA the last 2 days then they will win. Providing of course, the speed horse has the ability to compete vs. the foes he is running against.

That is the easiest way to pick winners. Speed on a speed favoring track. Of course not all surfaces are so biased. I was a bit surprised to see SA play this way so early in the meet. Or should I have been surprised??

Post pos'n: If U are a contender, and U want the lead, but can't get it, U're chances of winning are severly compromised. So post is very important.

Every track is different. Evaluate a race based on ability and where U expect the horse to be at the first call. If the bias favours U're horse's style-try it.

fffastt

[cj]

I don't know of any DIRT track where I would consistently favor closers at any distance, especially 6f. Closers win by default most times. Find me a race with a closer as the favorite, and I'll show you a good betting oppurtunity. Check out the selections thread about FG feature on Sunday, classic example.

CJ

[andicap]

Interesting thread. Two observations from my experience:

1. About eight years ago when I was using PA's old software (it modeled tracks based on the Sartin velocity figs. It worked well, but the manual entry, ugh!), I noticed during the first two weeks of the Saratoga meet that horses with the best early speed would win at long prices. But many of them also finished off the board. That gets back to the point about if they don't get to the lead, etc.
THE POINT IS: many people would look at the results in terms of win % and say, 'there's no bias, lots of off the pace horses are winning in sprints.'
That was true, but enough 'E" horses were winning at nice prices so that it was worth betting the top two EP horses (under certain conditions of course).
Still if you looked at the charts, you'd say there was no bias because of 6 sprints maybe 3 would be wire jobs, another one would come from 2 lengths back and the other two would be stalkers or closers. But 6 races $4 a race = $24 bet, the returns would be much higher than that.

2. Post position is critical because jocks on the rail don't have the luxury of waiting to see what the horses inside of them do before shooting for the lead or hanging back. That's why the E/P horses do so well. They don't need the lead and a jock in the 6th PP can look at a horse inside of him and if no one's going he can shoot for the lead -- or avoid a duel and possibly press in 3rd.
Of course you can't do this with an "E" horse because they need the lead.

[delayjf]

Derek,
Delmar can produce a closers bias at times. When this happens the prices are often sky high as Californian are so attunded to speed. Obviously, this bias is more pronounced in routes.